Flip

Some guy named Schneider is apparently off to the best start ever for a position player over his first 25 games. Turner has stolen 27 bags without being caught, which will be a record if he doesn't get caught in the last several games. Max Scherzer is getting old and the Braves are already leading 2-0 in the first. They seem to score a boatload of runs in the first 3 innings of every game.

Oh and because only Clapper and I are paying attention, the once great, but now the middling, very definition of average, NY and Boston continue their clash of the ages for 4th place in the East.

Mountcastle goes out with shoulder injury in baltimore

It's been a tough season for Kris Bryant (and for those of us waiting for him to get back on the field), but he homered again today to help the Rockies beat the Cubs, just as he did last night. That has to be a little satisfying.

I think Palacios has homered in three of his last at bats, or something like 3 out of his last five (I'm not counting)

Richie Palacios now shares a middle name with Bucky Dent. At least in Baltimore.

Second straight evening the Orioles offense is stymied by a junkballer.

The Braves starting lineup plays almost every night. Murphy has d'arnaud as an understudy but basically the rest of the starting 8 play everyday. Old school baseball

Rough MLB debut for the Nationals Jackson Rutledge against the Pirates. He gave up 5 runs in the first 3 innings, then walked a batter in the 4th, who attempted to steal 2nd but ended up on 3rd after the throw by catcher Drew Milas beaned Rutledge squarely in the back of the head before caroming into right field. Rutledge is 6’8”, but he had ducked more than enough, it was an error all the way. He stayed in the game, and promptly gave up a HR to Bryan Reynolds, eventually leaving with a 17.18 ERA. Milas later homered, so a good night for him, eh?

Nationals rallying a bit, now 7-5 in 6th.

Oh and because only Clapper and I are paying attention, the once great, but now the middling, very definition of average, NY and Boston continue their clash of the ages for 4th place in the East.

I don't care about the teams or which ends in 4th or 5th, but I would like to see NY continue their streak of non-losing seasons (now at 30). That's impressive, so I'm all for it, just like how I'm bummed the Cardinals streak of non-losing seasons will end this year at 15. The NL leading streak will now belong to the Dodgers, at 13 with this season.

Oh and because only Clapper and I are paying attention, the once great, but now the middling, very definition of average, NY and Boston continue their clash of the ages for 4th place in the East.

Our colleagues in Boston seemingly can’t even be bothered to provide a weather report. Rain delay now approaching 2 hours.

Edit: NOW POSTPONED. Another day/night doubleheader tomorrow.

Edit: NOW POSTPONED.

Which seems appropriate considering how the season has progressed for both teams. Though I'm not sure the Red Sox were actually trying this year. Their payroll sits 13th, below every other large market team, which is unacceptable for a club of their stature.

Os go down as Hicks pops up after a Gunnar two-out triple.

Two runs in two games.

Wow, what's happened to Toronto?

The cards who will lose around 90 games this year are 10-4 against the mighty AL East

The "ARod the snitch" angle seems a stretch. He didn't even meet with the Feds until Jan 14, after he had been suspended which was, what, a year or so after the scandal broke? The ESPN story says he gave them the names of Manny and Braun. Braun had been busted in Feb 2012 then beat the rap, the was suspended in July 2013. Manny had already been suspended twice and had last played in 2011.

ARod also gave them a third name, an All-Star. ESPN hasn't named him but said that he never tested positive and was never investigated by MLB.

So ARod "ratted out" two guys who had already ratted out themselves and one guy apparently nobody took a serious look at.

Also revealed, MLB spent $5 M on Bosch's legal fees, security and nice hotels.

The "ARod the snitch" angle seems a stretch.

don't shoot the messenger - that's ESPN's angle. reasonable people can differ.

headlines:
A-Rod went to war and spilled his guts to the feds
Yankees star A-Rod named other players in Biogenesis scandal

"Rodriguez set foot in the DEA office that day armed with prosecutor-granted "Queen for a Day" status, meaning that whatever he shared with authorities could not be used against him in later legal proceedings. Still, though, he had to tell the truth or he faced potential serious charges of lying to federal agents."

"Rodriguez also told federal agents that his cousin Yuri Sucart Sr. had been the source of PEDs dating back at least a decade..... Rodriguez told agents he wrote checks from his business account to Sucart, who initially acted as a middleman funneling cash to Bosch... He told authorities he eventually fired Sucart after a forensic accounting analysis of his bank accounts revealed his cousin "frivolously spent approximately $250,000 to $500,000" of his money without approval.

- Revealed that Sucart had demanded -- on Christmas Eve 2012 -- $5 million as payment for not exposing Rodriguez's dealings with Bosch to Major League Baseball."

"A-Rod also relayed sensitive personal information about Sucart that had the effect of bringing other people into the federal investigative record -- including identification of his married cousin's girlfriend."

Meanwhile, playoff "chases" are getting messy in both leagues.

O's +2 over Rays -- winner gets a bye, loser gets (probably) 2nd-best record in the league and a first round series.

Astros up by a game over Rangers who have gotten hot and won 5 in a row to move into 2nd in the WC. Basically 4 teams for 3 spots, all within 2.5 games.

The Brewers lead over the Cubs is probably big enough to start inking them in.

Losing two to the Rox during a "chase" should probably knock you out yet the Cubs remain closer to the Phils (1.5 back) than the Reds/DBacks to them (2 back). The Reds get super-hot and win, unbelievably, three in a row to move into a tie for the last playoff spot. Miami and SF only 1/2 back. 6 teams within 4 games for 3 spots. May the least mediocre win! It's not very likely but it's possible the NL will have three neg differential teams in the playoffs.

don't shoot the messenger - that's ESPN's angle.

Yes, I know. Sorry I didn't make it clear I wasn't aiming at you on that one.

