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Monday, December 23, 2019

OT - NBA Thread 2020

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully none of the other ones posted a duplicate thread to this.

Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 23, 2019 at 04:40 PM | 2024 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off-topic

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   1. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 23, 2019 at 07:59 PM (#5910746)
Trade!
Jordan Clarkson to UTA for Dante Exum and 2 2nd round picks (to CLE)

First NBA trade in over 5 months.
   2. Booey Posted: December 23, 2019 at 09:33 PM (#5910756)
Me likey
   3. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: December 23, 2019 at 09:36 PM (#5910757)
That feels like something for nothing, for the Jazzes.
   4. tshipman Posted: December 23, 2019 at 09:37 PM (#5910758)
Trust me, you will soon not like Jordan Clarkson.

One of the most infuriating players I've ever watched. The bright side is that he will absolutely hate Utah. One of the premier #####-chasers of the NBA.
   5. Booey Posted: December 23, 2019 at 09:49 PM (#5910760)
#4 - You think Exum is better?

And if the word the nanny censored is what I think it is, Clarkson will have no trouble finding that here.
   6. tshipman Posted: December 23, 2019 at 09:53 PM (#5910762)
#4 - You think Exum is better?


It's not that Exum is better. It's that Clarkson is almost guaranteed to do something mind-boggling stupid in a playoff game.

How many Instagram "influencers" are there in SLC?
   7. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 23, 2019 at 10:02 PM (#5910764)
I’m curious how Clarkson will defend in SLC. I know his DRPM is fine this year but it’s normally awful and watching him I could see why.
(Separately, Clarkson is one of my least favorite players in the league.)

On the whole, this makes sense for both teams, I think. Jazz should take some risks, given their start, and he is a legitimately useful bench scorer. Helps them financially next year too. Cavs pick up some (low level) picks, lose a possible bad actor in the locker room, and get a flier on a guy who used to look really useful and could help them tank this year.
   8. Booey Posted: December 23, 2019 at 10:03 PM (#5910765)
Seems low risk to me. Clarkson is on the last year of his contract. If he sucks or causes locker room problems, they can just bench him (they weren't playing Exum either) and then let him leave in the offseason.

No idea on the number of "Instagram influencers", but I know there's lots of rebellious young ex-Mormon girls eager to show how non-Mormon they are now. (Humble-brag alert!!!) I rarely had problems hooking up in my single days, and I'm just some guy, not a tall, millionaire professional athlete. Skirt chasers aren't going to be lonely here.
   9. Booey Posted: December 23, 2019 at 10:17 PM (#5910768)
As for their actual game, it's always disappointing to lose a close one, but I actually felt better about Utah's performance tonight - losing by 3 pts on the road against a good team - than I did about any of their recent closer than they should have been wins over lottery teams.
   10. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 23, 2019 at 11:04 PM (#5910770)
Jazz also cut Jeff Green to give Rayjon Tucker a multi year deal. He’s been a big scorer for the Bucks G League entry (living at the line 69% on 5.4 attempts - but they shoot only one shot to represent all attempts in a sequence so that’s almost the league lead), but also effective elsewhere (55% from two on 10.3 fga, 39% from three on 5.5 shots). Somewhat undersized two (6-3 209) is very athletic but doesn’t offer much else at a potentially plus level (iffy motor on d, bad playmaker, rebounded well in college but not so far as a pro)
   11. Booey Posted: December 23, 2019 at 11:11 PM (#5910771)
Huh. That one is surprising. I mean, it's probably irrelevant, but I didn't see it coming.
   12. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 23, 2019 at 11:30 PM (#5910774)
I knew that Tucker was rumored to be in demand but this surprised me too
   13. jmurph Posted: December 24, 2019 at 07:21 AM (#5910790)
One of the most infuriating players I've ever watched. The bright side is that he will absolutely hate Utah. One of the premier #####-chasers of the NBA.

Had no idea that Clarkson was a storm-chaser. It does make sense that he would prefer a midwestern city like Cleveland to Utah, but Los Angeles was clearly the worst option of the three, so he must be happy that city is behind him.
   14. tshipman Posted: December 24, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5910830)
Storm chaser is a good way to describe Clarkson's approach to defense.
   15. spivey Posted: December 24, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5910832)
The NBA schedule is really delicious tomorrow, except for that Rockets/Warriors game. Oof. I mean, the Pels/Nugs game is also weak, but I can turn my attention to something else at that point.

On a side note, there's been some disappointment in Philly's start to the season. But they are 22-10, which puts them on pace for a 55+ win season, which I expect is probably right around where their preseason win over-under sat. I think they have been a bit disappointing, though I think everyone knew their offense could struggle and was going to take time. But I think other teams playing above their expectation (Miami, Boston, Toronto, Indiana) make their start look worse.
   16. jmurph Posted: December 24, 2019 at 02:29 PM (#5910865)
On a side note, there's been some disappointment in Philly's start to the season. But they are 22-10, which puts them on pace for a 55+ win season, which I expect is probably right around where their preseason win over-under sat. I think they have been a bit disappointing, though I think everyone knew their offense could struggle and was going to take time. But I think other teams playing above their expectation (Miami, Boston, Toronto, Indiana) make their start look worse.

I mostly agree with all of this. They'll likely also make moves to improve because they're pretty much all in right now.

