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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

OT- Soccer Thread- October 2019

Hey, when I have to submit the thread we get a bad intro, that’s just how it works.

jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:55 PM | 844 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   501. jmurph Posted: November 19, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5902438)
Ancelotti and Allegri also being floated on twitter.
   502. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 19, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5902446)
Looks likely to be a strong win by Wales. I think they end up in Pot 4 regardless, so they will likely have to outperform expectations to advance from the group stage in the finals.

Assuming I understand the rules:

--Pot 1--
Belgium
Italy
England
Germany
Spain
Ukraine

--Pot 2--
Netherlands
France
Switzerland
Croatia
Poland
Russia

--Pot 3--
Portugal
Turkey
Denmark
Austria
Sweden
Czech Republic

--Pot 4--
Wales
Finland
Iceland/(3 of Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania)
Bosnia/Northern Ireland v Slovakia/Ireland (could have an all Ireland playoff)
Serbia/Norway v Scotland v(1 of Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania)


   503. spivey Posted: November 19, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5902447)
Allegri would be a very good hire from the little I've seen. He seems to bring much of the benefits of Mourinho, without the baggage.

This will be an interesting time to see how big of a job Tottenham truly are. If Tottenham is confident they will get one of the young up-and-comers I'm open to getting someone like Rafa as a care-taker. But there could be many teams looking for new managers this offseason (Barca, AC Milan, Juve(?), Bayern, Man U, Arsenal, Dortmund(?), PSG(?)). I'd love a manager like Allegri who could both stabilize while also have the ability to be a medium-long term fit.

I think on paper, it should be an attractive job.
   504. J. Sosa Posted: November 19, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5902453)
Allegri would be good. But remember Arsenal got Emery, a B hire. Is a big time established manager going to come knowing Levy’s reputation with a maybe one in five shot at CL next year? I have my doubts.
   505. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 19, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5902455)
I’m extremely skeptical that, after years of working for Levy, Pochettino will agree to work for Woodward at any price.

I could definitely imagine Pep moving on after the season and Poch going to City, though.
   506. J. Sosa Posted: November 19, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5902456)
I get the impression Arteta is considered the manager in waiting. Could be wrong, but Arteta has turned down some good opportunities.

As for Poch United has Woodward problems sure, but he would probably get more time than Real. Personally if I were him I would spend the next few months learning German.

edit to add: Pep will take some time off and then go work for PSG or Juve because that’s who he is.
   507. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 19, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5902459)
Turns out host cities also come into play, so much of the draw is already decided. According to ESPN:

Group possibilities

Group A
Italy
One of France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
One of Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Wales or Finland

Group B
Belgium
Russia
Denmark
Wales or Finland

Group C
Ukraine
Netherlands
One of Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winners of playoff path A, C or D

Group D
England
One of France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
One of Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winners of playoff Path C or D

Group E
Spain
One of France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
One of Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winners of playoff Path B

Group F
Germany
One of France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
One of Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winners of playoff Path A, C or D

edit: Even if France and Portugal end up in a group together (with England, Germany, or Spain), all 3 teams can advance in this 24-team format.
   508. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 19, 2019 at 05:59 PM (#5902466)
I'm open to getting someone like Rafa as a care-taker.


I'd be quite happy with Rafa; unfortunately, he's getting Chinese Super League money.

I'm sure he'd be thrilled at the chance to manage Spurs, but I very much doubt he'd move merely for the chance to manage out the season ...

Alistair Gold over at football.london sure seems to be pushing the idea that Levy loves Mourinho, though I really hope he isn't the hire.