EDIT: And yeah, he ratted out Sucart, but that wasn't the first time he'd done that I don't think. Sucart ended up getting 7 months, I don't know if his girlfriend's identity ever got publicly revealed.

no worries

RoyalsRetro put up a thread this afternoon for the ESPN Biogenesis reporting.

thanks !

Is there any chance Evan Longoria makes the HOF? He's at 58 WAR, but has unremarkable stats: 119 OPS+, current numbers 342 HR, 1016 R, 1157 RBI. I would say his career is looked at as mildly disappointing (his best seasons were his first three). I'm trying to think of a favorable comparison for him-he's closer to Ron Cey than Ron Santo, and Santo wasn't elected by the writers.

Longoria's 37 and a Free Agent this year, he'll probably get another year or two.

Darrell Evans is a good comp for Longoria; he even has the same 119 career OPS+. At Longoria's age, Evans moved to 1B/DH and pumped out another 150 homers over the last six years of his career. That would be a good idea for Longoria, too.

I don't see Longoria getting elected. Just 3 AS selections, 3 gold gloves, 1 silver slugger. Never finished higher than 6th in MVP voting. And none of his career numbers stand out, as you mentioned.

His 58.5 WAR ranks 7th amongst position players who debuted in the 2000's though, but that just illustrates how underwhelming that decade was for offensive talent.

Position players by debut decade, post integration (55 WAR/60 WAR/65 WAR/70 WAR):

1950's - 14/13/9/8
1960's - 18/12/9/7
1970's - 19/18/15/10
1980's - 18/14/12/7
1990's - 21/16/12/9
2000's - 8/6/3/1

Ugh. Gonna be some lean HOF ballots in the upcoming years. There's literally half as many position players from this era that warrant consideration as usual. Longoria could bump the number of 60 WAR players from 6 to 7, but the number of 55 and 70 WAR players from that decade looks like it's set.

Luckily, that appears to be a fluke, since the 2010's are already looking pretty good with lots of great young talent. Rounding up, they've already got 6 position players with 55 WAR:

85.1 - Mike Trout
64.3 - Mookie Betts
61.7 - Paul Goldschmidt
55.4 - Freddie Freeman
54.8 - Manny Machado
54.5 - Nolan Arenado

Who thought Longoria was a HOFr while he played ? This is always my first test and he doesn't pass it.

I'm trying to think of a favorable comparison for him-he's closer to Ron Cey than Ron Santo, and Santo wasn't elected by the writers.

Ken Boyer seems like a pretty good comp... 100 PA or so difference between the two.

Boyer 62.8 bWAR, 116 OPS+, 282 HR, 1104 R, 1141 RBI.

He dropped off the HoF ballot after 15 years, high-water mark was 25%.

Most games hitting a homer AND stealing a base in a single MLB regular season:

Rickey Henderson (1986), 13
Bobby Bonds (1973), 12
?? (1973), 11
Rickey Henderson (1990), 11
Barry Bonds (1992), 11
Christian Yelich (2019), 11
Ronald Acuña Jr. (2023), 11


Please fill in the blank

I certainly wouldn't vote for Longoria either, but with 58 WAR, he'll probably get some support.

329: my guess is always Willie Mays, but he was near the end in '73, he might have even retired the previous year?? I just read the Joe Morgan chapter of "The Baseball 100", so is it Morgan?

#329: I assume it's somebody unexpected ... I was gonna go Campy but his big HR year was 1970 (only twice). Or an oddity like Jeff Burroughs? (Surely he never stole enough)

EDIT: Grrrr, not Davey Johnson or Darrell Evans either.

I think I found it, not surprising. Somewhat incredibly, he had a game with 1 HR, 2 steals and 2 CS. (Twice stole second then got caught stealing third.)

EDIT: Along the way, I found the anti-Acuna. Rick Monday 1973 hit 26 HRs, stole 5 bases but also got caught 12 times.

I didn't know Gunnar had 88 runs scored.

And now 89. :)

but has unremarkable stats: 119 OPS+, current numbers 342 HR, 1016 R, 1157 RBI.

Now I get you wrote this in a certain context and he has no chance at the hall, but c'mon, "unremarkable"? Other then the 17 guys already elected at 3B and maybe just a few HOVG players above him, his stats put him in the top 25 3B of all time. I'd hardly says those are "unremarkable" stats.

He is/was a really, really good player for quite a long time, not HOF great, but pretty darn impressive.

Cesar cedeno has about 48 WAR through age 29 and finishes with 52. Who would have bet he would fall short after his age 29 season ? But it looks like injuries to his legs ruined him.

Dammit, Adley, you're usually a patient hitter. Why the first pitch hack there?

Only hitters in MLB history to have 400+ plate appearances in a season batting leadoff and a 1.000+ OPS doing it:

, 1987
, 1990
, 1996
, 2007
, 2018

Mookie and acuna are on target to hit this in 2023. This is a tough list to guess

is Cedeno the answer to 329? or Dusty Baker?

Cedeno

Injuries and maybe some unwise lifestyle choices. He was "involved" in the killing of his girlfriend at age 22 and twice charged with assaulting his girlfiend shortly after his career ended.

Statwise, 48 WAR through 29 is very good but he did get started at 19. Pretty much every borderline HoVG/HoF player has a 10-year stretch of 10 years, 50 WAR. Talentwise, he was as talented as any I've ever seen (granted 10-11 year old Walt possibly not the best judge of baseball talent) and at 21-22 was about as good a player as the game ever sees (8.0 and 7.4 WAR). He declines to a very good player immediately after his "legal troubles." Still, prime Cedeno was not a bad comp for Mookie or Acuna.

CC 21-29: 136 OPS+, 46 WAR, 30 WAA, 51 Rrun, 2 dWAR (Rrun is my new shorthand for Rbaser + Rdp ... whaddya think?)
MB 21-29: 134 OPS+, 56 WAR, 40 WAA, 44 Rrun, 13 dWAR

So the gap is all defense -- Cedeno was a slightly above-average CF, not a slouch. The other main difference is that in his early 20s Mookie was bowling 300 gaes while Cedeno was in a motel room when a gun was discharged killing his girlfiend. (At least I hope so.)

