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Monday, July 25, 2022

OMNICHATTER for the week of July 25-31, 2022

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Hombre Brotani Posted: July 25, 2022 at 05:46 AM | 247 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: July 25, 2022 at 06:45 PM (#6088232)
This article isn't about sports but it does cite Moneyball (as if it was true!) and contains this nugget: The average sports fan gets 3.9 points of happiness when their team wins, but forfeits 7.8 points of happiness when it loses.

So a 667 winning percentage is break-even! No wonder baseball fans are so miserable. Best to be a fan of some college sports dynasty, an NBA super-team or the pre-2022 All Blacks.

Link to a rather fluffy article on how amazing data science is.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 25, 2022 at 08:42 PM (#6088243)
Don't look now but the Red Sox are leading a baseball game! Sure, it's only 1-0 in the 3rd, but still that's a huge accomplishment for this team.

BTW, the starting lineup has 6 guys who really shouldn't be starting on a MLB team. Also Pivetta is on the bump, so my confidence moving into the later innings will wane considerably.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: July 25, 2022 at 09:10 PM (#6088246)
MLB Network is doing a "ManningCast" of sorts of the Braves-Phillies game tonight.

they are featuring CC Sabathia, Cliff Floyd, and Mike Lowell - all of whom for this is not nearly their "first rodeo" of MLB chatting - and revolving guests. have seen snippets of Tom Glavine, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez.

I like it better than the ManningCast, actually. they have had on some great guests and that has made for good TV, but these MLB guys can get the job done themselves. so the guests just add a less-needed element compared to the Mannings, so I like the total product better.

Lowell transferred to another Miami HS as a senior, and Ibanez it turns out was recruited for there. but as a junior, the manager has him playing JV. it's funny to see all of the guys chuckling at what a joke it would be to have a future MLB star playing JV as a junior - and that's even though Lowell mentioned they had Eli Marrero at catcher and a few other guys who also got more than a cup of coffee in the bigs (while not making it big, either). so Ibanez transferred back to his previous HS.

Sabathia talked about never wanting to bat - and right on cue, they showed three Sabathia HRs and they all were rockets. CC actually had a .205 career AVG which of course is excellent. and yes those were his only 3 HR. then they giggled when they said ex-MLBers are asked how many career HRs they had and some try to pretend they don't know the exact number. Floyd in particular laughed at that one.
   4. salvomania Posted: July 25, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6088249)
I'm getting tired of position players pitching.

Willans Astudillo in to pitch the bottom of the 8th for the Marlins against the Reds, down 11-2, and he walks the leadoff batter on four pitches.

EDIT: And he gets out of the inning moments later having thrown a total of 8 pitches. What the hell do I know.
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 25, 2022 at 09:53 PM (#6088250)
Whoa, the Red Sox take a 2-1 lead in the 6th. After the mighty Pivetta gave us 5 2/3 with only giving up 1 run, the Sox have managed to secure the lead again through a BB and double by one of the 3 MLB players starting today.
   6. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 25, 2022 at 09:58 PM (#6088251)
So the next 2 MLB players in the lineup both singled, the Sox are up 3-1. Now up, the AAAA guys....
   7. Walt Davis Posted: July 25, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6088253)
Any Willians Astudillo appearance is to be applauded.
   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 25, 2022 at 10:06 PM (#6088254)
And with 2 on and no one out(including a guy on 3rd), neither AAAA guy could hit a fly, much less a hit, and bring home further runs. Both struck out.

Sox up 3-1 heading into the 7th.
   9. salvomania Posted: July 25, 2022 at 10:18 PM (#6088256)
A.J. Minter enters to begin the bottom of the 8th inning against the Phillies, with the Braves leading 4-3, and he retires the first two batters, then the 6-7-8 hitters go single, single, home run (the latter from a .190-hitting Bryson Stott).

Minter came into the game having allowed just one homer all season, and just 8 earned runs in 40.1 ip.
   10. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 25, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6088258)
Sox hanging on. Welcome back Whitlock with a really tidy 8th, 3 outs on 6 total pitches, 1K. Sox still up 3-1.
   11. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 25, 2022 at 10:54 PM (#6088260)
Whitlock with the 2 inning, 6 out save; nice. Sox prevail 3-1, avoid last place in the ALE.
   12. salvomania Posted: July 25, 2022 at 11:03 PM (#6088261)
Any Willians Astudillo appearance is to be applauded.

I hadn't realized it at the time but he also induced an inning-ending 1-6-3 DP on a hopper back to the mound off a 40pmph eephus pitch. I take back what I said.
   13. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 12:19 AM (#6088267)
There are/were 12 MLB games today. Of the 8 completed, the team with the worse record won.
In 4 that are still going, the team with the worse record is winning 3 of them.
Seattle is up 3-2.
   14. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 01:05 AM (#6088269)
10 from 12 for the team with the worse record today winning today. Nats up 4-1 in the 9th over LA, Rangers down 4-3 with 2 on in the 9th, can they make it 12 for 12 today?
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 26, 2022 at 01:34 AM (#6088270)
The Nationals do their part for Underdog Day, 4-1 over the Dodgers in LA, with the bullpen uncharacteristically contributing 5 scoreless innings, by the skin of their teeth. Juan Soto had a triple, single & BB, seemingly unfazed by the trade rumors.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 26, 2022 at 02:31 PM (#6088321)
Giancarlo Stanton placed on 10-day IL with tendinitis in his left Achilles.
   17. salvomania Posted: July 26, 2022 at 02:32 PM (#6088322)
I think Adley Rutschman has arrived.

