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Friday, September 01, 2023
One month to go. Atlanta and LA are the only teams that have (essentially) wrapped up their divisions, each with a magic number of 16.
The AL Wild Cards right now would be Tampa Bay, Houston, and Texas. Toronto (2.5 games back) and Boston (6.5) are the only conceivable threats.
In the NL, the Phillies, Cubs, and Giants lead a trio of teams for the Wild Card—DBacks (1 game back), Reds (1.5), and Marlins (3). Count the Brewers in that mix since they lead the Central by 3 games and would have to fall pretty far to lose the division and miss the playoffs
NaOH
Posted: September 01, 2023 at 02:14 PM | 472 comment(s)
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Crazy that the division was in play as recently as a week ago and now they are hanging on to that second wild card spot by the skin of their lousy base-running teeth.
This is not a championship-quality team. I expect them to get flicked away quickly in the playoffs (should they make it).
Fortunately for them, the Mariners and Rangers have been quite sporting about not taking advantage.
27-14 record
220 runs scored 5.4 runs/game
148 runs allowed 3.6 runs/game
In 15 games so far this September the Crew is allowing only 3.1 runs per game
The NL league average in runs allowed per game is 4.66
//courtesy a poster on brewcrewball though I could have done same via BBREF. But he/she did the work so wanted to acknowledge
Like Taylor for season doesn’t look good but since 8/1 he’s slugged over .500. Santana has hit some dingers. Frelick not awesome but at least competent. Monasterio better than Anderson which was a low bar. Canha has been legit awesome
Made all the difference especially since D hasn’t suffered. Meanwhile bullpen incredible and top 3 starters taking turns being NL pitcher of the month
While it certainly wasn't inspiring, this is a bit harsh (but technically true). The Manfred Man has radically changed run-scoring expectations in extras. There have been 518 R, 335 UER in 464 IP (a few of these "legit" UER) or 1 UER every 6.23 BF or 6.5 UER per 27 outs. (Or 10 runs per 27 outs) In the 9th inning, there have been just 98 UER or 1 UER every 149.48 BF or 0.26 UER per 27 outs.
It's the most radical run-scoring environment we've ever seen and we shouldn't expect a 1-run lead to be protected. So the terminology we use of the "blown" save is maybe OK in a typical save situation but seems unfair in a 10-run/9 environent. And of course we expecially can't expect a 1-run lead to be protected in this environment when it's Drew Smyly in his 3rd inning of relief. It's really on the Cubs' offense which did at least do its job in getting the MM across the plate but couldn't score a real run in 4 extra innings despite 5 H, 3 BB and only 1 K with 8 LOB.
We almost never see a save opportunity these days which is a reliever coming on in the 9th with no outs and a man on 2nd but it would be interesting to compare those situations to thexe extra inning situations. There may be something about extras ... or about usually having used all of your best relievers already ... that makes it even worse in terms of R/9. Even just how often -2- with 0 outs results in that runner scoring.
They also had a lot bad breaks, like the overturned Bellinger call, the non-HBP of Bellinger, and the bizarre Swanson play in the 13th that tied the game up.
angels and one of Houston, Toronto and Texas. Others in the next group: SF, Red Sox, stl. It's one thing not to win the WS ,but that's a a lot of high payrolls to miss the whole post season.
So that leaves the dodgers, Braves, rangers, Astros, blue jays, Phillies, cubs to pull on out for the high salary crowd
FWIW, bWAR puts the Cubs at -1 on baserunning but +7 on DP avoidance -- which I can kinda believe, they sure seem like maybe the fastest Cubs team I've even seen even if maybe not the wisest. bWAR rates Nico (+5) by far the best on the team with Swanson and Tauchmann (both +2) doing fine and only Seiya doing poorly (-3) ... I'm not sure where this is captured in WAR but there have been at least a couple of times where he's ade a bad decision on trying to stretch a single. But he's also 6 for 13 in steals which is very ungood in this day and age. Wow, I didn't realize Nico had passed 40 SBs and they have a god's honest PR specialist in Mastrobuoni (10 for 11 in steals).
We'd better rack up some wins vs Pitt and the Rox cuz then it's Atl and Milw. Of course those two will be in full cruise mode, resting guys for the playoffs, so maybe they'll take pity on us. (Atl lost 16-2 today to the Fish.)
109 SB
12 CS
Lindor 26/2
SMarte 24/4-IL
(Pham 11/1)
McNeil 9/0)
(Canha 7/0)
Locastro 6/0
Ortega 6/1
Mauricio 5/0
the rest are 15/4. notables:
Alonso 4/1
Nimmo 3/3 (boo !)
they are only 10th in NL in SB, and of course have the fewest CS.
league average is 110/26
Lindor 27/2
Mauricio 6/0
9 of the 12 CS are by OFs
The Astros need this game more. But the Orioles have had the kind of season that creates new baseball fans.
