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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

OT- Soccer Thread- October 2019

Hey, when I have to submit the thread we get a bad intro, that’s just how it works.

jmurph Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:55 PM | 1125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   901. jmurph Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5907840)
Arsenal seem too early in their rebuild to bring in Ancelotti. He seems like the guy to keep the egos in line when you have all the good players, not actually get/develop the good players.

I go back and forth on this kind of thing. I think you're right about his fit with that kind of team. But then again, while they're not United or City or the Spanish giants, they're an enormous, rich team, who should maybe just sign some very expensive, already great players? Which is the type of team he's always managed.

That said, I don't watch Napoli closely, it's certainly possible he's just past his prime.

(reposted for the flip)
   902. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5907842)
Atalanta with a clear second yellow foul on the edge of the box. Foul given but no card. Shakhtar is in disbelief--that would have probably been all they needed since a draw gets them through now.
   903. manchestermets Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5907847)
And now Atalanta score with a VAR offside special.
   904. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5907848)
Maybe it's Atalanta's day. So far the breaks have all gone their way. In a closely contested game that might end up being the difference.
   905. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:32 PM (#5907852)
Now Shakhtar playing with 10 men
   906. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5907855)
Dodo has been hot after the second yellow wasn't given to Atalanta, and now gets a red. VAR doesn't check and off he goes. It was a poke in the eye, but didn't seem that bad on replay. Maybe there was intent? Dodo didn't complain much, so maybe something happened.

Have to say, this game is not leaving a good taste in my mouth.

edit: falling apart now... straight in from the foul at the corner flag (or no, there was a touch).
   907. manchestermets Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5907858)
Poke in the eye is an oversell. The commentators here are suggesting it's a strict liability sending off - the arm was up and the hand made contact, however slight with the face.
   908. manchestermets Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:38 PM (#5907859)
There's going to be some excellent booing at the end of this one.
   909. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:38 PM (#5907860)
The commentators here are suggesting it's a strict liability sending off
This isn't really true though, is it? Some Zagreb guy in the game today threw a hard elbow into Rodrigo's face and stayed on.
   910. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:41 PM (#5907863)
Add this group to the others that played true to betting odds predictions, 1 through 4.

edit: the remaining groups might also finish true to prediction: it would just take Leverkusen (likely), Olympiacos (50/50) and Galatasaray (unlikely) getting the Europa spots.
   911. aberg Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5907869)
Pretty cool for Atalanta to rebound from their miserable group start and advance over Donetsk Dontell.
   912. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 11, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5907887)
Oh, Moussa Sissoko, LOL.
   913. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5907909)
This was likely always going to be the problem with the late games today. PSG and Real Madrid are too good for their opponents. Atletico was going to be fine against Moscow (rendering the Leverkusen game meaningless), and the Bayern/Spurs game was completely meaningless. The last tiny bit of drama is Olympiacos/Red Star.
   914. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5907912)
Leverkusen is about to end up unseeded in the Europa draw, along with Olympiacos/Red star, Brugge, and Shakhtar. The seeded teams will be Ajax, Benfica, Salzburg, and Inter.
   915. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 04:46 PM (#5907914)
Well that handball call for a late penalty was fully deserved, under any interpretation of the rule, pretty much ever, Olympiacos takes the lead late.
   916. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 11, 2019 at 04:46 PM (#5907915)
Very confused and disappointed with Jose's lineups and substitutions today.

The #### is the point of bringing Parrott to Germany to park his ass on the bench while Moura and Son get more minutes?
   917. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5907919)
So that's that. Virtually no upsets of any significance in any group. Valencia was a very small underdog to Ajax (51/49 or something) but qualified over them, but did manage to win the group. Brugge took the third spot over Galatasary, technically on the strength of their shock draw in Madrid, but they had the higher scoring road draw of the two draws against Galatasaray, which turned out to be all they would have needed to get an EL spot.

That's a lot of games (96) for little payoff.
   918. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 11, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5907922)
4 teams from England and Spain advance
3 teams from Italy and Germany advance
2 teams from France advance
   919. frannyzoo Posted: December 11, 2019 at 05:38 PM (#5907934)
My plan to root for Atalanta to advance by not watching and downplaying its possibility has worked, but it appears from this thread that some form of what they call "maletas" in Spain might have been involved. I don't know what to think about that, but am thinking about the draw/knock-outs with zero consideration of how this came to pass presently.
   920. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 11, 2019 at 07:28 PM (#5907957)
Champions league betting odds! (Since we are between rounds prior to the draw, maybe the best gauge of expected team strength. Runners up have it much harder in the round of 16 though.)

