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Monday, December 23, 2019

OT - NBA Thread 2020

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully none of the other ones posted a duplicate thread to this.

Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 23, 2019 at 04:40 PM | 768 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off-topic

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   401. Booey Posted: January 13, 2020 at 09:12 PM (#5915424)
Flip again
   402. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 13, 2020 at 11:47 PM (#5915487)
SGA with 20-20-10 tonight. So much fun young talent in the NBA right now.
   403. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:59 AM (#5915565)
Every time I get excited about the Celtics I remember they're going to get swept by the 7th seeded Sixers in the first round and then I get sad.
   404. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:03 AM (#5915568)
I...really, really want LeBron to win the MVP.
   405. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:12 AM (#5915575)
#404 - Hard to argue for him over Giannis though, IMO. Antetokounmpo is putting up better numbers and will likely lead his team to a better record despite not having a teammate anywhere near as good as AD.
   406. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5915577)
NJ in NY could really want him to win the MVP and understand that he does not deserve it more tha Giannis.
   407. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5915581)
#406 - I understand that.
   408. spivey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:22 AM (#5915587)
I think Milwaukee's supporting cast 2-12 is better than the Lakers. I mean, AD is definitely better than Middleton or Bledsoe, but the Lakers get into pretty dicey options pretty quick. I think Harden also is having a better year than LeBron. But it is nice to see LeBron have a monster year, I was a bit worried he'd lost his superstardom.
   409. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5915621)
I'm hoping there are a lot of voters whose uber stat choice is RPM. Also hoping that playing time devotees will say well LeBron did over more minutes than Giannis. Finally, hoping that no one cares what James Harden does anymore.
   410. PJ Martinez Posted: January 14, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5915661)
I'm hoping there are a lot of voters whose uber stat choice is RPM.
"Ladies and gentlemen, this year's first-team All NBA point guard, Dennis Schroder!"
   411. spivey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5915667)
Does anyone have or know an easy way to get pace and TS% numbers for the league trended over time?
   412. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 14, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5915670)
Does anyone have or know an easy way to get pace and TS% numbers for the league trended over time?

Sure, that's all on Basketball Reference. Here's a page that includes Pace by Year. It also includes eFG% and ORtg. Since TS% isn't on that page, you might have to look through each season's Summary page. The league average TS% appears in the Miscellaneous Stats table midway through.
   413. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5915672)
This chart is incredible (shot locations 2001-02 to 2019-20).
   414. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: January 14, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5915688)
[413] remind anyone else of a big schnoz and a pair of headphones?
   415. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 14, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5915732)
NJ in NY could really want him to win the MVP and understand that he does not deserve it more tha Giannis jimmy butler.
FTFY
   416. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 14, 2020 at 04:27 PM (#5915739)
trade machine: who says no?

POR: al horford
WAS: zhaire smith, jonah bolden, skal labissiere, trey burke
PHI: davis bertans, kent bazemore, ish smith, nassir little
   417. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 14, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5915748)
Given the long-term roster plans Portland has for Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic, I can't imagine they'd do that trade instead of trying to get Davis Betrans directly.
   418. tshipman Posted: January 14, 2020 at 09:42 PM (#5915826)
That fake trade is beneath Stiggles' usual artistry.

Why is Washington not getting draft picks for Bertans? Why are they taking Skal? Just bad.
   419. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5915832)
10 straight. And with Denver idle, Jazz take sole possession of 2nd place for at least a day.

Next game is @ NOP, and it's expected to be Zion's regular season debut. Good stuff.
   420. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:21 PM (#5915837)
If Conley can get healthy and even close to what he was last year, they may be a legit contender.

I'm a little annoyed that Ingles *again* tied his career high for points and didn't beat it. I care more about milestones for him than he does.
   421. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:47 PM (#5915842)
#420 - Heh. Yeah, that got me too. I think he's had his career high of 27 pts at least 4 times.
   422. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:54 PM (#5915844)
Upon further review, it looks like Ingles has reached his high of 27 pts 6 times (including playoffs)!
   423. tshipman Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5915845)
If Conley can get healthy and even close to what he was last year, they may be a legit contender.