   509. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 19, 2019 at 06:08 PM (#5902468)
   510. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 19, 2019 at 06:41 PM (#5902473)
What's really great is that Mourinho is probably going to get the OGS dead cat bounce (any manager probably will) and they'll finish 7th or 8th, and all the Spurs fans will talk themselves into getting excited about it. Because if you want a picture of a Spurs' fan's future, imagine a boot kicking a human's nuts forever.
   511. spivey Posted: November 19, 2019 at 06:50 PM (#5902477)
Poch is a legend, and the manager who made me a Tottenham fan.
   512. manchestermets Posted: November 19, 2019 at 06:58 PM (#5902479)
As for Poch United has Woodward problems sure


Also, there isn't a vacancy there. Did I mention that?
   513. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 19, 2019 at 07:27 PM (#5902481)
Mourinho is probably going to get the OGS dead cat bounce (any manager probably will) and they'll finish 7th or 8th,


Given that Spurs are 3 points from 5th, that doesn't seem too far fetched.

all the Spurs fans will talk themselves into getting excited about it


That, on the other hand, seems exceedingly doubtful to me.

   514. J. Sosa Posted: November 19, 2019 at 09:24 PM (#5902500)
Mets:

One, I didn’t say there was at the moment.

Two, OGS did that one thing that one time as a player. He is a horrendous manager. If you are part of that peculiar subset of United fans that thinks otherwise, good luck to you.
   515. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 19, 2019 at 09:29 PM (#5902501)
Bleh. I really, really dislike Jose Mourinho and I really hope he doesn't become Spurs manager.
   516. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 19, 2019 at 09:52 PM (#5902506)
He just did.

I always figured Levy would ruin the team eventually, but I didn’t imagine it would happen this abruptly or spectacularly.

Where will Kane be playing next year? Real? Bayern?
   517. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 19, 2019 at 11:58 PM (#5902517)
Still my favorite interview of the year:

“We could have easily spent more money on players. Who knows if that would have bought us more success or not.

Daniel Levy, interviewed by the Telegraph - 9/20/2019


/s
   518. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 20, 2019 at 02:05 AM (#5902522)
Spurs have confirmed the hire.

May god have mercy on our souls ...
   519. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 20, 2019 at 02:13 AM (#5902523)
RassenBallsport can be difficult to deal with.

One 's' in Rasen btw. Rasen being the word for lawn. What you just wrote is RaceBallsport. The biological kind of race, not the running kind of race. Which makes it sound like some sort of Nazi propaganda club intended to prove the superiority of the Herrenrasse.
   520. manchestermets Posted: November 20, 2019 at 03:09 AM (#5902524)
One, I didn’t say there was at the moment.


Assuming it's up to Spurs' latest zero trophy ex manager whether he takes the job or not certainly implies it. It's disrespectful to say the least

Two, OGS did that one thing that one time as a player.


I guess this is what's meant by "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing."

As for the horrendous manager bit, well, I guess I'll have to take your word for that (rather than say, writing him off on the basis of a short spell managing a club that made the Mets look like the model of being a well run sporting organisation). Oh wait, no I won't, I'll continue to pay close attention to United as I have all my life, and continue observing that the squad full of mediocrity he inherited from Spurs' new manager (talking of peculiar subsets, are you one of the ones that thinks that Fred won't be a terrible footballer, Nemanja Matic will suddenly be ten years younger and it will turn out that the squad is full of world class midfielders who Solskjaer has unaccountably been ignoring if Pochettino takes over?) is clearly being improved, in a definite way with a definite plan that has improved noticeably in recent weeks when the club's best attacker has returned from injury and he's no longer had to play its second best attacker out of position as a consequence. He has to be allowed to continue that plan. Nothing is going to be achieved by ripping it up and replacing it with Pochettino having a go for 18 months until the next ripping up when there isn't an instant transformation.
   521. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 20, 2019 at 07:27 AM (#5902529)
I will note that I thought Mourinho would consider Spurs to be too "small" a club for him to manage, so I guess that's an indication of their current status.

That or no one else wants Mourinho anymore.
   522. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 20, 2019 at 08:27 AM (#5902533)
I don't understand the hire at all. The current Spurs squad is definitely better than the United squad that Mourinho inherited, but he's going to want to spend money and there is no way Levy is going to give him that money.
   523. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 20, 2019 at 08:42 AM (#5902536)
It can be two things!

Spurs have risen and Mourinho's reputation has fallen (as well as the fact he's running out of clubs he could conceivably manage at).

I am ... not happy with yesterday's events.