Man. City 22.5%
Liverpool 15.5%
Barcelona 12.5%
PSG 11%
Bayern 10.5%
Juventus 6.5%
Real Madrid 5.5% (maybe considered as good as Juve or slightly better, but finished second)
Atletico 3.5%
Tottenham 3.5%
Chelsea 3%
Dortmund 1.5%
Napoli 1.5%
Leipzig 1.5%
Atalanta 0.5%
Valencia 0.5%
Lyon 0.5%
   921. Richard Posted: December 11, 2019 at 08:20 PM (#5907966)
4 teams from England and Spain advance
3 teams from Italy and Germany advance
2 teams from France advance


Exactly as the design of the competition intends.

What a tedious competition this is.
   922. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:23 AM (#5908034)
That's a lot of games (96) for little payoff.

Pretty sure the teams and leagues cashing the checks disagree!
   923. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5908040)
Very confused and disappointed with Jose's lineups and substitutions today.


Well #### you too!

Oh, Mourinho...never mind.
   924. spivey Posted: December 12, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5908113)
Juve were out xG'ed by Bayern Leverkusen yesterday, and their GD in Italy is like 5th or 6th. I'm kind of convinced they're not actually that good, and I think their betting odds are way overstated. Obviously, as a Tottenham fan I'm rooting to get Valencia, but I'm not sure Juventus is better than Leipzig. I would be totally fine playing Juve in the round of 16.
   925. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5908171)
Well, to be fair to the betting odds, Juve is currently given the lowest odds of any group winner except Leipzig and Valencia. I think I'd rather play Leipzig but not by a large margin.

Juve really hasn't looked at all dominating since the start of 2019. They played pretty poorly in Serie A but overperformed in the second half of last season and to some extent this year too, and they had one good game (out of four) in the CL knockout rounds last year. They didn't look very good in the group stage this year either.
   926. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5908177)
Frankfurt takes a shock deficit at home to eliminated Guimaraes. A loss and they would need Arsenal's help against Liege, which is a dicey position to be in these days. Even a draw might not be enough for Frankfurt, if Liege ends up beating Arsenal by 2 or 3.
   927. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5908192)
Frankfurt turned it around (2-1 now), so as it stands Arsenal needs to win today to win the group.

Lazio had to win today and get help from Celtic, so of course they are losing at halftime to eliminated Rennes. Big uphill climb for them right now.

LASK looks like they might win the group over Sporting, which was not at all expected coming into the group stage.
'
Kyiv just needed a home win against minnows Lugano to advance, but are shockingly down at the half.

Getafe goes out with a loss, and they were supposed to win easily playing at home. Still 0-0 at the half though, so they are taking a risk.

Playing for pride, eliminated Rosenborg is beating eliminated PSV on the road. Rosenborg is the only team left without a point, so would love a win or even a draw today.

edit: for those that don't know, Malmo and Copenhagen are separated only by a bridge (the Bridge, if you know the Danish tv series). They were supposed to be playing for a spot in the Europa KOs today, but Kyiv losing means they might both go through. Shades of Sweden/Denmark playing a 2-2 draw at the 2004 Euros, and finishing the game kicking the ball around after Italy failed to beat Bulgaria by 2 goals, and a 2-2 draw was enough for both to advance.
   928. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5908205)
Oops it was worse than I remembered. Tie breakers were head to head between tied teams. Italy had already drawn Denmark 0-0 and Sweden 1-1, and both had beaten Bulgaria. So a 2-2 draw was enough to send both Sweden and Denmark through no matter what Italy did against Bulgaria. Sweden drew level late in the game and then both teams stopped playing.
   929. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5908218)
2-0 Liege now. Arsenal has to pull 3 back or hope Frankfurt drops into a draw with Guimaraes. Both very unlikely, so Arsenal are going to finish second in the group.

The crowd in Belgium are rooting for the additional 3 goals for their side that would put Liege ahead of Arsenal. That's probably even more unlikely.

edit: Celtic now down 2-0 to Cluj. The game means nothing to Celtic since they already won the group, but even a draw would eliminate Lazio, so that's probably the end for Lazio.
   930. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:41 PM (#5908231)
Madness in the Arsenal group. Arsenal pull 2 goals back, so only need one more to win the group. And then Frankfurt gives up a late goal to Guimaraes, which would mean Arsenal would win the group even with a loss. Also means Liege is going to rue letting Arsenal getting back into this one.

edit: even more madness. Guimaraes scores yet again. Now a single goal by Liege sends out Frankfurt. Crowd in Belgium knows the score in Germany, and are roaring for their team to get the goal they need.
   931. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5908238)
Arsenal saved Frankfurt's bacon after all by coming back down from 0-2. That was unexpected. Arsenal ended up top of the group.

Getafe never looked too much in danger, and ended up with an easy 3-0 win. Still finished second to Basel and could be a tough match for someone in the round of 32.

Kyiv crapped out with an embarrassing 0-1 loss home to Lugano. Both Bridge teams advance.

