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Sunday, August 25, 2019

OT - 2019 NFL thread

In a shocking development, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement from the NFL on Saturday night, saying constant injuries have taken away his love for the game.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: August 25, 2019 at 10:51 AM | 695 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, off-topic

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   501. Tin Angel Posted: January 12, 2020 at 06:54 PM (#5915006)
Looks like a fumble.
   502. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 12, 2020 at 07:57 PM (#5915011)
The Seahawks have no one who can cover Adams.
   503. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:15 PM (#5915026)
Russell Wilson is so frustrating to play (or root) against.
   504. Meatwad Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:47 PM (#5915029)
I dont think he got the first down.
   505. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:49 PM (#5915030)
Looked pretty close on the initial play, so I didn't think they would reverse. Couldn't be fussed to watch the replays though.

49ers should be pretty solid favorites next week, and KC as well.

edit: I'm seeing -7 for SF and -7.5 for KC.
   506. McCoy Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:51 PM (#5915031)
The planned false start I believe cost the Seahawks a chance at a hail Mary.
   507. puck Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:52 PM (#5915032)
Green Bay was crazy good on all those 3rd and longs. Or Seattle crazy bad, or both.
   508. McCoy Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:53 PM (#5915033)
I'm pretty sure they're going to have to make the time stoppage something the defense's coach gets to decide.
   509. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5915036)
Stats in this game were pretty much dead even except for 3rd down conversions. They even ended up with the basically the same number of first downs, plays and yardage (passing yardage and rushing yardage both), turnovers (none) and time of possession.

edit: they didn't have quite the same number of rushing and passing plays, just total plays, so the shape of the offense was slightly different. Also, most of Seattle's rushing was Wilson.
   510. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 12, 2020 at 10:02 PM (#5915037)
Interesting tidbit this weekend: The team whose QB threw for the most yards lost all 4 games. That's not to say that that the QB who played better lost, because Mahomes was certainly outstanding.

The Niners killed Green Bay when they played them earlier this year even though Dee Ford was not healthy. Rodgers has oddly never played all that well against SF in San Fran.

I expect the Niners win the game but GB does have the better QB IMO.
   511. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: January 12, 2020 at 10:05 PM (#5915038)
508--Billy Pats did that thing earlier this season then had a meltdown when Vrabel did the same ####### thing. But yes, this loophole needs to go
   512. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 12, 2020 at 11:49 PM (#5915050)
Vrabel (well, Vrabel’s offense, anyway) also called a QB read option at the goal line which Tannehill ran in for a touchdown while Lamar Jackson was busy puking all over himself. I can’t wait to see what he comes up with to troll Andy Reid next week.
   513. dave h Posted: January 12, 2020 at 11:50 PM (#5915051)
I know everyone hates the Pats and Belichick and they deserve no benefit of the doubt, but he pretty clearly used that trick to show that it was messed up (okay, maybe also so everyone knew he is smarter than them). They were winning 33-0, so it didn't have any chance of changing the outcome, it just shortened the game (which presumably everyone including the Jets could get behind). In the press conference he then said that it was a loophole and they should change the rule. If he really wanted a tactical advantage out of it he would have waited and not shown everyone how to do it.
   514. Moeball Posted: January 17, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5917061)
Wow, no detailed insights/analysis/predictions for this weekend's games?

OK I'll start it off then.
TEN 24 KC 17
SF 27 GB 14

No scientific analysis, just random predictions.
   515. Howie Menckel Posted: January 17, 2020 at 08:30 PM (#5917085)
I am at a publicly-available 53-35-5 against the NFL point spreads this season, including 4-0 last week - so a silly 59.7 pct. That was 5 picks of my choice per week, plus each playoff game. 13-4-1 the past 3 weeks, which is preposterous.

