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Friday, April 10, 2020

Nearly 3 of 4 Americans Say They Won’t Attend Games Without Coronavirus Vaccine Developed

South Orange NJ, April 9, 2020 — While sports commissioners, governments and medical experts debate when to reopen sports leagues, a huge majority of Americans including a substantial majority of sports fans are prepared to stay home until the development of a vaccine for Coronavirus.

Asked what they would do if the leagues resumed play before the development of a vaccine, 72 percent of Americans said they would not attend games, with 12 percent saying they would if social distancing could be maintained.  Only 13 percent said they would feel safe attending as in the past.  Among sports fans the number drops to a still significant 61 percent.

Medical experts have repeatedly put the timeline for approval of a vaccine into 2021, although they have not ruled out an existing drug proving effective for treatment this year.  Seventy-four percent of Americans thought it was possible, likely or very likely that sports would be cancelled for the rest of this year.

If the Policy of Social Distancing Continues into the Fall, Should NFL Start Up?
And if social distancing continues into the fall, 70 percent thinks the NFL should not start up to insure the players safety, with 20 percent saying the league should resume but allow the players to choose not to play, and only six percent saying the league should start up as planned.

 

 

QLE Posted: April 10, 2020 at 01:19 AM | 87 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus, games, polls

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   1. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 10, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5938236)
12 percent saying they would if social distancing could be maintained.

Good news for fans of the Rays and Marlins!
   2. JJ1986 Posted: April 10, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5938244)
I probably would go because my daughter is very upset that we haven't been to a game yet this year.
   3. . Posted: April 10, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5938270)
The pro sports business is in big trouble. (*) Even after a vaccine, mass gatherings of people will be extremely unfashionable for at least several more years. We have an entire society that is now deeply conditioned to stay the #### away from strangers, upon pain of ultimate doom, and that isn't the kind of thing that is just going to magically go away. Their best play is to start pitching stadiums with one seat open, two or three seats closed, one open, two-three closed, etc.(**) Same thing with airlines.

There's a vaccine for the flu and still 30 to 60 thousand people die every flu season. No one really paid attention to that figure before. They will now.

My hope is that I'm wrong about this, of course.

(*) The college sports business is in even bigger trouble. Never underestimate the South, I guess, but it's impossible to envision a normal college football season, or anything close, outside the South -- and college football and the NCAA basketball tournament finance the entire system. All the people who wanted the NCAA brought to its knees are going to pretty likely get their wish.

(**) They should be doing this as we speak.
   4. The Duke Posted: April 10, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5938301)
I agree, people are going to be scared to death of their fellow man for some time. Just watch any TV show or movie from pre-covid and tell me you aren’t saying “‘man, you are way too close together”
   5. Rally Posted: April 10, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5938328)
I guess I've already been in my last moshpit.
   6. Blastin Posted: April 10, 2020 at 03:57 PM (#5938384)
I mean, I'd go if there was a treatment or something. But we're in for a long middle period of mask wearing between leaving our homes and the fall 2021 vaccine, probably with another quarantine for a shorter period at some point too.

That "will sports resume" question seems to mean "with fans." I think some sports will come back if there is quick testing, but without fans.
   7. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5938406)

(*) The college sports business is in even bigger trouble. Never underestimate the South, I guess, but it's impossible to envision a normal college football season, or anything close, outside the South -- and college football and the NCAA basketball tournament finance the entire system. All the people who wanted the NCAA brought to its knees are going to pretty likely get their wish.


CFB is not happening, and non revnue sports will get wiped out
   8. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 10, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5938411)
Concerts are over with, too. My musician friends have no idea what any of us are going to do. String and percussion players can play with masks on. Wind players can maybe play chamber music six feet apart. But in neither case can there be an audience present. And there will be neither a band rehearsal nor a band concert for probably two years at best. Existing organizations will all disintegrate, and there will be even less of a market for what we have to offer than there already was. At least sports know they'll eventually come back, because millions of people love sports. And popular music will come back, for the same reason. But we're not necessarily going to come back, and it's what our whole lives and reason for being revolve around.
   9. reech Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5938418)
This is an excellent article from SI regarding the unlikelyhood of starting any sport up this year https://www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon
   10. McCoy Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5938420)
Baseball was insanely popular after the 1918 pandemic.
   11. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5938422)
The only thing I'll say is that, if you had asked me in late September of 2001, the idea that people would go to the top of tall buildings, or fly on commercial airlines, seemed improbable...but we got there.
   12. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:32 PM (#5938423)
Yeah, but the percentages of a repeat of a kamikaze attack were a tiny fraction of that of catching the virus in a crowded space.
   13. McCoy Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5938425)
The only reason why the underwear bomb and shoe bomb didn't bring down a plane was because of luck.
   14. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:42 PM (#5938426)
And there will be neither a band rehearsal nor a band concert for probably two years at best.

As a trumpet player, this makes me rather despondent. I hope you're wrong, but I'm afraid you're not.
   15. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:44 PM (#5938427)
I agree with #12 - I think this situation is far more scary, in terms of probability, than even 2001. When you see credible medical sources suggesting north of 25% of people who have contracted the virus have been asymptomatic, and that a vaccine may be 18+ months away...well, there is zero-f***ing-percent chance I'm going to a rock concert, or an NFL game, or getting on a full airplane, anytime soon.
   16. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5938431)
Baseball was insanely popular after the 1918 pandemic.

