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201. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 03, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6098828)
Yeah, I'd find his career much more impressive if it had ended in 2015. To me, his decline phase is almost worst case. I might have had him ahead of Gehrig in 2015, but to me, he's now played himself back a full rung in the rankings.
I generally ignore negative seasons, even though I do double dip into using the cumulative numbers for the career. I know it's a double standard, but I prefer to look for the good and not the bad. Just like I feel about quality starts, once you make it to through the sixth inning and qualify, you shouldn't lose the stat because you allow a 4th run in the 7th. Same with ranking players, once you past someone in the rankings, you can't do anything to drop below them.
I'm not 100% sure I have Pujols ahead of Gehrig to be honest, to me they were so close, this last season might actually be the difference maker.
202. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 03, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6098964)
Albert with 703, 2 more rbi to take sole possession of second all time.
Through 6 inning, 1 BB is the only blemish on Luis Severino’s record @ Texas.1-0 NYY. The lead would likely be larger if not for the 5 Texas double plays.
EDIT: Now 6 double plays, through 6 innings. The record is 7, so there are currently three historic milestones in play in this game. Someone have a parlay bet on that?
Severino now through 7 innings.
204. TomH
Posted: October 03, 2022 at 08:55 PM (#6098972)
5 (6!) DPs in 6 (7!) innings? That is hard to beat!
205. The Duke
Posted: October 03, 2022 at 08:59 PM (#6098973)
Pujols will finish
4th in HR
2nd in RBIs
10th in hits
12th in runs
53rd in OPS
Severino, who is still making his way back from a lat injury, is out after 7 innings, 94 pitches. Miguel Castro, back from the IL today, attempted to continue the quest for history, but gave up a single to his second batter, a .190 hitter, just over IKF’s leap.
Caratini comes up to bat with the Brewers' season on the line down 4-2 with two outs, hits a line drive to Walker and he muffed it. Both runs scored. Brewers live on for another inning.
Severino wound up with an 85 Game Score and looked sharp from beginning to end. Given his and Cortes's recent performances and Cole's season longhome run habit,** I'm kind of wondering why Boone's still stuck on Cole starting game one of the DS.
How on earth are the Mets gonna play two today in this slop? And what's the over-under for fans in attendance for the first game? 750?
222. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6099030)
I'll be at one of the games today, NYY at TEX this afternoon. At one point in September I assumed there would be no chance I could see Aaron Judge hit #62. And of course the way he's been hitting the past two weeks, it still seems minimal :( But what the heck. I get to drink beer on a Tuesday afternoon.
223. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6099032)
I just read the MLB postseason questions, and it's actually very entertaining, at first it's the usual stuff you would expect for a primer about the post season, but eventually the article develops a personality and is a fun read.
224. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6099039)
Judge leads off with a groundout & now I've got to sit through a couple of innings till he comes up again.
225. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6099040)
At least I brought a book, Against the Wall, a Finnish detective novel by Jarkko Sipilä.
Let’s keep an eye out for BDC - should be easy to spot, the guy with a beer in his hand.
MLB Network is carrying this game - picking up the YES telecast - and will carry the 2nd game of the doubleheader IF Judge doesn’t get #62 in Game 1. Even if he gets #62, his next HR would be a new record, which might be worth covering, IMHO.
227. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 02:55 PM (#6099049)
Judge PA #2: lazy fly out to right.
Several thousand fans have video of that fly ball on their phones ...
228. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 03:28 PM (#6099052)
Judge pops out to first base, we are seeing a whole range of judicial outcomes today.
229. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 03:35 PM (#6099053)
I got to see Adolis Garcia's 100th RBI! Two-run line-drive homer to LF.
230. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:13 PM (#6099054)
Judge singles, people are booing :)
But it's tied 4-4 in the eighth, he may get another at-bat ...
231. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:20 PM (#6099055)
Boone has the runners bunted over to second & third ... Yankee fans near me: "Hey, we WANT a tie, stupid! Now we have to root for the Rangers to score!"
