As always...

HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!

Mets finally decided they are "puttin' the band back together" - former phenoms Alvarez, Vientos, Baty, and Mauricio are all reunited, and it's a party at CitiField.

ok, more of an Irish wake. but still

The new Savant layout is pretty cool. Between Batting Run Value, Baserunning Run Value, and Fielding Run Value, all you need is replacement level and positional adjustment to get a quick and dirty savantWAR (sWAR?), no?

Jasson Dominguez, the 20-year old switch hitting center fielder a/k/a ‘The Martian’ for the otherworldly ability he displayed as a teenager, is making his MLB debut for the Yankees tonight, fittingly in Space City. Dominguez has been compared to Mantle & Trout, so no pressure, eh? Only 9 games at AAA, but it was an impressive .419/.514/.581 at the plate. Dominguez also did well in spring training with the big club, and could be the regular center fielder as early as 2024, although that may depend on his September. Also debuting is Austin Wells, regarded as a bat first catcher at this point.

A 2-run HR by Dominguez in his 1st MLB PA! Off Justin Verlander even. Not bad.

Austin Wells, not being as otherworldly as The Martian, settles for a single to RF in his first MLB plate appearance. Good start for the kids.

In lesser news, Altuve out of the game after fouling a ball off his leg.

A 2-run HR by Dominguez in his 1st MLB PA! Off Justin Verlander even. Not bad.


Pretty freaking nuts. I used to discount toolsy 5'9 players but recent history has shown that is stupid. Something obviously clicked for him in July and the offseason hype train is gonna be nuts. CF and SS look set for the next decade or so.

The highly-touted Dominguez and Mets phenom Mauricio both debuted tonight - but not on my TV in the NYC market.

apparently each game is on Amazon Prime or Paramount or Hulu or Disney Plus or wherever the hell else they put games that aren't cable or network television.

now excuse me, I need to re-set the bear traps on my lawn (and remove the latest carcasses)....

[Mauricio's first AB sounds fun !]

Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
1h

More than two years had passed since a Met hit a ball that hard. The last was Pete Alonso in Aug. 2021.

Mauricio's double was also the 11th-hardest hit ball by any Major Leaguer this season.

Bottom of the 8th, down 1 to the team immediately ahead of them in the division, Reds get a double and David Bell (apparently) calls for a sac bunt to move the runner to third. Pretty normal play - except there's already one out? Leiter strikes out the next hitter and the scoring chance is missed. I don't get the one-out bunt call there at all.

Contreras with his 16th hr of the year to tie the game up. Cardinals are 3 games back behind the Pirates for last place in the central, the first goal is to not be in last place, a series against them can change that.

Lots of HRs for the Yankees tonight, including Aaron Judge’s 30th of the season (despite missing two months). That’s also #250 for Judge’s career, tying Graig Nettles for 10th place on Yankees Career HR list. Going to be tough for Judge to get higher than 3rd on that list, IMHO. It’s also the fewest games for a player to get to 250 HRs in MLB history. 6-2 Yankees in 6th.

MOST DOUBLES BY A DODGER

Johnny Frederick BKN 1929 52
FREDDIE FREEMAN LAD 2023 51
Shawn Green LAD 2003 49
Babe Herman BKN 1930 48
FREDDIE FREEMAN LAD 2022 47
Wes Parker LAD 1970 47

Parker had a nice year, co-starring in an episode of "The Brady Bunch" in January, before producing a weird season of 10 HR and 111 RBI and a .319 AVG to go with the 47 doubles. That's his only 70+ RBI season, even though he was the everyday 1B for 8 seasons. Tremendous glove.

Wes was a unique breed of cat - retired at age 33, did a little broadcasting, then played a year in Japan, did well, and retired again.

his family was quite wealthy, and he didn't quite fit in with your typical MLB player in many respects.

he'll turn 84 in November (probably).

now MLBN tells me that Freeman is trying to be "the first member of the 30/60 club" - 30 HR, 60 2B.

he's at 25/51

Pretty freaking nuts. I used to discount toolsy 5'9 players but recent history has shown that is stupid. Something obviously clicked for him in July and the offseason hype train is gonna be nuts. CF and SS look set for the next decade or so.

You are not counting on the "Yankees ruin their prospects" factor, a disease that I think affects 1/3 players. At this point, I think they've thoroughly messed up Osvaldo Cabrera to the point that I'd be surprised if he gets enough service time to become a free agent.

You are not counting on the "Yankees ruin their prospects" factor, a disease that I think affects 1/3 players. At this point, I think they've thoroughly messed up Osvaldo Cabrera to the point that I'd be surprised if he gets enough service time to become a free agent.


IDK. But he's a 20 year old kid who has struck out 3 times in ~40 PAs above AA while being a productive hitter. Also went oppo on his HR yesterday. Hard to take much from what he's done so far but it's pretty promising for what it is.

Another HR for Aaron Judge, #31, 428 feet to right center. He’s hitting home runs at about the same pace as last season, although missing 2 months certainly impacts what would otherwise be another 60 HR season. Still, he has a reasonable chance of finishing 2nd in the league. Perhaps one of our stats wizards can tell us who has done that in the fewest ABs?

