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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

OT- Soccer Thread- October 2019

Hey, when I have to submit the thread we get a bad intro, that’s just how it works.

jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:55 PM | 1125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   801. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5906575)
Disagree with your latter point spivey. The defender is going to the ground because it gives him a defensive advantage to do so. Risking a handball seems like the obvious trade off for that defensive advantage. Now, by rule, he gets both advantages.

Edit: “both advantages” is wrong. More like risk free.
   802. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5906579)
Scanning the schedule and results, City have one win against a top team in the league this season, over Chelsea.

They’ve had some good performances in a couple others and just been unlucky but still.

(Might have missed one, I looked quickly.)
   803. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5906581)
Disagree with your latter point spivey. The defender is going to the ground because it gives him a defensive advantage to do so. Risking a handball seems like the obvious trade off for that defensive advantage. Now, by rule, he gets both advantages.

That's fair. I would argue players are often doing that to protect their body, though it will vary on the situation.
   804. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5906584)
I'd love to see a tactics breakdown of this match from someone smarter than me. It seems like City often get much of their offense by overloading the wide areas and/or having Bernardo/Mahrez/Sterling be able to consistently beat fullbacks off the dribble. Shaw and Wan-Bissaka I feel like have won most (or all?) one-on-one attempts.

It also seems like the overloads haven't really materialized. I think some of that may be David Silva and DeBruyne have been really poor, but it also seems like the attempts at overloads haven't really been there. I wonder if some of that has to do with the defensive workrate of the Man U front line.
   805. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5906585)
I also don't watch enough of City to feel super confident saying this, but besides Laporte being missing, Angelino seems much worse than Zinchenko to me.
   806. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5906588)
Squeaky bum time for Man U fans!
   807. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5906591)
5 mins of anti-Fergie time.
   808. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:32 PM (#5906593)
City looks pretty decent on the final stats--though certainly they were expected to dominate at home against a significantly weaker team, and didn't come close to doing that.

538 had xG as 2.4-0.75 (+pen). non-shot xG was a slaughter, but maybe that's to be expected with City trailing all game.

edit: understat had it as 2.07-0.87 (+pen). Once United took a 2-goal lead the game changed a lot. Up to that point it was 0.60-0.54 (+pen).
   809. Mefisto Posted: December 07, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5906606)
I agree with 804. Wan-Bissaka is an incredible 1v1 defender. Sterling got him twice, I think, early on, but that was it. I don't know if Dan James is the best defensive winger in the EPL (OGS said he was), but he completely shut down Angelino. I think that was a huge part of the United success, though Luke Shaw deserves credit too for the job he did on Bernardo Silva.
   810. spivey Posted: December 07, 2019 at 04:16 PM (#5906614)
Cuadrado picked up a red with one of the clumsiest challenges you’ll ever see. And Juve will play the last 20 minutes down a man in a 1-1 match!
   811. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5906617)
EPL winner odds:
Liverpool 85%
City 10%
Leicester 4%

EPL Relegation odds:
Watford 77% (bit of a shame, because while not good, they aren't horrible either)
Norwich 75%
--
Villa 27%
Southampton 25%
Bournemouth 20%
West Ham 19%
Newcastle 16%
Burnley 12%
Brighton 9%
Sheffield 8%
Everton 6%
Palace 4%
Arsenal 1%


Bundesliga winner odds:
Bayern 58%
Leipzig 22%
Dortmund 9%
Gladbach 8%
Leverkusen 2%
Schalke 1%
   812. frannyzoo Posted: December 07, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5906621)
As much as it pains me to admit Lazio above Atalanta in the final standings, if this all means Juve is finally out and Gasperini's men get that newly donned 4th CL Spot, I'll have had a very happy Serie A season. Only about five months to go confirming all this, of course.