And every single one of the people who attended those games has died! Wake up, sheeple...!
   17. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 10, 2020 at 05:55 PM (#5938434)
I'm a trumpet player, too.
   18. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 06:03 PM (#5938442)
Vaux: It's heartbreaking to think that. Have I seen my last opera?
   19. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5938443)
Vaux: It's heartbreaking to think that. Have I seen my last opera?
   20. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 10, 2020 at 06:08 PM (#5938446)
The last opera I saw was a production of Wozzeck where everyone was wearing a gas mask.
   21. Jay Seaver Posted: April 10, 2020 at 06:13 PM (#5938451)
I don't know whether I'm optimistic or pessimistic about this, because I do think that rough as this year is going to be, it will get back to normal faster than you might think. Part of it will be people who don't understand that this hasn't been as bad as the worst-case scenarios because many people have acted responsibly, part will be people with antibodies getting back out into the world, part will just be people figuring out ways to manage risk. We might see lots of plexiglass partitions go up in ballparks, or stamps on our IDs showing that we've got antibodies (I was reading that China already has an app for this). We will, unfortunately, see new clusters around places that don't manage it well, but hopefully we'll see creativity as well.

Or maybe I'm just trying to talk my way out of this apartment and into a movie theater.
   22. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 06:45 PM (#5938459)
Man I miss the movies. How TF are movie chains going to avoid total bankruptcy? Nobody is going to see a movie for months.
   23. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5938460)
According to Box Office Mojo, to #1 Box Office draw for the weekend of April 3 was a movie called Phoenix, Oregon which pulled in a haul of $3,842.
   24. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 06:50 PM (#5938462)
You know it strikes me that drive in movies might make a comeback! Maybe youngsters "necking" as well.
   25. Jay Seaver Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5938464)
Well, the word is that AMC probably will be bankrupt before this is over, and has already announced a few theaters as not re-opening on the other side regardless. But they're a mess of acquisitions, sales, and over-expansion. Cinemark is probably in the best position, and I haven't heard anything one way or another about Regal.

As far as I can tell, the next major movies scheduled to open are Soul in late June (if it's not pushed) and Tenet and Mulan in July. I suspect there are going to be a lot of heated negotiations between chains and the people who actually own the properties (AMC has apparently said they're not paying rent) and pushes for government relief. One thing that wouldn't necessarily surprise me is if, when your local theater opens back up, it's got a new owner/operator. If AMC refuses to pay rent, for instance, I could see the guys who own the building where the 19-plex downtown is located seizing the equipment, then negotiating with Regal or even some local company to take over the lease. I also wouldn't be surprised if the studios step in; the current administration is already looking to kill the Paramount decree, and even if Disney can't buy a chain or two, I wouldn't be shocked if Disney/AT&T/Comcast floated some big loans - they've got a backlog of big, expensive movies that are not going to make their budget back on digital platforms.

Or, again, maybe I'm just talking myself into the idea that I'll still be going to the movies every other night again by the end of the summer.
   26. Jay Seaver Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:17 PM (#5938466)
There's been some talk of drive-ins making a comeback, and I was looking to see if there were any open local to me even though I don't have a car, just out of curiosity. The closest was planning to open for the season today (I suspect that they originally pegged it to No Time to Die and would have booked Trolls World Tour despite it also being on VOD), but the rules against public gathering apply to them too. Plus, they're still going to have to give the studio 75-90% of the box office for the first week and make their money on concessions, and I bet making people stand in line outside the little shed 6 feet apart slows that down (and I also bet that very few drive-ins have built themselves smartphone apps so that people can order from their cars and have it delivered, although they really should).

I've also got no idea how good digital projection looks at drive-in scale - are places buying the 4K laser systems Imax is installing, or are they trying to make due with the same 2K projectors you see in 80-person screens? Heck, a drive-in near me got one of the 10 or 20 35mm prints made of the last Mission Impossible movie because they hadn't upgraded all of their screens to digital yet (and one was showing classics, most likely also on film).
   27. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:22 PM (#5938467)
Man, we JUST got a beautiful new Cinemark theater near me. Luxurious seats, great sound and projection, full dinner menu, etc. Crazy to think it might not survive this. Whoever thought my trip to see Sonic the Hedgehog there would be my last time going to the movies before the apocalypse.
   28. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:24 PM (#5938469)
26. the thought of watching a 35mm print of Mission Impossible is actually pretty cool.
   29. Walt Davis Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:32 PM (#5938473)
I think you folks are over-reacting. There is already plenty of talk about easing restrictions. The lockdowns seem to be so effective, officials are worried that people are starting to think that it's beat already and will start coming out too soon. Easter never seemed like a big "holiday" in the US but it is in many other parts of the Western world (where we get Friday and Monday off) and the emphasis has been "please, please, you cannot leave town over Easter, you have to stay put." (I'm not sure people going on their usual Easter getaway was actually at all likely but 'cracking down' on it didn't hurt.)

