Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, January 08, 2023

OT - 2022 NFL thread Part II

Under the first proposal that was voted through, the AFC Championship will now be played at a neutral-site game if any of the three following scenarios are met:

Scenario 1: If Buffalo and Kansas City both win or both tie in Week 18, then a Buffalo vs. Kansas City championship game would be at a neutral site.
Scenario 2: If the Bills and Chiefs both lose in Week 18 and Baltimore wins or ties with the Bengals, then a Buffalo vs. Kansas City championship game would be at a neutral site.
Scenario 3: If Buffalo and Kansas City both lose and Cincinnati beats Baltimore, then a Bills or Bengals vs. Chiefs championship game would be at a neutral site.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: January 08, 2023 at 10:01 AM | 514 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, off-topic

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 5 of 6 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 > 
   401. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:25 PM (#6116713)
ended the first half up 10 points, despite coughing up the absolute biggest ####### unforced error in the entire ####### playoffs.


feels fine.
   402. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:30 PM (#6116714)
C'mon, let's have a wardrobe malfunction.

The ensuing freakout will be gold.
   403. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:40 PM (#6116716)
You go into any Super Bowl pregame ceremony knowing that you're going to have to choke down a near-lethal dose of patriotism and military propaganda before being allowed to finally watch some damn football, because that's just the way things work. But even that hard-earned knowledge can't totally deaden the revulsion felt at seeing the league exploit Pat Tillman, once again, 19 years after his death.
[...]
This kind of thing has been happening in NFL stadiums and on NFL broadcasts for nearly two decades now, and each instance is more offensive than the last. Yes, Tillman was partially moved to joining the military by 9/11, but he also refused to let himself be used as a propaganda tool by the Bush administration after enlisting. Tillman also described the United States' invasion of Iraq as "all bullshit," and had planned to meet with anti-war intellectual Noam Chomsky after his tour of duty. Tillman was killed by friendly fire while deployed in Afghanistan in 2004—shot three times in the head by his fellow soldiers—and afterwards the military concocted a completely false story about how Tillman died while heroically charging up a hill. Tillman's body armor and journal were burned by his platoon mates within three days of his death; those same soldiers were told not to talk publicly about what had really happened; Tillman's family has repeatedly expressed anger at how his death was turned into pro-war propaganda.
[...]
One might hope that shame or the simple passage of time would eventually compel the NFL to stop exploiting Tillman's legacy in this specific way, but today's invocation was another reminder of how unlikely that is to happen. No amount of information about who Tillman was, what he really believed, and how he really died are enough to trump everything the NFL gains from pairing images of him in his NFL and military uniforms.

   404. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:56 PM (#6116721)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Great watching the biggest football game of the year played on a surface that is apparently covered in Crisco

   405. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:59 PM (#6116722)
The super bowl being at a neutral site,attended mainly by insiders and the connected, really saps the game's atmosphere, especially compared to the conference championships.
   406. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:59 PM (#6116723)
Kansas City was just hanging on in the first half. A few things did go Philly's way, but that was probably all more than offset by the unforced fumble touchdown.

Still, this game is far from over, especially after that last drive.
   407. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:01 PM (#6116724)
Think that was a fumble. He made a football move with the ball.

But I guess the refs didn't see it that way.

   408. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:03 PM (#6116725)
Think that was a fumble. He made a football move with the ball.
he started a football move, but he didn't finish it before the ball came out.
   409. nick swisher hygiene Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:05 PM (#6116726)
I'd like to see a rule change where that's a fumble--because I mean intuitively it just IS a fumble, no?
   410. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:07 PM (#6116727)
The pair of reversals were both very close. Both were similar in that they were more "reversal than not", but not so obviously enough to overcome the call on the field. The overturn in Philly's favor was the bigger break in the end.
   411. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:10 PM (#6116728)
I'd like to see a rule change where that's a fumble--because I mean intuitively it just IS a fumble, no?

if that play happens in an end-zone, is it a TD?
   412. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:11 PM (#6116729)
The opposition is getting wise to the Eagles quick snaps after a borderline catch.
   413. nick swisher hygiene Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:12 PM (#6116730)
411--Well, that would depend on the NFL's fumble rules, which I expect are weird and non-intuitive (I'm down to watching maybe three games a year these days)
   414. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:15 PM (#6116731)
411--Well, that would depend on the NFL's fumble rules, which I expect are weird and non-intuitive (I'm down to watching maybe three games a year these days)

there's no fumble in the endzone. it's either a catch, or it's an incomplete pass.

i don't think it would (or should) be a catch (touchdown) in that situation, and so, whether it's intuitive or not, i don't think it should be a catch outside of the endzone.
   415. SoSH U at work Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:16 PM (#6116732)

I'd like to see a rule change where that's a fumble--because I mean intuitively it just IS a fumble, no?


