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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

OT- Soccer Thread- October 2019

Hey, when I have to submit the thread we get a bad intro, that’s just how it works.

jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:55 PM | 813 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   601. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:08 PM (#5904247)
flip
   602. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5904249)
Tiebreak would be head to head between the two teams, and each would have a win (or they wouldn't be tied), so each would have 3 points head-to-head. Next tiebreak rule is GD, and Salzburg would have to win by at least one goal to win the game, so Liverpool can't win on that. Next tiebreak rule is away goals. For Liverpool to advance by tiebreak, Salzburg would have to win by exactly one goal, and Liverpool score at least 4. Even 3 wouldn't be enough, on total group GD. So only 5-4, 6-5, 7-6, etc. would do it for Liverpool to win the tie breaker.
   603. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:20 PM (#5904250)
Gotcha thank you for the explanation! Perfect.
   604. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5904251)
Leipzig only needs a draw today at home to advance, so naturally they are down 0-2 to Benfica. That opens the door even wider in that group.
   605. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5904252)
Liverpool on the board though!
   606. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5904253)
and a Griezemann sighting in Barca.
   607. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5904254)
One more goal needed still. I didn't say it earlier, but Napoli would only need a home draw next round against lowly Genk to have tie breaker over the other two teams, if they all finish on 10 points. So a draw does almost nothing for Liverpool today. Salzburg up 0-3 now.
   608. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5904256)
edit: nvm. wrong thought.
   609. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5904259)
Leipzig only needs a draw today at home to advance, so naturally they are down 0-2 to Benfica. That opens the door even wider in that group.


Two late goals get Leipzig a draw.
   610. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5904260)
Leipzig with 2 late goals to advance! That's crazy. No luck for Liverpool--they will have to do it next week.
   611. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:00 PM (#5904261)
Ajax got another win, but in all group games they've had a lower xG than their opponents. Valencia certainly won't be favored in Amsterdam, but they have a decent chance to get the win and knock out Ajax.
   612. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5904262)
Biggest games next round are Salzburg/Liverpool, Ajax/Valencia, and Shakhtar/Atalanta. Virtually in are Atletico, Napoli, and Chelsea.

Group F (Inter and Dortmund) and G (Lyon and Zenit) are hard to call, but the teams there don't play each other.
   613. The_Ex Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5904263)
Can someone explain why Leipzig are through. If they lose to Lyon both teams will be on 10 points. If Zenit beat Benfica they will also be on ten points. Is there a three way tie breaking process?
   614. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5904264)
Played out pretty much exactly like I feared it would, and said so after game 4. Dortmund lose at Barca, and Inter win at home to Prague. And now Barca has nothing to play for in Munich, and any win puts Inter through no matter what Dortmund does. I hate being right.
   615. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:21 PM (#5904265)
Can someone explain why Leipzig are through. If they lose to Lyon both teams will be on 10 points. If Zenit beat Benfica they will also be on ten points. Is there a three way tie breaking process?
Yes. Three way head-to-head points is the first tiebreaker. Lyon 7, Leipzig 6, Zenit 4 (if they all end up with 10 points).
   616. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:23 PM (#5904266)
Dortmund lose at Barca, and Inter win at home to Prague. And now Barca has nothing to play for in Munich, and any win puts Inter through no matter what Dortmund does. I hate being right.
Indeed. But Inter almost didn't win. Looks like they only took the lead finally in the 81st minute on a breakaway where the defender slipped. Even with that freebie of a goal with very high xG, they only finished even in xG (penalties included). Of course they did have one called back and maybe that was harsh on them (didn't see it).
   617. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5904267)
I think I'm right but I make no promises.

GROUP A: PSG 1st, Real Madrid 2nd
GROUP B: Bayern 1st, Spurs 2nd

GROUP C: ManCIty 1st
Shaktar 6 points, Dinamo Moscow 5, Atalanta 4
Atalanta at Shaktar
ManCity at Moscow

Shakhtar win and they are through
Shakhtar/Atalanta draw Dinamo win, Dinamo are through
Shakhtar/Atalanta draw, Dinamo lose or draw, Shakhtar are through
Shakhtar lose to Atlanta, Dinamo lose or draw, Atalanta are through

GROUP D: Juventus 1st
Atletico Madrid 7, Bayer Leverkusen 6
Atletico v Lokomotiv Moscow
Bayer v. Juve

