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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

OT- Soccer Thread- October 2019

Hey, when I have to submit the thread we get a bad intro, that’s just how it works.

jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:55 PM | 1125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   701. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 03, 2019 at 06:59 PM (#5905400)
flop
   702. Baldrick Posted: December 03, 2019 at 08:24 PM (#5905411)
   703. Mefisto Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:05 PM (#5905419)
I've come to accept that awards voting often misses on players 2-X. I'd prefer the voters be better informed, but they aren't, and it can be hard to distinguish sometimes. But to miss on #1 is unforgiveable.

I'd be inclined to blame sexism -- the voters clearly don't care much about the women's game -- but they often make the same mistake with the men. They're just bad voters.

Good article.
   704. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:54 PM (#5905428)
That's a really good piece Baldrick. Have you gotten much feedback on it? I think you got a bit overly nitpicky on the section where you break down her goals, it felt like you are looking for reasons to eliminate her rather than letting the facts speak for themselves. And you laid those out very nicely right out of the chute. Your point about her lack of playing time and the performances of Kerr and Miedema (to name two) are very good. As you noted earlier in the thread and in the piece she played ~1500 minutes. This is the equivalent of giving the Ballon d'or to Kevin DeBruyne who was phenomenal but missed a bunch of time.

What I really liked though was this at the end;

But I care about the sport as a whole. I want people engaged in it to take their responsibility seriously. I want considered, engaged debates that reflect the accumulated knowledge of experts. I want performances to matter more than fame.


Someone on the Football Weekly podcast touched on this recently (might've been Suzy Wrack, not sure who) when talking about Phil Neville. The person was saying that for women's soccer to be truly meaningful it needs to get past the point where the press just pumps it up. Rather than praising Neville for England's wins he should be criticized for some of his errors and the struggles. I am paraphrasing poorly but I think you get at the same concept here. While I generally don't get worked up about awards/Hall of Fame/that kind of thing anymore I think for a sport in a growth mode like women's soccer it's important to recognize the genuine best of the best. Rapinoe getting this award feels like the people voting just said "ok, who have we heard of?"

Highly recommend the piece though, it's really good.
   705. jmurph Posted: December 04, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5905469)
Anyone do the Amazon Prime experience today?

Was this a U.S. thing, too? I assumed it was just in the UK (I know we also have UK posters, so this question may have just been for them...).
   706. manchestermets Posted: December 04, 2019 at 09:59 AM (#5905475)
I didn't, because I don't have Amazon Prime. I'll be doing the dodgy re-stream of NBC experience for the United v Spurs game tonight.
   707. Baldrick Posted: December 04, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5905499)
That's a really good piece Baldrick. Have you gotten much feedback on it? I think you got a bit overly nitpicky on the section where you break down her goals, it felt like you are looking for reasons to eliminate her rather than letting the facts speak for themselves. And you laid those out very nicely right out of the chute. Your point about her lack of playing time and the performances of Kerr and Miedema (to name two) are very good. As you noted earlier in the thread and in the piece she played ~1500 minutes. This is the equivalent of giving the Ballon d'or to Kevin DeBruyne who was phenomenal but missed a bunch of time.

Going slightly behind the curtains a bit, I actually wrote the piece because I was frustrated that even the 'Rapinoe wasn't the best player' pieces I was reading kept framing the issue as 'even a transcendent WC performance alone doesn't make someone the best player' and I wanted to challenge that premise. Hence the digging into the weeds a bit. Whether that was an important point to make, I don't know, but that's where I was coming from.

But yes, the fact that she only played 1500 minutes is obviously the centerpiece of the case, and would leave her well out of the top 20 even if her World Cup had been as good as some people seem to believe.

The Offside Rule/Guardian are putting out their list of the top 100 players this week. The voting pool is far more engaged than the ones for the other awards, so there's some potential of a more reasonable result. But from what I hear, it's probably not going to be THAT much better. They've done 100-41 so far, and while there's plenty I disagree with, it's mostly in the range of legitimate disagreement among engaged people. Like, Mallory Pugh doesn't belong anywhere near this list, but a few undeserving players in the 70s isn't a huge deal.