LASK with the 3-0 win over Sporting to surprisingly top the group. Sporting also might be a tough(ish) matchup for someone.

Lazio out with a mighty whimper. They were crap this whole tournament.

Rosenborg held on for a 1-1 draw. Now they only have to share the honors of worst performing team with Trabzonspor.

In more important news. Dudelange gets a second group result on the road! Draw at Qarabag.

edit: apparently Kyiv got a goal somewhere to draw 1-1, but they needed a win so are still out. xG was 3.4 - 0.6 (538). What a way to be eliminated.
   932. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5908248)
Porto already 2-0 up against Feyenord. That means Rangers needs at least a draw to advance, and a win to top the group.

edit: spoke to soon. It's now 2-2 in Porto, just 25 minutes in.
   933. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5908267)
Porto leading again at halftime, but so are Rangers, so those two look to be in good shape. Rangers could be a surprise group winner.

Roma is wrapping things up at home against Wolfsberger. If they hold on to at least draw, then Gladbach can't afford to lose to Basaksehir. 1-1 at the half in Germany.

Wolves and Braga are both in, and both games are level at the half. Wolves could still top the group but they need a win and some help.

Manchester United playing a fully rotated side except Maguire and Martial. A draw gets them top of the group. Still scoreless.
   934. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5908279)
Terrible no call on a United foul in the attacking third and as a result United get a good look at goal. Greenwood puts it away for 0-2. Yellow for Alkmaar for dissent, to add insult to injury. No VAR in Europa so that's that. United will top the group.

Wolves take the lead as well (with Braga still 1-1), so at the moment the EPL teams will all top their groups.
   935. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5908294)
Gladbach just hanging on. 3 very good chances for Basaksehir with the game still 1-1.

Braga has come from behind twice to take the lead in their game, so it may not be Wolves' day after all (though Jota has a hat trick and they are well up).
   936. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5908298)
Gladbach puts a clean header right at the keeper from 3 yards. Basaksehir punishes them at the other end! 1-2 now and Gladbach is on their way out. If these scores hold up, Basaksehir will winthe group with Roma second.

And Gladbach hits the post! No luck though.
   937. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5908301)
Crazy finish in Germany, and frankly a terrible loss for Gladbach to put them out. At least now they can focus on the league.

Rangers gave up a late own goal and got a second yellow, but managed to hold on for the draw. Porto won though, so Rangers finishes second.

Gent holds on for the win and first place, so Germany's Wolfsburg has to settle for second.

Surprising Ferencvaros got a late equalizer, but they needed a win against Razgrad so it's not enough. Razgrad finishes second in the group.

Braga held on, so Wolves settle for second in the group. United wins their group.


16 unseeded teams in Europa, and a surprising number of them are quite decent (for Europa). You'd probably want to avoid Leverkusen, Roma, Getafe, Wolves, and Frankfurt, at the very least.

Manchester Untied is the favorite right now by betting odds. Worst team remaining is probably Cluj, but there are a few others that may not be much better, including teams that won their group, such as Basaksehir and Malmo.


edit: only one team was truly hard done by in the late games. Ferencvaros (Hungary) apparently dominated the dangerous possession and xG, in the road, but could only finish with a draw when they needed a win. Nice showing by what would have been the least fancied team in the KO round.

edit2: Arguably Gladbach had some hard luck as well, but even though overall they probably had the better chances on balance, they didn't dominate a much weaker team at home in a game they couldn't afford to lose, so they deserve their fate.

   938. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 05:44 PM (#5908314)
Gladbach is being given 50/50 odds of a top 4 finish in the Bundesliga (Bayern/Leipzig are very high, Dortmund pretty high, and the rest is split between the remaining teams, but mostly Gladbach, then Leverkusen, then Schalke), so missing out on the EL KOs might be the best thing for them in the long run.
   939. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 08:16 PM (#5908340)
Europa odds (unseeded teams are at a slight disadvantage, but not as much as for the CL): (numbers are percentage chance to win)

--favorites--
Man. United 12
Arsenal 11
Sevilla 9.5
Inter 8.5
Ajax 7.5

--challengers--
Salzburg 5.5
Roma 5.5 (unseeded)
Wolves 5 (unseeded)

--little to no shot--
Porto 3
Leverkusen 3 (unseeded)
Shakhtar 2.5 (unseeded)
Benfica 2.5
Frankfurt 2.5 (unseeded)
Espanyol 2
Celtic 2
Wolfsburg 2 (unseeded)
Getafe 2 (unseeded)
Sporting 2 (unseeded)

--need a prayer--
Rangers 1.5 (unseeded)
Basel 1.5
Olympiacos 1.5 (unseeded)
Braga 1.5
Brugge 1 (unseeded)
Razgrad 1 (unseeded)
Alkmaar 1 (unseeded)
Copenhagen 1 (unseeded)

--in their dreams--
Gent 0.7
Basaksehir 0.5
Malmo 0.5
LASK 0.5
Cluj 0.5 (unseeded)
APOEL 0.2 (unseeded)



   940. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:17 PM (#5908349)
The betting odds say a non-top 4 has a greater than 1 in 3 shot at Europa this year. That seems a little high, considering Spain or England have won the past 8 in a row. Even going back to 1972, top 4 have won 73%.

