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Friday, July 08, 2022

Orioles rally in ninth, beat Angels, 5-4, on Trey Mancini’s walk-off single for sixth straight victory

The first time they chanted his name, the hyped-up crowd of nearly 28,000 filling Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the first time since April, the letdown had been felt with a groan and the slam of a bat.

But with two outs in the ninth inning, as the fans rose to their feet and the pressure rose with them, catcher Adley Rutschman came to the plate and wasn’t rattled. He didn’t look like a 24-year-old rookie in front of the largest crowd he’s ever played for in Baltimore. The elevated fastball, the sixth pitch of the at-bat, leapt off his bat and split the right-center gap for a run-scoring double, giving the Orioles — and their fans — a breath of life.

Cedric Mullins took that breath and turned it into the game-tying single, sending Rutschman home from second. And that breath turned into a triumphant one when Trey Mancini sent a drive over the left fielder’s head to secure a come-from-behind 5-4 victory.


Mancini rounded first, spiked his helmet and was met by hugs and the kind of noise that hasn’t been heard at Camden Yards all season — or in years, for that matter. Down to their last out, the Orioles strung together four straight hits, beginning with Rougned Odor and continuing with Rutschman, Mullins and Mancini.

The madness of it all gave Baltimore a season-high six-game winning streak, creeping them closer to an American League wild-card spot no one in or out of the organization had targeted this season.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 08, 2022 at 11:35 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: orioles

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   1. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: July 09, 2022 at 12:05 AM (#6086059)
The. Angels. Suck.
   2. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 09, 2022 at 12:29 AM (#6086061)
Moreno should be forced to sell the team after this loss.
   3. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 09, 2022 at 01:47 AM (#6086066)
Orioles and Tigers are the two hottest teams in baseball!
   4. shoelesjoe Posted: July 09, 2022 at 01:52 AM (#6086067)
Down 4-2 in the 9th, two outs nobody on base, and the .205 batting Rougned Odor at the plate with two strikes on him. What’s the win expectancy in that situation? But four straight two-strike hits turned the stats on their head. The Orioles are now three games below .500, and at this point have a winning record against their non-Yankee opponents. The 2022 Wild Card is still a long shot, but one can dream of how good the 2023 team will be with the addition of Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, etc.
   5. jingoist Posted: July 09, 2022 at 11:05 AM (#6086075)
I watched that game and the excitement and suspense was palpable.
While I was thrilled for the O’s, I truly felt bad for the Angels, especially Trout.
Trout will have wasted the best part of his career playing for a team of underachievers that find a way every year to squander any possible edge they might enjoy.
   6. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 09, 2022 at 12:11 PM (#6086077)
I feel for Trout, but nobody put a gun to his head and forced him to sign that extension. Same with Ohtani, who could've signed with any number of more competitive teams that regularly go to the postseason.

   7. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: July 09, 2022 at 12:31 PM (#6086078)
It's good to see the Orioles playing well, as that is a team and a town that has suffered a lot for a long time, and it was/is a great baseball town. Good to hear Jim Palmer on the broadcasts with something to be happy about.

It is my hope that by next year perhaps the Angels will have or start to turn things around. They have some of the pieces already. It would be a good thing for baseball.

In the old days someone like Steinbrenner would come to the Angels with an offer they couldn't refuse and "rescue" Trout. Don't see that happenning.
   8. AndrewJ Posted: July 09, 2022 at 01:31 PM (#6086080)
Down 4-2 in the 9th, two outs nobody on base, and the .205 batting Rougned Odor at the plate with two strikes on him. What’s the win expectancy in that situation?

According to BB-Ref.com, the O's had a 2% win expectancy when Odor stepped in the batter's box; what it was with the two-strike count, I have no idea. By comparison, the Mets' win expectancy for Game 6 of the 1986 World Series was 1% after Hernandez flied to center for the second out in the 10th.
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 09, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6086082)
Trout will have wasted the best part of his career playing for a team of underachievers that find a way every year to squander any possible edge they might enjoy.
Trout wasn’t totally blameless last night. In the 9th, he made an offline throw to the plate that had no chance to get the tying run, allowing the batter (the eventual winning run) to advance to 2nd. Since it’s the Angels, they probably eventually lose either way, but a throw to 2nd, or even hitting the cutoff man, would have kept the hitter from advancing to 2nd.

