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Friday, September 01, 2023

Omnichatter for September 2023

One month to go. Atlanta and LA are the only teams that have (essentially) wrapped up their divisions, each with a magic number of 16.

The AL Wild Cards right now would be Tampa Bay, Houston, and Texas. Toronto (2.5 games back) and Boston (6.5) are the only conceivable threats.

In the NL, the Phillies, Cubs, and Giants lead a trio of teams for the Wild Card—DBacks (1 game back), Reds (1.5), and Marlins (3). Count the Brewers in that mix since they lead the Central by 3 games and would have to fall pretty far to lose the division and miss the playoffs

NaOH Posted: September 01, 2023 at 02:14 PM | 711 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   401. The Duke Posted: September 17, 2023 at 12:13 AM (#6141577)
Cubs and dbacks go to 13 innings. Lots of extra inning runs scoring but no one can strike the decisive blow
   402. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 17, 2023 at 12:41 AM (#6141581)
Cubs lose another backbreaker, blowing the save THREE times in extras and eventually having the corpse of Evan Longoria score the winning run.

Crazy that the division was in play as recently as a week ago and now they are hanging on to that second wild card spot by the skin of their lousy base-running teeth.
   403. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 17, 2023 at 12:58 AM (#6141582)
Also, I don't know what on earth Dansby Swanson was doing shuffling up to the would-be final out ball that dropped and tied the game. Just a total mess.
   404. Tony S Posted: September 17, 2023 at 08:40 AM (#6141590)
The Astros phoned in another one against a last-place team. Now 1-4 this week against two 100-loss clubs.

This is not a championship-quality team. I expect them to get flicked away quickly in the playoffs (should they make it).

Fortunately for them, the Mariners and Rangers have been quite sporting about not taking advantage.
   405. The Duke Posted: September 17, 2023 at 09:43 AM (#6141593)
The big Mo seems to be with the brewers and Braves right now. Hopefully they didn't peak too early
   406. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: September 17, 2023 at 10:34 AM (#6141595)
Brewers since August 1st:

27-14 record

220 runs scored 5.4 runs/game
148 runs allowed 3.6 runs/game

In 15 games so far this September the Crew is allowing only 3.1 runs per game

The NL league average in runs allowed per game is 4.66

//courtesy a poster on brewcrewball though I could have done same via BBREF. But he/she did the work so wanted to acknowledge
   407. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 17, 2023 at 11:48 AM (#6141596)
I said it last week, but this has had the feel of September 2018 where the Brewers were just basically lights out.
   408. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: September 17, 2023 at 12:26 PM (#6141598)
Brewers mgt basically swapped out guys who couldn’t hit for guys who can. Except for Turang. First base, third base and 2/3 of outfield and DH

Like Taylor for season doesn’t look good but since 8/1 he’s slugged over .500. Santana has hit some dingers. Frelick not awesome but at least competent. Monasterio better than Anderson which was a low bar. Canha has been legit awesome

Made all the difference especially since D hasn’t suffered. Meanwhile bullpen incredible and top 3 starters taking turns being NL pitcher of the month
   409. Howie Menckel Posted: September 17, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6141600)
Burnes has 6 QS in his last 10 tries - and no W
   410. Walt Davis Posted: September 17, 2023 at 03:59 PM (#6141611)
Cubs lose another backbreaker, blowing the save THREE times in extras

While it certainly wasn't inspiring, this is a bit harsh (but technically true). The Manfred Man has radically changed run-scoring expectations in extras. There have been 518 R, 335 UER in 464 IP (a few of these "legit" UER) or 1 UER every 6.23 BF or 6.5 UER per 27 outs. (Or 10 runs per 27 outs) In the 9th inning, there have been just 98 UER or 1 UER every 149.48 BF or 0.26 UER per 27 outs.

It's the most radical run-scoring environment we've ever seen and we shouldn't expect a 1-run lead to be protected. So the terminology we use of the "blown" save is maybe OK in a typical save situation but seems unfair in a 10-run/9 environent. And of course we expecially can't expect a 1-run lead to be protected in this environment when it's Drew Smyly in his 3rd inning of relief. It's really on the Cubs' offense which did at least do its job in getting the MM across the plate but couldn't score a real run in 4 extra innings despite 5 H, 3 BB and only 1 K with 8 LOB.

We almost never see a save opportunity these days which is a reliever coming on in the 9th with no outs and a man on 2nd but it would be interesting to compare those situations to thexe extra inning situations. There may be something about extras ... or about usually having used all of your best relievers already ... that makes it even worse in terms of R/9. Even just how often -2- with 0 outs results in that runner scoring.
   411. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 17, 2023 at 04:07 PM (#6141613)
That's fair. They left a ton of guys on base last night and ran into a few outs, too. From what little I've seen of them this season, this team runs the bases like the Moises Alou 04 team.

They also had a lot bad breaks, like the overturned Bellinger call, the non-HBP of Bellinger, and the bizarre Swanson play in the 13th that tied the game up.
   412. shoelesjoe Posted: September 17, 2023 at 07:51 PM (#6141623)
With today's Rangers' loss both the Orioles and Rays clinch a playoff spot at the same time while playing each other. Rays led that game 1-0, 3-1, and 4-3, but the Orioles scored a run in the 8th inning (with 2 outs and 2 strikes), 9th (with 2 outs and 2 strikes), 10th (with 2 outs and 2 strikes), and the 11th inning to finally take the game 5-4. The Orioles now own both the tie breaker with Tampa and a two game lead over them in the AL East. They're currently on their way to Houston for three against the Astros. That'll be seven games in a row for Baltimore where they can prove (or not) that they belong with the big dogs in the AL.

