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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

OT - 2018 NBA Summer Potpourri (finals, draft, free agency, Colangelo dragging)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  complaints about mayonnaise.


EDIT: image is shrunken. Mouse over to show full size. -vi

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 30, 2018 at 12:56 AM | 3814 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   401. JC in DC Posted: June 09, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5688892)
Eh?
   402. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5688893)
"Will everything go as predicted? Yes, but we almost got new stuff!" That doesn't work for me.
   403. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 09, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5688895)
i'm willing to trade up from #10 to the 4-8 range, depending on who's available.

i'm also willing to trade for a good SG who's still on a rookie deal. someone like booker, oubre, hollis-jefferson, ingram, monk, hield.

i'm willing to move some combination of:
#10
#26
#38
#39
#56
#60
timothe luwawu
furkan korkmaz
richaun holmes
anzejs pasecniks
mathais lessort

and i'm always looking to unload jerryd bayless
   404. Booey Posted: June 09, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5688896)
Seems to really hinge on the Hayward, Irving, and Paul injuries. If those don't happen we have the Irving/LeBron narrative in the Conference Finals, Houston (possibly) ending the Warriors run, and a Finals of either Warriors vs. Celtics or Rockets vs. Celtics/Cavs, all of which are more compelling than what we actually got.


These type of "what-if's?" happen basically every year, though. Kawhi last year. Paul and Griffen in 2016. Irving and Love in 2015. Durant in 2014(?). Rose in 2012. KG in 2009. A bunch more I'm forgetting.

It's a long season, and a long postseason. Injuries are just part of the grind. A few years down the road, I expect this seasons caveats to be mostly forgotten, just like they always are. Being healthy and being lucky have always been just as important as being good.

I'm with Hombre; saying "Well, we ALMOST had something different!" just doesn't mean much to me. Things always ALMOST happen differently.
   405. MHS Posted: June 09, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5688900)
The Celtics would be willing to listen to offers for Rozier. They value him as a starting quality player. Would move him as part of a package to trade up or for a solid current pick or a good future pick.
   406. MHS Posted: June 09, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5688901)
These type of "what-if's?" happen basically every year, though.


And sometimes it translates to the Mac’s or an underdog Spurs team or the Pistons winning a title.

That what makes it fun.
   407. Fridas Boss Posted: June 09, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5688902)
I'll take the Thunder in the draft. I assume they have leprosy.
   408. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 09, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5688904)
nick young: NBA champion
javale mcgee: NBA champion
JR smith: NBA champion
marreese speights: NBA champion
   409. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5688906)
And sometimes it translates to the Mac’s or an underdog Spurs team or the Pistons winning a title.

That what makes it fun.
... when it happens. We tune it for the "What if?" but if "it's exciting if it happens" is true, then it's pretty much true that if it doesn't happen, it's a letdown. The Finals were a sweep. There was nothing good about this series.

Maybe the Ohtani thing has just sucked all the joy out of my life.
   410. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: June 09, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5688910)
So a bunch of you are those people who'll watch an entire series of a show, one you enjoy and that's good, but because the very last episode isn't perfect you claim the whole series was garbage.
   411. Booey Posted: June 09, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5688912)
So a bunch of you are those people who'll watch an entire series of a show, one you enjoy and that's good, but because the very last episode isn't perfect you claim the whole series was garbage.


Not analogous.

It wasn't just the Finals. It was the rest of the postseason and regular season playing out pretty much how everyone expected too.

Yes, there were some interesting moments. And certain fanbases (including mine) should be happy with their teams season overall. There just wasn't a lot of interest for me outside of my own teams success. Most the rest was a script we've all seen before.
   412. jmurph Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5688918)
As a Celtics fan this was a really exciting, enjoyable season, more so than last year which was the previous most exciting and enjoyable season in like 4 or 5 years, at least. Despite the final game, despite the opening night horrorshow injury, despite the late season Kyrie injury.

It's possible being a fan of a team that finished in the final 4 doesn't count for this exercise, though?
   413. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5688919)
Nick Young @NickSwagyPYoung 40m40 minutes ago

I’m a national treasure .. swaggy P
   414. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5688922)
So a bunch of you are those people who'll watch an entire series of a show, one you enjoy and that's good, but because the very last episode isn't perfect you claim the whole series was garbage.
If I can predict everything that's gonna happen, then everything that matters does actually happen as predicted, and I feel like I've seen it all before, then... yeah, it's not very good television.
   415. smileyy Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5688924)
Durant's choice to go to the Warriors makes me think less of him and Durant's two Finals MVPs make me think less of Curry. Man I wish Durant never went to the Warriors.
   416. Booey Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5688925)
It's possible being a fan of a team that finished in the final 4 doesn't count for this exercise, though?


My team wasn't in the final 4, but I'm trying to view the season with an unbiased filter. My enjoyment level will always be ranked by the Jazz first, and the rest of the league (a distant) 2nd. This was my favorite Jazz season in over a decade, since at least the 2007 team that immediately went from missing the postseason 3 straight years to the conference finals (I had lots of fun with last years run, but Hayward's free agency and my near certainty that he was a goner were a constant cloud hovering over my enjoyment). So yeah, this year will always rank high in my mind.

