Carlson has a forgettable 109 OPS+ in 930 PA for the Cardinals.

THAT'S the hill to die on?

sure, he's only 23 and he has identical and reasonably 'meh' OPS+s of 115 in 2021 and in 2022, but Stan Musial ain't walking in that door in a Carlson uniform. heh, Musial OPS+s at Carlson's age - 151, 177 and 174.

Gorman has a 103 OPS+ in 194 PA. and yes, he is only 22.

you know IS a little like Musial? Juan Soto.

They are both +players who aren't going to cost crap at positions that the team need for the next five years, Soto is an elite player who is going to cost 60 mil or so the next two years, in which the team knows with absolute certainty, will be gone at the end of that time. Soto is a more or less guaranteed 6 war player while Carlson and Gorman are probably close to 3.5 war players. The team is trying to contend continually, not dominate, there is a difference.

There is nobody in the Cardinals front office that think that Soto will sign an extension with the team, so it's literally a 2.5 year player costing roughly his full value in payroll room, limiting options to add players going forward with the other contracts going to Goldy and Arenado. While losing players like Mikolas during that time and not having the ability to sign any pitching while in a farm system that is lacking major league ready pitching that can stay healthy.

Carlson has a forgettable 109 OPS+ in 930 PA for the Cardinals.

3.0 war per 162 games. There is more than ops+ to evaluate the quality of a player, and a 3.0 war player per season is nothing to throw away.

Soto is a great hitter etc... but technically speaking he would be the 4th most valuable player on the Cardinals roster this year.

So the Cardinals won a game without Goldy and Arenado, great, but still disappointing that they had to play without them. Still Albert seems to be able to still carry a team when needed.

Still Albert seems to be able to still carry a team when needed.

The Los Angeles/Anaheim/The Big A Angels of orange county would disagree.

Howie, glad we’re on the same page. I too was baffled by Buck going to Peterson in that situation. I tried to sign in to mention it, but I fatfingered my response and deleted it, so I gave up.

Buck’s move says more about Lugo in that situation, and I’m basically on the same page, Lugo has not been very convincing this year, but I’m not a fan of throwing out your youngish pitcher who has been in the rotation most of the year (can’t remember when his last bullpen appearance was but it wasn’t a tight game against the Yankees). Probably should have went to Holderman… oh wait, we needed the redundancy of another marginally above average hitting DH! At least he’s a fat guy, I like having at least one fat guy.

Oh well, all is well that ends well. Mets need a catcher upgrade though, there has to be someone, I don’t care if it’s Contreras, the Mets have the equivalent of an aging placeholder goalie who is just around as the young team develops at the position now and that’s not good enough. I understand they have a prospect there, but he’s not ready and seasons like this don’t happen very often (for the Mets anyway!) Get it done, though I suspect they won’t, but I also didn’t suspect deGrom would come back this year and I’m hopefully a week away from looking stupid there!

The Los Angeles/Anaheim/The Big A Angels of orange county would disagree.

Ehh, Albert's last full season with the Angels he hit 23 hr and 93 rbi, I'm fairly certain he carried the team in a few games that season.

The issue wasn't whether he could have a good game, the issue was he didn't have enough of them to justify the money or position.

Edit: and of course I'm kinda joking about everything, for a guy who was an offense first player and who was now providing below average offense that is a real issue etc. But at the same time, even on his worst days, the opposition still was going to respect his power potential as a real threat. An Albert Pujols 90 ops+ doesn't really look like an Omar Vizquel 90 Ops+.

I'd be quite happy if the Mets added the Contreras/Robertson package. No interest in Mancini. Bell will probably cost too much. The other easy spot to upgrade would be to get a 4th outfielder with a better bat.

Yeah, to pile on a bit more, I really haven’t cared about any position but catcher all year. Guillorme could replace Escobar if things got too dicey (though he seems to string big enough games/hits together to keep him from completely sinking and his defense is good) and at DH, I would have been fine to just let Davis work through it (wonder who performs better over the next 125 ABs, him or Vogelbach). But catcher is so glaring I feel like I’m taking crazy pills that I don’t see more commentary on how the Mets need to upgrade there. As a Bills fan, it feels like last season where their punter was having some horrid stretches but he’s a real good placeholder and the kicker is having a great year so…

Maybe it matters more in baseball, the pitcher-catcher relationship, but I tend to feel like it’s just one of those things that the pitchers may raise a stink about but they get over it. And also, this is sort of a stretched analogy because it’s treating Nido/McCann like they’re the staff’s personal catcher. Again, what have catchers become? It’s like the standard is “well, it’s a tough job, it’s amazing that they can OPS at all, let alone .500!!”

