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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, August 12, 2021Orioles’ Chris Davis announces retirement
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: August 12, 2021 at 11:05 AM | 37 comment(s)
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1. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 12, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#6034043)MLBTR cites Heyman saying Davis will be paid the $23M owed for next season.
@BNightengale
·
1h
Chris Davis will still be fully paid for his seven-year, $161 million deal with the #Orioles, even after retirement. The only difference is that next year's salary will be deferred and paid over the next three years.
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
1h
Chris Davis' hip simply was not going to allow him to continue playing. He already had $6 million deferred from his salary next year, and now will defer the entire $17 million through the next three years.
He gave the Orioles a bit of a break in exchange for retiring, in that they get some time-value-of-money relief.
The Howard extension, and the Cabrera extension have to be close.
hiptalent simply was not going to allow him to continue playing.I think the worst has to be something that was obviously, monumentally stupid at the time it was signed. Like Howard, who was signed two years before free agency and paid like a superstar despite by that point being merely above average, trending downward, and sure to age poorly. Or Dreifort, who was mediocre and injury-riddled but got a star contract for reasons no one can discern.
The Davis contract was likely to be bad on the back end, but there wasn't reason to believe he'd be sub-replacement for practically the entire length of it.
In the extension Howard put up -4.8 WAR, -11.5 WAA. Davis totalled -2.6 WAR, -9.9 WAA. Hard to say Howard was better.
Davis at least had one good season (3.1 WAR in 2016). Howard "peaked" at 0.5 WAR during the extension.
That still doesn't fully explain it.
Yea, I'd argue that if you were able to get someone to take a contract off your hands, it's not even in the running to be worst-ever. No one was ever going to trade for Davis. Or Howard for that matter.
Davis really didn’t terribly impact the Orioles
Boy, do they ever!
only 2 more after this year. and then 2 options where he has to come in the top 10 in MVP voting the previous year for them to vest. Now, it would be hilarious if some of the AL award voters gave him MVP votes and he ended up in the top 10, but, I doubt that is happening.
Dreifort had 670 IP, 97 ERA+, a FIP a bit better than his ERA and was turning 29.
The main risk was he had already been boom or bust as a player. And why was he getting 7 years and who were the O's bidding against? Still, two boom years and maybe an average year out of 7 and the contract moves close to meh territory. Zero boom years, not so much.
Don't mind incorporating a "sheer stupidity" factor in "worst contract" though. But "dumb and too pricey" is still not as bad as the Miggy extension -- a huge, unnecessary risk. I do wish we had some way to genuinely know what other offers were on the table. I guess that's one advantage of ranking the Miggy and Howard extensions so high -- we know they were bidding against nobody except hypothetical future offers. It's hard to believe anybody was close to this offer for Davis but we don't know. Maybe Davis will write a memoir.
I've watched The Original Series of Star Trek several times, and I survived!
Here’s a place to start, maybe someone has better eyes than I do.
https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/blogpen/archives/P17400
I'll never understand why you were so down on Wheeler. I recall you saying something like the Phils had fallen in love with the radar gun readings. But in the 2 seasons prior to his contract, he had a 3.37 FIP (12th in MLB), a 3.65 ERA (20th), and 377.2 IP (12th). All that added up to him being worth 8.9 FWAR (10th) and 8.1 BWAR (?). That's a really good pitcher, an ace on most staffs. And it's not like his contract was near the top of the market. Cole got $324 mil, Strasburg $245 mil. His $118 mil. contract fit very well with his more traditional stats, no need to worry about spin rates, movement, or velocity.
On Davis, I assume someone must have come up with this theory at some point, but I seem to recall the O's coming under a lot of criticism for not spending before this contract. Did they intentionally sign one bad, big money, long-term deal so that they could say, "Hey we tried that, and it didn't work out"?
Quickly turns into famous people primates have interacted with.
I think there was no disagreement with the idea that he wasn't objectively worth what he was looking for (and eventually signed for close to what he was looking for) and that doesn't make for a very interesting discussion.
There was one objection -- that we didn't know the structure of the contract and might feature a lot of deferred money.
The procedure in 35 sounds legitimate. You also might try normalizing by the highest salary in the game in a particular year.
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