Yes. Under any non-pro football definition. He caught the ball clearly and then it was knocked out of his hand. But, even if the rules governing catches have improved in recent years since the Dez Bryant debacle, the NFL's definition of a catch is still not what anyone over the age of five understands is a catch.

if that play happens in an end-zone, is it a TD?


Should it be? Yes. Would it be? I don't think so.

   416. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:16 PM (#6116733)
The opposition is getting wise to the Eagles quick snaps after a borderline catch.
the referees had to literally blow a play dead and delay the game for two minutes, before the chiefs could get their challenge out at the last possible second before the eagles snapped the ball.

and then their challenge was overruled anyway. classic andy reid game management there.
   417. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:21 PM (#6116734)
That last play by Philly reminds me I didn't understand at all their last play of the first half before the FG. What was that?
   418. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:23 PM (#6116735)
Agree with SoSH here. That's what any 5-year old would intuitively understand is a catch. The NFL has very particular, unintuitive rules which they think they need for some reason, which was never 100% clear to me.
   419. Hombre Brotani Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:29 PM (#6116736)
Did I just see a commercial asking people to tell the White House they don't want Social Security cut?

Sigh.
   420. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:30 PM (#6116737)
Yes. Under any non-pro football definition. He caught the ball clearly and then it was knocked out of his hand. But, even if the rules governing catches have improved in recent years since the Dez Bryant debacle, the NFL's definition of a catch is still not what anyone over the age of five understands is a catch.

this play is the exact reason why the NFL's rules are what they are.

the fact that this wasn't a catch is a feature, not a bug.
   421. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:30 PM (#6116738)
great idea by sweat there, trying to jump the snap.
   422. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:33 PM (#6116739)
this quick motion #### from KC is absolutely beautiful.
   423. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:34 PM (#6116740)
The play design on that TD
   424. KronicFatigue Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:36 PM (#6116741)
Agree with SoSH here. That's what any 5-year old would intuitively understand is a catch. The NFL has very particular, unintuitive rules which they think they need for some reason, which was never 100% clear to me.


That's a pretty good standard. I used to watch the NFL but for the past 10 years I've really only watched the Superbowl. I have no knowledge of what the rules are at this point. So when I'm watching a play like that, I'm just viewing it from a common sense non-fan type of thing. That was a catch.

The rule book has become a never ending explanation of "well accctually..."
   425. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:37 PM (#6116742)
The play design on that TD
it's basically the same scheme they used on their first TD. motion kelce into a stack, then use the ensuing confusion to create a mismatch/blown assignment.
   426. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:39 PM (#6116744)
Gotta go for it, Sirianni.
   427. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:39 PM (#6116745)
the fact that this wasn't a catch is a feature, not a bug.
Very much disagree with this, but I understand the rules have been this way for a long time now.

At this point the game is close to even on a per-drive basis. Philly has had an extra drive and also gave up the free TD, which is why the score is what it is.
   428. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:39 PM (#6116746)
Like I said.
   429. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:43 PM (#6116747)
Marilyn Chambers had more coverage than Skyy Moore there.
   430. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:43 PM (#6116748)
huge mistake by reid here.

he should be going for 2 to try to get their lead up to 9 points.
   431. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:44 PM (#6116749)
Gotta go for it, Sirianni.
4th and 3 on your 30, down 1, is not a "must go for it" situation.

trust your special teams.

trust your defense.
   432. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:48 PM (#6116750)
Eagles need two scores and a stop. Sauntering like this isn't going to cut it.
   433. Ron J Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:48 PM (#6116751)
A terrible punt makes the decision look really bad, but ... I think you had to kick.
   434. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:49 PM (#6116752)
Eagles need two scores and a stop. Sauntering like this isn't going to cut it.

an 8 point lead is only 1 score.
   435. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:51 PM (#6116753)
jesus christ; that's an ironhead heyward sneak right there.
   436. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:51 PM (#6116754)
Well, that made up for the sauntering.