Okay, I think I’m done ranting, just getting myself worked up for no moves to be made!

An Albert Pujols 90 ops+ doesn't really look like an Omar Vizquel 90 Ops+.

Right, and as you mentioned the 93 RBI, that’s a big reason why. That’s still a very good amount for a season (edit: tied for 31st in MLB in 2019) and for all the problems the stat has with conveying value, it is in fact representative of driving in runs, which is basically the definition of carrying a team.

Andrew Benintendi has been traded to the Yankees, you have to be kidding me?

The Yankees apparently are inexplicably concerned that Giancarlo Stanton may be an injury risk!

Ehh, Albert's last full season with the Angels he hit 23 hr and 93 rbi, I'm fairly certain he carried the team in a few games that season.

Well sure, you ruin the joke when you bring horrible things like facts and stats into it!

There is no doubting though, that for Angels fans, the Pujols tenure would be seen as mildly disappointing.

Andrew Benintendi has been traded to the Yankees, you have to be kidding me?

Anything is better then Gallo for them. Why are you surprised?

Of course now that Benny is with the Yankees, he'll slash 390/440/460 for the next 35 games.

There is no doubting though, that for Angels fans, the Pujols tenure would be seen as mildly disappointing.

I think they did quite well considering Albert was 57 years old when they signed him!

Soto is an elite player who is going to cost 60 mil or so the next two years, in which the team [Cardinals] knows with absolute certainty, will be gone at the end of that time.

One would think that a team willing to pay the price to sign Soto long-term would also offer more for his services at the deadline. We’ll know soon, and I suppose some teams that think they can ‘muddle through’ the next two years might be tempted to just wait for Soto’s free agency.

One would think that a team willing to pay the price to sign Soto long-term would also offer more for his services at the deadline.

They'll make the move, but Walt has said that they more or less expect to be bridesmaids when it comes to signing big contracts, simply because given a choice most players want to live on the coast.

I do love how war can change even when a player didn't play that day. Goldy(5.4) and Arenado (5.1) both dropped their war .1 by not playing in the Toronto series. I know this more than likely has to do with park effects and rounding more than anything, but still it is somewhat funny (and points out a minor flaw).

how does that happen? Its a counting stat no?

Trey Mancini taking his possible last AB as an Oriole at Camden Yards hits a two-run inside the park HR. Baltimore a couple outs from taking three of four from the Rays.

how does that happen? Its a counting stat no?

not really, it's a rate stat masquerading as a counting stat based upon playing time. And it's a team adjusted park adjustment, so if a new park adjusts the value of your teams park it might adjust your value. War won't stabilize completely until three years from now if they are using three year park adjustments or after the season ends if they are using one year. I'm not sure what bWar is using, but I thought it was three.

Yep, park factors would get updated every day. Obviously one game won't make a big difference to the PF but it factors into all of the "relative to average" conponents. Also league-average shifts a teeny-tiny-winy bit every day. By this point in the season, those sorts of changes probably don't amount to more than a small change in the 2nd decimal place but if Goldschmidt was at 5.45 before the game and 5.42 after the game ...

Park factors in pitching bWAR are based on the specific parks in which they have pitched because they don't pitch that often and it could make a big difference. Starting position players of course play nearly every day and their personal park factor will be quite close to the team PF and they've gone with the decision not to worry about the detail there. It might make a difference for bench players though and, more importantly I'd guess, should be adjusted for regular players who missed a couple of weeks or more due to injury -- if you're a Rox hitter who misses say 12 home games and 6 road games, your PF is biased against you.

And last I checked, they do use 3-year PFs which means this year's WAR isn't finalized until the end of next year. (And every now and then they tweak the WAR formula which changes everybody.)

I stumbled across this great Jose Quintana example a few years ago. In 2013, Q threw 200 innings of 120 ERA+; in 2014 it was 200.1 innings of 113 ERA+. The WAR difference though was 5.1 to 3.2 -- 2 wins for a smidgen of ERA+? That caught my eye.

Now there are some performance reasons for that -- he gave up a whopping 8 more UER in 2014, he faced slightly easier competition (4.38 RA9opp 2013 vs 4.19), his defense wasn't quite as bad in 2014. Still, you add all that up and the not park-adjusted RA9avg was about a 4.90 in 2013 vs 4.61 in 2014, a difference of 0.3 R/9. Add the 0.19 difference in RA9 and he was giving up about 0.5 R/9 more in 2013. That explains about 1 to 1.1 of the WAR gap.

