How is everybody in MLB not vaccinated by now?

#1

A team spokesman said Nevin, Willits and the staff member are fully vaccinated.

It has to be false positives, or they got their vaccine from Dr. Nick Riviera in an unmarked white van. I can't imagine there are that many vaccinated people testing positive.

Isn't the J & J shot only 66% effective? That might explain it

I can't imagine there are that many vaccinated people testing positive.

My parents both got COVID weeks after having their first shot. The vaccine doesn't necessarily prevent infection, it just means you won't get that sick.

No, it doesn't have to be false positives.

Catching Covid-19 after being vaccinated isn’t a myth. It happened to me

While vaccination confers essentially 100% protection from Covid-19-related hospitalization and death, it doesn’t entirely prevent people from catching the infection in the first place.


Damion Lee of Warriors tested positive despite being vaccinated: LINK From that article


As of April 26, the CDC reported 9,245 breakthrough infections out of the over 95 million people who became vaccinated.

I'd guess the CDC number is very underreported or a lagging number. I bet it's a lot more.

The Vaccines work. But no vaccine is perfect. In my personal life I'm not worried about getting sick and hospitalized, but keep an eye on news for issues with Variants all the same. My biggest concern however is catching the virus and transmitting it to someone who's not vaccinated, notably one of my grandkids or just strangers that I run accross. So I'm still pretty careful, mask, distancing, avoiding large crowds, etc.

My parents both got COVID weeks after having their first shot.

You're not fully vaccinated till after you get the second shot.

6, absolutely.

In addition, the Pfizer vaccine (and probably the Moderna one) seem to prevent persons who have been vaccinated from spreading the virus (should they catch it), at least from my reading of the data coming out of Israel.

That is also extremely important, for the obvious reason that it means that vaccinated persons are almost a full firebreak to the epidemic.

7, from what I read, Mr. Nevin was vaccinated w/ the J & J vac.

You're not fully vaccinated till after you get the second shot.

Yes, 10 days after the 2nd shot for full efficacy.

Yea, I'm not saying you can't test positive after getting vaccinated, just that the odds that three people one one staff all testing positive after getting vaccinated seems to go against the odds quite a bit.

Isn't the J & J shot only 66% effective? That might explain it

But just to clarify, that means 66% less likely to get covid than a non-vaccinated person, not that 34% of people with J&J are still getting covid.

At the risk of being an internet conspiracy guy, I think it's very unlikely that these guys were vaccinated.

The vaccine doesn't necessarily prevent infection, it just means you won't get that sick.

Oh my god no, yes the vaccine does necessarily prevent infection.* Come on. That is quite literally their purpose.

*Not 100% obviously. But mostly.

#11 ... but it's three people in close contact with each other and probably with unvaccinated players, etc. Widespread vax will produce a lower overall rate of infection but the infections you do see will still tend to cluster. If you're in a vaxed household, the chances of somebody in your household getting it are quite low ... but if somebody in your household does get it, the chance that somebody else in the house will get it increase substantially although obviously the vax lowers that a lot vs not being vaxed.

A clubhouse isn't a household but it's also 25 players plus coaches, trainers, support staff, etc. Plane and bus rides. Are they still rooming together on the road? It's the "birthday problem" -- the individual chance of infection might be small but the probability that somebody among those 40 people will get it at some point over a 6-month period is substantially higher.

Gleyber Torres out of the lineup tonight due to COVID concerns

Oh my god no, yes the vaccine does necessarily prevent infection.* Come on. That is quite literally their purpose.

*Not 100% obviously. But mostly.

It prevents a lot of infections, not anywhere near 100%. You yourself site 64% for JNJ, and Moderna and Pfizer are at 90-95%.

I'm vaccinated, and I expect to eventually get COVID. We should all expect to get a variant eventually. This ain't ever ending. COVID will be around for ever, like the flu.

But that's OK. With the vaccine, and the antibody treatment available, the lethality is going to be very, very low.

#11 ... but it's three people in close contact with each other and probably with unvaccinated players, etc. Widespread vax will produce a lower overall rate of infection but the infections you do see will still tend to cluster. If you're in a vaxed household, the chances of somebody in your household getting it are quite low ... but if somebody in your household does get it, the chance that somebody else in the house will get it increase substantially although obviously the vax lowers that a lot vs not being vaxed.

Exactly. My parents both had one Moderna shot, which was said to be 85% effective, but when my sister got COVID (not yet vaccine eligible) they both did, and did her two sons.

With the vaccine, and monoclonal antibody treatment, the disease was no big deal, despite them being in their late 70's. For the kids and my sister it was like a routine cold.

Okay snapper, but 16 is a lot different than what you wrote above, which was wrong.

I'm vaccinated, and I expect to eventually get COVID. We should all expect to get a variant eventually. This ain't ever ending. COVID will be around for ever, like the flu.


Is there any reason to think it will be more like the flu than, say, polio or measles? The COVID vaccines are much more effective than the flu vaccine, and more people seem to be willing to get them. And while COVID does mutate, my understanding is that it does so much less than the flu.

Oh my god no, yes the vaccine does necessarily prevent infection.* Come on. That is quite literally their purpose.

This is actually not true. The purpose of the vaccine is to train an army inside your body to fight off the virus if you get infected. Which protects you from injury or death. But it doesn't build a wall to prevent the virus from getting into your body.

If by infection, you mean a positive diagnostic test, then yes the vaccine is effective at that, because your antibody army could fight off the invading virus with enough speed that there aren't enough viruses in the body for the test to detect. But that isn't a guarantee.

