Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, January 27, 2020

Nicholas Castellanos deal with Reds | MLB.com

One of the most aggressive teams on the free-agent market all winter, the Reds made another big addition on Monday. The club agreed to terms with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos on a four-year contract, a source told MLB.com.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 27, 2020 at 03:45 PM | 58 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nick castellanos, reds

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5919687)
While I'd have liked to see him back on the Cubs for 2020, I'm OK with not committing 4 years to him. Maybe if the NL had a DH, I'd consider it. He did look great with the bat for the Cubs so maybe he finally figured out something to take a step forward as a hitter in which case the Reds got a nice deal here.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5919691)
His D was also less disastrous than usual next season. I'm thinking a Senzel trade can't be far off.
   3. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5919692)
Oh goodness those are some brutal Rfield numbers. Negative 30? Even Dunn only managed that once.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5919694)
Only -9 last year! And -4 by UZR!
   5. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5919702)
Castellanos is Braunie at third base and Braunesque in right field and neither is a good thing. But the Reds are trying and that's cool. Reds have not been above .500 since 2013.

Maybe NC is the guy to replace Votto if Joey's bat is really dead and not on vacation last year??
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5919706)
Weird think about Votto is he's lost power and walks. Those are usually the last things to go.
   7. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5919708)
Maybe Castellanos is going to left field? I could see Winker and Senzel being part of a trade to get a ss better than Galvis (though, no idea who is still available). Castellanos, Shogo, Aquino, with Ervin, Van Meter, Jankowski as backups.

Shogo
Votto
Suarez
Moustakas
Castellanos
Aquino
Garvis
Barnhart
pitcher
   8. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5919709)
I don't think Castellanos was that bad in RF for the Cubs last year. I kept watching, waiting for it to become obvious why his numbers were so bad out there. I'm sure some of the improvement is merely experience, as he was an OF for long before he got to Wrigley. When it did matter, the Cubs did pull him for a defensive replacement late in games. I can only recall a couple of plays where he looked anywhere near his reputation, so maybe he was just lucky to not have that many chances to screw up.

He gets an opt out after year 1 and year 2, which is interesting. If he really did figure something out, I can see this deal turning out to be a pretty good bargain.

I could see Winker and Senzel being part of a trade to get a ss better than Galvis (though, no idea who is still available).

Lindor has to be the best case here.

   9. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5919711)
Worst Fielding Runs (number of runs better or worse than average the player was for all fielding) since 2016

Player Rfield
Xander Bogaerts ‑61.0
Nicholas Castellanos ‑60.0
Adam Jones ‑51.0
Eduardo Nunez ‑48.0
Melky Cabrera ‑47.0
Matt Kemp ‑47.0
   10. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5919712)
Maybe NC is the guy to replace Votto if Joey's bat is really dead and not on vacation last year??


This is the first thing that I thought when I saw the deal. It's a lot of clams to bet on your best playing being toast though.

As it is, the Reds have too many outfielders. Signing Moose means Senzel isn't going back to the IF. They need to find playing time for: Winker, Senzel, Ervin, Aquino, Akiyama, and Castellanos. Trading Senzel is possible. Ervin might not be starter-quality. Senzel out, Ervin to the bench. Where does Winker go? I assume that Akiyama and Castellanos are playing, since they're the new pick ups. Winker as 26th man and insurance in case Akiyama doesn't adjust well?

Reds' weakest spot is SS. If Senzel gets traded it would make sense to try to upgrade short. But I don't have any good ideas for a trade off the top of my head.
   11. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5919719)
Trent R. noted that Aquino has an option, but you wanna play him, right? Embrace the possibility that his improvement was real?
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5919723)
Reds' weakest spot is SS. If Senzel gets traded it would make sense to try to upgrade short. But I don't have any good ideas for a trade off the top of my head.

Fangrpahs is talking about Lindor, as is Moses.