Utah's further away from contention than they were at the beginning of the year. What's their solution to LeBron, Kawhi or Giannis?
   424. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:02 PM (#5915846)
What's anyone's solution to Giannis, LeBron, or Kawhi? To outscore the other guys on the court. Jazz are 2-1 against Kawhi and 1-1 against Giannis (and their loss was by 4 pts in Milwaukee and without Gobert).

They've admittedly looked terrible in both games vs the Lakers. My hope is that the current seedings hold and the Clippers take out the Lakers in the 2nd round.
   425. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:07 PM (#5915847)
Jazz also have the best 3-pt % in the league, so they have a better shot at 'variancing' their way to some wins than anybody.

And of course if they ran into Giannis in the postseason, that would mean they got to the Finals in the first place.
   426. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:29 PM (#5915850)
Ingles is on the most recent Lowe Post, in which he tells of Quinn Snyder offering to put him back in a game to get the last rebound or two he needs to get his first triple double, but the game was in hand so Ingles turned him down, still hasn't gotten one, and clearly did not care at all about that fact. He seems to not care about his stats at all, to an amusing degree.
   427. tshipman Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:52 PM (#5915852)
Was Denver a "contender" last year?
   428. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 12:03 AM (#5915853)
No, but I think the Jazz have the potential to be more dangerous than Denver was last year (1st in 3-pt % vs 17th, for example). Also, the original comment was based on the hypothetical that Conley returns to close to what he was last year, which obviously hasn't happened yet (and isn't likely).
   429. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 15, 2020 at 01:32 AM (#5915864)
That fake trade is beneath Stiggles' usual artistry.

Why is Washington not getting draft picks for Bertans? Why are they taking Skal? Just bad.
A: because fake draft picks aren't included the fake trade machine.
B: why not? they have plenty of roster spots and there's more than enough playing time to go around.
   430. tshipman Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:22 AM (#5915870)
Last year Devner had an SRS of 4.19, this year Utah has one of 3.26.

Also, the original comment was based on the hypothetical that Conley returns to close to what he was last year, which obviously hasn't happened yet (and isn't likely).


And if I learn to sign, dance and act in the next six months, I'll be starring on Broadway by the fall.
   431. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 15, 2020 at 04:35 AM (#5915872)
[413] remind anyone else of a big schnoz and a pair of headphones?

Looks like 19-20 is giving 01-02 the middle finger.
   432. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 09:28 AM (#5915892)
Tship - I thought I demonstrated during our last discussion about SRS that it's less predictive of championship contention than actual record is. Guess not.

Do you think that Dallas is more of a contender than the Clippers? SRS says they are.

I don't think the Jazz are a true contender either, but it's not cuz they have a mediocre SRS. They had a better SRS each of the last 3 seasons, but they're closer to contention now than they were in any of those years. SRS is fun, but ultimately meaningless.
   433. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 15, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5915896)
426: there was also a five minute mini-pod today, where lowe had jingles back to tell a story about injuring the team owner during a play.
   434. spivey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 09:46 AM (#5915903)
Tship - I thought I demonstrated during our last discussion about SRS that it's less predictive of championship contention than actual record is. Guess not.


As someone not involved in this conversation, you definitely did not demonstrate that with any sort of definitive statistical rigor.
   435. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 11:02 AM (#5915958)
Spivey - K, but no one has demonstrated that SRS DOES have any particular relevance with any sort of definitive statistical rigor, either. When we were running down the list of champions, they tended to be closer to the top of the league by record than they were by SRS. By SRS they were pretty much all over the map. You can take that to mean we've been seeing more randomness in our champs than before if you want, but until someone convincingly proves otherwise, I think it's more likely that SRS just isn't a very telling statistic and it's probably not what we should be looking at to determine a teams quality to begin with.

