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Tuesday, September 20, 2022

No. 60! Judge sixth all time to reach HR plateau

This has been a historic, remarkable year for Aaron Judge, a year destined to be remembered among the greatest offensive performances in baseball history. And fans everywhere can “all rise” for this: the Yankees slugger isn’t even close to done yet.

Judge hit his Major League-leading 60th home run on Tuesday, launching a solo shot to deep left-center field in the bottom of the ninth inning. With the blast, Judge has closed within one big swing of equaling Roger Maris’ 61-year-old American League record for home runs in a single season.

Judge is now one of only three Yankees ever to slug 60 homers in a single season. Babe Ruth established a then-Major League record with 60 home runs in 1927, a mark that stood until Maris surpassed the Sultan of Swat in 1961.

With 16 games remaining, Judge appears poised to surpass Maris and then some. The 30-year-old superstar is also competing for the Majors’ first Triple Crown since the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera paced the AL in batting average, homers and RBIs in 2012.

Judge is just the sixth Major League player (9th time) to hit at least 60 home runs in a single season, a group that includes Barry Bonds (73 in 2001), Mark McGwire (70 in 1998; 65 in ‘99), Sammy Sosa (66 in ’98, 64 in ’01; 63 in ‘99), Maris (61 in ’61) and Ruth (60 in ’27).

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 20, 2022 at 10:39 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: aaron judge

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   1. The Duke Posted: September 20, 2022 at 11:06 PM (#6097205)
13 more !!
   2. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 20, 2022 at 11:08 PM (#6097206)
And Stanton followed it up with a walkoff grand slam to win it by 9-8. Talk about an inning to remember.
   3. Booey Posted: September 20, 2022 at 11:15 PM (#6097209)
I posted this in Omnichatter too, but:

Judge (1/4) - .316
Bogaerts (0/2) - .315
Arraez (0/4) - .314

He'd have a 60 homer Triple Crown if the season ended today.

(But obviously he needs to keep going because a 65 homer Triple Crown is even better!)
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 20, 2022 at 11:20 PM (#6097212)
Historic season in many ways, as noted in TFA:
Prior to Judge this season, no player had completed a calendar day with a lead of 20 or more homers over his closest competition since Ruth led Jim Bottomley and Hack Wilson by 23 homers on the last day of the 1928 season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Judge is head and shoulders above the competition this season, and is now on-pace for 66 HRs this season. More than 400 Total Bases, too.
   5. Cooper Nielson Posted: September 20, 2022 at 11:39 PM (#6097219)
Judge is head and shoulders above the competition

Literally, in many cases!
   6. Rough Carrigan Posted: September 21, 2022 at 12:52 AM (#6097235)
Nevertheless I find myself slightly rooting in favor of the plucky overdog.
   7. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: September 21, 2022 at 07:13 AM (#6097243)
That ninth inning is a prime example of why everybody hates the Yankees.
   8. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 21, 2022 at 07:37 AM (#6097245)
That ninth inning is a prime example of why everybody hates the Yankees.

Here. this one's for you and your fellow Commie-loving friends:

Aaron Judge Joins a Pinstriped-Only Party of Three
It was one of those nights, the kind that reminds you of the fundamental rule of the last baseball century: There are the Yankees, and then there is everyone else. From sepia tones to high definition, no other team does history, then or now, with such grandeur and resonance. ...
   9. The_Ex Posted: September 21, 2022 at 08:11 AM (#6097250)
Cue steroid discussions....3..2..1..go!
   10. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: September 21, 2022 at 08:55 AM (#6097258)
Amphetamines.
   11. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2022 at 09:03 AM (#6097260)
It was one of those nights, the kind that reminds you of the fundamental rule of the last baseball century: There are the Yankees, and then there is everyone else.

I was positive this was an article from the middle of the 2001 World Series, which would have made a lot more sense.

since then, the Yankees ARE everyone else, pretty much - topped off by the biggest choke job in the history of professional team sports.

so yes, I laughed.

Judge is really good, though !
   12. John Northey Posted: September 21, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6097274)
I am surprised we haven't heard tons of 'but is he on PEDs' discussion at this point - probably because he is so big and has always been. Of course, so was McGwire...

This winter will be interesting - who wins the battle to get Judge? Will he stay with the Yankees? Will the Mets open up their vaults big time (safe to say yes, but will it be enough)? The Dodgers clearly have the bucks but it would force them to move one of him or Mookie Betts into CF. The Phillies have the money and need but blew a fortune on Castellanos and Harper for RF so again they'd want Judge in CF. Padres have been big spenders but I think this is a bridge too far for them. The Giants also might be tempted (talk about a perfect team name for Judge to play on). As a Jays fan I know they could afford him (bigger TV audiences than any other team by a mile - often over 1 million viewers on their local station - owned by the same people who own the Jays) but they have 2 big deals coming up quickly in Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero (both in arbitration now but expected to command massive deals very soon).