232. The Duke
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:25 PM (#6099056)
I was wrong about the pennant chase. There's palpable tension to see whether the Padres / Phillies can lose more to get the 6th seed which is far more desirable than the 5th seed. Another great idea from MLB on creating year end excitement
233. Walt Davis
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:35 PM (#6099059)
I got to see Adolis Garcia's 100th RBI!
I saw Keith Moreland's 100th RBI. We gave him a nice standing ovation (not much else to cheer that season). As we sat down I said to my friend "now trade his ass!" The Cubs did not listen.
234. Walt Davis
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:38 PM (#6099060)
Is this even legal? The Rangers are 14-34 in 1-run games this year. How do you do that? Is that the worst ever? They have 10 more pythag wins which also must be way up there. They are 52-59 in >1-run games which is respectable.
235. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6099062)
Higashioka works a walk to get Judge a fifth PA ... and Judge forces him at second. Thousands of fans leave in the middle of the ninth of a one-run game ...
236. Walt Davis
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 05:00 PM (#6099066)
More exciting Rangers trivia from an outsider:
The bloom has come off the Heim rose: 174/276/291 since the break. Still a 96 OPS+ on the year.
We are probably at the end of Kole Calhoun's perfectly solid career. 14 career WAR, -2 WAA which is basically all due to this year's -1.4 WAR and 69 OPS+. He was replacement-level last year and turning 35 so other than an NRI, this is probably it.
Aaron Judge is the most over-rated 61-HR hitter in history! :-) (which is to say he made an out)
Looks like Martin Perez will finish on 196.1 IP ... surprisingly Bieber has hit 200 exactly.
DRS loves Semien's defense and has him at 5.6 WAR; Seager is at 4 WAR. A long way to go but that's a solid start.
The Foibles of FIP ... 4 Rangers relievers, ERA then FIP
Burke 1.78 3.12
Moore 2.00 3.01
Santana 5.37 3.41
Martin 4.14 3.63
All told that's a 3.08 ERA, 3.25 FIP which is close at at the aggregate level, especially since they've been charged with a whopping 20 UER (probably some are Manfred Men).
237. JJ1986
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6099070)
Jeff McNeil now leads the majors in batting average.
I hope Judge gets his record. Even more I hope he gets the triple crown. But what I'm really excited about are Oswaldo and Oswald, two 5-tool players who can both be starters next year and can be valuable in this year's postseason if Boone takes advantage of them.
I saw Maris hit 61 in 1961, but Judge was much better on large screen HDTV.
247. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 08:12 PM (#6099093)
And Walt, you probably know more about the Rangers as an outsider than I do as an inattentive local. Those two top relievers, Burke and Moore, with much better ERA than FIP, are just names to me. I'm sure I've seen them but I don't sense they've played much of a role in helping the team all that much. Maybe they haven't been deployed well (that awful one-run-game record) or maybe that 1-run-game thing is just luck.
Texas is only six games better than last year, though they have two more to play and try to make it 7 or 8. Eyeballing their WAR totals, a couple of starters were about the same as last year (Lowe and Garcia); they did well as you say with Semien (6) and Seager (4) and Heim too (2) did OK. But they lost Gallo (4) and IKF (4); and a guy named Andy Ibañez (2), who was supposed to take over 3B this year when Josh Jung got injured, did nothing and went back to AAA for most of the season. Basically, signing a 4-WAR shortstop while losing a 4-WAR shortstop is not a quick way to rebuild, certainly not at 10x the salary. The catcher they traded IKF for, Mitch Garver, was promising but continued his unfortunate injury history here in Texas.
Pitching was bad both this year and last, Martin Perez (5) replacing Kyle Gibson (3) as the good veteran retread de l'an and not quite so many total disasters this year, but no great improvement relative to the league as a whole. FA starter Jon Gray ($15M) was good for 1 WAR.
They have a long way to go, considering that Perez is unlikely to have another year like that in him, and any decent relievers are likely to be ephemeral.
