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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, May 12, 2021New York Yankees 3B coach Phil Nevin, 1B coach Reggie Willits positive for COVID-19
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: May 12, 2021 at 09:28 AM | 39 comment(s)
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1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 12, 2021 at 03:19 PM (#6018588)My parents both got COVID weeks after having their first shot. The vaccine doesn't necessarily prevent infection, it just means you won't get that sick.
Catching Covid-19 after being vaccinated isn’t a myth. It happened to me
While vaccination confers essentially 100% protection from Covid-19-related hospitalization and death, it doesn’t entirely prevent people from catching the infection in the first place.
Damion Lee of Warriors tested positive despite being vaccinated: LINK From that article
As of April 26, the CDC reported 9,245 breakthrough infections out of the over 95 million people who became vaccinated.
I'd guess the CDC number is very underreported or a lagging number. I bet it's a lot more.
The Vaccines work. But no vaccine is perfect. In my personal life I'm not worried about getting sick and hospitalized, but keep an eye on news for issues with Variants all the same. My biggest concern however is catching the virus and transmitting it to someone who's not vaccinated, notably one of my grandkids or just strangers that I run accross. So I'm still pretty careful, mask, distancing, avoiding large crowds, etc.
You're not fully vaccinated till after you get the second shot.
In addition, the Pfizer vaccine (and probably the Moderna one) seem to prevent persons who have been vaccinated from spreading the virus (should they catch it), at least from my reading of the data coming out of Israel.
That is also extremely important, for the obvious reason that it means that vaccinated persons are almost a full firebreak to the epidemic.
Yes, 10 days after the 2nd shot for full efficacy.
But just to clarify, that means 66% less likely to get covid than a non-vaccinated person, not that 34% of people with J&J are still getting covid.
At the risk of being an internet conspiracy guy, I think it's very unlikely that these guys were vaccinated.
Oh my god no, yes the vaccine does necessarily prevent infection.* Come on. That is quite literally their purpose.
*Not 100% obviously. But mostly.
A clubhouse isn't a household but it's also 25 players plus coaches, trainers, support staff, etc. Plane and bus rides. Are they still rooming together on the road? It's the "birthday problem" -- the individual chance of infection might be small but the probability that somebody among those 40 people will get it at some point over a 6-month period is substantially higher.
*Not 100% obviously. But mostly.
It prevents a lot of infections, not anywhere near 100%. You yourself site 64% for JNJ, and Moderna and Pfizer are at 90-95%.
I'm vaccinated, and I expect to eventually get COVID. We should all expect to get a variant eventually. This ain't ever ending. COVID will be around for ever, like the flu.
But that's OK. With the vaccine, and the antibody treatment available, the lethality is going to be very, very low.
Exactly. My parents both had one Moderna shot, which was said to be 85% effective, but when my sister got COVID (not yet vaccine eligible) they both did, and did her two sons.
With the vaccine, and monoclonal antibody treatment, the disease was no big deal, despite them being in their late 70's. For the kids and my sister it was like a routine cold.
Is there any reason to think it will be more like the flu than, say, polio or measles? The COVID vaccines are much more effective than the flu vaccine, and more people seem to be willing to get them. And while COVID does mutate, my understanding is that it does so much less than the flu.
This is actually not true. The purpose of the vaccine is to train an army inside your body to fight off the virus if you get infected. Which protects you from injury or death. But it doesn't build a wall to prevent the virus from getting into your body.
If by infection, you mean a positive diagnostic test, then yes the vaccine is effective at that, because your antibody army could fight off the invading virus with enough speed that there aren't enough viruses in the body for the test to detect. But that isn't a guarantee.
You're not the only one
Chicago sports radio host.
I said it doesn't necessarily prevent infection. see [20]. The vaccine helps your body fight the infection. For some people this means the infection never takes hold at all, and it prevents COVID from appearing symptomatically or in tests. For others it just makes the infection mild.
(italics in the original)
It's in your own quote. The vaccine prevents infection for some people (80-90%) and not for others. That means it doesn't necessarily prevent infection. It does make it less severe though across the board.
Yes.
I'm simply pointing out the fact that if 100% of a group is vaccinated, you could still have multiple infections in that group, b/c no vaccine is perfect and infections cluster.
If the Yankees team and staff was a group of 50 people working in close proximity, 100% vaccinated, it would still be very possible to get 2 or 3 or 4 infections close together. All you need is one person to get it, and then the odds are some of those other 49 people are going to come up craps on their vaccine luck. If you get a strain that's a little different and the efficacy is only 75%, or a bunch of them had the less effective JNJ vaccine, and you could get a real cluster very easily despite 100% vaccination.
I gave you the real life example. Two people, each supposed to have 80-85% protection both got COVID almost immediately after being exposed.
But you know what, none of it matters. Between the vaccine and the availability of monoclonal anti-bodies, it's highly, highly unlikely any vaccinated person is going to get very sick, or even moderately sick.
Not necessarily. The people in the vaccine trials were tested for COVID-19 only after showing symptoms. In other words, we don’t know what percentage of vaccinated people in the vaccine tests contracted COVID-19 without any symptoms. Since MLB is testing people regularly, these people are showing up.
I don’t know if the numbers are large enough, but the results from MLB might give a more accurate estimate of the chances of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination than the trials.
Don't steroids suppress the immune system response?
Man, if I was working for the Yankees I'd be out buying lotto tickets right now. The laws of probability are apparently on vacation out in the Bronx.
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