Atletico win, they are through
Atletico draw, Leverkusen win, Leverkusen are through
Atletico draw or lose, Leverkusen draw or lose, Atletico are through
Atletico lose, Leverkusen win, Leverkusen are through

GROUP E:
Liverpool 10,Napoli 9, RB Salzburg 7
Napoli v Genk
RB v Liverpool

Liverpool win, they are 1st, Napoli second
Liverpool draw, they and Napoli are through. Napoli win group with a win, finish second with a draw or loss
Salzburg wins, Napoli wins, Salzburg and Napoli are through (see post 602 for the exceptions already outlined)
Salzburg wins, Napoli lose or draw, Salzburg first, Liverpool second (post 602 ibid)

GROUP F: Barcelona 11
Inter Milan 7, Borussia Dortmund 7
Inter v. Barca
Dortmund v Slavia Prague

Dortmund need to better Inter's result, if they match, Inter are through

GROUP G: RB Leipzig 10
Zenit 7, Lyon 7
Benfica v Zenit
Lyon v Leipzig

Leipzig win or draw, they are through in 1st place
Zenit have tie breaker over Lyon so they just have to match Lyon (thanks Aunt Bea I had some bad math), Benfica are out.
Zenit and Lyon both win, Zenit are 1st, Leipzig 2nd (thanks again Bea!)

GROUP H:
Ajax 10, Valencia 8, Chelsea 8
Ajax v. Valencia
Chelsea v. Lille

Ajax win or draw, Chelsea lose and Ajax 1st and Valencia 2nd
Ajax win, Chelsea draw or win and Ajax 1st, Chelsea 2nd
Ajax lose, Chelsea lose, Valencia 1st, Ajax 2nd
Ajax lose, Chelsea win, Valencia 1st, Chelsea 2nd
Ajax lose, Chelsea draw, Valencia 1st, Ajax 2nd
   618. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:32 PM (#5904268)

Dortmund need to better Inter's result, if they match, Inter are through
To clarify (in case someone misreads this): Win/loss/draw only. Scoreline won't matter.
   619. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:38 PM (#5904269)
Zenit have tie breaker over Lyon so they just have to match Lyon (thanks Aunt Bea I had some bad math), Benfica are out.
Also true, but only if both teams draw or lose. If both teams win, then it's a 3-way tie with Leipzig, and Zenit is out. (If both teams lose, Zenit still gets the tiebreaker over Lyon and Benfica, which is why Benfica is already out.)
   620. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:40 PM (#5904270)
Barca had nothing to play for against Spurs on matchday 6 last year. Now the side was somewhat heavily rotated and they were at home, but it was still about 50-60% starters, and Messi got 30-35 minutes of gametime as a sub.

I don't think Barcelona will roll over, especially since their form isn't great and I think there are people fighting for gametime.
   621. KronicFatigue Posted: November 27, 2019 at 05:56 PM (#5904272)
I love when I come to this thread and the topic being discussed is the exact topic I'm interested in.

I started to think about Barca laying down and Inter getting an undeserved win in match 6. Once again, I was surprised when I looked up CL tie breakers. I don't like it. First it's head to head and then it's gd in those head to head matches. I feel like that's double counting the same matches. In other words, if two teams are tied, and team A beat team B twice, that's 6 points that went into A's bucket that didn't go in to B. B then outplayed A by 6 points in all other matches in the group to re-tie their points. Only to go back to their original setback.

This is a "group" stage, and the teams that advance should be which team performed best IN THE GROUP, not against each other. Especially in a sport where one mistake, injury, bad call can have such an impact.

It certainly feels like Dortmond has played better this CL than Inter, and feels wrong that Inter will advance if they beat Barca, a team with nothing to play for.

[not sure if anyone remembers, but a couple months ago I asked for guidance to pick an Italian team, and while I thank you for your help, I've been stressed this entire CL by their matches]
   622. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 06:10 PM (#5904274)

I started to think about Barca laying down and Inter getting an undeserved win in match 6. Once again, I was surprised when I looked up CL tie breakers. I don't like it. First it's head to head and then it's gd in those head to head matches. I feel like that's double counting the same matches. In other words, if two teams are tied, and team A beat team B twice, that's 6 points that went into A's bucket that didn't go in to B. B then outplayed A by 6 points in all other matches in the group to re-tie their points. Only to go back to their original setback.
I've always liked head-to-head in small groups, especially where, like the CL, some teams are much better than others. If you use group GD before head-to-head points, then it often comes down to how badly someone beat the group minnow, which is kind of random. I guess you could do head-to-head points, then group GD, then head-to-head GD, then group goals scored, then head-to-head away goals (a bit like head-to-head goals scored). I might be ok with that--have to think about it.

