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Monday, October 26, 2020

NBA Post-Bubble offseason thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA but we should have enough posters to fill out a mock draft regardless.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 26, 2020 at 07:08 PM | 1980 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mock draft, nba, off-topic

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   101. jmurph Posted: October 28, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5986177)
Odds are I'll download at least one of them myself, so I'm not blameless here, but PODCASTS was the first thing I thought of when I read the news. So many podcasts!

Oh same, I'll do it too. Something interesting pre-draft/free agency, I'll take it.
   102. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5986184)
rumor! Charlotte wants Wiseman and would trade up to ensure it.
That's not a shock - and (obviously) both Minny and GS might be willing to help them out, depending on what other offers they're getting for their picks.
   103. . . . . . . Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5986186)
But truly the highlight of that draft night, much like most other drafts, is zop just being wildly full of ####, but aggressively so. Truly the gift that keeps on giving (like three times per year).


Yeah I was aggressively wrong on Luka and I did call everyone here racist.
   104. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:36 PM (#5986189)
Yes, I am agreeing with you.

I agree with your agreement.
   105. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5986191)
Is Charlotte REALLY going to trade up to draft a center in 2020? Or are people just bored and coming up with things? I do understand the LOL Hornetz angle, so I know it's possible.
   106. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5986193)
For the low, low price of the #3 and their 2021 first, protected similarly to the Wolves pick, the Hornets can draft Wiseman 1st overall.
   107. aberg Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:51 PM (#5986195)
For the low, low price of the #3 and their 2021 first, protected similarly to the Wolves pick, the Hornets can draft Wiseman 1st overall.


Alternately, I would accept #3 and PJ Washington. Probably also #3 and Bridges. We can also talk about Rozier.
   108. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5986199)
Culver and Spellman, the #1 and the #17 for Bridges, Washington, the #3, and next year's #1, protected like the Wolves pick.
   109. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5986204)
Really a shame that Wiggins didn't go to Carolina. It would make the memes a lot better.

I think this framework works:

CLT gets:
Andrew Wiggins
Ky Bowman
#2 overall

GSW gets:
Bismack Biyombo
Malik monk
Miles Bridges
#32 overall
   110. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 28, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5986206)
Really a shame that Wiggins didn't go to Carolina. It would make the memes a lot better.
#maplejordan
   111. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5986212)
I'm not sure if GS is looking for that kind of long run salary relief versus adding a better current player. Meaning - I don't know what GS ownership wants right now.
--
I'd previously seen #3 + Bridges = higher pick floated as an idea.
   112. aberg Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5986219)
I wonder if the Wolves could somehow finagle Wily Hernangomez into this deal to corner the Hernangomii market.
   113. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5986220)
I'm not sure if GS is looking for that kind of long run salary relief versus adding a better current player. Meaning - I don't know what GS ownership wants right now.


I don't know either! I thought that Biyombo made GSW better this year, and Malik Monk + Bridges added upside for the future, but I have no idea what they want.

I wonder if the Wolves could somehow finagle Wily Hernangomez into this deal to corner the Hernangomii market.


If you're going to have a Hernangomez, don't you want the Wiliest one?
   114. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5986234)
I can see why the Hornets would want Wiseman. Their core going forward is Bridges, PJ Washington, Devontay Graham and they need someone with star potential. Maybe no big men fit that description anymore, but Wiseman has as good a chance as anyone.

Just looking at the Hornets contracts, I see two possible assets:
-Batum as an expiring ($27 million player option)
-Terry Rozier, who has two years left, but his salary declines slightly each year ($18 this year, $17 next year), and is not a star, but is actually somewhat useful on the court.

As their fake GM, I would also look to deal Malik Monk. A 6'3" shooting guard isn't useful to Charlotte, but maybe a playoff team wants him to play a Jason Terry-lite role as their 9th man.
   115. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5986236)
Willy is an FA and might be getable at the minimum. (He doesn't guard anybody. Also, that's a good add for some teams at that possible price - he can score and rebound in the Kanter vein and I'm not convinced that he couldn't develop a hair more (especially as a shooter) in a different environment.)
I don't know that Biyombo helps anybody?
   116. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5986237)
I've been the Lakers BTF GM every year since we started this exercise. Would another LA fan like to take them this year?
   117. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5986241)
If I'm reading the contract chart right, Biyombo is a free agent.
   118. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5986242)
I don't know that Biyombo helps anybody?