538 is even more bullish on non-top 4, putting them at 45% !! (That seems nuts.)
   941. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 12, 2019 at 10:53 PM (#5908366)
Monday’s Champion League Draw today! (Using the CL Simulator);

Dortmund-Paris
Real Madrid-Juventus
Atlético-Liverpool
Atalanta-Valencia
Lyon-Bayern
Chelsea-Leipzig
Napoli-Man City
Tottenham-Barcelona
   942. spivey Posted: December 13, 2019 at 09:25 AM (#5908402)
Simeone seems like a great manager, but Atletico has wasted a whole lot of money the last few years.

That said, I think Cavani has a little bit more good football in him, and Dani Olmo looks like a guy that could be world class in a couple of years. Those would be good pickups.

Minamino looked great for RB Salzburg in the CL. He ran circles around Liverpool's midfield, which is one of the hardest midfields in the world to do that to. It'd be really annoying if he goes to Liverpool for like 7 million pounds as has been rumored. I'd love to have him on Tottenham.
   943. Mefisto Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:01 AM (#5908411)
Screwed up the link.
   944. Mefisto Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:02 AM (#5908412)
   945. jmurph Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5908419)
Klopp signed an extension through 2024.
   946. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 13, 2019 at 04:24 PM (#5908576)
Any double pivot podcast listeners here? I'm pretty sure it's gonna be good but I just subscribed and haven't had a chance to listen yet.
   947. Mefisto Posted: December 13, 2019 at 06:46 PM (#5908603)
Somebody (manchestermets?) asked about Fred and turnovers. Here's the Statsbomb radar map for Fred.

ETA: Well, that link didn't really work. It only takes you to the main Statsbomb page. Just scroll down a bit to see Fred's map.
   948. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 14, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5908663)
Announcers see the Mane goal on first replay and say "oh, he's off. won't count". Then they show the VAR lines from a different angle and they say "clearly on. goal will stand." Then they draw the lines, and Mane's knees was offside all along, just as they saw on the original view from the other angle.
   949. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 14, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5908668)
Another game where Liverpool plays just well enough to win, with some help from poor finishing by Watford. It's not that these performances aren't good enough to earn wins, it's that they aren't nearly good enough to justify them winning every single game. It's a crazy run.
   950. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 14, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5908675)
Color guy: Does VAR check if a ball is in the quadrant on a corner kick?
PBP Guy: No.
CG: Why not?
PBP: Don’t ask me, I don’t know.

It was funnier as it was spoken.

Color guy then picks up by saying Tim Krul’s own goal was “cruel on Norwich.”
   951. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 14, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5908681)
Bournemouth scores finally. I have only watched bits of this game, but Chelsea seemed quite vulnerable in the snippets I saw.
   952. Richard Posted: December 14, 2019 at 12:01 PM (#5908683)
Blades 2 Villa 0. Villa very defensive and did not have a shot on target. They got a penalty (via VAR) but Grealish hit the bar.

2 goals for John Fleck. What a season he’s having.
   953. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 14, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5908685)
Chelsea probably only around 50/50 to be top 4 now, after this cold streak.

Leicester also was unable to beat relegation-bound Norwich at home. Lots of shots, but few good chances.

Great performance by Sheffield United. They totally stifled Villa until they were up 2-0, and then Villa missed their only real chance of the game (a pen).

Also, Barcelona dropped points again. By the statistics it looks like they were very poor and were lucky to draw.
   954. manchestermets Posted: December 14, 2019 at 12:14 PM (#5908687)
#947 Thanks for that.
   955. manchestermets Posted: December 14, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5908688)
The BBC's "analysts" talking about this season's "new rule" that players should keep playing until the whistle blows in regard to the Bournemouth goal. "Play to the whistle" is one of the very first things you're told as a child when you start playing, or it was 40 years ago when I first started playing at school anyway.
   956. spivey Posted: December 14, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5908691)
Great day for the chasers in the PL today.
   957. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 14, 2019 at 01:10 PM (#5908697)
Yes, play until the whistle is part of the fundamentals. If you can't figure that much out, you will never make it anywhere.
   958. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 15, 2019 at 10:53 AM (#5908787)
Duncan Ferguson ain’t going to be shy. He brought Kean on in the 71st minute then took him off in the 89th. Ouch.
   959. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 15, 2019 at 10:58 AM (#5908788)
United looked plenty good enough to win, but played from behind all game after an own goal off of a corner. Settled for a draw. Still were not as creative in attack as you would like (without Pogba), but defensively were very strong. Dominated the shot and non-shot xG (as well as all the traditional stats).
   960. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 15, 2019 at 11:09 AM (#5908791)
Really good defensive performance by Spurs. Wolves dominated possession but didn't really create any good chances, xG for the game was pretty much even. Of course it did take a lot of tactical fouling on Traore, Spurs couldn't deal with him at all.
   961. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 15, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5908793)
Betting odds (and 538 as well) had Wolfsburg hosting Gladbach as virtually 50/50. Only saw the last 25 minutes, during which Wolfsburg was the far more confident and dangerous. They just got a late winner in injury time, not long after the crowd was viciously jeering a Gladbach player down, because they wanted their team to have time to get the winner they felt they deserved.
   962. Mefisto Posted: December 15, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5908794)
Still were not as creative in attack as you would like