In terms of feedback, it's mostly been either 'yep, agree' or 'you think it's easy to score a penalty why don't YOU try it?'
   708. Mefisto Posted: December 04, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5905509)
Lloyd won the award for a great performance in 1 game. It was a WC final and it was pretty spectacular, and that should count for a lot, but I doubt it makes anyone PotY.
   709. Baldrick Posted: December 04, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5905614)
Lloyd won the award for a great performance in 1 game. It was a WC final and it was pretty spectacular, and that should count for a lot, but I doubt it makes anyone PotY.

The hilarious thing there is that she won in 2015 based on a great performance in one game. And then she won again in 2016 (!) again based entirely on that same great performance the previous year.
   710. Mefisto Posted: December 04, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5905618)
So you're saying she could be Steve Garvey?
   711. Dale Sams Posted: December 04, 2019 at 02:43 PM (#5905640)
Anyone playing FM 20? How do you like it?

I uploaded this "Lucky goal" as the game calls it.Can't say I've seen that happen at any level where the forward just stood there and took the punt off the body. Thrown, kicked yes....I've seen that. Punted? No.

Rhian Brewster
   712. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 04, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5905656)
WE'VE GOT ALLI, DELE ALLI!

STREWTH that was a lovely goal.
   713. Dale Sams Posted: December 04, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5905658)
STREWTH that was a lovely goal.


Reminds me of the famous one Arsenal had against Newcastle
   714. jmurph Posted: December 04, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5905665)
So Everton are definitely firing Silva tomorrow, right?
   715. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 04, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5905675)
It's a beatdown.
   716. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 04, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5905688)
If Everton goes on to lose, they will be in the bottom 3. Not 3rd most likely to be relegated though--only one or two points behind a bunch of teams that really aren't as good as them.
   717. Dale Sams Posted: December 04, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5905691)
I was looking at Silva's wiki entry....weird career.
   718. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 04, 2019 at 05:13 PM (#5905701)
Liverpool remains 8 clear of Leicester and 11 clear of City. Wolves climb into 5th place by their lonesome. Quietly having a pretty good season so far.
   719. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 04, 2019 at 05:30 PM (#5905713)
Norwich and Watford (what a dismal showing today by Watford) are serious favorites for relegation at the moment. Third spot is wide open, and no one team alone is very ikely. Villa/Southampton/Newcastle are the most likely, followed by West Ham, then Bournemouth, then Brighton, and finally Burnley/Everton.

Other than the original other teams in the top 9, the only teams less likely to be relegated than Everton are Sheffield and Palace.

Bad results today for Tottenham, so the race for top 4 is getting closer to being over: Leicester 79%, Chelsea 71%, Tottenham 24%, Man Utd 11% Arsenal 10% Wolves 5%.
   720. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 04, 2019 at 05:36 PM (#5905714)
Horrible performance by Everton, right? Not according to xG or 538. Considering Everton was playing a much better team on the road, they didn't do that badly, and their team ranking actually went up slightly by 538's methodology.

They're still 7th in the league by 538's methodology, ahead of Arsenal and Wolves. 6th in understat's non-penalty xGD (though still having played a fairly easy schedule).
   721. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 04, 2019 at 08:23 PM (#5905745)
I mentioned earlier that I was surprised to see that some of the EPL teams played one team twice over the first half, so we didn't have two "true" halves of the schedule. It seems that what actually happened this year is that the December 26 and December 28 games have all been reversed, such that every team plays one team twice in the first half (the team on December 26) and one twice in the second half (the one on December 28). Not sure why they reversed those two dates, but if they hadn't, there would have been two "true" halves. I think that was the case last year, for example.
   722. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: December 04, 2019 at 09:51 PM (#5905764)
Wait, does the EPL usually try to have the schedule be that they play every team in each half of the season? I never realized that. Is that something that is true in most of the big leagues?
   723. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:36 AM (#5905799)
Dunno for sure without looking, but here is something straight from the horse's (er, lion's) mouth (emphasis added):

What is "sequencing"?
That's the methodology we use which is all about breaking the season down into a number of constituent parts, which are called sets. We break it down into five sets, which are reversed in the second half of the season.


https://www.premierleague.com/news/419044

I read this as saying that for the EPL, they usually do play a true half. You can see proof of the statement above in the scheduling this year, which is done in 4 blocks of 4 consecutive games, and 1 block of 3 consecutive games, in each half of the season, with the one exception I noted above with regard to December 28.