After 20 games, he was hitting .176/.256/.257, with 0 rbi and just 4 xbh (all doubles) in 82 pa (74 ab), and a 6/18 bb/k ratio.

In the 30 games since, he's hit .280/.376/.570 in 117 pa, with 19 xbh in 100 ab, and a 15/20 bb/k ratio.

Even with his slow start, he's at a 115 OPS+, at .237/.327/.427.

He's only 4th among AL rookies in bWAR, at 1.8, but each of the three guys ahead of him (Julio Rodriguez, Jeremy Pena, Steven Kwan) have over 300 PA while Rutschman only has 199. He should pass Kwan (2.3) in WAR, but probably won't catch JRod (3.6) or Pena (3.4).
   18. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2022 at 04:56 PM (#6088348)
Contreras and Happ just played their last game in Wrigley as Cubs.

after the last out, Happ put his cap over his heart as he waved to the LF bleacher bums.

Contreras was hugged by a teammate in the dugout in the 9th, and announcer said he never wears a cap in that situation. but he did as the game was about to end.
   19. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 05:59 PM (#6088354)
I think Adley Rutschman has arrived.


For MLB and the Orioles, I sure hope so.

IIRC, the Orioles had a catching prospect who apparently was supposed to be so good he was going to slash 290/360/540 and solve world hunger at the same time. Alas, it didn't quite work out so well for them.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2022 at 06:16 PM (#6088363)
Oh well. Cubs fans gave Contreras a rousing standing ovation in his last PA (ESPN has the highlight). I assume Happ received something similar if the word had gotten out. But there doesn't seem to be an official trade or even an "official rumor" yet. This was the last home game before the deadline so fans seem to have just taken a pre-emptive strike but both guys were acting like this is it too. (It was a really loud and boisterous standing O for Contreras, Cub fans did well there ... might have led to a Wilmer Flores moment!)

If both are gone in one trade, the Yanks would be an obvious destination with Stanton's injury. Contreras could take some of Stanton's DH PAs and Happ as Stanton/Gallo/Marwin replacement in the field. That would also allow the Yanks to keep giving Trevino plenty of playing time. That should cost the Yanks something pretty precious -- Happ has another year of arb and Contreras might be the best C in baseball at the moment and somebody the Yanks would consider extending (though I suspect they'd decide not to).

If they're gone in separate trades (most likely), they could end up almost anywhere.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2022 at 06:20 PM (#6088366)
And it was the Cubs' 6th win in a row. We're the new Orioles.

IIRC, the Orioles had a catching prospect who apparently was supposed to be so good he was going to slash 290/360/540 and solve world hunger at the same time. Alas, it didn't quite work out so well for them.

But Matt Wieters did solve world hunger so there's that. Small consolotion to O's fans I know.
   22. salvomania Posted: July 26, 2022 at 06:49 PM (#6088375)
Contreras might be the best C in baseball at the moment

See #17 above.

Even with his terrible first 20 games, Rutschman is out-WARring Conteras on a rate basis, with Rutschman putting up 0.90 bWAR per 100 PA, and Contreras putting up 0.82 bWAR per 100 PA.

Jose Trevino (1.17), Alejandro Kirk (1.07), and Tyler Stephenson (0.93) have the three highest bWAR/100 PA among all MLB catchers, and Will Smith, Jonah Heim, and brother William Contreras all have higher bWAR/100 PA than Contreras.

Notably, all the catchers above Willson are under 30 years old, while he has just crossed that theshhold (turned 30 in May).
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 26, 2022 at 07:16 PM (#6088380)
Judge gavels HR #38 to RF (423 feet). Good start.

EDIT: And Rizzo follow suit to LF (#23). 2-0 Yankees over Mets.
   24. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 07:18 PM (#6088382)
Yankees showing the Mets whose boss of NY.
   25. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 07:33 PM (#6088384)
Mets battling back, at this rate it's going to be one of those 16-14 games....Fun stuff to watch 2 good teams(unlike my Red Sox) play baseball.
   26. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2022 at 07:48 PM (#6088388)
Yankees showing the Mets whose boss of NY.

that aged poorly.

Montgomery threw 33 pitches in the first inning - SNY booth dryly notes that his season-high is 97. Mets 4-2 after 1 inning.
   27. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 07:49 PM (#6088389)
In the no one cares but me category, Sox already down 2-0. The winning streak of 1 is already under threat.
   28. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: July 26, 2022 at 07:56 PM (#6088391)
that aged poorly.
Too bad the Amazins can't face Montgomery every night.
   29. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 08:10 PM (#6088395)
Guardians putting the hurt on the lowly Red Sox, up 5-0 now.