I know it's currently very different in the US. But other countries went into pretty serious lockdown much earlier ... and did more testing and track/trace earlier too. New Zealand is a country of 4.5 M people -- and has had one death. Australia is a country of about 25 million people and has had 54 deaths and 5 days now where we see about 100 new cases when less than two weeks ago we were seeing about 450. The threat in both countries has shifted from overseas cases to local transmission but in Australia at least, the number of new local transmission cases has been on a steady decline. (I assume the same in NZ but haven't seen numbers.)

There's still plenty of fear and anxiety obviously but levels of those have also dropped dramatically. People see the light at the end of the tunnel -- or at least they think they do. We're not out of the woods yet (and could find ourselves back in the woods especially if it thrives in cooler weather) but right now nobody's really freaking out about not having enough ventilators and ICU beds. There's meat, paper towels and even sometimes tp in the supermarkets again. And this is where the government is trying to do a balancing act. On the one hand, they talk about how it will be important to get the economy going again and that it's now time to begin shifting towards recovery planning while at the same time trying to emphasize that we are still talking about another 5 months of this at least.

Obviously we won't just throw a switch and everything will be back to 100% normal but, barring a new big wave (which is obviously possible), I will be surprised if Australia is still in lockdown come next summer. Folks will generally be OK with staying in over winter but they will be well sick of it come November. It will be a long time before borders are fully open so that will be a huge change to modern Australian life but I expect folks will be going to the beach and the "footy." Whether they should be doing that in 7 moonths is another question but barring a new peak, I think they will.

On a side note: it's not at all clear how much credit for this should go to the current government. Australia does have a strong healthcare system and it seems it was very good at track and trace. The government was listening to experts which was clearly good. They were though following a line pretty close to the early UK line -- they were clearly trying to keep shops open and the economy going, they were reluctant to acknowledge the obvious economic consequences that were coming. My opinion is that they were slow to react and really only got tough when other realities forced them into getting tough. Qantas and Virgin (and most other international carriers) cut flights before the government forced them to because nobody was flying. Q&V then cut domestic flights by more than half. The govt then announced a bailout for the airlines ... with the airlines responding by furloughing most of their staff and making deepre cuts to domestic flights. The bigger states of NSW and Vic put in lockdown measures before the Feds did and the smaller states (esp Tasmania) closed their borders to domestic travel on their own. Major retailers were closing stores and laying off staff long before the government shut down non-essential businesses because even if customers weren't fully locked down, they weren't buying new clothes. Only then did the government start moving sersiously on pumping money into increased unemployment and wage subsidies. There still hasn't been a national shutdown of schools (the health experts never called for one) but parents aren't sending their kids anyway unless they have to (healthcare workers, etc.)

I think at some level Australia just got lucky that we weren't an early hotspot. There's lot of international travel in/out of Oz, we have large Chinese communities (esp in Syd and Melb) and China is our #1 trading partner so lots of business travel, we do lots of holiday travel to Europe and get lots of tourists, and older Aussies seem rather cruise-crazy. But for whatever reason, we don't seem to have had an early outbreak which allowed our health system to get ready for track and trace and allowed both officials and the people to see what was happening in China then Italy. There was a point where we did seem to be on the Italy trajectory around day 3 ... and then I think a very large number of people just started acting sensibly before being forced to do so. Still plenty of idiots even after being told but mostly folks took it seriously. In fact, maybe too seriously as I think we were the first country on the tp-hoarding bandwagon from back when we had maybe 10-20 cases.
   30. Jay Seaver Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5938475)
Cinemark's allegedly in pretty good shape - AMC has been acquiring and had its parent company in China sell off a big stake to private equity, so they aren't nearly as liquid as the other big chains. We've had a bunch of theaters open here in recent years, and the Boston area seems to like going to movies enough that even if someone declares bankruptcy, someone else will probably grab the location (the former dump at Fresh Pond cycled through two or three owners a decade ago before the current group).

I have to admit, I was kind of annoyed by the drive-in in Leicester getting a 35mm print of Mission Impossible: Fallout to only run on the weekends when my local theater in Somerville regularly begs studios for actual film prints only to be told no.
   31. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5938476)
I don’t know if we should be writing sporting events off. As SBPT said I think we can bounce back relatively quickly. I think whatever sports exist in 2020 and maybe even 2021 is likely to be sparsely attended but I won’t be surprised if by 2022 some version of normal will return.

I think the big changes we are going to see is with food delivery both grocery and take out. I think a lot of people are going to want to use that as an option going forward just from a simplicity standpoint. The other area I expect to see big changes is the movie industry. Things were already trending toward home viewing rather than theater viewing. I think a lot of studios are going to look for direct to home viewing options.
   32. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:45 PM (#5938478)
Ah, Boston...I remember walking down the length of the Commonwealth Avenue Mall in the snow to go see opening night of the Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe at the Boston Common Loews with my then girlfriend, now wife. There used to be this dude who would push a little cart around the theater before the show, like ballpark concessions guy, yelling "Candy! Popcorn! Sssssoda!" I miss life.
   33. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 10, 2020 at 07:53 PM (#5938480)

I think the big changes we are going to see is with food delivery both grocery and take out. I think a lot of people are going to want to use that as an option going forward just from a simplicity standpoint.


