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Monday, September 19, 2022
OMNICHATTER for the week of September 19-26, 2022
Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).
Hombre Brotani
Posted: September 19, 2022 at 02:59 AM | 238 comment(s)
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The article makes a great effort to calculate where #s 60, 61 & 62 might occur, without noting that, assuming Judge does break the AL record, his final HR, not necessarily #62, will be the most historic one. My bet is that occurs in Texas on 10/4, with BDC catching #65, possibly on the bounce, while standing in a beer line.
they will clinch with a win in Milwaukee tonight, or Tuesday, or Wednesday.
question is along the "act like you've been there before" school of thought.
of course, in 60 years the Mets have only "been there before" - postseason - 9 times and not since 2016, so....
DeGrom and Nimmo were "there" in regular season 2016, but did not appear in the postseason. deGrom was a member of the 2015 NL pennant winners.
but is there a practical way for MLB to amend the rule? not sure
Add a lane similar to the one going to 1B. It would also clearly define what "path" the C has to leave open for the runner. Once the C has the ball, the runner can go whatever direction he wants or arguably say the rule is only in effect for force plays at home. There's the annoying practical concern that ever slide at home (much more often than 1B) will wipe out the line in the dirt but you can probably ignore it anyway once the runner reaches the dirt.
Comps for Oneil Cruz ... Tony Batista with a much higher K-rate. Really his season is reasonably similar to Javy Baez's rookie year except that Beaz's BABIP was just 248 (career 330). We don't have EV for Javy's rookie year but the next year (in not many PA) he matched Cruz's 92.7 and he's had full seasons of 91 and 92. The K-rate also suggests Jose Hernandez although presumably Cruz hits the ball much harder than Jose did. If you want to expand beyond IFs, then it's Wily Mo
.31641 Bogaerts
.31621 Arraez
.31619 Judge
Post All-Star Game: Judge .374, Bogaerts .317, Arraez .284
September: Judge .491, Bogaerts .392, Arraez .306
Last 30 Days: Judge .420, Bogaerts .400, Arraez .252
Last 15 Days: Judge .500, Bogaerts .314, Arraez .314
Last 7 Days: Judge .550, Arraez .348, Bogaerts .235
If being hot helps, Judge is looking pretty good.
Freeman, LAD .331
Goldschmidt, STL .322
McNeil, NYM .320
only other NL player at .300 is TTurner at .304
oddly, only one NL OF is hitting above .275 - that's SMarte, NYM, at .292 and on IL so that (meaningless) race is over
:)
.288/.342/.538 across 3 leagues (A, high A, AA)
55 extra base hits including 20 dingers. 16-4 on steal attempts. K/BB not great 118/32
He turns 19 next March.
Same here; it’s hard to fathom. When I was in my early 20s. I worked with a guy who had been a fan of the second As dynasty. That seemed way long before but not 1890s long ago.
Before I was 10, my sixtyish neighbor gave me a few old stamps; a couple of them were on postcards addressed to his aunt who lived with him — they were from the chicago exposition from 1893. Way cool but unfortunately they have no real value.
This moment will always live with Crew fans
Mad Max returned tonight to whiff 8 of his first 15 batters - all of whom have made outs.
more than halfway to a perfecto. but Mets said beforehand they will go "load management" in his return, so maybe 6 innings, I suspect.
UPDATE: damn, 54 pitches in 5 innings to dispatch the postseason-contending Brewers in their barn. maybe he also gets the 7th - and then if it's any manager but Showalter, he might have to pry the ball from Max's cold, dead fingers....
54 pitches through 5 innings, he's doing what he needs to be doing to be given a chance.
deGrom poker-faced in the dugout, maybe thinking, "ok, yeah, he's pretty good also."
lol
with a 5-0 lead and a rested 'pen, this should be Max's long-awaited 200th win as he joins Greinke and Verlander among active Ps.
next up, 125 W minimum (age):
Adam Wainwright (40) 195
Clayton Kershaw (34) 193
David Price (36) 157 (and about to retire)
Johnny Cueto (36) 142
Madison Bumgarner (32) 133
Gerrit Cole (31) 129
UNDER AGE 30 LEADER is Aaron Nola, with 76
He's crushing my team, but it's awesome to watch
Perfecto ended as soon as Scherzer left. If it's not a SHO it can't be a perfect game.
Judge making a run at the Maris mark 61 years after Roger set it must be a sign from the Baseball Gods, eh?
So you go Mr Tellez. Make me proud
Well when I was 5-10, WW2 seemed like the ancient past (even though we were surrounded by veterans). Now the Reagan administration is farther in the past. Growing old sucks, but it beats the hell out of the alternative.
really?