The vaccines prevent infection, according to the research. Perhaps you are quibbling with some of my phrasing and I will totally cop to not being sciencey so maybe I worded things poorly, I don't know. But in the way a normal person can understand these things, they are preventing people from getting the virus, NOT just from experiencing symptoms, which is the incorrect claim I was responding to.

This is the key study, I believe.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Authorized mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in real-world conditions. COVID-19 vaccination is recommended for all eligible persons.

At the risk of being an internet conspiracy guy, I think it's very unlikely that these guys were vaccinated.

You're not the only one

Dan Bernstein @dan_bernstein May 11
For what it's worth, Phil Nevin would be close to top ranking on the list of "clowns who would totally lie about having been vaccinated."

Chicago sports radio host.

Okay snapper, but 16 is a lot different than what you wrote above, which was wrong.


I said it doesn't necessarily prevent infection. see [20]. The vaccine helps your body fight the infection. For some people this means the infection never takes hold at all, and it prevents COVID from appearing symptomatically or in tests. For others it just makes the infection mild.

I don't understand where this idea is coming from, either in this thread or elsewhere. The findings are very clear.

And it gets better: Yesterday, the CDC released real-life data showing that, just two weeks after even a single dose, the two mRNA vaccines were 80 percent effective in preventing infection. The effectiveness rose to 90 percent after the second, booster dose. People in the study were routinely tested regardless of whether they had symptoms, so we know that vaccines prevented not just symptomatic illness—the vaccine-efficacy rate reported in the trials—but any infection.

(italics in the original)

And it gets better: Yesterday, the CDC released real-life data showing that, just two weeks after even a single dose, the two mRNA vaccines were 80 percent effective in preventing infection. The effectiveness rose to 90 percent after the second, booster dose. People in the study were routinely tested regardless of whether they had symptoms, so we know that vaccines prevented not just symptomatic illness—the vaccine-efficacy rate reported in the trials—but any infection.

It's in your own quote. The vaccine prevents infection for some people (80-90%) and not for others. That means it doesn't necessarily prevent infection. It does make it less severe though across the board.

Come on man. So in the multiple times you've posted about this you just meant 10-20% of people. Really.

Come on man. So in the multiple times you've posted about this you just meant 10-20% of people. Really.

Yes.

Right. Extremely good faith discussion, really enjoyed it. You could instead thank me for pointing you to new knowledge.

Even saying that 10-20% of the vaccinated are still susceptible to infection greatly overstates the case. If you get both recommended doses, it's 10%, and most other studies have pegged it at more like 5%.

Just to clarify: "80-90% effective" does not mean that the vaccine prevents 80-90% of people from getting infected (or that you have 10-20% chance of getting infected if vaccinated). It means that for any given person, it reduces likelihood of infection by 80-90%.

Right. Extremely good faith discussion, really enjoyed it. You could instead thank me for pointing you to new knowledge.

I'm simply pointing out the fact that if 100% of a group is vaccinated, you could still have multiple infections in that group, b/c no vaccine is perfect and infections cluster.

If the Yankees team and staff was a group of 50 people working in close proximity, 100% vaccinated, it would still be very possible to get 2 or 3 or 4 infections close together. All you need is one person to get it, and then the odds are some of those other 49 people are going to come up craps on their vaccine luck. If you get a strain that's a little different and the efficacy is only 75%, or a bunch of them had the less effective JNJ vaccine, and you could get a real cluster very easily despite 100% vaccination.

I gave you the real life example. Two people, each supposed to have 80-85% protection both got COVID almost immediately after being exposed.

But you know what, none of it matters. Between the vaccine and the availability of monoclonal anti-bodies, it's highly, highly unlikely any vaccinated person is going to get very sick, or even moderately sick.

Yankees shortstop Gleyber Torres, who previously had Covid & has been fully vaccinated, is now on the Covid IL after testing positive. Hope my vaccine works better than the Yankees version.

It has to be false positives, or they got their vaccine from Dr. Nick Riviera in an unmarked white van. I can't imagine there are that many vaccinated people testing positive.

Not necessarily. The people in the vaccine trials were tested for COVID-19 only after showing symptoms. In other words, we don’t know what percentage of vaccinated people in the vaccine tests contracted COVID-19 without any symptoms. Since MLB is testing people regularly, these people are showing up.

I don’t know if the numbers are large enough, but the results from MLB might give a more accurate estimate of the chances of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination than the trials.

Even saying that 10-20% of the vaccinated are still susceptible to infection greatly overstates the case. If you get both recommended doses, it's 10%, and most other studies have pegged it at more like 5%.

Those numbers are for COVID-19 with symptoms. It says nothing about asymptomatic infections, because the trials did not test for that. From the article you cited (italics mine):

Confirmed Covid-19 was defined according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) criteria as the presence of at least one of the following symptoms: fever, new or increased cough, new or increased shortness of breath, chills, new or increased muscle pain, new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, diarrhea, or vomiting, combined with a respiratory specimen obtained during the symptomatic period or within 4 days before or after it that was positive for SARS-CoV-2 by nucleic acid amplification–based testing, either at the central laboratory or at a local testing facility (using a protocol-defined acceptable test).

Yankees shortstop Gleyber Torres, who previously had Covid & has been fully vaccinated, is now on the Covid IL after testing positive.

Don't steroids suppress the immune system response?

They've got nine people with it now. The probability of nine out of, how many in the traveling group? 40?, getting it, after all being vaccinated...
Man, if I was working for the Yankees I'd be out buying lotto tickets right now. The laws of probability are apparently on vacation out in the Bronx.

You can't vaccinate against evil.