I know football, sure. BUT I DON'T RECOMMEND THAT YOU WAGER ON THESE PICKS because if I could do this routinely......

full disclosure: was at 55 pct or so last season through 10 weeks, then piled a 1-4 on top of an 0-5 and finished slightly under .500 for the season.

did I get smarter this year? or just luckier? an actual expert told me that if I can clear 55 pct again next season, I MIGHT be on to something. so "too soon," as they say.

anyway, I like both the Titans and Packers getting 7.5 points each - and would not be shocked if either won the game.

if I start laying out rationales, I'm afraid someone will actually get their wallets out - and I can't handle that sort of pressure! :)
#entertainmentpurposesonly

(bonus points: I'll be in Nashville Super Bowl weekend, so that would be interesting [game is in Miami] but also Broadway would be overrun like the NFL draft x 10. I'm probably much better off with the Chiefs, although for game day we have a place already rented out.)

   516. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:09 PM (#5917098)
I'm backing Tennessee +7 and San Francisco -7.5. I don't feel great about either one, though, because (1) Andy Reid playoff games are ALWAYS bizarre and no one should ever bet money on one under any circumstances, and (2) the Packers can definitely win; in fact, now that McCarthy is gone, I think it's likely that if the game is close at the end the Packers likely will win.
   517. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:55 PM (#5917104)
Chiefs 41, Titans 14 It's been a fun ride for Tennessee, but even with Derrick Henry at full force, they don't score nearly as many points as the Chiefs do. And there's no guarantee that Henry is still going to be at full force.

49ers 21, Packers 17 I'm not impressed by the 49ers offense, but I am by their defense, and I don't expect Aaron Rodgers to be able to do much of anything against them.
   518. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 17, 2020 at 11:04 PM (#5917107)
I don't know much about football in general and what I know is about my favorite team, so FWIW.

The 49ers are really healthy in general, especially on defense. When they started the season, their defense was dominant but slipped significantly with Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford being hurt. That was exacerbated by Tartt being hurt as well later in the season. Ford being back allows them to rotate lineman a bit more which really helps their pass rush. The difference between the 49ers being fully healthy with respect to defense is the difference between a great defense and a good one.

Kittle is their best offensive player and he's dominant as a catcher and a blocker, Sanders and Samuel are their best receivers and they are solid in general. Bourne gets open and seems to have a knack for scoring touchdowns but drops are a problem.

Jimmy G turns the ball over more than you'd like but he's an efficient passer. He's not an elite QB but he doesn't cost the 49ers games.

My guess is that the Niners win by 27-21.
   519. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 17, 2020 at 11:26 PM (#5917109)
Ford was generally pretty productive before being felled by a hamstring injury. The 2018 Pro Bowler racked up 6.5 sacks across 226 snaps during the regular season, but he also helped free up opportunities for others. Nick Bosa had seven sacks across 164 snaps with Ford on the field but just two on 570 snaps without his 49ers teammate. Ford generated a sack and two knockdowns on 22 snaps in his return to the lineup against the Vikings in the divisional round, and the 49ers will have to hope he can contribute similar production in a limited role against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game

This is from a Bill Banwell article.
   520. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: January 17, 2020 at 11:54 PM (#5917112)
I am a Nocal boy but Wisky roots. GB magic spirits a win
   521. JJ1986 Posted: January 18, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5917155)
I like Mahomes, but don't have any stake in any of these teams. I do like watching the 49ers because of how often they use 21 personnel. Juice-check was just erasing linebackers last week in the running game.
   522. Howie Menckel Posted: January 18, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5917165)
I used to expect the broadcasts to inundate us with references to his father Pat Mahomes, a MLB pitcher from 1992-2003 - mainly with the Twins and Mets (and a rough 84 ERA+).

but not so much. I guess if his son plays in the Super Bowl, Dad will be a constant 'pull.'
   523. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 19, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5917392)
Three drive sustaining offsides in the first half, and defensive pass interference on a short "just get a couple extra yards for the field goal" route on 3rd and 22 that doesn't even prevent the receiver from catching the ball, handing Tennessee four free points.