Senzel and Winker immediately are the Indians two-best corner OF. What else would they need to add?
   13. TJ Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5919724)
Watching Castellanos try to play outfield here in Detroit, I can say his biggest challenge was getting jumps on a ball. His hands were decent, his arm seemed OK, but there was no way he could cover enough ground in an outfield as big as Comerica Park. He looked all right playing in the friendly confines of Wrigley, so maybe he won't be so abjectly horrible in another small park.


Saying that, Cincy would be wise to start working Castellanos out at 1B so he could give Votto a rest and get out of right field when the Reds go on the road to a big yard.
   14. Stevey Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5919730)
Maybe if the NL had a DH


Speak of the devil.
   15. bfan Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5919736)
Does the addition of a 26th roster spot make a bad fielder more tolerable now? You can get the big hitter's last AB, and then replace them with your 26th guy, who also happens to be a fast runner to pinch-run when he won't get the late-inning replacement gig for a particular game.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:31 PM (#5919738)
Ha. Like they won't just add another pitcher.
   17. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5919743)
They can't, there's a limit on the number of pitchers. Which led to a bunch of hand-ringing (at least here) over who qualifies as a pitcher or hitter and whether teams can play loop holes with that. I honestly am not sure how guys like Ohtani and Lorenzen will get counted.
   18. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:59 PM (#5919746)
I * think * you can be a 2-way guy if you pitched and hit in at least 20 games the prior year (min 3 PA for each). So, Ohtani will be a hitter and Lorenzen a pitcher next year, right? (Not sure why the Reds didn't sprinkle more starts in center for Lorenzen, but what do I know?)
Had the rule been around a year earlier, Ohtani would've qualified as a 2 way guy.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 06:27 PM (#5919749)
Does the addition of a 26th roster spot make a bad fielder more tolerable now? You can get the big hitter's last AB, and then replace them with your 26th guy, who also happens to be a fast runner to pinch-run when he won't get the late-inning replacement gig for a particular game.

I suppose so although teams rarely have trouble doing this now. I suppose the 26th man makes it a bit easier to carry a lead glove in both LF and RF if you're so inclined.

I also didn't think Castellanos looked terrible. He looked regular bad, not super bad -- more Moreland or Henry Rodriguez than late Dunn. But I assume it's only going to get worse from here although I should also add that I forgot how young he still is so no particularly good reason to think it will get much worse.

Votto still has 4 years left on his contract and this could all end very sadly but Castellanos does offer insurance there. The 26th man might end up helping Votto -- if he's nearly done, he might still make a reasonable PH and his defense is apparently still good so he would have his uses.

Weird think about Votto is he's lost power and walks. Those are usually the last things to go.

Well really he's (maybe) lost it all. Eventually everything goes. He lost heaps of BA along with ISO in 2018 then more BA and walks in 2019. His BABIP the last 3 years has been pretty stable and still well above-average so the ISO drop has really hurt him by turning HRs into FBs. The walk rate is also still way above-average but, if he has little power, pitchers have no reason to be extra careful with him anymore. He led the NL with 20 IBB in 2017 then 6 then 2. That's far from the entire drop in his walk rate but it doesn't help.

It is a strange combo for sure -- BABIP, walks, LD% all well above-average, incredibly low pop-up rate ... but at the same time the 2nd worst BABIP of his career, worst walk rate, LD rate well below his last 5-6 years, highest pop-up rate of his career, the highest K-rate of his career and really out of line with 2016-18. If he was a good-fielding CF, 2B or 3B he'd still have been a pretty-good player last year. Still, all the pieces are there for him to be a solid non-Votto hitter if he can rediscover his power. This is possibly how the process works -- everything still seems to be working pretty well, oh-oh the power has slipped, I need to trade contact and BABIP for power. Maybe that explains the K-rate spike only he didn't get it right.

At Statcast, he was pretty well down there -- 236th in barrel/PA, 210th in %hard-hit, 199th in avg EV (those are actually ties for a higher placing). But the avg EV and hard-hit % were both higher than 2017-18 and barrels/PA the same as 2018. There's only 5 years of statcast so we shouldn't make too much of its trends but these suggest that the decline began in 2017 with pretty big drops in avg EV and hard-hit % followed by a big drop in barrels in 2018 with 2019 actually being a small recovery in EV and hard-hit % without any real uptick in barrels. His average LA (which may not be of much use) was higher in 2017-19 than 2015-16 which could explain the small bump in pop-ups. So 2019 might have been the first signs of adjustment but it hasn't worked yet.