   413. The Duke Posted: September 17, 2023 at 08:53 PM (#6141625)
A lot of high payroll teams not even making the playoffs this year. Mets, Yanks, Padres,
angels and one of Houston, Toronto and Texas. Others in the next group: SF, Red Sox, stl. It's one thing not to win the WS ,but that's a a lot of high payrolls to miss the whole post season.

So that leaves the dodgers, Braves, rangers, Astros, blue jays, Phillies, cubs to pull on out for the high salary crowd
   414. Walt Davis Posted: September 17, 2023 at 10:02 PM (#6141627)
#411 ... actually they tend to run the bases quite well. If I had to ding thme on baserunning, I would go with the overly aggressive Javyy Baez analogy not the "whaddya mean I shouldn't be 40 feet off 1B on a popup" Moises Alou analogy. :-) But it does seemm like somebody in Cubs analytics land has decided that doulbe steals are a great idea and that runners on third should always be going on contact.

FWIW, bWAR puts the Cubs at -1 on baserunning but +7 on DP avoidance -- which I can kinda believe, they sure seem like maybe the fastest Cubs team I've even seen even if maybe not the wisest. bWAR rates Nico (+5) by far the best on the team with Swanson and Tauchmann (both +2) doing fine and only Seiya doing poorly (-3) ... I'm not sure where this is captured in WAR but there have been at least a couple of times where he's ade a bad decision on trying to stretch a single. But he's also 6 for 13 in steals which is very ungood in this day and age. Wow, I didn't realize Nico had passed 40 SBs and they have a god's honest PR specialist in Mastrobuoni (10 for 11 in steals).
   415. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 17, 2023 at 10:12 PM (#6141628)
Thanks for the clarification, Walt. It's probably just this heinous 10 game stretch that's making think they're way worse on the basepaths than they've been overall.

   416. Walt Davis Posted: September 18, 2023 at 01:03 AM (#6141632)
Yes, my fault, I jinxed them. When they were going good I noted they were still just a 3-game losing streak or a 3-7 stretch from being back to the pack. Since then they've had 3- and 5-game losing streaks and have gone 2-8. So at the moment tied for the last spot with Miami, a half-game up on the Reds and 2 on SF but also only a half-game behind the DBacks.

We'd better rack up some wins vs Pitt and the Rox cuz then it's Atl and Milw. Of course those two will be in full cruise mode, resting guys for the playoffs, so maybe they'll take pity on us. (Atl lost 16-2 today to the Fish.)
   417. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:04 AM (#6141635)
   418. Howie Menckel Posted: September 18, 2023 at 08:16 PM (#6141686)
I just learned from the SNY broadcast that the Mets, at 90.1% success rate, are on track to be the most successful base-stealing team per that category in MLB history.

109 SB
12 CS

Lindor 26/2
SMarte 24/4-IL
(Pham 11/1)
McNeil 9/0)
(Canha 7/0)
Locastro 6/0
Ortega 6/1
Mauricio 5/0

the rest are 15/4. notables:
Alonso 4/1
Nimmo 3/3 (boo !)

they are only 10th in NL in SB, and of course have the fewest CS.

league average is 110/26

   419. Howie Menckel Posted: September 18, 2023 at 08:36 PM (#6141688)
Update: Mets are now 111/12
Lindor 27/2
Mauricio 6/0

9 of the 12 CS are by OFs
   420. Tony S Posted: September 18, 2023 at 08:37 PM (#6141689)
Orioles-Astros is my Natalie Imbruglia game.

The Astros need this game more. But the Orioles have had the kind of season that creates new baseball fans.

So I'll just sit back and enjoy whatever happens.
   421. Walt Davis Posted: September 18, 2023 at 09:14 PM (#6141696)
Natalie Imbruglia

"Torn" came out over 25 years ago.

Now the rest of you chumps feel as old as I do.
   422. Tony S Posted: September 18, 2023 at 09:27 PM (#6141698)
They have two separate NFL games on Mondays now? I had no idea.
   423. Howie Menckel Posted: September 18, 2023 at 09:31 PM (#6141699)
5 times, due to the SAG strike in Hollywood.

usually only in Week 1, but this year it was on 9/11 - so the only MNF game played was in the Meadowlands.

ABC gets live TV shows that take on reruns out there from rivals.

they're also rolling out another "Dancing With The Stars - Half Of Whom I've Never Heard Of" series - as well as a Bachelor version with a 72-year-old dude (who, to be fair, looks like he's maybe 55).

funniest comment I heard on the latter was that, to make it a true "reality show," include a 22-year-old blonde among the two dozen contestants in Week 1.

he runs off with her, and there is no Week 2 episode.

:)
   424. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2023 at 09:57 PM (#6141703)
Wainwright gets his 200th career win, 7 ip, 4 hits, 2 walks, 3 k's, Wilson Cabrera hits a solo homerun in the 4th for the lone run of the game.
   425. Howie Menckel Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:01 PM (#6141704)
MLB Network was all over the Wainwright drama.