It turns out, if you just take that oddball date out and put it on the front end of the season, you get two perfect halves with all blocks consecutive. This year, for example, Manchester United plays Burnley on December 28. Put that up front as week 1 and you get (for Manchester United opponents):

1st block: Burnley / Chelsea / Wolves. Repeated in second half (not in the same order) as the 2nd block
2nd block: Palace / Southampton / Leicester / West Ham . Repeated in 2nd half as the 5th (last) block
3rd block: Arsenal / Newcastle / Liverpool / Norwich . Repeated in 2nd half as the 1st block (remember to take out the oddball Burnley game week and put it up top)
4th block: Bournemouth / Brighton / Sheffield / Villa. Repeated in 2nd half as the 4th block
5th block: Tottenham / City / Everton / Watford. Repeated in 2nd half as the 3rd block.

edit: by "reversed" I think they just mean home v away
   724. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:44 AM (#5905800)
The same 5 blocks are league-wide, repeated as a block in the second half in the same relative spot as above. Within each block the teams are not necessarily played in the same order.

Tottenham has:
1st block: Norwich / Villa / City (2nd block in 2nd half)
2nd block: Newcastle / Arsenal / Palace / Leicester (5th block in 2nd half)
3rd block: Southampton / Brighton / Watford / Liverpool (1st block in 2nd half)
4th block: Everton / Sheffield / West Ham / Bournemouth (4th block in 2nd half)
5th block: United / Burnley / Wolves / Chelsea (3rd block in 2nd half)

In 2018-2019 they did the same thing I think, except they didn't have the oddball week problem. I'm not sure why they had to make a special exception this year.

I don't know what other leagues do.
   725. Mefisto Posted: December 05, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5905841)
Moyes in!!
   726. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5905858)
Moyes in!!


Has it been made official?
   727. Mefisto Posted: December 05, 2019 at 11:45 AM (#5905891)
Not yet, just rumor. I couldn't resist.
   728. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:25 PM (#5905918)
Haha, you had me digging around. I'm too gullible for the internet.
   729. Mefisto Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:39 PM (#5905931)
Sorry.
   730. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 05, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5905961)
Wait, does the EPL usually try to have the schedule be that they play every team in each half of the season? I never realized that. Is that something that is true in most of the big leagues?

I haven't looked into it in every league, but pretty sure this is the normal way of scheduling, yes. In the Bundesliga for example, it is even more apparent, than in the PL. There, the second half schedule is in the exact same order as the first half (with home and away teams switching obviously), with the season split directly into 2 halves by the month long winter break.
   731. The_Ex Posted: December 05, 2019 at 02:42 PM (#5905989)
Moyes in!!

Now official.
   732. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5906008)
Silva out!

Fergie in!

Duncan Ferguson, that is (temporarily).
   733. frannyzoo Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5906010)
Emirates crowd is barely even audible midway through 1st Half of Arsenal/Brighton. Funereal almost, not to mention BHA is showing most of the goal-scoring promise.
   734. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5906016)
Just about the 60' mark at Bramall Lane and Sheffield is losing to Newcastle 1-0.
   735. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5906017)
If Arsenal can pull of a half-decent performance today, the preseason top 9 will also be 9 out of the top 10 in non-pen xGD, and xPoints as well. The only interloper? No, not Palace (whose underlying numbers have not been good so far) or Sheffield United (who have been solidly midtable), but Burnley. For those who may have forgotten, Burnley also played the second half of last season pretty well.