Pitchers really like pitching around sluggers with 1B open, especially those with plate discipline anyway. Obviously nearly all of Votto's IBB have come in these situations with IBB rates of about 10% for -2- and --3 and a whopping 33% for -23 ... but his uIBB rates in these situations are still 19-20% (13.5% with nobody on). In 2019, his UIBB in these situations (small sample) was the same but the IBB rate dropped to about 3%. Pitchers aren't scared of him anymore.
   20. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 27, 2020 at 09:40 PM (#5919781)
It's certainly possible that he's done, but every time the demise of Votto comes up, I feel forced to remind folks that he led the league in OBP all the way back in 2018. I wonder they had discovered fire that long ago.

Lindor would obviously be huge, but I really don't know why the Tribe would be in such a hurry to trade him. The Reds don't have any blue-chip prospects to offer. You'd think they'd want the kind of prospect the Reds haven't got. (On the other hand, Senzel was that kind of prospect last year. And the contenders that have those kinds of prospects don't have holes at shortstop.)
   21. eric Posted: January 27, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5919791)
I did not realize Castellanos hit 58 2B last season.

Weird think about Votto is he's lost power and walks. Those are usually the last things to go.


....

It's certainly possible that he's done, but every time the demise of Votto comes up, I feel forced to remind folks that he led the league in OBP all the way back in 2018.


Willie Mays led his league in OBP in 1971. In 1973 he had an 81 OPS+ and was done. Now, he was older than Votto is now, but he was, you know, Willie Freakin' Mays.

While I think it's clear whatever Votto was doing isn't going to cut it any more, he is still young enough that I'm hoping he can make whatever adjustments are necessary to remain a cromulent player for a few more years. We don't need a Pujols Mark II.

   22. Howie Menckel Posted: January 27, 2020 at 11:05 PM (#5919796)
They need to find playing time for: Winker, Senzel, Ervin, Aquino, Akiyama, and Castellanos.

fwiw they also have Josh VanMeter, Scott Schebler, and Travis Jankowski who also are MLB level. JVM can play some INF as well, at least.

most Doubles since 1960 (age):

Todd Helton (26) 59 2000

Nicholas Castellanos (27) 58 2019

Carlos Delgado (28) 57 2000

Jose Ramirez (24) 56 2017
Brian Roberts (31) 56 2009
Garret Anderson (30) 56 2002
Nomar Garciaparra (28) 56 2002
Craig Biggio+ (33) 56 1999

Matt Carpenter (27) 55 2013
Lance Berkman (25) 55 2001

Rafael Devers (22) 54 2019
Dustin Pedroia (24) 54 2008
Magglio Ordonez (33) 54 2007
Todd Helton (27) 54 2001
Mark Grudzielanek (27) 54 1997
Alex Rodriguez (20) 54 1996
John Olerud (24) 54 1993
Hal McRae (31) 54 1977

(Mattingly 1986 was the '80s Doubles champ with 53)
   23. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 11:19 PM (#5919800)
Re-reading, my Votto bit sounds more certain than I mean it to. I completely agree that, at this point, 2019 was just one bad year. Other than the big drop in walk rate, 2019 looks like his 2014 half-season. As I tried to make clear, the pieces are certainly there for him to return to something resembling 2014/2018 in OPS+ terms whether that's primarily through big walk rate (as in those years) or refound power.

I find it interesting how quickly teams stopped issuing IBBs to him in 2018 -- basically from the start. That was true in 2014 as well with just 1 IBB in the first 6 weeks. There was a big league-wide drop in IBB between 2018 and 2018 but not between 2017 and 2018.