So I'll just sit back and enjoy whatever happens.
"Torn" came out over 25 years ago.
Now the rest of you chumps feel as old as I do.
usually only in Week 1, but this year it was on 9/11 - so the only MNF game played was in the Meadowlands.
ABC gets live TV shows that take on reruns out there from rivals.
they're also rolling out another "Dancing With The Stars - Half Of Whom I've Never Heard Of" series - as well as a Bachelor version with a 72-year-old dude (who, to be fair, looks like he's maybe 55).
funniest comment I heard on the latter was that, to make it a true "reality show," include a 22-year-old blonde among the two dozen contestants in Week 1.
he runs off with her, and there is no Week 2 episode.
:)
I know that nobody remembers pitchers like Early Wynn staggering to their milestone wins, but I was afraid the Cardinals would "piggyback" Wainwright to get it.
just the other day, Aaron Nola had a lead, got 2 outs in the 5th, allowed two singles, and he's out.
Strahm comes in to face one batter and gets him.
Phillies never blow the lead, so Strahm gets one of the cheapest wins you'll ever see.
but here, Wainwright "blood and guts," MLB Network called it, through 7 scoreless innings in a 1-0 win.
if nobody else remembers it, I will.
Gibson HOF
Haines HOF
Wainwright
those are your 3 STL franchise 200-game winners
You referenced an Aussie singer who's big moment came when singing in the opening ceremony of the Olympics here in 2000. That is a seriously obscure reference. Walt got it as I believe he was living here and is now slumming it in the land of the long white cloud.
It's great that he threw a pretty darn good game to get it, none of this 5 IP, 5 ER but the Cardinals got 7, so he "earned" the win type of thing.
Plesac said his body language early was terrible, and his fastball was under 85 mph. he got it up to 87 or so, but they couldn't believe how he concocted this gem.
his next turn would be in SD over the weekend, then it could be at home the final weekend vs. the Reds.
if Reds at that point are already in - or out - of the playoffs, it would be easier to just have Wainwright take the hill, then tell him that he'll know "when" it's time.
and make it mid-inning to maximize the fanfare.
a lot of the most legendary golfers who are former British Open champions choose St. Andrew's in Scotland - the birthplace of golf - as their swan song. there's a famous bridge - forget it if it's the 17th hole or the 18th - and they pause there and take in all the history and all they have accomplished. it's always an emotional scene.
Wainwright isn't Tom Seaver or anything, but dude, stop before you reach the dugout and do a 360-degree turn. no delay of game penalty coming.
(Seaver is an interesting comparison. he finished up his amazin' career with the Boston Red Sox in - wait for it, wait for it - 1986. He did not pitch in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and was left off the postseason roster. Yet Seaver was in the Shea Stadium dugout - in uniform, no less - for both the Buckner Game 6 and the Mets rally in Game 7 to win the WS, just as he was when the Mets won their only other WS in 1969 behind a Shea Stadium CG from teammate Jerry Koosman.)
Nobody remembers what they said just a few weeks ago:
Off, of course, Ryan Pressly.
Ryan O'Hearn has a five-hit night.
You were lying naked on the floor while watching it...?
The Astros and Orioles are my two teams. Life was a lot easier when they were in opposite leagues.
26 Ted Simmons, 1979 (all as C)
22 Ted Simmons, 1978 (18 as C)
21 Ted Simmons, 1977 (all as C)
21 Ted Simmons, 1980 (19 as C)
20 Ted Simmons, 1974 (18 as C)
22 Yadier Molina, 2012 (all as C)
20 Yadier Molina, 2018 (all as C)
21 Joe Torre, 1970 (11 as C, 10 as 3B)
20 Willson Contreras, 2023 (19 as C)
Interesting that Contreras has just 1 HR as DH despite having 127 pa there.
As C he is hitting .282/.362/.519 in 360 pa, as DH he is .217/.347/.330.
Since then, though, Contreras has been, quite literally, one of the best hitters in MLB:
Since June 13 (61 games, 81 team games): .338/.429/.603, for a 1.032 OPS, in 239 PA.
In spite of his brutal 2+ first months, Contreras has produced a season right in line with his best years with the Cubs.
As mentioned, "Torn" was a major international hit in 1992 and in very heavy rotation on MTV, no doubt partly thanks to Ms Imbruglia being rather fetching (even to an old fart like me) ... and not a bad video as these things go. And still fetching at 48. Anyway, "Torn" is one of the all-time great 1-hit wonders and made many of the 1992 guilty pleasure lists I saw. It would be the Aussie national anthem if not for the Divinyls. :-)
It wasn't until I got to Oz 20 years later that I learned she was Aussie and was on ... was it Neighbors or the beach soap?
