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Sunday, January 08, 2023
OT - 2022 NFL thread Part II
Under the first proposal that was voted through, the AFC Championship will now be played at a neutral-site game if any of the three following scenarios are met:
Scenario 1: If Buffalo and Kansas City both win or both tie in Week 18, then a Buffalo vs. Kansas City championship game would be at a neutral site.
Scenario 2: If the Bills and Chiefs both lose in Week 18 and Baltimore wins or ties with the Bengals, then a Buffalo vs. Kansas City championship game would be at a neutral site.
Scenario 3: If Buffalo and Kansas City both lose and Cincinnati beats Baltimore, then a Bills or Bengals vs. Chiefs championship game would be at a neutral site.
Lance Reddick! Lance him!
Posted: January 08, 2023 at 10:01 AM | 513 comment(s)
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the eagles have 4 defenders with 10+ sacks, plus fletcher cox (who 'only' had 7 as a 310 lb DT), plus ndamukong suh (who signed midseason, but had 6 sacks last year), plus robert quinn (who's been injured the last 3 months, but had 18 sacks last year), plus 2 more 340 lb run-stuffing DTs. this defensive line is absolutely stacked.
they also have the league leader in interceptions (safety cj gardner johnson, who only played 12 games) and two pro-bowl corners (darius slay and james bradberry).
so far, i've only seen 3 ways to beat the eagles:
1: jalen hurts is injured
2: the eagles' offense (with or without hurts) turns the ball over
3: the defense can't get off the field on 3rd/4th downs.
1: would have to happen mid-game at this point. SF can make their own luck there.
2: SF is very good at forcing turnovers, so they have a legit chance at making this happen.
3: george kittle is SF's biggest matchup advantage, imo. he should have about 15 targets today. but: kyle shanahan is kind of known for being an orange on 4th down; this is the kind of game where that will haunt him.
- SF's OL is very good at run blocking, but questionable versus a good pass rush.
- PHI's offensive line has two future hall of famers and three more above-average/pro-bowl caliber starters.
and special teams:
- SF has an advantage on returns, but the punt/kick coverage and FG kicking is very slightly in the eagles' favor, imo.
hopefully, that's "just" a separated shoulder, rather than a broken collarbone. or neither, if that's on the menu.
*edit*
and he's back on the field. whew.
one team is using pagers they bought out of the back of a van; the other one is using cybertronic telekinesis.
Maybe it's starting to click why punt returners are fair catching inside the 10 more often.
great tackling there, defense. you only hit him 4 times; no need to actually take him down to the ground.
And a previous Eagles kick hit at the six and bounced into the end zone. As long as we're sure enoughing.
I wasn't watching. Was it a short-ish punt with a gunner lurking? Because those are key considerations.
There was someone somewhat close. It ran along the sideline and stayed in, bouncing into the end zone.
There are obviously some cases, such as where it's a short high punt and the gunners have gotten in behind the return man, where it's a fine play. But way too often guys are calling fair catches while the punt team is in front of them. Those don't strike me as good percentage plays. And the Dallas one last week was on the dumb side, given the circumstances.
also, the passing game isn't very sharp right now, because their short/intermediate routes aren't there.
and the booth catches it. they're talking him off the field.
looks like we've got another bodybag game on our hands.
and purdy's coming back on the field. christian mccaffery is their emergency QB.
several people on Twitter say it's George Santos - have not yet confirmed
;)
i suspect this will get lost in the retelling of what happened here, but SF's QBs are getting hammered every time they drop back because this eagles pass rush is bringing violence.
i don't think aj brown is healthy. i think he has hip, or a groin, or a hamstring, because he doesn't have any explosiveness in his route running.
Come on, it's a lot easier to rush the QBs when they don't have to worry about a QB who can complete a pass longer than 10 yard down the field. They might be awesome but today is not evidence either way.
SF's pass coverage has held up extremely well today, despite (because of) the penalties they've committed (gotten away with).
they just aren't able to block the eagles' pass rush. even if purdy and johnson could've stayed healthy, they'd still be getting ass-hammered on every drop back. the pass rush is THE WHOLE ####### REASON SF can't complete a pass longer than 10 yards downfield.
why isn't purdy healthy? because he got hammered.
why isn't johnson healthy? because he got ####### hammered.
the hammering was not going to stop as long as SF had a healthy QB on the field.