   813. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:12 PM (#5906687)
BTW, Borussia Dortmund went with an all black kit today. As in even the sponsor and the badge were just shades of black. The result is kinda interesting. Though you might need to watch some video to fully appreciate the full effect.
   814. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2019 at 09:04 AM (#5906759)
Leeds and West Brom are pulling away in the Championship. Both are on a recent hot streak. Leeds in particular looks good--probably were one of the top 2 teams in the Championship last year as well. They've only had the worse of xG in 1 game out of the 20 they've played this year, averaging about 1.1 xG more than their opponents (WBA is at about 0.6 more per game).
   815. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 08, 2019 at 09:12 AM (#5906760)
For about 3 minutes it looked like the world was ending at Villa. The weather was ungodly.
   816. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 08, 2019 at 09:23 AM (#5906761)
I’d really like to see something done about tactical fouling but I don’t know what to do. Straight reds are too harsh and would have the effect of making refs unwilling to call it (as happens in basketball). I hate seeing plays like the one Mings just made where he reaches out with his hand or the Guendouzi foolishness from a couple weeks ago. Some thoughts regarding different ideas;

Sin Bin - I like the idea of a 5/10 minute change but I wonder how much impact this would have. Would it just result in assorted time wasting tactics?

Red Card - As noted it just feels a bit harsh and I think what you’d have is refs wary of calling it.

Future Bans - Nothing in the current game but any player ruled to have committed a tactical foul is banned from the next match in the same competition (none of this BS about getting banned from a League Cup game).

How about a couple of silly ideas?

No Hands! - After a tactical foul the keeper is not allowed to use his hands for 60 seconds. This makes the tactical foul in your own half very risky.

No Wall! - Same idea, for a free kick from a tactical foul a team may not use a wall, all players must be at least 3 yards apart (or 5, 10, whatever) and the 10 yard radius around the taker is expanded to 20 yards.
   817. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 08, 2019 at 09:24 AM (#5906762)
I do not understand why a player on the bench isn’t ready to come on right away. I get needing to stretch a bit but why was the Villa reserve center back having to put his shirt and boots on?
   818. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2019 at 09:25 AM (#5906763)
Leicester scored in large part because they left Mings on the field with a tweaked hamstring. Then they took him out.
   819. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2019 at 10:01 AM (#5906766)
Mings was not ready to play... affected the goal in 3 separate ways. First, the other Villa player didn't play the ball back to him because Mings wasn't in position, and didn't look like he wanted, to receive it, leading to a turnover. Second, the pass to Vardy went past Mings taking him right out of the play. Had he been quicker he could have perhaps put some pressure on the pass or Vardy receiving it--as it was he was completely useless in no man's land. And third, Mings didn't hustle back after the ball passed him--it turned out Vardy scuffed the original shot and Mings probably could have affected the play had he been able to go at full speed even after he was taken out by the pass.

Just a terrible look all the way around. Can't blame Mings for not playing harder since it seems he was truly injured, but whoever was involved in leaving him on the field (the coaches or Mings himself) made a huge error.
   820. spivey Posted: December 08, 2019 at 10:17 AM (#5906770)
Will Leicester ever lose again?
   821. spivey Posted: December 08, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5906777)
Leicester look a bit leaky in defense this match, but they're creating chances like it's nothing.

This team looks like they're starting to believe.
   822. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 08, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5906778)
Leicester are legitimate. As an Everton fan Leicester are the team that frustrates me so much. If Leicester can do this, why not Everton (or any number of other teams)? Not necessarily the title winning season but the consistently good and exciting football.

whoever was involved in leaving him on the field (the coaches or Mings himself) made a huge error.


I don’t think Mings deserves criticism for wanting to stay on. Obviously in a perfect world a player will say he needs to come off but that’s the job of the medical staff and the coaches. Everyone watching including the announcers could see he had to come off. On top of that even if you accept that maybe they couldn’t make the the change right away shouldn’t there be some sort of adjustment where a midfielder drops into the back line just as a “just in case” kind of thing.
   823. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 08, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5906780)
Will Leicester ever lose again?