Anyway, sure, Cedeno was a pretty good bet for the HoF as of age 29, barring the character clause. He was coming off a 5-WAR full seqson. So we'd have expected him to make it to about 10,000 PAs or more, added at least 15 WAR or more. But no major milestones were within reach unless he lasted for about 12,000 PAs. Anyway, Cedeno with a smoother decline is still basically Reggie Smith who was one and done, hitting the ballot about 5 years earlier.

Yeah, compare Cedeno to Franco in the way MLB deals with things. Cedeno may have disappeared if he played in this day and age.

Well Cedeno is a Cardinal hero.

Cardinals acquired Cedeno from the Reds on Aug. 29, 1985, for minor-league outfielder Mark Jackson.

The deal rejuvenated the Cardinals and Cedeno.

Filling in for injured first baseman Jack Clark, Cedeno batted .434 (33-for-76) with six home runs in 28 games, sparking the Cardinals to the 1985 NL East Division title and onto a path to a pennant and a berth in the World Series.

After clinching the division crown in the next-to-last game of the 1985 season, Herzog told The Sporting News, “If we hadn’t got Cedeno, we would have been at least three games out of first, maybe more, going into this last week.”


1985 was cedenos only world series appearance.

(At least I hope so.)

Ack, tried to edit. By which of course I mean I hope Mookie doesn't have ugly stuff hidden away we learn about later.

In an AL in which unicorns do not exist, Corey Seager continues to RAKE and easily wins the AL MVP. When healthy, he is incredibly productive with the wood.

That big AL east match up has nearly concluded, who will possibly cement their place for 4th in the East. Oh, you're watching another AL east match up......

Boston turns to Mookie light, Ceddanne Rafaela, to man SS in this latest game.

Orioles helpless in the ninth against Fairbanks, lose 4-3 to Tampa in the series opener. Santander fitted for the Golden Sombrero.

Toronto has thrown up all over the bed this week.

Cedeño's career arc makes a little more sense if you add two or three years to his listed age.

His "comedown" actually happened in the second half of the 74 season. He had a fine first half and made the all-star team, then had a dreadful second half.

Anyway, Cedeno with a smoother decline is still basically Reggie Smith who was one and done, hitting the ballot about 5 years earlier.

I was with you up to here, but what argument are you making here?

On the all time WAR leader board, everyone 6 slots above and 17 slots (!) below RSmith is in the HoF except for Votto, Betts, and Utley. Im pretty sure two of those go in and Utley is of course underrated. Above Smith and not in: Willie Randolph and Tiant. Reggie Smith just seems to be horribly overlooked by BBWA voters. So Im not sure what you're argument is. That Cedeno, barring whatever happened in Dom Rep, would also be horribly overlooked?

Also Cedeno was somewhat more spectacular than REggie Smith. At his peak he was probably better and one would think that should play a role in HoF voting. So at the 65 WAR region there's 25 HoFers and Utley and RSmith.

But then you just got done saying: "Cedeno was a good bet for the HoF". So I dont know what your argument is. Also Smith seems to be at least VG to excellent as fielder through age 35 and clearly the primitive defensive metrics are likely under valuing him.

Maybe Im just venting because I never before realized how over looked RSmith is. And why is it his name? Did voters think of him as a poor man's version of Reggie! Or because his teams didnt win the WS? He was a key guy on 3 pennant winners.

Also Willie Davis was never on a HoF ballot for reasons that no one is quite sure of. So I don't know what sort of hijinks were going on with HoF voting in the 80s or whenever all that happened. Apparently no one liked Willie Davis except for Bouton I think.

Just ignore me. Carry on.

#337 -

1990 - Rickey! (His MVP season)
1996 - Brady Anderson (his 50 HR season)

#337 -

1987 - Kal Daniels? I remember 8 year old me being super excited about his career based on his 1987 season
2018 - Mookie's MVP season

In an AL in which unicorns do not exist, Corey Seager continues to RAKE and easily wins the AL MVP. When healthy, he is incredibly productive with the wood.

Seager is finally having the season I expected him to have ever since his great ROY winning 2015. On pace to set career highs in almost everything despite missing 40 games.

I've pointed it out before, but that shortstop debut class of 2015 sure had (still has?) the potential to be something special (Seager, Turner, Lindor, Correa).

re: Reggie Smith and Willie Davis -

They were underrated because WAR didn't exist back then, and none of their career stats stand out. Smith was a 7 time all-star and twice finished 4th in MVP voting so it's not like people didn't notice he was good, but 2020 hits, 314 HR, 1092 rbi, and a .287 batting was never going to get a corner outfielder elected. Be honest...no one here thought Reggie Smith - or Willie Davis - were HOFers when they retired or hit the ballot either, did you?

And Davis is even easier to understand. A .279 avg, 182 HR, and 1053 rbi? Never gonna happen. He did rack up a decent amount of hits (2561) and stolen bases (398), but still, just 2 all-star games and zero top 10 MVP finishes aren't going to get you noticed (still should have at least made the HOF ballot, though he would've been one and done and quite possibly shut out).

Be honest...no one here thought Reggie Smith - or Willie Davis - were HOFers when they retired or hit the ballot either, did you?

I mean its a question that I guess deserves an answer but it's not the bottom line either. It leads to ambiguous results.

I only saw Willie Davis at the tail end of his career when he was a just a decent player. An interesting old guy. He had tore up his knee or ankle at some pt and that changed his value. So no. Reggie Smith. I knew who he was but he sort of got lost in the shuffle over there in LA. I guess they had so many good players there I didnt think of him as a super star. But baseball is funny like that because there are any number of guys who werent really super stars but had long productive careers like Eddie Murray or Palmiero.

