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Sunday, September 17, 2023
OT - 2023 NFL thread
The NFL rulebook states: “If a ball is fumbled in the field of play, and goes forward into the opponent’s end zone and over the end line or sideline, a touchback is awarded to the defensive team.”
...
At the heart of the issue, a source said, is that no one has been able to crystalize what an alternative would be. And if no one cares enough to offer an alternative to the rule, then there won’t be any change to the rule.
...
Many alternatives proposed anecdotally have centered on the offense retaining possession of the ball, losing a down and setting the football at some arbitrary yard line. Should the ball be at the 1 or at the 20? Treat it like intentional grounding and go back 15 yards from the previous spot? The competition committee discussed that in 2018 and considered, among many options, the original spot of the fumble or the opposing team’s 15-yard line.
I find it bizarre that VincentVegaLooksAroundConfused.gif is somehow the prevailing sentiment here, when the extraordinarily obvious answer—that the rule governing every other fumble that goes forward and out of bounds should apply—stares the world in the face.
Lance Reddick! Lance him!
Posted: September 17, 2023 at 12:22 PM | 82 comment(s)
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1. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: September 17, 2023 at 12:22 PM (#6141597)firstly: no.
secondly, if you want an NFL thread to stick (it won't), you need to make sure the commenting period is indefinite.
You seemingly have no clue what the rules regarding fumbles are and are wrong in every particular as a result.
Fumbles backwards out of bounds go to the offense at the point the ball went out of bounds. Plays ending in the offense's end zone result in safeties. Thus it makes sense that a fumble out of bounds in the offense's end zone -- ending the play there -- results in a safety.
Fumbles forward out of bounds are returned to the offense at the point of the fumble. Everywhere on the field, with one exception, where it magically becomes a turnover for no discernible reason. There is neither symmetry nor consistency of logic to this rule. It is a pure case of "for reasons."
Turns out week 1 also had a scorigami: 25-9. I think Baltimore might have gone for 2 when there was an offside on the extra point?
(Sort of kidding, I realize that isn't a random sample of NFL offenses.)
they kicked a FG and not surprisingly lost, 23-18.
Buck Showalter keeping Zack Britton in the bullpen in extra innings in an elimination postseason game still is remembered years later because it stood out in its utter stupidity.
NFL head coaches do stuff like that on a weekly basis, so it almost gets overlooked.
but that was his drive.
Another one tonight - Eagles 25, Bucs 11
haha go #### yourself, tampa.
if you watch this breakdown from brian baldinger, you can kind of see how the eagles are doing it.
the key to the play isn't kelce. and it's not even hurts, i don't think.
the key is the eagles' left guard, landon dickerson. i think he's listed around 6'6", 340. he's a big ####### man, and if you watch enough of these shoves, you'll notice that hurts always runs behind him.
so, what dickerson does on these plays is this: he shoves his head into the DT, and then he lifts that guy up, raising their center of gravity, so that the push can move forward.
now the 2nd key is the eagles' LT jordan mailata. now this ####### guy is listed at 6'8", 360 lbs. he's ass big ############.
if you watch mailata, he hooks onto dickerson and adds even more upward pressure to the defensive line. standing them up, so they have no leverage to stop the push that's coming. and once they have the defense flat footed, they're the first line of the shove.
if you watch the play that i linked, what you'll notice is that the rams aren't fighting the eagles on that plane. they are lined up over kelce, and so when dickerson and mailata get in there, that rams line is dead on arrival. they're getting ####### torpedoed from the side by 700 ####### pounds of grade A ####### man meat.
you have to leave kelce un guarded. he's not key to the play.
you need 2 DTs lined up over dickerson at LG, and 2 DTs lined up over whoever the eagles have at RG. you need to beat those two guys at the point of attack, and then collapse down the line to clamp down on kelce.
if you can do that, the next point of emphasis is to take out mailata's legs. get a linebacker grabbing onto his outside thigh, and take away his leverage so he can't just push forward.
assuming you can execute on those 3 fronts, now all you have to do is stop hurts (with his 650 lb deadlifts) and goedert (one of the stronger TEs in the league), and AJ brown (the strongest WR in the league), and kenny gainwell (who might still be a threat to actually run the ball).
good ####### luck.
Personally I find the shove to be a boring play, and wouldn't mind if it were outlawed again on those grounds alone. But if I were still a football fan I would ####### want my team to be the best at it.
At worst (barring penalty), they would have gotten the ball back with a little less than a minute left and no timeouts.
Maybe they made the right call, but it's hardly the obvious decision. Anyway, the real problem was going -4 on turnovers. It's basically impossible to win in the NFL with a turnover margin that low.