I know that nobody remembers pitchers like Early Wynn staggering to their milestone wins, but I was afraid the Cardinals would "piggyback" Wainwright to get it.

just the other day, Aaron Nola had a lead, got 2 outs in the 5th, allowed two singles, and he's out.
Strahm comes in to face one batter and gets him.

Phillies never blow the lead, so Strahm gets one of the cheapest wins you'll ever see.

but here, Wainwright "blood and guts," MLB Network called it, through 7 scoreless innings in a 1-0 win.

if nobody else remembers it, I will.

Gibson HOF
Haines HOF
Wainwright

those are your 3 STL franchise 200-game winners
   426. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:02 PM (#6141705)
Good for him. I’m glad he got there with a good outing rather than having to cheapen it by vulturing a win as a reliever.
   427. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:04 PM (#6141706)
Is it just my TV, or do the Astros’ City Connect u informs make them all look kind of chunky? They look like old man pajamas.
   428. The Duke Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:06 PM (#6141707)
Wainos best game if the season. Nice way to go out. Hopefully, he hangs them up tomorrow. Can't beat that
   429. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:36 PM (#6141711)
Orioles-Astros is my Natalie Imbruglia game.


You referenced an Aussie singer who's big moment came when singing in the opening ceremony of the Olympics here in 2000. That is a seriously obscure reference. Walt got it as I believe he was living here and is now slumming it in the land of the long white cloud.

Wainwright gets his 200th career win, 7 ip, 4 hits, 2 walks, 3 k's


It's great that he threw a pretty darn good game to get it, none of this 5 IP, 5 ER but the Cardinals got 7, so he "earned" the win type of thing.
   430. Howie Menckel Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:47 PM (#6141714)
MLB Network guys were speculating that this was the last time we'd ever see Wainwright on the mound, even if he didn't get the win.

Plesac said his body language early was terrible, and his fastball was under 85 mph. he got it up to 87 or so, but they couldn't believe how he concocted this gem.

his next turn would be in SD over the weekend, then it could be at home the final weekend vs. the Reds.

if Reds at that point are already in - or out - of the playoffs, it would be easier to just have Wainwright take the hill, then tell him that he'll know "when" it's time.

and make it mid-inning to maximize the fanfare.

a lot of the most legendary golfers who are former British Open champions choose St. Andrew's in Scotland - the birthplace of golf - as their swan song. there's a famous bridge - forget it if it's the 17th hole or the 18th - and they pause there and take in all the history and all they have accomplished. it's always an emotional scene.

Wainwright isn't Tom Seaver or anything, but dude, stop before you reach the dugout and do a 360-degree turn. no delay of game penalty coming.

(Seaver is an interesting comparison. he finished up his amazin' career with the Boston Red Sox in - wait for it, wait for it - 1986. He did not pitch in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and was left off the postseason roster. Yet Seaver was in the Shea Stadium dugout - in uniform, no less - for both the Buckner Game 6 and the Mets rally in Game 7 to win the WS, just as he was when the Mets won their only other WS in 1969 behind a Shea Stadium CG from teammate Jerry Koosman.)
   431. NaOH Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:58 PM (#6141716)
I know that nobody remembers pitchers like Early Wynn staggering to their milestone wins...

if nobody else remembers it, I will.

Nobody remembers what they said just a few weeks ago:
Howie Menckel Posted: August 24, 2023 at 08:14 PM (#6139490)
There's a simple answer here for Wainwright: if he had 188 wins, or 208, would be still be pitching?

I think the answer is a clear "no."

That should inform him of what to do. 200 is just a number.
   432. The Duke Posted: September 18, 2023 at 10:59 PM (#6141717)
This is the second cardinals pitcher to win his 200th game in three years
   433. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 18, 2023 at 11:05 PM (#6141718)
I just learned from the SNY broadcast that the Mets, at 90.1% success rate, are on track to be the most successful base-stealing team per that category in MLB history.
Only because Showalter won’t give Daniel Vogelbach the green light.
   434. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2023 at 11:13 PM (#6141719)
You referenced an Aussie singer who's big moment came when singing in the opening ceremony of the Olympics here in 2000. That is a seriously obscure reference. Walt got it as I believe he was living here and is now slumming it in the land of the long white cloud.
It’s not that obscure. She had a massive hit here with the song “Torn,” which is what he was referencing.
   435. Tony S Posted: September 18, 2023 at 11:13 PM (#6141720)
Cedric Mullins smacks a three-run homer in the 9th to give the Orioles an 8-7 lead over the Astros.

Off, of course, Ryan Pressly.


Ryan O'Hearn has a five-hit night.

   436. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2023 at 11:16 PM (#6141721)
Well, crap. I had paused the game while I cleaned up the kitchen after dinner. Thanks for that!
   437. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 18, 2023 at 11:16 PM (#6141722)
O's and Stros playing the game of the year right now...
   438. Booey Posted: September 18, 2023 at 11:25 PM (#6141723)
Orioles-Astros is my Natalie Imbruglia game.


You were lying naked on the floor while watching it...?
   439. Tony S Posted: September 18, 2023 at 11:26 PM (#6141724)
I knew that quote was coming... :)

The Astros and Orioles are my two teams. Life was a lot easier when they were in opposite leagues.
   440. salvomania Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:40 AM (#6141745)
Last night Willson Contreras became the fourth Cardinals catcher to hit 20 homers in a season (not necessarily all as C).