Really? I think he would be the best non-Draymond big on GSW. He's pretty overpaid, but he's an expiring and he's good ballast for Wiggins.

Edit: oops re: FA. I used the trade machine.
   119. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5986243)
As their fake GM, I would also look to deal Malik Monk. A 6'3" shooting guard isn't useful to Charlotte, but maybe a playoff team wants him to play a Jason Terry-lite role as their 9th man.


You left out the part where he's a 6'3" shooting guard ... who has shot 32% from 3 over his career and if anything seems to be getting worse.

I liked Monk coming out of college as a shooter. I admittedly haven't watched much Bobcat basketball over the last three years, but what happened there?

Biyombo is bad. He has some of the worst hands I've ever seen. He is terrible at team defense. He's just bad.
   120. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5986244)
I guess I'm alone here at the Biyombo Trailer Park.
   121. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5986245)
Biyombo has dreadful hands, yeah. Made of granite.
   122. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5986246)
Incidentally, the fake Magic, after two very exciting fake offseasons, are unlikely to make any major moves this offseason. We are, by virtue of being capped out but (maybe?) not bad enough to get a good pick, all in on shocking improvement from Fultz. Yeah, it's not a greeeeat place to be, but I don't think this team has enough flexibility to meaningfully remake it at this point, especially with Isaac out for the year. I mean, if someone really wants Vucevic at 3/72 and/or Terrence Ross at 3/38, sure, we could go hard into the tank, but absent that we're just playing it out. (GSW, do you want Vucevic for Wiggins plus assets?)

We'll probably look to sign a veteran PG with the MLE. Wouldn't necessarily mind picking up another second as we have some roster space, although we don't have a lot to offer. We'll see who is on the board at our picks.

I need his agent to tell us whether Fournier is picking up his $17M p-opt? I'll assume yes due to general leaguewide uncertainty.
   123. aberg Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5986251)
Has anyone watched Bridges enough as a pro to evaluate his defense? He seemed to have good instincts in college, albeit pretty much always guarding bigger, slower guys. It seems like Charlotte has mostly played him as a wing rather than a smaller frontcourt player and his defensive numbers are not very good. He has a fairly unique NBA body- listed a 6'6, 225; definitely more of a bowling ball than most wings his height. It makes me wonder if he'd be better just playing a PJ Tucker style frontcourt role where he guards bigs or big wings and spots up offensively.
   124. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5986253)
Fournier - that sounds right to me, AS.
IIRC, you may want to shave a few bucks off your payroll.
---
I always miss Bridges when I check out CHA, dunno how. BB-index metrics shouldn't be taken as gospel, but they prefer his D on the perimeter to how he does in the interior, fwiw. BB-ref has him as a 3/4, but Narsu defensive versatility #s has him guarding 2s more than 4s (so, as you say, true wing).
   125. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5986255)
I need his agent to tell us whether Fournier is picking up his $17M p-opt? I'll assume yes due to general leaguewide uncertainty.


I think we should assume yes. His market is pretty down across the league.
   126. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5986259)
As their fake GM, I would also look to deal Malik Monk. A 6'3" shooting guard isn't useful to Charlotte, but maybe a playoff team wants him to play a Jason Terry-lite role as their 9th man.
the sixers have 4 2nd round picks; i wouldn't mind sending #58 for monk and a future #2.
   127. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5986260)
And the salary you'd send out to make it work? Would that be Mike Scott?
   128. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5986263)
IIRC, you may want to shave a few bucks off your payroll.


We're at 122M assuming Fournier opts in (and James Ennis also for $2M), not getting below the cap. The tax is projected at $139M, so even with an MLE PG and a mid-first, I think we're going to be fine. Maybe I missed something? [Of course the tax figure could change.]
   129. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 05:00 PM (#5986264)
Silas to coach the Rockets.
   130. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5986266)
AS - does that count Okeke? (granted, only 2.86m I think). Regardless, you're fine if the tax does come in at 139 (I think it will too?) but if that drops to ... 132?
Anyway, you're on top of it.
   131. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5986267)
Stephen Silas, not Paul, as I intially assumed.

