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1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 13, 2022 at 06:54 PM (#6081557)So in advance of their four game series in Toronto, Baltimore has placed LHP Keegan Akin, RF Anthony Santander on the restricted list for being unvaccinated. In turn the Orioles have called up RHP Rico Garcia, CF Kyle Stowers.
Naturally Willi Castro leads off with his 2nd HR of the year (136 PA). Blame the White Sox broadcasters for the jinx.
I don't want to be "that guy" who jumps to conclusions off a small sample size but - I'm starting to wonder if Strasburg is a little injury prone.
;)
At the conclusion of every away/Canada series, virtually every player has been returned to the minors, and the unvaccinated players have been put back on the major league roster. Sometimes the call-ups were good contributors (ie Jharel Cotton of the Twins, I thought he was real good) but mostly they've had their cup of coffee, and hopefully some good pancakes with maple syrup, and maybe a decent bottle of beer, before being sent back down to AAA.
Added: That indicates to me that the call-ups were inferior players. Boston, specifically, had to shuffle their team for their trip, and Seattle did not officially put last year's Cy Young winner Robbie Ray on the restricted list, but they did shuffle their rotation and pitch him on short rest to avoid bringing him and being denied at the border.
H/R record and splits might be another indicator. The Jays do have the #2 home WP in the AL so far at 643 (Yanks at 788 -- crikey!). They also have the 3rd-best overall record so that's hardly definitive. They are a half-game ahead of the Rays which might annoy the Rays but likely won't make a difference as neither is catching the Yanks but both are an excellent bet for the WC spots.
And of course even a 6-win position player is producing about 1 win per 25 gamees. The visitors are usually dropping 2-4 guys but they aren't all superstars, most of them are probably not missed at all. Even when somebody like Trout gets hurt, the direct impact on other teams will be pretty trivial. The Angels might well have won 7 fewer games last year due to Trout's injury but those 7 wins were spread across about 120 games and maybe as many as 17-18 opponents.
** obviously much more than that last year but replacement level so far this year ... even last year was about 1 win per 5 starts.
As another example, the White Sox dropped Kendall Graveman and Dylan Cease. Cease started the game before on 4 days (but not 4 games) rest -- he may or may not have started anyway, the Sox had a day off between the two series, so start him on 4 or 6 days rest. Graveman is the main setup guy and has been excellent this year with 0.8 WAR in 1/3 of a season ... but missing 1/54 of the season isn't a big deal. Graveman might have pitched in any of the 3 games but the Sox were trailing entering bottom 8 in all three games, Hendriks never appeared so it's unlikely Graveman would have made any difference.
I also see the Yanks were fully vaxxed so didn't lose anybody. The AL East teams would be the most disadvantaged but it's hard to see it making much difference other than whether the Jays finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the division (while still probably making a WC spot). Unfortunately I couldn't find a list of players who've skipped Toronto this year.
Statistically the difference between AAA and MLB players in 28 games is only 1 or 2 games, based on WAR.
And that was my original answer. But I changed it because I wanted to see some responses.
I'm not smart enough, or dumb enough, to get into a battle with Walt Davis over WAR.
But based on daily observation, the Jays have won two, maybe three, games this year at home because of the vaccine mandates. I might be wrong, statistically, but I'm trying to be empirically honest.
Anyway, pretty impossible to answer if nobody's collected a list of who's missed games. If it is a lot of really good players then I'll rethink my guesstimate.
Still, in terms of playing time, the guys who miss the series are not usually being replaced by the scrubs who are brought up. If a starting OF misses the series, he's replaced by their current #4 OF, not the glove-only CF they brought up for three games. If that's over 3 months for the other team, that's a significant downgrade in their quality because the scrub ends up getting 200 PAs as the new 4th OF. But if the situation only exists for 3 days, then the scrub gets 0-1 PAs and maybe some defense/PR time. If he gets more than that, it's probably a legit prospect they want to take a look at.
Anyway, the Jays are 18-10 at home but also 17-14 on the road -- they're a good team. That looks like the 4th best road record in the AL, seems within random. Although they're 18-10 at home, their run differential is just +5 (on the road +29). If I counted correctly, they're 9-2 at home in 1-run games. That could be the absence of a Kendall Graveman or a key hitter having its maximum impact in 2-3 games or just standard good luck.
Wonder what it says. Chases with 2 strikes? Doesn't chase? Hey, the next batter is the Cubs' best hitter, don't walk this guy?
Cards win 7-5 on a big inning and a couple of add-ons. Fun!
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