#16 - Tatis did it in 224 AB's in 2020!
:-D

Seriously though, Bonds was 2nd in homers in 2003 with 390 AB's, and only 2 homers behind Thome for 1st. Not sure if that's the fewest, but it's gotta be up there.

McGwire was 1st in 1996 with 423 AB's. Has a league leader from the lively ball era ever had fewer than that in a non strike season?

(Ruth led with 11 in 317 AB's in 1918)

Cardinals are figuring out new ways to lose everyday. Pinch hit homerun in the ninth to give up the lead, and then failure to score a tying run in the bottom of the ninth with the men on second and third and one out is just one of many ways.

Mind you, Jordan Walker has a legit chance to win player of the week this week.

Alec Burleson drives in a couple of runs for the Cardinals, giving them a temporary lead of 5-3... as we know this team, that means the Pirates are guaranteed to score at least one run in their upcoming half of an inning.

Pirates make a liar out of me, by refusing to score a run.

Cubs are back in their early-season Pythag inflating mode, outscoring the Reds 24-14 over 4 games and only coming away with a split.

HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!

I think we might need a corollary HOW WILL ZACK GREINKE LOSE TODAY?!?

Holy hell, 1-14 now after losing today's sortof-start (there was an opener it looks like). I mean he hasn't been good but no one deserves this.

Greinke began his career with the Royals by going 13-28 in his first two seasons - and now he's 5-23 with the same team in his last two seasons.

in between? he's 206-114, with zero losing records while winning 10+ games in 14 straight seasons (extrapolating re 2020).

WINS

67. Sad Sam Jones (22) 229 3883.0
67. Luis Tiant (19) 229 3486.1
67. Will White (10) 229 3542.2
70. George Mullin (14) 228 3686.2
71. ZACK GREINKE (20, 39) 224 3366.1
71. Jim Bunning+ (17) 224 3760.1
71. Catfish Hunter+ (15) 224 3449.1

2-run HR by Jasson Dominguez gives the Yankees a 3-1 lead @ Houston. Would have been a 3-run HR had the umpire not called ball 4 a strike to Judge, despite it being two balls outside. Oh well, that’s life.

in between? he's 206-114, with zero losing records...

Not quite. He was 10–14 in 2010.

#misseditbythatmuch

MOST HR BY A MET, SINGLE SEASON

1. PETE ALONSO • 2019 53
[PETE ALONSO • 2020 43 extrapolating to 162 G]
2. PETE ALONSO • 2023 41 and counting
2. Carlos Beltrán • 2006 41
2. Todd Hundley • 1996 41
5. PETE ALONSO • 2022 40
5. Mike Piazza • 1999 40

7. Darryl Strawberry • 1987 39
7. Darryl Strawberry • 1988 39
9. Carlos Delgado • 2006 38
9. Carlos Delgado • 2008 38
9. Howard Johnson • 1991 38
9. Mike Piazza • 2000 38

13. PETE ALONSO • 2021 37
13.Dave Kingman • 1976 37
13. Dave Kingman • 1982 37
13. Darryl Strawberry • 1990 37
17. Howard Johnson • 1987 36
17. Howard Johnson • 1989 36
17. Dave Kingman • 1975 36
17. Mike Piazza • 2001 36

20 36+ HR, 8 players
this franchise still has season ticket holders from Day 1.

CAREER HR AS A MET
1. Darryl Strawberry 252
2. David Wright 242
3. Mike Piazza 220
4. Howard Johnson 192
5. PETE ALONSO 187
6. Dave Kingman 154
7. Carlos Beltrán 149
8. Michael Conforto 132
9. Lucas Duda 125
10. Todd Hundley 124

at his current pace, Alonso claims the top spot before the 2025 All-Star break.

Alonso claims the top spot before the 2025 All-Star break

.

If he's still on the team.....

Jordan Walkers week.

24 pa, 21 ab, 12 h, 2 doubles, 3 hr, 4 r, 7 rbi, .571/.583/1.095/1.679. Good rate stat, so-so run driving stats.

Justin Steele is freaking cruising.

Only 11 games today, meaning 8 teams aren’t playing on a Monday national holiday. One would think MLB would be able to better optimize the schedule, but the same thing happens on Memorial Day.

Only 11 games today, meaning 8 teams aren’t playing on a Monday national holiday. One would think MLB would be able to better optimize the schedule, but the same thing happens on Memorial Day.

I seem to recall a season not too long ago when not only was every team playing on all the in-season holidays, but a team was only scheduled for one holiday home game that year and requested a doubleheader on that date so they wouldn't lose out on the extra ticket revenue. Surprising to see the holidays punted to this extent now.

Well, it’s apparently due to the collective bargaining agreement’s provisions on how many games can be played without a day off. However, I’d have thought they could work around that given how many non-holiday Mondays & Thursdays are available for off days. Or they could offer some other concession to the MLBPA in exchange for playing on Memorial Day, July 4th & Labor Day, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.

