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Friday, September 01, 2023
One month to go. Atlanta and LA are the only teams that have (essentially) wrapped up their divisions, each with a magic number of 16.
The AL Wild Cards right now would be Tampa Bay, Houston, and Texas. Toronto (2.5 games back) and Boston (6.5) are the only conceivable threats.
In the NL, the Phillies, Cubs, and Giants lead a trio of teams for the Wild Card—DBacks (1 game back), Reds (1.5), and Marlins (3). Count the Brewers in that mix since they lead the Central by 3 games and would have to fall pretty far to lose the division and miss the playoffs
NaOH
Posted: September 01, 2023 at 02:14 PM | 711 comment(s)
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And with 2 more stolen bases, Bobby Witt Jr will join him. If Witt can add another homer too, he'll stand alone in the 30 HR, 50 SB, 10 triple club.
Hi Duke. I wanted to get back to this comment. First off: I am sure you are more plugged into the day by day goings on in MLB. And as I have admitted, your predictions have shown to be better than the usual primate so I take your comments seriously. So checking around the various prediction algorithms:
predictor.......... NL odds of winning WS.......... WS win: ATL odds vs LA odds
Fangraphs: ........... 57% ..... 21.4 15.8
ATC ..................... 58% ..... 26.7 15.1
season to date stats 56% ..... 19 20.2
baseball reference ... 57% .....18.4 16.2
I totally get what you're saying until I get to this statement. WHy (or how) would it possibly matter?
Would the Phillies really be better to win against the ATL than LAD for example. The NLCS is 7 games they are going to face a variety of pitchers. Its not like a one game playoff where a teams ace might confirm an advantage. And given that we're talking presumably 3 rounds of playoffs, hence more data points. HOw can it possible make a difference who they face??
Angel's just giving the people what they want! All those fans came to see him, not Harper, right?!
Ain't the beer cold!
Rain was forecast to start sometime this evening and rain all the way until Sunday morning, so you can't blame Mother Nature for the rain. But while I was otherwise disposed, apparently there was about a 20 minute window during which they could have played the remaining 4 outs (unless they tied and went to extras). Skip Schumaker was furious with the groundskeeper and gave him a piece of his mind on the field.
Ultimately, the game was suspended, to be resumed Monday if it still impacts the playoff picture. Cubbies lost, so there's that flicker of hope left for the Marlins.
If a Union umpire can basically do whatever he wants in judgement call situations then it is possible that when behind the plate he could just decide to call every pitch that bounced three feet in front of the plate as a strike. Out in the field he could call every pitch a balk. And he could decide that every appeal on a check swing was a strike (or not) regardless of whether the batter even took the bat off his shoulder, or took a full swing. He could ignore the game and make whatever calls he wanted without repercussions, because it's all in his judgement.
Is that really where we are with Angel Hernandez?
Arizona Diamondbacks (2019) Merrill Kelly
Atlanta Braves (2017) Ozzie Albies
Baltimore Orioles (2017) Anthony Santander
Boston Red Sox (2017) Rafael Devers
Chicago Cubs (2014) Kyle Hendricks
Chicago White Sox (2016) Tim Anderson
Cincinnati Reds (2007) Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians/Guardians (2013) Jose Ramirez
Colorado Rockies (2011) Charlie Blackmon
Detroit Tigers (2018) Spencer Turnbull
Houston Astros (2011) Jose Altuve
Kansas City Royals (2011) Salvador Perez
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim/Angels (2011) Mike Trout
Los Angeles Dodgers (2008) Clayton Kershaw
Miami Marlins (2020) Jesus Sanchez
Milwaukee Brewers (2015) Adrian Houser
Minnesota Twins (2014) Jorge Polanco
New York Mets (2016) Brandon Nimmo
New York Yankees (2015) Luis Severino
Oakland Athletics (2017) Paul Blackburn
Philadelphia Phillies (2015) Aaron Nola
Pittsburgh Pirates (2019) Bryan Reynolds
San Diego Padres (2019) Fernando Tatis Jr.
San Francisco Giants (2011) Brandon Crawford
Seattle Mariners (2019) Dylan Moore
St. Louis Cardinals (2004) Adam Wainwright
Tampa Bay Rays (2017) Andrew Kittredge
Texas Rangers (2016) Jose Leclerc
Toronto Blue Jays (2017) Tim Mayza
Washington Nationals (2010) Stephen StrasburG
A final post to put you out of your misery
1. Zaidi is about to go
2. Zaidi knows who he wants and wants to act now
3. Zaidi is forcing the owners hand on whether he stays
NFL-style tiebreakers for making vs missing the playoffs: bad idea all around.
He grounds out.
