Flip

Okay, but after the holding call, KC was able to run down the clock to almost zero and then kick the FG. If there's an extra minute on the clock, KC can't do that. They have to continue to play the game, knowing Philly is going to get the ball back with enough time to drive. And, with that much time left, maybe they can't just rely on the FG, b/c a TD could beat them.

Philly got the ball back with 6 or 8 seconds left. Wouldn't 1 minute and 8 seconds be infinitely better?

i understand where you're coming from; i just don't think it's a reasonable criticism.

they got the TD
they got the 2pt conversion
they gave KC the ball with ~5 minutes left.
the defense got their stop in the redzone, with 1:45 left on the clock....and then the refs ended the game.


glass half full:
the eagles threaded the exact keyhole scenario that should have given them a reasonable chance to win the game.

glass half empty:
maybe they could have gone a little bit faster.


personally, i think the good in the scenario, by far, outweighs the bad. they did what they needed to do. it wasn't enough. KC is also a really ####### good team. it happens.

As for the Eagles defense, they did not have a good night. Jonathan Gannon built up a lot of goodwill with the way his unit played in the first two playoff games. That went out the window when they failed to make plays in the Super Bowl. No sacks. No takeaways. And some brutally easy TDs in the second half. Patrick Mahomes only had one incompletion.

Ugh.

Give Andy Reid a lot of credit. The winningest and stubbornest coach in Eagles history beat his old team by running the ball. That’s the cruelest of ironies. The Chiefs ran for 158 yards and averaged 6.1 yards per carry.

Ugh.
[...]
The difference in the game was the fumble return and a 65-yard punt return by Kadarius Toney. The Chiefs were basically gifted 14 points because of those two plays. The PR didn’t go all the way, but put the ball inside the 10. The defense couldn’t get a stop.

ugh.

Looked at the game log. Let's say the Eagles save a full minute. Chiefs get the ball with 6:15 on the clock. Their second play was a 10 yard pass with the receiver going out of bounds and stopping the clock because they were within 5 minutes. That doesn't happen if they start at the 6:15 point. So remove 35 seconds or so of that minute saved. Then you had Pacheco up the middle with 2:07 left to get them to the 2 minute warning. Add 25 seconds to the clock because the Eagles have still saved 25 seconds and it happens at 2:32 which means they still get to the 2 minute warning in the exact same spot as they did.

Meaning?

The Eagles needed a defensive stop they never got. A regular scoring drive by the Chiefs was going to severely hurt and they kind of got lucky with Pacheco getting injured anyway.

Basically the Eagles needed to score in like a minute in order to guarantee a minute or more on the clock. That's a tall order when you're on your own 25 and you aren't going to uae timeouts

The difference in the game was the fumble return and a 65-yard punt return by Kadarius Toney. The Chiefs were basically gifted 14 points because of those two plays. The PR didn’t go all the way, but put the ball inside the 10. The defense couldn’t get a stop.

I know people aren't being literal when they say stuff like this, but the fumble came on a 3rd and 5 on a play where (IIRC) it didn't look like Jalen Hurts was going anywhere good anyway, though maybe Philadelphia would have gone for it on 4th down near midfied. The punt already gave the ball back to the Chiefs offense. Those two plays combined were killers for the Eagles, but were worth far less than 14 points. Not much more than half that realistically.

And the eagles marched down and scored a TD after the fumble

Their second play was a 10 yard pass with the receiver going out of bounds and stopping the clock because they were within 5 minutes. That doesn't happen if they start at the 6:15 point.

Damn, never considered that. That does in fact destroy my argument. The rules change based on time left. Thanks!

Nothing wrong with tying up the game with ~5 minutes left. The key to getting the ball back with enough time to score after that? Don’t let the other team just march down the field at will.

I know people aren't being literal when they say stuff like this, but the fumble came on a 3rd and 5 on a play where (IIRC) it didn't look like Jalen Hurts was going anywhere good anyway, though maybe Philadelphia would have gone for it on 4th down near midfied. The punt already gave the ball back to the Chiefs offense. Those two plays combined were killers for the Eagles, but were worth far less than 14 points. Not much more than half that realistically.

according fb-ref, the fumble return added ~5 points for the chiefs, if you assume the eagles would have punted without a fumble. the punt return added ~4.8 points. you can take ~.6 points off each of those figures, to adjust for the eagles getting the ball back immediately.

basically, those two plays combined for around +9 expected points for the chiefs. in a game that was decided by a fieldgoal.

The 2023 Eagles will be interesting. They might have a new offensive and defensive coordinator. Jonathan Gannon is talking to the Cardinals. Shane Steichen is expected to be named coach of the Colts. We’ll find out about those moves in the next day or two.

the circle of life begins anew:

2018: colts hire eagles' OC frank reich as head coach
2021: eagles hire colts' OC nick sirianni as head coach
2023: colts hire eagles' OC shane steichen as head coach (allegedly)

At some point in the last fifteen years, I've gone from draft-scouting almost entirely by the statline to "Will Levis is the guy whose ball looks like an NFL quarterback; I'd take him first."

At some point in the last fifteen years, I've gone from draft-scouting almost entirely by the statline to "Will Levis is the guy whose ball looks like an NFL quarterback; I'd take him first."

that's not a bad thing*. in my own personal experience, i've found that the more i use statistics, the better i am at understanding their limitations.


*except in this specific case. levis is pretty clearly the 4th best QB prospect in this draft.

Since the end of Colorado's 1-11 season in 2022-2023, 46 scholarship players have left the program, with 41 leaving since Sanders announced he would take the job in December. Of the 83 scholarship players that were on the roster at the beginning of last season, just 20 remain.