That's a strange way to spell 'Newcastle.'
   824. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5906785)
Another smash and grab by Newcastle. Almost as egregious as the last two, if you squint a little bit. Only under 0.5 xG for Newcastle until the GK spilled the shot for the high-xG winner tap in. 1.8 for Southampton.
   825. Richard Posted: December 08, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5906788)
Vital win for the Blades at Norwich. They were losing at the break but came out of the blocks fast and both wing backs scored.

Norwich are willing but their passing was consistently poor.

A VAR first for the PL - Chris Basham’s red card was (rightly) reversed. Pleasing as United got screwed again when they seemed to have scored a third.
   826. spivey Posted: December 08, 2019 at 11:32 AM (#5906797)
The reason I liked Leicester so much coming into the season is even more true now with how Soyuncu and Ricardo are playing. If you go across every single position on their starting XI, I think they're all above average PL players for that position. They're also young and can run for days, which works very well for their team makeup.

I think you could make a legitimate argument that their midfield has been best in the league, even better than City's.

Now all that said, Leicester have massively overperformed xPoints and Everton have massively underperformed. If you look at Understat, the gap isn't so large this year. But Leicester seems like while early on they were binking a lot of wins that weren't wholely deserved, lately they're starting to really play like a top team. They had 4.03 xG in the game today (per understat).
   827. spivey Posted: December 08, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5906800)
Leicester are legitimate. As an Everton fan Leicester are the team that frustrates me so much. If Leicester can do this, why not Everton (or any number of other teams)? Not necessarily the title winning season but the consistently good and exciting football.

A combination of the title win, the ownership, and Vardy and Schmeichel staying have all gived them legitimacy. Their ability to hold onto most of their players has been impressive. It's clear whoever their director of football is knows what they're doing. The targeting of Soyuncu, Ricardo, and Tielemans were all on point.

I think Demarai Gray would start for Tottenham, Man U, and Arsenal and he can't even get in the game for Leicester.
   828. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: December 08, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5906837)
If Leicester can do this, why not Everton (or any number of other teams)?


Because Vardy is a uniquely gifted player and those teams don't have him?
   829. Mefisto Posted: December 08, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5906840)
I'm not sure I'd say Vardy is uniquely gifted, but he's excellent. Everton have never really replaced Lukaku.
   830. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 09, 2019 at 10:49 AM (#5907030)
Barca seems to be heavily hinting they will not play their A lineup vs Inter.
   831. ckash Posted: December 09, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5907041)
If I may be indulged I have a rant about youth soccer...

My 13 year old daughter plays for a u15 team that won their division handily last year. The team is based out of a suburb of Lexington Ky of around 60,000 people. The teams they competed against were clubs from the Lexington and Louisville areas. The roster was 14 girls - 2 left over the summer because their parents did not like the coach, who is a task master. One of those girls was a very good player who played varsity as an 8th grader this fall. They brought in one new girl, who had been playing rec. Although a great kid, she is absolutely terrible. A couple of girls were invited to try out during the season but decided not to join because they or their parents felt the coach was too much of a screamer.

Now this coach is recognized as one of the best youth soccer coaches in Central KY. He’s had 3 children play college soccer and his youngest daughter plays for one of the best club teams in Cincinnati. He is tough and sarcastic but not abusive, in my opinion. He is very much a blood and guts type coach who prefers physical play and a fast pace. More on that later...

This fall the team played in the 2nd highest division, winning it handily despite having only 11 or 12 girls available for each game, as 3 freshmen players played varsity and were ineligible. Feeling a need for more competition to push the girls the coach wanted to move up to the KY Premier League. It was that or play nothing but tournaments which would be a major expense ( the girls typically play one fall and 2 spring tournaments as is - this scheme would have seen them playing 4 tourneys in fall and 4 in spring). Parents agreed and the team moved up to the KPL.

So it’s a 14 team roster, featuring 2 12 year-olds (my daughter turned 13 in early November). One girl left before the KPL season started to concentrate on volleyball. Another girl, who had skipped fall soccer for volleyball decided not to return for the KPL either. Yesterday a girl suffered a broken collarbone when cynically pushed from behind by a girl who had already been warned ( but not carded) for rough play. So it’s now 12 girls with a tournament in Memphis this weekend. The team they are playing come suburban Detroit, Chicago, St Louis, Dallas, Memphis and Cincinnati. They’ve lost their 3 KPL games by a combined score of 16 - 3.