Sox enter phase of season where they are looking to offload some cattle for some magic beans...

JD will be gone in the next few days for sure, but not really sure what you can get for a good 35 year old DH? Not much I would imagine.
   30. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 08:20 PM (#6088397)
Red Sox have gone with the 4 players who should be in a starting line-up look today. Down 5-0, they have no chance of winning this game. Like none, nada, nothing, f*ck-all.
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2022 at 08:22 PM (#6088398)
interesting play - Lindor hits a grounder to 3rd, but throw is headed right for .... the head of Lindor.

he ducks, but ball hits him on the side of the helmet and a run scores to make it 5-2.

Rizzo half-heartedly chats with ump, maybe was Lindor out of the baseline. but SNY booth explains that there can't be interference on a throw from the third baseman, and he wasn't out of the baseline anyway. Keith notes that Rizzo chose poorly. he said once a throw is that bad, you come off the base to make the catch and prevent the run from scoring. instead, Lindor winds up on second base to boot.
   32. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 26, 2022 at 08:54 PM (#6088406)
JD will be gone in the next few days for sure, but not really sure what you can get for a good 35 year old DH? Not much I would imagine.
Probably right on that, and the DH slot likely won’t be nearly as productive in 2023 & beyond without Martinez. Theoretically, Boston could bring him back as a free agent, but that seems unlikely given the expectations for next season.
   33. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 08:55 PM (#6088408)
Sox now down 7-2, their 44% MLB players in the line-up will never chase this down. The Sox stink. They can't pitch, field nor hit.
   34. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 09:03 PM (#6088410)
Probably right on that, and the DH slot likely won’t be nearly as productive in 2023 & beyond without Martinez.


For the last few games the Red Sox have not had more then 3 or 4 players who belong on a starting card in a MLB team. Another unproductive slot isn't going to make a hill of beans of difference at this stage. They need to sort our Devers and Xander and go from there.
   35. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: July 26, 2022 at 09:35 PM (#6088419)
TBS notes that Ottavino wears 0, not 00. Makes me wonder, can you have a 0 AND a 00 on your roster? As a math teacher, I know they are the same number. In baseball (or basketball) are they considered the same number?
   36. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2022 at 09:49 PM (#6088431)
SNY notes that entering today, the Yankees' 200-run differential against opponents this year is the most through 97 games since the 1944 St. Louis Cardinals.

Dodgers second at +178, then Astros +107, Mets +82, and Braves +74.

meanwhile, Rizzo does something that every player should do until MLB is forced to fix a stupid rule.

2-2 count, pitch is low and inside, Rizzo almost swings at it and does nothing to get out of the way. it nicks his foot on a bounce, and looks like he'll get first base.

the simplest fix is, if you get hit on a bounce, it doesn't count. the alternative is, how about trying to get out of the way (which Rizzo never does)?

... and in an homage to the "Final Destination" horror series, the Yankees try a double steal with Judge (he's now 11-for-11 this season) and Rizzo. Mets C Nido smartly goes after Rizzo, and he makes a crappy slide so he's done in by the "you reached the base safely but then your foot went off the bag for a millisecond" call - not a popular one on BBTF, but that is the rule, alas. and Rizzo cheats death no more.
   37. JJ1986 Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:00 PM (#6088438)
I don't like sending Ottavino out for a 2nd inning.
   38. JJ1986 Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:11 PM (#6088442)
I hate the Yankees as much as everyone should, but I do feel kind of bad for Gallo.
   39. JJ1986 Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:14 PM (#6088444)
TBS notes that Ottavino wears 0, not 00. Makes me wonder, can you have a 0 AND a 00 on your roster? As a math teacher, I know they are the same number. In baseball (or basketball) are they considered the same number?
You can definitely have both in the NBA. For MLB, I don't remember it, but Paul Lukas wrote this:
There’s also one example from MLB: The 1985 Blue Jays had Al Oliver (0) and Cliff Johnson (00) on the roster at the same time.
   40. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6088446)
See #17 above. and ensuing list of Cs

First I said "might."

Second, sure

Rutschman 50 career games
Trevino 80 "career" OPS+
Kirk 128 career starts (at C or DH), but 4 WAR/full C year, in the running
Stephenson 190 games, about 3 WAR/full year, currently hurt
Heim 87 "career" OPS+
William 90 career starts anywhere, 44 this year
Smith obviously in the running, about 4 WAR/full year

So sure, Smith and Realmuto are in the running; Kirk is doing all he can and is finally getting regular playing time. Rutschmann is just starting out, get back to me a year from now but sure, it's possible he's the best right now.

Willson's WARs 2017-22: 3.9, 3.1, 3.2, (1.0), 4.1, 2.9 ... you know what you're getting here, 3-4 WAR and no sign yet of slowing down.

Now Cs (almost) never get 650 PA in a season but b-r calculates it easily enough.