The Eagles did what they should do playing the Niners who were limited today.
38-7 W in the divisional round.
31-7 W (so far) in the championship round.
but yeah... right... "luck".
The Eagles did what they should do playing the Niners who were limited today.
I don't know why this lead to this comment:
16-1 with jalen hurts at QB this year (so far).
38-7 W in the divisional round.
31-7 W (so far) in the championship round.
but yeah... right... "luck".
I was talking about the 49ers not the Eagles.
The Eagles did what they should do against a team that was extremely limited at QB. If you want to say it was skill that Purdy got hurt, I won't argue against you. The game would probably have been more competitive if Purdy didn't get hurt but that's not what happened.
I am rather confident that this is the last time any NFL playoff game will feature any team with only two active QBs. and I would expect the 3rd QB slot not to impact the active roster limit, either.
that's because it's in the NFL's best interest, as an entertainment product, to take the strategy away from coaches. (this is particularly important because, while decades too late, the league finally has realized that a QB whose head lands with a thud is likely concussed and has no business being on the field.)
not that it was going to change the outcome, but that game is up there for the most unwatchable second halves of a conference title game I have ever seen.
Trent Williams always has been a dirty player, and it could impact his HOF chances - which otherwise are rather good as far as accolades go.
Sure, but how good is the average third string quarterback going to be anyhow, especially when he might not have a rep with the first team offense is weeks or months?
Obviously, it's extremely likely that Purdy is QB1 next year and there's probably not much Lance can do about it.
it makes the game perhaps moderately watchable - second and 1, and the extra QB throws an unexpected rope 50 yards down the sidelines for a TD.
not that it's likely, but at least it's not impossible like it was today. and for the average fan, that adds a little appeal.
i know they changed that rule a decade ago when they updated the practice squad rules, but (and i could be wrong about this next part) i think they reverted that change more recently.
"the eagles are the only NFL team that has 4 players who've been on their roster for more than a decade (jason kelce, lane johnson, brandon graham and fletcher cox)."
"the eagles' 22 starters in week 1 are the same 22 starters who played today"
edit: and you only have to go back one year where the Titans were notoriously considered one of the worst #1 seeds ever, and then duly proceeded to lose their first game in the playoffs.
noone is ever ready for FULL 57i66135.
tis true - and now we're headed back to it.
Assuming the Chiefs make it. Far from a certainty.
This has been a great game.
KC ran their ####### play.
you can't just ####### give them another, like it didn't ####### happen.
oh, an extra play wasn't enough for you to get the job done? here, just have a first down, on us
Didn't ultimately matter. Mahomes' ankle has definitely been an issue.
(this post was not referring to the INT)
i think i'd rather face CIN in the super bowl, but i also don't really care which team makes it.
And the Bengals just shrug it off and convert.
The anti-1985-Cardinals.
"the andy reid bowl"
#### off, jim nantz.
also:
leon lett is rolling over in his grave at the thought that his place in history has been stolen by derek barnett.
great game, and clearly a penalty - but that is an incredibly unsatisfying way for such a game to be decided. not a cheap shot and Mahomes with a little embellishment. but still the ref had no choice.
got most of the foul taste out from the debacle that was the first game, 'til then.....
also, there will be a job opening at the Empire State Building at 9 am Monday, with the pending vacancy of the person who decided to light the landmark up green tonight to "honor" the Eagles victory.
might be multiple openings - no sense in taking any chances, so fire everyone to be on the safe side.
unfortunately, any cursory examination of my 15+ years of receipts on this message board will prove at least one thing: i'm quite deranged. unplugging is not one of my skills.
(Of course watching the replay he gives him a shove so I get why they call it. I think if he just sort of throws his arms up a bit they don't throw a flag on incidental contact.)
that's not what happened here.
that guy saw red. the only thing in the world that mattered to him in that moment was putting a hit on mahomes. it's why he twisted his knee going down; it's why he kneecapped some rando on the sideline; it's why he crashed, spine first, into the sideline furniture. the guy had no awareness of anything around him; he just wanted to put mahomes down hard.
Philly is a worthy Super Bowl team and, watching the second game, I thought they would handle either AFC team, subject to Mahomes making a near-full recovery in the next two weeks.
note to television censors:
never give a kelce a hot mic.
note to television producers:
never take the camera off a kelce.