I never thought of Blyleven as a HoFer either. He was a putz in Pittsburgh he was always complaining. He didnt seem like he had overpowering stuff. Same with Sutton. WHen you thought of pitchers you thought of Seaver, Gibson, Carleton in the NL. I didnt even think of Jenkins as a superstar but I think his plaque is justified. Palmer probably yes but he was definitely featured on excellent Oriole teams. I didnt think of Ryan as an all time great. He was more a freak show every month or so he'd K 15 batters but I didnt think his record was over powering. Tanana was on the leaderboards just as much as Ryan in those days. It was always CAL: Tanana and Ryan. Catfish Hunter was sort of a superstar cause he was on the As. And I guess Vida Blue was just as much a star as him.

I thought of Dave Parker as a super star. Same with Jim Rice, but maybe because they hyped him almost every time on game of the week. I definitely thought more of Garvey than Ron Cey. We thought Cedeno and Foster were superstars.

So I dunno where all that leads you. Not everyone has the same career trajectory even though we mostly think that everyone is basically on the same trajectory and then when we forget we just fill in the blanks and figure Dave Parker had a nice slow decline phase. Hell Al Oliver had about twice the WAR of Dave Parker after age 30 but that's not something you would just know off the top of your head.

Bill James has a little more on Willie Davis in this article under "Horribly Underrated" which is weirdly (or horribly) named Chapter XI for some strange reason. Davis is no. 10:

https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_most_underrated_players_of_all_time/

basically Dodger stadium just really depressed offense. its like the anti Coors field. You have to give that some serious consideration.

James is so weird. In one of his books he was just insisting that no one had ever learned to hit after age 25 and yet Jose Cardenal and Jose Cruz both seemed to (I mean Cardenal certainly did, and not to mention Clemente) and they both turn up on his list of Horribly Underrated. Whatever.

1987
Rickey Henderson, 1990
Brady Anderson, 1996
2007
Mookie Betts, 2018

1987 - Boggs?

2007 - Jacoby Ellsbury?

No on both

Willie Davis left in 1976 and then re-appeared in 1979. Is that what screwed up his lack of appearance on the Hall ballot?

I don't know why they can't just add him to ballot now and let him have his 10 years. He'd certainly get more than 5% (I think ) with that resume

Davis played in Japan in 1977 and 1978.

It's one of these situations where people now recognize that Davis was underrated as a player, but nobody thinks he's really a Hall of Famer. He deserved to be on the ballot, but he's not going to get elected, so why bother putting him on there now?

#352 - I agree that "felt like a HOFer" can't be the sole criteria (although it's as good a tie-breaker as any for borderline players, which both Smith and Davis are). However, "cuz WAR says so" shouldn't be the lone determining factor either. If a players peak didn't feel very HOFey, and their career numbers don't look very HOFey, and their election would elicit a collective "WTF" from 90% of all baseball fans, and their actual value is only borderline anyway so it's not a major inconsistency or gross injustice to leave them out, then it's probably better to just not elect them. I suspect the vast majority of baseball fans would see it as watering down the Hall's standards. I love WAR and WAA as much as the next guy on this site, but a computer generated stat can't be the sole gatekeeper. The HOF isn't just for SABR nerds; it's for ALL fans, and there needs to be some compromises. Reggie Smith and Willie Davis (or Bobby Abreu, Rick Reuschel, Buddy Bell, Willie Randolph, etc) aren't hills I'm willing to die on. Blyleven, Santo, Raines, Walker, Whitaker, and Grich were/are.

That's a big part of why I stopped paying attention to the Hall of Merit. The narrative and milestone bonuses the actual HOF voters tend to give rather than relying solely on a dry mathematical formula actually make the election process MORE interesting rather than less, IMO (as long as they don't overdo it, of course).

I'm much more interested in great seasons than career-WAR for the HoF. This isn't Longoria (it's closer to Reggie Smith), but racking up 4-5 WAR seasons for 12-15 years doesn't make much of a case for me. I'd rather put in a Johan Santana type with less career value but who was one of the absolute best players in the game for a few years.

Jim Gilliam also never appeared on a HoF ballot which is equally weird. He doesnt have anywhere near the career value of the other guys but its way more than many of those that appear on the writers ballots.

That was a really good pt. Duke made above having to do with Davis coming back to PH in 1979 after being in Japan. THe current HoF rules say:

Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.

So there could have been some clerical error made. So in 1982 whoever was making the ballot said No, Davis played in 1979 he's not ready. And then in 1985 someone picked up a list of guys who retired in 1979 and Davis name wasnt on there or something.

Someone who writes for the LAD wrote to the HoF in 2020 but they were unable to give any real explanation and said that everyone connected with 1985 ballot was dead.

Man at 61 WAR I dont think its at all fair to just routinely dismiss him as "everybody knows he wont win" or "he's obviously not a HoF" there are very few guys with that many WAR that are not in.

I havent looked it up but if you drew a line at career WAR 61 would there be more guys above that line than are actually in the HoF?

That's a great point. The position players above Willie Davis who aren't in via the writers (and don't run afoul of the PED/gambling rules ) are:

Bill Dahlen. 75
Lou Whitaker 75
Grich 71
Lofton 68
Nettles 68
Evans 67
Bell. 67
Randolph 66
Smith 65
Boyer 63
Glasscock 62
Bando 62

This is a who's who of players who are on the vets committees rosters or have people who make cases for them. I'm sure there are people here who think everyone of these guys should be in the Hall.

Hard to believe that Davis wouldn't do reasonably well.

I think you missed one of the pre 1900 guys, Jim McCormick. There might be another oldie too.

But yeah if you just ignore Dahlen and the pre 1900s guys (I think Dahlen retired in 1910) and induct everyone 62 WAR and over its a list almost no one would have any strong objections to. Perhaps Buddy Bell because he was nearly invisible on the CWS. There would be a logjam at 3b which raises interesting questions about: why is there a logjam?