But that's entirely because of Mitchell, Gobert, and co and their amazing run in the 2nd half of the season (and the optimism about the future that brings). If I take the Jazz out of the equation and focus solely on the rest of the league, I'd have to say this was one of the least exciting seasons I can remember (but obviously I'm not going to separate those 2 things when thinking about the 2018 season years down the road).
   417. Booey Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5688930)
Durant's choice to go to the Warriors makes me think less of him and Durant's two Finals MVPs make me think less of Curry. Man I wish Durant never went to the Warriors.


I doubt Steph cares, but do any other all time greats have multiple titles without winning a Finals MVP? I don't mean clear #2 guys like Pippen, but actual #1 option, MVP caliber players?
   418. smileyy Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5688936)
Who do you take going forward? Lebron, Curry is Durant?
   419. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5688937)
FTR, I thought Steph should have won the finals MVP.
   420. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5688938)
I doubt Steph cares, but do any other all time greats have multiple titles without winning a Finals MVP? I don't mean clear #2 guys like Pippen, but actual #1 option, MVP caliber players?


I dunno, I think Finals MVP stuff is kinda dumb. The reason why KD won finals MVP the last two years is because the Cavs:

A) trap and double Curry when he has the ball
B) are allowed to mercilessly maul Curry when he's off ball

So his numbers aren't as good overall as Durant's, but he's the reason why Durant gets to have single coverage almost all game.

The Warriors, on the flip side, game plan to make LeBron beat them as a scorer. They switch everything so shooters don't get open, and they don't double LeBron until he gets into the paint.
   421. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5688941)
Oh, and the Mavs are interested in moving up anywhere between 1 and 3.

The #5 pick is in play, as is absorbing any of your teams' bad money.

Sacramento, we'll take care of Iman Shumpert's dead money.
Phoenix, we'll handle Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley or Alex Len for you. (Gosh, lots of bad contracts there)
Atlanta, we can help you get off of Bazemore or Miles Plumlee.
   422. Booey Posted: June 09, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5688943)
FTR, I thought Steph should have won the finals MVP.

He had the best overall numbers in 2015 too, but I get why Iggy won.
   423. sardonic Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5688945)
My big question of the offseason is where does Lebron go? It feels pretty wide open to me, but gut says Houston. I think he decides he only wants to go there, and puts the Cavs to a decision to trade him there or get nothing. They end up doing the deal roughly around Lebron for Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.

Anderson has two seasons left and can help them tank. Eric Gordon has a couple years left at an OK salary and is a positive asset that can probably fetch something, maybe a late first or so. Houston can also trade its 2019 first round pick after this year's draft for taking on Anderson's salary.

If the Cavs play hardball, they could go for Houston's 2019 and 2021, which would pretty much put Houston ALL IN on the next season or two with a core of Lebron + CP3 + Harden + Capela + PJ Tucker, and they could use Bird rights to re-sign Trevor Ariza and LRMAM, and they'd taxpayers midlevel exception to pick up a backup guard for their rotation (Will Barton? That guy kills the Warriors... Wayne Ellington? Perhaps Danny Green if nothing better opens up for him and he decides he wants to win?).

I think that team would potentially be co-favorites or outright favorites for the NBA title next season. It does hinge on the Cavs helping Lebron, but taking on two years of Anderson and Gordon for two first round picks isn't a bad rebuilding move, and probably better than what they could get elsewhere. And that 2021 could be pretty interesting given that in two seasons Lebron will be 35 with a bajillion miles and CP3 might not have any working ligaments left.

Cleveland would probably then go full rebuild/tank. Moving Gordon and Love for positive draft assets would get them under a luxury tax and leave them with an abysmal team that is capped out for the next couple seasons (George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, JR Smith, Kyle Korver and Tristan Thompson for two seasons, Larry Nance for one more). But it'd potentially have 3 extra first rounders over the next three seasons to kickstart a rebuild. They do owe their 2019 first to Atlanta for Kyle Korver so I guess going full tank this coming season doesn't totally help them.

But they could try to win the lottery in 2020 and then enter that offseason with a clean cap, a couple young recent lottery picks and future draft assets.
   424. smileyy Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5688948)
I'm still rooting for Philly or SA. LA + PG doesn't do it for me. Neither does HOU with Harden. Maybe LA and Paul might be fun to watch.
   425. JC in DC Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5688949)
I disagree, but not strongly, with those arguing for Curry over Durant. In a sense, who cares? But in another, all series I thought Durant was GSW's best player, in all respects of the game. Even game 2, where Curry went off for 9 3s, I thought Durant was the better player: hyper-efficient, protecting the rim on defense, and (most important) real solid early in the game. Anyway, who cares, and I get the narrative of Curry never winning one so far, but IMHO, Durant was their MVP.
   426. sardonic Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5688951)
I think narrative wise, if Curry never wins a Finals MVP, there will be an acknowledgement that 2015 should have been his Finals MVP, and he'll get assigned some credit for setting the Warriors culture that made them an attractive destination for KD in the first place.

Can you imagine the Warriors brass and stars going to the Hamptons if, say, Russell Westbrook was there instead of Curry? Or even James Harden?
   427. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5688952)
Anderson has two seasons left and can help them tank. Eric Gordon has a couple years left at an OK salary and is a positive asset that can probably fetch something, maybe a late first or so. Houston can also trade its 2019 first round pick after this year's draft for taking on Anderson's salary.