I'm not THAT much older than you, but as previously has been noted, my father flew 35 missions over Germany in WW II as a B-17 bombardier. I didn't think THAT was the ancient past growing up.
my maternal "grandfather" was born in 1870 - "quotes" because pretty much no one born that year would have lived to be 100 as required for me to remember the guy very well (he died long before I was born).
not quite the "President John Tyler descendants" rabbit hole, admittedly.
:)
(Tyler was born in 1790, not a typo, and his last living grandson - yes, really - is 93 years old at last check)
Until Sunday night. Now the Astros have passed them.
Wagner's last game was in 1917, 43 years before Maz's home run. I'm sure millions of fans today remember Lou Brock and Catfish Hunter, who retired in 1979.
Harold Ickes, FDR's Secretary of the Interior, was born in 1874. His son who worked for Bill Clinton is still alive
really?
I'm not THAT much older than you, but as previously has been noted, my father flew 35 missions over Germany in WW II as a B-17 bombardier. I didn't think THAT was the ancient past growing up.
I knew plenty of WW2 vets, but they really didn't talk about it, and they seemed very old to a 5 year old. They were my grandparents generation. It wasn't that long ago in reality, but it seems that way to a kid. It's just like most 20-30 y.o.s. today have no real sense of the Cold War.
That is weird---I posted that comment after the game ended, and the box score showed a 1-for-4.
Now MLB.com shows a 1-for-3 (with Palacio getting the fourth AB) in yesterday's game.
(before going to mlb.com I went to check bb-ref's "Game Logs" for Arraez, but they haven't been updated yet---which seems odd, given it's 2pm EDT and they're usually up-to-date before 10am.)
One of BB-ref's stats is Offensive Winning Percentage. Uses BJ RUns Created per game. Rate stat; no credit for playing time
On the bbref single season leaderboard, many of the best seasons are Negro League stats. If we remove those, Judge's OWP currently is 68th best.
If we remove all season prior to 1963 (so, last 60 years inclusive), Judge moves all the way up to 16th.
If we remove the likely-steroid years of Bonds, Sosa, & McGwire,.... Judge climbs to 10th
Joe Morgan+ ....(32) 0.865 1976
Willie McCovey+ (31) 0.865 1969
Carl Yastrzemski+(27) 0.864 1967
Jeff Bagwell+ ...(26) 0.858 1994
Larry Walker+ ...(30) 0.857 1997
George Brett+ ...(27) 0.856 1980
Mike Trout ......(26) 0.854 2018
Bryce Harper ....(22) 0.854 2015
Henry Aaron+ ....(37) 0.852 1971
Aaron Judge ......(30) 0.851 2022
Who does it ? Who checks its ? And for those areas like defense where discretion is required (who gets the most credit for that putout?) how is consistency maintained ?
1 out, runners 1st and 2nd.
Liner over the head of Bryce Harper, who figures it'll fall in and starts for third.
George Springer catches the ball, and as Harper reverses course, throws it in to Cavan Biggio, who stretches like a 1B into the OF to make the play.
Springer's 6th OF assist of the year.
In the 8th, Kyle Schwarber hits a neck-high fastball for season #40, his personal high so far, with 2 on.
Jays 14 Phils 10
It's like the 1993 World Series all over again!
I'm pretty sure it's just a fairly simple PHP script that automatically plugs the values into the database.
Sean just pushes a button every morning at 7am.
13 runs scored in this game in the last inning and a half.
Phillies send out catcher Garrett Stubbs to pitch (his 4th time to the mound this year,) after supposedly real pitcher Brad Hand gives up 4 runs in 1/3
Stubbs gets an out, then pitches to Danny Jansen. He lobs in an eephus pitch at 42, then maybe 38, then maybe 37.
Dan Shulman: "Don't smile. Just don't smile if you are the batter. It's a no-win situation for the batter. And you wait for it, but you just can't wait that long!"
{Pulled foul, pulled foul}
Pat Tabler: "Just don't swing and miss."
Stubbs suddenly throws one 84 at the knees, and Jansen can only flail, and smile as he walks off and looks back.
Shulman {laughing} "ohhhhhh, that is not fair!"
Judge (1/4) - .316
Bogaerts (0/2) - .315
Arraez (0/4) - .314
He'd officially have a 60 homer Triple Crown if the season ended today.
Edit: Other than Cabrera, of course, has anyone held a Triple Crown this late in the season since Yaz?
he was in AL for Ruth's 1927 and 60 HR, but as part of his 39-96 record with the hapless Red Sox (I am not kidding).
he joined the Yankees in 1930 and went 231-124 for them from age 25-41 (was in military for two years of WW II)
contrast that with the Braves, who had a 3-1 lead in the 9th against the Nats, and had the rotting corpse of Kenley Jansen gasping and wheezing while allowing one run and finally ending it with the bases loaded.
one of these is not like the other....