Many of these are infielders with at least VG to excellent defensive reputations. WHich also calls into question primitive def metrics. excluding oldies, there's 5 3b, 3 2b, 2 CF.

...who aren't in via the writers (and don't run afoul of the PED/gambling rules )

also forgetting Schilling but we get your pt.

without looking it up, I think Bell (on the verge) and Bando (gets votes) are the only ones on that list not in the HOM

I'd personally vote for about half the guys listed in #362, but I disagree that almost no one would have any strong objections to electing all of these players. I suspect the majority of less SABR inclined fans (which is most of them) view these guys as merely good rather than truly great players, and thus would think the HOF was lowering its standards to admit them. Basically the same way we think about most the Frisch era VC selections. So yeah, there's a legit argument that having a strict WAR in/out line like that would hurt the Hall's reputation more than it would help it.

The plaque room isn't just a math equation and doesn't exist just to validate the opinions of us SABR nerds. ;-)

I suspect the majority of less SABR inclined fans (which is most of them) view these guys as merely good rather than truly great players, and thus would think the HOF was lowering its standards to admit them

probably right, I was thinking more like the educated primates around here. Looking at the list again, and removing the Dahlen etc guys.


Lou Whitaker 75
Grich 71
Lofton 68 Usually I see pretty good support across the board for the top three

Nettles 68 I like Nettles a lot, but certainly not universal maybe 50-50

Evans 67 I think Evans is generally liked by a majority

Bell. 67 kind of goes unnoticed by most

Randolph 66 I dunno, probably under 50%

Smith 65 I just started to consider him the other day very likely under 50%

Boyer 63 I like him alot, not everyone agrees

Bando 62 seems to get some support

I guess the pt. is maybe that even if not all these guys were supported, there is very little in the way of an argument to say this guy really doesnt belong or this guy is dragging down the Hall.

As contrast to say Baines, Mazeroski, Lloyd Waner Fred Merkle, Jim Rice etc. Where there are very real, very objective reasons to say these guys dont belong.

Put it another way: what if because some future incredible esoteric arguments and/or sabermetric litigation or some other whacky scenario that primates were actually forced to draw a WAR line, above which everybody was in.

Like with computers and physics they got WAR accuracy down to 0.01 runs for every event that occurred since 1950. And after much arguing and such the consensus was that you just have to draw a line and everybody is in.

If you drew that line at 66 WAR. Would anybody be really offended? At that point, about the only objection might be B Bell and Luis Tiant but OK out of what 135 guys, there's some guy named Buddy Bell that no one remembers. ITs only 135 guys and the current Hall has 270 players (maybe a few of them are in for coaching).

Think about that, you can cut the player membership of the Hall in half making it super exclusive and the only objections perhaps being Buddy Bell and Luis Tiant. That's much less controversial than the current Hall.

What if you dropped it to 64? thats 150 members and issues with Chase Utley and Reggie Smith. It would still be super exclusive and have maybe four guys who are controversial and all of them better than Lloyd Waner, Merkle, etc.

At 62 WAR: 170 players with A Cone, K Boyer A JOnes and McGwire. Still much better

Boyer - he's basically Rolen, maybe a slightly less good model but I thought Rolen was an easy Hall of famer

On that list the only guy that I struggle with is Randolph. I look at his offense and see a guy who's just slightly above average and still generated 54 oWAR.

Nettles is really the same profile from a different position on the same teams. I guess I like sluggers more because he's in for me

Bando is the heart and soul of those As teams so he's a no-brainer for me.

Buddy Bell. I just remember everyone raving about his defense when I was a kid but also 2500 hits, and he gets extra credit for being a long time manager. He's in.

Evans was one of the next in line at the Vets. He's in.

The guys at the top should be in

I really like Reggie smith because of his super cool batting stance so he's in for me too

#368 - Even if it got to the point where WAR was SOOO precise that we're definitely sure a 60 WAR player was better than a 59 WAR player, I still don't think a mathematical cutoff like 60 WAR in, 59.5 WAR out would be a better system. Obviously no one wants the Hall electing the Harold Baines, Lloyd Waner, High Pockets Kelly types - other than I guess the cronyists (is that a real word?) who actually elected them - but I'd much prefer a HOF that found the space for Vlad Guerrero (59.5), Sammy Sosa (58.6), Willie Stargell (57.6), Mariano Rivera (56.3), Mike Piazza (59.5), Yogi Berra (59.5), and David Ortiz (55.3), rather than one who rejected them in favor of Willie Davis (60.7), Reggie Smith (64.6), Willie Randolph (65.9), Buddy Bell (66.3), Ken Boyer (62.8), and Sal Bando (61.5).

(Obviously you could argue that the HOF is big enough for both groups, but that's not what would happen if you have a bright white dividing line)

there's plenty of issues with a mathematical system, of course.

But if I told you that Reggie Smith had significantly more WAR than Vlad Sosa Stargell all those guys you named why would you still have a problem with Smith?

I mean if I told you this was a completely objective HoF based on career value and it was twice as exclusive as the current HoF why would your reaction be: "Smith Ugh" or ""Bell really?"

SHouldnt your reaction be: what am I missing about these guys? is there something happening on a day by day basis that my memory is not accounting for?

What did I mean? Who the hell knows? Admittedly confusing. But I did notice the potential contradiction and let it stand.

Cedeno was a "good bet" after his age 29 season. First, we have to define "good bet." Obviously very few players make the HoF (what, 2 debut per year) and almost nobody this side of Mike Trout is a lock after age 29 so what is a "good bet" for the HoF at that point? 1 out of 3? 1 out of 5?