Anyway, Votto did lead the NL in OBP in 2018 based on a 333 BABIP, 17% walk rate and 16% K-rate; in 2019 those numbers were 313, 12.5% and 20%. That doesn't spell inescapable doom but it's not promising and he's turning 36. But as I hope I made clear, all he really needs to do to go back to something like a 120 OPS+ is get back to a 200 ISO while maintaining the rest.

Just out of curiosity, I looked at seasons aged 34 or older (expansion) with an OPB of 400+. Most of the guys, and there are a fair number, hung on well enough through 36 or 37 but some interesting names that didn't:

Brady Anderson at 35 had a line pretty similar to Votto at 34 ... he followed that with a 106 OPS+ and then 66 and 59
Berkman had a monster season at 35, a very good one at 36 then was just about done
Giambi was a beast at 34-35 then mediocre at 36, good at 37 then pretty much done
   24. flournoy Posted: January 27, 2020 at 11:34 PM (#5919802)
most Doubles since 1960


You can back that up all the way to 1938, and the only one you add to the list is George Kell with 56 in 1950.

Interesting that 50+ doubles was common in the 1920s and 1930s, then was unheard of for 60 years, and then became common again. I don't think I've ever paid much mind to doubles totals.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:49 AM (#5919812)
thanks for that, flournoy.

yes, growing up in the 1960s and 1970s, the record of 67 doubles seemed like silly ball. McRae's 54 in 1977 was kind of shocking, albeit presumably Astroturf-aided. looks like that was 2nd-most in almost 40 years, then.

big-number doubles leaders came back in style in the 1990s, and even moreso in the 2000s.

Helton and Delgado in 2000 had the most doubles in more than 60 years, but I don't remember any buzz about that - at all. nor Biggio in 1999, who had done the same.


   26. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:17 AM (#5919816)
I recall there being some buzz about Brian Roberts possibly betting to 60 doubles. He also had 50 in 2004 and 51 in 2008. He and Pujols are the only expansion era guys with three 50+ seasons. There are some surprising names on the 50+ list but I'll nominate Lucroy (since he's a C) and Lyle Overbay (since he wasn't particularly good). If you are an Overbay fanboy, feel free to sub Mark Grudzielanek (2nd best season 38).
   27. PeteF3 Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:38 AM (#5919827)
Chuck Knoblauch had 40-something doubles in '94 at the time of the strike, the first time in awhile that the single-season doubles record looked to be in some danger.
   28. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 28, 2020 at 08:17 AM (#5919833)
Saying that, Cincy would be wise to start working Castellanos out at 1B so he could give Votto a rest


Votto vs/lefties: 2018: .758 ops, 2019: .656 (with late Pete Rose level power vs them (.309 slg)

Castellanos: 2018: 1.004 ops, 2019: 1.138ops career: .891 ops

Seems like Castellanos spelling Joey against lefties is the way to go.

   29. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 28, 2020 at 08:37 AM (#5919834)
Castellanos does have opt outs after season 1 and season 2 of this deal, and a $20 million mutual option for 2024. $16, $14, $16, $16 with a $2 million buyout in 2024, with opt-outs after year 1 and year 2.

Reds have added for 2020:

Moose Tacos $12
Castellanos $16
Shogo $6
Miley $6

fwiw they also have Josh VanMeter, Scott Schebler, and Travis Jankowski who also are MLB level. JVM can play some INF as well, at least.


Also, they still have Derek Dietrich

edit: and, i can't imagine Schebler is still in their plans. He was utterly disastrous last year. OPS under .600 in AAA after the .475 ops he put up in April in the majors.
   30. Howie Menckel Posted: January 28, 2020 at 09:12 AM (#5919839)
Dietrich - grandson of Steve Demeter, who was once infamously traded from Cleveland to Detroit for Norm Cash - mercifully is a free agent.