That's been the issue with United for quite a while. They're dangerous on a fast break, but they can't break down a set defense.
   963. spivey Posted: December 15, 2019 at 11:40 AM (#5908797)
Longform thoughts on the Tottenham/Wolves match. In general, it was an uncomfortable watch, but understat had Tottenham winning xG 0.99-0.72. Given that they are good and the exact kind of team we struggle with, that's a good result.

This isn't exactly a novel thought, but long term either the formation or the players at Tottenham need to change. The ease at which teams play through our lines is really breathtaking. Son and Moura are very good players, but can both go through long stretches where they're not tracking back, allowing us to get overloaded in the wide spaces, as well as there just being huge gaps of space between the double pivot and the attacking band. And our fullbacks are not capable of handling that, it was pretty disappointing to see how much Vertonghen was left on an island and I thought he acquitted himself as well as could be expected. I understand that Mourinho likes the idea of Dier, but he's a full second slow on everything, and was turned with ease on multiple occasions in the first half (as was Aurier, who seems incapable of defending a give and go). The double pivot need to be way quicker and intelligent at cutting down passing angles if we're playing a 4-2-3-1, and they're not. That said, the back 3 of Verts, Alderweireld, and Sanchez did a really good job of blocking off angles for shots as the last line of defense and not allowing any high xG opportunities, save the one Jimenez chance in the first half. Sanchez's ability to defend in space and catch attackers who are on a breakaway is really nice and for me mostly makes up some of his flaws.

Going the other way, our back 6 so susceptible to a press. The passing and giveaways from Sanchez, Aurier, Dier, and Sissoko are getting really old - there was a good 30 minute stretch towards the end of the first half where Tottenham could not get the ball. Sissoko had a terrible skyed backpass this game that Sanchez poorly tried to chest trap that was very similar to what he did at the end of the Bournemouth game. You just can't do that sort of thing. Against good teams he will always be a liability. Dier's passing actually seemed well above normal especially in the second half, though he had a couple of passes where he put front guys in a tough spot. My issue with him is more physical, though his positional defending was not bad.

Short term maybe we can challenge for top 4 on the back of our attacking players and CBs, but many games are going to require heroic defending from the back line. Son was anonymous and it was one of the worst performances I've seen from him in a while.

Unrelated to the game, but has NBC recently done way more zooming in on people during the match? I feel like there were a dozen scenarios where a play developed with no camera on the game.
   964. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 15, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5908798)
De Bruyne is a great player, and took a great goal early. Arsenal sure made it as easy as possible for him on that latest assist though. Sheesh.
   965. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 15, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5908802)
Yeah Dier just isn't good enough anymore. Hopefully Ndombele gets fully healthy because I feel like generally it will be him and Sissoko.

KDB is ridiculous. Could already have a hat trick but Leno made an amazing save.
   966. spivey Posted: December 15, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5908803)
Tottenham should see if they can get DeBruyne this summer.
   967. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 15, 2019 at 12:35 PM (#5908806)
Last year was a crazy aberration. It was always very likely that 90 points would win the EPL, even with two all time great teams, one of which is still probably the best in the world (City).

Even with all their struggles this year, all the top 9, except woeful Arsenal, are in the top 8 of xPoints. And the top 4 spots are taken by teams that were from the expected top 6 (Spurs are still behind Wolves and Leicester). It wouldn't surprise me to see Spurs and United ahead of Leicester at the end of the season either, but that might be a 50/50 proposition at this point. It still could get worse for Arsenal. Their final two remaining games of the first "half" (not including the 12/26 game, since it properly belongs to the second half of the season) are Everton away and Chelsea at home.

xPoints takes into account pens and OGs, but it's pretty clear that pens are to some degree a skill (top of the table teams are on average much better at penalty differentials). Witness Arsenal's atrocious tackling at the back line (given up 5 pens this year) versus AWB's precision tackles in the box today (0 pens this year so far given up by United), and it doesn't make sense to chalk it all up to luck. Same is true on the offensive end of course. Leicester is ahead of United on non-pen xGD, but pretty much even with them if you regress 50/50.
   968. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 15, 2019 at 12:39 PM (#5908807)
In one of the biggest games of the day, Alkmaar defeated Ajax 1-0 to draw level on points in the Eredivisie. Ajax is still the better team, but they are not the same team as last year, and seemingly Alkmaar is much better than expected.
   969. spivey Posted: December 16, 2019 at 09:06 AM (#5908908)
CL draws are out.