I'm sure there are others who could fit a $40 mil deal into their budget but dang will it be wild this winter if Judge is willing to leave the Yankees.
   13. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2022 at 10:09 AM (#6097275)
Will the Mets open up their vaults big time (safe to say yes, but will it be enough)?


No.

If the answer had been "yes," there would be no question about "enough."

Cohen has been honest (I think) about his lack of interest in any rival with the Yankees and with his desire to avoid making himself a pariah with the other owners by outspending them into oblivion. He claims that his current payroll level roughly is enough to win, no need to go beyond.

I think both deGrom and Judge may leave town if their postseason results make them unhappy. I think Cohen wants to keep deGrom, and if so, no Judge.

if deGrom leaves anyway - ok, that leaves Cohen in a new position.
   14. Brian Posted: September 21, 2022 at 10:19 AM (#6097278)
If Judge leaves Cashman is gone too. How is that for incentive?
   15. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 21, 2022 at 10:24 AM (#6097279)
The Dodgers clearly have the bucks but it would force them to move one of him or Mookie Betts into CF.


I think the odds the Dodgers want anything to do with Judge are roughly zero. Handing out $300M+ to someone over 30 just isn't their style these days.
   16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 21, 2022 at 10:59 AM (#6097285)
Was reminded that this was nearly a shortened season.

@MLBRandomStats

could you guys imagine if this actually happened and Judge finished with like 58 homers in 140 games or something?


That would have been so baseball.
   17. Mefisto Posted: September 21, 2022 at 11:51 AM (#6097295)
@12: In my view, any team paying lots of money to Judge is insane. I hope my Giants aren't that foolish.
   18. Space Force fan Posted: September 21, 2022 at 12:00 PM (#6097298)
This winter will be interesting - who wins the battle to get Judge?


Every team that fails to sign Judge is a winner. His contract is going to be such a disaster due to age, injury history, regression to the mean, cost/years that even the short-term boost for the next couple of years isn't worth it.
   19. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: September 21, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6097323)
Every team that fails to sign Judge is a winner. His contract is going to be such a disaster due to age, injury history, regression to the mean, cost/years that even the short-term boost for the next couple of years isn't worth it.


So, what you are saying is that it's most likely that Arte Moreno bites the bullet and gives him $500 million for 10 years - because big sluggers over 30 never decline in the mid to late 40s, right?
   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:22 PM (#6097368)
Every team that fails to sign Judge is a winner. His contract is going to be such a disaster due to age, injury history, regression to the mean, cost/years that even the short-term boost for the next couple of years isn't worth it.
Such certainty. Presumably that will scare off all the other teams, making it easier for the Yankees to re-sign Judge.

Judge has made numerous statements about wanting to remain a Yankee, and the team has similarly said retaining his services is its top priority. Judge is worth more to the Yankees than any other team, and he reportedly can make twice as much off-field income by remaining a Yankee instead of going elsewhere. With such a mutually beneficial relationship, it would be surprising if a deal isn’t done, after a certain amount of haggling over the details, of course.
   21. pikepredator Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6097372)
This HR chase is super exciting. Judge is a beast. I hope he wins the Triple Crown! But no way do I want the Red Sox to sign him for a truckload of money.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:30 PM (#6097374)
The Dodgers clearly have the bucks but it would force them to move one of him or Mookie Betts into CF.

And replace Cody Bellinger???!!!1!! Never!

Actually I hear a rumor that Manfred is considering allowing a fielder to the left of the CF (as you look at the CF!! Good golly this is confusing). :-) Or Mookie might be willing to take the "return to 2B" experiment over the offseason and into spring.

The Cubs could afford two Judges with enough money left over for a Correa. Two Judges in Wrigley could be fun. Not that there's any remote hint the Cubs are planning a return to $200+ M payrolls but a boy can hope.

I don't have a clue who to comp Judge to. If we think "really, really big guys" then maybe Frank Thomas, McGwire, Frank Howard, Mo Vaughn, Ryan Howard. Judge obviously with much more defensive value than any of them so we'd expect him to age better. Like Judge, the last three didn't really establish themselves in the majors until about 25; Howard also had playing time patterns similar to Judge but I don't know if that was injury in Howard's case. Obviously those are not promising comps but they also strike me as the lower end of realistic comps.

A problem in finding other comps is that Judge got such a late start. Guys who have hit anything like this well from 26-30 were usually very good players from 21-25. Add the size issue, add the offensive profile issue and I can't think of anybody that fits. Ortiz maybe. I don't have any particular problem adding Manny, Sosa, F Robinson. Because of that late start, his old school sim scores (thru 29) are useless -- Giles, Khris Davis, Mitchell, Trot Nixom?? Norm Cash isn't a terrible comp I suppose. And of course for all we know, he's now Hank Aaron in his 30s.