Maybe? Right now where I live getting something delivered is 50% more than picking it up yourself, and that's with zero tip.
   34. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 10, 2020 at 08:00 PM (#5938481)
According to Box Office Mojo, to #1 Box Office draw


Digital sales, apparently

For $6.50—a new-release ticket price you may not have seen in 20 years—viewers get a one-time screening, plus a free digital copy when Phoenix, Oregon is officially released this summer.
   35. Jay Z Posted: April 10, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5938497)
I am with Walt here.

One way or another, the virus will abate. The virus is not that unique a thing in human history. It will go its way one way or another. People will go back to normal once it's done. Could even be a mini boom due to pent up demand. I don't recall people crying about the Spanish flu throughout the Roaring 20s.

But the virus is going to kill people. Maybe even quite a few. Don't worry about the rest, that will take care of itself.
   36. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 10, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5938519)
Right now where I live getting something delivered is 50% more than picking it up yourself, and that's with zero tip.
In Northern Virginia, I’m being bombarded with Free Delivery offers from seemingly every restaurant that has my e-mail.
   37. The Duke Posted: April 10, 2020 at 10:03 PM (#5938523)
I’m of an age and set of medical facts that I will not be out much in public until a vaccine or a cure is available. So that looks like 2021 but I hope al the youngsters get out there and start catching it and spreading it. We need a much larger percentage of the population to get immunity so it will stop spreading. That is we need much more spreading to prevent spreading to the people who can’t afford to get it.
   38. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 10, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5938525)
I’m a bit skeptical of predictions, here & elsewhere, for months ahead when events have moved so quickly lately. However, MLB isn’t going to allow spectators until they get the OK from the public health authorities, which will change public perceptions & attitudes. When MLB gets the green light to reopen for fans, people will come.
   39. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 10, 2020 at 11:48 PM (#5938540)
[16] Somebody who attended a 1918 game as a toddler would be 105 today. It’s not clear that there are none still alive.
   40. Baldrick Posted: April 11, 2020 at 12:34 AM (#5938546)
One way or another, the virus will abate. The virus is not that unique a thing in human history.

There has never been a pandemic remotely like this since the birth of the modern information economy, which is what everyone here is talking about here.
   41. . Posted: April 11, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5938587)
I’m a bit skeptical of predictions, here & elsewhere, for months ahead when events have moved so quickly lately. However, MLB isn’t going to allow spectators until they get the OK from the public health authorities, which will change public perceptions & attitudes. When MLB gets the green light to reopen for fans, people will come.


We'll have some at least non-fan data points soon. (*) The Bundesliga is scheduled to resume in early May, without fans. The PGA tour event in Fort Worth is scheduled to go forward starting May 21, also without fans. The Bundesliga teams have been in training for something like a week and we shouldn't expect the powers that be to deviate from the plan, barring some crazy ass development of some kind. The PGA tour event is still subject to movement, IMHO. I really hope the PGA tour event goes off as scheduled. I wouldn't expect MLB to get rolling with the Arizona/Florida plan before May 21, but I guess it's still at least technically possible. It would make perfect sense, given the fact that it's played outdoors in massive "arenas," that the PGA tour would "go first" in the US.

(*) Putting aside Belarus, of course, whose first-tier soccer league continues to chug along.
   42. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 11, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5938623)
Man I miss the movies. How TF are movie chains going to avoid total bankruptcy? Nobody is going to see a movie for months


Our local movie theater is selling giant bags of popcorn - drive up only.
   43. bunyon Posted: April 11, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5938626)
There is a significant number of people not really observing self-isolation here in NC. I'm sure we have more than enough who would be willing to fill a MLB stadium right now. And we could certainly get a tailgate together in Chapel Hill.

A lot of people won't go back until there is a vaccine. A lot will be fine with it.
   44. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 11, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5938630)
Their best play is to start pitching stadiums with one seat open, two or three seats closed, one open, two-three closed, etc.(


The thing is, with 1/3-1/4 capacity, will teams staff all the concession stands, or close 2/3-3/4 of them? Will there be the same number of ticket takers and entrances, or will everybody be herded into the same single line? Will all the restrooms be open? Will they be limiting how many people can leave their seats in-between innings? How do you maintain proper distancing if you have to climb over 3-5 people getting to your middle of the row seat?
   45. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 11, 2020 at 08:03 PM (#5938706)
I think #44 raises good points - it is not going to be enough to simply fill every third or fourth seat. There will have to be adjustments to every other element of the in-person experience:

- Rather than getting up and standing in line for concessions, or even passing money and food up and down a row for a roving vendor, all fans will have to download an app that allows you to order and pay from your phone, and the food will be delivered to you, no other option available. You may have to order your concessions in advance on your phone ("I'd like two hots dogs and two beers by the end of the 1st inning, and a Bud Light and bag of cracker jack in the 6th inning, please").

- Sections or rows will be assigned certain times when they can get up and use the restroom or something. I'll admit, the restroom thing may be the toughest to keep organized. I mean, if you have to pee, are we really going to say you have wait another inning or something, because it is not Section 213's turn?