26 Ted Simmons, 1979 (all as C)
22 Ted Simmons, 1978 (18 as C)
21 Ted Simmons, 1977 (all as C)
21 Ted Simmons, 1980 (19 as C)
20 Ted Simmons, 1974 (18 as C)

22 Yadier Molina, 2012 (all as C)
20 Yadier Molina, 2018 (all as C)

21 Joe Torre, 1970 (11 as C, 10 as 3B)

20 Willson Contreras, 2023 (19 as C)

Interesting that Contreras has just 1 HR as DH despite having 127 pa there.

As C he is hitting .282/.362/.519 in 360 pa, as DH he is .217/.347/.330.
   441. salvomania Posted: September 19, 2023 at 11:29 AM (#6141751)
On June 13, after 68 games, Contreras was hitting .198/.292/.347---and with the weird couple of weeks of him "not being the primary catcher anymore" earlier in the season, this signing was turning out to be somewhat of a disaster for both Contreras and the team.

Since then, though, Contreras has been, quite literally, one of the best hitters in MLB:

Since June 13 (61 games, 81 team games): .338/.429/.603, for a 1.032 OPS, in 239 PA.

In spite of his brutal 2+ first months, Contreras has produced a season right in line with his best years with the Cubs.
   442. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 19, 2023 at 08:51 PM (#6141818)
Acuna with homer #38 and SB #67. He has 12 games to get to 40 and 70.
   443. Tony S Posted: September 19, 2023 at 09:00 PM (#6141820)
Ryan O'Hearn homered in the first and singled in the third. That's seven straight hits for him. O's lead Astros 5-2.
   444. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 19, 2023 at 09:24 PM (#6141821)
Eh, Acuna with #39. Looks like the 40 homers will be achieved, now just needs a chance to still 3 bags. 40/70 is just a mind blowing feat. Along with now 100 ribbies.
   445. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:34 PM (#6141830)
You referenced an Aussie singer who's big moment came when singing in the opening ceremony of the Olympics here in 2000. That is a seriously obscure reference. Walt got it as I believe he was living here and is now slumming it in the land of the long white cloud.

As mentioned, "Torn" was a major international hit in 1992 and in very heavy rotation on MTV, no doubt partly thanks to Ms Imbruglia being rather fetching (even to an old fart like me) ... and not a bad video as these things go. And still fetching at 48. Anyway, "Torn" is one of the all-time great 1-hit wonders and made many of the 1992 guilty pleasure lists I saw. It would be the Aussie national anthem if not for the Divinyls. :-)

It wasn't until I got to Oz 20 years later that I learned she was Aussie and was on ... was it Neighbors or the beach soap?
   446. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:45 PM (#6141831)
Alexander Canario with his first ML hit. A little help from the Pitt OF. 6-1 Cubs.
   447. The Duke Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:48 PM (#6141832)
Brewers with four straight doubles in four batters. I wonder what the record is for doubles, triples and homers.
   448. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:49 PM (#6141834)
That was preceded by a play that I'm not sure I've ever seen -- JD and Boog weren't sure they'd ever seen it either. Canario in the on-deck circle unintentionally got in the way of Ke'Bryan Hayes going for a foul ball. He should have gotten out of the way long before he did, then was trying to get out of the C's way and backed into Hayes. The umps didn't call anything until the Pirates complained then all 4 got together to figure out the rule and the batter Wisdom was called out. I assume they got the ruling correct. But surely that's happened before.
   449. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:50 PM (#6141835)
Wow, that was a ridiculous play by Bellinger at 1B. Hernadez-esque that one. (EDIT: Lined up well off first, he went way, way towards 2B to get a GB ... I'm not sure I've ever seen a guy that far off 1B, at least not without a force play in effect ... then, still moving away from 1B, turned and hit the pitcher in stride covering first.)
   450. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:59 PM (#6141836)
The consecutive HR record is 4 which has been done by 10 teams. Apparently 8 times a team has hit 5 in one inning.
   451. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2023 at 11:20 PM (#6141838)
And now the first career HR for Canario ... and first career grand slam. Strong like bull.

EDIT: 5th time the Cubs have scored 10+ against the Pirates this year. At least their 23rd on the season.

EDIT2: Cody Bellinger strong like bull. 13-1
   452. The Duke Posted: September 20, 2023 at 12:01 AM (#6141842)
Snell at 104 pitches no hitter in the 9th in a 0-0 game

And it's over just like that. Still a 0-0 game and now approaching silly ball extra inning rules
   453. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 20, 2023 at 12:20 AM (#6141843)
Snell came out after seven innings. The Rockies got two hits in the ninth off a reliever.
   454. Booey Posted: September 20, 2023 at 01:52 AM (#6141846)
Acuna with homer #38 and SB #67. He has 12 games to get to 40 and 70.


So crazy. 30/60 had never even happened before. The previous high in stolen bases for a 30 homer season was 52 by Bonds in 1990. The high for a 40 homer season is 46 by ARod in 1998. And the previous high in homers for a 60 (or 70) stolen base season was 28 by Rickey (twice).