Short term? Well, short term this could work out, Spurs are very likely out of the running for CL spots, but solidly in the chase for EL, so ... yay?

But medium/long term, I think this will prove very costly for Spurs and end badly, because that's how things end with Mourinho. If Levy isn't already planning who is going to manage Spurs next, he's in for a rude shock.

Oddly enough, I think this is a sign of insecurity on Levy's part, thinking that signing Mourinho validates the stature of Spurs. Alastair Gold (as I referenced above) wrote that Levy's been wanting Moanin' Mo for years.

Well, now he's got him; Mo doesn't change the roster, though, or loosen Levy's purse.

(Oh and The Daily Fail is reporting that Bayern is sniffing around Troy Parrott ... yay!)

   524. Mefisto Posted: November 20, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5902568)
I genuinely feel sorry for Spurs fans. Mourinho is Billy Martin: a terrible human being who can get good short-term results but is ultimately destructive.
   525. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 20, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5902608)
One thing we can be certain of is that Mourinho will have no use for Troy Parrott. He’ll sell him to the highest bidder ASAP to help finance the overpriced veteran defenders he wants.
   526. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 20, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5902638)
Ivanovic is still playing.
   527. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 20, 2019 at 07:24 PM (#5902811)
Trying to look for positives even though I really dislike Mourinho...one of the problems for Spurs this season is that they keep dropping points from winning positions. Presumably, given his history, Mourinho can fix that.
   528. puck Posted: November 20, 2019 at 10:59 PM (#5902853)
Unbelievable. Canada player makes a "deliberate trick" to play the ball to his head to then pass to the keeper, inside the 6-yard box. That's so stupid and it's in the FIFA rules. Never seen it before.


That wasn't just "Canada player," that was their generational player Alphonso Davies, a 19 yr old now with Bayern Munich. He was upset at the call and had no idea. Guess he is still rough around the edges.
   529. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 20, 2019 at 11:58 PM (#5902860)
I think the managerial change will help Spurs, dead cat bounce and all. There’s a lot of season left and Chelsea and Leicester have their flaws. They can still land a CL spot. Mourinho is kind of a Billy Martin type at this point. In a short term he can turn things around.
   530. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 21, 2019 at 12:37 AM (#5902864)
't just "Canada player," that was their generational player Alphonso Davies
Heh. I had no idea it was Davies who did that. Sometimes when you are so much better than everyone else, there's less pressure to learn the rules.

By the way, "deliberate trick" is the language in the rules:

• uses a deliberate trick while the ball is in play to pass the ball to his own goalkeeper with his head, chest, knee, etc. in order to circumvent the Law, irrespective of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not. The offence is committed by the player in attempting to circumvent both the letter and the spirit of Law 12 and play is restarted with an indirect free kick.

   531. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5902888)
uses a deliberate trick while the ball is in play to pass the ball to his own goalkeeper with his head, chest, knee, etc. in order to circumvent the Law, irrespective of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not. The offence is committed by the player in attempting to circumvent both the letter and the spirit of Law 12 and play is restarted with an indirect free kick.

I had absolutely no idea the "irrespective of whether the goalkeeper touches the ball with his hands or not" was a rule. Huh.
   532. frannyzoo Posted: November 21, 2019 at 07:46 PM (#5903067)
I jumped off the Spurs bandwagon some time ago, yet also find the change dully upsetting. The good news, on the other hand, is that another horrible/horrible/horrible international break is over and Atalanta hosts Juventus Saturday morning. The Bergamo bunch has been going through a tough patch, and their CL experience has proven a shambles, but much could be improved by a win over Evil Inc. along with Zapata's return (Viva!).
   533. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 23, 2019 at 10:53 AM (#5903397)
Tough loss for Atalanta against the Ronaldo-less Juve.
   534. spivey Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5903400)
Atalanta really let that match get away from them at the end. It will be interesting to see where VAR draws the line on how far back in a goal scoring move they’ll give a hand ball. There was a clear handball on Juve on their second goal, but a lot of play happened after it.
   535. spivey Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5903402)
It’s been a while since Tottenham had a dominant xG win in the EPL, especially on the road. Will be interesting to see how the midfield shakes out. Was nice to see Moura get a bit more run.
   536. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5903404)
Gladbach falls to non-fancied Union Berlin. Not a fluke win, either. Especially with Dortmund's draw, the Bundesliga title race is still realistically limited to one team, unless you want to give Leipzig a half chance.
   537. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:33 AM (#5903407)
Always wondered how systems that don't count penalties in xG still justify counting penalty rebound shots. Anyway, xG on that penalty rebound for Southampton must have been very high.
   538. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:45 AM (#5903410)
Would xG on the penalty rebound be higher or lower than the xG on the Socrates turnover about ten minutes earlier.