I'm just getting my shots in now because I suspect they'd beat the Celtics like 4-1 in the playoffs.
   17. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 24, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5910872)
On a side note, there's been some disappointment in Philly's start to the season. But they are 22-10, which puts them on pace for a 55+ win season, which I expect is probably right around where their preseason win over-under sat. I think they have been a bit disappointing, though I think everyone knew their offense could struggle and was going to take time. But I think other teams playing above their expectation (Miami, Boston, Toronto, Indiana) make their start look worse.
record vs. <.500 opponents:

BOS: 13-1
MIL: 18-0
PHI: 15-3
TOR: 16-0
   18. jmurph Posted: December 24, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5910875)
Despite that, by BBRef’s numbers, the Sixers have had the 23rd toughest schedule, Toronto the 5th (everyone else in this list has also had an easy schedule).
   19. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 24, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5910877)
Nugs extend Malone
   20. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 24, 2019 at 06:40 PM (#5910892)
Dialing the thread:

#1615 - Disagree with the idea of just adding points for a foul. With the exception of goaltending, points should never be added unless the ball actually goes through the hoop.


#hoopideas I think we need to go a step further here. If there's a goaltend, the offending party has to stand motionless underneath the hoop while the aggrieved party gets to dunk on them.
   21. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: December 24, 2019 at 08:17 PM (#5910894)
Dialing the thread:

#1615 - Disagree with the idea of just adding points for a foul. With the exception of goaltending, points should never be added unless the ball actually goes through the hoop.


#hoopideas I think we need to go a step further here. If there's a goaltend, the offending party has to stand motionless underneath the hoop while the aggrieved party gets to dunk on them.


As someone who refuses to watch basketball because I can't stand the strategy of fouling in the last few minutes of a game, I love the idea. Make the penalty for fouling heavy enough, it would eliminate the anti-sporting strategy.

My problem with the fouling strategy is that sports is supposed to be about competition within a set of rules. Once it is advantages to get caught breaking rules, it turns the activity from sports to a level equivalent to WWE "sports entertainment". The penalty for breaking rules should always be punitive enough to discourage purposeful penalties.
   22. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: December 25, 2019 at 01:19 AM (#5910905)
In my zeal to be dismissive of #hoopideas in general, I overstated my case: there are other two changes I'm in favor of, and one is sort of a #hoopidea

1) drastically relaxing the salary-matching rules for trades (this doesn't directly affect the on-court product, ergo it is not a #hoopidea)
2) intentional fouls to stop fast breaks should result in either two shots and the ball, like a clear path violation, or the execution by beheading of the fouling player.
   23. Booey Posted: December 25, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5910917)
Merry Christmas, y'all.
   24. CFBF's Overflowing Pathos Posted: December 25, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5910924)
I guess my hot take is that the NBA seems fine and there's really no need for huge changes?
   25. Booey Posted: December 25, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5910926)
IMO, they should never let "fine" get in the way of "better" though...
   26. SteveF Posted: December 25, 2019 at 02:36 PM (#5910928)
Fouling at the end of games keeps the outcome in doubt for longer and in theory maintains TV ratings, Cleveland fan notwithstanding.

Merry Christmas to you too, Booey, and Merry Christmas to the rest of you basketball degenerates.

I'm really looking forward to this Sixers/Bucks game. I'm very interested to see how well Philly holds up defensively.
   27. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 25, 2019 at 02:42 PM (#5910929)
white donte getting some love.
   28. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 25, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5910930)
Fouling at the end of games keeps the outcome in doubt for longer and in theory maintains TV ratings, Cleveland fan notwithstanding.
but not in a good way. when games get decided like that, it feels cheap.
   29. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 25, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5910931)
i'm not a shoe guy kind of person, but embiid's shoes are insanely amazing.
   30. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 25, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5910934)
great gameplan by brett brown to have his team make so many 3Ps. let's hope he doesn't change it for the 2nd half.
   31. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 25, 2019 at 03:33 PM (#5910935)
21 point halftime lead.

what could possiblie go rong.
   32. jmurph Posted: December 25, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5910936)
You let the Sixers limit turnovers like that you’re generally going to lose.
   33. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 25, 2019 at 05:04 PM (#5910944)
Clarkson/Exum: Amused by the sidebars,especially Booey bragging about scoring with lapsed Mormons. Bill Simmons would be proud.
As to the deal,it makes sense for both teams.Clarkson is overpaid and can't do anything but score some, but he is at the end of his deal, and he fits on a team that needs a guy off the bench who can put the ball in the basket.Exum and two no 2s is the kind of take-a-shot move that makes sense for a team like Cleveland.

Milwaukee/Philadelphia: Only takeaways other than Variance! for me were that if Philadelphia can actually slow down Antetokpounmpo,they can give Milwaukee some trouble in a series. And as good as he was today, Embiid probably needs to drop some weight. I think James probably does as well, FWIW.

Happy Holidays to the thread. This is the 10th Christmas Day of the NBA thread.
   34. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: December 25, 2019 at 06:17 PM (#5910953)
Jaylen Brown’s fifth 30-point game of the season came with 6 boards, 4 assists, and on only 13 attempts. I don’t think they regret that extension.
   35. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 25, 2019 at 06:59 PM (#5910956)
The Sixers borrowed the Bucks’ strategy of taking 3s and making 3s and used it against Giannis and Milwaukee’s top-ranked defense.

from bill simmons' the ringer, the site that, you know...
   36. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 25, 2019 at 08:53 PM (#5910960)
The thread is that old? Wow.
Merry Christmas, continued Happy Hanukkah, have a good upcoming Kwanzaa, and so on to all y’all.
   37. spivey Posted: December 25, 2019 at 08:58 PM (#5910961)
The Philly game felt like a lot of variance, but Embiid guarded Giannis well.
   38. tshipman Posted: December 25, 2019 at 09:19 PM (#5910963)
The Philly game felt like a lot of variance, but Embiid guarded Giannis well.