NB: Gallo and Gibson were of course not good this year, though IKF (3 WAR) was OK for New York. In listing those guys as losses, it doesn't matter much whether they went elsewhere or just declined; the Rangers didn't improve on their loss by much, is my analysis.
248. BDC
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 08:13 PM (#6099094)
And congratulations to Aaron Judge! I can at least say I saw him play on the day he hit it.
I can at least say I saw him play on the day he hit it.
"The 'day', you say, Mister 'BDC', if that's your real name? Just answer yes or no. What time did the sun set over Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas?"
251. Walt Davis
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 08:40 PM (#6099100)
Those two top relievers, Burke and Moore, with much better ERA than FIP, are just names to me.
They're just names to me too ... conveniently located on the Rangers' b-r page. :-) I saw the 1-run record factoid on the broadcast, thought "that can't be right" so checked it out. From there, nothing but scrolling for fun and profit!!
252. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 09:01 PM (#6099104)
Third stringers tie the game up at 7 each in the Cardinal Pirate game, Arenado had the day off, Pujols and Goldy have been pulled.
253. AndrewJ
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 09:05 PM (#6099105)
Am I the only person to notice — or even care — that Roger Angell wrote his first baseball essay for The New Yorker in March 1962, a few months after Maris hit #61… and he died in May 2022, a few months before Aaron Judge hit #62?
254. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 09:55 PM (#6099108)
You know, if you can avoid walking people in the ninth inning of a tie game, your chances of seeing the tenth gets much better.
255. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6099111)
256. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6099112)
Cardinals scored, now if they can stop the powerhouse Pittsburgh from scoring.
I explained the phantom runner to my wife (got married last Wednesday---needed to make sure she could pull the plug if my surgery yesterday didn't go well) and she said (and I quote) "That is stupid."
Verlander deciding he really wants another Cy. Through 5, no hits, 10K..a real nice outing and is pulled as there is really nothing to play for other then the W.
How many games behind were the Braves at one stage?
The Mets have had a great season, it's quite unreal that they played so well and still couldn't take the East. I'm sure last year's Dodgers could sympathise....
259. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 10:32 PM (#6099116)
Cardinals managed to eke out a win.
260. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 04, 2022 at 10:32 PM (#6099117)
Congratulations cfb, glad things worked out for you.
262. sanny manguillen
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 12:16 AM (#6099128)
I think the Pirates have clinched bottom three draft lottery position with the Nats and A's. The Reds could tie at 62-100, but the Pirates have the tiebreaker (worse 2021 record)?
263. Mike A
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 12:30 AM (#6099129)
How many games behind were the Braves at one stage?
10.5, which makes this the 3rd largest division comeback ever (tied with the 1979 Reds over the Astros). 1951 Dodgers blew a 13 game lead to the Giants, the 1995 Angels coughed up an 11 game lead to the Mariners.
What's crazy is the Mets played at a 96-win pace since that 10.5 game lead (64-44). It's not like they fell apart. The Braves just played at a ridiculous 113-win pace (77-33, same as the Dodgers).
264. Addie Joss
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 01:58 AM (#6099134)
I believe the 1978 Yankees were 14 1/2 games behind the Red Sox in August.
Remember when people were discussing whether the Reds could lose 120 games this season? Now they have a good chance of avoiding 100 losses. lol
The Reds have had a horseshoe-shaped season. They had that abysmal 3-18 April, but September was only a little better at 9-19. May and July were actually winning months.
Does the NL MVP get decided today? Arenado and Goldschmidt are incredibly close, separated by 0.1 WAR under either system. If one goes 4 for 4 that could be determinative.
All playoff spots and seeding decided... full Grapefruit League schedule today.
When was the last final day of the regular season with no meaningful games?
270. The Duke
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6099183)
It's really not close between Goldschmidt and Arenado. The huge disparity in dWAR won't sway voters. Goldy has had a far superior offensive season which is what counts.
271. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6099188)
I know that I am not a fan of this stat, and that it's not a mainstream stat for the most part, but Goldy's massive wpa advantage does tell the story that we as fans have witness for the season. I get that offense isn't the only way to make an impact in the game, but it's measurable more than defensive stats so Goldy is going to win this over Arenado. Although I'm waiting for a wpa/statcast combo version stat that includes defense. If that happened, the sheer number of excellently timed defensive plays in crucial situations might push Arenado ahead of Goldy.
I am not sure why exactly this is, but Arenado has better leverage splits than Goldschmidt even though he is well below in WPA. Arenado's high/med/low leverage OPS: 988/891/840. Goldschmidt: 895/964/1022. Arenado's high leverage advantage is kind of amazing considering his overall OPS is 90 points lower than Goldschmidt.
I like to use leverage as an MVP tiebreaker, but here it just seems confusing given the WPA difference.
Stephen Vogt gets the start in the A's season finale, nice pregame moment at home plate with the also-retiring Kurt Suzuki.
Both good guys with decades of coaching ahead of them, if they want it.
274. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6099226)
I like to use leverage as an MVP tiebreaker, but here it just seems confusing given the WPA difference.
Not sure how much it affects everything, but Arenado has 9 gidp in high leverage vs 4 for Goldy (in roughly same number of plate appearances) and I think that a big part of the difference between the two here is their gidp, Goldy 7, Arenado 15.
275. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6099231)
speaking of gidp Arenado just participated/started his 42nd double play of the season, setting a franchise record. (this is on the defensive side)
276. Walt Davis
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:06 PM (#6099232)
Oddly enough, Goldy's 2 biggest games (not PAs) in terms of WPA were Cards' losses. Three other big ones were 14-5, 8-4 and 9-1 wins. Three of his worst four were Cards' wins. Arenado has more big games but looks like a few more bad games. (getting docked nearly .2 wins for a PH appearance seems harsh.) So it would seem Goldschmidt just had a lot more games where he made small positive contributions (all those low/med scenarios).
All told, Arenado's "bad" (-.1 or worse) add up to about -2.8 losses; his good (+.2 or better) add up to about 3.9. For Goldschmidt those numbers are about -2.0 and +3.1. So that all about evens out.
In WPA terms, I suppose driving in, say, 4 runs in the first 5 innings frequently pretty much cinches the game for your side (adds .3 wins say) while the situation is mid-leverage. That may be an advantage to WPA that I hadn't really considered before -- while it seems to vastly over-reward closers, it may do a good job of picking up those batters that turn medium-leverage games into low-leverage games in the 5th inning.
I’m only getting the Rangers feed on Extra Innings today, which has Tom Grieve doing his last broadcast after 50+ years as a player, executive & broadcaster. Lots of BITD reminiscing, while noting some things weren’t actually so good then. Good stuff.
278. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:09 PM (#6099234)
Cardinal announcers do not like this homeplate ump. He called a ball on Knizner that was at the bottom of the strike zone, but with it's movement more than likely was above knee high when it crossed the plate, it's about the third or fourth ball that this ump has called a ball that was probably a real strike.
279. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6099235)
it may do a good job of picking up those batters that turn medium-leverage games into low-leverage games in the 5th inning.
I like that point. It would make me like wpa a bit more than I normally feel about it. Mind you, as always, all stats have different values, and when used correctly they have value, but my hatred of WPA centered on the fact that it got overrated for a short period of time (I still can remember that kid at the sabr convention standing up and saying that WPA is the end all stat--paraphrasing him, but it was at a time when I was one of the few vocal people thinking the stat had quickly become overrated)
Was listening to yesterday's Effectively Wild and they talked about the usual playoff teams but didn't include the Braves in it. They called the Dodgers, Yankees, Cards, and Astros the usual suspects, but not the Braves. They later mentioned them as defending champs.
It seems strange, but it doesn't really feel like the Braves get considered one of the playoff sure things like those other teams. Maybe they're just so taken for granted or they bomb out enough that it doesn't even register, but they've made 22 of the last 31 playoffs and won the division 20 times in that span. Only the Yankees have made the playoffs more since 1991 (24).