(the greatest speech ever given by a kelce)
counterpoint.
Two Super Bowl appearances (and possibly two titles) in five years, with the second coming three months after a Phillies World Series appearance. It's just too much to bear.
Bengals fans (and, honestly, fans of other teams) are going nuts over the officiating, though it seems like most of the questionable calls ultimately didn't matter. The only one where I think they got hosed was the punt return at the end (you may remember the Bengals special teams coach going nuts), where there was a clear block in the back and a hold on the same Bengals player. However, I wouldn't be surprised if that were true of every punt return, so I'm not sure how much of an issue it was.
I think it was in the third quarter when Cincy was about to challenge a call and the refs met and reversed the original decision, saving Cincy a challenge. Absent something particularly egregious (NO/LAR a few years ago), ref-bashing and conspiracies about the league directing referee decisions is so lame.
The pass interference spot foul and 15 yards for roughing/taunting are so harsh, but that push on Mahomes gets called nearly every time.
saying that it's "blessed" is more than a little patronizing, given the planning that had to have been in place for it to happen that way.
no, SF was not at midfield. that play was initially ruled an incomplete pass on the field, but after the eagles staff (unlike SF's) got off their asses and threw a challenge flag, the replay showed that the ball was stripped out of purdy's hand before it moved forward, and the play was ruled a fumble, recovered by the eagles (recovered by a DT, btw, 10 yards downfield, who had the presence of mind to jump on the loose ball while other players were standing around). which means that SF's offense was not at midfield; they were on the bench. right. ndamukong suh blowing through a lineman with one move, and defenestrating the QB is something that every team could do, if they really wanted to.
look at where haason reddick lined up on his strip/sack of brock purdy. look at the extension of his body before he makes contact. i can count on one hand the number of pass rushers who could cover that much ground before purdy would finish his release; reddick got there before purdy even finished his wind up. that is violence at work. that is intent. if you don't see violence here, it's not because your eye is unbiased or neutral; it's because your eye is untrained.
By DVOA, the Eagles had the easiest schedule of any team this past season.
as a follow up, do the circumstances (3rd and long, v. 1st and 10; playoffs v. regular season) change whether or not you think that play should be penalized?
I thought that might be the play you were referring to, which I wondered about as it happened. It seems like kind of a combo penalty, taking a little from "late hit" and a little from "unnecessary roughness."
As for the situation, I'm much more bothered by borderline defensive holding calls on third and long that result in an automatic first down, particularly in cases where the QB is pressured/sacked and the hold was insignificant. But I only get irked by late hit/UR penalties if they were called incorrectly (like the Brady roughing pass against the Falcons earlier this year), rather than the circumstances in which they occur.
W @ ARI 20-17
W @ HOU 29-17
W @ IND 17-16
W @ CHI 25-20
those are not the scores of a team that was fattening up on the little sisters of the poor. in fact, the eagles average margin of victory in those 4 wins (+4.8) is lower than their overall margin of victory (+7.8), which includes their 3 losses and 8 games vs. teams with winning records.
right.
if that had been penalized, i know my instant reaction would have been "oh, for ####'s sake...", but i think my followup would have been split 70/30 between "what a stupid ####### penalty" and "just let these ####### guys play".
given that it was the playoffs, given that it was 3rd and long, and given that the hit was more of a shove than a *thud* (still dangerous, btw, but it wasn't the kind of egregiously violent late hit on a defenseless player that needs to be stamped out of the league), i think the refs were right to let it go. but even i would say it's really close.
Who would you take over Hurts? Allen, Mahomes, and? Or do you just think this year was a fluke for him?
if you open the viewfinder up to include older players and not just "for the next 5 years", you can add in a few guys like rodgers, brady, stafford, okafor, wilson, watson, wentz, foles.
and then, i don't think hurts is viewed as being "clearly better" than other young QBs like tua, justin fields, daniel jones, mac jones, trevor lawrence and (for whatever reason) daniel purdy. at this point, you'd probably rather have hurts than most of those guys, but then again, analysts spent the last two weeks twisting themselves into pretzels to argue that the eagles aren't akshually this good, so the gap is probably a lot smaller than you'd think.
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