That Acuna guy is pretty good.
   455. Booey Posted: September 20, 2023 at 01:55 AM (#6141847)
As mentioned, "Torn" was a major international hit in 1992 and in very heavy rotation on MTV, no doubt partly thanks to Ms Imbruglia being rather fetching (even to an old fart like me) ... and not a bad video as these things go. And still fetching at 48. Anyway, "Torn" is one of the all-time great 1-hit wonders and made many of the 1992 guilty pleasure lists I saw. It would be the Aussie national anthem if not for the Divinyls. :-)


I thought it came out around 1997-1998-ish?

Edit: Yeah, Google says 1997.
   456. Booey Posted: September 20, 2023 at 02:33 PM (#6141878)
Whoa, Gunnar Henderson has 6.2 WAR?! I knew he was a lock for AL ROY, but I had no idea he was already one of the best players in the league. I feel like with the hot start of Corbin Carroll and the excitement of early season Elly De La Cruz, Henderson has somewhat quietly put together the best rookie season of the year without much fanfare. Or maybe I just missed it?

So does he project as mostly a shortstop or a 3B going forward? He's split time between the 2 positions almost equally this season.
   457. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 20, 2023 at 03:03 PM (#6141882)
The Nationals have scored in every inning, and now lead the White Sox 12-1 after 5. I’m among less than 5,000 present in very pleasant DC weather, although announced crowd will be larger. Might see some position players pitching.
   458. Cris E Posted: September 20, 2023 at 03:38 PM (#6141885)
Hunter Greene with 14 strikeouts through seven but has to pass the ball to the Reds' bullpen. Alas, they cannot hold and the Twins come back to pull out the 5-3 win. Willie Castro homered the last two days and has moved from CF to 3B now that Taylor is back and Lewis is out. That was the last hard series for the year as they return home to lock up the division title.
   459. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2023 at 04:29 PM (#6141891)
#455 ... yes, bad math, I meant 1997 not 1992. See my earlier "more than 25 years ago" reference.

#456 ... he got off to a slow start with a 659 OPS through April and still just over 700 through May. The O's were going great but not as great as the Rays and Gunnar hadn't been a big part of the O's success to that point so he wasn't getting noticed, if anything a bit of a disappointment. Since the end of May, 285/327/554 with 22 HRs. Also DRS rates him at +14 but statcast at +2.

Looking at his gamelog, now I remember. For some reason, early he was walking like crazy but doing almost nothing else. Through May 12 he had 25 BB in 126 PA and a bizarro line of 170/341/310. I assume somebody told him to start swinging the f'ing bat. Maybe he was hurt? Since then he's had just 26 BB in 453 PA which is too far the other way. But, not even close, 285/330/550 beats the snot out of 170/340/310.
   460. Tony S Posted: September 20, 2023 at 04:36 PM (#6141893)
Whoa, Gunnar Henderson has 6.2 WAR?! I knew he was a lock for AL ROY, but I had no idea he was already one of the best players in the league. I feel like with the hot start of Corbin Carroll and the excitement of early season Elly De La Cruz, Henderson has somewhat quietly put together the best rookie season of the year without much fanfare. Or maybe I just missed it?

So does he project as mostly a shortstop or a 3B going forward? He's split time between the 2 positions almost equally this season.


Gunnar Henderson slipped under the radar outside of Maryland, probably because he got off to a slow start at the plate and didn't register in the early RoY narratives. His morphing from Roy Howell to George Brett in the span of four months is probably the biggest story of the Orioles' season. He's the one Oriole with long-term superstar potential (He's 22; Adley Rutschman is three years older).

He's got a howitzer arm which isn't quite Cal Ripken-accurate yet, but (like his hitting) has improved every month. Whether he settles in at short or third probably depends on Jackson Holliday.

It's a nice problem to have.

   461. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2023 at 05:06 PM (#6141897)
Adam Frazier with a phenomenal play to keep the O's-Astros tied at 1. Not sure I've seen a play like it before. Abeeu (I know) hits a bullet back through the box. I'm not sure if it hit the pitcher or the mound but, still moving fast, it takes a wicked hop to way above Frazier's head. But he reacts immediately and skies to grab it. From that point with Abreu's speed, it's easy but I don't know if I've ever seen a ball quite take a hop like that much less a fielder adjust in time to get it.
   462. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2023 at 05:14 PM (#6141901)
And Astros 2-1 with a walkoff single by Dubon. Something of a classic early 70s style game -- well, one with 23 Ks so I guess Seaver vs Fergie. C Yainer Diaz doubled down the RF line, moved to 3rd on a GB and Dubon with a soft line single to RF.
   463. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2023 at 05:41 PM (#6141902)
Also Henderson's emergence came about partly due to Mateo's collapse. Early Mateo was starting about 5 out of 6 games at SS and Henderson was kinda splitting time with Urias at 3B (and the non-Mateo SS start and a bit of DH). Urias looks to have hit the IL for a bit in mid-May but even when he came back, he and Henderson pretty much split 3B. So through the end of May:

Henderson 44 GS in 56 team games
Urias 31 GS (+15 games missed during which Henderson started almmost every day)
Mateo 46 GS, hitting 228/273/386

Since then:

Henderson 89 GS in 95 games, 285/327/554
Urias 60 GS, 270/321/383
Mateo 47 GS, 197/253/286

Meanwhile, Holliday has been ridiculous. Just 19, a year after being drafted, he has played 4 levels this year (A, A+, AA, AAA). He's finally hit a bit of a struggle at AAA (but still a walk-heavy 391 OBP) but on the year has hit 325/444/501. The kid's about to reach 100 walks. Have we ever seen anything like this? I put his HoF chances at 72%. :-) (Sure, sure, point out the guys who succceeded in the majors at 19 to kill the buzz.)