I’ve come to the conclusion that the only reason they were put into the premier league was for the greater glory of the coach and the club and these girls are being set up for a horrible experience.
   832. spivey Posted: December 09, 2019 at 12:48 PM (#5907093)
Appreciate you sharing that ckash - I find these sorts of things interesting. I'm not very plugged in on this kind of thing, but is there really glory for the coach to get stomped every game at that level?

It sounds like maybe the team is at that cusp of being too good for the B league, but maybe not quite good enough for the A league? I identify with that from my own childhood.

This may be the hindsight talking, but I think there's value in the players getting to see both sides of it. Maybe some of the players and/or team will rise up to the new competition too? Or maybe there will be a few other teams like yours?

I don't have any kids though, so I'm sure some have better input there. As for the coach, my experience - for better or worse - is that the higher the tier the league, the tougher the coaches will be.
   833. ckash Posted: December 09, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5907102)
I think most of my frustration lies in that no new talent was brought in when the plan to move up a League was hatched. Because of politics 3 of the girls on the team are not select quality to begin with. The talent drain is pretty severe. My daughter has been an attacking player the last couple
of years but has been forced j to defense because the coach has to hide the poor players on the wings, up top and even midfield. Did I mention their coach also coaches a boys team in the same club? And their practices are concurrent with the idea that the girls can mentor the boys. And at our fall tournament both teams were in it and the coach tried to coach both teams at the same time in crucial matches but ended up deciding
70% of his attention to the boys. So the girls also seem to be treated as an afterthought.
   834. Mefisto Posted: December 09, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5907107)
831 sounds like youth soccer all right. Also most other sports at the higher levels.

I don't like it. IMO, coaches should be demanding but not abusive. They should *never* scream at the kids. Positive reinforcement works much better. If the player is simply not doing X (so that you can't reinforce it by praising the attempt), the right thing to do is to tell a player that you want to see X. If the situation comes up where X should be done, but the player doesn't try it, pull the player out immediately and explain (not yell) that you did so because of the failure to do X. Wait a few minutes and then put the player back in. Etc.

Playing harder teams is a big issue. Again IMO, teams should definitely play opponents who are a little bit better. Playing teams which are a lot better or a lot worse is useless. That said, Spivey's point is well-taken -- it can be hard to find that sweet spot.
   835. Mefisto Posted: December 09, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5907109)
And at our fall tournament both teams were in it and the coach tried to coach both teams at the same time in crucial matches but ended up deciding
70% of his attention to the boys. So the girls also seem to be treated as an afterthought.


That was my experience too, and it's why I insisted that ours be a girls-only club. I hoped that it has changed since I stepped down, but maybe it hasn't.
   836. ckash Posted: December 09, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5907116)
Another thing : the girls get no tactical instruction at practice. The coach tells someone to “play the 8” and let’s it go at that. Since the season has started they’ve used a 4-3-3. 4-4-2, 4-2-4, 3-4-3, 3-5-2 and 5-3-2. How many 13 or 14 year olds can process what an 8 is supposed to do in that many formations? The only constant we have is that the 6 is a destroyer but depending on who else he puts in midfield sometime her space isn’t covered when she’s off attempting to win the ball. If she fails it’s chaos because so much space is left open. I’ve never heard the coach address it, in game or practice.
   837. ckash Posted: December 09, 2019 at 01:23 PM (#5907119)
I’d be fine if some talent was added to replace what was lost when the premier league idea was floated. But none has and none is on the horizon. I don’t mind them losing but they are being physically destroyed - other teams have all 14 year olds and a full complement of players (18). Our girls just cannot compete with that.
   838. Mefisto Posted: December 09, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5907120)
Tactical instruction at young ages is a tough one. Generally speaking, the kids should be perfecting their skills (broadly defined) when younger. They can pick up tactics later. They do need to have a sense of what they're supposed to do in a given position, so telling someone to "play the 8" is useless. Even something as simple as "get the ball and pass it to the wingers" would be better.
   839. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5907243)
West Ham: still very bad.
   840. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2019 at 05:13 PM (#5907261)
It may be time to seriously start talking about relegation for West Ham. For a side picked to finish 10th in the league before the season started, they might actually be the biggest disappointment in the EPL this year. The remaining 3 teams they have not played yet are also not easy--home to Leicester and Liverpool, and away to Southampton. I wouldn't be shocked if they got 0 points from those games, and even 4 points would be a major achievement.