Jets INT guy should have taken a knee
Eagles tackler should have let him score since he didn't go down on his own (though this is easily the most understandable error - it's not something offensive players would be expected to grasp in the heat of the moment)
Jets should not have elected to score on the first play, and Eagles were smart to let him score
meanwhile, the NFL has to learn from the botched ending of the BUF-NYG SNF game (spoiler alert: they won't).
PI or no PI always was unreviewable. that proved to be a disaster a few years ago (MIN v NOS).
so they overreacted, and the following season allowed way too many reviews.
sensible businesses look at what worked and what didn't, and make sensible adjustments. not how the NFL rolls.
so they got rid of all PI reviews - rather than a sane middle ground, such as reviews only of (rare) calls of more than 30 yards, and obviously final plays of close games like tonight.
60-second maximum, and the default mode is the call on the field.
good post-game discussion on NBC tonight w Collinsworth and their rules official. while both ultimately agreed it was PI so another play should occur, the expert was not as locked in on that.
fine. play goes to the booth, and maybe they don't overturn. so be it. but once the play was somewhat "busted" re the BUF D, it was a no-brainer to tug on the jersey for dear life. probably it gets noticed, so NY gains about 3 inches and everybody regroups for another final play.
and if it doesn't - great! no review allowed. ballgame over.
at least NYG fans will feel better at season's end, when their top 10 pick lands them a - for the moment - better-projected player than would have been the case with the W tonight.
I don't think there's anything sensible when sports decide that a particular type of call is the only reviewable at a given time. It also won't last, as the moment there's an egregious 29-yard call with 3 minutes left in the contest will usher back in those calls for expansion.
i agree with you about the eagles side of this, but i think it was reasonable for the jets to score at any cost. they were losing at the time, which means they were a missed field goal away from losing the game outright. it's better for them to take the easy points and win the game on defense. i think.
main point being that the Eagles had 2 timeouts whereas he would have gone "my way" if they only had one left.
In a quick reaction, I also didn't take into account that the Jets QB is not exactly a Gibraltar of wise decision-making. add in that the Jets' defense - while underachieving overall so far - is very talented, and I think he has won me over.
also agree that with the Eagles having an excellent QB who has no doubt managed some game-winning drives, the Eagles, too, had good reason to want the Jets to score.
also, that's the second time in the last two games that eagles' left guard landon dickerson (who, as i said, is the key to the "brotherly shove") was incorrectly flagged for being offsides, on a play where an opposing defensive tackle was actually offsides.
- the NFL still calls "forward progress" on every play except some Shoves (the one that just happened not at all being an offending example of that), which is weird. only on this play can you get stacked up and stalled, but there's no whistle. bonus points for how they only allow you to go forward (eventually). the moment you go backward, they spot the ball at the most positive yard line.
- the NFL has made all sorts of adjustments to claim that they are making the game safer, yet for example I think 2 Giants OL have missed several weeks after being injured on that very play.
- I can't speak to tonight's examples, but I have seen several where Kelce is offsides, but they never call him for it.
fair or not, I doubt it will survive this offseason - at least, not without some adjustments.
all that said, as long as it's legal, the Eagles absolutely should exploit the hell out of it.
this ain't beanbag, as they used to say (no idea what that means, but they used to say it.).
tanking doesn't count.
as long as the pile is still moving forward, the play is not stalled.imagine a world where defenders could just stack a running back up and then push him all the way back to his own endzone. that would obviously not work.
but i do agree with you that forward progress is just a little too generous to the offense.
the question is, how do they actually write the rule that gets rid of it. because if they do it wrong, there will be collateral damage, and i think that technicality is why the play was even able to survive this offseason.
that's fine.
but on some - not nearly all - of the Shoves, the pile does indeed stall, but the play continues. I can never recall seeing that happen in any other situations.
Myles Garrett blocked a FG today. how? he overcame the rule against a defender leaping up onto a teammate to try for a block. instead, he just jumped over the whole damn pile !
I don't think that forbidding OLs to push their QB forward would cause any collateral damage at all.
it's very obvious when it does and doesn't happen. you block for your guy and try to push back the DLs, and hope he can then push past the yard line on his own.
or am I misreading the situation? haven't given it a ton of thought, tbh.
linemen wind up pushing ball carriers a handful of times every game. it just usually happens more as an improvised type of thing, rather than a purposeful design feature.
and even if the NFL does make that particular change, i don't think it kills the play.
I agree, generally.
but in the case of this particular play, it's not like the others, where for example a player makes a catch and then the ball pops free. they now hesitate to blow the whistle, and rightly so, because if the mistake is that the pass was incomplete, then they review that, no impact. but if they blew it dead and it should have been a TD - oh, crap.