DD hit 12 HR in May 2019 and then went 8 for 87 with 1 HR in the second half of the season. there are even deeper depths to be found, for those who like baseball failure porn.
   31. JJ1986 Posted: January 28, 2020 at 09:31 AM (#5919844)
I think I'd try to trade Winker and keep everyone else. Unless Senzel's a bust, he should have more trade value later. Between him and VanMeter, they can put a fine 4th outfielder together and Winker shouldn't be playing CF if they have a need. If Jankowski's on a minor league deal, they can keep him in AAA in case they need someone to play there.
   32. bfan Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:12 AM (#5919851)
Unless Senzel's a bust, he should have more trade value later. Between him and VanMeter, they can put a fine 4th outfielder together


How did Senzel in one not so bad MLB season go from a consensus top 10 prospect in 2019 to 4th outfielder material? I think we have gotten spoiled by the Acuna's and Soto's of the world. Senzel is 24 years old and can grow into a perfectly fine MLB player.
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5919855)
How did Senzel in one not so bad MLB season go from a consensus top 10 prospect in 2019 to 4th outfielder material? I think we have gotten spoiled by the Acuna's and Soto's of the world. Senzel is 24 years old and can grow into a perfectly fine MLB player.

Players seem to be maturing earlier than ever. The aging curve is less predictable than in the past. But not being even an average major leaguer by 24.5 y.o. is generally a good indication you won't be a star.
   34. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:52 AM (#5919867)
Trent R. noted that Aquino has an option, but you wanna play him, right? Embrace the possibility that his improvement was real?

I don't think Aquino is being considered for a major role, and I don't think he should be. His August was a joyous mirage. He slashed .196/.236/.382 for the rest of the year. SSS of course but so was August.

Winker and Senzel both have a troubling injury history for young players. So even with Castellanos, I don't think the OF is too crowded. This does squeeze out Ervin and VanMeter but I don't see those as great losses.
   35. PreservedFish Posted: January 28, 2020 at 11:28 AM (#5919876)
Senzel was never really that good in the minors. What a guy's pedigree is based on scouting more so than stats, and at the same time his own team doesn't seem to believe in him much or know what to do with him, it makes sense that people lose enthusiasm.
   36. JJ1986 Posted: January 28, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5919880)
How did Senzel in one not so bad MLB season go from a consensus top 10 prospect in 2019 to 4th outfielder material?
I just meant he could be a 4th outfielder at the beginning of this season, nothing about his prospects.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5919882)
Senzel was never really that good in the minors.

What are you referring to? I see wRC+ of A 184, A+ 147, AA 184, AAA 149. That looks pretty damn good.
   38. flournoy Posted: January 28, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5919888)
DD hit 12 HR in May 2019 and then went 8 for 87 with 1 HR in the second half of the season. there are even deeper depths to be found


You weren't kidding.

Derek Dietrich through June 2: .262/.373/.700 (153 PA)
Derek Dietrich afterwards: .099/.283/.207 (153 PA)

Worth noting that even in the latter half of his 2019, he still hit a lot better than his grandpa did.


On the topic of doubles totals, the only buzz I ever remember was in regards to Albert Belle in 1995. 52 doubles and 50 home runs, the first (and still only) time anyone's gone 50/50 in 2B/HR. First season of 100+ XBH since Stan Musial in 1948 as well. There were five more such seasons in 2000-2001, and none since.
   39. bfan Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:05 PM (#5919894)
What are you referring to? I see wRC+ of A 184, A+ 147, AA 184, AAA 149. That looks pretty damn good.


And maybe there is herd mentality going on here, but BA had him as the #10 prospect; BP had him as #9; and MLB (Jonathon Mayo) had him as #6, for the top-100 prospect lists going into the 2019 season (when he was a 23.5 year old player). There is no guaranty of success for a prospect, but that is pretty across the board he is going to be a star, isn't it?
   40. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5919905)
Xander Bogaerts ‑61.0


Is Xander the new Jeter? He doesn't *look* particularly bad at SS, does he just not get to balls? Is his defense just ignored because he can hit?
   41. DanG Posted: January 28, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5919939)
Oh goodness those are some brutal Rfield numbers. Negative 30? Even Dunn only managed that once.
That was in his rookie year, playing 3B. Detroit, as is their history, tried hard to screw up their top prospect.