   623. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 27, 2019 at 06:13 PM (#5904276)
Prague also has nothing to play for now, so how fair would it be if Dortmund rolled them up 5-0 to win on group GD while Inter outfought Barca 2-1 at home? No system is perfect. At least head-to-head means the tiebreaker was decided in meaningful games.
   624. KronicFatigue Posted: November 27, 2019 at 06:20 PM (#5904278)
Both excellent points. GS encourages beating up the minnow, GA encourages parking the bus, total wins probably never is a factor (wins = clean advance is my guess). any other options? If not, then I guess this is the least-bad system.
   625. Mefisto Posted: November 27, 2019 at 06:38 PM (#5904280)
Looks like they only took the lead finally in the 81st minute on a breakaway where the defender slipped.


The kind of thing that makes one wonder if this casino is entirely honest.
   626. spivey Posted: November 27, 2019 at 06:57 PM (#5904281)
Dortmund dominated Barcelona at home and only got a draw. If they don’t advance, that’s why.
   627. KronicFatigue Posted: November 27, 2019 at 10:44 PM (#5904300)
This might be too cute by half, but what about this tie breaker:

When team A wins the group, and teams B and C are tied for the 2nd spot, GD for all matches between A, B, and C. Gets rid of the minnow factor.
   628. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 06:26 AM (#5904323)
To qualify odds:

Group C:
Shakhtar - 59%
Atalanta - 30%
Zagreb - 11% (b/c City barely bothered to show up at home yesterday, so who knows what they'll do in a meaningless game in Zagreb)

Group D:
Atleti - 91%
Leverkusen - 9%

Group E:
Napoli - 99%
Liverpool - 78% (being given a high chance not to lose the game)
Salzburg - 23%

Group F:
Inter - 63% (Inter is over 55% to win at home against Barca)
Dortmund - 37%

Group G:
Lyon: 53%
Zenit 47%

Group H:
Chelsea: 84% (high percentage chance to win at home. Getting through via draw is unlikely)
Ajax: 83% (high chance to win or draw. Getting through with a loss unlikely)
Valencia: 33%



   629. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 12:06 PM (#5904346)
How are the leagues doing so far in the CL, versus expectation? It's surprisingly not that different from what it was before the group stage, but the top 4 leagues have slightly outperformed.


expected # teams to advance: pre-group; current

---Top 5---- (half a team better than expected)
EPL: 3.40 -> 3.62 (up 0.22)
La Liga: 3.08 -> 3.24 (up 0.16)
Serie A: 2.69 -> 2.92 (up 0.23)
Bundesliga: 2.33 -> 2.46 (up 0.13)
Ligue 1: 1.66 -> 1.53 (down 0.13)

---others still alive--- (half a team better than expected)
Netherlands: 0.53 -> 0.83 (up 0.30)
Russia: 0.43 -> 0.47 (up 0.04)
Ukraine: 0.42 -> 0.59 (up 0.17)
Austria: 0.26 -> 0.23 (down 0.03)
Croatia: 0.07 -> 0.11 (up 0.04)

---the rest--- (one team worse than expected)
Portugal: 0.51 -> 0
Greece: 0.21 -> 0
Turkey: 0.17 -> 0
Belgium: 0.11 -> 0
Serbia: 0.08 -> 0
Czech Republic: 0.05 -> 0




   630. Baldrick Posted: November 28, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5904356)
   631. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 01:37 PM (#5904371)
Alkmaar losing at home to Partizan would be a major upset, and even more major ######. United would only need a home draw next round against Alkmaar to be group winner, but more importantly, Alkmaar would probably need to beat United to advance, with Partizan home against Astana. That won't be easy for them, especially since United will not want to lose at home to go to second in the group. Pretty sure United will take that game more seriously than the one today, where the average age of the players on the pitch was 14 or something.

Wolves taking care of business at Braga. They started a strong team and are up 1-3 after being down early. A win and they are all but assured of finishing top of the group.

Roma up 0-2 in Istanbul. A win and they are almost certain to advance.