An almost perfect set of draws from a standpoint of exciting matches, though Atalanta/Valencia will guarantee one weak team through to the quarters.

Leipzig/Tottenham should be a very fair matchup. City/Real should be fun. Chelsea/Bayern could also be pretty good.
   970. spivey Posted: December 16, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5908914)
Juve get the best draw of the grouper winners - vs. Lyon, who had two of their players tear their ACLs this weekend, including Memphis (which is also bad news for Netherlands).
   971. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 09:37 AM (#5908916)
Except for Tottenham, the EPL teams had pretty much the hardest matchups they could get.

The highest rated seeded team (City) against the highest unseeded (Real Madrid).
Second highest rated seeded team (Liverpool) against the second highest unseeded (Atletico).

   972. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5908918)
Top 4 teams in Europa all have easy draws and really should advance. That includes Arsenal/Olympiacos but I guess you never know with Arsenal.

Ajax/Getafe could be interesting. Salzburg/Frankfurt won't be easy for Salzburg. Wolves/Espanyol could be a challenge for Wolves.

Rangers and Celtic got easy draws and could potentially both advance.

   973. spivey Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:05 AM (#5908923)
Olympiacos have some dangerous attackers and asked questions of Tottenham's backline. Given that Arsenal's backline is even worse, I don't think that's a gimme draw.
   974. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5908927)
Definitely not a gimme. But aside from Inter (Razgrad) and Sevilla (Cluj), no teams are higher favorites to advance than Arsenal and Manchester United. If Arsenal can't beat Olympiacos they are in pretty bad shape indeed.
   975. jmurph Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5908932)
It's not that these performances aren't good enough to earn wins, it's that they aren't nearly good enough to justify them winning every single game. It's a crazy run.

They're currently "overperforming" xPts by more than Leicester did in their title-winning season. What a start to the season.
   976. spivey Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:26 AM (#5908935)
By the end of that season, Leicester was actually pretty good.
   977. jmurph Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5908936)
Oh absolutely, they were very good. No knock intended to either team.
   978. jmurph Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5908938)
Twitter seems certain Arsenal will hire Arteta shortly- there are pictures of their execs leaving his house at 1am.
   979. jmurph Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:49 AM (#5908944)
I maintain that Arsenal really need to hire a guy like Ancelotti and spend a sh1tload of money on players who are already good. Then the next guy can be the Arteta type to (theoretically) lead them for however many years.
   980. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5908971)
538 has Olympiacos favored over Arsenal in the round of 32, whereas betting odds has it as one of the bigger mismatches. Why the difference? It''s pretty much a perfect storm for why 538 rankings are not very good.

First, they overweight recency by a lot. In part they seem to do this because they can't make interleague adjustments mid-season. So Arsenal, who have certainly been playing poorly of late, are given a lower ranking than would be given by bettors.

Second, they overweight the lesser leagues. For example, this year prior to the draw they had non-big 4 (5 since France isn't in the Europa KOs) as winning Europa just 55% of the time, which seems historically dubious, and even more so under the current format.

Third, they appear not to regress the results from lesser leagues (e.g., Eredivisie and Greece Super League) for which they don't have xG data. These games seem to put all the weight on actual GD. Doing it that way tends to overrate the top teams in these leagues versus the leagues with xG data, because xG data acts as a natural regressing variable generally. Top teams in most leagues on average have a higher actual GD than xGD. It appears likely that 538 is just triple counting actual GD in the lesser leagues, which boosts the top teams in these leagues.

538 has Arsenal and Olympiacos as both slightly above average Europa teams, whereas betting odds have Arsenal as one of the best Europa teams and Olympiacos in the bottom third (basically behind every team in the top 4 leagues, plus the Portuguese teams and Ajax/Salzburg/Shakhtar).