Contreras 2017-22 4.8
Rutshcman 5.8
Smith 2020-22 5.2
Realmuto 2017-22 4.9
Kirk 5.6 (<650 career PA)
Stephenson 4.2 (<650 career PA)

There's not really a lot to choose from there -- the best rates are for the small sample guys (no surprise). It's fair enough that pitch framing metrics don't like Contreras and b-r doesn't include those. Something like fangraphs is probably less kind to him. Fg might be less kind to all of these guys for all I know.

(Understandably my reference to "right now" might have led you towards "this season's results." In my parlance, "right now" always includes at least the recent past. It is about "the best going forward" but in this context we're only looking forward two months. Playing the hot hand is not usually a good strategy and, even as good as they've been, Rutschman, Trevino, William and even Kirk are the hot hands with no track record. If we were real GMs of course we'd add scout and nerd opinion to that. If you prefer, Rutsch, Kirk, Stephenson might be the best in the game right now but that claim comes with very wide error bars; Realmuto and Contreras (and whoever I've forgotten) might be the best in the game, a claim with fairly narrow error bars; Smith is somewhere in between. Needless to say, for trade purposes, it doesn't matter how good Kirk, Rutschman, Smith, Realmuto, Rutschman, Stephenson are because they're going nowhere but my claim wasn't that Contreras might be the best available C.)

Rutschman ... let's not get carried away yet. He had 15 terrible starts (153/231/220 with 0 HR in 65 PA); then he had 14 awesome starts (327/375/673 with 3 HR in 56 PA); then he had 16 solid starts (224/343/431 with 2 HR in 70 PA ... quite good OPS for a C in 2022); his last 2 games is 2 for 5 with 2 BB and 1 HBP. So all looks quite good so far but it's still just 2-3 weeks of Bill Bergen, 2-3 weeks of Josh Gibson and 2-3 weeks of what is more likely to be the real Rutschman.

Rutschman's peripheral WAR components are excellent for a C. He might be the next Contreras. :-)

Oh yeah ... ZiPS RoS

Rutschman 1.4
Contreras 1.4
Kirk 1.0
Realmuto 1.8
Smith 2.1 (yowza, we have ZiPS answer I think)

Steamer is a bit more conservative with a range of Contrera 1.2 to Kirk at 1.8
   41. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6088449)
Gallo strikes out 45% of the time - most of any batter in baseball.
Diaz strikes out 51% of his batters - most of any pitcher in baseball.

"The Race Is Not Always to the Swift, Nor the Battle to the Strong - But That Is the Best Way to Bet"

lol. indeed.

btw, this not only is the first time the Yankees and Mets have ever faced each in the regular season with both in first place (mostly the Mets' fault), it's also the most games over .500 the Yankees have ever been entering a series vs the Mets AND the most games over .500 the Mets have ever been entering a series with the Yankees.

atmosphere is absolutely electric.

if you missed this one (there is a little left), try for tomorrow night - Max Mad against sacrificial lamb Domingo German.

if Mad is dealing early - which is likely - Citi Field is going to be even more of a madhouse than tonight.
   42. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:20 PM (#6088450)
Sox down 9-2, with the Orioles win today, the Sox have finally managed to occupy last in the ALE. Let the fire sale begin! Oh well, at least, well you'd think, we'll get to see how good some of the young guys are/aren't.
   43. JJ1986 Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:22 PM (#6088452)
Yankees pitcher just started and stopped with no balk called. Not sure why that's allowed.
   44. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:23 PM (#6088454)
ESPN reporting that #2 pick Druw Jones hurt his shoulder in his first BP with the DBacks (he signed for slot) and might be done for the year (that's very vague, don't panic yet).

Bobby Bonds 58 WAR
Andruw Jones 63 WAR

So Druw needs just 158 WAR for the Joneses to keep up with the Bondses.
   45. JJ1986 Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:38 PM (#6088459)
4 more Ks.
   46. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2022 at 10:39 PM (#6088461)
Diaz whiffed LeMahieu, Judge flailed before an excuse-me feeble 2-strike tapper to Diaz that should have been the game-ending DP, whiffed Rizzo, and whiffed Torres.

he's just that much better than the Yankees' best bats - it's not even a fair fight.

and yes, pending a quick revival by Kelenic, the Mets' curious deal to get Cano (and Diaz) from the Mariners not only is not the worst deal in MLB history as has been posited - the Mets are actually winning that trade (bonus points for Cano forfeiting a year's salary).

hey, I didn't see it coming, either, a couple of years ago.
   47. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 26, 2022 at 11:09 PM (#6088470)
Fans in LA chanting “Future Dodger” when Juan Soto bats. Not paying close attention, so I don’t know when they are chanting “Former Dodger” to indicate who should be included in a Soto trade.
   48. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: July 26, 2022 at 11:17 PM (#6088472)
and yes, pending a quick revival by Kelenic, the Mets' curious deal to get Cano (and Diaz) from the Mariners not only is not the worst deal in MLB history as has been posited - the Mets are actually winning that trade (bonus points for Cano forfeiting a year's salary).

hey, I didn't see it coming, either, a couple of years ago.
Yeah, if someone had informed us in the spring of 2019 that Cano would produce only 1.1 WAR while with the Mets and yet the Amazins at the end of 2022 would be winning the trade, you and I and pretty much every Primate would have broken out in hysterics.
   49. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2022 at 11:27 PM (#6088476)
I don’t know when they are chanting “Former Dodger” to indicate who should be included in a Soto trade.