West Ham's remaining first 19 schedule is harder than all its competitors for last relegation spot. For reference, Villa's final 3 teams are Sheffield, Southampton, and Watford. Southampton's are West Ham, Villa, and Palace. Bournemouth has Chelsea, Burnley, and Brighton. Burnley has Newcastle, Bournemouth, and Manchester United. Brighton has Palace, Sheffield, and Bournemouth. (I'm not counting Everton as being a relegation rival yet, since they are too good not to be very likely to overcome their table position.)
   841. aberg Posted: December 09, 2019 at 07:26 PM (#5907295)
On days like today, it seems like Arsenal really shouldn't be that far from getting back to the top 4-6. If they sold Aubameyang or Lacazette and used that money to buy the best, most mobile central defender they could afford, that would be a big start. Then, cover however much of the salary is needed to get Ozil, Mustafi, and Luiz off the books. The remaining #9 can play with Pepe and some combination of Martinelli/Nelson/Willock (probably would've been better off keeping Iwobi). The FBs are fine. Xhaka, Guendouzi, Torreira, and Ceballos appear to be a decent MF group. They have that French defender coming in next season. Even if the best player they could afford for now is someone like Umtiti, it seems like that team should be miles better than the results they've had so far.
   842. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2019 at 08:57 PM (#5907314)
On days like today,


I'm not sure much can be read into it. West Ham may not necessarily be a terrible team, but they have been playing like one all year. All of the following sides beat them handily in xG: City, Brighton, Villa, United (who lost), Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Sheffield, Burnley, Tottenham, Chelsea (who also lost), and Wolves.
   843. The_Ex Posted: December 09, 2019 at 09:27 PM (#5907319)
West Ham are terrible. Southampton don't have much quality in their team. Norwich and Aston Villa are struggling to keep up. Bournemouth are in free fall, they have lots of injuries. Burnley are struggling, three losses in a row with a big negative run differential. Watford are poor.

How long until one of those teams jump on big Sam?
   844. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 09, 2019 at 10:03 PM (#5907331)
Who would have thought Steve Bruce has brought relative safety to Newcastle?
   845. spivey Posted: December 10, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5907368)
There are a lot of huge, huge matchups in the Champion's League today. In fact, as near as I can tell, every match has at least some bearing on who goes through.

Even in the Leipzig group, Benfica can make the EL with a thorough stomping of Zenit, which I imagine they'll be going for.

And Salzburg/Liverpool may be as much as I've looked forward to a group game that wasn't Tottenham at the Camp Nou.
   846. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5907393)
Two biggest games today are probably Salzburg/Liverpool and Ajax/Valencia. Tomorrow Shakhtar/Atalanta. In the late slot tomorrow there are many games (6), all of which except Bayern/Tottenham have some bearing on who advances in the CL or EL, but none particularly compelling. The most compelling mathchup might end up being Olympiacos/Red Star for an EL spot.
   847. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:07 PM (#5907469)
Napoli wastes no time getting on the board.
   848. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:30 PM (#5907480)
With Napoli up 2-0, it's clear now for Liverpool. A loss and they are out. A draw and they are second in the group. A win and they win the group.
   849. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:34 PM (#5907483)
It appears that Napoli will be holding up their end of the bargain as it is 3-0. Liverpool Salzburg still scoreless.