Joe Morgan+ ....(32) 0.865 1976
Willie McCovey+ (31) 0.865 1969
Carl Yastrzemski+(27) 0.864 1967
Jeff Bagwell+ ...(26) 0.858 1994
Larry Walker+ ...(30) 0.857 1997
George Brett+ ...(27) 0.856 1980
Mike Trout ......(26) 0.854 2018
Bryce Harper ....(22) 0.854 2015
Henry Aaron+ ....(37) 0.852 1971
Aaron Judge ......(30) 0.851 2022
If you start breaking it down by late inning clutch hits in the context of a pennant race for the ages, Judge would probably trail only Yaz's 1967. With the exception of Brett's 1980 and Morgan's 1976, where their teams breezed to the division title, the others were all in years where their clubs were also-rans.
You do realize it's actually very easy to write a program that can parse the live play by play data from game day and convert it to raw numbers and enter it into a database. I can write a python script that can read the pbp data and convert it to a box score, or selectively create my own stat or update a database. It's actually not that tough to do.
Depending on where they are getting the data from, you basically read the play by play and parse it into a database and then calculate the numbers, with 15 games a day and less than 100 events per game you are talking a few seconds of computational power. It's all automatic from the data that is already being produced.
Yet the Braves continue to win. The Red Sox won in 2018 with the rotting corpse of Kimbrel as the "closer". He made every game in the playoffs that year in which he appeared turn into a white knuckle ride.
I do fear though, that Jansen will cost them a game or 2 somewhere and that'll be the end of them.
Or things like hard hit/line drive etc? Does game day store all that ?
And finally who is doing all that work at game day? Is that MLB or their statistical service ?
All of that data is recorded either game day, customized pbp sheets, statcast etc. It's literally just a bunch of data that is recorded as the plays happen and their software then parses the data into useful bits.
As to who, statcast is pretty much automated. Gameday is a streamer, a person who enters the data as it happens, paid for by mlb but hired by the home stadium (I'm pretty sure at least one or two of the people who frequent this site have been streamers in the past) Basically for today's games it's easy enough to get data, and I'm sure sites like bb-ref pay a premium for even better data access than simply parsing game day and statcast data. But yes MLB does pay to collect the data with streamers and statcast.
It's really just programming a script to make the data useful. The raw data is produced live and is available to anyone who wants it within seconds(or maybe minutes) of the action. That includes Pitchfx data, statcast data, and gameday events. The skills is not gathering the data, it's turning it to useful stuff. War is a straight forward formula, each component is also a straight forward formula, all of which just needs data entered into it, and refreshed. Defensive data is calculated live just as much as offensive data and just needs to be plugged into the formulas that they are using.
Glad to see I'm not the only one feeling this way. Offense, who needs stinking offense.
NYM 95-55
ATL 93-55, 1 back with 14 to play
STL 87-61, 7 back with 14 to play
if the Cards go 14-0..... ah, I got nothing
How is data checked and confirmed.? I noticed a few months ago that FG had a different total hits number than bbref.
To the extent some info is subjective (defensive credits for instance), how does MLB ensure the streamers decisions are consistent ?
Final question is MLB has its own data correct ? (Elias?). So is their info available anywhere ?
Can't answer it, but apparently there is some system in place as you'll see on fantasy leagues changes pop up. (On my yahoo fantasy league I'll get updates that say "on this date an error was charged and it was updated to a hit"... so I'm assuming there is some system in place for updating data and correcting it.
From my original understanding there is none. With the addition of statcast though subjective data has been mostly removed from the equation. Ultimately the subjective data of the recent past wasn't more about whether something was a line drive or a fly ball, relatively minor in the overall scheme.
Yes for a fee.
Only way for the Cardinals to have been in the race was if they continued to play like they did for the previous 45 or so days since the all star break. They don't look like they are planning to do that. They are struggling to win games and score runs. The Cardinals are not doing their part to make it interesting.
better than the play-by-play guy, who - with the Braves down 3-2 and 1 out in the 9th - said they'd have an update on the Mets game "after WE beat the Nats." ugh.
meanwhile the Mets TV channel stuffed their on-field announcer Steve Gelbs into the Polish sausage costume for the 5-way mid-game race, and an impressive finishing got Gelbs - er, the Polish sausage - the victory by chasing down the front-running chorizo.
also, the Mets decided that a bases-loaded, 2-out spot with them trailing 2-0 in the 7th was a fine time to give Drew Smith his first mound appearance in 60 days. An unimpressed Mike Brosseau smacked a pinch-hit grand slam to put a bow on this one. that was weird.
Showalter asked for the ball.
The news that the Giants DFA'd Lewis Brinson and called up Vosler just hit an hour ago.
Jokes aside, I must admit the quest for the triple crown has me more excited than whether he ends up on 63, 64 or whatever homers.
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