The Dodgers don't have much in the way of young ML talent so probably nobody. Lux would be candidate #1 as he has 4 years left. But given he's fulfilling promise for the first time, the Dodgers won't be excited about letting him go although I suppose they'd just stick Taylor at 2B permanently once he returns from the IL. Will Smith would be a very nice piece obviously but just 3 years of control left, they won't be super-cheap and he'll be entering his age 31 season when he goes FA. There's really nobody on the pitching side. In short, I don't see a single player younger than Soto on the Dodgers' ML roster.

So it will have to be a prospect-laden deal and I'll leave it to the prospect hounds to discuss if that's possible. Or maybe LA fans are just looking forward to Soto's free agence in a couple years when all it will take is money.
   50. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 27, 2022 at 12:10 AM (#6088485)
Will Smith would be a very nice piece obviously but just 3 years of control left, they won't be super-cheap and he'll be entering his age 31 season when he goes FA.
The Nationals appear to be happy with Keibert Ruiz as their catcher of the future (and present), so a package including a catcher may not match up well with the Nationals wish list.
   51. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 27, 2022 at 01:42 AM (#6088486)
Nationals beat the Dodgers again, 8-3, scoring 2 in 8th & 4 in 9th to break open what had been a close game. They go for the sweep tomorrow, probably to the surprise of most.
   52. bobm Posted: July 27, 2022 at 10:22 AM (#6088509)
TBS notes that Ottavino wears 0, not 00. Makes me wonder, can you have a 0 AND a 00 on your roster? As a math teacher, I know they are the same number. In baseball (or basketball) are they considered the same number?

In roulette they are also two different numbers, since at least 1796.
   53. person man Posted: July 27, 2022 at 12:31 PM (#6088565)
last night in seattle, rangers manager chris woodward elected to intentionally walk TWO batters (julio rodriguez and ty france) to load the bases with one out in the bottom of the ninth with the score tied at 4 apiece. can't recollect ever seeing that gambit before.

it didn't work, which ... was not a surprise. sac fly carlos santana game over.
   54. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 02:04 PM (#6088585)
Why WINS are a ridiculous stat, Part 3,067:

Charlie Morton, selected starts since 6/17:
6/17: 7ip, 3h, 0 runs, 9/0 K/BB--ND, Braves scored 0 runs while he was in
6/22: 7ip, 3h, 2 runs, 11/0 K/BB--ND, Braves scored 1 run while he was in
7/03: 7ip, 1h, 0 runs, 10/1 K/BB--ND, Braves scored 0 runs while he was in
7/22: 6ip, 2h, 0 runs, 7/3 K/BB--ND, Braves scored 0 runs while he was in

and so far today, he's pitched 4 scoreless innings against the Phillies, while the Braves have also scored 0 runs.
   55. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 02:09 PM (#6088586)
Why WINS are a ridiculous stat, Part 3,067:


Which is why I push for the popularization of quality starts, especially for the modern game. (although I would tweak it so that once you have achieved a quality start, you can't lose it by staying in the game longer)
   56. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 27, 2022 at 02:35 PM (#6088590)
GM Mike Rizzo says the Nationals won’t dilute the prospect haul in a Soto trade by attaching bad contracts. He also phrased his efforts as “exploring all options”, rather than definitely making a trade, FWIW.
   57. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 27, 2022 at 03:39 PM (#6088613)
MILESTONE ALERT: We’re on the verge of seeing the first movement in the top two of the Age-23 BB Leaderboard since before WWII (PA in parentheses):

1. Ted Williams 495 (2615)
2. Mel Ott 462 (3317)
3. Juan Soto 457 (2420)
   58. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:20 PM (#6088618)
I can't believe MLB is missing out on the massive marketing opportunity of a new #2 in BBs through age 23. :-)
   59. Howie Menckel Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6088620)
Nationals "showcasing" veteran southpaw Patrick Corbin, who gets to 2 outs and a runner on second. then:

walk
single
single
double
single
double
single

and that's all for Mr. Corbin, who allows 6 ER in 0.6 IP (two runners were stranded by the mopup man). he's now about to go to 4-14 with a tidy 6.49 ERA.

best of all, he's free to a good home! (if you're just willing to take on the $40M+ that's still owed. hell, it doesn't even have to be a "good" home....)
   60. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:27 PM (#6088621)
Brohtani do not read this!! Do not go to ESPN either.
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Thou hast been warned
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.
1. Jeff Passan, for no particularly good reason, raises the possibility of an Ohtani trade. He's an FA after next year, he conceivably might cost a bejillion, he'd bring a lot in return, the fans would desert the team.