Good game.
   437. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:52 PM (#6116755)
#######.
####### goddamn.


this is one hell of a game.
   438. Ron J Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:53 PM (#6116756)
And I think those TD plays are a coverage read situation. Pretty sure Kelce get the ball if he's 1v1. I think the Chiefs like any 1v1 coverage.
   439. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:56 PM (#6116757)
Very much disagree with this, but I understand the rules have been this way for a long time now.
and for good reason.

plays like that would have an outsized impact on the outcome of games if they were ruled the way this hypothetical "5 year old" thinks it should be. we've been through this. it's not good for anyone. it turns games and seasons and careers on flukes and technicalities that players don't have any actual control over.
   440. SoSH U at work Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:59 PM (#6116758)
plays like that would have an outsized impact on the outcome of games if they were ruled the way this hypothetical "5 year old" thinks it should be. we've been through this. it's not good for anyone. it turns games and seasons and careers on flukes and technicalities that players don't have any actual control over.


You can agree with the way the current rule is written without the inanity.

I think.
   441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:01 PM (#6116759)
? It's a "technicality" either way. Pretty easy to argue the only reason that was not a TD for Kansas City was due to a technicality. In fact, that's exactly what I would say.
   442. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:07 PM (#6116760)
that's a bullshit penalty.
   443. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:08 PM (#6116761)
I told my ex last night that the worst thing that could happen was Philly losing the game on a late penalty.
   444. Hombre Brotani Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:08 PM (#6116762)
That penalty is an oof. And also, eh.
   445. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:09 PM (#6116763)
I told my ex last night that the worst thing that could happen was Philly losing the game on a late penalty.
this game is going to end marriages.
   446. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:09 PM (#6116764)
Thank you for the anticlimactic ending, refs.

Did Bud Selig script this one?
   447. SoSH U at work Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:10 PM (#6116765)
Now that's the kind of brutal technicality that turns games.
   448. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:10 PM (#6116766)
That was also a techincality. NFL does not seem to mind those much, so it hardly seems to be an ethos.
   449. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:10 PM (#6116767)
I think I'd punch a TD in and let the Eagles try to score in 40 seconds. Don't want to miss a FG.
   450. nick swisher hygiene Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:12 PM (#6116768)
There are simply too many things that are plausible penalties.
If we are practical and understand selective enforcement of the rules, I'm ...surprised they called that one.
   451. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:13 PM (#6116769)
And the crowd goes... meh.
   452. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:16 PM (#6116770)
That was a really stupid ending to a very good game. Few outside of KC are going to be too happy about it.
   453. SoSH U at work Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:16 PM (#6116771)
Great Super Bowl. Awful ending. Defensive holding calls are consistently the most frustrating play in the sport.
   454. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:17 PM (#6116772)
yeah, the game ended on a bullshit penalty, but the eagles defense and special teams didn't play well enough to deserve the win. KC got a big play from each of those units, the eagles didn't, and that was the difference.

   455. Ron J Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:19 PM (#6116773)
I hate the ethos that says, let them play. It leads to the situation in the old NHL playoffs where players fouled constantly. There's a famous Hockey News cover with a cartoon of Brad Marsh (a prime offender) holding a smoking pistol with a body at his feet. The caption is a ref saying something like, "Do that again and I'm going to have to call you."

Players adjust to the "real" rules and it makes for a terrible game. The NHL had to instruct the officials to call playoff games like regular season games (well more or less)
   456. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:21 PM (#6116774)
That was defensive holding, but I would vastly prefer that it simply be a 5-year penalty. Offenses are good enough that they don't need the auto first down.
   457. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:22 PM (#6116775)
5 years seems a bit excessive :)
   458. Mike A Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:28 PM (#6116776)
If we are practical and understand selective enforcement of the rules, I'm ...surprised they called that one.
For sure. I do football photography, and yeah, there is holding on every play. If the refs called everything by the book, games would be insufferable. So they fortunately tend to only call the bad/blatant ones.