Edit: Arkadiusz Milik scored all three goals, the last of the three on a penalty.

coke to aunt Bea
   850. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5907486)
Cracking 1st half. Game could go either way, but Liverpool will have the most to rue after some really good chances untaken.
   851. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:05 PM (#5907501)
That's three HUGE chances for Salah gone begging now. The last didn't result in a shot but might have been the biggest of all.
   852. spivey Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5907503)
This is a hell of a match. Salzburg seems to play exactly like Liverpool, so it's pretty ####### compelling.
   853. spivey Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5907506)
Really don't like the goalkeeper coming out there. Just so hard to beat a fullspeed Mane to that ball and then the goal is wide open.
   854. spivey Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5907507)
See post 853, and then replace Mane with Salah.
   855. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5907508)
And now Salah puts that one in from the tightest of angles (for a right foot shot..., which is even more amazing for him) at near full speed. Salzburg won't give up, because they can score like mad, but if they open it up even more Liverpool will almost certainly have even more chances.

edit: b/c Salah is not a right footer... he just had to take it with his right on that play.
   856. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5907515)
538 will likely have Salzburg, Dortmund or Leverkusen as the best team in the EL. Chelsea will be the best if they don't advance. Inter is just a tad behind.

The betting odds are unlikely to be as favorable to Salzburg. They are likely to be closer to pure ELO, which also likes teams such as Manchester United, Arsenal, Valencia, Sevilla, and maybe Benfica, Porto, and Getafe.

edit: maybe close are also Roma, Gladbach, Wolves and the loser of Shakhtar/Atlalanta.
   857. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5907518)
Salzburg has lost a lot of steam since the Salah goal.
   858. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5907519)
Is Dortmund out officially or is it just inevitable that Barca will lose today since they're playing their B team?
   859. spivey Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:50 PM (#5907521)
People are writing Dortmund off to quick imo.

Barca's B team includes Vidal and Rakitic in midfield, both of whom are fresh and wanting more minutes and/or a move so will be motivated, Griezmann is playing at the top of the line, Lenglet is a top defender. Last year at the Camp Nou they also gave some of their best players about 30-45 minutes of run in the second half too. Inter is still the favorite, but I'd be surprised if Barcelona roll over.
   860. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5907523)
538 xG: Salzburg 0.7 - 3.9 Liverpool. By 538, Livrpool's second biggest xG margin of the year (Liverpool 3-1 Leicester was more).

Part of that was after 0-2, when you could forgive Salzburg for losing hope, but even before that Liverpool had the significantly better chances.
   861. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5907524)
(Didn't mean to write off Dortmund, which is why I also mentioned Inter.)

Inter is being given a 59% chance to win today. Dortmund 74%. (Not sure if Dortmund's lowish odds reflect them giving up if Inter gets up early by a couple of goals.) Inter is being given 65% chance to advance.
   862. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5907529)
Driving rain in London, which is bad for Chelsea, because the worse the elements, the less likely they are to be able to press their superiority. It's still very early, but if they can only manage a draw, they need help from Ajax.
   863. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5907536)
Chelsea, Valencia, Barcelona, and Dortmund all up 1-0.
   864. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5907541)
Chelsea now 2-0.

Ajax had the early chances, but as it stands they are dropping to Europa.
   865. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5907543)
late goals for Prague and Inter so we go to HT with both games tied 1-1
   866. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5907547)
Uh oh. We have the "partially unbroken" tie scenario if Leipzig and Benfica both win. Zenit/Lyon/Benfica finish level on 7 points.

Zenit goes in as second in the group on points achieved (head-to-head 3-way: Zenit 7, Benfica 6, Lyon 4). But who goes to the EL? It turns out, unlike the NFL tiebreakers, you don't reset to breaking ties among two teams immediately once the 3-way tie is broken (here, via head-to-head points achieved). If you did, Lyon would go to the EL on head-to-head GD against Benfica (step two below). Instead, you never get past step 1.

I definitely prefer the NFL method.