Vs. Dallas: 41 3pa, 39% 3p% allowed
vs. LAL: 35 3pa, 34% 3p% allowed
@ Philly: 44 3pa, 48% 3p% allowed

This is what scares me about Milwaukee--they allow so many 3pers that they really can lose to anyone.
   39. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 25, 2019 at 09:50 PM (#5910966)
That’s my main worry too, though 7 game series help there.
That said, I like how philly matches up against them (and did before today’s game)
   40. SteveF Posted: December 25, 2019 at 10:14 PM (#5910969)
41% of Milwaukee's opponents shots are 3s. The Lakers and Clippers are at about 38%. That's 3 more 3s a game. Does that merit placing Milwaukee in some special risk category relative to other contenders? That's not a rhetorical question.

My own feeling is it doesn't. I'd like to see how well variance in points allowed correlates with % of opponent shots being 3's. My guess is the correlation isn't that strong.
   41. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 25, 2019 at 10:29 PM (#5910973)
I’ll restate. Bud’s defense, as good as it is (and as good as he is as a coach) is designed to give up threes from certain spots in order to cut off other options. Better offenses, on average, can exploit that in the postseason.

Now, I’m not sure that this is a particular advantage for Philly. What I see as particularly helpful for them is that I think Embiid can cause a lot of problems for Milwaukee’s bigs and that that combined with the threes could be a problem. Also, I’m curious as to how well Giannis can slice through a potentially potent Sixers D.

It’s a marginal advantage, not an absolute one, and the Bucks are the best in the east. But Philly is the scariest opponent they’ve got in-conference.
   42. tshipman Posted: December 25, 2019 at 10:32 PM (#5910974)
41% of Milwaukee's opponents shots are 3s. The Lakers and Clippers are at about 38%. That's 3 more 3s a game. Does that merit placing Milwaukee in some special risk category relative to other contenders? That's not a rhetorical question.


Milwaukee is 2nd in the league in 3pa, and they don't have the tools to make an adjustment in a playoff series.

Last year while losing 4 in a row to bounce out of the playoffs:
Game 3: 45 3pers against, 38%
Game 4: 41 3pers against, 34%
Game 5: 43 3pers against, 42%
Game 6: 27 3pers against, 44%

It's 2019. Every team takes a ton of 3s, but Milwaukee is built to concede them in a way that is pretty darn problematic in the playoffs.
   43. PJ Martinez Posted: December 25, 2019 at 10:41 PM (#5910976)
Just to add to 15: the Sixers currently have a better winning percentage, and a significantly better point differential, than they had last year. But Toronto basically holding on without Kawhi and Boston improving significantly and Miami improving by leaps and bounds obscures that a bit.

Also, Philly seems to match up reasonably well with Milwaukee, and they definitely match up well with Boston, so the idea of them remaining kind of disappointing all season long and then making the Finals doesn't seem far-fetched. (I'm hoping that was a reverse jinx, obviously.)
   44. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 26, 2019 at 12:04 AM (#5910977)
Milwaukee: The 3 scheme thing may have some legs, but I am a little skeptical that it is some potentially fatal tactical weakness. Have your own superstar/slow down Antetokounmpo a bit/make a lot of 3s is sort of where beating Milwaukee seems to be, and that is water-is-wet obvious. Toronto did it four times last year, and Philadelphia did it today.

Clippers/Lakers: Thoroughly unsurprising. Like most people, I thought the Clippers were a little better going into the season, and I have seen nothing that has made me think otherwise. James is still great, but he is old and a little heavy-legged, and they need somebody better than Rondo in the job/role Rondo occupies. James was 2/12 on 3s, and got picked by Beverley, who was +26, on the Lakers' last look at the game. Leonard outscored James 35/23 and came up pretty big late. Variance played a role--the Lakers were 12/45 from the arc, and Kuzma, KCP, and Green all missed decent looks late. But the Clippers were not on fire and were able to win with George and Williams having off-nights.

I am ofc not big on dissecting tactics, but the Lakers did stand around too much late. Vogel and Co. need to get Davis moving off the ball in those spots sometimes. Handing the ball to James 40 feet from the basket and getting out of the way on key late possessions is another thing that might work if James were 29, but he's not.

The game was good from a rivalry/narrative standpoint, what with Beverley taunting the fans and then hamming it up with a red-faced Ballmer after the call.
   45. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: December 26, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5911002)
Fouling at the end of games keeps the outcome in doubt for longer and in theory maintains TV ratings, Cleveland fan notwithstanding.


So you would be fine with umpires allowing the losing team in the 9th inning to bat people in any order they want. I mean batting out of order is just a rule, so no need to use it to penalize a team if it keeps the outcome in doubt longer. I mean who wouldn't want to see Trout bat in the 9th even though he made the last out in the 8th.

Making people play by the rules is more important than keeping the game in doubt longer. Other sports seem to survive when the outcome is clear late in the game.

Can you name me one other sport where openly* breaking the rules is a strategic part of winning?

*breaking the rules without being caught is clearly a different matter, but is not what is being discussed here.
   46. PJ Martinez Posted: December 26, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5911003)
If you were redoing the 2016 draft in the present, what's the order of the top 5?
   47. tshipman Posted: December 26, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5911013)
If you were redoing the 2016 draft in the present, what's the order of the top 5?


Weirdly, it's not insane that the top 3 go as it was: Simmons/Ingram/Jaylen Brown.

However, if you're doing a full redraft, I *think* it's still Simmons #1 (even though he doesn't fit with Embiid at all).