However, I’d have thought they could work around that

Manfred is considering this. Including, the not quite well known, mid-week triple headers which include 3 x 5 inning games so the players too can have those special holidays off that everyone likes.

Red Sox with an odd win. They K'd 16 times in 9 innings, but managed 7 hits and 4 BB. However they got 2 HRs and 2 doubles, so managed to plate 7 against the Rays and win 7-3. Bello with a QS and 7K's did enough. Sitting 5 games back in the WC with a number of good teams above them, I don't think they'll get there in the end as the recent Houston-LA-Houston 10 game stretch pretty much did them in and confirmed that they are not up to the standard of what an AL playoff team is this year.
Casas has turned a really rough start into a pretty nice season. I had my doubts but he's up to 2 WAR and a 130 OPS+, so no complaints with that.

Corey Seager continues to rake. Dude has 6.1 BWAR in only 375 AB's. Texas, OTOH, is going the opposite direction, barely hanging onto the last WC position. Who, at the beginning of the season, picked 3 teams from the AL West to make the playoffs?

MN goes up 12-1 so Francona puts in a position player to start the sixth. He's given up two or three more HR already so it's 18-1 at the seventh inning stretch.

Also Royce Lewis hit another grand slam and then came up with bases loaded again but only got a single and 2 more RBI.

fwiw, it was 9-1 starting the 6th. the Twins got 2 more in the 6th with no outs, and then the 3B-C-1B guy Fry entered the game.

fly out, single, fly out, single, fly out - he allowed 2 inherited runners to score for 13-1.

tried again in the 7th, allowed 5 more runs for 18-1.

Fry previously had pitched a scoreless inning this season, just came back from a 4-week IL stint. he also threw one inning in the minors - way back in 2015.

back out there for the 8th
fly out, single, fly out, single, fly out - same sequence AGAIN !

that's incredible......

Also Royce Lewis hit another grand slam and then came up with bases loaded again but only got a single and 2 more RBI.

Bummer. I love a 2 salami game. It doesn't happen often and maybe I'm misremembering, didn't someone have on this year already?

It was Lewis who had a chance at three consecutive just a week ago or so.

Fry back out there for a 4th inning
ground out
ground out
double
HR and it's 20-3
fly out so a 20-3 final

4 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 0 K

of course normally he'd be demoted to the minors for a week since he's useless til then.
but he's really a batter, so maybe not !

Twins have a postion player out there for the ninth and Christian Vasquez is at 2b. Baserunners a go-go so far, Castro sux!

Now it's over, 20-6. Ugly game. Pagan had to get up in the pen but didn't get in, which is not great. What a mess.

Well, it’s apparently due to the collective bargaining agreement’s provisions on how many games can be played without a day off. However, I’d have thought they could work around that given how many non-holiday Mondays & Thursdays are available for off days.

Yeah, the standard Memorial/Labor Day week in the past has been 15 games on Monday, then a much lighter slate on an adjoining Thursday. Looking at 2013 - 16 games Memorial day (TEX/ARI doubleheader then off on Tuesday), just 5 games the previous Thursday. 15 games on Labor Day, 7 games the following Thursday. It's not a complicated setup.

The Angels' lineup is one of the most ragtag I've ever seen.

So I expect them to score 8 runs tonight.

very loud atmosphere in San Diego tonight in spite of their doomed status.

Padres trailed the Phillies 8-1, rallied to 9-7, got screwed by the 3B ump inadvertently blocking an 8th run in the 8th off a double-steal and terrible throw that hit the 3B ump as if he was a veteran C WP-blocker. did not score there.

but in the 9th, 1st and 3rd, 2 out, and 3-2 pitch to Kim with Tatis Jr. waiting on deck and the crowd is LOVING it.

contrast that w the Mets, who 5 days ago were not that much worse off, and I got that $2 secondary-market ticket and CitiField was more than half-empty. 6:40 pm start got us to stay for all 10 innings and a Mets win, but it's not like the place erupted.

a few thousand diehards, yes. but the place sounded nothing like SD tonight.

expectations by fan bases differ significantly by markets.

expectations by fan bases differ significantly by markets.

Maybe SD fans are just better. I'm sure they had really high expectations also, as a roster with Soto, Xander, Manny, Kim, Tatis, Darvish, Musgrove, Hader, etc. would have expected to challenge LA for the West title to start the year. I'm too lazy to look, but I would imagine their pre-season odds of taking out the pennant were probably close, if not better then the Mets odds.

Their fans, though probably disappointed, are at least showing some spirit even though the team has little to play for.

but in the 9th, 1st and 3rd, 2 out, and 3-2 pitch to Kim with Tatis Jr. waiting on deck and the crowd is LOVING it.

Well WTF happened then? I thought you were writing a summary of the game. And then you break into a story about going to a Mets game.

So we're doing like a stream of consciousness thing now?

I read the Omnichatter today. Oh boy.

Four thousand a-holes in Kaufman Stadium.

Well WTF happened then?

If I was writing "a summary of the game," it would take me more than two paragraphs to do so.

I was actually contrasting the mood of the two crowds in a pair of meaningless games.