Now, some teams, chiefly Chelsea and Leicester, are doing better in the underlying numbers than was expected. Others, in particular Tottenham and Arsenal, are doing worse.
   736. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:59 PM (#5906019)
Did all the players stop playing on that Newcastle goal? oops.

edit: So, the EPL announcers and everyone seems to want to have the linesman raise the flag, but the ref not blow the whistle, due to VAR. I'm not sure why this way of doing things is thought to be better than having the linesman leave the flag down until the chance is over, like they do in every other league now post-VAR. Wouldn't that cause less confusion and get you to the same place?
   737. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5906021)
Could have a pair of road upsets today.
   738. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5906023)
Newcastle doing again what they did to City. 3 shots only, and 2 goals.
   739. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:07 PM (#5906024)
Sheffield with 11 shots, 6 on goal.
   740. Dale Sams Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:09 PM (#5906027)
Newcastle doing again what they did to City. 3 shots only, and 2 goals.


That's called FMing an opponent
   741. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:16 PM (#5906030)
If Arsenal can pull of a half-decent performance today


Down a goal to the Seagulls and booed off the pitch at home at the half ... though, to be honest, with this Arsenal team, I'm not actually sure whether that constitutes a "half-decent performance" or not ...
   742. Dale Sams Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5906034)
Newcastle might as well create a striker-less tactic at this point. Or just field Usain Bolt for through balls.
   743. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5906042)
Even with that freebie, Sheffield United had the better of xG 1.2-0.5. To be fair to Newcastle, even if the players hadn't stopped, it likely would have been a high xG chance, though much less likely to have been a goal.

Newcastle has only had 2 games all year where they had as much xG as Sheffield had against them today.
   744. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5906044)
Whether deservedly or not, it's been a pretty nice run of results for the Toon, the last 8 games or so. A club in their position can scoff at the way they get their points. Not when you are playing for survival. They have a decent cushion now, and quite a few teams who would have to outplay them the rest of the way, for them to go down.
   745. Dale Sams Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5906048)
They ever want to increase scoring...just say offside is if the entire body is offside. So as long as a foot is in an onside position....a goal would stand.
   746. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5906052)
Yeah it's interesting how VAR has changed those set piece plays. Defenders have adjusted and are generally holding their line with a lot of confidence that VAR will back them up if the linesman misses the call. Offensive players don't seem to have fully adapted yet--you'd think they'd work on timing runs with the set piece taker so that they are moving at some speed when the ball is kicked. Even if they are still a half-step upfield when the ball is played, they'd have the edge over a defender coming from a standing position.
   747. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5906056)
As far as reading books about soccer techniques and strategy, do any of you have any suggestions? Inverting the Pyramid is next in my queue. Any others?
   748. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5906060)
Announcers talking about the VAR review of the Brighton goal: "clean as a whistle".

Might want to come up with a different expression for immaculate goals in the VAR era.
   749. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 05, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5906069)
Arsenal is in sad shape right now. They aren't really any worse than they were at the start of the season, but they aren't getting the lucky breaks they were getting early.
   750. Richard Posted: December 05, 2019 at 10:08 PM (#5906128)
As far as reading books about soccer techniques and strategy, do any of you have any suggestions? Inverting the Pyramid is next in my queue. Any others?


The Mixer, by Michael Cox - a history of tactics in the Premier League. Very good.
   751. Richard Posted: December 05, 2019 at 10:10 PM (#5906129)
Even with that freebie, Sheffield United had the better of xG 1.2-0.5. To be fair to Newcastle, even if the players hadn't stopped, it likely would have been a high xG chance, though much less likely to have been a goal.

Newcastle has only had 2 games all year where they had as much xG as Sheffield had against them today.


That was an annoying defeat to say the least.

On the second goal, credit to Shelvey for using his head and carrying on - there was clearly no offside - and shame of the Blades defenders for not playing to the whistle. It didn't really make any difference. We could have played all night and not scored. it was one of those games.
   752. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 09:04 AM (#5906167)
The Mixer, by Michael Cox


This looks really good. Thank you.