Also tship, your analogy in #430 was...not good. Were you a Broadway caliber singer, dancer, and actor last year? Mike Conley really was a borderline All Star caliber PG as recently as last season. It's a lot more realistic to hope someone can regain their past form than it is to hope they can suddenly develop abilities they never had. Look at Ingles, for example. In the first half of the season he was just as awful as Conley. But now he's back to his old self and then some. In fact, he's arguably been playing the best ball of his career. I don't EXPECT Conley to return to Memphis form either, but I think it's too early to write him off as being toast. Your response was akin to if Tom had said, "If only Tony Bradley can start playing like Tim Duncan, the Jazz might have a real shot!"
   436. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 15, 2020 at 11:40 AM (#5915974)
I'm quite confident, based on his posting style, that tship dances and sings like an angel.
   437. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5915985)
#436 - Well, he's no Moses or Der-K on stage...

(I can only assume their greatness doesn't end at merely talking about basketball)
   438. jmurph Posted: January 15, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5916051)
When did "screen assists" become a thing (I don't believe they're actually a thing in real life, but I see the term used a fair amount)?
   439. spivey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5916053)
Spivey - K, but no one has demonstrated that SRS DOES have any particular relevance with any sort of definitive statistical rigor, either. When we were running down the list of champions, they tended to be closer to the top of the league by record than they were by SRS.

SRS is essentially margin of victory with some accounting for schedule difficulty. You are right, I do not know that anyone has posted a definitive, statistically backed study in the thread about how SRS outperforms W-L record in the NBA. It is possible it doesn't, in the playoffs. The NBA is a bit unique in that its playoffs are a bit of a different game from the regular season.

But in general, MOV is more predictive across most sports than W-L record. This is true of baseball, which is where Pythag comes from. It's true in football. And my experience is Vegas tends to, generally, across all sports, look pretty heavily at these underlying statistics to determine team quality as they're setting lines. Similarly, most computer predictive algorithms heavily lean towards using margin of victory (of course they are quite a bit more advanced/granular than that, but they are generally going to trend with that, that the margin of victory matters). I think even college basketball this is true.

So, that's correct that SRS is more predictive W-L record hasn't been specifically proven for the NBA here (it may have been elsewhere). But, my expectation is that SRS does do a better job of trending with playoff success than W-L, when you control for HCA. That may be off.
   440. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 15, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5916059)
And if I learn to sign, dance and act in the next six months, I'll be starring on Broadway by the fall.


Yes, this is definitely a good comparison to a player all of a sudden playing nearly as well as they did all of a season ago.

The Jazz also could very much use a big 3/4 to guard big wings, and I would also like an upgrade on Tony Bradley for the playoffs too. And I have no idea how they guard AD if they meet the Lakers in the playoffs. Both were a concern before the season too. Unfortunately, I think filling either need with the Jazz' assets is less likely than Conley playing like he did last year.

I'm not too worried about their season SRS when Jeff Green and Ed Davis torpedoed their bench, though.
   441. DCA Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5916142)
Taj Gibson might be a good target. This works.
   442. DCA Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5916148)
This also works. Jazz probably have to add a pick.
   443. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5916152)
My main skepticism about SRS is that so much of it depends upon garbage time, often against bad teams. A few games ago the Jazz were up by 33 in the 3rd against Charlotte, then they put in their 2nd - and eventually 3rd - stringers and coasted to a "mere" 17 pt win. Winning by 33 instead of 17 would have been better for their SRS, but I don't think it would have proven anything about their chances at beating good teams. In the postseason, when rotations are shortened, how bad your bench can beat up on other teams benches at the end of blowouts doesn't seem to matter anymore.