I would be happy to help if you need assistance in navigating the tens of thousands of baseball-related websites that could give you the result of the meaningless games, and any MLB contest - and you'd be gratified to know that it would take you no more time to find a final score than it took you to post your vitriol here.

Is this really who you wanted to be when you grew up? damn

While I don't think I have ever run over anyone's pet, if I once ran over yours unknowingly, I sincerely apologize.

if that's not it - then I got nuthin'

Im WOke now, fell out of bed
Got my ass to Citi Field
Found my way down there and drank a beer
And looking up I noticed a queer
(is that ok I mean to say?)
Found my seats and grabbed my pad
Made the wire in seconds flat
Found John Stearns upstairs and got a quote
And somebody spoke and I hit the latrine
(you know my wifes cousin's related?)

The above talk about schedules and holidays got me thinking about the Jays current road trip.
After playing a mile high series @COL (lots of blue-shirted supporters out, especially down low behind the third base dugout,) they had a day game @OAK.
The announced attendance was 9,000, the TOR radio team guessed it was about half of that.
Then they have a night game today, at 21:40ET, followed by a get-away game at 12:37PT.
The TOR post-game call-in show hosts were moaning.
(And who can blame them, really? If OAK can only get 4000 to come out for a Holiday Monday day game, why not just make it three day games in a row? It's California in September, who would object? Maybe the Jays themselves or the umpires, but let's face it after a 1 o'clock game yesterday it'll be an early night to bed, and how much can they actually sleep in Tuesday, even if their next game is 18:40 local?)
And what does that Wednesday get-away game get them? To a day off, for both Oakland and Toronto, which the former will use to travel to a series @TEX, and TOR will go home and host the Royals (at 19:07, 15:07, and 13:37ET)

They say hitting a round ball with a round bat is difficult (and conversely so is throwing one past a guy who is holding a menacing piece of lumber) but it's gotta be even harder when you keep changing time zones, packing, unpacking, and repacking, and the start/finish time of your job is different almost every day.

Was it BoSox Alex Verdugo who was bumped recently from their starting lineup because he showed up late to the ball park? Not that a manager or reporter would ever tell you the truth, but was it someone else's fault (traffic?) or he slept through his alarm (problems?) or he lost track of the schedule and just genuinely showed up late? Cora was quoted as pretty angry, so it probably wasn't #1, but it could have been #2, or maybe it was just #3. If it was #1, Verdugo just needs to get a cell phone, and work on his communication skills. If it was #2, I hope he gets help. If it was #3, I sympathize for the guy.

OK, it was Saturday 05August that Verdugo was benched, a 16:10ET start. His previous Saturday games had been
@TOR 13:30ET 01JUL,
vsOAK 16:10ET 08JUL,
ASG/break,
@CHC 12:20ET 15JUL,
vs NYM 19:13ET 22Jul (1:55 delay) (double header),
@SFG 19:15ET 29JUL,
vsTOR 16:11ET 05AUG, (benched)

. . . but let's face it after a 1 o'clock game yesterday it'll be an early night to bed, and how much can they actually sleep in Tuesday, even if their next game is 18:40 local?)

Early to bed isn’t the only option. I vaguely remember an exasperated GM lamenting the frequency of players experiencing the dreaded ‘symptoms of stomach flu’ before a night game that followed a day game.

2 out of 1000 also picked Rheal Cormier? Really??

Copied over from the CHATTER:

I was looking at FG leaderboards and the number of position players with negative WAR total 200. Those with more than 50 at bats number 140, which is something like 4-5 per team.

Does it make sense that a replacement player is 0 but there are so many people playing a significant amount of time with negative WAR? Shouldn't a team be able to staff up with better talent ?

Sure, nearly every team will end up using several replacement-level players, esp on the pitching side but also among position players. Mid-payroll teams tend to have their resources invested in 5-6 main guys; low-payroll teams not even that. Backup C, backup SS, speedy CF -- they just use what they can get cheap (i.e. already have on hand in the system). Then somebody gets hurt and their AAA 3B -- who's probably not even a top AAA 3B -- is now the full-time starter. Even on a high-payroll team, once somebody gets hurt, unless you're willing to go further over the lux tax threshold, your options are very limited. It's convenient for us to use the analogy of a market but, especially during the season, you of course can't just go down to the SS store and replace Miguel Rojas, even if you are the Dodgers. And, generally, replacement-level SS don't appear on the waiver wire all that often. Your SS gets hurt for 4 weeks, your AAA guy comes up, he's terrible for two weeks -- you still decide to live with him for another two weeks rather than work out a trade for somebody else's hopefully slightly better AAA SS.

Two issues. Nobody KNOWS that a guy is true replacement level until they play him for, ohhh, 6000 PA or so. :-) So the first issue is that when teams dip into the replacement well, they don't now for sure what they're gonna get. They hope they're getting a guy who's really a 0.5 WAR/650 guy, expect to get a 0 WAR/650 guy but sometimes get a -0.5 WAR/650 guy. Second, in 50-100 PA, randomness plays a big role so even if he is a true 0 WAR guy, he puts up negative WAR in his small sample.