But the calculated RA9avg is 5.19 for 2013 vs 4.56 for 2014, a gap of 0.63 R/9 compared with the 0.3 R/9 gap (actually 0.28) in the unadjusted RA9avg. The PF was 106 in 2013 and just 99 in 2014 ... so 4.90 became 5.19 and 4.61 became 4.56.

Of course sometimes there are huge changes in PF from year to year -- but these are changes in 3-year PFs. Still, there are weird years or he could have pitched in tough road parks one year and easier ones the other just due to luck. In this case it was mostly the first one ... but not in the way we think. Here are White Sox one-year park factors:

2012 113
2013 101
2014 101
2015 93

For the years in question, the one-year PFs were the same. The 3-year PFs average across the year before and the year after. So Q's 2013 and 2014 PFs both include 2013 and 2014. But the 2013 3-year factor includes that 113 from 2012; the 2014 3-year factor does not include that and does include that 93 from 2015. The difference between 2012 Comiskey and 2015 Comiskey create a nearly 1-WAR difference in his 2013-2014 performance.

So for 2013-2014: By traditional stats, Q's performances were practically identical yet there's a 2-WAR difference. By non-park-adjusted WAR stats, he was about 1 win better in 2013 yet there's a 2-WAR difference. The 1-year park factors in the two seasons are identical yet there's a 2-WAR difference. Q 2013 picks up nearly a win (or Q 2014 loses a win or some combo thereof) because of the way Comiskey played in 2012 vs how it played in 2015.

It's just a fluke of the model -- models won't fit every data point perfectly much less this sort of comparison of seasons for a particular player. You don't over-tinker with a perfectly good model to cater to a handful of weird cases. 3-year PFs likely do provide a better picture of how a park plays on any given day than 1-year PFs. As the White Sox show, PFs occasionally bounce around by quite a bit, often for no particularly good reason. Most of the time, I wouldn't notice because the pitcher's raw stats are bouncing around too so any WAR differences seem easily explained. But Q got traded to the Cubs and his raw numbers from 2012-15 were incredibly consistent yet his full season WARs were coming in at 3 or 4 or 5.

To make matters more confusing (and projection more difficult) Q's FIP was actually a full R/9 lower in 2014 than in 2013. So by fangraphs WAR, he was worth 1.5 MORE wins in 2014 than in 2013. Fortunately, Q had 14.7 bWAR 2012-15 and 14.2 fWAR so it all comes out in the wash.

not really, it's a rate stat masquerading as a counting stat based upon playing time

Sort of. Technically I'd probably call it a counting stat but the stat being counted is an estimate (that's being updated daily). The issue isn't really that it's a rate per se as that it is a comparison to average with an adjustment for playing time (i.e. to make it a comparison to "replacement").

In short, if you wake up in the morning with 15 HRs then you are guaranteed to go to bed with at least 15 HRs. But if you wake up with 0 runs above average and 12 runs above replacement you may go to bed with -1 runs above average and 11 runs above replacement if you went 0-4 and misplayed a ball. In short, every day you play worse than a replacement-level player, your WAR will go down (but maybe not within rounding); every day you play worse than an average player, your runs above-average will go down. For all intents and purposes, if you didn't play today, both will be unchanged or, more precisely, only changed to an ignorable extent unless you're CFB. :-) So WAR/WAA are essentially counting stats but sometimes (quite often actually) they do count negative numbers.

Stop here unless you are fascinated by bWAR nerdery:

Rrep is a genuine counting stat -- essentially PAs converted to runs at a specific rate. (It does stop counting somewhere around 700+ PAs in a season.) If you didn't play today, your Rrep is unchanged. If you did play, it went up. (Extra nerdy note ... bWAR puts the league difference into Rrep so the conversion rate differs by league-year.)

Each of the sub-components is a counting stat but counting a stat that is a (crude) park-adjusted estimate of how many runs above average the performance has been. That is, on days you play, it can be positive (you played better than the average player) or negative (you played worse). Obviously it's possible to play so much worse than average that it more than counters the increase in Rrep -- that's how we get below-replacement players -- so WAR can certainly decrease too.

If you didn't play today this can change in the two ways already noted -- the applicable park factor has changed by a smidgen or the league averages have changed by a micro-smidgen. Note this can happen with OPS+ or ERA+ too -- even if you don't play, the PF adjustment and the underlying league averages your OBP and SLG are being compared to can change. Throw in some rounding and you can arrive at the park with a 100 OPS+ and leave with a 99 OPS+ even though you didn't play. You sat the bench for a game in Coors, your team's PF went up a bit, your unchanged stats look slightly less impressive.