That one...was pretty ticky-tack IMO.
   459. Nasty Nate Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:29 PM (#6116777)
I think I'd punch a TD in and let the Eagles try to score in 40 seconds. Don't want to miss a FG.
I thought the same thing. Hurts' eventual Hail Mary attempt maybe somewhat validates our thinking.
   460. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:41 PM (#6116780)
For me the big story of this game was that the Chiefs o-line played their best game of the year. The defensive hold that existed only in the official's vivid imagination at the end was an embarrassment, but almost certainly didn't change the outcome. The Eagles have little to complain about--they lost because their celebrated d-line was stymied most of the night, and because their quarterback (who otherwise played a tremendous game) just flat-out dropped the ball to gift the Chiefs a touchdown. Bless his heart, he had to be the sickest man in America.

The super bowl being at a neutral site, attended mainly by insiders and the connected, really saps the game's atmosphere, especially compared to the conference championships.


Agree 100%--the highlight of the football year for me has always been Conference Championship weekend. But now the NFL is going to move those to neutral sites as well and ruin everything.

I think I'd punch a TD in and let the Eagles try to score in 40 seconds. Don't want to miss a FG.


Extremely agree. If Mahomes is hurt just send Henne out to run a couple sneaks--if you score, great, if you don't, that's OK too, you end up with a 19 yard field goal instead of 27. We're talking about the difference between maybe a 99.5% win probability and a 99.7%, granted. But still!
   461. Howie Menckel Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:54 PM (#6116782)
The super bowl being at a neutral site,attended mainly by insiders and the connected, really saps the game's atmosphere, especially compared to the conference championships.

if you think it's bad on TV, it's much, much worse in person. have noted this before (a year ago?) but...

I have attended 3 Super Bowls, including the Giants vs undefeated Patriots in Arizona 15 years ago.

whenever the game went to commercials (which was often), the players just stood around with their hands on their hips, noticeably bored. eventually, they'd get into their actual huddles - with even less crowd noise than the relatively little you see during play on the broadcast.

the 4th quarter finally brought a modicum of excitement in the stands, but far below what one would expect, given the scenario.
   462. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:59 PM (#6116784)
For sure. I do football photography, and yeah, there is holding on every play. If the refs called everything by the book, games would be insufferable. So they fortunately tend to only call the bad/blatant ones.


The way the rule is phrased, only the bad/blatant ones ARE holding. You need 5 or 6 precise things to happen in order for something to be holding, and if just one of those is absent, it isn't holding.
   463. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 12, 2023 at 11:35 PM (#6116785)
The defensive hold that existed only in the official's vivid imagination at the end was an embarrassment . . .
Bradberry did grab the receiver twice, and has already admitted his guilt:
”I pulled on his jersey. They called it. I was hoping they would let it ride."
It would likely have been a touchdown without the grab.
   464. Zach Posted: February 12, 2023 at 11:40 PM (#6116786)
That play was designed to go to Smith-Schuster, who would have been one on one with leverage and a step or two on the defender without the holding.

It was a good call by Bradberry to try and get away with a hold. But it was a hold.
   465. Zach Posted: February 13, 2023 at 12:59 AM (#6116794)
One of the things Mahomes actually does do to work the refs is that easy rainbow pass to where his receiver would have been if he wasn't held. Just announcing "Yes, I saw the hold, and yes, that's where my pass was going."
   466. Zach Posted: February 13, 2023 at 01:02 AM (#6116795)
It's not a non-catchable ball. It's Mahomes demonstrating to the official that the hold affected the outcome of the play.
   467. Moeball Posted: February 13, 2023 at 02:43 AM (#6116797)
I guess Mahomes was named the MVP but I have to say I was pretty impressed by Hurts. For better and worse, I think he was the most impactful player in the game.

BTW, according to Caesar's Palace, I believe the payoff on Hurts getting 3 TDs was +2800!
   468. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 13, 2023 at 06:28 AM (#6116799)
2 thoughts:

-- the eagles' biggest advantage over, well, everyone, is the dominance of their offensive and defensive lines. i think both of those strengths were severely neutralized by the condition of that ####### field last night.