Of course Trout’s positives vastly outweigh the occasional miscue, but I was a bit surprised when I saw the play on the highlights.
   10. donlock Posted: July 09, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6086083)
Feel bad for Mike Trout. The Orioles used to have a ss who led the team to a WS in-his 2nd year, 1983. The Orioles and this ss, who played 20 years, never made it back. For him or since 1983.
   11. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: July 09, 2022 at 03:29 PM (#6086086)
I don't know who the best comparison to Mike Trout is, of a great player on generally very bad teams, that never or hardly ever made the postseason.

Some thoughts:

Mike Trout: 80 WAR and counting, 1 LDS loss when he was 22
Ernie Banks 68 WAR, no postseasons
Ted Williams, 122 WAR, 1 WS loss when he was 27
Willie McCovey, 65 WAR, 1 WS loss when he was 24 and one LDS loss when he was 33

Who else?


   12. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 09, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6086088)
Who else?


Nap Lajoie. 76 WAR in the WS era. 0 pennants.

Ty Cobb. 151 WAR, 3 pennants (none after age 22), 0 championships.

Griffey 85 WAR, 3 LDS, one LCS

Luke Appling. 77 WAR, 0 pennants

   13. Walt Davis Posted: July 09, 2022 at 04:20 PM (#6086091)
As #10 notes, Ripken made the WS at age 22 and never again. His O's made the playoffs again at ages 35 and 36, losing in the ALCS both times. He hit 336/411/455 with 1 HR in the postseason.

As went Ernie, so went Santo (70 WAR). Billy Williams (64 WAR) made just the 1975 postseason with the A's at age 37, losing to the Red Sox. Fergie (82 WAR) never pitched in the postseason.

Ken Holtzman on the other hand had 12 postseason starts with an ERA of 2.30. Just 70 IP though because nobody understood 3rd-time effects in those days. :-)
   14. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: July 09, 2022 at 05:12 PM (#6086105)
Frank Thomas, 74 bWAR and 2 LDS losses and 1 LCS loss. Saddest of all was his sitting out the 2005 WS win for the Sox due to injury, after he had been the face of the franchise for so long.

Not in the same class, but Adam Dunn played 14 pretty good seasons without reaching the playoffs, and the last game of his career was watching from the bench as the A's lost the 2014 WC game.

Then there is Mark Kiger, who never appeared in a regular season game but did play in the 2006 ALCS.
   15. The Duke Posted: July 09, 2022 at 10:14 PM (#6086126)
Cards have two guys who have never seen a World Series who may end up Hall of Famers: Goldschmidt and Arenado
   16. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 10, 2022 at 08:43 AM (#6086138)
I used to think that great players who got soooo close to a championship, but never got there, were the toughest cases (think Yax, who got to a Game 7 twice in 1967 and 1975, and was the final out of the Bucky Dent 1978 playoff game). And maybe it was the greats who never even got to the World Series (like Ernie Banks).

But there are so many more playoff teams now, that being an all-timer who can't end up on teams that even make the expanded playoffs is more of a mark against your career. And the nature of baseball, with its relatively small home field advantage, and smaller winning percentage difference between the best and worst playoff teams most years (compared with football or basketball), means "making the tournament" is probably more valuable than it is in other sports.

All of this is to say: It is crazy that a team with Trout and Ohtani is so bad, and it seems inevitable that one or both of these guys are going to want to go to a contender sooner than later.
   17. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 10, 2022 at 09:14 AM (#6086139)
Ken Holtzman on the other hand had 12 postseason starts with an ERA of 2.30. Just 70 IP though because nobody understood 3rd-time effects in those days. :-)

The 1972 World Series was the first one without a single complete game, and in the 1973 World Series Darold Knowles appeared in relief in all seven games.
   18. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: July 10, 2022 at 02:45 PM (#6086143)
The 1972 World Series was the first one without a single complete game, and in the 1973 World Series Darold Knowles appeared in relief in all seven games.


The 1972 Oakland Athletics featured Rollie Fingers as perhaps the first of the modern-day relief pitchers, and the 1970's Big Red Machine was IIRC characterized by a core of excellent position players and a starting rotation held together by duct tape, so it makes sense that the 1972 World Series would be the first without a complete game.