(according to a tweet it's the Cardinals's second-hardest-hit ball tonight, 102.1 mph)
10 HR, 75 RBI, 39 2B, 2 3B, .193 AVG in 742 career AB.
that feels like the Mets DHs in 2023, lol
hit .262 with an 89 OPS+ in 2017 at age 35, then fell off the table offensively
• this year’s Cy Young
• three 25+ HR hitters
• 2nd-best team ERA in NL
• a closer with a 1.16 ERA
• 3rd-highest offensive fWAR in NL
• 3rd-fewest errors in NL
What they also had? A bunch of owners mad as hell about their spending.
(But not really late? Within minutes last night, Sportsnet (Canada) posted a package of "Worst Angel Hernandez Calls of All Time" I remember watching so many of them! One of the lowlights shown was AH making a horrible call in 1998, so he's not just "bad" like day-old bread, he's been bad for decades, and even a non-baseball fan like Mrs. Snowboy can see and smell his mould.)
The continued employment of Angel Hernandez, when he is so objectively terrible at his job, had me thinking about my own workplace. We had a guy last week sitting on a forklift, passed out...slowly moving across the warehouse. Someone pulled him off before he killed someone or punched through the wall, lots of people just laughed and shrugged. But my point of complaint is that this guy is a known problem and it wasn't his first day being a problem. The company knows it, the union knows it, but how long do they/us all put up with it before they just get rid of him?
Pay him out if you have to {am I talking about AH, or my coworker, or both?}
{It's both.}
Let's make the workplace better by getting rid of a hazard. We and MLB would be better to fire an objectively terrible employee, and move on with hiring someone off the street. If they don't want to go down the road of explaining their personnel decision, just fire him "without cause" and let him hire a lawyer and sue for wages and damages? Just eat one or two or ten million $$, and let us not ever talk again about Angel Hernandez?
Wainwright hit a home run during batting practice yesterday.
It's not earth shattering amount. He's 62. I assume mandatory retirement is 65. It's got to be less than $5 million to get him to walk.
With Bobby Witt Jr hitting his 30th homer last night and getting the Royals their first entry into the 30/30 club, which 7 teams have still never had a 30/30 season?
Bonus: What two 30/30 seasons were split between 2 teams?
Cardinals are correct (surprisingly considering they had Lankford and Gant in the 90's).
Cubs are not correct. Sosa did it in 1993 and 1995.
The belief is that no amount of money could force him out. And he won’t let his body force him to retire
Think the dude is fueled by spite
The home plate ump was passed by the manager (?) of Phillies who ran out to save his guy from taking a swing at Harper
Also like the third base coach half way put his arm up like hey don’t swing but sure if you really want to go ahead
Also appreciate a well of hostility from a non middle aged white mfer. Really tired of that drill.
Hernandez is also a super twisted form of performance art. How can I suck at my job? Let me show you the ways.
But now 6-6 in the second
they could be playing for seeding, but a forfeit would underscore how meaningless it is - in this NL season, anyway - as to whether you are the 5 or 6 seed.
face the lady - the Brewers - or the tiger - the Phillies?
both are daunting tasks, and it's not worth the travel to NYC to finish off the 9th inning of a game to find out which one you get - compared to the negative effects of all that travel from Pittsburgh to NY to wherever.
even worse, the situation is squarely on the shoulders of a Mets field crew that either misread a weather report - or more likely, didn't take precautions to take care of the field in case the forecast was wrong.
has the consultation to the 3rd (or 1st) base umpire become automatic now?
not only could the home plate ump presumably tell what really happened on Harper's non-swing, asking for help on a call from Hernandez is like ..... ok, that's the next contest !
:)
He was traded in the off-season to the Expos and never played again, apparently. So a 1-0 record and a WHIP of 0.700 for his MLB career, such as it was.
Weird, but neat.
it could be Orion Kerkering - yes, that's a real person.
2022 5th-round pick out of South Florida who sailed through basically every rung in the Phillies' organization this year. just made his 3rd appearance in the majors (K'd 2 Mets), and his MGR said after just one outing this week that he wants this 22-year-old kid on the postseason roster.
Phillies don't exactly have a lockdown closer, so.......
- acknowledged the improvement in umpire conditioning (no more Eric Gregg-like figures out there)
- pointed out the problems with Angel and what he represents in a era when umpires can and are empirically measured in public
- inquired if automated balls and strikes need to be negotiated with the umpire union
- and inquired when the next umpire contract is due for review
I had said Devers like 75 posts ago…glad I didn’t spend time checking afterwards to figure out who it really was after you said that one was still open <shrug>
Rays
Angels
White Sox
Brewers
Phillies?