1. Simmons
2. Siakam
3. ??? Sabonis???--Sabonis and Brogdon are the weird wildcards. They've both had better careers to date than Ingram or Brown, but have less projectibility going forward.
4. Ingram
5. Brown
   48. Scott Lange Posted: December 26, 2019 at 01:55 PM (#5911050)
Can you name me one other sport where openly* breaking the rules is a strategic part of winning?

Soccer - players commit tactical fouls several times per game on average
Football - teams take delay of game penalties and intentional safeties for better field position regularly.
Baseball - Kenley Jansen committed an intentional balk earlier this year.

Also, and I don't mean to flippant, I'm not sure there's a definable difference between a simple act like "throwing a pitch off the plate hoping to draw a swing" and what you would call "breaking the rules (like, by fouling in basketball.") You commit a foul, there's a prescribed penalty (like free throws), and if it's worth the price, teams do it intentionally. Likewise, you can throw a pitch off the plate, there's a prescribed penalty (3 more like that and the batter goes to first base), and if it's worth the price, players will do it intentionally. Is it different just because one act is called a "foul" and the other is "part of the game"? I'm not sure there's a real distinction there.

To be clear, I hate the intentional fouling from an aesthetic point of view. I also think it decreases ratings because it's boring to watch. It does drag out the last 2 minutes of game time, but that just makes everyone adjust their frame of reference. If there was no intentional fouling, then everyone would be more excited about the last 5 or 7 or 9 minutes. Bring on the Elam ending!
   49. PJ Martinez Posted: December 26, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5911055)
I'd been thinking that Siakam was the clear number one, despite how much older he is than Simmons/Ingram/Brown, but looking over his numbers they aren't *that* much more impressive than those of the other guys.

Brogdon's really good but he's 27 — this may very well be the best year that he has.

Ingram's putting up gaudy offensive stats but his defense doesn't grade out well and his team stinks (I haven't watched them at all, so I don't have my own sense of his contribution to that).

Should Sabonis add the three-point shot to his arsenal? He's a decent free throw shooter, and has had respectable three-point percentages on few attempts. I agree that he has less projectibility; maybe that would help?

Brown has been really good all around this year, but it's a pretty big leap from his first three years — I could understand some skepticism about whether 28 games should dramatically change our sense of his potential going forward.

Simmons's fit issues go beyond just Embiid, IMO; he's a very good player, but I'd lean against taking him no. 1.

I could see arguments going any number of ways.
   50. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 26, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5911057)
Making people play by the rules is more important than keeping the game in doubt longer.

You evidently need the concept of "playing by the rules" explained to you.
   51. tshipman Posted: December 26, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5911069)
Simmons's fit issues go beyond just Embiid, IMO; he's a very good player, but I'd lean against taking him no. 1.


I think Simmons + shooters is a great lineup, but:

a) we haven't ever actually seen that
b) would require a different coach than Brett Brown
c) would require a team to build around him

My theory is that Simmons with a spread floor is diet Giannis. I think I'd still take him first overall because no one else in that draft has the potential of being a #1 guy on a championship team. I do think that Simmons still does, but probably never on the 76ers.
   52. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 26, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5911087)
My theory is that Simmons with a spread floor is diet Giannis. I think I'd still take him first overall because no one else in that draft has the potential of being a #1 guy on a championship team. I do think that Simmons still does, but probably never on the 76ers.

nah. simmons' vision and creativity has been very well hidden by the rigidly mechanical offense the sixers use, but it's still there. in a less stagnant offense, he would be able to find shooters and cutters all around the floor, in a way that giannis just can't.
I'd been thinking that Siakam was the clear number one, despite how much older he is than Simmons/Ingram/Brown, but looking over his numbers they aren't *that* much more impressive than those of the other guys.
you also have to consider the surplus value that simmons has banked over the previous 2 seasons.


   53. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 26, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5911089)
trade machine: who says no:

NOP: tharris
UTA: favors, trey burke
PHI: bogdanovic, redick
   54. tshipman Posted: December 26, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5911094)
nah. simmons' vision and creativity has been very well hidden by the rigidly mechanical offense the sixers use, but it's still there. in a less stagnant offense, he would be able to find shooters and cutters all around the floor, in a way that giannis just can't.


nah. simmons' reluctance to shoot and inability to convert outside of 3 feet has been very well hidden by the rigidly mechanical offense the sixers use, but it's still there. in a role that required more shot creation, he would be stopped by good team defense, in a way that giannis just overpowers.
   55. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 26, 2019 at 05:00 PM (#5911095)
nah. simmons' reluctance to shoot and inability to convert outside of 3 feet has been very well hidden by the rigidly mechanical offense the sixers use, but it's still there. in a role that required more shot creation, he would be stopped by good team defense, in a way that giannis just overpowers.
??????????????
   56. tshipman Posted: December 26, 2019 at 05:13 PM (#5911096)
Simmons takes 10.8 shots per 36, Giannis takes 23.7, or more than double. Simmons takes 4.4 FTs, Giannis takes 12.0.

Put another way, usage 2019:
Simmons 19.7%
Giannis 38.1%

While Simmons is a nearly comparable finisher to Giannis, he's completely hopeless from midrange (10-16), where Simmons averages 29% shooting (18%!!!!) this year.

You can't just scale up 2019 Simmons to Giannis level shot creation because teams can just wall him off at the midrange. Giannis has solved that problem by being an increasingly willing shooter from 3, and by simply physically overpowering guys and finishing through contact. Simmons hasn't shown those abilities.