He was a "good bet" because he was only 29 and coming off of a 5 WAR season. It is reasonable to think that guy will continue to be about that good for another 4 years or so and might well play full-time for at least another 7 years, maybe still be playing at 39. He already had 6000 PA, seemed a solid bet for 10,000 PA, etc. Guys like that often make the HoF. Dave Winfield made it on the first ballot -- of course he also made it to 3000 hits which Cedeno didn't have a great shot at. Lou Brock made it easily first ballot but of course he had a bunch of SB records ... and Cedeno wouldn't but he'd have had a lot of SBs. Andre Dawson made it after several years; Kirby Puckett made it in one year.

But as the list in #362, these guys often don't make the HoF either, especially if they don't have milestones, didn't reach 10,000 PAs, were good all-around guys without a lot of hardware. Or, ne one name, Reggie Smith. On the one hand, Cedeno had those monster seasons at 21-22 which do help a lot because it means you start out on the HoF radar. On the other hand, even if it's solid, it makes the rest of your career look like a disappointment. Even through age 29, Cedeno had almost no black ink, not a huge amount of gray ink, never better than 6th in MVP and his team never won so he had no postseason glory.

But it's not just Reggie Smith. Through age 29 (all OF, mostly of that era, a couple more modern guys):

CC 49 WAR, 6000 PA, 158 HR, 475 SB, no hardware or black ink of note
AD 44 WAR, 5000 PA, 182 HR, 222 SB, none
DW 35 WAR, 5000 PA, 167 HR, 144 SB, 1 RBI title
RS 40 WAR, 4900 PA, 172 HR, <99 SB, none
KP 29 WAR, 4100 PA, <99 HR, <99 SB, 1 batting, 3 hit, 2 3rd-place MVP
DP 34 WAR, 4200 PA, 139 HR, <99 SB, 2 batting, 1 hit, 2 SLG, 1 MVP, 2 3rd-place
DM 31 WAR, 5000 PA, 237 HR, 122 SB, 31 black ink, 2 MVPs
DE 33 WAR, 4400 PA, 150 HR, <99 SB, none (that's Dwight not Darrell)
TR 46 WAR, 5600 PA, <99 HR, 585 SB, 20 black ink
BW 33 WAR, 4900 PA, 198 HR, <99 SB, none (RoY)
WS 19 WAR, 3699 PA, 165 HR, <99 SB, none
WD 35 WAR, 5400 PA, 101 HR, 240 SB, none
BA 35 WAR, 4200 PA, 136 HR, 170 SB, none
VG 40 WAR, 4900 PA, 273 HR, 138 SB, 1 hit title, 1 MVP
BB 43 WAR, 5200 PA, 218 HR, 293 SB, a #3 and #4 MVP (that's Bobby not Barry)
JW 33 WAR, 4800 PA, 179 HR, 149 SB, none
CL 40 WAR, 4900 PA, 136 HR, <99 SB, none
JC 15 WAR, 2900 PA, <99 HR, 107 SB, none (Cruz added 39 WAR after age 29)

That's 18 guys, 7 are in. If we had to bet on one, wouldn't it be Cedeno -- those 2+ years extra he got at 19-20 over all of these guys is part of that. His main competition would have been Murphy, Parker, Dawson and Raines. But 7 out of 18 is an OK bet but not a great one. Anybody annoyed about how underrated Chet Lemon was?

Even knowing how their 30s went I'm not sure it's that easy to spot the HoFers. Dawson added a lot of bulk and an (undeserved?) MVP (and waited several years). Winfield added a LOT of bulk. Puckett was Puckett and Stargell was Stargell. Billy Williams essentially repeated his first half (and waited a couple of years). Vlad maintained well above 300 BA. And Raines got lucky that somebody adopted his cause before it was too late but he also added a good bit of bulk. Raines and Dawson strike me as the closest to the case Cedeno would have had if he had made it to 10,000 PA and mid-60s WAR. It is pretty clear that unless you're Puckett, you need to add substantial bulk which Cedeno was not able to do, making the final decision easy for the BBWAA.

Anyway, yes, my point is that they didn't elect Reggie Smith. Not only didn't elect him, dumped him quickly. Not only dumped him quickly, but even after being "forced" to reinstate guys like Santo and Allen to eligibility, the BBWAA still had no use for Smith. (And yes there are about a half-dozen 3B in this category but at least the VC finally got around to inducting Santo.) At least they kept Parker, Murphy around the full time, even Bobby Bonds held on a long time. A better-aging Cedeno probably sticks on the ballot for the whole time but I don't know why the Parker-Murphy fate wouldn't be the outcome.

#371 - In that case, I wouldn't have a problem with Smith or Bell getting elected as much as I'd have a problem with Vlad and Stargell and Ortiz NOT getting elected. That purely objective hypothetical HOF sounds a lot less interesting to me than the real one.

Any institution that can't recognize that Vlad Guerrero was basically the most awesomest awesome that ever awesomed isn't worth my time. :-D

Edit: Guerrero was one of my favorite players of all time. There's an outside chance I might not be entirely rational about him. ;-)

#371 - In that case, I wouldn't have a problem with Smith or Bell getting elected as much as I'd have a problem with Vlad and Stargell and Ortiz NOT getting elected.

Right I totally see that and I agree. So then we might say Take everyone over 62 WAR and just waive them home. Then anyone below that we have the standard (more or less) Narrative analysis. I guess contributing to pennant wins and/or milestones would be a starting pt.

So there's Brock w/ 45 WAR. He's got a great story line. No problem with him.
Stargell. Its kind of hard to say, he wasnt really factor in the 71 WS. But if we count winning the division he was a huge force on a great many PIT teams.
Mazeroski. No I dont see it.

Nola has failed to get the necessary last out in the 5th inning in his last 2 starts after being staked to leads of 5-0 and 4-0.

I hope his agent doesn't need this commission to pay any bills, because that pending free agent is costing himself 7 figures per start of late.