   19. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 10, 2022 at 03:05 PM (#6086146)
I don't know whether Mike Elias was responsible for moving the fences back in Camden Yards, but if he was, he's a candidate for GM of the Year. Just look at these numbers:

Orioles' RPG / Opponents' RPG

2021 4.47 / 6.26
2022 4,20 / 3.76

That's a drop of 2.5 RPG for the Orioles' opponent in just one year. Small wonder their home record has gone from 27-54 to 24-17 (EDIT: now 25-17). And an additional benefit is that the now-distant LF wall is likely to attract more potential FA pitchers than a wall that was always surrendering home runs at a record pace.
   20. SoSH U at work Posted: July 10, 2022 at 04:38 PM (#6086156)
And an additional benefit is that the now-distant LF wall is likely to attract more potential FA pitchers than a wall that was always surrendering home runs at a record pace.


I have yet to see a FA, either hitter or pitcher, choose a FA destination based on the ballpark characteristics. I'm sure it's happened, but it's exceedingly rare.

Now, I've long preferred a pitcher's park to a hitter's palace 'cuz pitchers break, so the fewer throws your staff has to make the fewer trips to the arm docs you should see.
   21. jingoist Posted: July 11, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6086236)
Now that the Orioles have swept the Angels and have won 8 in a row, what does the BBTF community think about the O’s chances of making the extended playoffs this year?
It was nice to see a crowd of almost 30,000 Friday night (it was floppy hat give-away night); contrast that to crowds so small you can hear patron conversations during lulls in the action.
   22. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 11, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6086238)
The Angels get swept by the Orioles in a 4-game series. Congrats to the Orioles and all that, but the Angels are a travesty right now. I can't even watch their games any more. I barely have a desire to check the scores. It's painful.
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2022 at 01:57 PM (#6086240)
Now that the Orioles have swept the Angels and have won 8 in a row, what does the BBTF community think about the O’s chances of making the extended playoffs this year?
Reportedly, the Orioles still intend to be sellers at the trade deadline, so their playoff prospects may have already peaked. Perhaps the closeness of the playoff race could change that thinking, but I suspect that investing in the team isn’t a priority if it’s being sold, although one could certainly argue that a franchise that actually draws fans & makes the playoffs should be worth more.
   24. Rally Posted: July 11, 2022 at 02:27 PM (#6086243)
The Angels get swept by the Orioles in a 4-game series. Congrats to the Orioles and all that, but the Angels are a travesty right now. I can't even watch their games any more. I barely have a desire to check the scores. It's painful.


Once every 6 days they are worth watching. Otherwise, no even Trout can salvage the train wreck.
   25. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: July 11, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6086247)
Otherwise, no even Trout can salvage the train wreck.


Conceivably, the A's might just trade Blackburn, Montas, and Irvin for cash considerations. Would that help? It looks like the top-3 in their rotation are pretty good.

But, really, I don't understand it. Currently their batters are showing a cumulative 8 WAR and their pitching staff shows 7. So shouldn't they be at like, 48 wins? Their Pythagorean wins are 41, actual 38, so I guess they are underperforming versus Pythagoras and way underperforming versus WAR.

   26. Walt Davis Posted: July 11, 2022 at 06:40 PM (#6086266)
cumulative 8 WAR and their pitching staff shows 7. So shouldn't they be at like, 48 wins?

Nope, you're looking at WAR, not WAA. A replacement level team is 48 (? or is it 46?) wins on the year so would be at about 24 wins right now so the Angels wins and WAR are in close agreement.

If you look at WAA, Angel pitchers are (surprise!) 1 win above average but the position players are 2 wins below average so they "should be" on 42-43 wins right now, in line with their pythag.

Maddon 27-29; Nevin 11-20.

Looking at the roster ... not much in the way of surprises. Walsh and Marsh have been disappointing but that's countered by the surprise of Ward. I suppose Andrew Velazquez must have been projected to better than a 32 OPS+ but I doubt even Angels fans had heard of him before this year. Oh yeah, Rendon -- well, that's been going bad for a while. Nothing to complain about in the results of Ohtani, Sandoval, Noah and Detmers. The bullpen (esp Iglesias and Tepera) has been a disappointment but an extra WAR or two out of those guys ain't gonna fix anything.
   27. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: July 11, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6086272)
Nope, you're looking at WAR, not WAA.


I couldn't quite remember what replacement level was, so I used like a 40% winning percentage. So it's more like 30%? Thanks.
   28. escabeche Posted: July 13, 2022 at 10:39 AM (#6086485)
"replacement level" has been rebranded "2021 Orioles level," so yeah, a shade over 30%

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