This sure is an Andy Reid team in a playoff game, all right.
   524. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: January 19, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5917397)
wow; mahomes looked like a prime donovan mcnabb on that one.
   525. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5917417)
KC's just too good for Tennessee. The game isn't even as close as the score. Or it wasn't, until that TD. 18 points is about right for the relative team performances today.
   526. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5917420)
KC had to play for the fake punt, so WTF.
   527. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5917421)
Tennessee should have called a time out. 35 seconds gone, and if they are going to win, they can't let KC get the ball back, so there is no way they can use it on defense now. I don't understand what they saved it for
   528. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5917424)
The back judge took a hit on the punt coverage. The two gunners that ran into him were annoyed he was in their way as they were trying to keep the ball from going into the end zone (and in truth, what was the back judge doing right there? That's terrible positioning.) Immediately after the play, two other KC players came over to make sure the back judge was ok, while the gunners were walking away shaking their heads in disbelief.
   529. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:08 PM (#5917425)
Tyrann Mathieu is 5'9, 174, and he has been blowing people up all day.
   530. Howie Menckel Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5917426)
early 3rd quarter in a 21-17 game, Chiefs lead, and Reid throws the challenge flag on a 3rd-and-2 called incomplete around his own 30 yard line. it's really close, but he wins it - so he gets 4 yards and a 1st down. Tony Romo calls it a HUGE play, lol. so huge that three plays later, the Chiefs have to punt anyway and the challenge is long forgotten.

Tony, you know what would be HUGE? if the Chiefs were down by one score in the final 2 minutes - but then run out of clock because they wasted a timeout on a pretty meaningless 3rd quarter play.

it sure seems like the gods won't let Andy Reid win the big one until someone explains to him the enormous potential value of second-half timeouts.

and clearly, he still doesn't get it.
   531. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5917428)
early 3rd quarter in a 21-17 game, Chiefs lead, and Reid throws the challenge flag on a 3rd-and-2 called incomplete around his own 30 yard line. it's really close, but he wins it - so he gets 4 yards and a 1st down. Tony Romo calls it a HUGE play, lol. so huge that three plays later, the Chiefs have to punt anyway and the challenge is long forgotten.

Tony, you know what would be HUGE? if the Chiefs were down by one score in the final 2 minutes - but then run out of clock because they wasted a timeout on a pretty meaningless 3rd quarter play.

it sure seems like the gods won't let Andy Reid win the big one until someone explains to him the enormous potential value of second-half timeouts.

and clearly, he still doesn't get it.


So Andy Reid easily wins the AFC championship, after making a good call on a challenge, and this is your response? That he doesn't get it? Because if the game had turned out completely differently, it might have been a bad call?

I mean, Vrabel, whose team was actually losing, really did call a timeout for no apparent reason late in the game... and your response is that REID doesn't get it?
   532. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:29 PM (#5917429)
Not only that, based on the original replays before he threw the flag, it looked like it had a high chance of being overturned and if so, result in a first down. I think it was correct to challenge since it was not at all a 50/50 play.
   533. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5917430)
   534. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 19, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5917431)
I think the NFL would be better off if it borrowed from the NHL's example on reviews: If you challenge and the call isn't overturned, you get a 15 yard penalty.

If they did that, I don't think a limit on challenges would be necessary. Go ahead, Coach, throw that red flag. Do you feel lucky?
   535. Nasty Nate Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:06 PM (#5917434)
So we can use hindsight to say that the first down wasn't important, but we can't use hindsight to point out that the challenge did NOT cost him a timeout and that the Chiefs didn't need timeouts anyway?

I like mocking Reid's clock foibles as much as the next guy, but this is grasping at straws.
   536. Hot Wheeling American Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5917435)
So Andy Reid easily wins the AFC championship, after making a good call on a challenge, and this is your response? That he doesn't get it? Because if the game had turned out completely differently, it might have been a bad call?