Rangers down 1-0 at the half to Feyenoord. That's far from ideal. A 2-goal loss would be very bad, but any other 1-goal loss scoreline wouldn't be killer. What they really want is at least a draw. Porto, down 1-0 in Switzerland, continues to struggle. I think they are out with a loss today, so this is their last chance.
   632. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5904374)
Rangers with a couple headed goals to take the lead. The second was particularly nice--lots of patient passing works the ball in close, pass to the wing and one touch cross placed perfectly between two defenders for a soft touch by the forward to the back post. Just so nicely done.

Unfortunately it's already 2-2 again. Feyenoord got one back with a nice breakaway and some confident dribbling by the forward who dinked the keeper in the end.
   633. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5904375)
Two quick goals by Porto! Group just got very tight again.

And Braga has come all the way back against Wolves. Wolves would have a much tougher time winning the group if they only draw today.
   634. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 02:55 PM (#5904377)
Rangers hold on for the draw! Didn't advance yet, because Porto got the win. They just need a draw home against Young Boys to advance. Porto just needs a home win to Feyenoord to sneak through to the knockouts.

Wolves are through, though the draw means first place is now in doubt. Wolfsburg are through. Roma is virtually through. Gladbach and Getafe just need home draws to advance. Alkmaar saved themselves with 2 late goals, so they are also through. United just needs a home draw against them to finish first in the group.
   635. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 03:39 PM (#5904386)
Arsenal looking fairly strong, so the announcer says: "it's been a pretty good week for English teams in Europe." 6 games played, EPL teams favored in all of them. 1 win, 1 loss, and 4 draws. Not exactly a good showing. ELO will certainly take a hit this week.
   636. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5904394)
Arsenal totally dominated the first half but wasted good chances. Look poor in the second and now down 1-2.

Even with all this terribleness, unless Liege wins its game (currently 1-1), Arsenal is virtually assured of advancing. If Liege does win and Arsenal loses today, then we have a very exciting final round to look forward to.
   637. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 28, 2019 at 05:01 PM (#5904402)
PSV goes out after a bad loss to Sporting, who advance. LASK with the win over hapless Rosenborg (only team with 0 points), and that is that.

Dudelange out!

Lazio with a critical win, and the 1-0 scoreline works for them. They need to beat Rennes and have Celtic beat Cluj. Both could happen, but it's still 50/50, perhaps less since Celtic has nothing to play for.

Game of the day was Malmo hosting Kyiv. Each team came from behind to take the lead, and Malmo got a late winner to take it 4-3. Not the end of the road for Kyiv though, since they hold the tiebreaker over Malmo with that scoreline. All they need is a win at home against lowly Lugano to advance, because the other two teams play each other,

Of course, Arsenal lost and played very poorly in the second half. That's great news for Frankfurt, and it turns out, not that bad for Arsenal since Liege couldn't beat minnows Guimares. Arsenal would have to lose by 5 (even 4-0 wouldn't do it) on the road to Liege. Can't see that happening. First in the group is in doubt now, but they could keep it with a win at Liege.

Being group winner will matter in the next round, since the seeded teams on a whole are going to be much better than the unseeded ones.
   638. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 29, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5904454)
Emery out!

Amusing, Pochettino is leading the "Who should be the next Arsenal manager?" poll over at ESPNFC.
   639. Mefisto Posted: November 29, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5904461)
Meaning after Ljungberg?
   640. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 29, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5904462)
Sounds like Santo is the guy Arsenal wants.
   641. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 30, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5904522)
City not looking great at St James Park.
   642. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: November 30, 2019 at 09:11 AM (#5904526)
DeBruyne with a gorgeous goal and City finally breaks through 2-1.
   643. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 30, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5904527)
I don’t think a draw away at Newcastle is terrible on the face of it but the way they got there, giving up a goal pretty unnecessarily, after taking the late lead is not good.

What struck me wasn’t so much the foul itself but the fact that City simply had no one on Shelvy. I get expecting the ball to go into the box, that makes sense, but you have to have someone assigned to the player at the edge of the box ready to close him down.