EDIT: I forgot to mention Jordan Westburg who the O's called up in late June. He's had 15 starts at 3B (31 at 2B, 1 at DH). He's 24 and only solidly above-average so far so he's pretty boring on this team.
   464. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 20, 2023 at 08:06 PM (#6141914)
Lance Barrett, the home plate umpire for tonight’s Blue Jays @ Yankees game, is apparently not satisfied with having MLB’s largest strike zone, and from the start expanded any reasonable zone to include numerous pitches well off the plate as strikes. Coincidentally, Yankee Manager Aaron Boone exited before two innings were completed.
   465. Howie Menckel Posted: September 20, 2023 at 08:06 PM (#6141915)
really good and really bad stat graphics back-to-back on MLB Network:

- Greene's 14 K are the most by a Reds P since 2000 - Ron Villone. So it's been more than two decades, and it's a pitcher with a "name," but who remembers him on the Reds? This is after he was a Mariner Padre Brewer and Indian but before he was a Rockie Astro Pirate Astro again Mariner again Marlin Yankee Cardinal and National. good graphic

- Steele's ERA for Cubs is the team's lowest since.... 2016. not long enough ago, it was the year the team won the WS, and TWO pitchers beat this year's mark of Steele. bad graphic
   466. Howie Menckel Posted: September 20, 2023 at 09:05 PM (#6141921)
nerves of Steele?

he's up 1-0 in the 4th tonight vs the toothless Pirates, who then get:
single
single
single
single
single
single

and he's yanked. RP waves the 2 inherited runners home, and Steele's ERA balloons to 3.00.
   467. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 20, 2023 at 09:31 PM (#6141924)
Possible he's out of gas?
   468. The Duke Posted: September 20, 2023 at 09:48 PM (#6141926)
I think Snell wrapped up the Cy last night
   469. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2023 at 10:02 PM (#6141927)
Ron Villone. So it's been more than two decades, and it's a pitcher with a "name," but who remembers him on the Reds? This is after he was a Mariner Padre Brewer and Indian but before he was a Rockie Astro Pirate Astro again Mariner again Marlin Yankee Cardinal and National.
Filed away for Immaculate Grid.
   470. Booey Posted: September 20, 2023 at 11:50 PM (#6141928)
I think Snell wrapped up the Cy last night


So after this season, the list of pitching legends to win a CYA in both leagues will be:

Gaylord Perry
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Roy Halladay
Max Scherzer

and...Blake Snell

(one of these things is not like the others...!)

   471. Booey Posted: September 21, 2023 at 01:07 AM (#6141929)
Corbin Carroll got his 25th HR and 50th SB tonight. Here's the 25/50 club as best I can tell:

1973 - Joe Morgan: 26/67
1973 - Cesar Cedeno: 25/56
1974 - Cesar Cedeno: 26/57
1976 - Joe Morgan: 27/60
1985 - Ryne Sandberg: 26/54
1986 - Rickey Henderson: 28/87
1986 - Eric Davis: 27/80
1987 - Eric Davis: 37/50
1990 - Rickey Henderson: 28/65
1990 - Barry Bonds: 33/52
2007 - Hanley Ramirez: 29/51
2023 - Ronald Acuna Jr: 39/67*
2023 - Corbin Carroll: 25/50*

Did I miss anyone?

(Bobby Witt Jr is right on the verge with 29/48)
   472. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2023 at 01:12 AM (#6141930)
fwiw, I believe Carroll is the first rookie to do it.
   473. Booey Posted: September 21, 2023 at 08:11 AM (#6141935)
#472 - Yeah, Trout missed it by 1 SB in 2012.
   474. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 21, 2023 at 10:18 AM (#6141938)
So it's been more than two decades, and it's a pitcher with a "name," but who remembers him on the Reds?


The Reds would be the only team I know Ron Villone pitched for. Who can forget him and Reds relievers 1 hitting the Diamondbacks while Randy Johnson gave up a solo hr to Dmitri Young in the bottom of the 1st while on his way to pitching a complete game, striking out 17 Reds, and ultimately losing 2-0. I was there, so, I never will.

Edit: while I can't remember every game I have gone to I am fairly certain this game for me is the only 1 hitter I have attended and the game with a starter having the most strikeouts I have ever seen live. But, it was a different team for each feat. Fun game for one with basically zero offense.
   475. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 21, 2023 at 10:31 AM (#6141939)
Looking it up, that was the second game in that amazing stretch where Randy Johnson was basically unhittable 40ip, 62k, 5er and he went 0-4 with a no decision. D-backs were no-hit in his previous start by Jose Jiminez
   476. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2023 at 02:24 PM (#6141963)
The Immaculate Grid* now links to its archive, making previous games available for those who got a late start or have a short memory. Looks like there are 172 in the inventory. Better get on it, the Workforce Productivity Commission is likely to ban the site soon.