So WAR is a combination of a traditional counting stat that only goes up when you play and doesn't change when you don't (Rrep) and a "summed stat" that can be positive or negative any day. For an analogy, Rrep is your 2022 income from wages -- this goes up every day you work. RAA is your cumulative 2022 earnings RELATIVE to consumption -- every day you spend less than you earned that day, this goes up; every day you spend more than you earned, this goes down. Total WAR to date then is whether your bank balance today is higher or lower than when you started the year.

In the case of Goldschmidt and Arenado, the analogy for park factors, etc. is inflation. They neither earned or spent anything today and their bank balance is unchanged but prices inflated by a tiny amount so, relatively, they have a smidgen less in the bank.

Now back to stuff that matters ... just saw Josh Naylor hit a double off the Monster (not the finest LF defense the Sox have ever seen) and Naylor seems to be a thin man's Dan Vogelbach.

Aaron Judge walk-off HR (#39) to CF (431 feet) gives the Yankees a very 1968ish 1-0 win over Royals. Yankees had but 2 hits in the game, the Royals only 4.

"HE'S DONE IT AGAIN!"

In the no one but me cares category, Red Sox with a 4-2 win to climb back to .500. They've played 50 games at home 25-25 and yep, you guessed it, 50 games away at 25-25 for an even stevens 50-50.
The very definition of mediocrity, yet still only 3.5 out from the not so elusive wild card!

Are they selling? Are the buying? No one knows. It's like one of those NYC 3 card micky guys, the Red Sox are feinting left and right and you're head is spinning...

I predict the Yankees will be led by Judge to a sweep of the Royals in the postseason... oh, wait.

3-card Monte ... you Aussies sure do talk funny.

What the Sox need then is a shill. Say Rob Refsnyder to the White Sox for cash to convince the Giants they can win a big bet for Bogaerts. Then this offseason you trade one of the minor prospects from the Giants to the Sox for Refsnyder while Bogaerts opts out anyway and re-signs with the Red Sox.

Bill James put the following quiz out. There have been only two players in baseball history that have totaled 700 hits in 3 consecutive seasons. Those two players did it in the same three years, in the same city and the same ballpark.

BTW, Contreras and Happ both in the lineup tonight at SF.

Also, the Giants will be retiring Will Clark's #22 in a couple of days. Apparently originally scheduled for 2020, the time is finally right.

Bringing the not very hard quiz ... there are 12 others, besides Jackie, who have been so honored. Two of them didn't have numbers (should be easy). Clark will be the first non-HoFer.

Before y'all start quickly naming them all, the Cubs are already down 4-0 and it's a lovely sunny winter's day so I'm going for a walk. You can score this one yourselves.

Official list

At Nationals Park tonight, the Republicans beat the Democrats 10-0 in the Annual Congressional Baseball Game, a charity event that raised over $1.5M. Reportedly, about 17,000 tickets were sold, even with a rain delay, which exceeds this season’s average attendance for the A’s, Marlins, Rays, Guardians, Pirates, Royals & Orioles.

Frisch
Cepeda
McCovey
Mays
Marichal
Mathewson

Bill James put the following quiz out. There have been only two players in baseball history that have totaled 700 hits in 3 consecutive seasons. Those two players did it in the same three years, in the same city and the same ballpark.

The hint conspicuously didn’t say for the same team, so I’m going to go with George Sisler and Rogers Hornsby in Sportsman’s Park. Not sure of the exact years though.

At Nationals Park tonight, the Republicans beat the Democrats 10-0 in the Annual Congressional Baseball Game,

…and if the Democrats had won, you wouldn’t have posted about it.

Well done. I assumed it had to be during the 162 game era but I was wrong

I'm running out of names. I assume Barry bonds doesn't count so the only other two I can think of are Mel ott and Hubbell maybe

Sisler held the single- season record for hits until Ichiro wanted to break it, so that was a pretty good place to start.

batters pretending to be pitchers alert: COL Serven and LAD Alberto tonight - and both tossed a scoreless frame.

I wonder if THAT has ever happened before...

. . . and if the Democrats had won, you wouldn’t have posted about it.

Don’t be such an a-hole. I briefly noted the game result in rather neutral fashion, and have probably made occasional similar comments about the Congressional Baseball Game, which Democrats quite frequently won in recent years because they had Louisiana Congressman Cedric Richmond, a college baseball player, on their team, blazing a path as a dominant two-way player long before Shohei Ohtani came to the U.S. Richmond resigned his seat to join Biden’s White House staff (since moved on to the DNC), and the GOP has won the last two games.