It's been a pretty amazing performance for several years now. Even with covid and injuries limiting him to an average of 500 PA per year, he's at 6 WAR per year. It's nearly 8 WAR per 650. Clearly Ortiz, Mo and the Howards were never at this level. Robinson was very durable and averaged 7 on both; Aaron was very durable and averaged just over 8; McGwire wasn't durable but also averaged just 3.5 per year or 5 per 650; Thomas was very durable at these ages and was around 6 on both measures. Mantle was very durable and over 8. After 30 ...

Mantle 20 WAR
Thomas 23
McGwire 34
Aaron 60
Robinson 35

Maybe Ted Williams war years can stand in for Judge's late start. Williams averaged 9 WAR from 27-30. Ages 31-39 was 48 WAR. But sure, Pujols 20 and Miggy 15. Very different hitters but similar health and defensive value so how about Larry Walker -- 5/yr, 6/650 for 25-30 then 36 WAR.

A range of 25-45 WAR is ... not that useful. 8/$320 might strike the right balance between auction pricing, risk and headline number.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:37 PM (#6097375)
Non-sequitur (me??) but the mention of the Red Sox and Judge has me wondering ... how has the launch angle revolution played out in Fenway? The Monster is an easy reach for a RH power hitter but obviously you only get the big reward for the high-arching HRs. I can't say for sure but it seems to me the LA emphasis has been more about "looping liner" HRs that go 400 feet than mile-high flyballs that land 10 feet over the wall and that the looping liners probably wouldn't clear the Monster. But the LA emphasis might help generate more RF HRs there.

Anybody have the last decade of HR/FB and HR/contact for Fenway? Does it follow the general trend? Is it possible to break that down by direction?
   24. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6097391)
This HR chase is super exciting. Judge is a beast. I hope he wins the Triple Crown!
The batting average splits suggest Judge has the momentum:

Post All-Star: Judge .372; Bogaerts .314; Arraez .277
September: Judge .475; Bogaerts .377; Arraez .286
Last 30 Days: Judge .424; Bogaerts .398; Arraez .260
Last 15 Days: Judge .467; Bogaerts .310; Arraez .308
Last 7 Days: Judge .500; Bogaerts.200; Arraez .174

This assumes that HRs & RBI are wrapped up, which seems certain for HRs and pretty close for RBI.
But no way do I want the Red Sox to sign him for a truckload of money.
Wy would Boston pay Judge when they wouldn’t pay Mookie Betts?
   25. pikepredator Posted: September 21, 2022 at 05:32 PM (#6097397)
Wy would Boston pay Judge when they wouldn’t pay Mookie Betts?


That's part of the reason I wouldn't want them to pay Judge. We've still got a few great players we can throw money at.

Anybody have the last decade of HR/FB and HR/contact for Fenway? Does it follow the general trend? Is it possible to break that down by direction?


There is Some limited Fenway HR data there. But it is focused more on the 2021 ball, and the data presented isn't sufficient to draw any trend conclusions as far as I can tell. The obvious "Green Monster HRs have a higher launch angle" is there, but we all knew that.
   26. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: September 21, 2022 at 07:23 PM (#6097410)
Isn't this a pretty clear case where the player and the team are clearly the best fit for each other? I mean, the Yankees will give him more than most other teams can, so he's going to make big money, anyway.

And although I hate the Yankees, there is something about seeing a home run record being chased by a player in those pinstripes. The one possible alternative in this regard would be the Dodgers.

   27. Booey Posted: September 21, 2022 at 08:10 PM (#6097418)
The AL single season HR record has been held by a Yankee for 102 years. Might as well continue that trend indefinitely.
   28. bookbook Posted: September 22, 2022 at 08:55 AM (#6097469)
The Mariners could afford to sign Judge, but knowing that franchise’s storied history, might turn him into Richie Sexson 2.0. Correa is going to be everyone’s #1 target I suspect.

(NBA stars of only 6’7” often thrive into their late 30’s. Why not Judge.)
   29. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 22, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6097472)
And although I hate the Yankees, there is something about seeing a home run record being chased by a player in those pinstripes.

Especially a home-grown player. Letting Judge walk after this season would be like the Orioles letting Cal walk after he broke Lou Gehrig's consecutive games streak.

(I'm assuming for sake of argument here that Cal would've been a free agent after 1995, which may not have been the case in reality.)
   30. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 22, 2022 at 11:34 AM (#6097488)
(NBA stars of only 6’7” often thrive into their late 30’s. Why not Judge.)

Not that this means Judge can't do it, but it's very unusual in the NBA. It seems more common for guys to decline in their early-mid 30s. Those that stick around beyond 35 often miss significant time to injury or do so more as role players. Players like Karl Malone are very unusual.
   31. Ron J Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:36 PM (#6097501)
#29 He signed a 5 year extension during the 1992 season.

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