- The system of admission into contests, concerts, etc. will have to be overhauled. It may be that (assuming once you've contracted it, you gain immunity) those who have immunity will get to stand or sit in between people who have not acquired immunity, to maximize distance between people who are not immune, or get to enter arenas via defined areas vs others, or something.

   46. Walt Davis Posted: April 11, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5938723)
#37 ... this is an excellent point. Life for the elderly and chronically ill population won't return to "normal" until there's a vaccine. And I'd guess it's quite likely that old folks homes will continue to be hot spots -- less often that currently but even if the thing gets controlled somewhat, those will be prime spots for breakouts.

I don't want to seem too pollyannish here. I suspect MLB doesn't come back in 2020 and, if it does, it will be in some pretty wacky form (the AZ/Fla bubble for Aug-Oct with no fans or a big tournament or whatever ... and what viewership).

More importantly, I think it's far from certain that the economy can return anywhere near normal in a short enough period of time. I can well imagine huge drop-offs in 2021 attendance but more due to a very deep recession than fear of the virus. (Well even when I'm in optimist mode, I know there will still be a substantial drop in attendance due to virus fears.)

I also assume that we will be moving even more quickly down the robot stock/checkout/delivery/ship path. The more that is automated, the more difficult it becomes for a pandemic to interrupt the supply chains. Of course with all those folks out of jobs, it's not clear who would be making the purchases at the end of that supply chain but no matter.

On the unintentionally humorous side, we are getting ads here (I assume you are getting something similar) in which Lexus Australia is assuring us that they are still here for us in this time of need. Not "helpful" ads -- i.e. there's no message like "if your Lexus breaks down, our service is still open or we'll arrange a loaner" or anything like that. It's just a concerned voice telling us how much Lexus cares and showing pictures of somber but caring cars almost as if they were nurses in masks or pictures of grandmothers you can't visit.
   47. Walt Davis Posted: April 11, 2020 at 09:43 PM (#5938724)
Also ... my original post started that I think you guys _are_ over-reacting. That should be a "may be" -- I don't pretend I know what's coming.
   48. The Duke Posted: April 11, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5938737)
I’ve seen a thousand ads with various companies doing what Lexus is doing. WTF? What a waste of money. If Lexus wants to help me how about creating a tracking app to tell me when a shipment of toilet paper shows up at a local store.

On a humorous note, I saw a story of a girl selling Girl Scout cookies in front of a store (surprised it is even allowed ) and she was giving away one free TP roll with every 5 boxes purchased and she sold out quickly. I love it when people find creative ways to make the world go round.
   49. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 12, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5938779)
One way or another, the virus will abate. The virus is not that unique a thing in human history.

There has never been a pandemic remotely like this since the birth of the modern information economy, which is what everyone here is talking about here.


Bingo. A hundred years ago, there wasn't an internet and a clutch of cable channels featuring wall-to-wall doom and gloom, demanding the president's head on a pike (unless he's a Democrat, of course).

Also, life was...less precious then? In 1917, life was nasty, brutish and short, especially in rural areas, which most of America was in those days. People had big families because they knew most of them wouldn't make it to maturity: "Maw! Lost another kid in the threshing machine! Better fire up that uterus...!" (And that's to say nothing of a global conflict that killed millions of young men, and set the stage for an even more destructive war a few decades later.)

I think eventually sports fans (who tend to be young and none too bright) are going to say, "Screw it, I can't spend my whole life in the friggin' basement. I'll take my chances." And the market will adapt, because, you know, money.
   50. bunyon Posted: April 12, 2020 at 09:29 AM (#5938789)
Aside from the OTP crap, RMc makes a good point. What we have no is what life was for thousands of years. The odd bit is the interlude where you didn't expect to die young from accidents or disease.

And you shouldn't be expecting that now. But the risk jumped dramatically and it's going to take some time for us to psychologically adjust. But we will. Calls for reopening in May (or even August) without vaccines, treatments or a miracle mutation or complete squashing of the curve are silly. But certainly if 2022 or 2023 rolls around and nothing has changed, we'll have to just get back to it and take our chances.

And there was doom and gloom aplenty in olden times. That's why folks worked so hard to build a world that didn't have these dangers.
   51. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 12, 2020 at 10:04 AM (#5938800)
Aside from the OTP crap

It's funny how everyone is demanding I take my doubleplusbadthink to the OTP thread. No thanks. I avoid OTP like the...er, like a very bad thing.

But certainly if 2022 or 2023 rolls around and nothing has changed, we'll have to just get back to it and take our chances.

There's no way people (and those who wish to please the people) will wait that long. Frankly, I'm amazed it's gone on as long as it has. Too much longer, and there's gonna be an explosion.
   52. bunyon Posted: April 12, 2020 at 10:46 AM (#5938806)
You're probably correct that people aren't going to wait that long. But it won't be because of reason and it will be a mistake.

I also don't think it will take until 2022 to develop a vaccine. But it's going to be longer than people will wait. Then we'll get our wave. We've done a good job so far. Not great but okay. I, too, doubt we can sustain it.



You don't need to take the OTP stuff anywhere. I just think you're wrong and a crank on that stuff. Didn't want to imply agreement.
   53. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 12, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5938823)
Didn't want to imply agreement.

Heaven forbid! You'll lose your BBTF badge and decoder ring if you do!