   981. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 16, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5908997)
When people bet on Champions League knock out stages, do they generally bet on the individual legs or on who will advance? I'm sure you can do either but what is the more popular option would you guess?
   982. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5909029)
When people bet on Champions League knock out stages, do they generally bet on the individual legs or on who will advance? I'm sure you can do either but what is the more popular option would you guess?
I think betting on games themselves. I have no real knowledge, but if you look at the lines these seem the tightest and have the most bookies on them. Also, in pretty much every sport, purely anecdotally it seems betting on an individual game always has the most action.

edit: not being a sports bettor anymore the lines on individual CL KO games out of a head-to-head doesn't really interest me, which is why I seldom quote them.
   983. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 16, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5909038)
Gotcha, thank you. Helpful as usual.
   984. spivey Posted: December 16, 2019 at 02:55 PM (#5909044)
538 has Olympiacos favored over Arsenal in the round of 32, whereas betting odds has it as one of the bigger mismatches. Why the difference? It''s pretty much a perfect storm for why 538 rankings are not very good.

First, they overweight recency by a lot. In part they seem to do this because they can't make interleague adjustments mid-season. So Arsenal, who have certainly been playing poorly of late, are given a lower ranking than would be given by bettors.

Second, they overweight the lesser leagues. For example, this year prior to the draw they had non-big 4 (5 since France isn't in the Europa KOs) as winning Europa just 55% of the time, which seems historically dubious, and even more so under the current format.


I think it's both a blessing and a curse they do it this way. I'd need to see more data on how off it is. Using clubelo (rather than betting odds, which are probably the best proxy), clubelo I view as more of a lagging indicator. For the smaller teams - for example, Salzburg has a pretty different starting XI right now than they did 12 months ago and than they will in 12 months - I think if you're really trying to accurately peg how good a team like Salzburg is, I think some recency bias is necessary. Regression is king in all of these sorts of things, but Ajax beat Real and Juve in xG in those ties, both pretty handily IIRC. 538 was all over the Ajax bandwagon early, I think it had Ajax as a favorite against Juve maybe?
   985. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5909047)
CL advancement odds, in order of least competitive to most competitive.

Juventus over Lyon 83%
Barcelona over Napoli 81%
Bayern over Chelsea 78%
PSG over Dortmund 74%
Liverpool over Atleti 70%
City over Real Madrid 68%
Valencia over Atalanta 57%
Tottenham over Leipzig 50.5% (only matchup where a second place team is favored, and it's basically a tossup).



   986. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5909050)
538 is wrong more often than right on teams like Ajax, for the reasons I mentioned. For example, this year in the CL they had Ajax, Shakhtar, Benfica and Salzburg all as favorites to advance (some by admittedly small amounts), and were wrong on all four. Betting odds had them all behind their big 5 counterparts. Though there were more upsets in the EL, it doesn't seem (on a quick review) that 538 was any better at predicting them than was betting odds.

I read recently an analysis of one site's betting odds versus 538, and it stated that 538 only added a very small amount to the predictive value (1 in 50 or something). And that I believe was a single betting site. If you aggregate them all you might get even less benefit for 538.

Comparing 538 to pure ELO is interesting, but overall I'm not sure, even with all their adjustments and data, that they are doing much better than pure ELO (both are overrating Ajax this year, for example). It would be interesting to find out.

edit: oops Salzburg was 1% behind Napoli, and Benfica 1% ahead. So these were effectively tossups for 538. Betting odds had Lyon as slightly ahead of Benfica, and Napoli as well ahead of Salzburg.
   987. manchestermets Posted: December 16, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5909053)
Betting odds should not be interpreted as representing the bookies' opinion of the actual chances of the results happening.
   988. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5909056)
Also, as I mentioned before, 538 should be adjusting lead strength after every interleague game, the way ELO does it. That allows the relative strength within leagues (where most games happen) not to become out of whack. Instead, 538 has to do this indirectly by overweighting each game. For example, if Chelsea beats Bayern and the rankings get adjusted, the rest of the EPL will only go up by subsequently beating Chelsea . The problem for 538 is that each game does not reveal equal information about how good a team is. The interleague games reveal more because structurally there are fewer of them. Pure ELO makes an attempt to adjust for this (however imperfect), whereas 538 skews the result of every single matchup, in and out of league, to better fit their regression without doing a league adjustment.

Imagine you have 4 teams, two pairs of each play each other 1000 times, but only play the opposite pair once. Each of the 1000 games among the paired teams will give you far less info about the relative strength of all 4 teams than each game against an opposite pair.
   989. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 03:38 PM (#5909057)
Betting odds should not be interpreted as representing the bookies' opinion of the actual chances of the results happening.
This is more wrong than right. Bookies don't need equal action on both sides of the line, as they are repeat players. They might shade the line a little to increase action, but that's it. They can be, and often are, heavily on one side or another of any individual line. Every so often you will see an article about how the bookies lost a lot of money on X week because most of the action was on one side of a bunch of big matchups.
   990. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 04:06 PM (#5909066)
Here's one article on the NFL from last year:

The descriptions from the bookmakers this Sunday night were the worst I can recall since Week 9 of the 2012 season, when favorites went 10-2 against the spread and sliced up Las Vegas. The quotes were spectacular after that week, too: "I've been in this business for 26 years, and I have never seen what I saw yesterday," Jay Kornegay, head of the SuperBook, told ESPN after that week.