For the most part, the really terrible guys (Segura, Tim Anderson, Profar, Mancini, Abreu) were previously successful vets with reasonably expensive, multi-year contracts. So you have both the "you have to give the guy a shot to work out of it" and the psychological "I can't just walk away from $15 M" factors. The other really terrible guys are mostly young(-ish) players on bad teams where the team wants to give them playing time to work through it because the team wants to find out what they've got. Then there's the backup Cs.

And still for a lot of those guys, teams have walked away pretty early. Pollock is on his 2nd team, just 144 PA on the year. Milw gave Winker a shot for 200 PA. Wil Myers got 141 PA; Josh Harrison 114; Corey Dickerson 152. (Wow, Kris Bryant is actually below replacement.)

B-R doesn't make this easy becasue they pointlessly continue to count most pitchers in the batter table so I'll grab the DBacks as an example. They've used 22 different position players. I assume they had 13 on the opening roster. They picked up two "name" players at the deadling in Pham and Jace Peterson. Peterson has been around replacement-level almost his entire 2700 PA career -- 3.7 WAR with 2.3 of that coming last year in Milw. So even if the opening day roster had no replacement-level guys on it (I'm sure it did), they've dipped into the rest of their 40-man 7 times.

They've had a particular problem at 3B -- Longoria has been a productive part-timer (32 starts) but 29-yo Josh Rojas (40 starts) flopped, 27-yo Emmanuel Rivera (44 starts) hasn't been much better, now Peterson with 16 starts plus they were desperate enough to need Buddy Kennedy for 5 starts. Despite all that, they've managed to wrestle the position as a whole to +0.4 WAR -- not good but at least it's 11th in the NL.

If we look at the NL positions that are below-replacement as a whole:

C: Mets, Miami, Pitt
1B: Cubs (at 0 after a terrible start), Milw, Rox
2B: Pitt, Rox
3B: Mia, Mets
SS: Pitt, SF
LF: Rox
CF: Rox
RF: Pitt
DH: nobody
PH: Rox

So the Rox are very bad. Among those 16 below-replacement slots, 7 are more than 0.5 wins below replacement. Pitt C/RF, Mets 3B and Giants SS are 1 win down.

So here's something that Tom Verducci has snuck into my brain. Last week he wrote about a badly aging player, Josh Donaldson, and the effect high velocity fastballs were having on him and many other older guys. I'm not sure his methodology was particularly sound, but he just graphed some 95+ fastball data against age 36+ players and noted that the bottom has dropped out on their performance the past couple years. This may have been the case forever, but in an age where peanut vendors throw 95+ and more players than ever are signing big dollar deals into the darkness of their late 30s and beyond I wonder if it's more true than before. So two questions:

First, are velocities so high that a lot of older guys not going to be functional by the end of their contracts? Frankly it's becoming hard to find hitters who are performing well after age 35 much less 38 or 41. This should be concerning to teams signing these huge deals because as a group they are really not living up to the dollars committed right now.

Next, changes in speed guns over the years mean that an 80s measure of 85mph is 93 in Statcast today. But how different is it for the average staff? There were a couple high velo guys that fans heard about (eg in 1991 Juan Berenguer was Senoir Smoke because he could hit 95!) but the fascination with heat wasn't there like it is today, and so we may not know how hard average pitchers were throwing. There didn't appear to be a ton of guys throwing 95 before yet there seem to be a bunch throwing 100 today, so the high end appears to be faster than it was in the goode olde days. But how different is it?

My guess is the standard is faster and the men are being separated from the boys both in who can throw it and survive and who can hit it at all. Pitching injuries are sky high and league batting averages have crashed since Driveline and its peers have wrung out those extra MPH from the arms. Aesthetically I'm kind of over the super velo pitching in the same way TTO hitting has stripped so much from the game, but I'm not sure what can be done. Again, it's in my head, not as a full question or essay, but mostly as a cud to work on. I continue to ruminate.


A good recap of pitch speed measurement is here: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-measure-of-a-fastball-has-changed-over-the-years/

Jeepers!

2022 #1 overall pick Jackson Holliday (O's) is debuting in his 4th level of ball today. So far

A 396/522/660 (67 PA) ... that's useful
A+ 314/452/498 (259 PA) ... that's useful
AA 338/421/507 (164 PA) ... that's useful

The power is perhaps a bit light but, for crying out loud, he's only 19. Any reports on his defense? If he can handle SS ...

I'm starting to think the O's draft and develop group might have a clue.

2023 ball at its ... finest???

Bullpen day for the Giants. Ahead 2-0 in the second, Cubs get two guys on so they bring in LHP Scott Alexander to face Cubs' LHB DH of the day Mike Tauchman ... so Ross counters by PHing with Patrick Wisdom. 10-year-old Walt does not remember seeing pinch-hitters in the 2nd. It didn't work of course, now 3-0 Giants in the 3rd -- Cubs get a couple of guys on again so here comes Giants' pitcher #3.

EDIT: bloop single, IF single, walk, bullet misplayed by Joc Pederson, Cubs lead 4-3. Now, for no obvious reason, Morel to PH for Wisdom ... both RHB. So 3 innings, our 3rd leadoff hitter of the day. He pops out, inning over.

