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Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Non-Tendered Players: All 30 Teams - MLB Trade Rumors

Full list of non-tenders.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 03, 2019 at 06:18 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: non-tenders

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   1. . . . . . . Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5905139)
Man I would be all over Danny Hultzen. He may be a shell of what he was at UVA but even that shell can get people out.
   2. Qufini Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:45 AM (#5905144)
There are some good players on that list. Teams may have decided they aren't worth the projected arbitration salary but they could still be solid contributors.

Aaron Sanchez looks like a great bounceback candidate. His strikeouts and walks per 9 IP are right in line with his career norms. A jump in hits and home runs per 9 IP did him in. So he could be a victim of poor batted ball luck or the regular season''s juiced ball. If I'm a team looking for starting pitching depth, I'd offer him a contract. I'd love to see him back on his old team in Toronto.

Edit: just saw the news about Sanchez on the other thread. I withdraw my endorsement.
   3. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5905145)
I don't understand why the Cubs cut him loose...

Are the Cubs running some kind of rehab charity?

They rehabbed Hultzen for two years and his numbers look nominally solid... and they cut him loose.

They gave Drew Smyly a two year deal - half of which was to rehab - and they get absolutely desperate to move him...

Kendall Graveman is another one...
   4. PreservedFish Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:07 AM (#5905152)
Ryan Buchter has a career ERA+ of 147. It appears to be a partial fluke - FIP is 4.01 - but still.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:13 AM (#5905159)
I always get Cesar Hernandez and Yolmer Sanchez confused, and with good reason, and each would seem to be an obviously good player for any team in need of a 2B, or of an overqualified utility infielder.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5905160)
Edit: just saw the news about Sanchez on the other thread. I withdraw my endorsement.

Which other thread?
   7. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5905163)
Are the Cubs running some kind of rehab charity?

They rehabbed Hultzen for two years and his numbers look nominally solid... and they cut him loose.


I've seen speculation that he and the Cubs may have already worked out a minor league deal for him to come back - assuming he doesn't get a major league offer elsewhere. The minor league deals won't happen until after the rule V draft (there's also rumors Morrow may also have a minors deal with the Cubs to continue pitching rehabbing). The idea is that Hutlzen has a longer, and slower, build up process to get ready for the season so he likely wouldn't be ready right off the bat anyway and is going to start in the minors almost where ever he ends up.

Smyly was because they were cheap - and he was bad enough in Texas that they may have not liked how the rehab was going. I assume Graveman is a similar thing - he signed for less guaranteed in Seattle than the Cubs were on the hook for him. Cotton is the guy they're trying that with this year, but he's still got an option and his deal is for way less (and he's further along in his rehab).

I don't really see the downside of taking chances on those guys - it is just money. However, I'd like for one of them to actually work out and stick around though.
   8. puck Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5905165)
The Rockies waived pitcher Tyler Anderson, the Giants picked him up, then the Giants non-tendered him. So were the Giants just looking to negotiate a team-friendly deal, then failing that, let him go?
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5905228)
The Rockies waived pitcher Tyler Anderson, the Giants picked him up, then the Giants non-tendered him. So were the Giants just looking to negotiate a team-friendly deal, then failing that, let him go?


He had knee surgery in June, and hasn't pitched since being claimed. Maybe the reports from his rehab weren't encouraging, and the Giants decided to cut bait on that basis after getting a better picture of his health status?
   10. JRVJ Posted: December 03, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5905277)
Dan Szymborski (@dsymborski) had a really good Tweet storm about this yesterday. Some highlights:

* What you're seeing in the non-tenders is just the inevitable result of teams increasingly seeing $/WAR as a curve rather than a line, something that should always have been the case but empirically wasn't for the first 40 years or so of free agency.

* Teams are willing to pay very little for that first win from each player. If you think that teams see league-average players as worth $16 million a year, you're not current in-tune with how front offices see value.

* For a long time, teams literally bought into the Video Game AI Trade Theorem, which states that you can just get a bunch of one-win players instead of a four-win player. Which, as I talked about endlessly, creates a very interesting situation for the MLBPA. There's no magic bullet to force teams to employ 0.5-win veterans, the Adam Jones types, and pay them handsomely.

* I've maintained -- and still do -- that the MLBPA will *never* be able to grow the pot based on below-averageish veterans again. Growing the player's share will have to focus on years in which players are currently underpaid.

* And the question is: how determined will a 35-year-old veteran, who feels screwed by analytics be to strike for the 21-year-old on the 40-man roster for the first time and making the ~$45K optional assignment minimum for a first timer?

(The thread continues in a different direction from that point).
   11. Walt Davis Posted: December 03, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5905280)
Or maybe he and the Giants have already agreed on a lesser deal.