UEFA method
1. Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
2. Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
3. Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
4. Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
5. If more than two teams are tied, and after applying all head-to-head criteria above, a subset of teams are still tied, all head-to-head criteria above are reapplied exclusively to this subset of teams;

6. Goal difference in all group matches;
7. Goals scored in all group matches;
8. Away goals scored in all group matches;
9. Wins in all group matches;
10. Away wins in all group matches;
11. Disciplinary points (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
12. UEFA club coefficient.


NFL method:
If three teams are tied for one playoff spot and the third team is eliminated at any step, the tie breaker reverts to step one for the remaining two teams. If multiple playoff spots are at stake, the rules are applied in order until the first team qualifies, then the process is started again for the remaining teams.
   867. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 03:58 PM (#5907548)
Gah Dortmund. They can't do anything about the Inter game, but they should be taking care of business at home. I haven't seen a minute of the game, but the basic statistics look very even so far.
   868. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5907551)
Ajax putting in Dest, and taking out a holding midfielder.
   869. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5907554)
St. Petersburg will be playing with 10 men so if Benfica needs to run up the score here's their chance
   870. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5907556)
Anyone know how many goals Benfica would theoretically need to make things interesting?
   871. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5907559)
Benfica gets a second against Zenit. That's important, because if Lyon can manage to get a draw against Leipzig (they are only down 1 now), Benfica would get the head-to-head over Zenit for Europa with a 2-0 win, but not a 1-0 or 2-1 win. Zenit would be out completely.
   872. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5907561)
Benfica is eliminated from the CL. A 2-0 win gets them Europa. Any win, combined with a Lyon loss, also gets them Europa.

Dortmund got a goal! And Lukaku put a huge chance right at the keeper. Nice save.
   873. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5907564)
Oh I see thank you!
   874. KronicFatigue Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5907566)
Probably too late to be mentioning this, but Cheslea's match is streaming free on B/R live.

What's the makeup of Barca's bench / b team? I can't picture the venn diagram where "players cool with sitting on Barca's bench all season" and "players barca wants on their bench" intersects. Really young guys with potential should be loaned out by Barca, unless they think very highly of their training sessions. Even from a money issue, Barca would probably want to spend money on their XI (or top 15) like every other club.
   875. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5907570)
Dortmund red card! YIKES
   876. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5907571)
Wow. Ajax committed what on another day might have been DOGSO on the edge of the box, after a nice touch from Valencia released the forward. Yellow only. Lots of arguing and milling about by the players, and one more yellow to each side for complaining (I think).
   877. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5907572)
Julian Weigl gets sent off for two yellows 11 minutes apart. Dortmund will try to cling to their 1 goal lead down a man. And pray for help from Barca just in case
   878. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5907573)
Goal for Lille as well. Chelsea better watch it. With Valencia winning they can't afford to draw.
   879. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5907574)
Two goals called back for Inter. Both clearly offside.
   880. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5907576)
And Lyon did get their goal. As it stands now, Lyon to the CL, Benfica to Europa, Zenit out.

edit: I wonder if they are just kicking the ball around in their own halves in that Lyon/Leipzig game. A draw gets Leipzig group winner and Lyon 2nd spot. Maybe they are both happy with that.

edit2: Barca with a goal! It's all fallen apart for Inter.
   881. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5907579)
I guess now Inter will focus their full strength on winning the Scudetto and Juventus will be gunning for a champions league trophy.
   882. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5907581)
2 minutes left in the Ajax/Valencia game. Valencia player clears it for a corner, then falls in a heap dramatically, clutching his back (time wasting). Ajax player tries to pull him up. so he jumps up, chest out, and proceeds to headbutt the Ajax player (I think). Red card. Last minutes are going to be 11 on 10, with Ajax needing a goal to advance.

edit: but no luck. Valencia holds on to win the group. Ajax to Europa.
   883. aberg Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5907582)
Wow, it looks like Zenit seriously imploded.
   884. Baldrick Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5907583)
Valencia winning that group is absolutely ridiculous.

