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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, January 08, 2023OT - 2022 NFL thread Part II
Lance Reddick! Lance him!
Posted: January 08, 2023 at 10:01 AM | 514 comment(s)
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feels fine.
The ensuing freakout will be gold.
Still, this game is far from over, especially after that last drive.
But I guess the refs didn't see it that way.
if that play happens in an end-zone, is it a TD?
there's no fumble in the endzone. it's either a catch, or it's an incomplete pass.
i don't think it would (or should) be a catch (touchdown) in that situation, and so, whether it's intuitive or not, i don't think it should be a catch outside of the endzone.
Yes. Under any non-pro football definition. He caught the ball clearly and then it was knocked out of his hand. But, even if the rules governing catches have improved in recent years since the Dez Bryant debacle, the NFL's definition of a catch is still not what anyone over the age of five understands is a catch.
Should it be? Yes. Would it be? I don't think so.
and then their challenge was overruled anyway. classic andy reid game management there.
Sigh.
this play is the exact reason why the NFL's rules are what they are.
the fact that this wasn't a catch is a feature, not a bug.
That's a pretty good standard. I used to watch the NFL but for the past 10 years I've really only watched the Superbowl. I have no knowledge of what the rules are at this point. So when I'm watching a play like that, I'm just viewing it from a common sense non-fan type of thing. That was a catch.
The rule book has become a never ending explanation of "well accctually..."
At this point the game is close to even on a per-drive basis. Philly has had an extra drive and also gave up the free TD, which is why the score is what it is.
he should be going for 2 to try to get their lead up to 9 points.
trust your special teams.
trust your defense.
an 8 point lead is only 1 score.
Good game.
####### goddamn.
this is one hell of a game.
plays like that would have an outsized impact on the outcome of games if they were ruled the way this hypothetical "5 year old" thinks it should be. we've been through this. it's not good for anyone. it turns games and seasons and careers on flukes and technicalities that players don't have any actual control over.
You can agree with the way the current rule is written without the inanity.
I think.
Did Bud Selig script this one?
If we are practical and understand selective enforcement of the rules, I'm ...surprised they called that one.
Players adjust to the "real" rules and it makes for a terrible game. The NHL had to instruct the officials to call playoff games like regular season games (well more or less)
That one...was pretty ticky-tack IMO.
Agree 100%--the highlight of the football year for me has always been Conference Championship weekend. But now the NFL is going to move those to neutral sites as well and ruin everything.
Extremely agree. If Mahomes is hurt just send Henne out to run a couple sneaks--if you score, great, if you don't, that's OK too, you end up with a 19 yard field goal instead of 27. We're talking about the difference between maybe a 99.5% win probability and a 99.7%, granted. But still!
if you think it's bad on TV, it's much, much worse in person. have noted this before (a year ago?) but...
I have attended 3 Super Bowls, including the Giants vs undefeated Patriots in Arizona 15 years ago.
whenever the game went to commercials (which was often), the players just stood around with their hands on their hips, noticeably bored. eventually, they'd get into their actual huddles - with even less crowd noise than the relatively little you see during play on the broadcast.
the 4th quarter finally brought a modicum of excitement in the stands, but far below what one would expect, given the scenario.
The way the rule is phrased, only the bad/blatant ones ARE holding. You need 5 or 6 precise things to happen in order for something to be holding, and if just one of those is absent, it isn't holding.
It was a good call by Bradberry to try and get away with a hold. But it was a hold.
BTW, according to Caesar's Palace, I believe the payoff on Hurts getting 3 TDs was +2800!
-- the eagles' biggest advantage over, well, everyone, is the dominance of their offensive and defensive lines. i think both of those strengths were severely neutralized by the condition of that ####### field last night.
-- the ref threw the flag for defensive holding because he assumed the route was a crosser. he saw the change in direction, and he saw a "grab", and he threw the flag without processing that the change in direction was the route itself, rather than any meaningful obstruction from the defender.
Speaking as a neutral observer, I just wanted to see KC pound in a TD, and then see if Philly could march down the field and tie it with a minute-plus left and two timeouts. Or have KC settle for the FG and give Philly a chance to win it outright. It would have been a great capper to the game, which had been a classic up to that point, PGA crowd excitement notwithstanding.
Instead, we got KC killing the clock to set up a gimme FG. That was just a wet blanket.