In a related note, remember when the AAF gave up the ghost last spring in mid-season? I had a friend who bet me $10 that the XFL wouldn't play its championship game this spring. I took the bet. (I'm refusing to pay so far; I maintain a pandemic falls under "acts of God" and thus makes the contract unenforceable.)
   54. bunyon Posted: April 12, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5938846)
You dishonor yourself.
   55. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 12, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5938856)
Might want to take that stick out of your butt, friend. Especially if it's been within six feet of somebody else.
   56. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: April 12, 2020 at 03:57 PM (#5938887)
Pay your debts.
   57. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 12, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5938932)
Yours, too.
   58. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 13, 2020 at 12:59 AM (#5939037)
I think #44 raises good points - it is not going to be enough to simply fill every third or fourth seat. There will have to be adjustments to every other element of the in-person experience:


I actually thought about this yesterday whilst on a long trail run.
You need to have people sit every 4-5 seat away.
Seats sold in blocks of 2 and 2 only. Makes it easy for stadium owner to get the distancing right.
You can only buy (2 seats next to each other) for 1 game at a time and if you get tix, you are not allowed to buy tix again for another 6 games.
Seats on alongside rails and aisles don't need that distance on those sides.
Seats can only be used by family members, purchases online with social security number and photo id(this may or may not get checked when entering)
You must enter stadium grounds with a mask.
You must drive if there is a parking lot(there are only going to be a few thousand cars anyway
NO concessions are open(if you can't go a few hours without food or drink, I don't want you in my stadium)
No toilets are open(if you can't go a few hours without a wee or a dump, I don't want you in my stadium)
You must arrive and be seated 30 minutes prior to game time.
You are NOT allowed to bring in any food or drink-you can bring yourself, your keys, wallet and phone...that's it.
You must enter the stadium gate that is closest to your seat.
To make it equitable for all:
Cheap seats are $25, decent are $50, best seats are $100 max.

Those are just a few of the restrictions I could see sort of working(maybe not?)
You have no concession or cleaning staff on site during the game.
Only staff required would be like 200 security/ticket check/random id check on entry guys.

Please feel free to add/scoff/tear apart the start of the possibility of how we can get fans to games.

   59. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 13, 2020 at 01:32 AM (#5939039)
Why not require fans to be wrapped entirely in bubble wrap and breathe through a straw? No team is going to open a stadium under the draconian restrictions in #58 - they would lose money if they attempted to do so, while alienating customers enforcing all those limitations. Mass gatherings, such as MLB games, figure to be behind restaurants in reopening, so the restrictions don’t make much sense, and I doubt those restrictions will be options in July, or whenever MLB resumes for spectators. MLB would stick to no-spectators, TV-only games before they’d ask fans to go without food, drink, and restrooms. Public health authorities would never let teams operate like that, either.
   60. Howie Menckel Posted: April 13, 2020 at 01:34 AM (#5939040)
the very reason I used to go to one or so Mets midweek matinee summer games a year - and if they were toast, so be it, prices are even cheaper - was, in retrospect, a desire for social distancing.

sometimes with a college pal, and other times with a retired colleague and his adult son.

but we'd get decent seats with access to a big lounge.

no need to sit anywhere near our exact seats (in the new stadium, they neutered/Disneyfied the former Shea Stadium predatory ushers). we'd find a broad expanse to ourselves.

we'd also wander around the stadium, sometimes trying out new seats in new sections for size - far from the madding crowd.

even in the lounges, we'd look for a remote spot.

all of that before COVID-19.

it annoys the hell out of the Wilpons that they can't sell out every game like the Giants or Jets used to do (I know this firsthand).

but maybe the matinee crowd level bug.... becomes the feature?
   61. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 13, 2020 at 02:00 AM (#5939042)
#59

I was just throwing some ideas out there, but hey why don't you be a douche about it as per usual. It's wasn't set up for teams to make money(they get plenty from TV), it was suggested to get people safely to games.
But instead of a positive contribution, you've once again proven to be a total wanker about it.

Of course you would probably qualify as one of those fans who couldn't go 3 hours without sucking down a chilli dog or using the bathroom.

You want people at games? Make some suggestions of your own
   62. Adam Starblind Posted: April 13, 2020 at 07:24 AM (#5939050)
(in the new stadium, they neutered/Disneyfied the former Shea Stadium predatory ushers).


Yeah what was WITH those guys? One screamed at me for an hour once for dropping a straw.

That didn't happen, but it's not all that much more ridiculous than one or two of the disputes I had with them when I was a young dude.
   63. PreservedFish Posted: April 13, 2020 at 08:39 AM (#5939055)
It's my opinion that once the general public is given the green light, people will eagerly flock back to baseball stadiums, concert halls, etc.
   64. villageidiom Posted: April 13, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5939068)
There's been some talk of drive-ins making a comeback, and I was looking to see if there were any open local to me even though I don't have a car, just out of curiosity.
Our local drive-in has decided to stay closed, because they expected their restrooms to become a COVID-19 danger zone.
   65. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 13, 2020 at 09:47 AM (#5939069)
It's my opinion that once the general public is given the green light, people will eagerly flock back to baseball stadiums, concert halls, etc.