As a braves fan, it didn't really register until the other day how spoiled I've been. It always feels like the other shoe is going to drop and the season is 1 play aware from disaster. I literally left the room and stopped watching game 6 of the world series after they gave up a run because it was too stressful thanks to that Folty inning 4 years ago against the Cards.
281. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6099237)
I don't remember Libertore hitting mid and high 90's as much as he's doing today. I know he can hit it, but he's been pretty consistent on that high speed.
O'Neil Cruz is tall, that ball boy that handed the ump the ball looked to be nearly as tall as him. (had to be camera angle)
282. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:19 PM (#6099238)
Quickly the game is tied by the Pirates. Cruz is just reall fast. Scores from first on a double and he was jogging half the way.
283. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:30 PM (#6099240)
5-3 now Pirates, Cardinals just have forgotten how to hold onto a lead apparently this week.
284. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:41 PM (#6099241)
Not sure I agree with the Cardinals decision, Tyler O'Neil not on the post season roster, instead Deluzio. Yes he has the defense but not anywhere the potential offense of O'Neil, and it's not like O'Neil is a bad cf backup option.
The post season roster is going to be a mess for the Cardinals. Three game series means smaller pitching staff of course, but nobody other than Dickerson has done crap in September to earn a spot on the roster. Every other non-starter has struggled. But it looks like Yepez, Deluzio, have the final spots.
Vogt scores on a sac fly, A's up 1-0 in the 5th.
Lefty Ken Waldichuk suddenly cruising, Ks Trout and Ohtani.
286. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:53 PM (#6099243)
Just because I'm thinking about it, and it's a game thread and nobody is really talking. For my team, assuming that they go with 10 pitchers for the three game series, what is the roster that they pick?
DH Pujols, 1b Goldy 2b Donovan SS Edman 3b Arenado C Molina, C Knizner OF Carlson OF Dickerson OF Yepez OF Nootbar... those are the locks. Deluzio probably gets in because of his defense, (that is 12 players)... this is where I'm going to put in different players than what the Cardinals are going to do. I absolutely put Gorman in, and do not play Dejong(I think the Cardinals make the opposite decision)
287. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:57 PM (#6099245)
Fan vote for the Clemente award is beyond idiotic.
288. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:59 PM (#6099246)
As a former military, these ads that mlb.com has been running for todays military is pretty effective for the mindset that they are trying to recruit, as a 50 year old adult though, I find them a bit manipulative. I both like and hate this ad campaign.
289. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 06:11 PM (#6099248)
Cardinals absolutely don't care one bit about this game, just bringing in the veterans for one at bat (Yadier now, and I assume Pujols next inning or so)
A's got a key DP after a quick triple and single in the 8th... but then Trout hit one that only stayed in this solar system because it bounced off the moon, 3-2 A's.
292. Hombre Brotani
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 06:32 PM (#6099252)
Mike Trout just hit his 40th. He's the sixth player to hit 40 homers in 120 games or fewer.
293. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 06:40 PM (#6099253)
Edman with a 3 for 4 day, double and a quality defensive play, he might finish the season with a 6.5 bWar.
I remember earlier in the season someone took offense with someone saying Edman is a 4-5 war player... and you look at his numbers and he's a 5+ war player by bRef throughout his career. If Betts is an 8 war player, then Edman is absolutely a 5+ war player.
294. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 06:41 PM (#6099254)
but then Trout hit one that only stayed in this solar system because it bounced off the moon, 3-2 A's.
Brewers bullpen stays on brand giving up 3 runs in ninth and Crew loses 4-2
For an 86-76 season the last 3.5 months were not much fun
Did win a bet on Tellez hitting 35 homers which he managed in his last at bat of the season. Dude will have to shave off his ugly beard so his wife is crazy happy. He offered money last week to forget the bet but I said no way. Ride or die.
Thanks Rowdy!!
296. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 07:08 PM (#6099261)
That was Mike Trout's 350th career homerun. (Talking about milestones in a few years, he might be chasing 400 in two years and maybe even 500 in 4 years.)