*The thread about the Grid is now closed to comments. Perhaps that one should be an exception to the current comment window.
   477. Walt Davis Posted: September 21, 2023 at 05:12 PM (#6141980)
Steele's ERA for Cubs is the team's lowest since.... 2016. not long enough ago, it was the year the team won the WS, and TWO pitchers beat this year's mark of Steele. bad graphic

Welcome to Marquee sports! The other day they had one noting that Jordan Wick was "just" the 4th Cubs rookie starter to go at least 6 innings with 2 or fewer runs in his first start at Coors.

I only saw it for a couple of seconds so I didn't catch the content but last night they had a graphic on the next batter's result after a Tommy Hottovy (Cub pitching coach) trip to the mound ... which jinxed Steele I assume.

And, yeah, the Reds is the only team I associate Villone with.

#474: I was at Burt Hooton's classic 7-walk no-hitter for the Cubs in 1972. It's all been downhill since then.
   478. Walt Davis Posted: September 21, 2023 at 05:34 PM (#6141983)
Perry won his first CYA at age 33. Hard to argue with it -- he had 11 WAR in 342.2 IP (he did NOT lead the league in IP). The year before he had 2.3 WAR in 280 IP. He probably didn't deserve his 2nd one at 39 but writers love voting for old farts and his league-leading 21 wins gave them an excuse -- 4.3 WAR ... coincidentally Burt Hooton was 2nd that year ... Niekro's 10 WAR was good enough for 6th. :-)

The first one came after the unusual Perry for Sam McDowell challenge trade. McDowell was 4 years younger, had been pretty awesome in 1970 but, surely feeling the effects of 300+ innings, walked over 6/9 in 1971 (but still a decent year). After the trade, Perry went on to pitch 3,056 innings with a 116 ERA+ and of course 2 CYA; McDowell threw 383 innings with a 87 ERA+. That worked out to 56 WAR vs 0.6 WAR. Robinson-Pappas was just 44-24 ... this one was closer to Bagwell-Andersen 80-4.
   479. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2023 at 05:47 PM (#6141986)
I looked up how old McDowell was when he died - and wtf he's 81 years old !

turns out, per SABR bio, that he quit the bottle for good in 1980 - five years after he drank himself out of baseball at age 32.
   480. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2023 at 09:26 PM (#6142002)
Gerrit Cole probably already had the AL Cy Young sewn up, but his 8 innings, 2 hits, 1 run effort tonight should clinch it. Hit the 200 inning mark, too. Yankees lead Blue Jays 5-1 in bottom of 8th.
   481. The Duke Posted: September 21, 2023 at 09:41 PM (#6142004)
I posted the other day that I had used bWAR to track Actuals performance Dans zips projections and was told I shouldn't use bWAR to compare to zips since zips is effectively fWAR. I didn't think that was true and asked Dan in his chat today.
He didn't answer directly but I post the Q&A below.

"I have a question about how to use your team/player zips forecast data at beginning of year. Is Zips a forecast of fWAR? If not can I use bWAR or fWAR "actuals" to compare to your projections ? Which WAR is best to use to compare ?

Dan Szymborski

1:06 ZiPS is kinda in the middle
ZiPS already models a "weak contact ability" which it "gives" back to pitchers above or below their FIP-based "

He didn't answer directly but I take his answer to mean that zips is a hybrid and that you can use either form of WAR to compare to its forecasts

Would anyone here agree/disagree ?
   482. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2023 at 10:31 PM (#6142006)
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
25m
The Mets, at 71-82, are now guaranteed a losing record.

Excluding shortened seasons, they are the fourth team in Major League history to post one the year after winning 100+ games, joining the 1986 Cardinals, the 1971 Reds and the 1932 Cardinals.
   483. Tony S Posted: September 22, 2023 at 07:11 AM (#6142010)
Well, two of those three teams won the pennant the following year, so Mets fans have some hope. And the third won the WS two years later.
   484. salvomania Posted: September 22, 2023 at 02:43 PM (#6142034)
Four outs into the Cubs-Rockies game there have been five baserunners but the double no-hitter is still intact.
   485. Howie Menckel Posted: September 22, 2023 at 07:39 PM (#6142064)
Corbin Burnes starts since July 25:
2 ER, 6 IP
2 ER, 6 IP
2 ER, 6 IP
5 ER, 5.6 IP
0 ER, 7 IP
6 ER, 6 IP
1 ER, 7 IP
4 ER, 6 IP
0 ER, 8 (hitless) IP
4 ER, 5.6 IP

0-3 in that span, with 6 "Quality Starts" in 10 tries

Brewers tonight got 12 runs in the second inning for a 12-0 lead.

is this the end of the schneid?
   486. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 22, 2023 at 07:53 PM (#6142066)
Aaron Judge’s 3-run HR (#33) to CF (420 feet) gives the Yankees a 3-0 lead over the visiting Diamondbacks.
   487. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 22, 2023 at 08:27 PM (#6142067)
Judge gavels a 2-run HR (#34) to right center (379 feet) in the 5th to make it 6-0 Yankees. That’s 5 RBI for Judge, and he also has a double.
   488. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 22, 2023 at 09:10 PM (#6142069)
Judge adds a solo shot to RF (383 feet) in the 7th (#35). If I heard the YES broadcast correctly, that’s Judge’s 6th multi-homer game of the season, giving him 4 seasons with at least 6 multi-homer games, which ties Babe Ruth, Jimmy Foxx, Mark McGwire & David Ortiz for the most such seasons. Good company.