I agree that Simmons has better vision, but until he demonstrates that he can handle alpha dog usage, you can't project MVP level performance. Giannis is going to be back to back MVP, put some respect on the man's name.
   57. SteveF Posted: December 26, 2019 at 05:40 PM (#5911100)
Simmons is so bad as the ball handler in PNR that it places a significant limit on his usefulness as the primary ball handler, especially in the playoffs.
   58. tshipman Posted: December 26, 2019 at 05:59 PM (#5911104)
Simmons is so bad as the ball handler in PNR that it places a significant limit on his usefulness as the primary ball handler, especially in the playoffs.


He's been awful this year (0.67 ppp as ballhandler), but was good last year (0.96 PPP). I'd like to see him with the floor spread, but it will never happen with Brown.
   59. Booey Posted: December 26, 2019 at 06:26 PM (#5911107)
#53 - Uh, the Jazz? Why would they trade away their one big offseason acquisition that's actually living up to expectations to run it back with last year's big man spacing issue problem that lost 4-1 in the first round?

I do miss Favors, but there's no way I'd trade Bogey to get him back. Bogdanovic has been exactly what the team needed. It's everything else that hasn't gone according to plan.
   60. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: December 26, 2019 at 06:33 PM (#5911109)
It's hard to effectively run a pick-and-roll when your ball handler's defender is playing 12 feet off of him.
   61. spivey Posted: December 26, 2019 at 06:54 PM (#5911114)
Milwaukee: The 3 scheme thing may have some legs, but I am a little skeptical that it is some potentially fatal tactical weakness. Have your own superstar/slow down Antetokounmpo a bit/make a lot of 3s is sort of where beating Milwaukee seems to be, and that is water-is-wet obvious. Toronto did it four times last year, and Philadelphia did it today.

This is where I'm at. I think Philly may be the best team to guard Giannis (though Giannis has had huge games against Embiid and Philly in the past), but I don't see why we should expect why Philly has any sort of particular gameplan or personnel to really exploit Milwaukee's defense. Their 3 point shooting sucks.

The one thing I think you could maybe say about Milwaukee's defense is because of it's scheme, perhaps there is a smaller gap between their regular season defense and playoff defense, while teams that don't concede above the break 3s so much may not. But Milwaukee has had a great record in the regular season last year and this against top teams, against weak teams, and their point differential in total last playoffs was very good. Toronto won close games, Kawhi outplayed Giannis, and Toronto significantly outshot them from 3.

   62. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 26, 2019 at 07:11 PM (#5911117)
While Simmons is a nearly comparable finisher to Giannis, he's completely hopeless from midrange (10-16), where Simmons averages 29% shooting (18%!!!!) this year.

You can't just scale up 2019 Simmons to Giannis level shot creation because teams can just wall him off at the midrange. Giannis has solved that problem by being an increasingly willing shooter from 3, and by simply physically overpowering guys and finishing through contact. Simmons hasn't shown those abilities.
yes, but all of those things are literally the first topic in any conversation about simmons, so you can't say they've been hidden by the sixers' offensive scheme.
I agree that Simmons has better vision, but until he demonstrates that he can handle alpha dog usage, you can't project MVP level performance. Giannis is going to be back to back MVP, put some respect on the man's name.
yeah, that's not really the issue here, either. i have plenty of respect for giannis:
4056. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 29, 2018 at 12:29 AM (#5801001)
I think Doncic’s odds of being a top 5 player at any point in his career are less than 5%. That’s terrible analysis without statistical or scouting basis. Top 5 fanboy army, maybe.
there are very few players in the world who i'd trade ben simmons straight up to get. when the possibility came up this summer, i was pretty adamant about not being willing to trade simmons for kawhi (granted, that was not a simple situation, but it's emblematic. i wouldn't trade simmons for lebron. or durant. or curry. or anyone over 30. i wouldn't trade him for jokic or okafor or towns or oladipo or kemba or kyrie or paul george or gordon ahwveryd or harden or tatoom.

according to my own personal ranking, the list of players who i would trade ben simmons straight up for is anthony davis, giannis, maybe kawhi ...and maybe doncic. i don't think anyone else even comes close.



also, i'm pretty sure i've never mentioned ben simmons in any conversation about MVP contention. however, now that you've brought it up, i think i'll give some thought as to what simmons could do to get to that level. be prepared....
   63. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 26, 2019 at 07:12 PM (#5911118)
#53 - Uh, the Jazz? Why would they trade away their one big offseason acquisition that's actually living up to expectations to run it back with last year's big man spacing issue problem that lost 4-1 in the first round?

I do miss Favors, but there's no way I'd trade Bogey to get him back. Bogdanovic has been exactly what the team needed. It's everything else that hasn't gone according to plan.
because it's funny.
   64. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 26, 2019 at 07:21 PM (#5911120)
Simmons: Watching 76ers/Bucks and Lakers/Clippers yesterday, it occurred to me that Simmons would fit well in LeBron James' job, and James could quite possibly get the 76ers over the top. Who says no? Ha. It actually doesn't even work in the Trade Machine until Simmons' extension kicks in.

The problems with Simmons are basic: he doesn't shoot 3s, and largely due to that, he is not really getting better. I have never been a big fan of either Jaylen Brown or Brandon Ingram, but they are actually improving. Simmons isn't, and I think there is a real cap on how valuable a guy can be in today's game with no 3P game. Embiid is trying 3.6 3s a game now and is hitting them at a .330 rate.
   65. Howie Menckel Posted: December 26, 2019 at 10:34 PM (#5911150)
Elias Sports Bureau
@EliasSports
·
31m
The Brooklyn Nets' eight two-point field goals on Thursday were the fewest by a team in a game since Nov. 22, 1950, when the Lakers and Pistons each made four FG in a game famous for its final score (19-18, Ft. Wayne). The 24-second shot clock debuted less than four years later.
   66. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 26, 2019 at 10:43 PM (#5911151)

Can you name me one other sport where openly* breaking the rules is a strategic part of winning?