If the Cavs play hardball, they could go for Houston's 2019 and 2021, which would pretty much put Houston ALL IN on the next season or two with a core of Lebron + CP3 + Harden + Capela + PJ Tucker, and they could use Bird rights to re-sign Trevor Ariza and LRMAM, and they'd taxpayers midlevel exception to pick up a backup guard for their rotation (Will Barton? That guy kills the Warriors... Wayne Ellington? Perhaps Danny Green if nothing better opens up for him and he decides he wants to win?).

I think that team would potentially be co-favorites or outright favorites for the NBA title next season. It does hinge on the Cavs helping Lebron, but taking on two years of Anderson and Gordon for two first round picks isn't a bad rebuilding move, and probably better than what they could get elsewhere. And that 2021 could be pretty interesting given that in two seasons Lebron will be 35 with a bajillion miles and CP3 might not have any working ligaments left.


I dunno ... Houston with LeBron is very old and bad defensively all of a sudden on paper. Would definitely test whether his defensive play recently was about conserving energy.

Bron has also never really played with a rim runner like Capela--Thompson never rolls hard to the basket. I always got the impression he preferred bigs who popped (Varaejao, Ilgauskas, Bosh).

LeBron hasn't played off ball in like 4 years also ... not really sure how that works with Harden and Paul.

The talent is undeniable, but there's a lot of fit questions IMO.
   428. JJ1986 Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5688955)
Durant and Paul sign with the Lakers, LeBron opts in and gets traded for Ingram, Ball and Randle. Then you've got a team.
   429. Thok Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5688961)
The Celtics would be willing to listen to offers for Rozier. They value him as a starting quality player. Would move him as part of a package to trade up or for a solid current pick or a good future pick.


I expect you to say no, but how does something like http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y9n3ud5w sound to you (with a draft pick tossed in for balancing purposes)? You'd need to convince Deandre to accept a sign and trade.
   430. sardonic Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5688963)
LeBron hasn't played off ball in like 4 years also ... not really sure how that works with Harden and Paul.


In my worst nightmares as a GSW fan, it's CP3 and Harden who play more off ball. Given that they're the better shooters, it seems like a natural move.

I think you could construct a championship defense with Capela on the back line, CP3 at the point of attack, Ariza/Tucker/LRMAM on the wing and Lebron and Harden just enough in their own ways.

I think in the regular season you basically put bubble wrap around CP3 and tell him to just prepare to play max minutes in the playoffs against GSW and Bos.
   431. JJ1986 Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5688965)
i'm also willing to trade for a good SG who's still on a rookie deal. someone like booker, oubre, hollis-jefferson, ingram, monk, hield.
Just to confirm, you are interested in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson? Because he's a power forward who can't shoot from deep.
   432. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5688966)
I think you could construct a championship defense with Capela on the back line, CP3 at the point of attack, Ariza/Tucker/LRMAM on the wing and Lebron and Harden just enough in their own ways.


I'm pretty sure (but haven't done the numbers) that Houston + Bron would be at the hard cap and couldn't bring back Ariza and Capela.

Would depend on whose money they traded to get LeBron, and how much Capela had on his offer sheet.

Edit: In order to trade for LeBron in a S&T, the Rockets need to get under the Apron. That would require them to renounce Ariza's cap hold (and Bird rights) at a minimum.
   433. JC in DC Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5688967)
LBJ:

Is it a done deal assuming that LBJ wants to go West? Would he be happy flaming out in the second round? I don't think so, because even though he's 3-6 in the Finals, being in the Finals allows him to have that "LBJ + 4 carcasses v. the World" narrative. Put differently: I think he stays East, because the risk of going West and getting picked off by a resurgent Spurs, or energized Jazz is just too great. Were I him, I wouldn't see LA + George + LBJ as a champion. Houston, maybe, but again, the risk of losing early is pretty significant, whereas in the East, the path is pretty clear, or clearer at least. Therefore, I see STIGGLES being happy.

Is there anyway he could fit on Indiana? Because that would be cool.
   434. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5688969)
Is there anyway he could fit on Indiana? Because that would be cool.


I imagine LeBron would prioritize playing for Toronto in the East because he already owns the franchise.
   435. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: June 09, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5688971)
I think LeBron's defense gets better if he doesnt have to do everything offensively. The athleticism is still there, he's still strong, and he has high basketball IQ. But he can't play 4000 minutes as basically the only guy who can initiate the offense.
   436. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5688972)
Just to confirm, you are interested in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson? Because he's a power forward who can't shoot from deep.
yup. i've always been a fan of the guy.
Oh, and the Mavs are interested in moving up anywhere between 1 and 3.
i don't get that for DAL. if they're willing to eat salary, i think they'd be better off getting an extra pick than moving up for someone who might drop to #5 anyway. just in the last 6 weeks, everyone in this draft, except ayton, has been mocked at 5 or lower.
Who do you take going forward? Lebron, Curry is Durant?
lebron, then durant.
Durant and Paul sign with the Lakers, LeBron opts in and gets traded for Ingram, Ball and Randle. Then you've got a team.
if that's paul george instead of durant, that might be viable.

also: that's way too much to give up for lebron in a sign and trade.
   437. sardonic Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5688974)
I'm pretty sure (but haven't done the numbers) that Houston + Bron would be at the hard cap and couldn't bring back Ariza and Capela.