This game has been gripping to watch. Both teams are just flying in.
   539. frannyzoo Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:47 AM (#5903412)
That Atalanta goal was pretty, and if you've followed the team this year you could predict the rest would not be. Lockdown defense is, of course, not in Gasperini's tool kit, but things could have gone at least a bit better. Juve, death, and taxes all in all.
   540. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5903413)
Union are a team not to be trifled with at home. They have an amazing crowd and they’ve also beaten Dortmund and Freiburg at home.
   541. frannyzoo Posted: November 23, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5903415)
Poch definitely has plenty of job opportunities in the EPL. Going to Gunners isn't happening, but would be funny as Hell if it did.
   542. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2019 at 12:01 PM (#5903417)
Would xG on the penalty rebound be higher or lower than the xG on the Socrates turnover about ten minutes earlier.
Did they even get a shot off after that Sokratis error? The pass that should have been an assist was abominable.
   543. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5903448)
What we're seeing is that a lot of these offside calls are ridiculously close. One possibility is that they could be required to use lines that are 4 inches (or whatever) wide, and if any part of one line touches the other, it's not given as offside. That would give 4 inches of leeway to the offense.

I think any "effective" tie (however defined) should go to the offense, especially considering how inexact the VAR art is.

   544. frannyzoo Posted: November 23, 2019 at 05:32 PM (#5903481)
Watching NZ/England test cricket reminds me to pass along the utterly civil way review works in that sport. Complete transparency of ARS (VAR) official as he (I think it's only guys doing it to this point, unfortunately) goes through the video looks with technology assist. Considering ARS is, at heart, projection of where the ball would go, there is admittedly more conjecture but it's far, far, far, far better than VAR because of the transparency.
   545. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 23, 2019 at 08:27 PM (#5903495)
543 - the line should be thicker than that. A professional footballer in sprint can cover a fair amount of ground per frame. At 15 mph that’s 22 feet per second so if you have the defender going one way and the forward another that’s an effective 44 feet in a second. That’s 9 inches at 60frames per second and that may be slow since it assumes we can identify the precise moment the ball comes off the foot. To me the line should be over a foot wide.
   546. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 23, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5903496)
I mean fix the math to be better than a guy on his third mojito sitting in his boxer shorts but it seems like the lines should be about a foot wide to me. I suspect my 15 mph is light particularly for a guy like Sterling.
   547. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2019 at 10:32 PM (#5903506)
543 - the line should be thicker than that. A professional footballer in sprint can cover a fair amount of ground per frame. At 15 mph that’s 22 feet per second so if you have the defender going one way and the forward another that’s an effective 44 feet in a second. That’s 9 inches at 60frames per second and that may be slow since it assumes we can identify the precise moment the ball comes off the foot. To me the line should be over a foot wide.
Yeah this did the circuit a while back. I don't buy it for most plays. Apparently in the EPL they are using 50 fps this year (broadcast frame rate), but the cameras themselves are much higher fps (up to 500 fps apparently), so they could use a higher frame rate if they got their #### together. Even at 50 fps, it's rare that offside plays are decided by players moving more than a few mph at different speeds, and they are almost never running near top speed in exactly opposite directions passing each other at the critical moment. I wouldn't build a system around such an unusual circumstance.

Also, you can't really have it both ways--either the frame rate is too slow and the ball has come too far off the foot in the first frame it is off the foot (which accounts for the lag), or it's too fast and you can't tell which frame is the one where the ball comes off the foot. The only way that wouldn't be true is if the ball was going at almost the exact speed of the foot, which is not very reasonable. The ball has to be moving much faster than the players in most cases, so there are several inches between most frames for ball speed.