13 ER in his last 13.6 IP in 3 key postseason-driven starts.

................

deserved or not, Stargell got co-NL MVP (along with a future boyfriend of Elaine Benes) in 1979 as the "WE ARE FAMILY!" Pirates won a title. massive storyline bonus points - Willie was tied for 25th in NL WAR.

didn't count in the voting, but Willie made the writers look good with 5 HR, 13 RBI in 10 postseason games that year at age 39.

And the final answer are:

Paul Molitor, 1987
Rickey Henderson, 1990
Brady Anderson, 1996
Hanley Ramírez, 2007
Mookie Betts, 2018

deserved or not, Stargell got co-NL MVP (along with a future boyfriend of Elaine Benes) in 1979 as the "WE ARE FAMILY!" Pirates won a title. massive storyline bonus points - Willie was tied for 25th in NL WAR.

Man who did not pump their arms in that characteristic manner of his where you break your wrists? That felt so natural to do that at that plate.

They said Morgan did that chicken wing thing of his in order to peak at the catcher. That never felt comfortable doing that.

Sandaharu Oh where he lifts his front leg up. That actually works if you can time it. Didnt someone in MLB do it like that?

Reggie in the early days would bend straight over from the waist that was so weird. I used to do that spitting between your teeth thing.

Oh I guess Strawberry did the flamingo leg thing. And Ichiro of course

Man who did not pump their arms in that characteristic manner of his where you break your wrists? That felt so natural to do that at that plate.

ah, "the windmill" - and I was a lefty batter as well, so all the better.

also worked for the Bobby Tolan stance - basically raise your hands above your head as if you have a divining rod and you want to collect a bolt of lightning.

my "cheat" was doing the crazy (and right-handed) Juan Marichal Rockettes-quality leg raise before I'd throw a pitch.......

Well, the last week has all but settled the NL Central.

Milt May would do that Tolan thing too. I never understand how that was supposed to work.

Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
3h
Most home runs by a player in their first five big league seasons:

Ralph Kiner 215
Albert Pujols 201
PETE ALONSO 191, so far
Eddie Mathews 190

#376 - Molitor I should've guessed, but Hanley is sort of a sneaky answer. He had "only" a .948 OPS that season; 1.001 as a leadoff hitter in 112 games, and .786 batting 3rd in 39 games. So yeah, technically he fits the criteria, but it's also a bit misleading.

CC 49 WAR, 6000 PA,
AD 44 WAR, 5000 PA,
DW 35 WAR, 5000 PA,
RS 40 WAR, 4900 PA,
KP 29 WAR, 4100 PA,
DP 34 WAR, 4200 PA,
DM 31 WAR, 5000 PA,
DE 33 WAR, 4400 PA,
TR 46 WAR, 5600 PA,
BW 33 WAR, 4900 PA,
WS 19 WAR, 3699 PA,
WD 35 WAR, 5400 PA,
BA 35 WAR, 4200 PA,
VG 40 WAR, 4900 PA,
BB 43 WAR, 5200 PA,
JW 33 WAR, 4800 PA,
CL 40 WAR, 4900 PA,
JC 15 WAR, 2900 PA,

r/ihadastroke

What's the knock on Alonso? He seems like Mr Met. Why not extend him?

I looked at FG five year stats and he lands well behind Freeman, goldy and Olsen by FWAR but if you look at his stats they look very close to those guys - not sure why his fWAR is so far behind them

if you look at his stats they look very close to those guys

Freeman's OBP over the last 5 years is .406. Goldschmidt also has a significantly higher OBP than Alonso. Olson's not a much better batter than Pete but he's a better fielder and base runner.

I mean, Alonso is a .254 career hitter (.226 this season); Freeman is at .316 the past 5 years (.336 this season). That puts Pete at a SLG heavy 139 OPS+ and Freddie at a more SLG/OBP balanced 151 OPS+. Plus defense and baserunning are in Freeman's favor. That's not a small difference.

First five seasons doing some heavy lifting in that comparison. Here they are with ages attached:

Ralph Kiner, 23-27 215
Albert Pujols, 21-25 (or "21"-"25" if you prefer) 201
PETE ALONSO, 24-28 191, so far
Eddie Mathews, 20-24 190

I'd be curious to see the age 24-28 list. Alonso will still rank very highly of course, 200ish HRs over 5 years is hard. Kiner goes up to 234, Pujols up a few. Ruth 218, Foxx 227, Griffey 218 (missing half a season), ARod 233, Killebrew 219, Banks 207 ...

EDIT: Of course 2020 skews things against Alonso, he'd be in the 200s, probably 210s or higher without that.

I misread Alonso's baserunning stat which appears to be the big difference

First five seasons doing soe heavy lifting in that comparison. Here they are with ages attached:

Ralph Kiner, 23-27 215
Albert Pujols, 21-25 (or "21"-"25" if you prefer) 201
PETE ALONSO, 24-28 191, so far
Eddie Mathews, 20-24 190

I'd be curious to see the age 24-28 list. Alonso will still rank very highly of course, 200ish HRs over 5 years is hard. Kiner goes up to 234, Pujols up a few. Ruth 218, Foxx 227, Griffey 218 (missing half a season), ARod 233, Killebrew 219, Banks 207 ...

#385 ... there's an Alonso thread where some of these issues are discussed. bWAR vs fWAR issues aside:

For 2019-23
Alonso 18 WAR
Freeman 24 WAR (at a whopping 5 years older)
Goldschmidt 22 WAR (7 years older)

So even in his prime vs their "decline" phases, he's 1 full WAR per year behind them. That means something like $8-10 M less in AAV and that nobody should want to sign him through age 36 much less past that. If Alonso is willing to accept something like 7/$150 he can probably get it and that would be fine. Some reports are that he is looking for Judge money. If he really is a 4-WAR player that wants to be paid like a 6-WAR player, there's a problem.