I mean, Vrabel, whose team was actually losing, really did call a timeout for no apparent reason late in the game... and your response is that REID doesn't get it?

x2
   537. Zach Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:20 PM (#5917437)
It was a good challenge. If the call stood, the Chiefs would punt immediately. Overturned, and they have a new set of downs. The offense was rolling except for a few third down drops. Tennessee's run game is a big factor in a close game, but would disappear if KC could open up a gap. Saving time outs for a hypothetical two minute drill is playing to lose.
   538. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:20 PM (#5917438)
I like mocking Reid's clock foibles as much as the next guy, but this is grasping at straws.

Yep. I like making fun of Andy Reid's game management as much as the next guy. But turning a punt into a first down, on a high percentage challenge, is a no brainer. That's when you should use your challenges. Possessions are about the most important thing in football. And there is no sense on sitting on 2 challenges, for two better opportunities, that probably will never come.

I would guess in this particular matchup, that challenge probably had an EV of around 3.5 points. That Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense then didn't go another 60 yards for a score is neither here nor there.
   539. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5917439)
I am starting to think the 49ers are better than the Packers.
   540. Zach Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:42 PM (#5917441)
I don't know which I'm happiest for: Reid, Mahomes, or Vrable's weiner.
   541. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:50 PM (#5917445)
155 yards rushing for the 49ers in the first half. That plus a great defense and they could have the worst QB in the league and win easily.
   542. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:50 PM (#5917446)
Worst conference championship game beatdowns:

Eagles 38, Vikings 7 (2017 season)
Panthers 49, Cardinals 15 (2015)
Patriots 45, Colts 7 (2014)
Giants 41, Vikings 0 (2000)
Redskins 41, Lions 10 (1991)
Bills 51, Raiders 3 (1990)

This one's headed for the list.
   543. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 07:53 PM (#5917447)
GB saving their time outs for the locker room.

edit: or, I guess they figured something would go wrong, might as well not give the niners more time to score.
   544. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:00 PM (#5917449)
Did I say 155 yards rushing? I meant 185.
   545. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:02 PM (#5917450)
Green Bay's front seven have just been getting blown off the line again and again and again tonight. San Francisco's blocking has been utterly dominant.
   546. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:04 PM (#5917451)
The Niners are dominating the line of scrimmage on both defense and offense. Nothing else matters.
   547. Red Menace Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:14 PM (#5917454)
Worst conference championship game beatdowns:

Eagles 38, Vikings 7 (2017 season)
Panthers 49, Cardinals 15 (2015)
Patriots 45, Colts 7 (2014)
Giants 41, Vikings 0 (2000)
Redskins 41, Lions 10 (1991)
Bills 51, Raiders 3 (1990)

This one's headed for the list.


Other than the Redskins those teams all went on to lose the Super Bowl.

Edit: Oh, yeah. How soon I forget the '17 Eagles. And I thought that was a Patriots loss year. So 3-3
   548. Howie Menckel Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:26 PM (#5917455)
533 is a fine example of: "You have 1,500 words to defend the largely indefensible - GO!"

then it concedes a bunch of obvious and brutal examples because there is no way to deny it, while adding some legitimate points - almost to the point of being persuasive (he does choose good plays coming out of a timeout, though I don't see that as a bigger positive than having the timeout late). kind of like listening to a defense attorney's case before cross-examination.

as for the odds of an overturn today, there were multiple early replays - not all of which leaned in Reid's direction - as he threw the flag from the opposite side of the field.

also conveniently overlooked here: if you throw the flag there and lose, then even if you win the next one later, you're out of challenges (also down to two maximum even if you win it, btw, so even a win there isn't a 100 pct 'win'). that can be a major difference-maker as well.

but it's all good. I never thought I'd live long enough to see teams stop punting on 4th-and-1 on the opposing 35 to 40 yard line, for instance. And I don't recall a lot of "AMEN, BROTHER!" comments on that one.