2. Angels' trainer says that Trout has a "pretty rare" back condition -- a costovertebral dysfunction at his T5 vertebrae -- that he will have to manage for the rest of his career. "We just have to take into consideration what he puts himself through with hitting, swinging on a daily basis just to get prepared, and then also playing in the outfield, diving for balls, jumping into the wall -- things like that." Sounds like a move to DH ... which brings us back to #1.....
   61. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:28 PM (#6088622)
he's free to a good home!

A rescue pitcher.
   62. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6088630)
Padres may have to reconsider their closer options.

Taylor Rogers has blown 9th-inning saves in back-to-back games after the Tigers scored two runs in the 9th to win today. Last night, they merely tied it in the 9th, and the Padres came back to win in the 10th.

Rogers has now been scored on in 7 of his 10 appearances in July (as well as his last appearance in June), which is not what you want out of your closer. Maybe he's being BABIPed to death---20 hits in his last 11.1 IP, with zero homers and just two walks---but you gotta get results.
   63. stanmvp48 Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:52 PM (#6088633)
Leurys Garcia with the tootblan of all time
   64. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:57 PM (#6088634)
Pirates 6'7" SS Oneil Cruz has now played about 1/5th of a MLB season since being called up on June 20.

Multiplying by five, his counting stats look pretty nice: 30 homers, 25 doubles, 20 steals, 80 runs and 105 rbi, in 565 ab (feel free to ignore that .252 OBP!).
   65. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6088635)
Leurys Garcia with the tootblan of all time

According to GameDay: picked off at 3rd base on a walk????
   66. stanmvp48 Posted: July 27, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6088638)
Correct. Would have loaded the bases
   67. stanmvp48 Posted: July 27, 2022 at 05:08 PM (#6088642)
Then Abreu doubled off second on a line drive right in front of them
   68. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 27, 2022 at 05:12 PM (#6088645)
Leurys Garcia with the tootblan of all time
According to GameDay: picked off at 3rd base on a walk????
Is that all? A mistake, sure, but just the result of too big a lead, which wouldn’t seem nearly enough to challenge Ruben Rivera’s status as TOOTBLAN Champion.
   69. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6088646)
#64 ... thanks for the reminder. I saw him the other day and wondered how he'd been doing. The 35%/4% K/BB ratio is really something. Apparently playing solid D though so a poor man's Javy Baez so far ... which is better than 2022 Baez.
   70. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 05:15 PM (#6088647)
Yordan Alvarez kicks one out of the endzone but A's still lead 3-2.
   71. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 07:02 PM (#6088667)
Multiplying by five, his counting stats look pretty nice: 30 homers, 25 doubles, 20 steals, 80 runs and 105 rbi, in 565 ab (feel free to ignore that .252 OBP!).


You can just use the per 162 game average on bb-ref to get a decent feel (and allow his 9 pa from his first season to help lift up his numbers a bit)

   72. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 07:04 PM (#6088668)
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPSTB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos 
162 Game Avg
162 648 618 91 142 25 5 35 122 20 15 25 233 .230 .258 .459 .717 97 284 0 0 0 5 0 


Mostly I'm seeing if the code tag still works right. (this is O'Neil Cruz 162 game average)

Edit: Nope, not really the way I wanted it, would have to manually make changes to get it to look right.
   73. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6088672)
Nope, not really the way I wanted it

Yep, 5 RBI on 25 HR is tough to do! :-) Gotta "love" the 233/25 K/BB ratio though.
   74. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 27, 2022 at 07:42 PM (#6088673)
Red Sox down 3-0 already in the 2nd. "Ace" Eovaldi on the bump for the Sox. With their usual, only 4 of these players belong in a starting line-up batting order, this game is nearly out of reach already.

Sox are now fully immersed in mediocrity but on their way to well below average.
   75. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 27, 2022 at 07:43 PM (#6088674)
The real icing on the cake for the Sox are the 2 errors committed by Cordero already.
   76. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:01 PM (#6088676)
I go off for a 10 minute meeting and Dalbec raises his average above Mendoza with a 2 run shot, Sox only down 3-2 now.

Could this be the moment where Dalbec figures it all out and stops whiffing like 35% of the time, barrelling the ball and stops swinging at balls outside of the zone? My wishcasting fairy says no.
   77. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:12 PM (#6088678)
<i>Did anybody catch that ESPN graphic on pitcher win%? I noticed it was "debuted since 1961" but I assume it had some other qualifier on there because they missed a few. Using b-r's criteria, it's ...

Kershaw 691 (the best to debut since Spud Chandler in 1937)
Pedro 687
Gullett 686 (I think he was missing)
Chien-Ming Wang 667 (I'm sure he was missing)
Scherzer 664

Gullett and especially Wang take a bit of the "wow" factor out of that list and highlight the team success factor. In Wang's case I think it's fair enough, he didn't even make it to 1,000 innings.