I don't really see a comparison of that to a play where a 4th-and-1 QB tries to gain a first down but struggles. to me, that play is over (and as you have noticed, I differentiate between these actual plays. sometimes the runner basically never loses forward progress, and sometimes, imo, he does but for some reason they only make an exception for that play).
and I would agree that Hurts presumably would be more equipped to succeed on that play under his own power than any other QB. so the Eagles retain an advantage - he put in the work, so he deserves it - AND you minimize injuries (booth mentioned tonight that a Raiders DL was injured on a similar play today. reducing the sheer pounds-per-square-inch of impact seems like a wise idea).
-- lane johnson, with a giant wad of dip pushing out his lip.
As long as the ball-carrier is still moving forward. That's a reason why the play works so well for the Eagles - when the first trio of guys gets stopped Hurts slips over/past one of them to get that extra yard, he's not just staying completely behind Kelce or a tackle.
20.5 combined points in the last 6 minutes of this game.
I mean, they sort of played like ####. Their offense was not running the ball like they were in the first half of the season, Hurts was sacked 5 times in the 1st half, plus another turn over. And their D sucked in the 1st half. 2nd half was a very good showing for the D, although they tried to lose it AGAIN. The roughing the passer + MVS running almost unchecked for the TD that he dropped was straight up bad play. And the offense did barely enough to win in the 2nd half, complete with the completely forseeable, very little time coming off the clock possession starting at 5:30 or so. The Eagles *should* be able to just run the ball down their throats at that point and go with a game sealing TD, none of this wait 'til that last minute crap.
People (not you specifically) seem to stubbornly want the elite teams to usually win 38-13 (or whatever) and "look good" doing it, as if it was college football I guess. But that's not how the NFL works.
The 2022 Vikings were the luckiest team in NFL history, and they not surprisingly lost in the first round at home to a mediocre/lucky Giants team that not surprisingly then got smoked by the Eagles.
Obviously the 2023 Eagles are better than the 2022 Vikings, but we're not rating the Eagles' chances of winning a playoff game, but of winning a Super Bowl. And I'm just struggling to see it.
But I can be talked out of this, I think. and fwiw, I'm not gaga over the Chiefs, either.
By betting odds, there's nothing to choose from among these teams. Big dropoff to the next group of teams, starting with Baltimore, then Miami and Dallas. Those 6 teams together are being given close to 90% to win the superbowl.
edit: those are 6 of the 7 teams with the best season point differentials. The other is Buffalo.
the eagles haven't lost any blowouts, they've now beaten 3 of the 8 other teams that have a .700+ winning percentage, and their point differential is +60. the circumstances, for now, are completely different.the eagles have a 92+% conversion rate in short yardage situations, and they aren't likely to lose games because of their kicker.
that's not sexy, but it can do a lot of heavy lifting when the games tighten up.
WTF is up with that? I seriously thought we were past this stuff even in the NFL at this point.
Washington has run almost twice as many plays as Dallas, for the same number of yards. Not a very efficient offense today.
Missed it here and now the game is effectively over now. Missing it on the 43 in the first quarter and maybe they would still be in the game.
the eagles' 350 lb DT (jordan davis) chased josh allen to the sideline, bellyflopping at allen's ankles to try to stop him from getting a first down in OT.
#23 on the bills just ole'd jalen hurts at the 5 yard line on that game winning TD run.
"for who? for what?"
if i was josh mcdermott, i would show those two plays in every team meeting, over and over, 100+ times per week, until the end of the year.
How do you get 25 points? Today they did it in funky-ass ways. 6 FGs for one team, safety and missed xP (not while going for 2) for the other.
not that it mattered. they got it on the next shove.
i don't think greenlaw should have been ejected there.
1st & 10 at CLE 25 (1:56 - 4th) -- (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete short left [A.Donald]. PENALTY on CLV-J.Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at CLV 25.
2nd & 21 at CLE 14 (1:33 - 4th) -- (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to E.Moore.
3rd & 21 at CLE 14 (1:28 - 4th) -- (Shotgun) J.Flacco sacked at CLV 1 for -13 yards (K.Turner).
4th & 34 at CLE 1 (0:36 - 4th) -- (Shotgun) J.Flacco sacked in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (sack split by K.Turner and A.Donald).
edit: and the last sack was at the very back of the endzone, so in some metaphysical sense the possession lost 34.9 yards.
that said, if the Eagles win the Super Bowl - and they might - this may well be seen as the catalyst.
great QB and great coach (and yes, a great kicker) get humbled in a big spot. no more whistling in the graveyard (on here or there), ignoring the self-inflicted wounds that made opponents deserve to lose those games almost as much as what the Eagles did themselves, in some cases.
it's not that the Eagles aren't really good - it's just that the fever had to break at some point, and their level of play frankly hasn't been good enough imo.