Would depend on whose money they traded to get LeBron, and how much Capela had on his offer sheet.

Edit: In order to trade for LeBron in a S&T, the Rockets need to get under the Apron. That would require them to renounce Ariza's cap hold (and Bird rights) at a minimum.


Ah, that would make sense. I'm definitely fuzzy on the exact details of the hard cap and the apron. I wonder if they could get Capela to take fewer annual dollars on a longer deal to help. Losing Ariza's Bird rights would hurt in that scenario since I think they'll need every 3-D wing to maximize their chances against GS, but they'd still be very formidable, just with less margin for error.
   438. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5688975)
i don't get that for DAL. if they're willing to eat salary, i think they'd be better off getting an extra pick than moving up for someone who might drop to #5 anyway. just in the last 6 weeks, everyone in this draft, except ayton, has been mocked at 5 or lower.


I think this draft is a 2 player draft and I think one of those guys will be available between 1 and 3, but not at 5.

Dallas isn't doing anything with their cap space anyway.
   439. sardonic Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5688976)
Is it a done deal assuming that LBJ wants to go West? Would he be happy flaming out in the second round? I don't think so, because even though he's 3-6 in the Finals, being in the Finals allows him to have that "LBJ + 4 carcasses v. the World" narrative. Put differently: I think he stays East, because the risk of going West and getting picked off by a resurgent Spurs, or energized Jazz is just too great. Were I him, I wouldn't see LA + George + LBJ as a champion. Houston, maybe, but again, the risk of losing early is pretty significant, whereas in the East, the path is pretty clear, or clearer at least. Therefore, I see STIGGLES being happy.


I could see it. My take on it is that he'll go to the place where he has the best chance to win a title. I think it's still open to debate whether that is PHI or HOU.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if he went in a different direction and went to LA or something like that, but I'd be surprised. I think he'd stay in Cleveland before going to the Lakers, even if Paul George was signed up there.
   440. smileyy Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5688980)
FWIW SAC isn't moving off of its pick.
   441. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:10 PM (#5688984)
FWIW SAC isn't moving off of its pick.


I feel like you should be forced to roleplay as the actual SAC front office and make at least two inexplicable decisions around draft time.
   442. smileyy Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5688985)
I lol'ed
   443. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5688993)
Can you imagine the Warriors brass and stars going to the Hamptons if, say, Russell Westbrook was there instead of Curry? Or even James Harden?


If they had gone 140-24 the previous two years, yeah. Durant wanted to be on the best team, the cap spike allowed him to do that without giving too much money, so he signed with Golden State. The "culture" and organizational presence stuff is overrated. Kerr certainly does a good job of setting the tone in Golden State, but nobody would care if they didn't have the horses at the core of the roster that they do.
   444. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5688997)
@tshipman what did you have in mind for the #1, besides eating salary? Chandler expires after the upcoming year, Knight expires after two more seasons. (Same with Dudley.) I'm pretty sure Len is an FA.

Is your 2019 top pick on the table, too?
   445. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5689000)
@tshipman what did you have in mind for the #1, besides eating salary? Chandler expires after the upcoming year, Knight expires after two more seasons. (Same with Dudley.) I'm pretty sure Len is an FA.

Is your 2019 top pick on the table, too?


I could do #5, absorb Brandon Knight's dead money and next year's pick, but I'd want protections on the pick.
   446. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5689001)
Durant's choice to go to the Warriors makes me think less of him and Durant's two Finals MVPs make me think less of Curry. Man I wish Durant never went to the Warriors.
that's a sunk cost at this point.

since durant is a free agent this summer, i'd like to see him shop around a little, instead of rubber stamping a return to GSW. if he's willing to go to HOU or LAL or PHI or CHI, that would create so much more intrigue for next year.
I think this draft is a 2 player draft and I think one of those guys will be available between 1 and 3, but not at 5.

even if that's true, i think it'd be better to move down, not up.

this is probably just the residual hinkie coming out of me, but when you're as far away from contention as DAL, i think it's better to give yourself as many options as possible.
   447. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5689003)
this is probably just the residual hinkie coming out of me, but when you're as far away from contention as DAL, i think it's better to give yourself as many options as possible.


I don't think Dallas is that far from contention.

Their expected Wins were 33, and that's with tanking for the last half of the year.
   448. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5689004)
James: I don't think he will care about East/West; I think he will care about beating the Curry/Durant Warriors, and I think he will want to do that with Chris Paul. Also, I think that Cleveland would be more likely to "cooperate" if they were getting him out of the conference (although this reseeding thing, which I oppose, could happen I suppose). The Ringer scenario had Hayward getting traded to Cleveland, but I am not sure that Cleveland's FO would want to help James get to Boston.

As to the Lakers, the only way I see that is if it is James and Paul, and they get rid of two of Ball/Ingram/Randle to add a third guy. I do think the fact that James will be talking to Magic Johnson means that James will at least listen. But that is not enough barring something cataclysmic.

With the 76ers, I think how young Embiid and Simmons are, injury concerns, plus the skill overlap with Simmons, will give James some pause. But it can certainly happen.