Dallas assistant, presumably willing to work cheap.
   132. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5986268)
sorry, yeah!
   133. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 28, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5986269)
Ahhh I forgot about Okeke. Thanks for the reminder. Makes it close, and yeah if the line drops we might have to do some minorly creative bookkeeping.
   134. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 28, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5986270)
And the salary you'd send out to make it work? Would that be Mike Scott?
sure.
   135. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 06:13 PM (#5986294)
I can't imagine that #58 and Mike Scott for Malik Monk and a future 2nd is a real trade proposal.
   136. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5986309)
I presumed it was made in jest and was playing along.

Where’s stevegamer? He’s the likely Philly GM, no?
   137. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 07:52 PM (#5986311)
Shams is reporting that Morey to Philly is a done deal, btw. 5 year deal, $$ not disclosed.
   138. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5986317)
I listened to the Game Theory podcast with Sam Vecenie and Seth Partnow and they talked about how the Warriors should trade that #2 pick, but can't come up with anyone that would work. I thunk and thunk and couldn't come up with any good ones, either. Any good ones get thrown around here that I've missed?
   139. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:09 PM (#5986319)
You'd think the #2, the trade exception, and some weird handful of salaries could get you somewhere?
   140. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5986321)
I imagine one option would be a sign and trade of gallo? (That should not cost the 2 and the exception)
Edit: never mind, that’s not a legal option
Edit to the edit: they could do a deal for him with the exception, granted it would be after the draft
The original editor has been sacked.
   141. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5986322)
You'd think the #2, the trade exception, and some weird handful of salaries could get you somewhere?


I agree, but actually coming up with plausible names was tough.
   142. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:24 PM (#5986323)
Who would help, and might be available?
   143. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:30 PM (#5986325)
140 - Nope, not legal - they would be over the apron.
   144. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:35 PM (#5986326)
I listened to the Game Theory podcast with Sam Vecenie and Seth Partnow and they talked about how the Warriors should trade that #2 pick, but can't come up with anyone that would work. I thunk and thunk and couldn't come up with any good ones, either. Any good ones get thrown around here that I've missed?
tharris.
   145. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:46 PM (#5986327)
Covington is a possibility, if Houston wanted to rebuild. Don’t think they do.
If Atlanta wasn’t trying to make the playoffs - Capela would be interesting.
Orlando might be willing to move off Fournier, who could fit in well with GS’s rotation.
Nance (who I like) would probably be a really nice add.
Schroeder? Thad Young? A wild move would be Bledsoe.
   146. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:47 PM (#5986328)
I listened to the Game Theory podcast with Sam Vecenie and Seth Partnow and they talked about how the Warriors should trade that #2 pick, but can't come up with anyone that would work. I thunk and thunk and couldn't come up with any good ones, either. Any good ones get thrown around here that I've missed?
Kyle Kuzma would be perfect for that offense. Call me.
   147. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 08:51 PM (#5986329)
Who would help, and might be available?


Just to be untethered to reality ...

Guys that would help, and at least in theory could be available:
Paul George--probably not available
Khris Middleton--probably not available
Al Horford?--not worth the #2, hard to see how to do a deal
Mikal Bridges--not worth the 2, don't know why Phoenix would do it
Joe Ingles--not worth the 2, Utah might do it for something, hard to see what
Bjelica--not worth the 2, fulfills Wiggins destiny of playing for the KANGZ
Davis Bertans in a S&T--not sure what he's worth or if he helps really
   148. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 09:35 PM (#5986336)
Boring reality part:
Can’t use the exception in a sign and trade unless the deal ends in them below the apron; won’t happen here + salary obviously must not exceed the exception (which eliminates some interesting names)

Fournier seems like the easiest one to do; Orlando might not ask for much in that deal
   149. smileyy Posted: October 28, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5986337)
I think I take Wiseman at #1. He's a risk and also the only one who I think has star potential.
   150. smileyy Posted: October 28, 2020 at 09:38 PM (#5986338)
Also prepared to have this posted in my face in two years.
   151. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 09:51 PM (#5986340)
Boring reality part:
Can’t use the exception in a sign and trade unless the deal ends in them below the apron; won’t happen here + salary obviously must not exceed the exception (which eliminates some interesting names)