At 10 mph for player movement differential, which should cover 99% of marginal offside calls, the difference is only 3.5 inches per frame at 50 fps.

A bigger problem with the rule for me is that, now that we are trying to be so precise about it, it doesn't make sense to use any portion of the body that can play the ball. I would just use any part of the torso, including the outside of the shoulders and possibly the head. This would cut down on inconsistency of VAR official measurement, and no linesman was ever doing anything differently anyway prior to VAR. Also, there is no good reason why, when two players are running side by side down the field, they can be offside or not by the placement of their leg within the stride. That makes no sense at all.

Players are also almost certainly judging whether they are timing their run correctly by an the approximate position of an opponent's torso shape. They are not looking down at their feet, for example, and shouldn't be expected to. Might as well call the rule the same way.

So in summary, if they just choose body parts that are easy to consistently mark on camera (like outside of torso rather than armpit), and they expand the error bars to something reasonable, then VAR would be a lot better. At this point I would still dump it though. Or I would just not allow the VAR refs to draw lines at all--if it's too close to call the way it used to be played on replay for the fans, let the call on the field stand or give it to the offense. Whether a play is on or offside by an inch is essentially purely a matter of luck (much more so than a ball that's in or out in tennis by an inch, for example), so it's just not interesting to me.
   548. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 23, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5903507)
I come back to my replay catch all, if you can’t decide in 30 seconds the call stands. We need to fix the “good lord the ref is on the take” calls not the “oh my goodness, he was a millimeter offsides” calls.
   549. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 24, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5903547)
I come back to my replay catch all, if you can’t decide in 30 seconds the call stands.


At real-time speed.
   550. Mefisto Posted: November 24, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5903556)
Richard must be in heaven about now.
   551. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 24, 2019 at 01:15 PM (#5903558)
Sheffield United was excellent in the first half, and Manchester United god awful. Announcers wanted to blame Manchester United's defense, but aside from Phil Jones, who was terrible, they didn't play that badly. The midfield, on the other hand, was atrocious. Perreira, Fred and James were unbelievably bad, contributing nothing going forward and giving the ball away over and over again to put pressure on Manchester United's defense. Sheffield United's players were passing circles around them as well. James did redeem himself a bit in the second half, contributing to one or two of the goals. But their midfield is really just not up to par, especially without Pogba.
   552. manchestermets Posted: November 24, 2019 at 01:28 PM (#5903560)
When McTominay and Pogba are injured, they have literally zero competent midfielders. Fred is terrible, James and Perreira aren't really centre mids but there was nobody else to put there. Matic is presumably still injured - it was apparent;y 50-50 whether he'd be available today - but I doubt he'd have made much difference, he isn't capable any more. They need to buy two midfielders urgently.

VAR covering itself in glory again. I'm not really bitter about that goal being allowed, because the sensible thing to do would be not to have any review, and just get on with the game but if you're going to stand around for two minutes, you should give the decision that is obviously the right one - the ball clearly came off his arm - rather than standing around for two minutes and then flipping a coin.
   553. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 24, 2019 at 01:34 PM (#5903561)
Final stats were surprisingly close, considering how dominant Sheffield United was in the first half.

Per understat, first half xG was 1.30-0.04! Second half was 0.26-1.29. Almost a total reversal, and almost all of that for Manchester United came after the 74th minute. A bit ironic that Sheffield United got two goals in the second half and only one in the first.

538 didn't have it quite as close: 1.8-1.4 in favor of Sheffield United.
   554. Richard Posted: November 24, 2019 at 02:58 PM (#5903567)
I was at the game. Aside from a 7 minute spell, it was fantastic. We really deserved the point.