I think we're going to see far higher divides by age group. Young people may well flock back; the older may think twice. Hey, baseball wants to appeal to younger fans, perhaps this way they'll be forced to . . .
   66. bunyon Posted: April 13, 2020 at 09:59 AM (#5939070)
65: True, but it seems like, in my bubble, at any rate, the people clamoring to reopen are older.
   67. PreservedFish Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:02 AM (#5939071)
I also think it's entirely possible that in 6 months we'll have a much better understanding of disease spread that changes our understanding of the hazards involved in events like this. I do realize that a particular soccer game has been implicated in the early disease spread. But I keep thinking about Japan, which has experienced barely any epidemic at all, a fact which has been attributed by some not to government intervention but to their hygienic culture - fewer handshakes, more face masks, more handwashing, just more cleaning in general. But this is also a country that is so dense that transit employees literally push travelers into subway cars.
   68. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:09 AM (#5939075)
65: True, but it seems like, in my bubble, at any rate, the people clamoring to reopen are older.


Agreed - I suspect the people who list 'when will baseballl come back?'as one of their top concerns will turn up no matter what. (Including people who register on a baseball forum to discuss these topics on a frequent basis). It's the more casual fan who takes their kids a couple times a year or retiree who snaps up cheap midweek tickets fairly often who may just look at the value proposition and go, 'eh'.

For a few teams, declining tourism will have a knock-on impact too. At a wild guess, the Cubs are probably attractive normally to international tourists who don't really know baseball, but have seen 'Ferris Buehler'. It's not a huge percentage of attendees, I assume, but I bet they spend quite a bit of money.
   69. Greg Pope Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:10 AM (#5939076)
Hugh, I don't think your No Restrooms policy is going to work. Let's say that you can speed up the game to get the average time down to 3 hours. You're still going to need to let the fans into the game at least a half hour before the game starts to let them get to their seats. And if you really limit it to a half hour, you're going to have crowding at the gates. So you probably need an hour. Plus whatever time it takes the fans to get to the game from home and park and walk to the gate. Then when the game is over you have to get back to the car and get home. I'm seeing a minimum of 5 hour commitment with no restroom time. I don't think that works. Plus there are also bathroom emergencies that can't wait. And what do you do when you get someone who figured they could hold it for 5 hours and finds that they can't?

I also think you'd have to allow people to bring in water at least, if you're not going to have concessions open.

Lastly, how do you prevent crowds from gathering near the entrance gate and how do you enforce distancing when the game is over and everybody wants to leave?
   70. Greg Pope Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:18 AM (#5939080)
fact which has been attributed by some not to government intervention but to their hygienic culture - fewer handshakes, more face masks, more handwashing, just more cleaning in general

Apparently during the Black Death in the 14th century, people thought Jews were immune to the disease. It seems that they mostly avoided it because of the Jewish laws about washing hands before eating, washing hands after going to the bathroom, and bathing once a week. There were other factors as well, but we shouldn't underestimate the impact of culture on these things.

I might be done shaking hands for the rest of my life. I hope we come up with a more acceptable greeting.
   71. PreservedFish Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:19 AM (#5939082)
Lastly, how do you prevent crowds from gathering near the entrance gate and how do you enforce distancing when the game is over and everybody wants to leave?

You'd have to stagger entrances and exits. It would be super weird. One of several reasons that this seems like an unrealistic option.
   72. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5939086)
I think Hugh's post is really good but also highlights why it's infeasible. His suggestions are perfectly logical and would do the trick but also wouldn't work in the real world. I think we will see games played behind closed doors and then when they get opened they will be open in full. The latter may not happen until 2021 but so be it.
   73. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5939089)
I think Hugh comes up with a great list of how to do it safely. But also doubles as a list to show it is unrealistic. Fans won't want that experience.

I agree that if this goes on too long, things will just explode. People will want to go to restaurants, and for MLB to operate, to simply have a job, and they'll accept the 0.5% chance that they'll die.

   74. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 13, 2020 at 10:59 AM (#5939096)
People will want to go to restaurants, and for MLB to operate, to simply have a job, and they'll accept the 0.5% chance that they'll die.
"People accept their own risk" isn't really how contagious viruses work.
   75. PreservedFish Posted: April 13, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5939104)
But it is how many people do and will think.
   76. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 13, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5939128)
Bingo
   77. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 13, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5939152)
Someone mentioned earlier about health departments, and I'll second that. There is no way the local health department would allow a "no use of the restroom" policy. And they probably wouldn't allow the "no water" policy either. No water for 4+ hours in the August heat in St. Louis?

This isn't to bag on Hugh, as others have said, it's useful to show that if that is what it takes, it's not going to happen. though I do take issue with his tone: ( Of course you would probably qualify as one of those fans who couldn't go 3 hours without sucking down a chilli dog or using the bathroom.). Proper hydration and timely use of restrooms are health issues. It's not about being a manly man and sucking it up.
   78. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 13, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5939153)
Hugh, I don't think your No Restrooms policy is going to work. Let's say that you can speed up the game to get the average time down to 3 hours. You're still going to need to let the fans into the game at least a half hour before the game starts to let them get to their seats. And if you really limit it to a half hour, you're going to have crowding at the gates. So you probably need an hour. Plus whatever time it takes the fans to get to the game from home and park and walk to the gate. Then when the game is over you have to get back to the car and get home. I'm seeing a minimum of 5 hour commitment with no restroom time. I don't think that works. Plus there are also bathroom emergencies that can't wait. And what do you do when you get someone who figured they could hold it for 5 hours and finds that they can't?