Concur. There's no point in looking at replays of that hold in particular without context. We need to see all the other plays where similar acts were committed but without a call. Maybe they don't exist. We don't really know because the NFL does a terrible job (perhaps intentionally) of showing us the entire action of a play. Maybe this is happening off screen 30 times a game and we don't know because we're left in the dark.
In my opinion, the Eagles lost the game between 9:22 and 5:45 in the 4th quarter. They were down 8 and started at their own 25 with 9:22 left. I'd suggest 8 points is 1.5 scores: you need two good things to happen. Regardless, the best case scenario is that you're tying the game and giving KC the ball back. So, the goal has to be conserving enough time to get the ball back AFTER you give KC the ball.
Instead, they took almost 4 minutes to go from the 25 to the KC 47. 3 minutes and 37 seconds for 29 yards is not going to cut it. They started the drive with 3 runs! They were fortunate to then connect on a 45 yard pass but it was too late. KC got the ball with the perfect amount of time. They didn't have to rush, and if things went south (or very well), they could leisurely eat up clock.
I wouldn't know the numbers, but there's a window of time that's essentially the same for a final drive. KC getting the ball back with say 3 minutes is no different (for them) than 7 or 8. But the odds of getting the ball back change drastically outside that window. Philly needed to move faster, even if they were 100% guaranteed the 8 points to tie.
the eagles needed their defense to nut up and get a ####### stop. they didn't need to play this 4 dimensional chess bullshit; they just needed to get a ####### stop. that's it.
As it was their plan worked up until the holding call.
they also could have gone for a TD just before the end of the first half, and if it failed they would have gotten the same FG they wound up getting anyway.
15 seconds left, and a short gain, and then they run the clock down. struck me as weird. Hurts is excellent at finding a way to toss the ball away when necessary, stopping the clock with enough time left for that FG.
or did I misread that?
Hell, it's actually not all that unusual. Soldier Field had horrible turf for decades, back when it was artificial and even for decades when it was sod.
I'm trying to do the opposite. I'm suggesting that the Eagles had to act more desperate down 8, because it was highly likely that they'd need that 2nd possession on offense. It was highly likely that Philly would fail to score 8 and/or KC would score. By moving so slowly at first, the Eagles were banking on exactly 1 successful outcome: scoring 8 points and KC running out of time to score again.
2 timeouts + the 2 minute warning is enough time for KC to run their normal-ish offense to get into field goal territory. There was no scenario where KC would be stressed for time. So if time wasn't going to be valuable to KC, it could have only been valuable for Philly. And they wasted it.
Well, if the refs were letting holding instances go up to that point, and then decided to call that particular one, that's a form of "scripting".
Sure you can. Just play some defense and get a stop.
And when you get that stop, will you want more time on the clock to march up the field, or less?
When you have the ball you can burn extra time at your will. So it's almost impossible to have "too much" time in late game situations.
Not that this will change anybody's mind.
When you are behind by 7+ points, it's always bad percentages.
If you can't stop the Chiefs from driving, it's always bad percentages.
I'm with 57i66135 here. After the Chiefs took control of the game, the Eagles needed to a get a stop, or get lucky. The strategy was fine, but they didn't make the plays.
You're talking about something like a minute getting shaved maybe? At what cost? What happens if by hurrying they settle for a FG?
EDIT:
"And really the Eagles played it perfectly if they had gotten the stop."
They got extremely lucky with a blown coverage 45 yard pass. Without that play, it's much more likely that there's only enough time on the clock for one singular possession by the chiefs. In short, they needed to go 2 for 1, like in the NBA
isn't that what should have happened?
if not for the only holding call in the entire ####### game, KC would have been kicking a FG with 1:45 left on the clock. the eagles offense would have gotten the ball back, with more than enough time to drive down the field.
Anecdotally, it seems that most 2 for 1 attempts in the NBA result in a rushed first shot that misses, followed by a rushed second shot that misses.
Okay, but after the holding call, KC was able to run down the clock to almost zero and then kick the FG. If there's an extra minute on the clock, KC can't do that. They have to continue to play the game, knowing Philly is going to get the ball back with enough time to drive. And, with that much time left, maybe they can't just rely on the FG, b/c a TD could beat them.
Philly got the ball back with 6 or 8 seconds left. Wouldn't 1 minute and 8 seconds be infinitely better?
How much time is that versus actual time used?
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