Nevada books ended up down more than $5 million on football that November, a giant chunk of it coming from Week 9. Industry sources estimated they lost $7 million to $10 million this Sunday alone (also Week 9, by the way).
...
• "The Chiefs were the biggest loser of the day for us," Jay Rood, vice president of MGM race and sports, said. "The sharps kept betting the Browns for a little bit, but the public just kept coming on the Chiefs. Everyone kept say that they thought the line would be 9.5 or 10. They thought it was Black Friday on the Chiefs."


The betting lines generally follow the sharps (and have some of them on the payroll), but may shade the line to the public a little bit if there is heavy action by the public on one side. What they won't do is try to equally balance the public action.
   991. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 16, 2019 at 04:20 PM (#5909070)
I suppose we should be thankful that they didn't go with the runner-up submission ... "Everybody gets a banana" day.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/dec/16/serie-a-receives-condemnation-anti-racism-artwork-monkeys

Serie A has received widespread condemnation after artwork for an anti-racism campaign comprised three paintings of monkeys.

The three works were created by Simone Fugazzotto and will be on permanent display at the league’s headquarters in Milan. The league said the images are intended to “spread the values of integration, multiculturalism and brotherhood”.
   992. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 16, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5909077)
Lazio finds a late equalizer in Sardinia to draw with Cagliari.

EDIT: Apparently they scored again in extra time to win? Unbelievable. 9 minutes of extra time allows Lazio to score twice.
   993. Mefisto Posted: December 16, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5909083)
Looks like Ancelotti to Everton.
   994. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 04:51 PM (#5909087)
Europa odds--many more close matchups expected than in the CL:

Sevilla over Cluj 84%
Inter over Razgrad 83%

United over Brugge 76%
Roma over Gent 74%
Arsenal over Olympiacos 72%

Wolfsburg over Malmo 68%
Basel over APOEL 67%
Ajax over Getafe 65%
Celtic over Copenhagen 65%
Salzburg over Frankfurt 63%
Wolves over Espanyol 62%

Benfica over Shakhtar 57%
Sporting over Basaksehir 56%
Alkmaar over LASK 53%
Leverkusen over Porto 53%
Rangers over Braga 51%




   995. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 16, 2019 at 05:19 PM (#5909103)
An almost perfect set of draws from a standpoint of exciting matches, though Atalanta/Valencia will guarantee one weak team through to the quarters.

Leipzig/Tottenham should be a very fair matchup. City/Real should be fun. Chelsea/Bayern could also be pretty good.


It's funny, I had the opposite feeling. I don't know why but these matchups don't really grab me. I am pleased that one Atalanta or Valencia will reach the quarters but the one tie that really interests me is Leipzig-Spurs. I guess PSG-Dortmund but Dortmund aren't playing really well and PSG are just so...blah in the knockouts that it's more a question of how they'll blow it than if.
   996. Mefisto Posted: December 16, 2019 at 06:18 PM (#5909123)
993: Or maybe not.
   997. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 16, 2019 at 11:50 PM (#5909172)
Current top 4 betting odds:

Leicester 81%
Chelsea 47%
Spurs 47%
United 18%
Arsenal 4%
Wolves 2%
(Field 1%)

Spurs still have both games left against Chelsea, so no home advantage there for either team.

The other team Chelsea hasn't played yet is Arsenal, and Spurs has a much easier last matchup with Norwich. Those differences should end up wiping out at least half the 3-point deficit, so it appears people think of the two teams as very even going forward, with a slight edge to Spurs. This was also true for CL odds, where Spurs were considered slightly more likely to win it all than was Chelsea.

It seems bettors aren't putting very much weigh on the relative underlying performances of the teams this season to date, where Chelsea has one of the best xGDs in the EPL and Spurs not so much. Or if they are, they are counterbalancing that with preseason expectations where Spurs were pegged to be several points in the table better than Chelsea.
   998. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: December 17, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5909329)
Liverpool: Kelleher; Hoever, Van den Berg, Boyes, Gallacher; Kane, Chirivella, Christie-Davies; Elliott, Longstaff, Hill. Subs: Winterbottom, Clayton, Norris, Clarkson, Dixon-Bonner, Bearne, Stewart.


Caribou Cup fever ... catch it!

(Though, honestly, I would have loved to see the reaction if Klopp had taken this team to the useless-as-tits-on-a-bull competition that is the "Club World Championship").

   999. jmurph Posted: December 17, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5909333)
Klopp seems to be the only current "big team" manager who correctly values this thing.
   1000. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 17, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5909334)
Grealish isn't playing for Villa either.
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