He's hard to comp but they aren't promising. In that thread, I playfully go through the Davises. But sure, he's less one-dimensional (huh?) than Dunn but he's clearly not in the Pujols-Mathews-etc. class of player from the earlier list. He's kinda similar to Juan Gonzalez who had 13 WAR after age 28. He's been not nearly as good as Kiner (35 WAR for 24-28) who had just 10 WAR left. In the thread we stumble across Richie Zisk who isn't a terrible comp (18 WAR 24-28 but less power, more OBP) who had just 7 WAR left. The only major upside comp I could think of (and it's a biggie) is McGwire.(20 WAR for 24-28, actually healthy in those years).

Alonso is probably a decent bet to age better than those negative comps but I'm not sure there's any good reason to think he has more than 15-18 WAR left. If he's willing to sign that sort of contract then there's no problem. If he's worried that he'll turn into McGwire then give him an opt-out after 2-3 years.

Ohtani officially done for the season.

Edit: He'll still win the AL HR title since he's 9 homers ahead of 2nd place Luis Robert, but 50+ sure would've been cool. He'll lose his league lead in walks but is still in the running to lead the AL in triples, total bases, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. And I suspect he'll still be a near unanimous MVP winner.

And for us SABR nerds, his WAR lead is safe. ;-)

BTW, someone needs to investigate Troy Glaus. First Trout (2019) and now Ohtani both suffer season ending injuries right when they were on the verge of passing Glaus's single season franchise HR record (47 in 2000).

phenoms - they'll break your heart if you let them !

Elly De La Cruz at the All-Star break:
.325 41-126 4-16-28-16

since then:
.181 39-215 7-20-31-12
(last 31 days, .163 AVG and 1 HR)

the first stats, at 126 AB x 5 for about a full season, would equal..... .325-20-64-84-80

the later stats, at 215 AB x 2.5 for about a full season, would equal.. .181-18-50-88-30

the overall stats, at 341 AB x 1.5 for about a full season, would equal .235-17-54-89-42

pardon the inexact math. but he won't turn 22 until January - Elly will be just fine, in the long run.
:)

Hmmm ... actually the Dunn-Alonso comparison is not a bad one:

AD 24-28: 249/382/515, 206 HR, 133 OPS+, 10 WAR but 19 oWAR (i.e. killed by -86 Rfield, probably deserved), 3.7 oWAR/650
PA 24-28: 254/345/535, 190 HR, 139 OPS+, 18 WAR, 18 oWAR, 4.0 oWAR/650 (average defensive 1B)

Dunn had 10 oWAR at 1.7 oWAR/650 left. (Note the comparison is oWAR, conceding that Alonso will likely continue to have more defensive value than Dunn.) Dunn's BA collapsed but all the walks kept his OBP at 342 which is as good as Alonso's right now. Alonso will probably always have the better BA and ISO so the higher SLG, he can probably be expected to top Dunn's 114 OPS+ but how much is a 120-125 OPS+ 1B worth these days?

EDIT to be clear, the BA gap between Alonso and Dunn is much larger than it appears. Dunn's BA for 24-28 was 23 points below league average, Alonso's is 10 points over. Still, Dunn's OBP was 39 points over while Alsono's is just 28.

He's hard to comp but they aren't promising. In that thread, I playfully go through the Davises. But sure, he's less one-dimensional (huh?) than Dunn but he's clearly not in the Pujols-Mathews-etc. class of player from the earlier list. He's kinda similar to Juan Gonzalez who had 13 WAR after age 28. He's been not nearly as good as Kiner (35 WAR for 24-28) who had just 10 WAR left. In the thread we stumble across Richie Zisk who isn't a terrible comp (18 WAR 24-28 but less power, more OBP) who had just 7 WAR left. The only major upside comp I could think of (and it's a biggie) is McGwire.(20 WAR for 24-28, actually healthy in those years).

Look let me just now that I love RICHIE ZISK! YOu had me at Richie Zisk. But what about these other guys:

Gil Hodges, Olerud, Hrbek, Giambi, Teixeira...

We're talking about ALonso. The punchable doll face for the NYM?

He plays first base yes?

Phillies announcing crew marveling at Goldschmidt's durability.

games missed:
2023 - 5 so far
2022 - 11
2021 - 4
2020 - 2
2019 - 1
2018 - 3
2017 - 7
2016 - 4
2015 - 3
so 40 games missed in 9 seasons.

he also missed only 2 games in 2013, slacking off in between (missed 17 G in 2012 and 59 in 2014).

so he missed exactly as many games in 2014 (59) as he did in the other 11 seasons combined.

A moment where I wasn't sure if Ross was demonstrating his faith in Hendricks, his lack of faith in the bullpen or caught out by his lack of preparation in not having a reliever ready. It did not turn out particularly well.

Corbin Burnes tonight had a 5-1 lead and was 1 out away from his 7th "Quality Start" in his last 10 outings, but he settled for leaving with a 5-4 lead.

and how many Wins does he have out of those 10 games?
NONE, as the MIL 'pen tonight blew the lead with 2 outs in the 8th.

among those winless outings since late July:

2 ER 6 IP
2 ER 6 IP
2 ER 6 IP
0 ER 7 IP
1 ER in 7 IP
0 ER in 8 (hitless) IP

7 ER, 40 IP, 0 W

"did you hear about charlie manuel?"

(entire family gasps in horror)

"oh...he's still alive"

(entire family breathes again)

"but he did have a stroke today"

(noone talks to me for the next 2 hours)

Eric Stephen
@ericstephen
·
13m
Clayton Kershaw limited to 4 innings after 10 days off, but he got through without allowing a run

5 times he's started when the Dodgers had a chance to clinch the division (2009, 2014, 2015, 2022, tonight). 34 IP, 15 H, 1 R, 43 K, 7 BB

Dodgers won those first 4 starts

................

Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
·
12h
“I’m not gonna lie, it’s been hard,” Clayton Kershaw said. “It’s been hard mentally. You just kind of feel like a shell of yourself at times. But it’s worth it. It’s worth it in the end. I still enjoy it. I still enjoy the grind of it.”