"Intentional grounding" is a penalty in football, yet a quarterback at the end of the game is allowed to take the snap and immediately throw it into the ground in order to stop the clock.
   67. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 26, 2019 at 11:33 PM (#5911154)
Adding to 65:

Brooklyn went 21/78 from the floor--13/50 from 3 and 8/28 from 2

New York, getting big nights from Julius Randle and Marcus Morris, who combined for 55 points on 22/42 from the floor, went 9/29 on 3s, and won 94-82.

I really like the NBA of today, although it is not the game I grew up on. In a lot of ways it is better than that game. But sometimes they jack up too many 3s and it actually gets sort of boring, sort of like TTO 2010s baseball can get boring.
   68. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 27, 2019 at 12:04 AM (#5911160)
from bill simmons' the ringer, a site that hasn't posted a ho kogan sex tape (yet):
The NBA All-Development Team
...
Richaun Holmes, Sacramento Kings
Holmes has always been an exclamation point player: emphatic, attention-grabbing, and best used in small doses. His play this season has changed that premise. Like Harrell before him, Holmes has made the transition from energy player to impact player—and not a moment too soon, considering the Kings’ pressing need for quality center minutes. There are still games when Holmes jumps his way into early foul trouble, but in general his defense is noticeably calmer than in years past. There’s a lot of good in a big who is quick on his feet and understands when—and when not—to leave them. Holmes is getting there, and is far enough along already to help support Sacramento’s best defensive lineups. This is big news for a player who was already a tantalizing rim runner, and one of the saving graces that has kept the Kings within range of what could be their first playoff appearance in 14 years.

#hinkielives
   69. Eddo Posted: December 27, 2019 at 05:09 AM (#5911169)
"Intentional grounding" is a penalty in football, yet a quarterback at the end of the game is allowed to take the snap and immediately throw it into the ground in order to stop the clock.

That's not intentional grounding, though. Intentional grounding is only a penalty when the quarterback is actively under pressure (and even then, comes with of exceptions), and in an endgame spike scenario, that's not the case.

A better football example would be something like an intentional safety (which is really rare, maybe once a year) or teams taking a delay of game penalty before punting so they get farther from the other team's end zone (which can be declined by the defense, and also doesn't stop the action like fouling in basketball does).
   70. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: December 27, 2019 at 07:51 AM (#5911171)
In college football, defensive pass interference is a 15 yard penalty, regardless of where it occurred. So you will see a beaten defender grab hold of or trip up the receiver that beat him deep, because certainly giving up 15 yards is better than probably giving up 6 points.

In the NFL defensive pass interference results in the ball being placed at the spot of the foul--and a lot of fans wish the NFL would go back to the college rule, because "chuck it deep and hope for a pass interference penalty" is a tactic, some receivers are pretty good at Hollywooding like a soccer player trying to draw the penalty flag, and no one on Earth has a clear idea of what pass interference is.
   71. billyshears Posted: December 27, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5911174)
Isn't the issue that the rules of the game should generally make the game better to watch, whereas the foul rule, as currently applied in end of game situations, makes the game materially worse to watch? The penalty for breaking a rule shouldn't be so low that people intentionally do it all the f'in time.
   72. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 27, 2019 at 11:15 AM (#5911184)

That's not intentional grounding, though.


It is under any normal definition of the term, though. It's true the NFL has redefined the term "intentional grounding" so that certain kinds of grounding the ball intentionally don't apply. How is this different from the NBA, which punishes deliberate fouls by two free throws and possession, but allows players to foul deliberately at the end of games without the additional penalty?
   73. billyshears Posted: December 27, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5911194)
It is under any normal definition of the term, though. It's true the NFL has redefined the term "intentional grounding" so that certain kinds of grounding the ball intentionally don't apply. How is this different from the NBA, which punishes deliberate fouls by two free throws and possession, but allows players to foul deliberately at the end of games without the additional penalty?


I think you have to look at penalties as generally equitable events - they're mostly meant to compensate the innocent team to the state they would have been in the normal operation of play but for the penalty. That's why the intentional grounding penalty is how it is - because if the QB would have been sacked but for a BS no chance spike to the ground, then the defense should be rewarded with the same result as if they had actually sacked the QB. That's not the case when the QB grounds the ball for no reason other than to stop the clock. Obviously, some penalties are also meant to deter the offending behavior and you can't always truly approximate what would have happened on the field but for the penalty. But I do think the general intent of penalties is to provide an impetus for most teams to play fair, most of the time, so that the result of the game is determined by the normal course of play. I think when the rules create an incentive for teams to repeatedly commit penalties in the ordinary course, then there is a problem with the rules.
   74. PJ Martinez Posted: December 27, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5911228)
Is there any daylight between the two conferences in terms of quality this year? By net rating, the top ten is divided equally between the conferences, with the East taking the top two slots plus 7-8-9; both conferences have seven teams above .500; the bottom of the East is worse but the difference there doesn't seem dramatic to me.
   75. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 27, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5911237)
74-
Not that much diff and that is one reason I am meh on reseeding.
   76. Booey Posted: December 27, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5911253)
#75 - But there's been a huge difference more often than not over the past 20 years. Re-seeding will improve things whenever one conference is stronger and be neutral in the years when they're evenly matched. It doesn't seem like it'll ever be a negative. To each their own, but to me it seems like a no brainer if you can be better half the time and the same the other half.
   77. tshipman Posted: December 27, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5911261)
It's not like the East really got better.