That HR also puts Judge in a tie for the 3rd in the AL. At the pace he’s on, he’d have 55-60 if he hadn’t missed two months. 7-0 Yankees after 7.
   489. Bote Man Posted: September 22, 2023 at 09:43 PM (#6142070)
Brewers clinch a post-season berth behind a strong outing on the mound by Rowdy Tellez.
   490. Booey Posted: September 22, 2023 at 11:51 PM (#6142074)
Acuna becomes 5th player with 40/40. And 1st with 40/50. And 40/60. And even 30/60. Soon to be 40/70.
   491. Tony S Posted: September 23, 2023 at 08:49 AM (#6142078)


The Astros are now 2-5 against the two worst teams in the league over the last two weeks.

They don't deserve to make the playoffs.
   492. The Duke Posted: September 23, 2023 at 10:35 AM (#6142079)
So apparently the Nats can't participate in the draft lottery because of their market size ? So they will finish 4th worst and can only draft 10th. Not quite sure I understand. Is this a one time thing or can they never draft first ?
   493. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: September 23, 2023 at 11:45 AM (#6142080)
491--If it helps the Crew is getting close to win its division but remain I think the only team the A's swept on the road this season. #### was that a brutal watch
   494. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2023 at 04:30 PM (#6142092)
The Astros are now 2-5 against the two worst teams in the league over the last two weeks.

They don't deserve to make the playoffs.


This is why you should be a Cub fan. We are 3-4 against the Rox and Pirates over the last 1.5 weeks and totally deserve to make the playoffs.
   495. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2023 at 04:38 PM (#6142093)
11 straight balls from a Rox reliever, one of which was a strike, followed by a ball that was called a strike, now another ball and we have a pitching change.

His name is Nick Mears. My brain immediately wondered "is he related to Rick Mears?" Then my brain wondereed "who was Rick Mears?" A weird sensation to know the name but not remember why. Indy 500 driver, won it 4 times it seems.

EDIT: Don't worry, Rick Mears is still alive, a spry 71.
   496. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2023 at 04:39 PM (#6142094)
17 pitches into the inning and the Cubs finally swing.
   497. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2023 at 08:17 PM (#6142107)
Marlins and Cubs win, Reds up 9-1, DBacks postponed. If I heard Boog and JD correctly yesterday, the Cubs lose the tiebreaker to each of those teams.

In a move I don't recall ever happening before ... the DBacks and White Sox were due to play Mon thru Wed in Chicago but they DBacks will now play tomorrow and Mon in NY then Tues-Thurs in Chicago. Per reports, the weather forecast suggests they won't be able to fit in two tomorrow in NY but should be able to fit in one. Swapping a scheduled game for an unscheduled one won't be good for the Sox but they've only been drawing 15,000 to weekday games and maybe they're getting compensated. (The Yanks were not off on Thurs.)

Meanwhile in Tex, the Ms have sent 18 guys to the plate through 4 innings and have scored zero runs. Not that that's shockinng but 6 LOB thru 4 in a "big" pennant race matchup is not ideal.
   498. Howie Menckel Posted: September 23, 2023 at 08:33 PM (#6142108)
"why, back in my day...."

09.23... Luis Arraez was removed from Saturday's win over the Brewers with an apparent leg injury, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtraBase.com reports.
Spin: Arraez slipped on the dugout steps when the lights were turned off at loanDepot park for Tanner Scott's entrance in the top of the ninth inning. Garrett Hampson took over at second base for the final frame as Joey Wendle entered to play shortstop. Arraez, the MLB batting average leader at .353, just returned Friday from a two-game absence for a left ankle sprain and could now need more time off in the heat of the Marlins' NL wild-card hunt.
   499. Bote Man Posted: September 23, 2023 at 08:44 PM (#6142109)
How 'bout them Os?! John Means gives a much-needed breather to the Orioles bullpen to maintain pace with the Rays.
   500. Howie Menckel Posted: September 23, 2023 at 10:06 PM (#6142117)
incredible choke job by the Reds tonight, blowing a 9-0 lead and losing, 13-12 to the hapless Pirates - who didn't even have reliable closer Bednar available.

9-1 after 5 innings, kid SP Phillips allows 2 singles to start the 6th.
anonymous RP waves them right home, not his problem and it's 9-3. oops, he also allows a 3-run HR and it's 9-6.

same guy loads 'em up to start the 7th, and next-man-up in bullpen immediately allows a 3-run double - not his problem! - and it's 9-9.

top 8th, and Reds bring in closer Alexis Diaz. tie game, not the 9th, not a save situation - any closer worth his salt knows what to do here:
HBP
single
single
single
flyout
single
double, and it's 13-9 Pirates and ADiaz is done

13-11 after 8, Reds get to 13-12 in the 9th against someone named Carmen Mlodzinski.

runner on 3rd, 1 out for - Elly De La Cruz. not at all the guy you want when you need contact (an amazing 136 K in 362 AB). Reds seem to be out of PH candidates, and Elly whiffs for the 3rd time tonight. a flyout then caps the pathetic collapse.
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