-- the ref threw the flag for defensive holding because he assumed the route was a crosser. he saw the change in direction, and he saw a "grab", and he threw the flag without processing that the change in direction was the route itself, rather than any meaningful obstruction from the defender.
   469. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 08:33 AM (#6116812)
When the defender tells you he committed a penalty . . .
   470. Tony S Posted: February 13, 2023 at 09:32 AM (#6116824)
I don't think anyone is disputing that it was a hold. The questions are (a) was it consistently called all game and (b) was it particularly egregious to merit a call if, in fact, it hadn't been called all game.

Speaking as a neutral observer, I just wanted to see KC pound in a TD, and then see if Philly could march down the field and tie it with a minute-plus left and two timeouts. Or have KC settle for the FG and give Philly a chance to win it outright. It would have been a great capper to the game, which had been a classic up to that point, PGA crowd excitement notwithstanding.

Instead, we got KC killing the clock to set up a gimme FG. That was just a wet blanket.
   471. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6116827)
The Chiefs were unstoppable on offense in the second half (of course, including the penalty).

One good way to measure offensive dominance is down set conversion rate, which looks at every time a team took the ball on first down and sees whether it turned that series into a first down or a touchdown. The Chiefs converted 93.8% of their first downs into another first down or a touchdown in the second half, and the only reason they didn't hit 100% is because Jerick McKinnon slid down on the 1-yard line to set up the title-winning field goal. ESPN has data going back through 2000, and no team has ever done that in the second half of a Super Bowl before. Just three teams have done it in the second half of any playoff game.
   472. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 13, 2023 at 10:13 AM (#6116831)
There was a better ending to be had. If Cheffers and his men kept their flags holstered on this play—and no one outside of Kansas City would have batted an eyelash if they had—we would have been treated to the a similarly perfunctory Harrison Butker field goal, but with enough time left on the clock for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to mount one final, dramatic charge. That’s what you and I came here for, and that’s what this game deserved, especially after we had already been treated to tedious, persnickety reversals of DeVonta Smith catching a long bomb and Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton’s second fumble return for a touchdown.

Instead, we got a ####### flag. Do you know how much it will suck to remember that flag anytime I think of this game?
[...]
[I resent] that ending from a sheer entertainment standpoint. Flags are bad television. Especially when they come at the end of a game. Especially when they’re in the grayest of areas. And especially when I was ready for something much more interesting to happen. The Eagles still probably would have lost to the Chiefs had that flag never been thrown, but I’d have preferred to watch THEM lose it in that final minute, rather than have a side adjudicator step in before they had the chance to go OPE SORRY PARTY’S OVER YOU HAVE TO GO TO BED NOW.
before that slow-motion whitewash begins in earnest, I just want it down for the record: that call was horseshit, and it ruined everything. #### the refs, #### Roger Goodell, and #### you if you were down with it.

   473. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 13, 2023 at 10:25 AM (#6116832)
The Chiefs were unstoppable on offense in the second half
you're not wrong. KC played a (nearly) immaculate half of football.
When the defender tells you he committed a penalty . . .
who are you going to believe: a person involved in the incident, or some random ####### on the internet? come on.
   474. KronicFatigue Posted: February 13, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6116833)
I don't think anyone is disputing that it was a hold. The questions are (a) was it consistently called all game and (b) was it particularly egregious to merit a call if, in fact, it hadn't been called all game.


Concur. There's no point in looking at replays of that hold in particular without context. We need to see all the other plays where similar acts were committed but without a call. Maybe they don't exist. We don't really know because the NFL does a terrible job (perhaps intentionally) of showing us the entire action of a play. Maybe this is happening off screen 30 times a game and we don't know because we're left in the dark.

   475. KronicFatigue Posted: February 13, 2023 at 10:43 AM (#6116835)
432. Tony S Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:48 PM (#6116750)
Eagles need two scores and a stop. Sauntering like this isn't going to cut it.


In my opinion, the Eagles lost the game between 9:22 and 5:45 in the 4th quarter. They were down 8 and started at their own 25 with 9:22 left. I'd suggest 8 points is 1.5 scores: you need two good things to happen. Regardless, the best case scenario is that you're tying the game and giving KC the ball back. So, the goal has to be conserving enough time to get the ball back AFTER you give KC the ball.