Castellanos was drafted out of HS as a 3B, the 44th player taken in the 2010 draft. After about two years it became clear that Nick was never going to conquer 3B and he became a corner OF in mid 2012.

Playing strictly LF in 2013, Castellanos had a fine year in AAA at age 21. Many teams inquired with Dombrowski about a trade; with Detroit in Win Now mode, they were always trading away prospects. But Castellanos was untouchable, with Detroit seeing him as the cornerstone of contending teams well into the future.

Detroit had no LF in 2013; the immortal Andy Dirks posted a OPS+ of 87 as their regular. So the coast was clear for Castellanos to step in. But wait - Detroit suddenly had no 3B. DD managed to unload Prince Fielder, so Miguel Cabrera was moving from 3B back to 1B. Hey Nick, dig that infielder glove out of the trash, you're our new third baseman! The Tigers figured he couldn't be any worse at 3B than Cabrera, but they were wrong.

So the Tigers took their prized prospect and forced him to play a position they already knew he couldn't handle. Castellanos was below average on offense his first two years as he battled the position. To Nick's credit he fought through that and became a solid MLB player.
   42. DCA Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5919957)
Albert Belle in 1995. 52 doubles and 50 home runs, the first (and still only) time anyone's gone 50/50 in 2B/HR. First season of 100+ XBH since Stan Musial in 1948 as well. There were five more such seasons in 2000-2001, and none since.

I was going to say that I was surprised that one of McGwire/Sosa didn't do it in 1998, what with the 70 and 66 HR. But turns out McGwire never in his career had 30 doubles in a season (though he did have 32 2B+3B in his rookie year). Sosa did eventually reach the 100 XBH threshold in 2001.
   43. bfan Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5919960)
I was going to say that I was surprised that one of McGwire/Sosa didn't do it in 1998, what with the 70 and 66 HR. But turns out McGwire never in his career had 30 doubles in a season (though he did have 32 2B+3B in his rookie year). Sosa did eventually reach the 100 XBH threshold in 2001.


It is surprising to find guys who you would think a lot of doubles but do not. I looked up Ronald Acuna, and I thought okay, fast player and a power hitter, who will hit some long balls short of the fence, and also take advantage of his speed and outfielders playing deep, on some flares. He hit 22 doubles last year, in 715 plate appearances. Of course, I don't know how many doubles he ran into singles last year...

It also makes Castellanos' feat of 50+ doubles last year more impressive, as I assume, with his average speed, there were no cheapies in there.
   44. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:41 PM (#5919966)
Huge HR numbers sound like a recipe for few 2Bs. Just how many XBH do you expect from a man? If you're hitting 70 HRs presumably that's in part because a bunch of balls that in ordinary years would have bounced off the wall for doubles climbed over it for HRs.

There's some speed involved in doubles, but I think that most doubles are doubles no matter who hits them. They're, you know, balls that are hit down the line but that get cut off before they reach the corner, that sort of thing. Looking over single-season leaderboard: Earl Webb stole 8 bases in his career. Ducky Medwick never topped six in a season. George Burns managed double digits a few times. Hank Greenberg was no speedster. Another way to look at it: Rickey's 162 game average for doubles was 27; Brock 30; Raines 28; Coleman 21; Morgan 27; Wilson 21. Compare Dunn 27; Ortiz 43; Fisk 27; Molina 31. I'm not seeing much pattern.
   45. flournoy Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5919968)
Your point is well taken, but I think Rickey in particular (and perhaps some of the other speedsters) rarely tried for extra bases since he figured he'd just steal instead.
   46. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5920004)
There is no guaranty of success for a prospect, but that is pretty across the board he is going to be a star, isn't it?