I have been going since 1978 and I have rarely, if ever, seen the Blades play as well as they did in the first half.
   555. jmurph Posted: November 25, 2019 at 10:05 AM (#5903673)
VAR covering itself in glory again. I'm not really bitter about that goal being allowed, because the sensible thing to do would be not to have any review, and just get on with the game but if you're going to stand around for two minutes, you should give the decision that is obviously the right one - the ball clearly came off his arm - rather than standing around for two minutes and then flipping a coin.

I expected you to complain about the 1st goal, in which Mousset absolutely bulldozes Phil Jones to the ground to win the ball and then ultimately make the key pass. The referees and commentators and presumably most fans will ludicrously call that a 50-50 shoulder to shoulder challenge, which is of course nonsense, it was an obvious foul. As far as I could tell there wasn't even a review, or at least not a detailed one.
   556. spivey Posted: November 25, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5903675)
FWIW, I didn't have an issue with VAR confirming Sheffield's 3rd goal. I didn't think it was definitive either way. The camera angles weren't great imo and I thought the camera was pretty grainy, I wouldn't have been comfortable saying definitively that hit his arm rather than shoulder.

I do think if Man U could get a good 6 and a good 8, they'd be a pretty good team straight away. There are goal scoring inconsistencies with the front line, but I'd like to see each of them with a functioning midfield that gives them service.
   557. Mefisto Posted: November 25, 2019 at 11:06 AM (#5903702)
Those are absolutely Man United's biggest needs (they were big and obvious during the summer also). But they also need depth. After all, if your 8 gets injured or sick it won't help much if the backup is still Fred or Pereira.
   558. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 25, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5903708)
Cagliari dropping points against Lecce in a wild finish featuring 3 red cards (2 for Cagliari 1 for Lecce), a penalty in the 83rd, and an equalizer in the 90th. As well as 8 minutes of extra time in which Lecce almost took all 3. Juve/Inter obviously a two team race for 1st but Roma pulls into a tie for 4th (they trail due to goal differential). Two points behind Lazio in 3rd.
   559. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 25, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5903742)
The thing is - Fred and Pereira have been better recently. I still don't think they're good enough even as backups, but the brief good spell might convince management otherwise.
   560. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 25, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5903755)
The thing is - Fred and Pereira have been better recently. I still don't think they're good enough even as backups, but the brief good spell might convince management otherwise.
They were worse than ever yesterday. It would have taken a second half of the purest brilliance (which they didn't provide) to make up for their abject first half display.
   561. manchestermets Posted: November 25, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5903772)
Fred has been playing marginally better than the very low level he reverted to yesterday. He's still been constantly giving the ball away. Pereira has been playing better, but he's been playing more as a 10, where he's been adequate if not exactly who you want playing there. He'd be a fine squad player, but should never be a first choice. He's no use at all as a central midfielder.

That Williams now seems to be ahead of Young in the pecking order at left back is a huge bonus. Shaw should be back soon, so it will be interesting to see what happens there then.
   562. spivey Posted: November 25, 2019 at 02:43 PM (#5903798)
Fred's passing is so, so bad. He is a decent carrier of the ball when I've watched, but his passing is both sloppy/dangerous, as well as just poor when in the final 3rd, which stagnates attack.

He reminds me of Sissoko, but without the physicality, and Sissoko seems to be more aware of his shortcomings in terms of passing range.
   563. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 25, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5903815)
It helps if you put the wall in the right place. Villa just made a pretty free kick around the outside of it (to the near post), but I'm pretty sure that's not supposed to happen.
   564. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 25, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5903820)
The three worst teams by underlying performance so far this year are almost certainly Norwich, Newcastle, and West Ham. Watford isn't been that far behind.

Southampton and especially Palace haven't been good either, but they have each now played very hard schedules, in both cases all of the (preseason expected, and probably currently expected) top 9 teams.
   565. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 25, 2019 at 03:51 PM (#5903821)
Two goals on set pieces has Villa in front 2-0 at half.
   566. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 25, 2019 at 08:53 PM (#5903902)
G. Hunter writes on ESPN that the La Liga teams are struggling in the CL this year. Maybe they are a tad, but really no more than was expected coming in. La Liga is second fiddle to the EPL right now, but that was yesterday's news.

