Did anyone score the results from our '20 predictions?

I don't think this is the prediction contest you're looking for, but I have finally tabulated the BTF Wacky Predictions results. I'll post them when the new thread is up.

lin to gs: my understanding is that it's an e10 deal, which would essentially be to compete in the g-league, not for the big club.

What do you guys make of the Simmons/Harden talk? If I'm Houston I think I'd be willing to do that practically straight up (the contracts don't work so it would need to be more complicated, but I mean in terms of the major pieces moving). There's no question Harden is better now and it's probably a safe assumption that Simmons will never be as valuable, but I'd much rather take on 5 years of Simmons and his upside vs some combination of lesser players and contracts and late round picks.

EDIT: Perhaps this is all obvious? But it seems like from the reports Houston wants the multiple picks/players kind of deal.

What do you guys make of the Simmons/Harden talk? If I'm Houston I think I'd be willing to do that practically straight up (the contracts don't work so it would need to be more complicated, but I mean in terms of the major pieces moving). There's no question Harden is better now and it's probably a safe assumption that Simmons will never be as valuable, but I'd much rather take on 5 years of Simmons and his upside vs some combination of lesser players and contracts and late round picks.

EDIT: Perhaps this is all obvious? But it seems like from the reports Houston wants the multiple picks/players kind of deal.

I think Houston wants to try to get Simmons + Picks, and the PHL position is that it's either Simmons or picks, but not both. I think I said a couple weeks ago that it's 90% that this deal gets done, and everyone just has to get all the posturing out of their system.

No one else can offer anything as good as Simmons, and Houston really does have to make a deal soon.

ferry to join to spurs fo.
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i think houston can get more than simmons and that they should try to get as much as they can.

This Jerry West cap circumvention story looks like it might have some legs.

No one else can offer anything as good as Simmons, and Houston really does have to make a deal soon.

Right I agree (with der-k) that you push for as much as possible. I'm just saying, Simmons and some protected nothing picks vs Herro/Olynyk/whatever/salary/late picks is not even a discussion in my mind.

I don't know how to value Herro - it's something that's been on my mind, irrespective of a Harden deal. He's really young (still 20) and was greatly improved in the bubble.

if you wanted to make an argument for him over Simmons, here's a super simplified one. I'll start with the 538 estimates of player value, which shouldn't be taken at face value, but what I consider their usual biases would tend to favor Simmons over Herro, imo.

They rate Herro a hair better on offense than Simmons (which is probably right) and that there's a chasm between them on D (Herro bad, Simmons outstanding) - so here are their player valuations for the next three years (in millions):

Herro 14.5, 18.4, 21.1
Simmons 34.0, 40.0, 41.2

And their salaries...
Herro 3.8, 4.0, 5.7
Simmons 29.3, 31.6, 33.9

That dollar difference:
Herro 10.7, 13.6, 15.4
Simmons 5.7, 8.4, 7.3

Beyond that point, Herro will go onto his next contract and Simmons' current deal will last another two years. By standard age curves, Herro would be expected to continue to improve and Simmons would be expected to decline. Also, this credits Simmons with more minutes - Herro likely will close that gap over time - thus having more potential excess value.

Additionally, Herro seems much easier to just plug into a lineup whereas Simmons is tricky, given his lack of an outside shot.
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Now, I like Simmons and would love the problem of trying to fit lineups around him. Also, the name of the game in the NBA is getting stars and I think Simmons is a star now whereas Herro is still quite a ways away from that, nice bubble session or no. But is it possible for Miami to make an offer that I'd like better than just Simmons? Yes. Importantly, I think I could convince Philly that Miami could make a competitive offer. (This leaves out that Morey probably knows who Houston likes and doesn't like.)

I don't think the salary matters.

I also don't think the lineup flexibility matters. The Rockets are looking for the #1 guy, not for fit.

But is it possible for Miami to make an offer that I'd like better than just Simmons? Yes.

It's possible, because I would prefer Herro + Bam to just Simmons, and that offer works under the cap. But Miami is not making that offer.

Everything matters.
(and, no, Bam isn't on the table)

I also kind of just think Herro is ridiculously overrated right now. For all his improvement in the bubble, he still had a -11.1 net plus minus (edit: in the playoffs)!

The dude is an arsonist on defense!

new thread