I think the answer to that is more "maybe" unless you have a broad definition of "star." If every season we have 10 new players on the verge of stardom (with the occasional overlaop on top 10 lists from one year to the next) then there should be at least 75-100 "stars" in MLB at any given time. In 2019, 46 position players and 22 pitchers had 4+ WAR. Of those 46 pos players, only 20 had 4+ WAR in 2018, another 10 had 3+ while all but 2 of them played at least some and 6 others had only half-seasons. Only 7 of the pitchers had 4+ WAR and another 3 had 3+ WAR in 2018 and 3 of the guys who didn't make it to 3 WAR might be considered stars (the injured Strasburg for sure, probably the injured Ryu and maybe the young Flaherty).

But neither Ryu nor Flaherty ever made one of the big 3 pre-season top 10 lists (per b-r).

So it's probably something closer to "has a 50% chance of becoming a star in the next few years and a very high probability of being a solid regular." Maybe something like a 50% chance of 20+ WAR and a 90% chance of 15+ WAR before FA. Of course most of that star quality will be in the top 5 so a #9-10 prospect is probably more likely to be in the lower-WAR group.

But I agree with the main point. Cleveland was supposedly willing to trade Lindor for Lux. Lux is 3 years younger than Senzel and currently #2 at MLB but they both have 6 years of control left (but Senzel will be super-2). And of course they couldn't get Lux so Senzel plus something might get it done.

On "age at stardom" ... of the 46 pos players in that list for 2019, 3 hadn't even been in the majors before age 25, another 18 or so weren't stars before 25 and a fair bunch had their first star season at 24. Since we're on the Reds, Suarez had only 2.9 WAR in 2 full seasons of PAs through age 24. Springer didn't make the majors until 24 for a half-season (better than Senzel's). There are also guys like Muncy and Judge (injury) but then Senzel would probably have been in the majors in 2018 (or Bryanted) if not for injury and then maybe 2019 would have been his breakout year.
   47. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5920022)
Dietrich, as I recall, was playing hurt (of course, you'd almost have to be if struggling that much) and still ended up with an OPS+ (100) close to his usual territory and grading as a league average player overall, thanks to the hot start and low-error defense at second.
I imagine he'll have to settle for a minor league deal, but I'd absolutely look at him if I had a lefty bat bench spot open.
   48. Greg Pope Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5920035)
There's some speed involved in doubles, but I think that most doubles are doubles no matter who hits them.

I learned this very early in fantasy. I was in a league that had doubles as a category. Back in the early 90's the only projections I could get were in magazines and they didn't have doubles. I drafted fast guys thinking that they probably hit a lot of singles that they stretched into doubles. Not a good strategy. I learned quickly that the power hitters were the ones who hit doubles. Line drives either over the OF's head or hard hit balls in the gap that went to the wall. That's how doubles are hit.
   49. bfan Posted: January 28, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5920060)
You weren't kidding.

Derek Dietrich through June 2: .262/.373/.700 (153 PA)
Derek Dietrich afterwards: .099/.283/.207 (153 PA)


I wonder if constantly getting drilled by a baseball moving at 90+ mph eventually just wears on you.

   50. flournoy Posted: January 29, 2020 at 09:24 AM (#5920137)
Wow, 25 HBP for Dietrich last year. I didn't notice that. That's seven more than Chipper Jones had in his entire career.
   51. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 29, 2020 at 09:42 AM (#5920140)
He set a record by getting hit 6 times in one series.
--
He's a weird player who had a weird season. Babip last year was .176 (which is sub-pitcher levels (.243; DD for his career is at .295) and probably partly bad luck, partly injury/head space/whatever was going on, partly all those homers taking well struck balls out of play). Otoh, a HR/FB of 22.4% is sustainable for him either.
Also, if you look at things like his WAR, you should factor in his defensive position - when he played corner outfield, he was a train wreck, but is serviceable in the infield (despite the it being generally "more difficult" in our calcs).
   52. bfan Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5920179)
That's seven more than Chipper Jones had in his entire career.


And that is with Carlos Zambrano taking aim at him several times a year.
   53. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5920184)
I wonder if constantly getting drilled by a baseball moving at 90+ mph eventually just wears on you.
If so, he should have maybe considered making an effort to get out of the way rather than leaning into any pitch that was even slightly off the plate.
   54. flournoy Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5920186)
Do HBP rates and BB rates show an inverse relationship? That has long been my hypothesis.