Instead, they took almost 4 minutes to go from the 25 to the KC 47. 3 minutes and 37 seconds for 29 yards is not going to cut it. They started the drive with 3 runs! They were fortunate to then connect on a 45 yard pass but it was too late. KC got the ball with the perfect amount of time. They didn't have to rush, and if things went south (or very well), they could leisurely eat up clock.

I wouldn't know the numbers, but there's a window of time that's essentially the same for a final drive. KC getting the ball back with say 3 minutes is no different (for them) than 7 or 8. But the odds of getting the ball back change drastically outside that window. Philly needed to move faster, even if they were 100% guaranteed the 8 points to tie.
   476. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 13, 2023 at 10:58 AM (#6116839)
In my opinion, the Eagles lost the game between 9:22 and 5:45 in the 4th quarter. They were down 8 and started at their own 25 with 9:22 left. I'd suggest 8 points is 1.5 scores: you need two good things to happen.

Instead, they took almost 4 minutes to go from the 25 to the KC 47. 3 minutes and 37 seconds for 29 yards is not going to cut it. They started the drive with 3 runs! They were fortunate to then connect on a 45 yard pass but it was too late.
and they got both of those things to happen. that's kind of an important variable that you're glibly waving away, as if it was a predetermined outcome.

the eagles needed their defense to nut up and get a ####### stop. they didn't need to play this 4 dimensional chess bullshit; they just needed to get a ####### stop. that's it.
   477. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:02 AM (#6116840)
You can't control how much time the opposing team is going to take on their drive and leaving them a lot of time gives them more flexibility. Main goal down 8 is score that TD and get the 2 pt conversion. Putting themselves in a 2 minute offense with all that time on the clock puts them at a disadvantage.

As it was their plan worked up until the holding call.
   478. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:11 AM (#6116841)
FWIW, football outsiders has the Eagles' punt on 4th and 3 around their own 30 as a highly negative play call, meaning they should have gone for it. That was before the punt was run almost all the way back. Brian Burke has it squarely in the "go for it" zone as well. For all the times the Eagles went for it correctly on 4th down, they missed a chance here.
   479. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:12 AM (#6116842)
I thought the same thing. I also thought the 3rd and 8 playcall was the wrong call and that it was 4 down territory at that point but I don't know what the stats say on that.
   480. It's Spelled With a CFBF, But Not Where You Think Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:20 AM (#6116846)
It's kind of amusing that NFL media has spent the last two weeks cracking jokes about Arian Foster's (facetious) claim that NFL games are all "scripted," and now the serious argument is that officials should make calls by instantly calculating the levels of narrative drama that would result from each potential decision.
   481. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:25 AM (#6116847)
I don’t watch all that much football anymore but I got kind of swept up in this one. Mahomes is a compelling athlete to watch and my son adopted the Eagles as his team. My biggest impression of the game was that I was shocked by the field condition. Kind of amazing that the NFL, on its signature game, allowed such miserable conditions for the players. The number of slips and slides for these world class athletes was amazing
   482. Howie Menckel Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:26 AM (#6116848)
For all the times the Eagles went for it correctly on 4th down, they missed a chance here.

they also could have gone for a TD just before the end of the first half, and if it failed they would have gotten the same FG they wound up getting anyway.

15 seconds left, and a short gain, and then they run the clock down. struck me as weird. Hurts is excellent at finding a way to toss the ball away when necessary, stopping the clock with enough time left for that FG.

or did I misread that?
   483. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:30 AM (#6116851)
Apparently the turf has been crappy all year.


Hell, it's actually not all that unusual. Soldier Field had horrible turf for decades, back when it was artificial and even for decades when it was sod.
   484. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:35 AM (#6116852)
Yeah I noted that same play to end the first half earlier in the thread. It was a very strange call.
   485. KronicFatigue Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:39 AM (#6116856)
and they got both of those things to happen. that's kind of an important variable that you're glibly waving away, as if it was a predetermined outcome.


I'm trying to do the opposite. I'm suggesting that the Eagles had to act more desperate down 8, because it was highly likely that they'd need that 2nd possession on offense. It was highly likely that Philly would fail to score 8 and/or KC would score. By moving so slowly at first, the Eagles were banking on exactly 1 successful outcome: scoring 8 points and KC running out of time to score again.