If you don’t want to get ribbed occasionally, don’t be such a total partisan mouthpiece.

From MLBtraderumors:

"Red Sox Inform Xander Bogaerts They Have No Intention Of Trading Him"

So I'm guessing by Sunday he'll be wearing someone else's laundry....

Frisch
Cepeda
McCovey
Mays
Marichal
Mathewson

No to Frisch (surprisingly), yes to the other 5.

I assume Barry bonds doesn't count so the only other two I can think of are Mel ott and Hubbell maybe

I'm not sure why Bonds wouldn't count, he's a yes. Ott and Hubbell also correct.

So 4 more to go. I'll give you one -- John McGraw who didn't play much for the Giants (my mistake). So that leaves 3.

Anybody know -- are the Giants the longest-running (unbroken) team name? They've been the Giants since 1885. I assume so as the Cubs were the White Stockings, Phillies the Quakers, Braves the Beaneaters, the Pirates the Alleghenys and Cardinals the Browns (of the AA). The Reds were the Red Stockings and of course had their McCarthy-era stint as the Redlegs. Am I missing anybody?

I feel that Cal Raleigh should be a part of the catcher conversation. His bWAR/100 is up to .94, higher (like Rutschman) if you discount his first games before he figured out what he was doing. He’s not a rookie like Rutschman, only because the Mariners kept him around flailing cluelessly for too many games in 2021.

Raleigh and Rutschman are currently tied in bWAR, though Cal has 50 or so more PAs.

You said the giants were all Hall of famers - bonds is not

Oops my bad.

By the way, I see that mlbtv has "The Bettor's Eye" running every day.

Boy, Chris Bassitt has been pretty disappointing, all things considered. Since posting an ERA of 2.25 in April, he’s now at 4.40 ERA in 88 innings since, after giving up four runs to the Marlins in three innings thus far tonight. He is coming off a pretty good run of five or six starts, and his WAR per BBREF is 1.8 (1.5 fWAR), but he’s been a lot more inconsistent than I was expecting. The Mets are pretty lucky that Taijuan Walker has taken a step forward.

The Aaron Judge Show continues tonight: Part One and Part Two.

Can I share the worst article I’ve ever read?

Gary Cohen taking shots at Yankees embodies why nobody likes Mets fans

Okay, I’m being hyperbolic, but not nearly as much as the article itself. The case against Cohen, who admittedly can get obnoxious from time to time, is pathetic. And I take issue with the Mets choking section, they’ve played well after a great start but the Braves have been borderline fantastic since May, but complaining about that is probably me falling for a troll. Maybe the whole thing is tongue-in-cheek? Thanks, anyway, I hate it so job well done?

Is Gaylord Perry one? I've run out of names - guessing the rest are too far back for me

No more guesses on Giants' retired numbers? In numerical order

Mathewson
McGraw
???
Ott
Hubbell
???
Mays
Bonds
Marichal
Cepeda
???
Jackie
McCovey

Hints shouldn't be necessary here although the second ??? is arguably better known for his non-Giant achievements.

Mets are also pretty lucky that Marte has been sensational because Canha basically has turned into a pumpkin. His year only even looks decent because he had a pretty BABIP inflated start to the season. Mets have received a lot of kudos for their offseason, but honestly, outside of Marte, everyone else has been disappointing. Scherzer included but only because of injury and if he makes it through the rest of the year and doesn’t implode, he’ll be a clear plus too.

This isn’t to really critique them, they did well enough to fill the holes, but it’s been players like Lindor, Carrasco, Walker, Alonso, and Diaz more than the new acquisitions for the most part.

Edit: Ottavino has been great too after a real shaky start and coming off a poor season. Mets were due to not have a bullpen that was a tire fire for once. Feel like I’ve been waiting for it for a decade.

the second ??? is arguably better known for his non-Giant achievements.

Gaylord Perry?

That’s a slump buster homerun for Nimmo to put the Mets up 6-4!

And the mystery of Vogelbach continues, as Buck leaves him in to face the lefty again, as he did against the Yankees. Davis just doesn’t exist, I guess.

Vogelbach is a lifetime .136 hitter with a .487 OPS against lefties. That’s pretty stark. It should be a war crime to bat him against lefties, even against the Marlins in a game you’re winning. It’s the 8th inning, you may not even need to bat Davis for Nido, if that’s what they were thinking.

Perry is correct but is not the second ???