A bunch of western teams got absolutely brutalized with injury. Four out of the 5 worst teams in the league are in the East, and one of them (Charlotte) is a game or two out of the 8th seed.
   78. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: December 27, 2019 at 08:38 PM (#5911301)
trade machine: who says no?

PHI: robert covington
MIN: zach lavine
CHI: josh richardson, jake layman
   79. yo la tengo Posted: December 27, 2019 at 09:08 PM (#5911304)
I am confused that this trade creates such an imbalance of projected wins. Feels like these should be close to zero sum transactions. I am certain I am missing something fundamental abut the calculations.
   80. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 27, 2019 at 09:08 PM (#5911305)
76-reseeding

I think you are overestimating straight up W-L in creating the best matchups, and underrating some of the narrative/fan value of getting through the conference/geographic rival/opponent to get to the Finals. I do not follow football all that closely anymore, but I think that one reason to my knowledge no one talks about reseeding the NFL is that getting through the internal rival to get to the Super Bowl has appeal. For example, this year as usual we have everybody in the AFC vs. New England, with possible rematches of KC/NE from last year and rematch of NE/BAL from this year's regular season, and there will likely be rematches among GB/MIN/NO/SEA/SF in the NFC. IND/NE was a big thing when Manning was still active; DAL/SF was big in the NFC in the 1990s. In the NBA, there has been PHI/BOS, CHI/NY and CHI/DET, plus LeBron James vs. Boston in CLE and MIA in the East, and everybody vs. the Lakers and San Antonio in the West. PHX/SA was big in the 00s etc.

My team ofc has an actual "Finals rival" that they have played 12 times in the Finals, including five since the merger, so that skews my perspective. But I think that reseeding the conference finals, which is what is actually on the table, is mostly a TV thing to help ABC avoid the occasional Finals mismatch.

77-conference strength

Golden State has been wrecked by injuries, but at the same time Durant is gone and Oladipo has been out. Miami, Toronto and Boston all appear to be better than expected. So in both conferences we seem to have a favorite (LAC, MIL) an obvious challenger (LAL, PHI) and then other good teams who may make some noise. The West is better 7-11.
   81. SteveF Posted: December 27, 2019 at 09:24 PM (#5911306)
By SRS the average West team is .5 points better than the average East team so far this year. Last year the average West team was 2 points better. So, the West is still better than the East by that metric, but the gap has closed significantly.

That said, I'm more optimistic about the bad teams in the West than I am the bad teams in the East, so I'd expect things to return to "normal" next year (even assuming Brooklyn/Golden State improvements cancel each other out, which is no guarantee given the type of injury Durant has).

   82. JC in DC Posted: December 27, 2019 at 09:43 PM (#5911311)
The Fultzes beat the Simmonses tonight.
   83. PJ Martinez Posted: December 28, 2019 at 11:59 AM (#5911376)
Happy trails, Zach Randolph, who officially retired.
   84. KronicFatigue Posted: December 28, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5911435)
I think you have to look at penalties as generally equitable events - they're mostly meant to compensate the innocent team to the state they would have been in the normal operation of play but for the penalty.


Pretty good description of the goal of penalties. For me, penalties (and rules in general) exist to try and get teams to play the "purest" form of the sport. I don't like intentional fouling at the end of the game because it ceases to be "basketball" at that point.
   85. Booey Posted: December 29, 2019 at 01:34 AM (#5911539)
Donovan Mitchell > Kawhi and PG :-D
   86. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 29, 2019 at 01:59 AM (#5911542)
Utah went 17/35 on 3s, while LA went 12/40. Leonard and George played a combined 73 minutes, going 12/44 from the field. Leonard was 6/24 from the floor, and -23. Clarkson had 19 off the bench for Utah.

Toronto reversed the Christmas result, winning by 16 in Boston. In the Christmas game, Boston was 14/33 from 3. Tonight, they went 7/32. I recall Popovich expressing a little frustration last year, saying that it seems like all that matters sometimes is which team does better from 3.

Doncic had 31 points, 15 assists and 12 rebounds in 30 minutes. Dallas plays the Lakers again in LA tomorrow; last time, Dallas beat the Lakers in LA by 19.
   87. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: December 29, 2019 at 09:23 AM (#5911551)
Giannis, Luka, and Harden are currently posting the 3 best PERs of all time.
   88. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 29, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5911555)
The effectively wild podcast is doing a crossover week, where they talk to stats savvy people from other sports. this episode is about basketball and features Kevin Pelton. (it's also about football and features Bill Barnwell, who reveals that he might not be a football writer working for ESPN if not for.... Baseball Primer)
   89. Booey Posted: December 29, 2019 at 12:17 PM (#5911562)
3-pt variance - While this does seem to single handedly decide individual games more often than I'd like, it also appears to balance out in the long run, so it doesn't affect overall records or increase the likelihood of playoff upsets. The two best records in the NBA - the Bucks and the Lakers - are only 12th and 19th in 3-pt percentage.

(The Jazz meanwhile are 1st, so they're going to be on the right side of 3-pt "variance" more often than not)
   90. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: December 29, 2019 at 12:36 PM (#5911566)
I think we're at a point in the NBA where now, all smart fans are aware of the role three point variance plays in wins and losses but we still develop or accept narratives that don't fully acknowledge it. I'm coming at this from the perspective of a Bucks fan and I think there's a lot of "accepted knowledge" about the team after last year's loss to Toronto that wouldn't exist if each team just shot their regular percentages in the last 3 games of the series. Another way to look at "Budenholzer can't make adjustments in the playoffs" is "Budenholzer won't overreact to losses brought on by three-point variance" but that angle gets a lot less play.