The surprises to me (barring controversies I'm not aware of):

Cesar Hernandez (would look fine on the Cubs)
Domingo Santana (he was in line for maybe $4-5 M tops and Seattle can't toss away a useful bat at DH/OF)
CJ Cron -- 1.5 WAR 1B for $8 M ... do the Twins have a replacement?
Yolmer -- win a GG, get the boot, a Javy-Yolmer DP combo sounds fun

Not a surprise but Gausman seems a solid pickup for somebody. FIP last year was 3.98, big jump in K-rate, solid track record for 4/5 starter -- or is he hurt?
   12. Walt Davis Posted: December 03, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5905288)
And the question is: how determined will a 35-year-old veteran, who feels screwed by analytics be to strike for the 21-year-old on the 40-man roster for the first time and making the ~$45K optional assignment minimum for a first timer?

But as Dan himself points out, this 35-year-old vet won't be going on strike because he doesn't have a job to go on strike from. If he means how likely is it the handful of older vets with guaranteed contracts (the Pujols types) will go on strike than that's a valid question but they represent only a tiny portion of the membership right now and won't be able to sway the voting that much. Last year there were (near as I can tell) only 90 players 35+ who appeared in the majors. A good number have already announced their retirements, another good number are about to be retired whether they want to or not, a large boatload are back-up Cs and other similar fringe players so it will be tough to argue that the Pujols-types will be able to sway lots of voters.

This changing of the guard has already happened. The old vets won't be able to run the show anymore. So the big question is the one it's mainly always been -- will somebody like Stanton (who's got his for a good long time) be willing to strike for those who haven't. But the aged vets have nothing to lose at this stage.
   13. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 03, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5905290)
i agreed with dan's thread.

gausman: issue was cost and he's been more effective as a reliever than starter, but not worth that price in the pen. he should do fine contract wise.

yolmer is kinda bad, no? i'd eyeball domingo santana but he was a train wreck in the corners last year.
   14. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 03, 2019 at 02:29 PM (#5905296)
Cesar Hernandez (would look fine on the Cubs)


He would have gotten something like 11M in his final arb year. Low end starter/high end utility player who has more brain farts than you'd like on the field. Someone with a black hole in the infield will sign him. He still might be able to fake SS for a few games a year.
   15. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5905316)
yolmer is kinda bad, no? i

Right, he can't hit at all. He's probably just a current day Darwin Barney; that guy isn't helping this Cubs team.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5905321)
yolmer is kinda bad, no?


If you believe BIS's data, he's a good enough fielder to have been a 2+ win player in each of the last three years. UZR doesn't like him quite that well, and I'm also kind of skeptical, but the argument can be made if someone wants to make it.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5905323)
the inevitable result of teams increasingly seeing $/WAR as a curve rather than a line


Yep yep yep!
   18. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5905324)
yolmer is kinda bad, no? i

Right, he can't hit at all. He's probably just a current day Darwin Barney; that guy isn't helping this Cubs team.
Best at yolming I've ever seen, though.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:33 PM (#5905329)
If you believe BIS's data, he's a good enough fielder to have been a 2+ win player in each of the last three years. UZR doesn't like him quite that well, and I'm also kind of skeptical, but the argument can be made if someone wants to make it.

Well, back when he was a 90 wRC+ guy, UZR had him around 2 wins. 2017 97 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, 2018 87 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR.
   20. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5905331)
Well, back when he was a 90 wRC+ guy, UZR had him around 2 wins. 2017 97 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, 2018 87 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR.


Sure, but BIS had him at 3.5 in 2017 and 2.6 in 2018, so for whatever reason, it does seem to be consistently grading him out higher than UZR does.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5905338)
Sure, but BIS had him at 3.5 in 2017 and 2.6 in 2018, so for whatever reason, it does seem to be consistently grading him out higher than UZR does.

Yeah, I'm just saying you didn't need to believe BIS to have him as a 2-win player, before last year. But that 74 wRC+ is conserning, especially given it took a .324 BABIP to even get there. His power just totally disappeared.
   22. escabeche Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5905342)
Somebody could sign Tim Beckham, Caleb Joseph, Joey Rickard, and Kevin Gausman and get the 2017 Orioles back together!
   23. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5905345)
Don't give the 2020 Orioles any ideas.
   24. escabeche Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5905349)
The 2020 Orioles would be substantially improved by adding Beckham and Gausman, and possibly Rickard too, I must sorrowfully report.
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5905355)
Yeah, I'm just saying you didn't need to believe BIS to have him as a 2-win player, before last year.


Ah, OK, I get you.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5905669)
He would have gotten something like 11M in his final arb year. Low end starter/high end utility player who has more brain farts than you'd like on the field.

Cesar Hernandez the last 4 years: 10 bWAR, 2 bWAA, 11 fWAR, -3 Rfield, +18 UZR, slightly above-average in 2019 by bWAR, slightly below by fWAR

That is not the player you describe and while one can argue that it's not worth $11 M in today's market, it's worth close enough to that that a competing team like the Phils should have held onto him and, especially if a team can get him on a 1-year deal <$11M, a nice 2B stopgap in a FA market very short on 2B. The Cubs have a hole at 2B that he would nicely fill. (As to Yolmer, I wasn't suggesting him for the Cubs, I'm saying it would be fun to watch him and Javy play defense together.)

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