So the valuation doesn't work, but couldn't you do a Wiggins + #2 for Bertans + ??? in a S&T?
   152. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:16 PM (#5986343)
I was just talking about the TE - Wiggins makes so much that you could potentially do a lot there. Any Bertans deal results in a hard cap, though.
   153. kubiwan Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:18 PM (#5986346)
I think Jeannie is great


I think this illustrates the difficulty in making even the most rudimentary evaluation of owners. If we use the 2013-14 season as the first year where she was in charge (Dr. Buss died in February 2013), she presided over 6 straight losing, non-playoff teams (in their previous 65 years, the Lakers had missed the playoffs a total of 5 times!). 4 of the 5 worst seasons by winning percentage in franchise history came under her watch (with the 5th being so long ago they were still in Minneapolis). The team is nearly 150 games below .500 since she took over.

And then.....she won a title. Does that completely override everything that came before ("yes" is a possible valid answer...flags do fly forever!)? How much blame does she bear for the six years of famine? How much credit does she get for the title? Did she set it up with her vision, her building of the corporate culture...or did she just get lucky that LeBron decided he WAS coming to LA regardless of how crappy things were being run? I think anyone that claims to know those answers for certain is just fooling themselves.
   154. tshipman Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:25 PM (#5986349)
I think this illustrates the difficulty in making even the most rudimentary evaluation of owners. If we use the 2013-14 season as the first year where she was in charge (Dr. Buss died in February 2013), she presided over 6 straight losing, non-playoff teams (in their previous 65 years, the Lakers had missed the playoffs a total of 5 times!). 4 of the 5 worst seasons by winning percentage in franchise history came under her watch (with the 5th being so long ago they were still in Minneapolis). The team is nearly 150 games below .500 since she took over.


Jeanie only took over in 2017.
   155. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:27 PM (#5986351)
153: Yup. (accounting for 154)
I have positive things to say about Jeannie, certainly relative to Jim!, but she also deserve demerits for how some of her personal relationships may have hurt basketball ops over time.
Regardless, I don’t really know.
   156. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5986352)
morey and rivers will get the headlines, rightfully, but rivers' coaching staff already includes dave joergerer and sam cassell.

there are a lot of experienced basketball professionals being brought into philly right now. it's not a bad thing.
   157. aberg Posted: October 28, 2020 at 11:21 PM (#5986363)
Hiring Morey seems like Philly admitted that everything after dumping Hinkie was a mistake.
   158. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 28, 2020 at 11:32 PM (#5986364)
It does
   159. DCA Posted: October 28, 2020 at 11:40 PM (#5986365)
(GSW, do you want Vucevic for Wiggins plus assets?)

It seems unfair to discuss mock trades with half of the teams still unassigned. But yes, yes I do. Feel free to propose. Is swapping 2020 firsts enough?

More generally, GSW have someone we would like to take at #2, but nevertheless would prefer to trade down in the lottery if we can get good value by doing so (someone to fit into the Iggy exception, or a 2021 first).

Anyone on the roster except Curry, Klay, Dray, and Damion Lee is available in trade as salary filler to facilitate a deal. Am not interested in giving up draft capital to offload Wiggins's salary.


   160. kubiwan Posted: October 29, 2020 at 12:02 AM (#5986368)
Jeanie only took over in 2017


Is that correct? My understanding is that she took the Board of Governors seat upon Dr. Buss’s death and thus was the one formally in charge. If I am wrong, who was in charge for those four years?
   161. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 12:12 AM (#5986369)
Jim Buss, her brother. There was a whole lawsuit.
   162. Rally Posted: October 29, 2020 at 08:10 AM (#5986382)
Jeannie's only fault is that she gave her weak, stupid brother those 4 years to run basketball operations. That will not happen again after she arranged a boat trip for him with Al Neri.
   163. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 29, 2020 at 08:46 AM (#5986387)
I’m far less attuned to the Lakers than many of you...
What about her handling of the Magic situation or Rambis’s influence?

I like Jeannie but I’m not sure how much credit she’s getting for not being Jim or for running the team that LBJ and Davis already wanted to play for.
   164. jmurph Posted: October 29, 2020 at 08:52 AM (#5986389)
I think it's a little overly deterministic to just decide teams who win automatically have great owners, and vice versa. And specifically in LA, surely LeBron and Rich Paul deserve some credit there.