Betting odds had on average just over 3 of the 4 La Liga teams advancing, with 2 winning the group. Current odds, amazingly, have each team to qualify at about exactly the same as they were coming in, but now just slightly higher (Valencia and Real Madrid). On the other hand, they are now more likely to end up with only 1 top seed rather than 2, but that's hardly an example of major struggling. The league as a whole is also up very slightly in ELO since the group stage started. If there is a crisis here for La Liga, it was here prior to the group stage.

Most likely if Valencia sneaks in to the KOs (basically a 50/50 proposition right now), La Liga will have all 4 teams advance. (FWIW, they are also now even more likely than they were prior to the EL group stages to have all 3 teams advance.)

   567. spivey Posted: November 25, 2019 at 09:53 PM (#5903908)
The ESPN soccer writing is so bad.
   568. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 25, 2019 at 10:04 PM (#5903910)
The word “soccer” is superfluous in #567.
   569. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 26, 2019 at 02:58 PM (#5904069)
PSG and Real Madrid advance into round of 16 with the Brugge/Galatasaray draw.

Leverkusen wins but they still need a bit of a miracle to advance. Atletico needs to lose out vs Juventus and already eliminated Moscow and Leverkusen needs to defeat Juventus which could be plausible if Juve has nothing to play for.
   570. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 26, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5904086)
HALFTIME SCORES

Real Madrid 1
PSG 0

Red Star Belgrade 0
Bayern Munich 1

Tottenham 1
Olympiacos 2

Atalanta 1
Dinamo Zagreb 0

Manchester City 0
Shakhtar 0

Juventus 1
Atletico Mad. 0

   571. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 26, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5904099)
It's looking for all the world like Bayern Munich and Tottenham will be advancing. Lewandowski with 4 goals in the second half, and Spurs coming back from a 2 goal deficit to lead 4-2 with about 10 minutes to play.
   572. spivey Posted: November 26, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5904101)
Being a Tottenham fan is exhausting.
   573. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 26, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5904104)
Assuming City doesn't give up another goal for a shock home defeat, that Atalanta game at Shakhtar should be very entertaining.
   574. spivey Posted: November 26, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5904106)
Atalanta/Shakhtar will be very interesting regardless imo (edit: oh, misread that - yeah, I guess if City lose today, nevermind). Naturally I won't get to see it because they'll show some meaningless #### like Tottenham/Bayern instead and I'm going to spend $3 for a single game that I only semi-watch at work.
   575. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 26, 2019 at 04:57 PM (#5904108)
So if Atalanta defeats Shakhtar and City defeats Zagreb (or draw) then it's City and Atalanta. Very interesting indeed. All three teams with a shot to advance in that group.

Juve did take care of Atletico, who still has a win and in situation vs Moscow. If they don't defeat Moscow, Leverkusen can advance with a victory over Juve who has 1st place locked up.

Bayern and Tottenham advance. Red Star and Olympiacos eliminated.

Can't wait for tomorrow.
   576. frannyzoo Posted: November 26, 2019 at 07:58 PM (#5904125)
I'd love Atalanta to win at Shaktar, and it would be helpful that "we" have Brescia and Verona in the run up to Shaktar, but beating the small fries has not been a strong suit. At least today at the San Siro (and why the San Siro, I dunno, it's stupid) gives something to look forward to. I'm still guessing Europa at best, while not being in Europa might, of course, even be better in the long run (i.e., CL next year).
   577. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 26, 2019 at 08:41 PM (#5904131)
Being a Tottenham fan is exhausting.


You ain't seen nothin' yet!
   578. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 10:25 AM (#5904184)
Group E

Liverpool 9
Napoli 8
Salzburg 4
Genk 1

Today it's Liverpool/Napoli and Salzburg/Genk.

Group F

Barca 8
Dortmund 7
Inter 4
Prague 2

Barca/Dortmund and Inter/Prague.

Group G

Leipzig 9
Lyon 7
Zenit 4
Benfica 3

Zenit/Lyon and Leipzig/Benfica

Group H

Ajax 7
Chelsea 7*
Valencia 7*
Lille 1

*Chelsea and Valencia also tied in goal differential.