OK, added new hints

Mathewson
McGraw
??? -- the last National League player to ....
Ott
Hubbell
??? -- arbuably better known for his non-Giants achievements ... his first name is even mentioned elsewhere in this thread (different context).
Mays
Bonds
Marichal
Cepeda
Perry
Jackie
McCovey

And Nido doesn’t appear in the 9th inning, with Escobar striking out before his turn.

Basically what I’m saying is that this Buck Showalter doesn’t know what he’s doing! I should totally be mananananager.

Diaz is on a run where he looks like the best 1-inning pitcher in history.

Diaz strikes out the side on 10 pitches. All strikes. A foul tip away from the immaculate inning.

Diaz these last two months may be the most dominant pitcher I’ve ever seen. I don’t say that lightly, but it really seems like getting him to throw a ball lately has been difficult, let alone making contact.

Nice win for the Mets given how Bassitt started and that they were facing Alcantara. After the Braves, I wanted the Mets to go 10-5 (settle for 9-6) before they faced them again, and they’re a very manageable 3-2 away from that now (2 with Marlins, 3 with Nats). The Braves have had a slightly easier schedule since then but the Mets have held their lead. Their schedules seem very comparable the rest of the way, so the division will possibly come down to whether one of the two teams can beat up on the other in the remaining 12 games they play against each other.

ALL RISE! Aaron Judge has gaveled a grand slam to RF. HR #41, his 2nd of the game. 11-5, Yankees over Royals.

Cards wainwright (40) and Pujols (42) got the win and GWRBi the other night. Who were the last two 40 year olds
That accomplished that feat

Other teams really dropped the ball letting the Mariners acquire Luis Castillo.

YES broadcast notes that Aaron Judge now has 9 multi-HR games this season, the most in Yankees history, and it’s only July 29th!

Bill Terry seems to be missing in #156.

Trade market has begun - expect an avalanche of deals now

Terry is correct. Leaving us with just one

Mathewson
McGraw
Terry -- the last NLer to hit 400 of course
Ott
Hubbell
??? -- arbuably better known for his non-Giants achievements ... his first name is even mentioned elsewhere in this thread (different context).
Mays
Bonds
Marichal
Cepeda
Perry
Jackie
McCovey

Would it help if I said the missing guy is definitely in the HoF for his non-Giants achievements?

Noelvi Marte is the main return for Castillo. ESPN says Kiley McDaniel ranked him #12 overall pre-season; MLB.com currently has him 18 (after removing Rutschmann and whoever else no longer eligible) right behind Oneil Cruz (who I assume will be off the list soon). He's a 20-yo SS at A+ having a very solid season with good power (34 XBH in about 390 PA) and reasonable 2:1 K/BB.

I get the feeling that all I need to do to get on a prospect list is change my last name to Marte.

FYI Contreras and Happ in the Cubs' lineup again. Cubs 1-0 over Giants after 6.5 on a Wisdom HR and Stroman going old school by scattering 8 hits and a walk so far. Apple TV factoid: Christopher Morel one of a handful who are 90th percentile or better in barrel % and sprint speed -- Trout, Buxton, Julio Rodriguez ... and I think there was another I've forgotten.

Apparently chilly enough in late July in SF that Cubs' sideline reporter (on whom I have a bit of a crush) is wearing a knit cap.

A well-earned save for Craig Kimbrel tonight

Scott Effross threw what seemed like 40 pitches but was just 23 to load the bases but get out of it in the 7th. The Giants now on 9 hits and 3 BB in 7 innings without a run.

So Apple TV gives you a running "reach base probability" ....

Contreras started at 32%. After ball 1 it was 34%. After ball 2 it was 38%. After strike 1 it was ... 40%? After strike 2 it was back to 32%. After ball 3 it skyrocketed to 46%?? He struck out of course. Why would it go up from 2-0 to 2-1? Obviously the probability of reaching base is pretty high at 3-2 but so is the K probability. But OK, for his career on 3-2, Contreras is at 186/519/296.

Those seem weird. Anybody know (a) does this include RoE; (b) is this a "probability by end of PA" or "probability on this pitch?" (c) is it based on the player's season splits? or (d) the players splits over a few years? or (e) the players season stats multiplied by some generic factor based on the count? and (f) does it include the pitcher's stats too? or (g) does it account for men on base?

And a 10th hit for the Giants, still on 0 runs. (Givens for the Cubs)

These s**t-for-brains Apple TV announcers still haven't figured out that the Wisdom hit was a ground-rule double, which is why the umps raised their hands and Hoerner was held up at third. Embarrassing.