I definitely see them as more likely to win the Super Bowl now than I did 24 hours ago* - assumes Hurts is healthy.
sometimes a metaphorical slap in the face does the body good.
:)
not sure what to make of this, maybe nothing
Darren Rovell
@darrenrovell
·
5m
The most bet underdog to win outright today was the Eagles.
With today’s loss, the Eagles are 5-16 outright as an underdog since 2020. Only the Chargers and the Patriots have a worse winning percentage as an underdog over the last 4 seasons.
jalen hurts isn't the only person who suffered brain damage today.
The Eagles are at the moment 3rd most likely to win the super bowl by betting odds, after the 49ers and KC. Both of those teams are less likely to get the #1 seed than Philly, so there is even more of a gap in expectation in terms of quality. Eagles currently probably considered 4th best at the moment, after those other two plus Baltimore.
I do think that the Eagle defense isn't particularly good this year though.
"okay, not being able to review that disastrous MIN-NOS pass interference issue a few years ago in the key moment of a postseason game means we'll allow all sorts of reviews the following season."
"okay, that didn't work out."
"okay, then we'll eliminate such reviews entirely."
and here we are.
this is a business worth north of $10B. and yet there employ no one - or listen to no one - who says, "um, just spitballing here. but what if.... we only allowed review of PI/no PI in the last two minutes of one-score games. 30-second maximum review, and if it's not clear at that point, then we move on."
but hey, good for the Packers, I suppose.
(and personally I don't care about what mayhem goes on w a Hail Mary like that. offense, be better.)
Because then there will be a no-doubt pass interference with 2:10 left on the clock, and people will ##### about that.
I hate all of these auto review this in the last two minute rules. Well, I hate all replay, but I hate the ones that highlight specific circumstances worst of all. For example, auto-reviewing all touchdowns, but not possible touchdowns that were not called TDs on the field, is just idiocy.
such an argument could be used against absolutely every single rule that is ever imposed in life, it seems to me. so for that reason - no rules at all? that's a curious stance.
also, I can't recall the last time that "possible touchdowns that were not called TDs on the field" were not either reviewed by the league office immediately, or subject to a challenge.
meanwhile, am mildly surprised to read that the slob security who elected himself "the 54th Eagle" in that skirmish last night may have the book thrown at him by the NFL.
same guy hooked up the TV broadcast crew with a dinner recommendation the night before, so they praised him pre-game and seemed awful tepid in their analysis in-game. dudes, there's more than one good Italian restaurant in Philly - you don't have to kiss that clown's ring.
No one wants the endless delays that go along with a million of them. But one wants a game swung by some "obviously" wrong call. What people really want is the opportunity to say "Fix this call, right here" on certain big plays, to get them "right". Like, the Saints/Rams interference call. Which leads to calls for replay. But then the league needs to come up with actual guidelines and inevitably, a bunch of people aren't happy with whatever lines get drawn for what/when things can be reviewed.
It's kind of like the Hall of Fame. Someone's gotta be barely on both sides of the in/out line. And it's not going to make a lot of sense why one guy is in when the other isn't
I assumed there were still rules on the books against it, but evidently not.
That's a much more curious conclusion.
If you're going to set an arbitrary circumstances where the rules apply, you ought to be able to make a case for it. Knock yourself out.
That they're subject to a challenge is not the point. It's again the arbitrariness of it. All touchdowns are automatically reviewed, but all potential touchdowns are not (and may cost a team a valuable challenge it it undertakes that process, even if successful if they previously blew one). Likewise, all turnovers are reviewed, but not all possible turnovers where the ref determined there was no fumble. Why one and not the other? Why is the last two minutes of a game sacrosanct? And I can assure you, if the league were to adopt your cockamamie exception to the PI rule, a call just like the one I described will happen and the kvetching will resume.
honestly, it would be helpful if you would elaborate on this point.
are you an absolutist - no replay review, ever? I mean, I guess that's consistent.
but what about strike zones? speed limits? isn't "arbitrary" baked into our existences?
That would be my preference, but I realize that's not going to happen.
But saying that it's absolutely urgent that we get a type of call correctly* but only during this specific stretch of time is an arbitrary distinction that makes no sense. There's nothing sacrosanct about the final two minutes that makes a bad call less palatable or more consequential.
If strike zones were suddenly larger on alternate Tuesdays I would object just as strenuously as I do to this silly last two minutes exemption.
* Not that replay accomplishes this, of course.
I'm all for automated calls that don't slow the game down, like (in a perfect world) an automated strike zone that was no slower than the on-field umps currently are.
OK, I am (kind of) joking, but would it really do any worse than the refs and replay officials do now? I have my doubts.
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