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Monday, July 20, 2009
Mets rejected request of package of F-mart, Niese, Parnell and Ruben tejada for Halladay.
This was a very reasonable request by Toronto. I would have to guess the Mets are adverse to paying the price to keep Halladay around and don’t want to give up four of their better prospects. As I said with Brian Cashman on last night’s show, and this goes double for Minaya, he better be right on these guys or he will regret watching Minaya beat him in Philly.
Heyman is on MLB.Harold as we type…
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No. Gardner will hit worse than he has, but he's an excellent defender and the Yankees need pitching far more than a CF right now, especially an expensive one in his 30's.
Anyway, if Montero is traded (and it will break my heart if he is) it better be in a deal for someone like Halladay.
Why would any team pay the same price for a lesser return? That makes zero sense. You're pretty much saying that it wouldn't be worth anything to (let's say) the Phillies to have Doc for a playoff push and potentially heading their postseason rotation.
Here is a video I took of him hitting a double, in case you're interested.
From a scouting report on him from earlier this year
I don't know about this, and don't really understand why Tejada is getting talked-down so much in this string. Do the scouts hate him? I mean, the kid is putting up a decent OBP in AA as a 19 year old -- he's not hitting the cover off the ball, but is a 691 OPS really that bad from a 19 year old middle infielder at that level? And Binghamton isn't a friendly place to hit, if I recall.
As for Havens, the dude is three years older than Tejada and at a lower level, putting up pretty awful numbers. Someone mentioned the low BABIP but... 228/341/416? He's a college kid, he shouldn't be struggling in High-A like this.
None of this even mentions the sudden and terrifying uncertainty I have about Reyes' future in New York. I don't know what it was, but about two weeks ago I started getting a really bad feeling about his chances of sticking around. With the Mets floundering like this and with everyone clamoring for an "image makeover", doesn't he seem like the likeliest player to move? A young, talented SS who is under contract will bring back a TON in a trade -- I could see Omar doing it.
But it's the same hitter I saw - and he had a good series, 2 home runs on the 14th, a triple down the rf line on the 15th...
Sure, he's hitting 277/376/457 (per fangraphs) but it's a fortunate line. He's striking out 30% of the time and his BABIP is .361. He's probably closer to 250/350/420 right? Do scouts like him? I saw him at Brooklyn a few times and not only did he go hitless but he looked bad.
Edit: Levski, tell me if you agree, that league is as weak as I can ever remember it. Usually, there are one or two watchable prospects on each NYPL team. This year, you're lucky to get one. I've seen 6 teams so far and Valle and Westmoreland are the only who jump out at me as position prospects with any future.
I don't know about this, and don't really understand why Tejada is getting talked-down so much in this string. Do the scouts hate him? I mean, the kid is putting up a decent OBP in AA as a 19 year old -- he's not hitting the cover off the ball, but is a 691 OPS really that bad from a 19 year old middle infielder at that level? And Binghamton isn't a friendly place to hit, if I recall.
As for Havens, the dude is three years older than Tejada and at a lower level, putting up pretty awful numbers. Someone mentioned the low BABIP but... 228/341/416? He's a college kid, he shouldn't be struggling in High-A like this.
I've been arguing this point re: Havens vs. Tejada to Sam and Russlan. The injuries have really hurt Havens' development. He's relatively old and needs to start matching up with his peers at higher levels. He's been reasonably productive, but it would be a stretch to move him up to AA at this point. Unlike the teens that the Mets have been promoting aggressively, the time is ticking on Havens. How he finishes 2009 will be very important.
As for Tejada, what I love in particular is the resilience. The Mets putting him in the FSL last year and AA this year could have been disastrous. He was overmatched in the FSL last year and overmatched for the first month of this year. But rather than let his confidence get crushed, he adjusted and slowly bounced back. By now, I don't think anyone thinks that he's at the wrong level. That type of resilience will be so useful when he gets to the majors.