297. Walt Davis
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 07:26 PM (#6099262)
The Reds losing #100 in style .. 15-2 Cubs. Franmil Reyes (presumably) ends his season on a high with a HR in the 8th.
298. Walt Davis
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 07:39 PM (#6099263)
Somebody mentioned the Reds taking all the fun out of it by not losing 120. Anyway, sure, in hindsight that horrible start also happened to be a very tough part of the schedule -- Atl, LAD, SDP, StL, Cle, Milw ... their only break was a Rox series but even that was in Coors. They went 28-49 against good teams -- not bad given that start -- but then just 34-50 against the bad teams. They got crushed in the division -- 28-48, 8-11 against the Cubs being their best. They were a bit under 400 at the break and a smidgen under 400 after.
They were a bad baseball team that played horribly for one month and pretty well for a couple of months. Their only good position player (Tyler Stephenson) got hurt and almost all of the other competent players got traded. The next couple of years don't look too promising but Greene and Lodolo have some star power and hopefully Stephenson gets healthy.
299. AndrewJ
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 08:02 PM (#6099267)
Hell of an “off” year for Mike Trout — 40 homers despite missing a quarter of the season, 6+ WAR and an OPS+ well over 170. Obviously I’m worried about his ability to stay healthy for 150 games a year, and his base running speed has declined (fewer triples and steals), but his overall skills haven’t diminished all that much. Assuming he doesn’t completely tank like the 2013-20 Pujols he’ll still rival Mantle, Mays and Charleston as the greatest centerfielder ever.
300. cardsfanboy
Posted: October 05, 2022 at 08:04 PM (#6099268)
Albert's regular season career is over, and regardless of what people said about him early in his career, it didn't matter how old he was when he started, he still put up offensive numbers for the ages.
Games 3080 5th
hits 3384 9th
HR 703 4th
RBI 2218 2nd
Extrabase hits 1405 3rd
totalbases 6211 2nd
go ahead hr 263 1st
pitchers hr against 458 1st
add in the gidp record and probably another half dozen counting stats (runs scored 12th, doubles 5th, runs created 8th, sac flies 3rd, assists as 1b 7th, double plays as firstbaseman 8th, total zone runs as a first baseman 3rd, and others probably)
He didn't get playing time because he was thought to be younger than he actually was, and it's now harder than ever to believe that he's 3 years older than his listed age.
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I generally ignore negative seasons, even though I do double dip into using the cumulative numbers for the career. I know it's a double standard, but I prefer to look for the good and not the bad. Just like I feel about quality starts, once you make it to through the sixth inning and qualify, you shouldn't lose the stat because you allow a 4th run in the 7th. Same with ranking players, once you past someone in the rankings, you can't do anything to drop below them.
I'm not 100% sure I have Pujols ahead of Gehrig to be honest, to me they were so close, this last season might actually be the difference maker.
EDIT: Now 6 double plays, through 6 innings. The record is 7, so there are currently three historic milestones in play in this game. Someone have a parlay bet on that?
Severino now through 7 innings.
4th in HR
2nd in RBIs
10th in hits
12th in runs
53rd in OPS
Not bad.
EDIT: Stanton hits #30 to left-center, a mere 457 feet. 3-0.
Walk, walk, walk and one more walk for the walk-off win.
** Including 8 home runs over his last 4 starts
I think half of them were generically named Hispanic relievers.
The Cardinals spent $2.5mil and so far have got 1.9 WAR.....
I have $324,000,000 reasons why...
MLB Network is carrying this game - picking up the YES telecast - and will carry the 2nd game of the doubleheader IF Judge doesn’t get #62 in Game 1. Even if he gets #62, his next HR would be a new record, which might be worth covering, IMHO.
Several thousand fans have video of that fly ball on their phones ...
But it's tied 4-4 in the eighth, he may get another at-bat ...
I saw Keith Moreland's 100th RBI. We gave him a nice standing ovation (not much else to cheer that season). As we sat down I said to my friend "now trade his ass!" The Cubs did not listen.