EDIT: In fairness I guess no one here is doing that; I think tship listed Ballmer, who hasn't won yet (and I would agree with that assessment).
   165. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 29, 2020 at 09:49 AM (#5986397)
He doesn't make sense for my Hawks, but does anyone here like Udoka Azubuike in the late second? He's an absolute dinosaur - strictly a drop-5 defense and rebounding specialist who'll get putbacks and dunk on cuts. But, man, he can really do those things.
   166. BaseballObscura Posted: October 29, 2020 at 09:52 AM (#5986399)
Raptors ownership, the Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment conglomerate, has done a nice job of not meddling and letting Masai Ujiri basically develop the Raptors in his image and create a winning culture, basically footing the bill but giving a lot of leeway and not meddling.

Heck, they've even managed to make the Leafs relevant (basically 10+ of embarrassment), though Mike Babcock proved to be no Ujiri when it came to developing a winning culture. I can't stand the Leafs, but they have a lot of good young players and for all the handwringing in Canadian sports media about their daily trials, they generally have a good core and are on the cusp of contention.

In MLS, Toronto FC is also one of the strongest clubs and won the MLS cup in 2017 and made the finals in 2019.

As far as ownership groups go, I would say they have been fairly impressive in recent years.
   167. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 29, 2020 at 09:59 AM (#5986403)
MLSE has spent, where necessary, and doesn't seem to mess around with their team management groups, so yeah, I can see it.

The "good/bad ownership" judgement is weird, though -- what about Glen Taylor? The Wolves have been an utter catastrophe save for the KG years, but the Lynx are super successful.
   168. DCA Posted: October 29, 2020 at 10:05 AM (#5986406)
He doesn't make sense for my Hawks, but does anyone here like Udoka Azubuike in the late second?

I can see that.
   169. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5986437)
He doesn't make sense for my Hawks, but does anyone here like Udoka Azubuike in the late second?


Is he related to Kelenna?

I think he's fine. Even just a few years ago, I think he'd be a first rounder. The one caution I'd have would be his truly awful turnover rate. For a guy who basically only dunks, how does he average so many turnovers?

He's definitely a backup NBA big, so you can take that any time in the second.
   170. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 29, 2020 at 12:44 PM (#5986444)
Yeah I think for ownership it's really hard to evaluate. Like, Raptors ownership hired Ujiri and didn't meddle for a long time, Wizards ownership hired Grunfeld and didn't meddle for a long time. Is that because Raptors ownership is better, or is it that both ownership groups are checked out and Toronto happened to hire the right person? Are the more churny ownership groups, like Philly, smart for moving on quickly to try to find the best person, or are they thrashing and stupid?

Except for, like, Donald Sterling, it's hard for me to really say that any ownership group is particularly good or bad. Yeah, the best model is to hire the best POBO on the planet and stay out of the way, but, like, only one team gets to do that.
   171. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 29, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5986448)
Otoh, I do think you can rate/judge organizations - which includes ownership and their seeming willingness to spend. It's just tricky to parse credit and blame.
   172. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 29, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5986456)
Otoh, I do think you can rate/judge organizations - which includes ownership and their seeming willingness to spend. It's just tricky to parse credit and blame.

Right, it's a systems thinking thing.
   173. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 29, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5986460)
Yeah I think for ownership it's really hard to evaluate. Like, Raptors ownership hired Ujiri and didn't meddle for a long time, Wizards ownership hired Grunfeld and didn't meddle for a long time. Is that because Raptors ownership is better, or is it that both ownership groups are checked out and Toronto happened to hire the right person? Are the more churny ownership groups, like Philly, smart for moving on quickly to try to find the best person, or are they thrashing and stupid?

they were pretty good until they let colangelo hire his own child.


trading for bynum showed ambition.
they hired hinkie and backed him (right up until they didn't).
they've been willing to spend money on assistant coaches (dan tony, monty williams, and now, joergerer and cassell).
bringing in the elder colangelo was an inflection point in their tenure, but if they had refused to hire his child, even that might have been fine.


and then, after they very publicly kneecapped their former GM (while expecting that he would stay on, accepting a demotion beneath his boss's child), then you get into the burner account thing, which isn't good, but i guess it's something that happens these days (#iveseendraymondgreenspenis).