Really though I'm just salty because the Bucks are probably the reigning champs if Van Vleet and Mirotic just shoot their season averages from 3. FVV seems like a great guy but I'm resigned to hating him forever.
   91. Booey Posted: December 29, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5911567)
Been loving JIngles resurgence since he's been moved back into the starting lineup, btw. I was afraid that he might finally be starting to show his age, but he's now up to .409 on 3's for the year, and in his last 8 games (Jazz are 7-1), Joe's averaging 18.5 ppg, 5.6 rebs, and 5.1 ast on .576/.571/1.000 shooting splits.

Now, if only Conley can discover the same fountain of youth upon his return, all will be right in Jazzland.
   92. Booey Posted: December 29, 2019 at 01:08 PM (#5911568)
#90 - Maybe, but I also think people were/are underrating last years Raptors. They won 58 games while generously resting their stars. The Bucks won 60. That's not much of an upset.

Basically, I think 3-pt variance can often be the difference in a toss-up series, but we're not seeing 7th and 8th seeds - or even 4th and 5th seeds - "variancing" their way past the top seeds. Overall talent still determines who wins most series. Having 3-pers serve as a tie-breaker between evenly matched teams seems as good a way to determine a winner as any. It doesn't feel like a problem, IMO.
   93. Booey Posted: December 29, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5911569)
Also, people rarely talked about it much before, but the NBA has always been a make or miss league. We've just substituted long and mid-range 2-pt variance with 3-pt variance.
   94. tshipman Posted: December 29, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5911576)
Basically, I think 3-pt variance can often be the difference in a toss-up series, but we're not seeing 7th and 8th seeds - or even 4th and 5th seeds - "variancing" their way past the top seeds. Overall talent still determines who wins most series. Having 3-pers serve as a tie-breaker between evenly matched teams seems as good a way to determine a winner as any. It doesn't feel like a problem, IMO.


2011 Dallas Mavericks are a prime example of 3p variance. In the regular season, they shot 36.5% from 3 and opponents shot 34.3%.

In the playoffs, they shot 39.4% from 3 (46% in the sweep over the defending champ Lakers), and their opponents shot 29% from 3.

The 2011 Mavs absolutely varianced their way to a championship and no one ever acknowledges it.

Another way to look at "Budenholzer can't make adjustments in the playoffs" is "Budenholzer won't overreact to losses brought on by three-point variance" but that angle gets a lot less play.


I mean, yes, but Bud really did make changes in game 6 and it was effective at reducing the number of 3p shots and percentage. It was just too late after they got murdered from 3 in three straight games. I am pretty sure I called this out at the time.
   95. Booey Posted: December 29, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5911583)
Tship - Everyone acknowledges that the 2011 Mavs were a somewhat fluky champion. I've never seen a list of the most surprising NBA champs that didn't include them near the top.

That said, they also did win 57 games during the regular season, the same number as the defending champion Lakers they beat in the 2nd round, 2 more than the Thunder that they beat in the WCF, and only 1 fewer than the Heatles that they beat in the Finals. All of those were by record essentially evenly matched, toss up series. Surprise or not, the Mavs weren't some 47 win 7th seed lucking their way into a title.
   96. Booey Posted: December 29, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5911585)
If teams in the bottom half of the playoff picture start riding 3-pt variance to fluky titles, then I think the trend might start to become an issue. But thus far we've just seen a few contenders use it to beat other contenders. The Raptors had the 2nd best record in the NBA. They didn't beat anyone who was more than 2 games ahead of them in the standings. The Mavs tied for the 2nd best record in the West. They didn't beat anyone who was more than 1 game ahead of them in the standings. Teams like that winning aren't a problem, IMO.
   97. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 29, 2019 at 04:16 PM (#5911595)

Donovan Mitchell > Kawhi and PG :-D


Listening to last night's game was great, sure wish I could actually watch it while I'm in Utah, but you know NBA had to destroy r/nbastreams while keeping league pass as shitty as ever.

Since I ripped Donovan's play on here, it seems like he's played brilliantly. So I'm taking all the credit. I did go to the game against the Blazers and he was nearly perfect. Him following that up with maybe an even better game while being guarded by PG, Beverly, and Kawhi is really encouraging.

And I think even once Conley is back they have to keep Ingles in the starting lineup or match up his minutes with Rudy's as much as possible. He's so good at running P&Rs; with lob threats. I'm glad that his early season struggles look more like just a bad stretch/bad fit for his role than sudden age-related decline.

Jazz could still really use a better backup center too. I would say maybe Ed Davis looks so bad and slow because of his leg injury, but he looked the same before the injury.
   98. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: December 29, 2019 at 06:04 PM (#5911610)
The Wolves are wretched. What could they get for Covington from, say, the Sixers?
   99. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: December 29, 2019 at 07:03 PM (#5911618)
If teams in the bottom half of the playoff picture start riding 3-pt variance to fluky titles, then I think the trend might start to become an issue. But thus far we've just seen a few contenders use it to beat other contenders. The Raptors had the 2nd best record in the NBA. They didn't beat anyone who was more than 2 games ahead of them in the standings. The Mavs tied for the 2nd best record in the West. They didn't beat anyone who was more than 1 game ahead of them in the standings. Teams like that winning aren't a problem, IMO

oh yeah, I agree, I don't mean to come off like I think the Raptors weren't deserving of the win. They were a great team. Teams winning like that aren't a problem for the league, it's only a problem if you're a fan of the team that loses. For me, it sticks in the craw that the narrative is "Bud is a choker and the Bucks are fatally flawed in the playoffs" instead of "the Raps were a great team and also shot unsustainably well to win a close series."
   100. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 29, 2019 at 07:10 PM (#5911619)
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