Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, October 26, 2020

NBA Post-Bubble offseason thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA but we should have enough posters to fill out a mock draft regardless.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 26, 2020 at 07:08 PM | 2312 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mock draft, nba, off-topic

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 24 of 24 pages ‹ First  < 22 23 24
   2301. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 18, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5994881)
Did anyone score the results from our '20 predictions?


I don't think this is the prediction contest you're looking for, but I have finally tabulated the BTF Wacky Predictions results. I'll post them when the new thread is up.
   2302. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 18, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5994882)
lin to gs: my understanding is that it's an e10 deal, which would essentially be to compete in the g-league, not for the big club.
   2303. jmurph Posted: December 18, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5994885)
What do you guys make of the Simmons/Harden talk? If I'm Houston I think I'd be willing to do that practically straight up (the contracts don't work so it would need to be more complicated, but I mean in terms of the major pieces moving). There's no question Harden is better now and it's probably a safe assumption that Simmons will never be as valuable, but I'd much rather take on 5 years of Simmons and his upside vs some combination of lesser players and contracts and late round picks.

EDIT: Perhaps this is all obvious? But it seems like from the reports Houston wants the multiple picks/players kind of deal.
   2304. tshipman Posted: December 18, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5994888)
What do you guys make of the Simmons/Harden talk? If I'm Houston I think I'd be willing to do that practically straight up (the contracts don't work so it would need to be more complicated, but I mean in terms of the major pieces moving). There's no question Harden is better now and it's probably a safe assumption that Simmons will never be as valuable, but I'd much rather take on 5 years of Simmons and his upside vs some combination of lesser players and contracts and late round picks.

EDIT: Perhaps this is all obvious? But it seems like from the reports Houston wants the multiple picks/players kind of deal.


I think Houston wants to try to get Simmons + Picks, and the PHL position is that it's either Simmons or picks, but not both. I think I said a couple weeks ago that it's 90% that this deal gets done, and everyone just has to get all the posturing out of their system.

No one else can offer anything as good as Simmons, and Houston really does have to make a deal soon.
   2305. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 18, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5994889)
ferry to join to spurs fo.
---
i think houston can get more than simmons and that they should try to get as much as they can.
   2306. tshipman Posted: December 18, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5994892)
This Jerry West cap circumvention story looks like it might have some legs.
   2307. jmurph Posted: December 18, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5994894)
No one else can offer anything as good as Simmons, and Houston really does have to make a deal soon.

Right I agree (with der-k) that you push for as much as possible. I'm just saying, Simmons and some protected nothing picks vs Herro/Olynyk/whatever/salary/late picks is not even a discussion in my mind.
   2308. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 18, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5994905)
I don't know how to value Herro - it's something that's been on my mind, irrespective of a Harden deal. He's really young (still 20) and was greatly improved in the bubble.

if you wanted to make an argument for him over Simmons, here's a super simplified one. I'll start with the 538 estimates of player value, which shouldn't be taken at face value, but what I consider their usual biases would tend to favor Simmons over Herro, imo.

They rate Herro a hair better on offense than Simmons (which is probably right) and that there's a chasm between them on D (Herro bad, Simmons outstanding) - so here are their player valuations for the next three years (in millions):

Herro 14.5, 18.4, 21.1
Simmons 34.0, 40.0, 41.2

And their salaries...
Herro 3.8, 4.0, 5.7
Simmons 29.3, 31.6, 33.9

That dollar difference:
Herro 10.7, 13.6, 15.4
Simmons 5.7, 8.4, 7.3

Beyond that point, Herro will go onto his next contract and Simmons' current deal will last another two years. By standard age curves, Herro would be expected to continue to improve and Simmons would be expected to decline. Also, this credits Simmons with more minutes - Herro likely will close that gap over time - thus having more potential excess value.

Additionally, Herro seems much easier to just plug into a lineup whereas Simmons is tricky, given his lack of an outside shot.
---

Now, I like Simmons and would love the problem of trying to fit lineups around him. Also, the name of the game in the NBA is getting stars and I think Simmons is a star now whereas Herro is still quite a ways away from that, nice bubble session or no. But is it possible for Miami to make an offer that I'd like better than just Simmons? Yes. Importantly, I think I could convince Philly that Miami could make a competitive offer. (This leaves out that Morey probably knows who Houston likes and doesn't like.)
   2309. tshipman Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5994909)
I don't think the salary matters.

I also don't think the lineup flexibility matters. The Rockets are looking for the #1 guy, not for fit.

But is it possible for Miami to make an offer that I'd like better than just Simmons? Yes.


It's possible, because I would prefer Herro + Bam to just Simmons, and that offer works under the cap. But Miami is not making that offer.
   2310. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5994910)
Everything matters.
(and, no, Bam isn't on the table)
   2311. tshipman Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5994911)
I also kind of just think Herro is ridiculously overrated right now. For all his improvement in the bubble, he still had a -11.1 net plus minus (edit: in the playoffs)!

The dude is an arsonist on defense!
   2312. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5994923)
Page 24 of 24 pages ‹ First  < 22 23 24

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Adam M
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogAlbert Pujols could keep playing to reach 700 career homers: 'If I’m close to it, why not?'
(143 - 2:28am, Mar 06)
Last: KJOK

NewsblogMLB suspends free agent Sam Dyson for entire 2021 season
(4 - 1:57am, Mar 06)
Last: Itchy Row

NewsblogSource: Former Boston Red Sox CF Jackie Bradley Jr. to sign 2-year, $24M deal with Milwaukee Brewers
(26 - 12:25am, Mar 06)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogBraves revenue fell by almost $300 million last year
(42 - 11:47pm, Mar 05)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(12233 - 11:13pm, Mar 05)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 3-5-2021
(9 - 7:47pm, Mar 05)
Last: puck

NewsblogUniversal DH and expanded postseason unlikely for 2021 MLB season, per report
(32 - 5:07pm, Mar 05)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogNBA 2020 Season kick-off thread
(1912 - 4:40pm, Mar 05)
Last: rr doesn't talk to pawns

NewsblogTrevor Story Rumors: Rockies Contract Extension Won't Happen 'Anytime Soon'
(17 - 12:38pm, Mar 05)
Last: Bourbon Samurai stays in the fight

NewsblogJoe Altobelli dies: Rochester's 'Mr. Baseball' led Orioles to last title
(14 - 9:49am, Mar 05)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogNew report alleges Terry Francona, Chris Antonetti knew about Mickey Callaway’s behavior
(50 - 9:12am, Mar 05)
Last: Jobu is silent on the changeup

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - Winter Is Here
(898 - 7:38am, Mar 05)
Last: OPS+

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1936 Discussion
(20 - 11:07pm, Mar 04)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogNew York Yankees manager Aaron Boone having surgery to get pacemaker
(13 - 8:27pm, Mar 04)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogFinding a Fit for Jackie Bradley Jr.
(15 - 6:56pm, Mar 04)
Last: Jay Seaver

Page rendered in 0.2813 seconds
48 querie(s) executed