Best records since the break:

LAD 30-13
CHC 31-14
SEA 30-14

alas, Milw 27-19

EDIT: bloop single, IF single, walk, bullet misplayed by Joc Pederson, Cubs lead 4-3. Now, for no obvious reason, Morel to PH for Wisdom ... both RHB. So 3 innings, our 3rd leadoff hitter of the day. He pops out, inning over.

At least it's September, so the bench is expanded by... one player.

It's an odd-numbered weekday during an -ember month and the tide is high in Bar Harbor, so the Astros are having a good game, up 9-0. Only six more runs and Montero might be a viable option.

At least it's September, so the bench is expanded by... one player.

Maybe there's a record. Mastro is a switch-hitter so he could come on for Morel vs a RHP, then Amaya, then maybe an injury forcing a pitcher into the lineup. They'll have to bat so maybe a couple of relievers get a PA ... could be 7 different leadoff hitters if we can get this to extras.

Some ungood pitching and Giants 6-4 over the Cubs in the 5th.

There's a big internal debate in the Orioles organization between Henderson or Holliday as the long-term shortstop.

I haven't seen Holliday play. Henderson has been good at short, not great. He makes a spectacular play now and then, and he has an outstanding arm, but he still needs to get some touch on his throws.

Henderson is a Boras client, so the Orioles might be wise to not get too attached to him.

The Orioles have a lot of "good" problems. I don't think I've ever seen a team with this kind of depth.

Giancarlo Stanton hit his 400th HR today. I realize that Manfred could lock the players out for 3 straight years and Stanton would still spend half that time on the IL, but his HR/PA rate is impressive. The all-time top 10 (minimum 250 HR):

Mark McGwire, 13.14
Aaron Judge, 14.01
Babe Ruth, 14.88
Giancarlo Stanton, 15.93
Sammy Sosa, 16.25
Juan Gonzalez, 16.49
Barry Bonds, 16.54
Dave Kingman, 16.81
Jim Thome, 16.85
Ralph Kiner, 16.95

And the active top 13:

Aaron Judge, 14.01
Giancarlo Stanton, 15.93
Mike Trout, 17.72
Nelson Cruz, 18.09
Nolan Arenado, 19.64
J.D. Martinez, 20.46
Josh Donaldson, 20.97
Bryce Harper, 21.19
Manny Machado, 22.02
Paul Goldschmidt, 22.40
Mookie Betts, 22.56
Miguel Cabrera, 22.99
José Abreu, 23.56

Thirteen players because we probably won’t see Cruz, Donaldson, or Cabrera again after another month.

And for the discussion elsewhere about pitchers holding up (or not), I noticed that of the Top 100 all-time in HR/PA (minimum 250 HR), 67 of them played at least part of their career this century. Sure, if pitchers throw harder it helps batters who make contact, but it's a testament to how the game (and its players) has developed over time.

Here's a quiz for us ... top 10 all-time in HRs allowed

522
505
484
482
472
448
439
434
430
418

None is Jose Lima. :-)

522: Moyer (just happened to see that a few days ago)
482: Phil Niekro
472: Sutton
430: Blyleven

--------
414: Carlton

#68 - Glavine, Big Sexy, Pettitte, Sabathia?

Fergie Jenkins is in there somewhere.

Gaylord Perry, phil Niekro, Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson,

522 -- Moyer
505
484 -- Fergie
482 -- Niekro
472 -- Sutton
448
439 -- Colon (I assume that's Big Sexy)
434
430 -- Blyleven
418

Perry, Ryan (just 321), Unit, Pettitte (288), Sabathia, Glavine (356) all wrong

EDIT: One of the missing names surprised me because he doesn't have many innings by these standards.

Oh, I think Robin Roberts is the 505. Pretty sure he held the all time record until Moyer.

Spahn and Wynn?

Since you're cranking along, the most HR allowed in a season list (names repeat and there's a 5-way tie for 10th):

50
48
46 (3 guys)
44
43 (2 guys)
42
41 (5 guys)

There's not a LOT of overlap with the career list. Two of these seasons are pre-1970 which is kinda impressive.

522 -- Moyer
505 -- Roberts
484 -- Fergie
482 -- Niekro
472 -- Sutton
448
439 -- Colon (I assume that's Big Sexy)
434 -- Spahn
430 -- Blyleven
418

No on Wynn (338)

EDIT: Maybe we can start the "every other pitcher who gave up 450+ HRs is in the HoF, Moyer should be too!" campaign.

My last guess: Luis Tiant, jim Kaat, Frank Tanana, jim
Bunning.

Looking at the current list I guess I would have expected more guys from the steroid era, but since that isn't the case I'm sticking with guys pre-steroid

#75- Pretty sure Blyleven had (has?) the single season "record", so I'm gonna guess he's the 50.

Edit: And you mentioned Jose Lima in #68, so I'm gonna guess he's on this list instead. ;-)

Heading down the stretch the PHils looked theyve found at least one answer to their defensive issues. CF Johan Rojas extrapolates to 49 DRS in a 162 game season. Has anyone seen him play? How good is he?