The list also shows the impact of treating NeL stats as ML stats -- Ray Brown 729 and Bullet Rogan 698 are #2 and #4. #1 is Al Spalding himself at 795 from 1871-77. Spud Chandler 717 is #3 and I learn that Chandler is not a 19th or early 20th century pitcher as I assumed but a wartime pitcher. He wasn't in the majors until age 29 in 1937 and was still dealing in 1947 at 39 so he wasn't just a wartime phenom but he was the 1943 MVP (20-4, 1.64 ERA, hard to argue with). He did serve 2 years but never went overseas ... but he wasn't playing ball either. The army felt he was too old and injured it seems -- right arm problems! His SABR bio details how much pain he was in for the 46 season and by early July 1947 his arm was toast.

As noted, Kershaw doesn't need the "debuted since 1961" criteria to be #1, could have used #1 post-war. But Scherzer will slip further down the list if Whitey Ford and Vic Raschi (1946 debut) are included. Raschi brings down the wow factor too -- career 1800 innings with a 105 ERA+ but mostly for the early 50s Yanks, going 132-66. He won 6 rings ... with a very solid 2.24 postseason ERA in 8 starts, 60 innings.
   78. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:12 PM (#6088679)
For the Cardinals to have any chance in this series against the Blue Jays, they need 1. good to great pitching. 2. A few of the decent bats to show up.

Albert is showing up 2 for 2 tonight. Another hit last night, his ops+ is now over 100 for the season so that is good. I know earlier someone was making fun of the Red Sox for having 4 non- major league bats in the lineup, the Cardinals have 3 in my opinion. (Yet Gorman is batting 8th)

Edit: and one of the non bats just doubled to drive in the Cardinals second run.
   79. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:17 PM (#6088682)
Did anybody catch that ESPN graphic on pitcher win%? I noticed it was "debuted since 1961" but I assume it had some other qualifier on there because they missed a few. Using b-r's criteria, it's ...


No, but it surprises me that the list isn't dominated by players of the past 20-40 years or so. Good to great pitchers of the current game feel like with current usage patterns have an easier road to high win percentages.
   80. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:23 PM (#6088683)
Do they award black ink for BMI? Asking for a friend currently on second base.
   81. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:33 PM (#6088684)
Since I mentioned him earlier, Gorman is 2 for 2 with a homerun while being surrounded by lack of quality hitters (of course saying that both the guy in front of him and behind him have also gotten base hits)
   82. Addie Joss Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:34 PM (#6088685)
Worst third base coaching I've seen all year - with Albert Pujols and his first percentile sprint speed on second with none out and a one run lead in the fourth inning, Donovan lines a single to shallow right field picked up on the first hop by Teoscar Hernandez. To my amazement, the Cards' coach waves Albert around to an easy 9-2 putout at home. Cards did score another run later in the inning but might have had a bunch more if not for that first out at home.
Bet you Toronto ends up winning a close game.
   83. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:40 PM (#6088687)
the Cardinals have 3 in my opinion.

Hey, with Nootbaar and Knizner each doubling tonight, everyone in the Cardinals' lineup---for the first time in a long while---is hitting over .200.
   84. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6088688)
Three-run jack for Pujols!!!
   85. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:45 PM (#6088689)
Glad he got the jab.
   86. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:45 PM (#6088690)
Albert a triple away from the cycle.
   87. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:50 PM (#6088691)
No, but it surprises me that the list isn't dominated by players of the past 20-40 years or so

Well, it's hard to say who it's dominated by other than (a) guys who played for really good teams, esp if they had short careers and (b) the 60s-70s studs are mostly absent because they all went 20-14 in a good season. Anyway, it's heavy on early guys, it may be heavy on NeLers now that they're added.

B-R's list tend to be too inclusive for these sorts of purposes -- this one goes down to 100 decisions and Wang had 102 in his 854 innings. 11 of the top 20 had 1500 or fewer career innings. Put the criteria at 2500 innings:

Spalding
Kershaw
Ford
Caruthers
Pedro
Grove
Mathewson
Scherzer
Sam Leever
Halladay
Clemens
(Koufax -- 2300 IP)
Gomez
Clarkson
Mordecai
Unit
Verlander
Alexander (Pete not Doyle)
Mussina
Palmer

That gets us through the top 51 on b-r's list with Palmer the only guy from that set of 60s-70s guys. There are 8 "modern" guys from the last 40 years out of 20 in that list but also 7(?) pre-Ruth.

One guy in the list I've never heard of is Dave Foutz, tied with Ford in just under 2000 IP. He was a 1B/OF/P. He had over 4800 PA with a 102 OPS+ so no slouch in the field. He went 147-66 with StL (AA) and Brooklyn (AA and NL) with a 124 ERA+ from 1884-1896. In 1886 he threw 500 innings, grabbed 45 games in the field, went 41-16 (in 59 games, 57 starts with 55 CG), racking up 9.7 WARpit and 11 total WAR. Take that Ohtani!