Season: Fans like the regulars on this thread will always find reasons to be interested. The observation upthread about casual fans was a good one. During the Jordan Era, many casual fans I knew got bored with it...BullsBullsBulls etc. One of the big narrative elements of Jordan's record is that nobody ever pushed the Bulls to G7 in the Finals. But the only real wipeout the Bulls laid on somebody in the Finals was in 1991 against the Lakers. They won two G6s on the road at the buzzer in 1993 and 1998, and needed a huge 4Q comeback to close out Portland in 1992. They were in control in 1996 and 1997, but both of those series were more competitive in than all three of Cleveland's losses to Golden State, and certainly moreso than the last two.

At the time, people said that the Jordan Era was less compelling because there was no Lakers/Celtics thing happening. But Chicago played several very good teams with big stars, and they did have the bitter battles with the Knicks and the Pistons in their own conference. Golden State has been facing weaker Finals opponents and has no hardcore rival in their own conference, so there is much less narrative stuff to focus on.
   449. sardonic Posted: June 09, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5689006)
If they had gone 140-24 the previous two years, yeah. Durant wanted to be on the best team, the cap spike allowed him to do that without giving too much money, so he signed with Golden State. The "culture" and organizational presence stuff is overrated. Kerr certainly does a good job of setting the tone in Golden State, but nobody would care if they didn't have the horses at the core of the roster that they do.


I agree with the last part. Having the horses, going 140-24 the previous two years, etc. is definitely the primary reason. There is always some other stuff that plays into it. In the Hamptons it was culture; in Miami in 2010 it was Pat Riley's rings on the table and the banana boat; in 1996 it Hollywood luring the star of Shaq Diesel and Kazaam.

I don't think it's far fetched to say that those extras play a role though. I don't think it's crazy to think that if the Warriors had different personalities/culture that KD might not have joined. He might have joined anyway, who knows. Maybe KD still joins but it takes a season to blend the team's egos and styles together, as it did the Heat, and the Warriors don't win in 2017. This thread has debated this ad nauseum in different ways, but I don't think the impact is negligible.

The last four years seem inevitable because that's how things turned out, but history is littered with misses. In 2000 Tim Duncan didn't join Grant Hill and TMAc on the Magic. The Shaq/Kobe/Phil Jackson core imploded after four seasons. Lebron left the Heat after four seasons. Players talk a lot about the mental grind of contending together for a long stretch.

Assuming KD re-signs, just keeping the team together for a fifth straight season would be unusual for the modern NBA. You could argue that KD and the cap spike really has the Warriors core only on year three after this coming season, and I wouldn't fight you too hard on that. If it sticks together and contends into 2020 I think it'd be pretty exceptional, but I suppose we'll just have to wait and see if it plays out that way.
   450. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 09, 2018 at 05:01 PM (#5689012)
I don't think Dallas is that far from contention.

Their expected Wins were 33, and that's with tanking for the last half of the year.

DAL's best players are dwight powell, harrison barnes and dennis smith. when that's your foundation, you're building on quicksand.

   451. MHS Posted: June 09, 2018 at 05:06 PM (#5689013)
Thok, Re: 429 - thanks for thinking that through and the offer but I’m not planning to make a move that breaks into my starting 5 before they get a chance to play together unless it’s a deal too good to refuse. For clarity starters are: Kyrie, Brown, Gordon, Tatum and Al.
   452. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 09, 2018 at 05:11 PM (#5689016)
Maybe KD still joins but it takes a season to blend the team's egos and styles together, as it did the Heat, and the Warriors don't win in 2017.


The 2012 Heat weren't notably better than the 2011 Heat; they just played better in the Finals. The 2011 team had a 58-24 PYTH and a 3 ORTG and 5 DRTG. The 2012 team had a 47-19 PYTH in the strike year and an 8 ORTG and 4 DRTG. The Lakers blew up partly because Shaq and Kobe were and are Shaq and Kobe, but also because Kupchak did not do a very good job with the rest of the roster.

So...I do think that Kerr is probably an exceptional leader, and has always been known for his combination of intelligence and humility. Durant's MVP speech in OKC showed he has some good traits as a leader. That probably helps. But the NBA is about talent, not about how cool the guys on the team are. Bryant won two more times when the Lakers got more talent around him, and he had the same obvious set of personality and on-court negatives all 20 years that he played. Jordan was in many ways a difficult teammate and a difficult guy to play with, and he won 6 of the 7 years when he had Pippen/Jackson and Grant/Rodman.

As to Golden State lasting a long time...personalities will be part of that as it goes forward, but IMO it is/will be more about on-court skills balancing and age alignment than about the guys getting along, and I think they probably do get along in large part because of those factors.
   453. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 09, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5689017)
With the 76ers, I think how young Embiid and Simmons are, injury concerns, plus the skill overlap with Simmons, will give James some pause. But it can certainly happen.

if it comes together, PHI should run the offense through simmons/embiid/fultz, and let lebron be the closer. last minute of each quarter, get the ball to lebron. 4th quarter/overtime, get the ball to lebron. when the offense is stagnating, get the ball to lebron.
   454. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 09, 2018 at 05:21 PM (#5689018)
Windhorst on James in FA

It's hard to see him being apart from his family, which includes 3-year-old daughter Zhuri, at this stage of his life. In 2010, he left Savannah and his young sons in Ohio when he first moved to Miami. Now, where they want to live is a deeper factor.
   455. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 09, 2018 at 07:03 PM (#5689053)
@tshipman I can see me definitely losing the 2019 pick if it's protected #2-6, which won't work. Ideas?
   456. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5689080)
   457. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5689082)
@tshipman I can see me definitely losing the 2019 pick if it's protected #2-6, which won't work. Ideas?