From memory Eric Milton gave up about 80 HRs in one of his Reds seasons.

#75 - And you said there's not a LOT of overlap between the career and season list, but I'm gonna guess Moyer and Roberts anyway, cuz I don't think you can get to 500+ without a 40 dinger season (unless you're Eddie Murray;-)

For single season I'll try Mickey Lolich, Wilbur wood and Gaylord Perry - these guys were innings eaters so maybe some dinger records

Cutch goes down with Achilles sitting on 299 HRs. He's still young but Achilles injuries are bad, bad, bad.

Wainwright has about 3-4 starts to get to 200. Seems like climbing Mt Everest impossible for him but you never know. I'm guessing he lands at 199. The cards bats have shown some signs of life lately - it's possible he could win a 12-8 affair.

Tim Wakefield is the missing name from the career list, so I imagine he's in at least a couple of the single season lists too.

The career list is complete ... naturally you need to be a pretty good and durable pitcher to give up a lot of HRs

522 -- Moyer
505 -- Roberts
484 -- Fergie
482 -- Niekro
472 -- Sutton
448 -- Tanana
439 -- Colon (I assume that's Big Sexy)
434 -- Spahn
430 -- Blyleven
418 -- Wakefield (in just 3226 IP)

The season listj ... no on Wakefield, Lolich, Perry ,Wood.

50 -- Blyleven
48 -- Lima
46 (3 guys) -- Blyleven, Roberts
44 -- Moyer
43 (2 guys) -- Milton
42
41 (5 guys) -- Roberts

A few hints for the remaining 7:

One guy from the career top 10
One from the 1950s, led the league 3 times
One CYA winner (not in that season)
One who is arguably best known for a couple of trades he was in (but not Milt Pappas)
One active pitcher
One sillyball pitcher
One guy I got nothing for really but a 2010s pitcher who made it to 100 wins ... and did it in his final season

There has to be another Red from the GABP era. Homer Bailey or Bronson Arroyo?

50 -- Blyleven
48 -- Lima
46 (3 guys) -- Blyleven, Roberts, Arroyo
44 -- Moyer
43 (2 guys) -- Milton
42
41 (5 guys) -- Roberts

A few hints for the remaining 7:

One guy from the career top 10
One from the 1950s, led the league 3 times
One CYA winner (not in that season)
[s]One who is arguably best known for a couple of trades he was in (but not Milt Pappas)[/s]
One active pitcher
One sillyball pitcher
One guy I got nothing for really but a 2010s pitcher who made it to 100 wins ... and did it in his final season

EDIT: OK, I give up. I don't remember how to strikethrough. Anyway, Arroyo is the trade guy ... first when the Red Sox decided 6 quality starters was one too many and that Wily Mo Pena would be the next Babe Ruth or at least Dave Kingman ... second when the Braves ate his salary to get Touki Toussaint, maybe the first true example of that sort of trade.

10 pitches into his ML career, Cubs rookie Jordan Wicks had given up a HR, a wicked LD single, a walk and was down 2-0 to the cleanup hitter. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy came out of the dugout to have a chat.

Since then Wicks has 16 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 13 K, 1 R.

I humorously comped him to Ken Holtzman (for no good reason other than he's a famous Cub lefty) ... but today's game is classic Holtzman with 6 H, 1 K, 0 BB in 6 innings.

Cubs up 6-0 through 5.5

EDIT: I didn't realize Wicks was coming out for the 7th and now I have jinxed him. IF single off his butt and a double, Cubs 7-1.

Assuming this lead holds up -

This will be the first Cubs series sweep since they swept the Pirates in early June. The only other sweep was at Oakland.

This will also move them to a season-high +12 over .500. With the Brewers losing earlier today - maybe they're finally cooling off - the division lead shrinks back to just two games.

And it does...

Cubs now just a game behind the Phillies for the top WC and I was incorrect - the division lead is just 1.5 games (2 in the loss column).

I think everyone is just fodder for the Braves, but as well as they've played for nearly two months now... I really do think the Cubs are not to be overlooked. Not saying they'd be anything except underdogs to the Dodgers, but I wouldn't find it any kind of legendary upset to best LAD...

This will be the first Cubs series sweep since they swept the Pirates in early June. The only other sweep was at Oakland.

Technically they swept a 2-gamer from the White Sox in July, but that only kind of counts.

I think the lack of sweeps has made the recent run of excellent play feel less impressive than it's actually been. Entering the series with the Giants, the Cubs had won 30 of their last 45 (30 of 44 if you drop the opening loss to the Nats); that's almost impossible to do without a single sweep of 3 or longer, but thanks to taking 3 of 4 four times, plus the aforementioned pair from the White Sox, they managed it. Pounding a playoff contender 24-10 over 3 games is a nice psychological supplement to that.

I think the lack of sweeps has made the recent run of excellent play feel less impressive than it's actually been. Entering the series with the Giants, the Cubs had won 30 of their last 45 (30 of 44 if you drop the opening loss to the Nats); that's almost impossible to do without a single sweep of 3 or longer, but thanks to taking 3 of 4 four times, plus the aforementioned pair from the White Sox, they managed it. Pounding a playoff contender 24-10 over 3 games is a nice psychological supplement to that.