what shouldn't have happened was taking 3 weeks to fire that ####### guy, causing you to go into the most important offseason of your tenure without a ####### GM.



and so, in conclusion:

sixers ownership are #### people.
but they pay well and when the team is good, they're probably smart enough not to meddle.
   174. jmurph Posted: October 29, 2020 at 01:45 PM (#5986467)
Well they just kneecapped another GM so I'm not entirely sure a lesson was learned (to be clear I'm not criticizing them at all here, hiring Morey is a great move for them).
   175. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5986469)
The Sixers ownership group is very poor. Like bottom third.
   176. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5986473)
The Sixers ownership group is very poor. Like bottom third.
i don't disagree, but like i said in one of the prospective mets ownership sale threads, i generally think they're in the "devil you know" tier of sports owners.
   177. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5986474)
The White Sox just hired TLR as their new manager.

I'm comfortable calling Reinsdorf a bad owner.
   178. jmurph Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:09 PM (#5986475)
Oh my god that is amazing.
   179. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:11 PM (#5986476)
Letting Hawk Harrelson fire TLR back in the 80s is the thing that Jerry says is his one big regret. That says so, so much.
   180. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5986477)
Reinsdorf is really bad at the basketball side, but I think fans don't appreciate how good he is at the business side.

The United Center is one of the best places to watch a basketball game, and has been since it opened basically. They do a great job with sales, concessions and entertainment, and basically most of the NBA tried to copy them and failed.
   181. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5986478)
Oh my God. They really did it.
   182. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5986486)
I'm trying to decide what the NBA version of hiring Tony La Russa to manage your team in the year 2020 is. Age-wise it's probably bringing Phil Jackson back, but that ignores the 15 year head start TLR got on Phil. Hubie Brown, maybe? He's a decade older, but his managerial years match pretty well with TLR's, just shifted back a further 5 years.
   183. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:29 PM (#5986490)
I'm trying to decide what the NBA version of hiring Tony La Russa to manage your team in the year 2020 is. Age-wise it's probably bringing Phil Jackson back, but that ignores the 15 year head start TLR got on Phil. Hubie Brown, maybe? He's a decade older, but his managerial years match pretty well with TLR's, just shifted back a further 5 years.

Well, Reinsdorf has almost hired Doug Collins as a Bulls coach a couple of times in the last decade.
   184. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5986492)
Phil is also probably the best NBA coach ever, which is not really TLR.

I think it'd be like someone hiring Larry Brown again.
   185. CFBF's Results are Certified Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5986494)
How would hiring John Lucas compare?
   186. jmurph Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5986502)
but I think fans don't appreciate how good he is at the business side.

Yeah there's probably a lot in this category.

Except of course Mark Cuban, who famously, according to his defense of allowing a culture of harassment to flourish, is not at all involved in the business side.
   187. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5986508)
Like, I get that most people don't visit a ton of NBA arenas.

But if you visit the Hawks arena, and then you go to San Antonio, or Chicago or Memphis, it's like night and day. The difference is so stark! The professionalism of the season ticket sales, the way the concessions operate, everything.

Edit: Like even the ####### Knicks have ok arena ops compared to ATL.
   188. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 29, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5986531)
Edit: Like even the ####### Knicks have ok arena ops compared to ATL.
but swipe right night.

and the barbershop!
   189. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 29, 2020 at 03:41 PM (#5986533)
I think it'd be like someone hiring Larry Brown again.

Yeah, Larry Brown is just about right, I think. He's got the longevity and the good-not-greatness required of a TLR analogue.
   190. Paul d mobile Posted: October 29, 2020 at 03:43 PM (#5986534)
Do you think MLB managers or NBA head coaches make the bigger difference to team performance?
   191. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5986537)
NBA head coaches by a huuuuuge margin.
   192. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 29, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5986540)
To expand on tship's point a bit, MLB managers control who is where, but have little effect on how a player throws/hits etc. NBA coaches can affect what kind of shots players take, what positions they get put in offensively defensively, etc. Baseball is a sport built of atomic actions by single individuals, while basketball is all interconnected interaction. Coaches have a ton more affect on basketball because they can manipulate how their team interacts and tries to affect the other team's interactions, while in baseball there is little for the manager to do beyond switching pitchers, setting the lineup, calling for steals and the like, and positioning players defensively.
   193. Rally Posted: October 29, 2020 at 04:11 PM (#5986552)
I've seen many times a good NBA coach come in after a bad one, and with little personnel changes turns a crappy defense into a good one. The coach is a huge factor on defense, not so much on offense where that really does seem to come down to having great players.