   753. Baldrick Posted: December 06, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5906302)
If you want even more content on 'the best women's soccer players of 2019,' the Guardian/Offside Rule list is finished. It's definitely the best list I've seen so far, though still pretty flawed in my opinion. I also wrote up my own top 40 list, which I'm sure is also flawed, but in a different way.
   754. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5906368)
Roma steals a point in Milan with a 0-0 draw. Dzeko apparently had the flu but played for about 30 minutes at the end of the game.
   755. Mefisto Posted: December 06, 2019 at 05:24 PM (#5906378)
@753: No mention of Horan?
   756. Baldrick Posted: December 06, 2019 at 05:28 PM (#5906379)
@753: No mention of Horan?

Didn't do a lot for the US (including getting crowded out by Mewis at the WC) and had a pretty forgettable year for Portland. Wouldn't argue with someone who wanted her on their list, but I had another 15-20 players I would have gone to before her.
   757. Mefisto Posted: December 06, 2019 at 06:00 PM (#5906392)
MCoA was quite high on her in this article for 538.
   758. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 06, 2019 at 06:20 PM (#5906397)
I don't have a dog in this fight, since I don't watch enough women's soccer. However, in his statement about Horan, MCoA x-ref'd an SB Nation article that has Rapinoe 20th in the world, Heath 3rd, Martens 4th, Sinclair 10th, Morgan 15th and Marta 27th (as well as Horan 6th). Even with my limited knowledge that doesn't seem great. Miedema was only 12th.

Of course, that list was made halfway through 2019, and I think was supposed to be based on expected quality rather than performance over any specific period of time, so it's a little bit of apples to oranges.

   759. Mefisto Posted: December 06, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5906399)
I didn't read that SBN article, but MCoA also included charts which showed that Horan was quite effective in the lead-up to the WC. He also tweeted that his review of the data led him to conclude that she was "the perfect midfielder".

I'm not trying to make the case for Horan (though I guess it seems like it), more just wondering at the disparity of MCoA being that enthusiastic and Baldrick failing to include her at all.
   760. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 06, 2019 at 11:19 PM (#5906462)
The stats he showed were from 2017-2019, and Lavelle actually had better stats than Horan. Also, his article clearly thought Horan would start against France (day after the article came out), but she came off the bench in the 63rd minute for Lavelle and didn't play particularly well when she came on, with Ellis opting to start the other 3 midfielders: Mewis, Ertz, and Lavelle. By all accounts, Ertz (#4 on Baldrick's list) had a great game.

She started and had a better game against England, but the other midfielders also played well and I'm not sure she stood out. She didn't play at all in the final. Not exactly what you would expect from the consensus best midfielder in the world.
   761. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 06, 2019 at 11:37 PM (#5906466)
Reading further, Horan was MVP of the NWSL in 2018, and had a fantastic year, but there was a huge drop-off in 2019, both in terms of games played and performance. I don't know the causes of it. She wasn't injured during the WWC.
   762. Baldrick Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:58 AM (#5906482)
Yeah, Horan really was a legitimate contender for best player in the world in 2018. She was much, much worse in 2019. No obvious reason why, though I suspect she had some nagging injuries that never really healed.

We were all very frustrated that she wasn't getting used more in the WC, but in retrospect it doesn't seem nearly so wrong. She was clearly the least effective of the four main options over the course of the year. Like many Jill Ellis decisions that seem baffling in the moment, that one turned out to be less absurd than it once seemed.
   763. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5906495)
Bayern predictably dominated the first half, 15 shots to 1. The only chances Gladbach had were when Bayern made errors playing out of the back.

No score yet though.
   764. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5906499)
Fantastic individual effort from Sonny; picked up the ball by Spurs' box, dribbled the length if the pitch through almost the entire Burnley squad and then coolly slotted it home.

Gorgeous.
   765. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5906500)
Today is a great day for soccer across leagues.

Watching Bayern/Gladbach now, then Manchester derby, then Lazio/Juve.