I was gonna say that puts a nail in the SFG postseason dreams, but I guess they're still just two games off the pace for the last WC... Still chasing the DBacks and the Marlins before they get to the Reds, but they'll need help as they've got just 2 games left with the DBacks among the teams they're chasing.

Yesterday's Cubs trivia tidbit (not quite relevant to today's game) is that the Cubs have scored 10+ 22 times this year, the most they've done that since 1935 and we still have a few weeks left. They mentioned it was more than the last 3 years combined.

Alexander Canario got his ML debut PHing in the 8th, struck out. He's 23, played A+, AA and AAA last year doing pretty well but has been hurt a chunk of this year. (I assume, hasn't played a lot.) A solid 276/342/524 at AAA in 150 PAs. A RHB OF who is probably better suited to a corner but is still getting some starts in CF. If the Cubs re-sign Bellinger then he might be trade bait.

they'll need help as they've got just 2 games left with the DBacks

Hopefully that will be the Cubs who have 7 against the DBacks coming up. An annoying aspect of mediocre teams vying for playoff spots is that it's tough to say anybody's been knocked out of it. Like you say, the Giants, DBacks, Marlins and Reds are all clustered together. That should be exciting but instead it's mostly a slog. The Marlins were playing badly and looked done a week or so ago, a game under 500. Now they've won 5 in a row and are a half-game out.

The Cubs almost look free and clear but a simple 3-4 game losing streak or 3-7 over the next 10 and they could be scrambling again. As to recent performance, I agree the lack of sweeps somewhat obscures the record but it's also all the 1-run games. Since the break they're 10-5 in 1-run games (if I counted right) which is 30% of their games. It was particularly that stretch against Sox, Royals, Tigers, Pirates -- we went 8-4 which is great but 6 1-run games and 4 2-run games. We finished it off with two easy ones over the Pirates but the first 10 games then were 6-4 with a +2 run differential. It's baseball, even bad teams will play you close most of the time, that was hardly a disaster but it was underwhelming.

But we've followed that with 7-3 against Milw, Cincy and SF and this last one was probably our best series of the year.

Jasson Dominguez, with his 1st HR at Yankee Stadium, a solo shot, breaks a 1-1 tie with the Tigers. That’s his 3rd HR in 5 games. Many more to follow?

Yanks win 4-3, their 5th win in a row, and 8 of 9, which puts them above .500 again. 3-hit night for Dominguez, too. A September surge isn’t necessarily predictive of next season success, but it’s better than continuing to play poorly.

The 1950s pitcher alluded to in #86 who gave up 40 plus homers in a season has to be Pedro Ramos.

Yesterday's Cubs trivia tidbit (not quite relevant to today's game) is that the Cubs have scored 10+ 22 times this year, the most they've done that since 1935 and we still have a few weeks left. They mentioned it was more than the last 3 years combined.

Does that sort of thing distort the whole Pythagorean predictor thing? I tried to run some numbers a few years ago but it seems like it just gets lost in the wash anyhow. Am guessing 1 run games is more likely to distort w/l performance.

Giancarlo Stanton hit his 400th HR

Stanton will be an interesting test case to see how much value voters are still willing to give for reaching old school milestones like 500 homers (as terrible as he's been overall the past 2 seasons, he still cranks dingers with regularity and looks more likely than not to get there). As has been pointed out many times, there's no such thing as "magic numbers" that will get anyone who reaches them elected automatically, but Stanton (44.6 WAR, 24.5 WAA) is much better than the Dave Kingman (17.3 WAR, -6.7 WAA), Adam Dunn (17.9 WAR, -8.3 WAA), or Paul Konerko (28.1 WAR, -5.6 WAA) types people usually bring up when they make this argument. And he was a legit star during his peak - including a 59 homer MVP season (and a runner up) - so he won't just be seen as a compiler who hung on to chase a milestone. If he could average even 1.5 WAR for the remainder of his contract, he'd be up in Fred McGriff territory value wise (52.6 WAR), which should be enough for a 500 guy with an MVP, right? 2 WAR per season would put him on par with David Ortiz (55.3). But of course, Giancarlo's recent production doesn't give much hope that even that meager level of value is possible, much less likely.

So whatcha think is the likeliest outcome for a hypothetical Stanton who reaches 500-520 homers with 45-50 WAR, an MVP plus a runner up, 5 all star appearances, 2 silver sluggers, 2 HR titles, 1 RBI title, and 3 slugging titles?

A) Quick election by the writers (a la Ortiz, who added 3 championships and tons of postseason heroics but who also had the DH and (mild) PED taint and no MVP)

B) Eventual election by the writers after a long-ish climb (a la Walker, Rolen, Bagwell, or Edgar, none of whom reached 500, but all of whom were much better overall players)

C) VC election (a la McGriff, who never came close via the writers but who also never finished higher than 4th in MVP voting and never had more than 37 homers or 107 rbi in a season)

D) Doesn't get elected at all