Question being:
Has any pitcher ever not thrown a strike in a starting role? I gotta think 12 straight balls and then being yanked has to be a record
Acuna’s 380 total bases this season are the third most by an active player (i.e., most TB in a season by a currently active player). Who are the other 9 guys in the top 10 (Hint: two of them are also this season, and it is indeed 9 different guys).
Rays and White Sox are correct.
Angels are not. I can understand forgetting about Bobby Bonds in 1977, but Trout's rookie year in 2012 is a pretty obvious one. ;-)
Brewers are not correct (Tommy Harper, Ryan Braun twice, Christian Yelich), and neither are the Phillies (Bobby Abreu twice, Jimmy Rollins)
3 more left!
I think the 2 with more than 380 are Charlie Blackmon in 2017 and Aaron Judge last year.
Guesses for the others in the top 10:
Freddie Freeman this season
Matt Olson (ditto)
Nolan Arenado in his Coors heyday
Miguel Cabrera in his prime seems like an obvious one, right?
Paul Goldschmidt?
Stanton in his 59 HR season?
Jose Ramirez when he had like 56 doubles and 36 homers (or were those in different years)?
wanted to doublecheck on Harper and.....
1969 --- 9 HR, 73 SB, 89 OPS+
1970 - 31 HR, 38 SB, 146 OPS+
first one was with the Seattle Pilots, the second was the franchise's first year in Milwaukee
changes in latitude yada yada yada!
that has the only year he ever hit 20 HR, but he cleared 30 SB two other times (with the Reds, and with the Red Sox)
Arenado has seasons 12, 13, 15, and 22 but isn’t in the top 10.
Neither are Goldschmidt or Ramirez.
I always found it interesting that Miggy's Triple Crown year was his WORST overall hitting season in the 4 year span from 2010-2013:
2010 - .328/.420/.622 (178 OPS+)
2011 - .344/.448/.586 (179 OPS+)
2012 - .330/.393/.606 (164 OPS+) - TRIPLE CROWN
2013 - .348/.442/.636 (190 OPS+)
(led league)
Charlie Blackmon 2017 - 387
Ronald Acuña 2023 - 380
Miguel Cabrera 2012 - 377
Giancarlo Stanton 2017 - 377
Matt Olson 2023 - 365
_______________ - 363
Freddie Freeman 2023 - 360
Mookie Betts 2016 - 359
________________ - 359
I will guess Padres as not having a 30/30 guy. They are always on those lists of “teams that have never had a ______”
Yeah, the Pads are a good bet on all those lists (like, teams that have never had a guy hit more than 163 career homers for them!).
And yes, they are correct on this list as well, at least temporarily. Tatis Jr has seasons of 42/25 (in 130 games) in 2021 and 25/29 this season (in 139 games), so he's a decent bet to end that streak one of these years (and to pass Colbert's HR record, although Machado will get there first).
2 more teams without a 30/30 season...
Arizona Gardensnakes.
And the Duh-TROY-it Tiggers?
Yep, those are the last 2.
I can't think of anyone who even came close for the Tigers. My best guess was Granderson, but he was a ways away with seasons of 23/26 and 30/20 (also a 41/25 with the Yankees).
For the D-Backs, Goldschmidt had that surprise 32 SB year, but that was one of the rare seasons when he DIDN'T hit 30 homers (24). He also reversed it another year and went 33/21. Of course, Corbin Carroll is at 25/54 as a rookie, so he could easily make this all a moo* point sometime down the line.
* Like a cows opinion. It doesn't matter.
7 - Giants
6 - Braves, Mets
4 - Brewers
3 - Yankees, Guardians, Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Phillies, Nat/Spos, Rangers
2 - Orioles/Browns, Angels, Pirates, Cubs, Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, Marlins, Red Sox
1 - A's, Royals
0 - White Sox, Cardinals, Tigers, Twins, Padres, Rays, D-Backs
2 - split between 2 teams
1984 - 27 HR / 29 SB
1985 - 29 / 30
1986 - 28 / 34
1987 - 24 / 26
Aaron Judge 2022 - 391
Charlie Blackmon 2017 - 387
Ronald Acuña 2023 - 380
Miguel Cabrera 2012 - 377
Giancarlo Stanton 2017 - 377
Matt Olson 2023 - 365
Vlad Guerrero Jr. 2021 - 363
Freddie Freeman 2023 - 360
Mookie Betts 2016 - 359
Rafael Devers 2019 - 359
EDIT: More here: Tough business.
-Braves need 3 homers to surpass the 2019 Twins record of 307(!). I had no idea the record was so high (especially cuz I couldn't think of a single slugger on that Twins team without looking it up). Braves are also slugging .501 as a team, so with a good game today they'll become the first team ever to slug .500 overall. So basically, their team AVERAGE is a typical Manny Machado or Eddie Murray season.