At least my "don't always save your best reliever for the 9th inning" gripe got better backing here over the years - and here we are.

my next goal is for teams to stop using their closer with a 3-run lead (especially if the bottom of the order is coming up) if doing so will or probably leave him unavailable for the next 2 days. a boy's gotta dream.....
   549. Hot Wheeling American Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5917456)
Forget it, folks. It’s Howietown.
   550. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:33 PM (#5917457)
533 is a fine example of: "You have 1,500 words to defend the largely indefensible - GO!"

So is 548. Though I guess you couldn't quite get up to 1500.
   551. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5917458)
he threw the flag from the opposite side of the field.
? The head coach can't see anything from the sideline, and any who trusts his eyes on the play live is a fool. They have guys up on the booth watching these on replay. All the replays I saw before the challenge flag looked like he got the feet down.

More or less agree on the article though.
   552. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5917459)
I don't think the Niners want to throw the ball anymore today.
   553. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:39 PM (#5917460)
also conveniently overlooked here: if you throw the flag there and lose, then even if you win the next one later, you're out of challenges (also down to two maximum even if you win it, btw, so even a win there isn't a 100 pct 'win').


If you're a fool for risking a timeout by throwing the first challenge flag, you'd be a fool for risking a timeout by throwing the second challenge flag too. So why does it matter how many you have left?
   554. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:40 PM (#5917461)
I don't think the Niners want to throw the ball anymore today.

Maybe KS has learned some game management lessons from SB51.
   555. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:40 PM (#5917462)
Mostert is already in the top 20 for single game rushing yards in the playoffs.
   556. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:41 PM (#5917463)
Well, that has to be revised way up. Just outside the top 10 now. Actually tied for 9th, just ahead of Derrick Henry last week.

14 more yards for Mostert, and only the 248 yards by Dickerson In 1986 will have been more. Game's changed a lot in 34 years, but Dickerson did it in 34 carries. Mostert has 19 so far.
   557. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5917464)
Raheem Mostert has more touchdowns in this game than he did in his entire senior year at Purdue.
   558. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:50 PM (#5917465)
49ers have an additional 68 rushing yards from other players, so must be pushing the most ever for a team in a playoff game.
   559. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5917466)
Piling on, but:
EdjSports
@edjsports
4h4 hours ago

The #Chiefs would gain over 10% GWC if Andy Reid wins this challenge, assuming a punt on the potential 4th down.
   560. stanmvp48 Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:02 PM (#5917467)
I guess I don't understand going for two there
   561. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:07 PM (#5917468)
The old delay of game on 4th and 1. They can't get a yard on the ground, at least for the fans? Not that it's such a bad play up 21 with this much time left, but still.

(Still probably was a bad play by win exp not to go for it, even up 21, just much less bad.)
   562. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:11 PM (#5917469)
205 for Mostert puts him at #4 all time for a single playoff game. Needs 5 more to have #2 to himself.
   563. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:11 PM (#5917471)
Maybe KS has learned some game management lessons from SB51.


Then again, maybe not. Run, run, run, punt--that's probably all we're going to see from the 49ers the rest of the way.

Not one soul on God's green earth believed for a second they were going to run a play on that 4th-and-1.
   564. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:17 PM (#5917474)
Good God, the 49ers might actually blow this.
   565. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:18 PM (#5917475)
Should have gone for 2. Not that it will matter, but should have.
   566. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:21 PM (#5917476)
In that SF/GB Kaep game in the playoffs in 2013, the 49ers had 323 yards rushing, 181 by Kaep. I don't think that's the team playoff record either.
   567. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:23 PM (#5917477)
Mostert has 2nd all by himself now. Just Dickerson ahead of him.
   568. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5917479)
That most likely closes the book on Mostert and the 49ers rushing. They'll kneel down if they get the ball back. 220 yards for Mostert on 29 carries, and 288 for the 49ers.
   569. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:42 PM (#5917482)
I watch a lot of college football (including lots of Big Ten football), Mostert couldn't really find the field at Purdue as a RB. He was a heckuva KR, but was really a T&F guy.
   570. stanmvp48 Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:49 PM (#5917484)
SB point spread?Feels like a tossup to me
   571. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 19, 2020 at 10:04 PM (#5917485)
First line I saw was Chiefs -1.5. Super Bowl spreads often move quickly and significantly after opening, though.
   572. Meatwad Posted: January 19, 2020 at 10:54 PM (#5917495)
This years superbowl is the ballte for Montana. Or in techmo QB Chiefs.
   573. Zach Posted: January 20, 2020 at 12:40 AM (#5917503)
One thing I've found low-key amusing about the last couple of years is how Joe Montana suddenly remembers he used to be a Chief, too.