Davis went 2-4 with a double, homer, and a walk to raise his batting line to .286/.386/.500.
Also, BABIP for batters isn't quite the same as that of hitters so a .300 BABIP isn't necessariily what you'd expect. A .360 BABIP is sustainable. His strikeouts aren't out of control (25% of his plate apperances).
He is showing some pretty drastic platoon splits though so I could envision an Evans/Davis platoon at that position, possibly as soon as next season.
(after the bar exam pls)
I hear BABIP for pitchers is not the same as BABIP for throwers :-)
I'd go to that.
I hear BABIP for pitchers is not the same as BABIP for throwers :-)
What David Murphy is to leftfield, I am to typing.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2009/07/mets-6-nationals-2-spin-city.html
At a recent game at Citi Field, scouts had assembled in a row of seats behind home plate. Mets VP Tony Bernazard showed up during play and wanted a seat occupied by a young Diamondbacks scout. Bernazard’s deputy, already seated in the row, suggested to the Mets VP that he wait until the half-inning ended, to minimize the disruption. Bernazard then ripped into his Ivy League-educated deputy with a profanity-laced tirade, mortifying observers in the section.
My goodness, Bernazard needs to go. I've heard way too many bad things about him in the last couple years.
The ONLY question about Halladay is whether you think your team will be competitive in the next two years. If the answer is no, stay away. Otherwise, mortgage the farm. He will instantly be your pitching anchor.
This seems to be true in a lot of places, probably because of a series of relatively weak drafts recently. The Southern League is as devoid of prospects as I can ever remember (especially hitters), and the Carolina League isn't much different.
-- MWE
"I don't see how Toronto fans can expect to get more than one super prospect, a very good one and a couple of mildly useful players."
If we can't expect more than that for arguably the most valuable (if not, he's top 3) pitcher in the league with a year and a half left on a bargain contract, J.P. had better stay away from the phone. Prospects aren't going to get it done for me, unless we're looking at at least 5 or 6 blue chip position players (preferably infielders and catchers). Toronto has enough pitching.
Very true. As we've seen this year, the Jays have surprising depth in starting pitching prospects - between Marcum, Litsch, Romero, Richmond, Janssen, Cecil, Purcey, Ray, Rzepcynski, Mills, and so on, they can almost certainly cobble together an effective enough rotation for the next couple seasons - especially with the plus defense that they can throw out around the field. What the Jays need is young hitters.
Note: McGowan not listed, as it looks like he's done.
Am sure the Newark Bears would listen if he called.
Nothing terribly new. It's just a matter of him already being behind on his rehab schedule, and continuing to fall further behind. Given that he already had Tommy John, he's now had major surgery on his shoulder, and it's been over a year since he even threw a ball competetively, it's getting a bit concerning - especially when combined with this from a couple weeks back:
Wow- if you haven't read the above article, that's literally his whole argument. Which I guess is to say there isn't one. If you were going to make the argument it pretty much has to be an emotional one. I can't believe there is any way to project WAR's or future playoff odds or net asset values and say this is a good offer for the Mets. If Halladay makes every start he is a 10 WAR player (for the rest of the contract) which is at least what you would expect from Neise over 6 years if he makes absolutely no improvement...and for less money. Oh yeah and even though Halladay will be a 10 WAR player, those first three wins that come this year have absolutely no value to the Mets. Since the Blue Jays won't let teams negotiate before pulling the trigger, I think we can assume Halladay isn't interested in talking until he becomes a FA so we can add two draft picks to the analysis but I'd still rather have F-Mart.
From a playoff odds perspective, I think it comes down to this, do the Mets anticipate being somewhat competitive for at least a year or two from 2010-2015? Compensating for the loss of nearly free talent like Neise and F-Mart might cost them oh 100 million or so on the FA market.
You stay classy, Bernazard. And this guy is considered by some to be prime GM material?