-Freddie Freeman needs a double to become the first player since 1936 with 60 in a season. There's been more 60 homer seasons than 60 double seasons.
-Bobby Witt needs a stolen base to join Eric Davis (1987), Bonds (1990), and Acuna as the only players to go 30/50 in a season.
-Kyle Tucker needs a homer to become the 5th 30/30 player this season, which would break the tie with 1987, 1996, 1997, and 2011 to set a new record. Not sure if anyone is on the verge of adding to this one, but there's also eighteen 20/20 players this year, just 1 short of the record set in 1999.
-Maybe no one cares about batting average anymore (except me!), but we have a good old fashioned batting race in the A.L., with Corey Seager and Yandy Diaz essentially tied at .330. Seager is at a fractionally higher .330 though (.3298 to .3295), so we'll see if any "resting" shenanigans occur
Edit: RIP Wakefield. That really sucks. :-(
Morbid of me, I know, but as I noted in the Wakefield-Schilling thread, I find myself wondering whether any previous MLB veterans died on the final day of the regular season.
How can these guys lay off pitches that close???
I don't know where it ranks among long-running franchises but the Tigers have only 54 seasons of 30+ steals. And 34 of those seasons came before 1920. Other than Gibson, the only Tigers with some power who made it to 30 SBs were Juan Encarnacion (career high 24, 19 with the Tigers) and Trammell (seasons of 28/21 and 21/25 but just 14 in his 30 steal season).
-Kyle Tucker needs a homer to become the 5th 30/30 player this season
Did he just get it? With an inside the parker?
-Maybe no one cares about batting average anymore (except me!), but we have a good old fashioned batting race in the A.L., with Corey Seager and Yandy Diaz essentially tied at .330. Seager is at a fractionally higher .330 though (.3298 to .3295), so we'll see if any "resting" shenanigans occur
It's not shenanigans, Yandy Diaz is gimpy. He and Randy Arozarena are not in the Sunday lineup today, resting (like many) for the playoffs which will start on Tuesday. But it might work out okay for him? Seager is apparently 0-3 so far today?
Edit: Obviously not being terrible the last couple of weeks would've rendered the decision about whether to engage in shenanigans irrelevant, since Seager was cruising along with a .344 batting avg and a comfortable lead as late as Sep 15th.
- right now thr scorer has called it a triple and scored on error - although mccarthy didn't bobble the ball or throw it when he did get hold of it. it i total horseshtttt seeing as how i've seen a LOT worse plays that were NOT called an error
We're running about 100 deaths a year among former major leaguers, with a bulge in 2020-21, so a former major leaguer probably dies on a specific day of the year about once every 3-4 years. Most, of course, weren't prominent players.
They won the night before, with a two run hit to win the game, when they were down to their final strike.
Today they did not lay down. They fought like lions again, behind the pitching of George Kirby, to take down the Texas Rangers 1-0. (Some guy named Campbell got the save (aided by the shadows) by getting Semien, Seager, and Garver, with a runner on first.)
If Houston holds on to their 8-0 lead in Arizona, Texas is knocked off the perch of the AL West.
Their freefall continues, they are now a wildcard team, with a bullpen that is a tyre fire.
Houston will take the division crown, with the same record as Texas, because of their head-head tie breaker record. And will suddenly get a bye through the first round.
If Tampa holds their 12-7 lead over Toronto in the 8th, they will host Texas, and Toronto will play Minnesota.
Wow.
(And swim stumbles into third, much less elegantly than Burt Lancaster described hitting a triple as Moonlight Graham.)
I'm thinking...we've had player-pitching alerts in the past, but turnabout is fair play, isn't it? How about Toronto makes sure their pitchers are ready to bat? Let's see a plate appearance by Hyun-Jin Ryu?! What about Yimi Garcia, we want to see his "big daddy hacks" trailing 12-8! (Context: A Toronto loss means they face the Twinkies in the playoffs.)
One of these farewells in Stl went better than the other
Tampa Bay wins 12-8, they will host Texas.
Toronto loses, but their clubhouse is still full of champagne, and guys wearing goggles. They will go to Minnesota.
Well, in this case it was change in longitude :)
Giants and Mets: fire managers
Cardinals: manager says problem children need to be "weeded out". Hmmmm
Yankees: hitting coach says he's been offered a job, so Boone is back?
Cubs: Owner likes Ross. Wants Hendricks back but "that's not my decision". Yeah right. Says payroll is staying flat. Hmmmm
Padres: cutting payroll. Also cutting GM?
Can't wait to hear other front offices of the losers weigh in
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