As AuntBea noted, Gladbach don't look like a top team. Bayern is like City, they can do that to even pretty good teams, but I don't see much about how Gladbach can actually generate offense. And their defense and goalkeeper play hasn't looked great either after an ok early start.
   766. Baldrick Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:47 AM (#5906501)
That Son goal is absolutely ridiculous but also good god what are Burnley doing.
   767. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5906503)
I've loved Son for a couple of years, but he just keeps getting better. I'm not sure where he ranks among the top wingers in the world, but imo he's only barely behind Sterling and Mane. And on his day, I think he can dominate a game offensively in a way that even Mane cannot, though Mane's so complete - I love his defensive workrate.
   768. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5906506)
Gladbach made a change in the lineup and are playing much better.
   769. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:59 AM (#5906509)
Bayern look absolutely shambles on set pieces. Most of the good Gladbach chances have come on those. The game is getting stretched a bit which is good for Gladbach too. They have a couple of pretty pacy and athletic looking players in the middle of the pitch and up the field who are causing Bayern trouble in take-on situations.
   770. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5906510)
Tottenham has Wolves and Chelsea coming up, so can get right back in the top 4 race with a couple of wins. Won't be easy of course.
   771. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:10 AM (#5906511)
Watford was favored against Palace today. Bettors think that Palace is only slightly better, despite the huge gap in the table.
   772. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:14 AM (#5906513)
You know Gladbach looks as likely to score as Bayern at this stage in the game. Physically they are starting to dominate the middle of the park, though there's space open both ways.
   773. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:19 AM (#5906515)
That is absolutely garbage defending from Javi Martinez. Man, he he a slow ###### these days.
   774. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5906516)
Terrible play by Javi Martinez, might have given the win to Gladbach. Didn't need to make the challenge and was way late.
   775. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5906518)
Great PK and now Bayern have 2 minutes to chase an equalizer down a man. Have to say the Javi Martinez sub was so bad. Gladbach was already ascending, but Martinez's lack of athleticism in the middle of the pitch really hurt Bayern as the game went on.
   776. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5906519)
The ref letting the game get physical in the middle of the park really helped Gladbach, but I have to say tactics and substitutions were the different in that match. I'm interested to see what - if anything - this may do for their coaching search. Those are big dropped points for Bayern, not just for chasing Gladbach but also Leipzig.
   777. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:31 AM (#5906520)
Yeah, Bayern absolutely bossed the first half. They needed to come away with some goals from that. The closest they came was when Sommer in goal misplayed a ball, and had to dive after it, as it was rolling over the line. He got one single finger on the ball, and managed to stop it with what the technology deemed to be a slight sliver of the ball still over the line, and then pulled it out with his other hand.

The Bayern goal in the second half seemed to be a bit of a wakeup call for Gladbach. They played significantly better after that. Not sure they deserved the win, or even a draw. But maybe they would have had the same reaction to Bayern scoring earlier, and Bayern were able to rack up the xG advantage in the first half, because they didn't manage to score. Kind of unknowable, but interesting to think about at least.
   778. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:33 AM (#5906521)
Right. Gladbach will still be considered a longshot to win the league, maybe still 4th likely after Bayern and Dortmund. Leipzig not so much, especially after the results today.
   779. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5906523)
Per understat: 1st half xG 0.03-1.54. 2nd half xG 0.54-0.20, plus the penalty of course. The second half was more open than that both ways, but the teams just missed out on getting good shots off.

It's even starker if you look at the difference before and after the 1st Gladbach Sub (58'): .03-1.74 before, and .54-0.01 after.

edit: actually maybe the sub came right after the goal, so that might not be right.
edit2: different sources say different things! But I think the sub came before the goal.
   780. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5906524)
The ref letting the game get physical in the middle of the park really helped Gladbach, but I have to say tactics and substitutions were the different in that match. I'm interested to see what - if anything - this may do for their coaching search. Those are big dropped points for Bayern, not just for chasing Gladbach but also Leipzig.