Elsewhere Jurgen Klinsmann seems to be taking his form from the last round of US World Cup qualifying to Hertha Berlin. 2-0 15 minutes in.
   644. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 30, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5904530)
Thank god we have replay to eliminate that outrageous handball by Davinson.
   645. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 30, 2019 at 10:30 AM (#5904531)
I don’t think a draw away at Newcastle is terrible on the face of it
Actually it's terrible. City is probably the best team in the league, and Newcastle maybe the worst. They just can't drop points like that and expect to win the league.

understat xG: Newcastle 0.2 - 2.4 City
538 shot-xG: Newcastle 0.2 - 3.1 City
538 non-shot-xG Newcastle 0.2 - 3.5 City
   646. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 30, 2019 at 11:09 AM (#5904537)
DeBruyne's goal was just ridiculously good.
   647. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 30, 2019 at 11:40 AM (#5904539)
Klinsmann's Hertha got one back, but Dortmund went down to 10 men late in the first half, and Hertha couldn't do anything to take advantage: .2 xG the rest of the way for the loss.
   648. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 30, 2019 at 11:59 AM (#5904543)
Liverpool had to hang on after Alisson got a late red (DOGSO?) which was converted into a goal. Bright had some good chances at the end.

West Ham with the big upset at Chelsea. Fouls committed: Chelsea 0, West Ham 16. West Ham did have some quality chances though, in addition to their goal, and actually looked surprisingly cromulent. That's a major step up from how they have played so far this year. (edit: or maybe not... I didn't see the whole game, and Chelsea apparently amassed 3.0 (or 2.7) xG somehow without scoring, though most of that was in the first half.)
   649. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 30, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5904546)
I don’t think a draw away at Newcastle is terrible on the face of it

Newcastle is bad, and City should feel bad.
   650. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 30, 2019 at 12:48 PM (#5904551)
Liverpool had to hang on after Alisson got a late red (DOGSO?)


He handled outside the box. He came out to make a play and the Brighton player won the race, tried to chip him and Alisson pulled a Suarez. The ensuing free kick was a goal because Dunk was alert and Adrian was still setting up the wall when the ref blew his whistle Dunk hit a sharp grounder to the far post while Adrian was on the near side directing the wall.
   651. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 30, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5904552)
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Newcastle are world beaters or anything but they are a perfectly cromulent side and that’s the kind of away fixture that can result in dropped points with minimal difficulty. There is a reason teams don’t go 38-0-0 and I think an away match to a mid table team is a place where dropped points shouldn’t come as a shock.
   652. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 30, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5904555)
Euro 2020:

Group A: Turkey, Italy, Wales, Switzerland
Group B: Denmark, Finland, Belgium, Russia
Group C: Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria, Playoff D (Georgia, Belarus, North Macedonia, Kosovo)
Group D: England, Croatia, Playoff C, Czech Republic (Scotland, Israel, Norway, Serbia)
Group E: Spain, Sweden, Poland, Playoff B (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Slovakia, Ireland)
Group F: Playoff A, Portugal, France, Germany (Iceland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary)
   653. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: November 30, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5904560)
   654. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 30, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5904563)
Newcastle is not playing like a midtable team this year. They have the worst xGD in the league, and recently were expected to achieve the second least number of points over the remainder of the season, ahead of only Norwich. They aren't the least good, or even near average.

edit: currently by betting odds 4th most likely to be relegated, only ahead of Norwich and the two teams playing now, all of which have way fewer points banked.
   655. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 30, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5904567)
Bayern with so many chances but looks like they are going to lose again, this time at home.
   656. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 30, 2019 at 02:29 PM (#5904569)
Geez, those are some of the most lopsided groups I think I have ever seen.
   657. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 30, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5904573)
Geez, those are some of the most lopsided groups I think I have ever seen.
16 of 24 teams advance, so it might not matter that much. Still ridiculous of course.
   658. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 01, 2019 at 05:01 AM (#5904672)
16 of 24 teams advance, so it might not matter that much. Still ridiculous of course.

Possibly. Though being in a group of death of course makes it much much harder to finish as one of the best 3rd place teams. If say Portugal loses to Germany and France, they are almost certainly out, behind 3rd place teams that managed a draw against much easier opponents (e.g. Ukraine v Austria).

And of course it affects seeding for the next round too. You could easily see something like Belgium or Holland against France or Germany in the round of 16.

The more I look at the schedule and the format, the more it just seems completely ridiculous. I hadn't actually studied it all that much until now. But the fact that some group winners get to play 3rd place teams, while some have to play runners-up. And some 2nd place teams have to play group winners, while some get to play other 2nd place teams... just seems soooo imbalanced.