(To be fair: I liked him as a Chief, and I totally understand why he thinks of himself as about 99% 49er. But I think at some point after seeing Mahomes play he must have gone digging in his closet.)
   574. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 20, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5917586)
The Detroit Tigers actually drafted Patrick Mahomes when he was 19, which means they are better at drafting QBs than the Lions are.
   575. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 20, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5917592)
Found a playoff game where Vick's falcons rushed for 327 yards (2004, against the Rams. Vick had 119). Still doesn't seem to be the record though.

edit: Wikipedia says it was Chicago against Washington in 1940. 380 yards in the famous 73-0 victory.
   576. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 20, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5917595)
   577. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 20, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5917596)
You know you can just PI that in 30 seconds on pro-football reference right? You don't need a sub (at least for now).
http://pfref.com/tiny/OwOaA

The 3 games ahead of the Falcons-Rams were:
Chicago @ Washington 1940 (as you mentioned) 381
Bills v Dolphins 1995 WC game 341
Cowboys v Rams 1980 WC game 338
   578. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 20, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5917602)
Thanks, I never before looked into the query feature on the Ref sites. Very useful.

edit: Don't yet see a similar feature on FBRef.com (which is fairly new, so maybe no surprise). Is there one?

   579. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 20, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5917609)
Not that I can see. I assume the sheer amount of leagues involved makes it all a bit more convoluted to set up for European football.

I also read a post on the basketball thread, that Sean has announced that PI for all of their sites will be going behind a paywall soon (same as baseball ref PI is now). So don't get too used to it!
   580. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 21, 2020 at 12:09 AM (#5917710)
I have to say that I am a little bit surprised at the "Dilferization" of Jimmy G that I have seen over the last week or so. He was 5th in the league in completion percentage, third in the league in yards per attempt, and threw for nearly 4000 yards on a team that likes to run the ball more than most. He's not Mahomes but he's a pretty good QB on a very good team.
   581. JJ1986 Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:33 AM (#5917784)
I do not understand how Football Outsiders has the Chiefs as 57% favorites to win. They have the teams pretty close in overall valuation and I think the 49ers have more players who have returned from injury. If anything, I'd have SF as a slight favorite.
   582. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5917787)
Isn't their playoff odds number just a reflection of their DVOA rankings (weighted or non I don't know)? KC is slightly ahead of SF in DVOA. Do they take into account anything else, like injuries?

FWIW, the current middle of the money line is KC at 54.5%
   583. Moeball Posted: January 30, 2020 at 03:43 AM (#5920395)
Last I saw Vegas had KC as a 2 point favorite. I don't see it. SF is a better balanced team and I thought more money would have come in by now that would have swung the odds in favor of the Niners. I agree that Mahomes runs a potent offense and he'll put points on the board, but I just don't see how so many seem to think they should be the favorite.
   584. Nasty Nate Posted: January 30, 2020 at 09:14 AM (#5920411)
I'm seeing 1.5 or even 1 point spreads. Being better balanced and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee.

KC 31 - SF 23
   585. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 30, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5920435)
It's interesting to note that historically, when a team renowned for its offense plays a team renowned for its defense in the Super Bowl, the Offense team has usually been the point spread favorite, but the Defense team has almost always won.