We could sandwich protect the pick.

So let's say it's protected #3-#13 in 2019 (meaning you get it if the Mavs pick first, second or in the back half).
Then, the protections can expand to favor you in 2020 to something like: #5-25 (meaning it only conveys if it's in the top 5 or bottom half).

If there's a cheap young player you like on the Mavs who isn't named Dennis Smith, Jr., we could also talk about that.

Completely unprotected multiple firsts isn't happening though.
   458. Tin Angel Posted: June 09, 2018 at 07:48 PM (#5689085)
Nick Young @NickSwagyPYoung 40m40 minutes ago

I’m a national treasure .. swaggy P


This was my favorite meme of the night.
   459. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 09, 2018 at 07:52 PM (#5689086)
@tshipman isn't there a rule that says you can't deal the #1 overall?
   460. PERSON WOMAN MAN CAMERA TFTIO Posted: June 09, 2018 at 08:17 PM (#5689095)
@tshipman isn't there a rule that says you can't deal the #1 overall?

I mean, since 2017? (no.)
   461. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 09, 2018 at 09:34 PM (#5689136)
@tshipman I'm not down to give away the #1 for #5 and maybe-or-maybe-not another mid-lottery pick. I'm looking for two high firsts, or the equivalent in talent. Not sure we have a match, unless you let the 2019 pick convey at #1-10.

It'd probably be different if there were more years left on some these PHO deals. The worst deal I have isn't bad enough to mortgage a #1 overall just to move down.

Maybe we get another team involved?
   462. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2018 at 09:48 PM (#5689141)
I'm looking for two high firsts, or the equivalent in talent


Good luck, then. I don't think there's a deal there, but good luck.
   463. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 09, 2018 at 09:51 PM (#5689142)
Thanks, @tship. I'm fine making the pick if nothing else comes along.
   464. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 09, 2018 at 09:54 PM (#5689145)
@TFTIO I believe I was mistakenly thinking of the Stepien Rule, which wouldn't apply here.
   465. PERSON WOMAN MAN CAMERA TFTIO Posted: June 09, 2018 at 09:55 PM (#5689146)
@TFTIO I believe I was mistakenly thinking of the Stepien Rule, which wouldn't apply here.


Sure. It's all good.
   466. smileyy Posted: June 09, 2018 at 11:15 PM (#5689174)
I'm excited for the draft.
   467. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2018 at 01:33 AM (#5689187)
I don't know what will happen, but I know what I want to happen: LeBron to the Pelicans. There's a really good chance that the Pellies would have the top two players on the court in the vast majority of their minutes, which is a good starting spot. AD version 2018-19 is probably the single most valuable teammate LeBron could have (I think Harden > AD but LeBron+AD > LeBron+Harden, and I'm ruling out the Warriors here).

I assume this has a minimal chance of happening, but if I'm LeBron I seriously consider this. I assume that the money could be made to work somehow.
   468. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 10, 2018 at 02:29 AM (#5689194)
I thought that Chris Paul going back to NO would be fantastic, but I don't think the Pels have the cap space to sign a contract like that. The cap isn't moving, and I don't see either Paul nor James taking any paycuts.
   469. stevegamer Posted: June 10, 2018 at 04:51 AM (#5689196)
Was going to post that I'm glad to pass off the Bucks to an actual Bucks fan.

Getting the Cavs is a COUP! Everyone is available. Including LeBron in a sign & trade.


   470. stevegamer Posted: June 10, 2018 at 04:56 AM (#5689197)
[quote}okay, here's my thoughts on the sixers potentially rehiring sam hinkie:

it's not gonna happen. and it shouldn't. the trust between hinkie and ownership has been irreparably broken, so while the idea is good for a chuckle, it would be a terrible foundation for the organization.

Most sensible Stiggles post ever.

I am the among the few who didn't like Hinkie, and would hate him back now. He doesn't know how to construct a functional team. He can get "assets", making them fit is not a skill.

   471. MHS Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5689207)
DRAFT RESOURCES
ESPN insiders top 17 scouting reports, former draft express: shorturl.at/aBLQ0

   472. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:22 AM (#5689209)
Athletic Supporter, you still interested in moving up?
   473. MHS Posted: June 10, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5689217)
Just as a reminder Terry Rozier is available, for good draft capitial either this year or future years. He is valued as a cost controlled quality starter. I’m probably unwilling to expand the deal materially unless it involves a top 20 top type player.