That's before getting into any actual specifics. For example, you almost certainly want to finish as runner up of group D, rather than group winner. Runner up gets you to play Sweden or Poland. Winning probably certainly gets you France or Germany (maybe Portugal, which you would still take Sweden/Poland over, especially since it means they managed to finish second in that group).
   659. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 01, 2019 at 07:03 AM (#5904673)
But the fact that some group winners get to play 3rd place teams, while some have to play runners-up. And some 2nd place teams have to play group winners, while some get to play other 2nd place teams... just seems soooo imbalanced.
This is a problem with all 24-team formats, where 16 advance. Obviously it becomes an even bigger problem if the groups themselves are unbalanced.
   660. Swedish Chef Posted: December 01, 2019 at 07:23 AM (#5904674)
That's before getting into any actual specifics. For example, you almost certainly want to finish as runner up of group D, rather than group winner. Runner up gets you to play Sweden or Poland. Winning probably certainly gets you France or Germany (maybe Portugal, which you would still take Sweden/Poland over, especially since it means they managed to finish second in that group).

None of those teams is particularly fearsome anymore. Sure, they have done their job in the qualifying, but so have England, and nobody is terrified of them. Spain especially is creaky as hell these days, I wouldn't bet on them topping the group at even odds.
   661. Swedish Chef Posted: December 01, 2019 at 07:26 AM (#5904675)
I don't see why one should count Portugal as something special. Ronaldo is four years older than last time.
   662. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 01, 2019 at 07:44 AM (#5904676)
Spain is still fourth in world ELO ratings. Portugal 6th. Ahead of Germany fwiw.

Spain also get to play all their games at home, and won't have to be dealing with the pan European travel issues the other teams have.

Betting markets have Spain at about 1/3 to win the group. Portugal to win the group is between 3/1 and 4/1 most places. Can't find odds beyond that in a quick search. But while they are clearly behind France and Germany, their odds won't be that long to finish in the top 2.

Both Poland and Sweden are given much worse odds of winning their group than Portugal is, despite them being in a much much easier group.
   663. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 01, 2019 at 07:53 AM (#5904677)
Also, I don't see how it changes the calculus much, even if you are right. If Spain are as creaky as you suggest, and can't win that group with HFA advantage, you would still much rather play them then play France or Germany.

Portugal only comes into it, if they can finish ahead of France or Germany, in which case they will probably have shown that they are for real.
   664. Swedish Chef Posted: December 01, 2019 at 09:08 AM (#5904678)
France is a quality team, but Germany was a disgrace last time and what says they have righted the ship? They haven't impressed against decent teams since then.

Spain also get to play all their games at home, and won't have to be dealing with the pan European travel issues the other teams have.


True, if Bilbao still is Spanish next summer.

Betting markets have Spain at about 1/3 to win the group.

Betting markets are good at underestimating Sweden. I don't fear Spain.
   665. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 01, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5904712)
Ref in the Atletico/Barca neglects to give Pique a second yellow when it was clearly deserved with 20 minutes left. 8 minutes later, Vitolo, also on a yellow, returns the favor for Atletico with an even more obvious challenge on Pique that deserved a caution (arguably a straight red). Of course, now the ref can't give him a second yellow or he would be seen as playing favorites, so Vitolo stays on.

Pretty much textbook how not to ref a soccer game.

edit: Pique comes off a minute later. Due to the roughness of Vitolo's challenge, he can't continue.
   666. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 01, 2019 at 05:56 PM (#5904715)
From ESPNFC:


It is United's worst start to a season since 1988.

To put it into context, Solskjaer's United have taken 26 points from the 22 league games since he was appointed permanent manager in March. Mauricio Pochettino was sacked by Tottenham after collecting 25 points from his last 22 games in charge. Unai Emery was dismissed by Arsenal having taken 28 points from his final 22 games.

...

Even framed within United's recent history, Solskjaer is in uncharted territory. Mourinho took 35 points from his last 22 games before he was sacked. Before Louis van Gaal got the axe, it was 37 points from his last 22. David Moyes managed 36 points in his last 22 games in charge.
   667. Mefisto Posted: December 01, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5904719)
Oh c'mon -- it was really encouraging to see United go toe-to-toe with Aston Villa and not back down. And you're not accounting for the fact that Ed Woodard tells us that it's really hard for the world's richest club to do more than 3 transfers in a window. That's especially true when there were no transfer windows before summer 2019.
   668. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 01, 2019 at 06:35 PM (#5904720)
The problem with canning Solskjaer is frankly somewhat similar to what we are seeing with Arsenal now too. Those clubs are currently fundamentally flawed from the top down. I don’t think Solsjkaer is doing a particularly poor job (nor a great job) but I think he’s doing what he should with the quality that ManU have. If you put that same collection of players in West Ham or Wolves uniforms would their point total really look different?