The bloom has come off the Heim rose: 174/276/291 since the break. Still a 96 OPS+ on the year.
We are probably at the end of Kole Calhoun's perfectly solid career. 14 career WAR, -2 WAA which is basically all due to this year's -1.4 WAR and 69 OPS+. He was replacement-level last year and turning 35 so other than an NRI, this is probably it.
Aaron Judge is the most over-rated 61-HR hitter in history! :-) (which is to say he made an out)
Looks like Martin Perez will finish on 196.1 IP ... surprisingly Bieber has hit 200 exactly.
DRS loves Semien's defense and has him at 5.6 WAR; Seager is at 4 WAR. A long way to go but that's a solid start.
The Foibles of FIP ... 4 Rangers relievers, ERA then FIP
Burke 1.78 3.12
Moore 2.00 3.01
Santana 5.37 3.41
Martin 4.14 3.63
All told that's a 3.08 ERA, 3.25 FIP which is close at at the aggregate level, especially since they've been charged with a whopping 20 UER (probably some are Manfred Men).
Of course, it completely fails as they don't score with 2nd and 3rd and one out. Sigh.
Yes – a great favorite of mine. A little uneven, but some of them are outstanding, particularly Faceless Killers, the first one.
I saw Maris hit 61 in 1961, but Judge was much better on large screen HDTV.
Texas is only six games better than last year, though they have two more to play and try to make it 7 or 8. Eyeballing their WAR totals, a couple of starters were about the same as last year (Lowe and Garcia); they did well as you say with Semien (6) and Seager (4) and Heim too (2) did OK. But they lost Gallo (4) and IKF (4); and a guy named Andy Ibañez (2), who was supposed to take over 3B this year when Josh Jung got injured, did nothing and went back to AAA for most of the season. Basically, signing a 4-WAR shortstop while losing a 4-WAR shortstop is not a quick way to rebuild, certainly not at 10x the salary. The catcher they traded IKF for, Mitch Garver, was promising but continued his unfortunate injury history here in Texas.
Pitching was bad both this year and last, Martin Perez (5) replacing Kyle Gibson (3) as the good veteran retread de l'an and not quite so many total disasters this year, but no great improvement relative to the league as a whole. FA starter Jon Gray ($15M) was good for 1 WAR.
They have a long way to go, considering that Perez is unlikely to have another year like that in him, and any decent relievers are likely to be ephemeral.
NB: Gallo and Gibson were of course not good this year, though IKF (3 WAR) was OK for New York. In listing those guys as losses, it doesn't matter much whether they went elsewhere or just declined; the Rangers didn't improve on their loss by much, is my analysis.
"The 'day', you say, Mister 'BDC', if that's your real name? Just answer yes or no. What time did the sun set over Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas?"
They're just names to me too ... conveniently located on the Rangers' b-r page. :-) I saw the 1-run record factoid on the broadcast, thought "that can't be right" so checked it out. From there, nothing but scrolling for fun and profit!!
I explained the phantom runner to my wife (got married last Wednesday---needed to make sure she could pull the plug if my surgery yesterday didn't go well) and she said (and I quote) "That is stupid."
The Mets have had a great season, it's quite unreal that they played so well and still couldn't take the East. I'm sure last year's Dodgers could sympathise....
What's crazy is the Mets played at a 96-win pace since that 10.5 game lead (64-44). It's not like they fell apart. The Braves just played at a ridiculous 113-win pace (77-33, same as the Dodgers).
Remember when people were discussing whether the Reds could lose 120 games this season? Now they have a good chance of avoiding 100 losses. lol
The Reds have had a horseshoe-shaped season. They had that abysmal 3-18 April, but September was only a little better at 9-19. May and July were actually winning months.
When was the last final day of the regular season with no meaningful games?
I like to use leverage as an MVP tiebreaker, but here it just seems confusing given the WPA difference.
Stephen Vogt gets the start in the A's season finale, nice pregame moment at home plate with the also-retiring Kurt Suzuki.
Both good guys with decades of coaching ahead of them, if they want it.