Speculation time:

Chipper Jones had a short swing, quick reactions, and quick hands. Because of that, he was able to wait before committing to swinging at pitches, allowing for increased pitch recognition abilities, resulting in high walk numbers and greater ability to get out of the way of would-be HBPs. Jeff Francoeur, for example, had a long loping swing. He had to commit early, and as a result, didn't walk much and got hit a lot more than someone like Chipper.

EDIT: I should note, that players who are trying to get hit by pitches (Craig Biggio, Ron Hunt, etc.) are to be ignored for these purposes.
   55. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5920189)
53--agreed. Dude was very focused on getting hit by pitches which is what made Counsell furious and had him challenge the umps. Dietrich pretty much mocked the Crew that series in their efforts to have the umps do something. Something must have changed though as his pace decreased as the season happened.
   56. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:44 PM (#5920194)
On my 51 - I (obviously?) meant to say his HR/FB was NOT sustainable.
--
55/Renner app*: Huh? His HBP rate went up over time (as he struggled). Here's his HBP numbers before, during, and after that series:

Pre: 196 pa, 9 hbp, .230/.344/.594
During: 17 pa, 6 hbp, .200/.529/.400
Post: 93 pa, 10 hbp, .092/.258/.184

Prior to that Milwaukee series, he was hitting .143/.280/.262 that month (51 PA) - he was probably trying to get on by any means possible.


* I enjoy your screen name.
   57. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5920197)
56--I totally forgot how he missed so much time. So bad on me. Apologies

Part of me gets hey you do what you have to do to get that major league check. But seriously, lose the ####### smirk.
   58. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 29, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5920208)
54/flournoy: I think so? I've never checked. Counter could be: players who walk go deeper into counts, leading to more opportunities to get hit.
Alternately, high hbp guys have, I think, low walk totals as a rule - in part because they reach base before they could draw a walk! So, it might be good to look at this on a cohort basis.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Mike Emeigh
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-19-2020
(49 - 12:55pm, Feb 19)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread 2020
(1381 - 12:45pm, Feb 19)
Last: Der-K: at 10% emotional investment

NewsblogRob Manfred offers little insight, shows contempt for reporters in press conference
(119 - 12:42pm, Feb 19)
Last: Der-K: at 10% emotional investment

NewsblogDisciplining Astros not as easy for MLB as Altuve revealing a tattoo
(28 - 12:41pm, Feb 19)
Last: Pops Freshenmeyer

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (February 2020)
(127 - 12:21pm, Feb 19)
Last: I Helped Patrick McGoohan Escape

NewsblogHow will the Red Sox market a Mookie-less team? - The Boston Globe
(69 - 11:20am, Feb 19)
Last: Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield

NewsblogPosnanski: Baseball 100 Rules
(635 - 10:56am, Feb 19)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogOakland Athletics off the radio waves in the Bay Area, commit to A’s Cast stream
(20 - 10:27am, Feb 19)
Last: Vitor Artur

NewsblogYankees’ Brett Gardner wants fan making bizarre sexual claims kept away from his family, MLB stadiums
(5 - 9:53am, Feb 19)
Last: Gonfalon Bubble

NewsblogFeinstein: In the Astros scandal, Rob Manfred has taken a bad situation and made it worse (WaPo)
(4 - 9:48am, Feb 19)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020
(596 - 9:36am, Feb 19)
Last: AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-18-2020
(34 - 8:03am, Feb 19)
Last: Der-K: at 10% emotional investment

NewsblogWhitley's new strategy: Less work, more weight
(6 - 1:26am, Feb 19)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogPederson, Stripling back to work with Dodgers after no trade
(8 - 10:10pm, Feb 18)
Last: akrasian

NewsblogRosenthal: Carlos Correa rips Bellinger, passionately defends Altuve and says the Astros deserve their 2017 title – The Athletic
(78 - 8:43pm, Feb 18)
Last: bobm

Page rendered in 0.5393 seconds
46 querie(s) executed