He’ll probably get iced sooner than later but I don’t think it will make a difference. Robbie Mustoe was all worked up at the end of today’s Arsenal game saying they drew 2-2 with a relegation club under Emery and now they drew 2-2 with a relegation club under Ljungberg and that shows Ljungberg isn’t the right man for the job. Arsenal and United are simply mid-table teams right now and until both teams do a fundamental change of how they run things it doesn’t matter who the manager is I don’t think we should expect meaningful change.
   669. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 01, 2019 at 06:37 PM (#5904721)
In other news until today I wasn’t concerned that Everton would go down, too good to be relegated and all that but now...

Unlike Arsenal/United I think there is a level of skill with Everton that should be better than they are. They just make too many mistakes and that is on Silva largely. For 70 minutes today they played really well. For all the possession Leicester had they really weren’t getting chances but they made basic errors at the end leading to the goals.
   670. Mefisto Posted: December 01, 2019 at 06:51 PM (#5904724)
I agree with 668 about Solskjaer. Besides, no good manager would take the United job right now after seeing what the club will fail to do in support. Unless they pay him a TON of money.
   671. Mefisto Posted: December 01, 2019 at 06:54 PM (#5904725)
I'm still optimistic about Everton. They're as close to Spurs as Spurs are to Chelsea. It wouldn't take that much to turn them around. That's not to say Silva is right for the job....
   672. The_Ex Posted: December 01, 2019 at 06:54 PM (#5904726)
This is a week with Premier league games mid-week. Over the next seven days Liverpool play Everton, Man Utd play both Spurs and Man City. Arsenal get to play Brighton and West Ham. Both are winnable but also potential banana peels. The week after they play Man City so they need wins in those two games.

Despite the difference in league position, the Liverpool derby is usually very competitive as the players, and the crowd, get fired up. Man Utd could easily lose both of their games. It will be interesting to see if the Utd players are fired up to face Jose again. If Utd lose both, they would probably be in the bottom half after 16 games.

   673. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: December 02, 2019 at 09:07 AM (#5904770)
I agree with 668 about Solskjaer. Besides, no good manager would take the United job right now after seeing what the club will fail to do in support. Unless they pay him a TON of money.


They're going to end up hilariously overpaying for Brendan Rodgers or something.
   674. Mefisto Posted: December 02, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5904784)
Oh, they could do WAY worse than Brendan Rogers, and probably will.
   675. spivey Posted: December 02, 2019 at 10:09 AM (#5904794)
Man U is currently 4th in xPoints, ahead of Leicester and about even with Chelsea, and mostly done without their best player (Pogba). I don't love their team, and they've not gotten results, but if you look at it from a certain perspective, it's hard for me to argue OGS is doing a bad job. Their limitations seem to be with the roster - they need 2 midfielders and a better striker.
   676. Mefisto Posted: December 02, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5904840)
I don't love their team, and they've not gotten results, but if you look at it from a certain perspective, it's hard for me to argue OGS is doing a bad job. Their limitations seem to be with the roster - they need 2 midfielders and a better striker.


Agreed.
   677. Mefisto Posted: December 02, 2019 at 12:33 PM (#5904842)
   678. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 02, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5904941)
Man U is currently 4th in xPoints, ahead of Leicester and about even with Chelsea,

Also 4th in non-penalty xGD, but you can call them 5th since they are just ahead of Leicester, who have played a harder schedule.
   679. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5904948)
Alisson wins Yashin Trophy for best GK
DeLigt wins Kopa Trophy for best under 21
Rapinoe wins Womens Ballon d'Or.

Waiting on the Ballon d'Or.

Edit: So far we have

10) Mahrez
9) Bernardo Silva
8) Lewandowski
7) Alisson
6) Mbappe
5) Salah
   680. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5904955)
Ok it looks like

4) Mane
3) Ronaldo
2) Van Dijk
1) Messi

Messi wins for the 6th time. I edited because there was some confusion as to the order of the second thru fourth spots but it has been confirmed.
   681. spivey Posted: December 02, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5904985)
Interested in Baldrick's take, but my understanding of Rapinoe winning the women's Ballon d'Or is roughly the same as Ronaldo finishing 3rd.
   682. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5904989)
Interested in Baldrick's take, but my understanding of Rapinoe winning the women's Ballon d'Or is roughly the same as Ronaldo finishing 3rd.