Teams I think could value scary Terry:
Philly
Pacers
Det
Knicks
Nets
Orlando
Utah
Clippers
Kings
Memphis
Suns
   474. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: June 10, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5689227)
I am skeptical that Rozier would be a quality starter separated from Stevens' system and the Celtics' depth.
   475. Tin Angel Posted: June 10, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5689245)
I just realized Kris Humphries is out of the league. Ruined my Sunday.
   476. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 10, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5689252)
probably nothing, but possibly something:
Chris Sheridan @sheridanhoops
Update from @BetDSI on LeBron. They re-opened odds for his next team. After getting "non-stop" action on @Cleveland Cavaliers at 30/1 they moved to 13/2. Also took solid @HoustonRockets money, moving from 10/1 to 6/1. updated odds here. My sources still saying El Lay...
pic.twitter.com/PHQiPxUMoK

   477. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5689283)
Just as a reminder Terry Rozier is available, for good draft capitial either this year or future years. He is valued as a cost controlled quality starter.


What does "good draft capital" mean? To simplify the answer, if it were a single pick, what pick would it be?

Athletic Supporter, you still interested in moving up?


Sorry -- saw your message but haven't had a chance to respond. I'll do so now.
   478. Willard Baseball Posted: June 10, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5689300)
Stevegamer,

It was mentioned earlier that the Cavs might be interested in something like Conley for Love and the 8th pick. Is that something that would interest you?
   479. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 05:21 PM (#5689315)
@Athletic Supporter: thanks for getting back to me. I sent you a revised offer in email.
   480. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2018 at 05:36 PM (#5689317)
The Magic would like to put Nikola Vucevic on the block. He's been a consistently solid player (positive BPMs for the last 6 years, +2.7 last year) on a very reasonable expiring contract ($12.75M) who should be on a playoff contending team. Won't be asking that much, let me know if you're interested.
   481. MHS Posted: June 10, 2018 at 07:32 PM (#5689346)

To simplify the answer, if it were a single pick, what pick would it be


I don’t have a great answer, but I’ll pull 16 out of thin air on the rational that he was the 16th overall pick, lost a couple years of cost control but has materially outplayed the slot.

Doesn’t need to be a pick this year. A future year is fine.
   482. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 07:44 PM (#5689349)
Trade Alert!

ORL gets: #1 overall
PHO gets: #6 overall, ORL 2019-1 (unprotected)
   483. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 08:06 PM (#5689357)
BTF 2018 MOCK DRAFT:

FIRST ROUND
1. ORL - Athletic Supporter (from PHO)
2. Kings - smileyy
3. Hawks - Der-K
4. Grizzlies – Willard Baseball
5. Mavericks - tshipman
6. PHO - Oriole Tragic (from ORL)
7. Bulls - Moses
8. Cavs
9. Knicks - NJ/JC
10. 76ers - 57i66135
11. Hornets - Berg
12. Clippers - Thok
13. Clippers - Thok
14. Nuggets - Dandy
15. Wizards - Votto
16. Suns - Oriole Tragic
17. Bucks - stevegamer
18. Spurs
19. Hawks - Der-K
20. Timberwolves - Mouse
21. Jazz
22. Bulls - Moses
23. Pacers - Paste
24. Trailblazers
25. Lakers - Hombre/rr
26. 76ers - 57i66135
27. Celtics - MHS
28. Warriors - sardonic
29. Nets - JJ1986
30. Hawks - Der-K
   484. smileyy Posted: June 10, 2018 at 08:12 PM (#5689359)
Wowzers
   485. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 10, 2018 at 08:17 PM (#5689361)
Anyone want Drummond before the Pistons 42nd pick rolls arond?

I got Phoenix in some other mock offseason. They seem awful and I don't want to draft Ayton so I have no clue what to do.
   486. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2018 at 08:26 PM (#5689366)
I'm ready to pick, but we should fill out the rest of the teams first, right? Stevegamer was happy to take the Cavs and pass off the Bucks, but I'm not sure if that was in response to anything (Ken Griffey Jr is the resident Bucks fan IIRC?). We also need takers for the Spurs, Jazz, and Blazers, who else is out there?

Anyway, here's the short version why I made the trade as Orlando (I'm curious to hear Oriole Tragic's side of it too):

-- 6 was an awkward spot. There are 2 players I would really want this draft among the top tier, neither of who is likely to still be there at 6. The other guys I would target are going in the 10-15 range in most mocks and 6 would feel like an overdraft. I'll be interested in trading into the mid-teens if those players are available then, fwiw. I thought about trading down, but this felt like a better option.
-- I'm generally not high on the 2019 draft, which seems significantly weaker than this year's draft. This could certainly backfire as I expect the Magic to be a lottery team, but if that pick lands in the lower half of the top 10 I don't expect to get a great player there.
-- I think that in general, the best way to win chips in the NBA is to have the best player in the league. I think the player I'm planning to draft could develop into that (obviously nothing is guaranteed). I don't think any of the players available at 6 are likely to have that potential (you never know, I guess).
   487. JJ1986 Posted: June 10, 2018 at 08:28 PM (#5689367)
I'm ready to pick, but we should fill out the rest of the teams first, right? Stevegamer was happy to take the Cavs and pass off the Bucks, but I'm not sure if that was in response to anything (Ken Griffey Jr is the resident Bucks fan IIRC?). We also need takers for the Spurs, Jazz, and Blazers, who else is out there?
I think we had them all assigned Friday night. There should be an updated list somewhere earlier in the thread.