If you're like me, you're wondering how 500 innings of a 162 ERA+ adds up to only 9.7 WAR but I will leave that with the WAR lords to figure out. (I think it's the cap on Rrep or Rrep is heavily era-dependent.)
   88. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:53 PM (#6088692)
As a Cub fan, I'm tired of hearing you guys brag about having as many as 4 MLers in your lineup.
   89. Howie Menckel Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:53 PM (#6088693)
welp, after 50 years of watching baseball, my ship has finally come in!

the relentlessly imbelic lust by batters who produce a run-scoring two-out hit to then get themselves thrown out at second base has been a taboo topic in broadcast booths forever.

but one of the ESPN guys shockingly noted tonight that Lindor, I think it was, was wise to not try for second after knocking in Nido.

of course! In Little League, a runner sprinting toward second might lure the unsuspecting 11-year-old OF into forgetting about trying to get the runner at the plate and throwing to second instead. then the kid is out, but the run scores. yay, I guess.

at the MLB level? it's ridiculous. you just run yourself out of a chance to add onto your run total - and the risk/reward is not in your favor.

thanks, ESPN!

   90. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 08:59 PM (#6088694)
Not actually watching the game, just gameday, but apparently Albert's hr was a blast.
   91. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:07 PM (#6088696)
#89 ... it depends of course ... runner has to evaluate the chance the runner will be out and force the cut-off man at the mound to make a decision. And of course the risk/reward shifts in the direction of "go for second" when there are two outs. But sure, runners aren't great at this in real time, plenty of times you see the guy go to 2nd when the runner is going to be easily safe. I can't prove it but I'd say they're particularly bad at judging whether the throw is on line -- if it's a step or more away from the plate, the runner's almost surely gonna score.
   92. Howie Menckel Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:24 PM (#6088697)
Mad Max unamused by the impudent Judge hitting a long fly out in his first AB tonight.

next three Judge AB:
K
K
K

and he had no shot. all three swinging.
similar with EDiaz last night, though Judge managed a 2-strike "excuse me" feeble topper back to Diaz at the mound.
   93. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:32 PM (#6088698)
As a Cub fan, I'm tired of hearing you guys brag about having as many as 4 MLers in your lineup.


Occasionally though you get that lighting/bottle thing. AAAA Red Sox player Dalbec has 2 HR and a Sacfly and 5 rbi. Sox up 6-5 after squeezing 6 innings out of Eovaldi.
   94. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:42 PM (#6088699)
Cardinals are leading 6-1, so this is a bit petty, but bases loaded no outs and they don't score a run.
   95. salvomania Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:44 PM (#6088700)
With a 6-1 lead in the top of the 8th the Cardinals don't capitalize on a bases loaded, nobody out scenario.

Now they just have to get six outs before they allow 5 runs for it to not matter.
   96. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:49 PM (#6088701)
Guardians tie it 6-6, but the fun part is that the 3rd! error by Cordero allowed the run to get into scoring position.
What is the game record for errors by one player?
I'm really hoping Cordero can match that as that would be a nice expose on the way this season is "progressing"
   97. Howie Menckel Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6088702)
absolutely mind-boggling pitching move by Showalter there.

up 2-0, head to the 8th, and you send lefty SP Peterson - 3.31 ERA this year but he'll lost his spot to deGrom next week - into the pressure cooker. this ain't Rizzo's first rodeo vs lefties, and he draws a 4-pitch walk. then Torres hits a game-tying HR. Peterson whiffs Carpenter - his third batter - and then Lugo, who should have gotten the inning, looks great to close out the inning.

not quite flashbacks of Britton growing a grey beard in a playoff game waiting to pitch - but really, really dumb.

since 1900, the record for errors by a 1B is 4 - done 4 times, the last in 1939. the other 3 are players actually remembered (for various reasons): Buck Freeman, Hal Chase, and George Sisler.
   98. cardsfanboy Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:55 PM (#6088703)
According to at least one blurb I've read, the Cardinals are supposed to make their final pitch for Soto today/tonight. Considering that the Cardinals keep dropping down the list of likely landing spots for Soto, I'm thinking that they aren't willing to give up the 5 top tier prospects that the Nationals are asking for. I mean it was a fun fantasy while it lasted, but at a minimum the Cardinals were going to have to keep either Carlson or O'Neil and either Gorman or Walker, and with that being a requirement, I don't think a package of Carlson/Walker/Libertore/Winn (and other lower tier) was going to get it done. (and I would never trade both Carlson and Gorman, either one is probably more than I can stomach giving up, both would be ridiculous overpay)
   99. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 27, 2022 at 09:57 PM (#6088704)
absolutely mind-boggling pitching move by Showalter there.


At which time BOTH of Scherzer's eyes turned red!
   100. Howie Menckel Posted: July 27, 2022 at 10:00 PM (#6088705)
Carlson has a forgettable 109 OPS+ in 930 PA for the Cardinals.

THAT'S the hill to die on?

sure, he's only 23 and he has identical and reasonably 'meh' OPS+s of 115 in 2021 and in 2022, but Stan Musial ain't walking in that door in a Carlson uniform. heh, Musial OPS+s at Carlson's age - 151, 177 and 174.

Gorman has a 103 OPS+ in 194 PA. and yes, he is only 22.

you know IS a little like Musial? Juan Soto.
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