In other words, you don't feel Ronaldo should have sniffed it this year? I was surprised he finished that high as well.
   683. spivey Posted: December 02, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5904996)
I wouldn't have had Ronaldo in my top 10.
   684. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 05:14 PM (#5905006)
Who do you think is the best player that didn't make the top ten
   685. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 05:25 PM (#5905011)
I guess to rephrase I'm curious to see who people think are the biggest snubs here. If anybody cares :) Seems like DeBruyne could have cracked the top ten if he didn't have injuries, but that's not really a snub.
   686. Mefisto Posted: December 02, 2019 at 05:42 PM (#5905016)
Sterling.
   687. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 02, 2019 at 07:40 PM (#5905050)
Gladbach may be a fun team to watch, but the betting markets are not sold on them. Still given under 5% to win the Bundesliga. Bayern is at over 70%.

Gladbach hosts Bayern on Saturday. Odds have Gladbach as only 16% to win (Bayern 63%). At home. These teams are not considered comparable right now.

(for reference, that's basically the same odds that the Bournemouth/Liverpool game (in Bournemouth) is getting, which is being played at the same time.)
   688. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 07:47 PM (#5905052)
I’m pretty interested in Lazio vs Juventus and Roma vs Inter this weekend. Cagliari left it til late but beat Sampdoria despite conceding 3 goals which puts them in a tie for 4th with Roma but otherwise those are all top 4 teams.
   689. Baldrick Posted: December 03, 2019 at 07:30 AM (#5905122)
Interested in Baldrick's take, but my understanding of Rapinoe winning the women's Ballon d'Or is roughly the same as Ronaldo finishing 3rd.

Rapinoe played a total of 1400 minutes for club and country in 2019, scoring 9 goals and recording 7 assists. The idea that she was the best player in the world is laughable. Imagine that Ronaldo only played in the Champions League over the whole year, and that's a pretty good comp.
   690. spivey Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:11 AM (#5905134)
Biggest snub on top 10 list: Not counting guys like Neymar/KDB who were too hurt but are top 10 players, I'd agree with Mefisto and say Sterling. At least among attackers. I think Son is rightfully on the fringe there. Not as good as Sterling, but had some huge moments carrying Tottenham in the league and in early 2019. Another guy that I don't get to watch all of the time because he plays in La Liga, but I absolutely love, is Casemiro. I think he'd probably be in my world starting XI (over Kante). Real hasn't had a great 2019, so maybe he's a bad pick. Same with Benzema - he carried Real for long stretches of 2019 from what I've seen/heard. Gnabry's been very impressive too when you consider country form as well.
   691. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:36 AM (#5905140)
Thank you for answering. This is my first year paying attention to the awards ceremony so I wasn't sure what to make of it. Seems like there is a healthy portion of "popularity contest" incorporated.
   692. jmurph Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:42 AM (#5905143)
10) Mahrez

Is this serious?

EDIT: Huh. I know he had a good Cup of Nations but that's ridiculous.

And yes, a 2nd to Sterling, who is better and had a better year than... most of the guys in the top 10.
   693. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:08 AM (#5905154)
I thought that Lewandowski would have been closer to the top of the list but I'm not sure if the voting includes only the 2018-2019 season, or if it's the 2019 calendar year.
   694. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:16 PM (#5905346)
Crystal Palace hosting Bournemouth. Palace goes down a man in the 19' but Bournemouth can't take advantage and score. Palace finally picks up a goal in the 76' and leads 1-0 in the 86'.
   695. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5905353)
Palace holds on for a 1-0 victory. City ahead 2-0 at Burnley on two goals by Gabriel Jesus. Mahrez (the supposed 10th best player in the world) did not start today.
   696. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5905362)
Would have liked to see the clean sheet, but City with a decisive 4-1 victory at Burnley today. The best they've looked in awhile to my eyes.
   697. Baldrick Posted: December 03, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5905363)
At this moment, Crystal Palace is 5th in the table. What the what.
   698. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 03, 2019 at 05:18 PM (#5905368)
Anyone do the Amazon Prime experience today?
   699. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5905373)
At this moment, Crystal Palace is 5th in the table. What the what.


Crazy that they were able to win that game today. I didn't watch it, but Bournemouth must have been terrible to play over 70 minutes with a man advantage and lose.
   700. Mefisto Posted: December 03, 2019 at 05:50 PM (#5905379)
Flip.
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