Edit, missing Portland and a few who only have seconds:


FIRST ROUND
1. Magic - Athletic Supporter
2. Kings - smileyy
3. Hawks - Der-K
4. Grizzlies – Willard Baseball
5. Mavericks - tshipman
6. Suns - Oriole Tragic
7. Bulls - Moses
8. Cavs - stevegamer
9. Knicks - NJ/JC
10. 76ers - 57i66135
11. Hornets - Berg
12. Clippers - Thok
13. Clippers - Thok
14. Nuggets - Dandy
15. Wizards - Votto
16. Suns - Oriole Tragic
17. Bucks - Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw
18. Spurs - SouthSideRyan
19. Hawks - Der-K
20. Timberwolves - Mouse
21. Jazz - Booey/Cervo
22. Bulls - Moses
23. Pacers - Paste
24. Trailblazers
25. Lakers - Hombre/rr
26. 76ers - 57i66135
27. Celtics - MHS
28. Warriors - sardonic
29. Nets - JJ1986
30. Hawks - Der-K

SECOND ROUND
31. Suns - Oriole Tragic
32. Grizzlies – Willard Baseball
33. Mavericks - tshipman
34. Hawks - Der-K
35. Magic - Athletic Supporter
36. Knicks - NJ/JC
37. Kings - smileyy
38. 76ers - 57i66135
39. 76ers - 57i66135
40. Nets - JJ1986
41. Magic - Athletic Supporter
42. Pistons - Crosseyed and Painless
43. Nuggets - Dandy
44. Wizards -Votto
45. Nets - JJ1986
46. Rockets
47. Lakers - Hombre/rr
48. Timberwolves - Mouse
49. Spurs - SouthSideRyan
50. Pacers - Paste
51. Pelicans
52. Jazz - Booey/Cervo
53. Thunder - Fridas Boss
54. Mavericks - tshipman
55. Hornets - Berg
56. 76ers - 57i66135
57. Thunder - Fridas Boss
58. Nuggets - Dandy
59. Suns - Oriole Tragic
60. 76ers - 57i66135

Trades
ORL gets: #1 overall
PHO gets: #6 overall, ORL 2019-1 (unprotected)
   488. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 08:46 PM (#5689372)
Without getting into this year's potential selections, I'll just say now that PHO needs picks and I didn't see a KAT-type no-brainer at #1.

Both PHO and ORL will likely be pretty bad next year, which means two lottery picks for PHO in 2019.
   489. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: June 10, 2018 at 08:52 PM (#5689376)
Anyone want Drummond before the Pistons 42nd pick rolls arond?
i'll take him. it would throw a wrench into the sixers' pursuit of lebron, but a bird in the hand, and whatnot.

i'm not very willing to move fultz, covington or #10 (or simmons or embiid....or bolden), but i can offer some combination of the following (and jerryd bayless would need to be involved, ofc):

dario saric
richaun holmes
timothe luwawu cabarrot
furkan korkmaz
justin anderson
#26, #38, #39, #56, #60
   490. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:09 PM (#5689378)
Suns willing to listen to deals including everyone besides Booker and Jackson.
   491. MHS Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:17 PM (#5689379)
Athletic supporter, what you need right now is a Terry Rozier. Get you out of that Lottery in 2019!
   492. JJ1986 Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:23 PM (#5689380)
stiggles, is Jonah Bolden available in trades at all?
   493. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:37 PM (#5689387)
Yeah, I'm drafting for the Bucks. MHS, I'd definitely consider trading #17 for Rozier irl but this won't be fun if I trade my only pick.

well, I guess this is worth a shot-- Anybody interested in Eric Bledsoe for a mid-to-late first rounder? T-wolves? Bulls? Spurs? Lakers? 76ers?
   494. PJ Martinez Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:46 PM (#5689391)
Wait, you would trade Saric for Drummond?
   495. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2018 at 09:55 PM (#5689393)
Athletic supporter, what you need right now is a Terry Rozier. Get you out of that Lottery in 2019!


I'm interested! (Probably irrationally so, since I drafted him in our mock his year.) But I'm not sure I have the draft picks you claimed to want.

I'll offer you #36 for Rozier.
   496. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: June 10, 2018 at 10:09 PM (#5689398)
I'm already picking for the Pacers, but I'll take the Blazers too if nobody else wants them. I actually watched the Blazers a lot this year.
   497. smileyy Posted: June 10, 2018 at 10:13 PM (#5689399)
I sense collusion, PASTE!

(I kid)
   498. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 10:33 PM (#5689404)
@MHS I'll do #31 for Rozier. Need to keep ORL in the lottery! :D
   499. MHS Posted: June 10, 2018 at 10:59 PM (#5689410)
Athletic Supporter, re 495 - would issac be available? Pedigree is great and I loved him coming out last year but his stat line this year wasn’t good. I didn’t want watch much magic so I don’t know why it wasn’t good but is that something we could work around?

Oriole Tragic, re #498 how about number 31 and a future 1st? With some sort of sliding scale protections? Top 16, top 8, top 4 then 2 seconds?not sure if you have any future commitments.

These are inquires not firm offers.




   500. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: June 10, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5689413)
@MHS I'd almost rather work a deal that gets a player off my hands instead of a future first. Otherwise I'd need some heavy protection.

If that's too complicated, then I can ship you #31 and #59 in this draft for Scary (until ECF) Terry. :D
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