I would never dream of betting actual money against this Kansas City team, but nevertheless I think a San Francisco win is more likely. Both because of the above, and because the San Francisco offense is better than the Kansas City defense.

San Francisco 30, Kansas City 26

I fear that if Kansas City doesn't win this game, Andy Reid will forever be the best coach not the Hall of Fame.
   586. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 30, 2020 at 11:01 AM (#5920444)
I fear that if Kansas City doesn't win this game, Andy Reid will forever be the best coach not the Hall of Fame.

Well, duh. He has lost twice as many games as Jimmy Johnson. QED.
   587. DCA Posted: January 30, 2020 at 11:12 AM (#5920447)
While 12-4 and 13-3 are not historically great records, the 49ers lost their 3 games by a combined 13 points (10 points in regulation) and the Chiefs lost their 4 games by a combined 23 points. No losses by more than 7 points by either team. I wonder if that's typical?

Among the other five 11+ win teams that didn't make it to the super bowl, all lost big at least once in the regular season (and Ravens and Packers again in the playoffs): the 12-4 Patriots got blown out by the Ravens, the 14-2 Ravens got stomped by the Browns and Titans, the 13-3 Packers got abused by 49ers twice and the Chargers, the 13-3 Saints lost big to the Rams and Falcons, and the 11-5 Seahawks were soundly beaten by the Ravens, Rams, and Cardinals.
   588. Howie Menckel Posted: January 30, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5920452)
49ers, 28-20
   589. SoSH U at work Posted: January 30, 2020 at 11:23 AM (#5920453)
I can't imagine Andy Reid not making the Hall at this point.

   590. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: January 30, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5920494)
I can't imagine Andy Reid not making the Hall at this point.
i feel the same way about andre iguodala.
   591. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 30, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5920518)
I fear that if Kansas City doesn't win this game, Andy Reid will forever be the best coach not the Hall of Fame.

I had no idea both he and Mahomes announced they were retiring at the end of this game.
   592. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 30, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5920523)
There are only seven coaches in NFL history who have won more than 200 games. They're all in the Hall of Fame except for Bill Belichick and Andy Reid.

Reid gets dinged for his playoff performance, but it's not like he has a bad record there, either: It's at 14-14 right now. He's got a better playoff winning percentage than Hall of Famers Tony Dungy and Bud Grant. Or George Allen, for that matter - I didn't realize this till just now, but the two playoff games leading up to Super Bowl VII against the unbeaten Dolphins were the only playoff games Allen ever won as a coach.
   593. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 30, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5920526)
More fun stuff you learn when you look at coaches' records: Bill Belichick has never coached a tie.
   594. puck Posted: February 02, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5921156)
Did SF decide to "defer" after winning the coin toss instead of choosing a side or whether to receive? I assume that was a mistake.
   595. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 02, 2020 at 06:54 PM (#5921159)
Did SF decide to "defer" after winning the coin toss instead of choosing a side or whether to receive? I assume that was a mistake.


No, deferring is correct. You defer your right to choose until the second half, allowing the other team to choose in the first half.

Just a few weeks ago the Cowboys made the big mistake--they won the toss and chose to kick off. Which actually by rule meant their opponent got to choose what to do to start the second half, thus to receive the kickoff to start both halves.

The league office intervened and ordered the referee to ignore the rule and let the Cowboys receive the second half kickoff.
   596. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: February 02, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5921160)
No, defer is the right thing to do, if you want to kick first. It's a stupid rule the way it is done though, but it is what it is.
   597. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 02, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5921161)
What IS it with Andy Reid teams being unable to stay onside?
   598. JJ1986 Posted: February 02, 2020 at 06:56 PM (#5921162)
Ew
   599. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: February 02, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5921165)
Crazy. Since the ball was knocked loose, he has to lose the first down, right? Mahomes probably should be holding then ball a little better than that, and might want to consider sliding earlier or not at all.
   600. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 02, 2020 at 07:10 PM (#5921167)
That was such a beautiful fourth down play.
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