EDIT: 5th time the Cubs have scored 10+ against the Pirates this year. At least their 23rd on the season.
EDIT2: Cody Bellinger strong like bull. 13-1
And it's over just like that. Still a 0-0 game and now approaching silly ball extra inning rules
So crazy. 30/60 had never even happened before. The previous high in stolen bases for a 30 homer season was 52 by Bonds in 1990. The high for a 40 homer season is 46 by ARod in 1998. And the previous high in homers for a 60 (or 70) stolen base season was 28 by Rickey (twice).
That Acuna guy is pretty good.
I thought it came out around 1997-1998-ish?
Edit: Yeah, Google says 1997.
So does he project as mostly a shortstop or a 3B going forward? He's split time between the 2 positions almost equally this season.
#456 ... he got off to a slow start with a 659 OPS through April and still just over 700 through May. The O's were going great but not as great as the Rays and Gunnar hadn't been a big part of the O's success to that point so he wasn't getting noticed, if anything a bit of a disappointment. Since the end of May, 285/327/554 with 22 HRs. Also DRS rates him at +14 but statcast at +2.
Looking at his gamelog, now I remember. For some reason, early he was walking like crazy but doing almost nothing else. Through May 12 he had 25 BB in 126 PA and a bizarro line of 170/341/310. I assume somebody told him to start swinging the f'ing bat. Maybe he was hurt? Since then he's had just 26 BB in 453 PA which is too far the other way. But, not even close, 285/330/550 beats the snot out of 170/340/310.
Gunnar Henderson slipped under the radar outside of Maryland, probably because he got off to a slow start at the plate and didn't register in the early RoY narratives. His morphing from Roy Howell to George Brett in the span of four months is probably the biggest story of the Orioles' season. He's the one Oriole with long-term superstar potential (He's 22; Adley Rutschman is three years older).
He's got a howitzer arm which isn't quite Cal Ripken-accurate yet, but (like his hitting) has improved every month. Whether he settles in at short or third probably depends on Jackson Holliday.
It's a nice problem to have.
Henderson 44 GS in 56 team games
Urias 31 GS (+15 games missed during which Henderson started almmost every day)
Mateo 46 GS, hitting 228/273/386
Since then:
Henderson 89 GS in 95 games, 285/327/554
Urias 60 GS, 270/321/383
Mateo 47 GS, 197/253/286
Meanwhile, Holliday has been ridiculous. Just 19, a year after being drafted, he has played 4 levels this year (A, A+, AA, AAA). He's finally hit a bit of a struggle at AAA (but still a walk-heavy 391 OBP) but on the year has hit 325/444/501. The kid's about to reach 100 walks. Have we ever seen anything like this? I put his HoF chances at 72%. :-) (Sure, sure, point out the guys who succceeded in the majors at 19 to kill the buzz.)
EDIT: I forgot to mention Jordan Westburg who the O's called up in late June. He's had 15 starts at 3B (31 at 2B, 1 at DH). He's 24 and only solidly above-average so far so he's pretty boring on this team.
- Greene's 14 K are the most by a Reds P since 2000 - Ron Villone. So it's been more than two decades, and it's a pitcher with a "name," but who remembers him on the Reds? This is after he was a Mariner Padre Brewer and Indian but before he was a Rockie Astro Pirate Astro again Mariner again Marlin Yankee Cardinal and National. good graphic
- Steele's ERA for Cubs is the team's lowest since.... 2016. not long enough ago, it was the year the team won the WS, and TWO pitchers beat this year's mark of Steele. bad graphic
he's up 1-0 in the 4th tonight vs the toothless Pirates, who then get:
single
single
single
single
single
single
and he's yanked. RP waves the 2 inherited runners home, and Steele's ERA balloons to 3.00.
So after this season, the list of pitching legends to win a CYA in both leagues will be:
Gaylord Perry
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Roy Halladay
Max Scherzer
and...Blake Snell
(one of these things is not like the others...!)
1973 - Joe Morgan: 26/67
1973 - Cesar Cedeno: 25/56
1974 - Cesar Cedeno: 26/57
1976 - Joe Morgan: 27/60
1985 - Ryne Sandberg: 26/54
1986 - Rickey Henderson: 28/87
1986 - Eric Davis: 27/80
1987 - Eric Davis: 37/50
1990 - Rickey Henderson: 28/65
1990 - Barry Bonds: 33/52
2007 - Hanley Ramirez: 29/51
2023 - Ronald Acuna Jr: 39/67*
2023 - Corbin Carroll: 25/50*
Did I miss anyone?
(Bobby Witt Jr is right on the verge with 29/48)
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