Not sure how much it affects everything, but Arenado has 9 gidp in high leverage vs 4 for Goldy (in roughly same number of plate appearances) and I think that a big part of the difference between the two here is their gidp, Goldy 7, Arenado 15.
All told, Arenado's "bad" (-.1 or worse) add up to about -2.8 losses; his good (+.2 or better) add up to about 3.9. For Goldschmidt those numbers are about -2.0 and +3.1. So that all about evens out.
In WPA terms, I suppose driving in, say, 4 runs in the first 5 innings frequently pretty much cinches the game for your side (adds .3 wins say) while the situation is mid-leverage. That may be an advantage to WPA that I hadn't really considered before -- while it seems to vastly over-reward closers, it may do a good job of picking up those batters that turn medium-leverage games into low-leverage games in the 5th inning.
I like that point. It would make me like wpa a bit more than I normally feel about it. Mind you, as always, all stats have different values, and when used correctly they have value, but my hatred of WPA centered on the fact that it got overrated for a short period of time (I still can remember that kid at the sabr convention standing up and saying that WPA is the end all stat--paraphrasing him, but it was at a time when I was one of the few vocal people thinking the stat had quickly become overrated)
It seems strange, but it doesn't really feel like the Braves get considered one of the playoff sure things like those other teams. Maybe they're just so taken for granted or they bomb out enough that it doesn't even register, but they've made 22 of the last 31 playoffs and won the division 20 times in that span. Only the Yankees have made the playoffs more since 1991 (24).
As a braves fan, it didn't really register until the other day how spoiled I've been. It always feels like the other shoe is going to drop and the season is 1 play aware from disaster. I literally left the room and stopped watching game 6 of the world series after they gave up a run because it was too stressful thanks to that Folty inning 4 years ago against the Cards.
O'Neil Cruz is tall, that ball boy that handed the ump the ball looked to be nearly as tall as him. (had to be camera angle)
The post season roster is going to be a mess for the Cardinals. Three game series means smaller pitching staff of course, but nobody other than Dickerson has done crap in September to earn a spot on the roster. Every other non-starter has struggled. But it looks like Yepez, Deluzio, have the final spots.
Lefty Ken Waldichuk suddenly cruising, Ks Trout and Ohtani.
DH Pujols, 1b Goldy 2b Donovan SS Edman 3b Arenado C Molina, C Knizner OF Carlson OF Dickerson OF Yepez OF Nootbar... those are the locks. Deluzio probably gets in because of his defense, (that is 12 players)... this is where I'm going to put in different players than what the Cardinals are going to do. I absolutely put Gorman in, and do not play Dejong(I think the Cardinals make the opposite decision)
I remember earlier in the season someone took offense with someone saying Edman is a 4-5 war player... and you look at his numbers and he's a 5+ war player by bRef throughout his career. If Betts is an 8 war player, then Edman is absolutely a 5+ war player.
I love that description.
For an 86-76 season the last 3.5 months were not much fun
Did win a bet on Tellez hitting 35 homers which he managed in his last at bat of the season. Dude will have to shave off his ugly beard so his wife is crazy happy. He offered money last week to forget the bet but I said no way. Ride or die.
Thanks Rowdy!!
They were a bad baseball team that played horribly for one month and pretty well for a couple of months. Their only good position player (Tyler Stephenson) got hurt and almost all of the other competent players got traded. The next couple of years don't look too promising but Greene and Lodolo have some star power and hopefully Stephenson gets healthy.
Games 3080 5th
hits 3384 9th
HR 703 4th
RBI 2218 2nd
Extrabase hits 1405 3rd
totalbases 6211 2nd
go ahead hr 263 1st
pitchers hr against 458 1st
add in the gidp record and probably another half dozen counting stats (runs scored 12th, doubles 5th, runs created 8th, sac flies 3rd, assists as 1b 7th, double plays as firstbaseman 8th, total zone runs as a first baseman 3rd, and others probably)
He didn't get playing time because he was thought to be younger than he actually was, and it's now harder than ever to believe that he's 3 years older than his listed age.
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