Am sure the Newark Bears would listen if he called.
If he started his tirade out with "Hey Mr. Princeton" or something, I'd give him a pass.
Heh.
"And that over there is Harvard."
"Uh, that's just a barn."
"Well, looks like someone went to Yale."
Not that I care about the Mets or any of their prospects, but this is just wrong. First, 10 WAR over a year and a half is worth much more than 10 WAR spread over six years. Secondly, even though the Mets are almost certainly out of it this year, those wins still have value to them. There is a difference in the attendance they will see over the rest of the year if they claw their way back towards .500 instead continuing their death spiral. A fan may not value any wins in a season that is not a playoff season, but those wins have real value to an actual baseball team, and Halladay's trade value will reflect that.
I really thought Manuel was a pretty good in-game manager last year. This year, he's been a total disaster.
B) If I'm the Mets, I still don't do it without a contract window. If it is true that no one will get to talk to Halladay, then the take isn't going to be that great.
C) Ruben Tejada is not a prospect, walks in AA don't mean much and he strikes out waaaaaay too much to be Luis Castillo. He's young, yes.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=escoba001alc
Am I missing something? I see Tejada having a much better line at 19 in AA vs A+. Almost 100 more OPS+ and better BB:K ratio. All reports on Tejada have him with an excellent glove and great speed. There's a big difference in steals, but the biggest thing for Tejada is how well he adds weight in the next two years. Saying he's not a prospect is a bit of a stretch.
May I ask a really naive question. Why would the Jays refuse to allow a window for negotiations. As is stated above, that hurts how much Toronto can get back in return. This happens a lot, so I know there are good reasons for it but I'm an idiot.
Assuming that it's true, I'm guessing it's PR reasons - it'd look really bad for Toronto if they trade Halladay, and then he immediately signs an extremely reasonable extension that the Jays should have been able to afford. Also, trading him without allowing extension talks gives Jays fans the (false) hope that he'll return here once he hits free agency.
That's the best I can come up with.
29 walks in 320 ABs is nice but it isn't something for a prospect to hang his hat on. And Jackie Rexrode agrees.
This is what Sickles said about the two this winter:
2) Alcides Escobar, SS, Grade B: Should I go with B+ here? Defense is excellent and made huge progress with hitting, though I want to see another good year with the bat.
16) Ruben Tejada, SS, Grade C+: Gets slack on the grade because he was massively rushed to the Florida State League. Controls the strike zone, has promise with the glove, very young.
Escobar is a prospect almost entirely because of the glove, which is reportedly amazing. I haven't heard much at all about Tejada's glove, but I was under the impression it was average. If he is fast, then it doesn't show in the numbers at all. Knowing how to walk is great, but walk rates in the minors are not especially predictive given the quality of pitchers faced, and you need to be able to do something with the balls that are strikes.
Looking at fangraphs and beyondtheboxscore's calculation. the Jays should probably expect along the lines of one top prospect + some lottery tickets or one young player with serious potential and some similar tickets (i.e guys in the lower minors that might have some upsides but also significant question marks) or some quantity package (that seems less likely)
Some trades have been dramatic overpays. Eric Bedard and Mark Teixiera ( to the braves) are probably the two most obvious .
In the end, a GM can not get too caught up over the value of one player. unless he's Bonds / Ruth / William . prospect may or may not pan out. but a panned out prospect is generally worth a lot more than a vet. even a very good one. because your holding him at a primiuem. and the difference in money can be used to... you know, actually sign other players.
Could this have been the Carlos formerly known as ChadBradfordWannabe?
Which they can essentially get by waiting until next year, and taking the draft picks from arbitration, which also gives them the benefit of another year and a half of Halladay (in terms of both on-field and PR benefits). If a team wants to get Halladay, they're going to have to beat what the Jays would get from keeping him for the next 18 months. One top prospect and some lottery tickets doesn't do that.
Get out of my ####### seat, you ####### blogger!