Just tell them to suck it up and hand them a "Just Don't Go" button.
   79. Ron J Posted: April 13, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5939161)
#78 or you have a Depends check
Worst security screening ever.
   80. PreservedFish Posted: April 13, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5939167)
If we're going to indulge in this fantasy, I will go the opposite direction of Hugh and say that fans are allowed and in fact encouraged to bring food and drink. A ham sandwich is not going to hurt anyone. People need beverages. Let them.

I would ask people to clean up after themselves. This is also a perfect time to end the deplorable American tradition of just acting like ####### slobs because some poor minimum wage employee is paid to clean up our peanut shells and spilled popcorn. They do it in Japan, they can do it here. Clean up your ####, America.

I would not perform janitorial tasks until the following day, to help reduce the (tiny) risk that custodial staff might incur from touching fan garbage. Some candy wrappers will fly into the surrounding area. That's too bad, but we'll live with it.

With the stadium at one-third capacity or less, people could obey social distancing in restroom lines. Paint some lines on the damn ground. This could even be your chance to fly solo at the Wrigley troughs.

I would get rid of the security check entirely - this is a marvelous opportunity to end the security theater that has caused terrible bottlenecking before sporting events. Nobody's going to use a ####### handgun at a ballgame, just knock it off, and in this age it is now obviously far more dangerous to perform safety checks than to just let people in with as many switchblades and flasks of Everclear as they like. Heck, in this scenario, people won't even be sitting close enough to get into fights. No security at the gate. No human ticket takers. No ushers. You need some security, of course, but not much.

This is the rare chance where people are on edge and aware enough that you can actually redirect and rewrite traditional behaviors. Now's our chance. If you told fans in 2019 not to put their peanut shells on the ground, they'd laugh at you. In 2020, they'll listen.
   81. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 13, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5939170)
A ham sandwich is not going to hurt anyone.
Well, give or take Mama Cass.
   82. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 13, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5939179)
Not only is that an urban legend (Cass died of heart failure) but the Paula Poundstone joke about Mama Cass and Karen Carpenter apparently is, too (that is, the joke is not original with Poundstone).

I don't think half-measures will work; there are just too many variables. Either they'll try to have business as (semi-)usual in 2020, or shut it down until a vaccine is available sometime in 2021 (or later).
   83. Zonk is UP-playing! Posted: April 13, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5939204)
It's my opinion that once the general public is given the green light, people will eagerly flock back to baseball stadiums, concert halls, etc.


IDK... if "flock" means 20-30-even 50% lower rates than pre-COVID? Maybe...

Pritzker and Lightfoot are going back and forth on summer festival cancellations - Pritzker suggested it; Lightfoot says "too soon to say", Pritzker agreed....

I generally hit at least 2 of RiotFest, Pitchfork, and Lolla every summer - and love to spend summer weekends at neighborhood fests. Add various random shows at larger venues like the Riv or Metro to the occasional smaller show at Empty Bottle or the Hideout? And then afternoon hooky for a ballgame... Whether the re-opening happens or not, I don't think my summer outings in crowds would be even half of what it was as recently as last year and depending, may be less. Too soon to say.

I do think that I'll be a LOT more discerning... Previously, I've been a sucker for just grabbing a ticket based on a recommendation or a good review. I don't see doing that again very quickly... maybe I'll just work on Spanish using Dr Ngozi Ezike's lesson plans :-)
   84. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 13, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5939212)
Not only is that an urban legend (Cass died of heart failure)
Yeah, I know, but it was right there.
   85. Howie Menckel Posted: April 13, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5939215)
"When the truth becomes legend, print the legend."
   86. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 13, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5939254)
I was just throwing some ideas out there, but hey why don't you be a douche about it as per usual. It's wasn't set up for teams to make money(they get plenty from TV), it was suggested to get people safely to games. But instead of a positive contribution, you've once again proven to be a total wanker about it.

Of course you would probably qualify as one of those fans who couldn't go 3 hours without sucking down a chilli dog or using the bathroom. You want people at games? Make some suggestions of your own
Your ‘ideas’ didn’t make much sense, and I can’t help noticing that you’re the one resorting to name calling here. Again, it seems very unlikely that mass gatherings, including MLB games with spectators, will resume ahead of smaller-scale enterprises such as restaurants, so I don’t see the point of no food, drink, or restrooms. And if you’re going to close all the concessions, why prohibit fans from bringing their own food & drink? Why prohibit a family of 4 that has been staying at home together for months from buying 4 tickets? What risks are you preventing? Whether MLB can allow spectators while imposing some social distancing measures is a an open question, and might be a tough call, but suggesting “real fans don’t need restrooms” and such is just silly, and not above being lightly mocked. This is BBTF.
   87. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 13, 2020 at 03:25 PM (#5939259)
A ham sandwich is not going to hurt anyone.


Not one of all those indictments?

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