Chelsea/Valencia and Ajax/Lille


Should be a pretty awesome day :)
   579. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 12:02 PM (#5904202)
The Valencia/Chelsea game is huge.

Liverpool really wants a win today. Even a draw today could leave them needing a result in Salzburg, which would be far from a given.
   580. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 12:22 PM (#5904205)
Barcelona despite being ahead of the group is by no means a lock. They've struggled to score lately and Dortmund and Inter are not cupcakes. Granted they probably only have to win one of the two, but still. It seems like Valverde has no idea what to do with Griezeman. Their whole offense lately has been set pieces or let's hope Messi does something extraordinary.
   581. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 12:51 PM (#5904208)
Barcelona only needs a draw against Inter to advance, even if they lose to Dortmund, which itself is unlikely. There's even a small chance they could lose both games and still advance. They really aren't in any danger right now.

edit: betting odds has them at 91+% to advance, which is higher than they were at the start of group play.
   582. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5904210)
Barcelona only needs a draw against Inter to advance, even if they lose to Dortmund, which itself is unlikely. There's even a small chance they could lose both games and still advance. They really aren't in any danger right now.


Ohh ok, my bad. Thank you for the clarification. I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped points against Dortmund today but they are favorites at home. Just their play has been relatively uninspiring for the past month.
   583. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5904222)
So many good chances both ways. I guess this is the story of Chelsea's season so far though.

If Valencia loses they will surely be kicking themselves.

edit: actually at least in the EPL Chelsea has had a good record not giving up much xG anyway.
edit2: in the CL as well before today. Only 3.0 xGA in 4 games.
   584. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5904223)
Kepa's save on the penalty was pretty awesome.
   585. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:38 PM (#5904224)
This Chelsea/Valencia match is pretty intense, and seems pretty even.
   586. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5904225)
This game is incredible. Valencia equalizes in the 82'
   587. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5904227)
Zenit 2, Lyon 0. Those two teams are tied for 2nd spot in their group. Zenit will be playing Benfica and Lyon will play Leipzig.
   588. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5904228)
How can Chelsea give up so many chances in one game. Especially with one minute left when a draw is a good result for them.
   589. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5904229)
This game is so ####### stretched right now, fullbacks are not tracking and there are ridiculous chances both ways.
   590. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5904230)
Chelsea is playing like a young team, chasing a winner that would be nice for them, but that they don't need.
   591. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:55 PM (#5904231)
Chelsea just needs a win at home against Lille to advance. A draw (or even a loss) could potentially do it too, if they get a little (or a lot of) help.
   592. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5904232)
So I'm admittedly a newbie. If Chelsea and Valencia end up with identical points, doesn't Valencia have the tiebreaker due to head to head competition? Or is that wrong?
   593. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5904233)
So I'm admittedly a newbie. If Chelsea and Valencia end up with identical points, doesn't Valencia have the tiebreaker due to head to head competition? Or is that wrong?


Pretty sure, yes. I think Tottenham advanced over Inter last year on this.
   594. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5904234)
Gotcha that's what I thought.
   595. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5904235)
If Ajax goes on to win today (likely), then Chelsea is in with a win, or in with a draw if Ajax also beats Valencia.

If Ajax wins today, Chelsea would only be able to win the group if they beat Lille and Ajax/Valencia ends in a draw.
   596. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5904238)
GOTCHA I see where I was confused. Valencia by beating Ajax would then have more points than Ajax. I see.
   597. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5904239)
It's early, but Liverpool losing today would open a pretty plausible door where they don't get out of this group.
   598. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5904240)
Barca with two quick goals making me feel a lot better about the whole situation :)
   599. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5904245)
It's early, but Liverpool losing today would open a pretty plausible door where they don't get out of this group.
No kidding. Unfortunately that's likely the case even with a Liverpool draw today, since Salzburg is up 0-2.

edit: Liverpool's prior win against Salzburg won't help them in a tiebreaking scenario, since it was 4-3 at home.
   600. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:05 PM (#5904246)
because they conceded 3 away goals? is that the tiebreak?
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