Frank Vogel deserves all the praise given to him this year. Some might say he just had the best players, but in New Orleans the coaches didn't know how to build a defense around Davis, and James has been known to take his comp time on the defensive side of the court in recent years. Though not so much this year. Give Vogel credit for finding a way to motivate James (not so easy when Lebron has far more power in the organization and sport as a whole than any coach could) and also making sure the old guy got a bit more rest this year.
   194. tshipman Posted: October 29, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5986558)
The coach is a huge factor on defense, not so much on offense where that really does seem to come down to having great players.


I think we have to be careful there.

Coaches *tend* to have more impact on defense than offense. But not always! The Warriors famously went from 12th in ORTG under Mark Jackson to second under Kerr. Houston went from 7th to 2nd on offense under D'Antoni. The Nuggets went from 5th on offense under George Karl to 16th under Brian Shaw.

Great coaches tend to put players in a better position to succeed on offense and defense. Most players tend to have their usage on offense more optimized than their usage on defense.
   195. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 30, 2020 at 12:58 AM (#5986630)
Coaches *tend* to have more impact on defense than offense. But not always! The Warriors famously went from 12th in ORTG under Mark Jackson to second under Kerr. Houston went from 7th to 2nd on offense under D'Antoni. The Nuggets went from 5th on offense under George Karl to 16th under Brian Shaw.


I was curious, so I looked at the data. I looked at all coaching changes since 2010 -- 76 in all -- and used relative ORtg and DRtg per bb-ref's franchise index. There are lots of confounding statistical things here -- such as regression to the mean and the fact that coaching changes often coincide with major personnel changes -- but here's what I found.

* Overall, the median absolute change in ORtg relative to league is 2.65 points; average is 2.79 points. 12 of 76 coaching changes had a delta of 5 points or more (in either direction).
* Overall, the median absolute change in DRtg relative to league is 1.85 points; average is 2.55 points. 10 of 76 coaching changes had a delta of 5 points or more (in either direction).

Based on this it would seem that coaching changes might have more impact on offense than defense, or at least that offense is more variable year to year than defense. It's probably within the realm of statistical error especially when you consider the impact of same-year personnel changes (e.g. the first two LeDecisions are the top two biggest swings in offensive rating), but I think this is enough data to safely say that coaching changes do not in general have a way bigger impact on defense than offense.

Incidentally, looking through this data made me really appreciate how much retreading there is going on in the NBA. Even for short stints, the same names seem to crop up over and over, and I'm not even talking about the famous itinerant guys like MDA, I'm talking about guys like Larry Drew or Keith Smart, both of whom had full-year coaching stints for multiple organizations.
   196. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 30, 2020 at 08:54 AM (#5986641)
So, the plan for the league in 20-21 is a relatively flat cap, using escrow to account for lessened revenues and hoping that 2021-22 is a strong revenue year.
This plan means you have to do that (escrow) again on 21-22. What about 22-23? How long can they realistically continue that approach, which I think they have to do to avoid chaos?
   197. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: October 30, 2020 at 09:37 AM (#5986643)
Woj: "Mike D’Antoni and Ime Udoka are finalizing deals to become assistant coaches under Steve Nash with the Brooklyn Nets, sources tell ESPN. Together, D’Antoni and Nash were the architects of the Seven Seconds or Less Offense with the Phoenix Suns in the mid-2000’s."

seems like basically a best-case scenario for the Nets.
   198. Paul d mobile Posted: October 30, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5986644)
The East could be a bit of a bloodbath for the top 7 or so spots next year. Of the top 6 teams, only Toronto looks to be worse? Then you add the Nets. Should be fun
   199. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 30, 2020 at 09:42 AM (#5986645)
197 - wow, yeah
   200. jmurph Posted: October 30, 2020 at 09:44 AM (#5986646)
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