Hoerner walk, Wisdom rocket that may or may not have ticked the line for a ground rule double, Schwindel very high-hopper that pitcher foolishly goes home with although Schwindel credited with a single -- he's not that fast, I don't imagine he'd have beat it out but maybe. Rivas single through drawn-in IF. Pitching change, Cubs 3-0 ... from here, no news is good news.

Hey, whaddya know, at the start of the next inning, some producer finally told these a-holes that it was a ground rule double. Really great job, guys.

Factoid: In his last 4 games in SF, Wisdom is 6-13 with 5 HR and that rocket double. Giants might want to update their book. Cubs 4-2, Giants finally hit a HR for their 2 runs.

I nearly forgot... yesterday, July 29, had a really cool and interesting Birthday Team. No superstars, but solid contributors at every position.

C/manager: Chief Meyers
1B: Dan Driessen
2B: George Cutshaw
SS: Felix Mantilla
3B: Don Wert
LF: Gary Thomasson
CF: Emmet Heidrick
RF: Sam Dungan

Bench: Luis Alicea, Roy Foster, Erv Dusak (emergency/mop-up pitcher)

SP: Jim LaMarque
SP: Earl Moore
SP: Chad Billingsley
SP: Dave LaPoint
SP: Ken Kravec

Relief pitchers: Greg Minton, Mike Williams, Mike Adams, Steve Frey, Jeff Jones (pitching coach)

Jim LaMarque was the last great Black pitcher who never pitched white organized ball. He posted a 47-28 record and 3.19 ERA for the Kansas City Monarchs from 1945-50. That summer, aged 30, he left the Monarchs and joined the Fort Wayne (IN) Capehearts (a strong semipro team in the last era of semipro viability), lured in part by an offer of steady employment with GE that must have meant much to a child of the Depression in rural Missouri, remaining with them through 1958.

Emmet Heidrick was one of the leading all-around centerfielders in MLB, but abruptly retired after the 1904 season - his age-27 year - to pursue lucrative non-baseball business opportunities. (A good modern analog would be Adam Jones; imagine him retiring after the 2013 season because he could make more money elsewhere...) Heidrick died young in the Spanish flu pandemic, but one of his two sons co-founded the leading executive search firm Heidrick and Struggles.

Also, while the Mathewson/McGraw relationship is well documented, who wouldn't love a 300-game winner? The more I studied it, I became convinced that John Tontes "Chief" Meyers was McGraw's favorite player.

Meyers was similar to Yadi Molina in every respect - hitting for average and sneaky power, rarely striking out, plus-plus catcher defense, panache, headiness, and universal respect in the clubhouse - but walked about twice as much. He's 30th all-time in WAR/162 among catchers (min. 2000 PA).

Joey Gallo has 37 hits. Judge has 41 HRs.

Who ends up with more?

Contreras started at 32%. After ball 1 it was 34%. After ball 2 it was 38%. After strike 1 it was ... 40%? After strike 2 it was back to 32%. After ball 3 it skyrocketed to 46%?? He struck out of course. Why would it go up from 2-0 to 2-1? Obviously the probability of reaching base is pretty high at 3-2 but so is the K probability. But OK, for his career on 3-2, Contreras is at 186/519/296.

Those seem weird. Anybody know (a) does this include RoE; (b) is this a "probability by end of PA" or "probability on this pitch?" (c) is it based on the player's season splits? or (d) the players splits over a few years? or (e) the players season stats multiplied by some generic factor based on the count? and (f) does it include the pitcher's stats too? or (g) does it account for men on base?

Considering those numbers are too low for either league splits or an individual split, I almost have to guess that they are averaging out the pitchers split in that number with the hitters split in that number someway. Assuming it was Stroman he was facing, it makes me think that it's likely on the next pitch (Stroman has an obp split this year of .167 on a 2-0 count, and an obp of .385 on a 2-1 count vs .467 after a 2-0 count, and .421 after a 2-1 count.

Mind you, I'm just making a guess based upon looking at Contreras seasonal stats and Stroman's seasonal stats and the leagues overall stats.

LeMahieu leadoff HR (#10) to CF (#410 feet) gives the Yankees a 1-0 lead, then a Judge single, Benintendi BB & Torres double make it 2-0 over Royals. Still no one out, runners on 2nd & 3rd.

Have Yankee game day on, man on first and The Judge is up... in play run... and I'm thinking of course, is he ever not going to have a good game anymore?

ALL RISE! AND REMAIN STANDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GAME! Judge gavels a 2-run HR (#42) to make it 4-0. That’s #200 of his career, too.

You can’t really win the MVP with a third of the season remaining, but Judge is well on his way.