I think that's the first time I've watched them this year. They were...not very impressive.
   885. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 05:01 PM (#5907585)
Valencia was not very good today. They outplayed Chelsea in the last game though, and they may have outplayed Ajax when they played them at home, despite the 0-3 scoreline.

Ajax was 2nd best in xG in every group game so far (even the ones against Lille!) until today, which is horribly ironic. I'm not at all convinced they are better than Valencia over all.

Chelsea is better than Valencia for sure.

Groups E, F, and G all ended up playing out exactly as betting odds would have suggested (from 1-4). The only one that didn't was group H, where Chelsea was the clear favorite, and Valencia was considered basically even with Ajax coming in.

edit: for all Ajax's final third possession, they couldn't manage good shots. They had the better of xG by only 1.3-1.0 (according to 538).
   886. aberg Posted: December 10, 2019 at 05:04 PM (#5907588)
Top goal differentials in the four groups that have finished:

Napoli +7 (2nd in group)
Ajax +6 (3rd in group)
Lpool/Barca +5 (won groups)
   887. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5907589)
Dortmund was very lucky to advance. Inter had many chances that just missed, including the called back goals, and Dortmund apparently played no defense today. Could easily have lost.
   888. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 05:06 PM (#5907591)
Napoli and Ajax were not near the top in xGD. And they also aren't near as good as Liverpool or Chelsea.
   889. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 05:20 PM (#5907594)
I need to move to Europe so I don't have to work during all the Champions League games. :)
   890. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 05:25 PM (#5907595)
Actually, on review, Napoli and Liverpool weren't too far apart in xGD, though according to 538 Liverpool was better, and first in the group. Ajax was very bad though by xGD.
   891. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2019 at 05:41 PM (#5907597)
Russia's no good year in Europe gets worse. At it stands, they are very unlikely to have a single team remaining in Europe after the group stage. Portugal looks likely to have 4 teams advancing in Europa, and have already passed Russia for 6th ranked team (after the big 4 plus France). It wasn't that long ago they were pushing at France for the 5th spot.
   892. Mefisto Posted: December 10, 2019 at 08:46 PM (#5907625)
Ancelotti now available.
   893. jmurph Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:18 AM (#5907687)
Ancelotti now available.

Lots of Arsenal rumors last night.
   894. Mefisto Posted: December 11, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5907767)
I would think Everton too.
   895. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 11, 2019 at 01:01 PM (#5907803)
Just saw a link: "Ferguson to oversee Everton at Man United" and it legitimately froze my brain for like 5 seconds. The bastards had to know what they were doing there.
   896. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 11, 2019 at 01:27 PM (#5907814)
Zagreb with a gorgeously-timed volley to take the lead. City has all the possession but few clear-cut chances yet. Judging by the way Pep is huddled forlorn on the touchline, maybe none of the City players really want to be there. A Zagreb win knocks out Atlanta no matter what they do.

Shakhtar has the better of Atalanta early anyway--it's mostly one way traffic. A goal called back for an offside by inches as well.
   897. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 11, 2019 at 01:33 PM (#5907819)
City equalizes with a Zagreb defender lying on the pitch. Much pushing and shoving ensued. Maybe that's the end of the dream for Zagreb.
   898. aberg Posted: December 11, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5907823)
Ancelotti now available.

Lots of Arsenal rumors last night.


Arsenal seem too early in their rebuild to bring in Ancelotti. He seems like the guy to keep the egos in line when you have all the good players, not actually get/develop the good players.
   899. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5907837)
Nobody ##### with the Jesus ...
   900. jmurph Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5907839)
Arsenal seem too early in their rebuild to bring in Ancelotti. He seems like the guy to keep the egos in line when you have all the good players, not actually get/develop the good players.

I go back and forth on this kind of thing. I think you're right about his fit with that kind of team. But then again, while they're not United or City or the Spanish giants, they're an enormous, rich team, who should maybe just sign some very expensive, already great players? Which is the type of team he's always managed.

That said, I don't watch Napoli closely, it's certainly possible he's just past his prime.
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