2 timeouts + the 2 minute warning is enough time for KC to run their normal-ish offense to get into field goal territory. There was no scenario where KC would be stressed for time. So if time wasn't going to be valuable to KC, it could have only been valuable for Philly. And they wasted it.

   486. Tony S Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:42 AM (#6116857)
It's kind of amusing that NFL media has spent the last two weeks cracking jokes about Arian Foster's (facetious) claim that NFL games are all "scripted," and now the serious argument is that officials should make calls by instantly calculating the levels of narrative drama that would result from each potential decision.


Well, if the refs were letting holding instances go up to that point, and then decided to call that particular one, that's a form of "scripting".


You can't control how much time the opposing team is going to take on their drive and leaving them a lot of time gives them more flexibility.


Sure you can. Just play some defense and get a stop.
   487. KronicFatigue Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6116861)
Sure you can. Just play some defense and get a stop.


And when you get that stop, will you want more time on the clock to march up the field, or less?

When you have the ball you can burn extra time at your will. So it's almost impossible to have "too much" time in late game situations.
   488. Ron J Posted: February 13, 2023 at 11:50 AM (#6116862)
“It was a holding. I tugged his jersey. I was hoping they would let it slide." -- James Bradberry.

Not that this will change anybody's mind.
   489. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 12:00 PM (#6116865)
I'm with KF on this one. Playing under a strategy where you need everything to go exactly right is bad percentages. All other things being equal, the Eagles should have hurried a bit more. The flip side of that though is they don't want to hurry too much such that they significantly reduce their own chance of scoring a TD. There's a trade-off.
   490. DCA Posted: February 13, 2023 at 01:36 PM (#6116896)
Playing under a strategy where you need everything to go exactly right is bad percentages.

When you are behind by 7+ points, it's always bad percentages.

If you can't stop the Chiefs from driving, it's always bad percentages.

I'm with 57i66135 here. After the Chiefs took control of the game, the Eagles needed to a get a stop, or get lucky. The strategy was fine, but they didn't make the plays.
   491. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 02:10 PM (#6116906)
The most important step is the one right in front of you. The Eagles focused on that one. I don't buy that the Eagles could have hurried up and what, scored in 47 seconds?

You're talking about something like a minute getting shaved maybe? At what cost? What happens if by hurrying they settle for a FG?
   492. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 02:13 PM (#6116909)
And really the Eagles played it perfectly if they had gotten the stop. Even if they had missed the 2 pt conversion if they had stopped KC they were perfectly setup for a game winning TD drive or game tying FG.
   493. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: February 13, 2023 at 02:27 PM (#6116917)
I was entertained. In media way too much ######## about a penalty and not enough crushing of NFL for field conditions. That was awful. Stunned nobody got big time hurt in those conditions.
   494. KronicFatigue Posted: February 13, 2023 at 02:33 PM (#6116919)
The Eagles offense had plenty of time on the sidelines to prepare before they got the ball back. With 9:22 remaining in their season they ran the ball twice, once up the middle, and once to the left to gain a total of 9 yards. That cost them 1 minute and 14 seconds. I imagine their win expectancy went down after those two plays, despite both playing being mostly successful based on the expected outcome of the play.

EDIT:

"And really the Eagles played it perfectly if they had gotten the stop."

They got extremely lucky with a blown coverage 45 yard pass. Without that play, it's much more likely that there's only enough time on the clock for one singular possession by the chiefs. In short, they needed to go 2 for 1, like in the NBA

   495. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 13, 2023 at 04:01 PM (#6116944)
I was entertained. In media way too much ######## about a penalty and not enough crushing of NFL for field conditions. That was awful. Stunned nobody got big time hurt in those conditions.
fair, but the game was good enough as it was that most people won't care about what it could have been with a reasonable field.

Jordan Mailata said the field was “terrible.” He was sure to point out it was terrible for both teams, and Eagles/Chiefs players were talking with each other during TV timeouts about how bad it was. He said, “It was like playing on a water park.”

— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) February 13, 2023

“A couple times I had a good pass rush,” Reddick said, “felt like I beat my man, trying to turn the corner and couldn’t turn the corner.” Frank Clark agreed the field was an issue: “The field was kind of terrible.” That was a common word for it.
[...]
“I’m not going to lie: It was the worst field I’ve ever played on,” Reddick said. “It was very disappointing. It’s the NFL. You would think it would be better so we could get some better play, but it is what it is. I don’t know. Maybe the league will look at it and tell Arizona they got to step their stuff up.”

   496. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: February 13, 2023 at 04:07 PM (#6116947)
They got extremely lucky with a blown coverage 45 yard pass. Without that play, it's much more likely that there's only enough time on the clock for one singular possession by the chiefs. In short, they needed to go 2 for 1, like in the NBA

isn't that what should have happened?

if not for the only holding call in the entire ####### game, KC would have been kicking a FG with 1:45 left on the clock. the eagles offense would have gotten the ball back, with more than enough time to drive down the field.
   497. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 04:08 PM (#6116948)
Unless you expected 68 yard completion instead of a run passing and running would take the same amount of time off the clock. Though if it's 2 incomplete passes they're looking at 3 and 10 and probably punting with 8:30 left on the clock
   498. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 13, 2023 at 04:09 PM (#6116949)
In short, they needed to go 2 for 1, like in the NBA


Anecdotally, it seems that most 2 for 1 attempts in the NBA result in a rushed first shot that misses, followed by a rushed second shot that misses.
   499. KronicFatigue Posted: February 13, 2023 at 04:12 PM (#6116950)
if not for the only holding call in the entire ####### game, KC would have been kicking a FG with 1:45 left on the clock. the eagles offense would have gotten the ball back, with more than enough time to drive down the field.


Okay, but after the holding call, KC was able to run down the clock to almost zero and then kick the FG. If there's an extra minute on the clock, KC can't do that. They have to continue to play the game, knowing Philly is going to get the ball back with enough time to drive. And, with that much time left, maybe they can't just rely on the FG, b/c a TD could beat them.

Philly got the ball back with 6 or 8 seconds left. Wouldn't 1 minute and 8 seconds be infinitely better?
   500. McCoy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 04:15 PM (#6116952)
How many plays would the Eagles have needed of they threw more and didn't get "lucky" with a 45 yard completion?


How much time is that versus actual time used?
Page 5 of 6 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BarrysLazyBoy
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Newsblog8 big All-Star voting storylines to follow
(26 - 11:54pm, Jun 02)
Last: bjhanke

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - The Run In
(417 - 11:53pm, Jun 02)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for June 2023
(78 - 11:50pm, Jun 02)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogFormer Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey weighs U.S. Senate bid
(20 - 11:15pm, Jun 02)
Last: baxter

NewsblogMLB managers should be challenging a lot more in 2023
(4 - 10:22pm, Jun 02)
Last: The Duke

NewsblogAaron Boone’s Rate of Ejections Is Embarrassing ... And Historically Significant
(2 - 10:18pm, Jun 02)
Last: The Duke

NewsblogJays pitcher Anthony Bass sorry for posting video endorsing anti-LGBTQ boycotts
(97 - 10:02pm, Jun 02)
Last: baxter

NewsblogThe Athletic: After 50 years, is this the San Diego Chicken’s last stand? [$]
(14 - 8:23pm, Jun 02)
Last: Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath

Newsblog2023 NBA Playoffs Thread
(2539 - 7:27pm, Jun 02)
Last: Tom Cervo, backup catcher

NewsblogEconomic boost or big business hand-out? Nevada lawmakers consider A’s stadium financing
(10 - 6:14pm, Jun 02)
Last: McCoy

Hall of MeritReranking First Basemen: Discussion Thread
(35 - 4:10pm, Jun 02)
Last: bjhanke

Sox TherapyLining Up The Minors
(30 - 3:43pm, Jun 02)
Last: Darren

Sox TherapyThe First Third
(23 - 2:58pm, Jun 02)
Last: pikepredator

NewsblogDiamond Sports Group fails to pay Padres, loses broadcast rights
(23 - 2:21pm, Jun 02)
Last: Karl from NY

NewsblogESPN the Magazine: Bat and Ball Games you've never heard of
(31 - 1:05pm, Jun 02)
Last: gehrig97

Page rendered in 0.8179 seconds
48 querie(s) executed