Yankees since ASB:

vs Astros - 0-2
vs Orioles - 2-1
vs Mets - 0-2
vs Royals - about to be 3-0

I'm trying to figure out if there's a pattern there. anyone?

Not really a blockbuster but Phils trade JoJO Romero to the Cardinals for Edmundo Sosa.

Two KC errors put runners of 1st & 3rd, and LeMahieu’s RBI single makes it 5-2, driving Heasley from the game, and bringing on side-armer Wyatt Mills to face Aaron Judge.

EDIT: Judge BB to load the bases, 1 out.

EDIT II: Benintendi pop-up SF on the LF line that required a sliding catch. 6-2.

A lot of 26th man trades being done. Cubs did great on their deal. Phillies stole Sosa. Peralta is a good get

OF David Peralta to Rays, to elaborate

Aroldis Chapman, who has been a bit uneven since coming back from the IL, tosses a scoreless 6th for the Yankees, his 3rd straight such effort. A return to form by Chapman could potentially be quite helpful in reestablishing a dominant Yankee bullpen after losing Michael King.

EDIT: IKF BB, a balk, SB & error on the play throwing the ball into LF makes it 7-2 in 6th.

EDIT II: Judge BB brings on another KC pitching change. That’s 2 BB, single & HR for Judge today. So far.

I looked up the last Giants retired number. Wouldn't have gotten that in a million years even if you gave the obvious clue.

Albert Pujols is very close to taking over 2nd place all-time on career total bases

Matt Carpenter hammers a HR (#15) to RF. #Exceeding Expectations. 8-2.

OK, time for the reveal I guess ... Monte Irvin is the final Giants' retired number. Irvin of course was a NeLer who joined the Giants at age 30 in 1949. He made it to about 2900 PA, 125 OPS+, 19 WAR, 9 WAA and a 3rd-place MVP finish in 1951 for the Giants. In 1941, he hit 395/442/645. He was elected to the HoF by the NeL committee in 1973 which appears to mean he was the 4th NeL player to be inducted (Paige, Gibson and Leonard). I don't really blame anybody for not getting him but he's a name we should all know more readily. The full list in numerical order with Will Clark about to be added ...

Mathewson
McGraw
Terry
Ott
Hubbell
Irvin
(Clark)
Mays
Bonds
Marichal
Cepeda
Perry
Jackie
McCovey

Brohtani ... if there's an easy way to do it, can we make the chatter "stick" to the top of the feed for the week? If it's annoying, don't bother, you do more than enough already.

Players with 15 HRs & 30 RBI in their first 40 games with the New York Yankees: Babe Ruth (1920), Roger Maris (1960) & Matt Carpenter (2022).

Heh. I just deleted my response to [156] it was in my queue but never submitted. I figured the list had been completed.


??? -- the last National League player to ....
...hit .400 over a season? Bill Terry?

??? -- arbuably better known for his non-Giants achievements ...
...he was an outstanding baseball player, but was a Negro, so his stats don't add up or impress. (sorry, he was black? Sorry, again, he was Black?) Also had a long post-playing career doing PR for the Commissioner of Baseball's Office: Monte Irvin

Brohtani ... if there's an easy way to do it, can we make the chatter "stick" to the top of the feed for the week? If it's annoying, don't bother, you do more than enough already.

Seconded and agreed.

And a double ends Carlos Carrasco’s bid for a CG SO. Pulled after 7.2 with 93 pitches. Even with an out, they probably weren’t going 9 with him, but still disappointing to my sensibilities.

There have been 17 CGs in MLB thus far this year. 40 years ago, that number probably wouldn’t have even led the league for a single pitcher. 10 years ago, a team might have had that many (maybe that’s exaggerating? Actually probably, I forget that ten years ago is only 2012!)

Welcome back DeJong, 2 run hr to give the Cardinals a 3-1 lead.

"Pride of the Yankees," starring Gary Cooper and Babe Ruth, is airing now on MLB Network.

not sure if any of this squares with reality, but:
- Pipp leaves in the middle of an AB, says he's still seeing doubled from being beaned the other day
- Gehrig is told to pinch-hit - and he immediately falls ass-over-teakettle as he slips on the long array of bats lying just outside the dugout
- his future wife, near the front row, mockingly calls him "Tanglefoot"
- Gehrig singles, and when he stops at first base, he and she lock eyes
- there's an attempted DP, with the relay to first conking Gehrig square on the noggin
- Manager Miller Huggins intends to take him out, but Gehrig demurs - says he's waited too long to sit now
- "What, are we gonna have to kill you to get you out of the lineup?" says Higgins

Geesh. a 1942 movie? definitely "too soon"