I thought Bayern were vulnerable this season, but it looked for a while like no team was going to step up and put in a serious challenge. But it is getting to the point, where it isn't just the points Bayern are adrift, but the number of teams they have to pass as well. It's hard enough to claw back points against one team. But when you have half a dozen teams you are chasing, it leaves you vulnerable to any one of them going on a tear, and it's almost guaranteed that one of them won't have a slip up. So you have to figure Bayern has to be near perfect from this point on, to have a chance.
   781. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5906526)
So you have to figure Bayern has to be near perfect from this point on, to have a chance.
The betting odds really don't support this. Bayern is still given 50%+ to win the league. Gladbach 10% or so.
   782. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5906531)
Bayern are a super-public team, and have been on an absolute roll of dominance for years now. Title odds for them are always going to be heavily skewed, until they are mathematically eliminated. But this Bayern team is not all that, and the odds and public opinion haven't quite caught up to that point yet. (Not that they are a bad team. They are still the best team in the Bundesliga. But they are not overwhelmingly so, to the point where they can afford to spot teams a bunch of points, and should be favourites to chase down a handful of contenders.)

I would very happily take the field at even odds at this point.
   783. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5906535)
But they are not overwhelmingly so, to the point where they can afford to spot teams a bunch of points, and should be favourites to chase down a handful of contenders.)
People said that last year and were wrong. They were still much, much better than the rest of the teams. Yeah eventually it won't be true.
   784. Mefisto Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:21 PM (#5906542)
Gorgeous.


Giggsish.
   785. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:30 PM (#5906544)
People said that last year and were wrong. They were still much, much better than the rest of the teams. Yeah eventually it won't be true.

A) I did not say that last season.
B) They won the league by 2 fucking points on the last gameday. That's a massive overstatement. They were the best team. They were not "much, much better."
   786. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:34 PM (#5906546)
End to end stuff to start off the derby, hope it keeps up.
   787. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:39 PM (#5906547)
They won the league by 2 ####### points on the last gameday. That's a massive overstatement. They were the best team. They were not "much, much better."
No, they were a much, much better team than Dortmund and all the other Bundesliga teams. Take a look at the underlying stats.
   788. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:53 PM (#5906550)
Bad play by Bernardo Silva. Another one the defender didn't need to make. The ball had probably already gotten away from Rashford. Shocking the ref didn't call it live.
   789. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5906551)
Rashford was fouled there, though I feel like Tottenham has had several such calls that weren't overturned.

A goal is good for this game, City is gonna have to chase it.

Anyways, United look good right now, and I wonder if this is the year that Rashford becomes a top, top player. Of course as I say that he gets his angles wrong on a one time City, but then has an insanely cheeky attempt off the crossbar.
   790. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5906552)
This is a shooting gallery, and not in the direction you would expect. I don't think it will last though.

edit: I haven't seen a game this year where United has had so much space in attack. It must be City's style in general, but it's not working for them right now.
   791. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:59 PM (#5906553)
I can't help but say Ederson gives up some soft ####### goals. Edit: maybe that's harsh, he was pretty close to goal.
   792. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:01 PM (#5906555)
This is the worst City have played in like 5 years. Baffling.
   793. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5906557)
United are playing very, very well, to be fair.
   794. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5906561)
For two years that was supposed to be a penalty, but I think they changed the directives again so now if you slide and brace yourself with the arm, and the ball hits the arm, no penalty.
   795. Mefisto Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5906563)
United's best games this year have come against teams that like to possess the ball, allowing United to break on the counter. They're actually good at that, and have been under OGS.

The problem United have had is that their midfield hasn't been good enough to withstand pressure, but McTominay and Fred seem to have that sorted. So far.
   796. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5906568)
Yeah Fred seems revitalized since McTominay has been back. I picked on his performance against Sheffield (no McTominay), but it was much better against Tottenham (with McTominay).
   797. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5906569)
794: right. I have absolutely no idea *why* but they have definitely made defensive handballs much more rare while seemingly making offensive handballs more common.
   798. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:46 PM (#5906572)
Wan-Bissaka is really a hell of a defender. He is shutting down Sterling out wide.
   799. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5906573)
794: right. I have absolutely no idea *why* but they have definitely made defensive handballs much more rare while seemingly making offensive handballs more common.

That's my problem with it all. Defenders already had all of the benefit of the doubt with pushing and shoving, and that hasn't changed. But now inadvertent and often irrelevant hand balls also are going heavily in the defender's favor.

For the record, I don't think the bracing your body hand ball should have ever been called, and it's karma that Aguero missed the PK against Tottenham in the CL on Rose's handball.
   800. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5906574)
Flip
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