That C+ grade was after a miserable season in A-ball. Tejada is doing better despite being promoted a level. That probably makes him a B- or B prospect in Sickels' eye. And I don't think anyone, even his biggest supporters, are saying anything different.
Good point, I forgot they probably have regions.
Or was it, ¡Salga de mi asiento del #######, usted blogger del #######!
Levski, this is what I get for actually defending you? More thorns in more eyes? You're worthless. And ignored. Bye.
That's never stopped you before.
Levski, this is what I get for actually defending you? More thorns in more eyes? You're worthless. And ignored. Bye.
If Lassus, probably the nicest Met BTFer, is mad at you, you probably need to change your behaviour.
HEY!
Proof that not everything I see on BTF is a snark?
Yes, but was it in street Spanish?
Bringing in a wife-beater was only the first step - now they're embracing a pedophile, too.
Have you ever seen any of the steroid flame wars? (Of course you have, that was a retorical question...)
It was probably over post 151, which apparently used to contain this:
Or was it, ¡Salga de mi asiento del #######, usted blogger del #######!
Not speaking Spanish, I don't know what it means, but I'm guessing it's not terribly nice.
Yes, I saw that, and it's probably just the Babelfish translation of the previous post. Just like last time. Stupid, but so what?
He erased it, so I feel bad now that I quoted it. I've had that happen to me when I've thought better of it 3 minutes too late.
So hard to execute a profanity-laced tirade in classical Castillian.
Our friend thinks it's funny to imitate Spanish-speaking people.
Que malo. Once again I must sugar my own churro.
Maybe you guys can run off and sugar each others churros.
Is it that hard to understand why a Latino person is offended by this behavior?
I PERSONALLY think that a dialogue over email - as opposed to an internet board - between Not Amused and Levski would probably be beneficial, but that's up to them.
Beyond that, the thoughts of the peanut gallery - myself included - are their own, and valid in varying degrees, I guess.
Hey not amused has an ally...
Seriously it started when Levski botched translating a Monty Python skit into a NY Mets baseball context...
and now it has taken on a weird life of its own - and I'm starting to think that Not Amused may have had a point afterall (of course had he wisely ignored Levski it wouldn't have happened)
Well, so would I, so ya got me, there...
So what does Levski do if Bernzard & Omar BOTH get canned? And what if they're replaced by the likes of Krivsky or DePo? The mind boggles...
I'm pretty sure he would find new ways to annoy Mets fans.
Or better yet, the Mets and DBacks swap GMs...
[178] I owe you an alcoholic beverage of your choice.
[180] "So, what do you think, Jackie, have we got a case?" "Like taking candy from a baby!"
I doubt that was the joke. Looks to me like our friend went to Babelfish to get some Spanish, and Babelfish mistook "just" as in "only" for "just" as in "right."
And I don't know what you think "Street Spanish" is, but it assuredly is not that.
Unless I'm misremembering, accurate quoting would have avoided this whole kerfuffle.
I don't know, I went to Babelfish put in "it is just a flesh wound" and got":
if you put in "it is only a flesh wound" you get:
from babelfish
Google translates it as:
which IS accurate, but you lose the connection to the Monty Python joke...
Actually we need to know how that line was dubbed into the spanish language version of the movie for the joke to work
Roy Halladay --> Butchered spanish translations of Monty Python. Of course!
levski made a joke that you found offensive. We get it.
He claims it was a Monty Python / Carlos Delgado free agency reference. You claim it was blatant racism. We get it.
We get it.
Continuing this Woodward & Bernstein act into the deep dark motives of one of the 1,000 off the cuff attempts at humour on this site will only spawn more the same.
Which makes this post just as worthless as the rest! Wheee!
For the love of El Es Aqui, it is not "Street Spanish" for some gringo half wit to accidentally use the cognate of "just" as in "right and fair" when he meant to translate "just" as in "only [a flesh wound]."
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