Take the Dallas example; they have the 2nd best SRS in the West, yet they're 6th in actual record, and I don't think I'd bet on them in a series vs any of the 5 teams above them. Their SRS is high because they're making it a habit to stomp scrub teams by 40. But does that really mean they're any more likely to beat good teams than if they took their foot off the gas a bit in blowouts and only won those games by 20? That seems iffy to me.
   444. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 15, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5916172)
443, and Jazz' SRS was much higher at least the last two seasons, yet I look at this roster and think this team is a much bigger threat against good teams than those Jazz teams were, since this team can actually score. Not that I think SRS is unimportant, just that in this case I don't think it's a huge concern.

Don't think I'd do 441 or 442. If Taj could shoot from 3 I might despite his bad season. 442 no way I'd do unless Wolves are the ones sending back picks since Covington's defense has fallen off. I'll take the greater risk and upside of keeping Conley. I would be happy to acquire Dieng to help shore up the bench, but I don't think the Jazz can make contracts work without trading someone significantly better than him.
   445. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 15, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5916173)
[443] Sure, but you can make the same sort of anecdotal case against W-L record. A couple late-game blown calls ir a star player gets put in early foul trouble and a team loses a close one it maybe shouldn't have. Neither one proves anything; that's what rigorous statistical analysis is for. In the meantime, if you're positing SRS is less meaningful than W/L, the onus is going to be on you, as that is not generally the case, as spivey points out.
   446. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 15, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5916179)

My main skepticism about SRS is that so much of it depends upon garbage time, often against bad teams. A few games ago the Jazz were up by 33 in the 3rd against Charlotte, then they put in their 2nd - and eventually 3rd - stringers and coasted to a "mere" 17 pt win. Winning by 33 instead of 17 would have been better for their SRS, but I don't think it would have proven anything about their chances at beating good teams. In the postseason, when rotations are shortened, how bad your bench can beat up on other teams benches at the end of blowouts doesn't seem to matter anymore.


Being able to blow out bad teams does seem relevant in football at least, based on the "Guts vs. Stomps" analysis of FO.
   447. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5916211)
#445 - Sort of. I mean, teams pad their W/L records against bad teams too, but at least all those wins count the same. It doesn't count twice if you win by 40 instead of 20. With SRS, it pretty much does. 3rd stringers who will never see the floor come playoff time don't affect your W/L record the way they do with your SRS. In that aforementioned Hornets game, Utah's SRS was lessened because guys like Rayjon Tucker (17 minutes) and Juwan Morgan (9 minutes) coughed up half the lead in the 4th. Hell, Emmanuel Mudiay got more minutes (28) than anyone other than Gobert. All that was bad for SRS, but completely irrelevant to how dominant the team was that night, or going forward.

As someone who watched most their games in each of the past few seasons, I'm pretty confident that the Jazz are better now than they were last year, or in 2017 or 2018, despite the lower SRS. Last year they got a lot of blowouts against losers, but they were also a near automatic loss in close games. This year they're winning the "clutch" games, which I think will be more relevant come playoff time than the ability to curb-stomp scrubs is/was.
   448. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5916222)
I understand and agree why SRS is telling in baseball and football (don't really watch the foosball, but there is no garbage time in baseball, and you don't pull your starting position players when you get a big lead); I just think the nature of basketball is different and the shortening of rotations and the increased dependence on top tier stars in the postseason renders the regular season SRS numbers pretty much moot. Teams just don't play the same way in the playoffs.
   449. Manny Coon Posted: January 15, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5916226)
Didn't people like Morey and Hollinger do work with Pythagorean wins like 100 years ago and have it become pretty widely accepted? SRS is more simplistic than that, but they are both based mostly on point differential. SRS does have the additional SOS component, but it seems minor.
   450. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5916229)
And now NOP is pushing back Zion's return for another week, so I guess he won't play against the Jazz tomorrow after all. Damn.
   451. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 15, 2020 at 07:25 PM (#5916277)
I am curious about people's thoughts on screen assists:
In Defense Of The ‘Screen Assist’ In The NBA

I am certain that there is a difference in quality of screeners and that that does affect a team's offense. I have no idea how much we should actually care about/value screen assists.
   452. Booey Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:02 PM (#5916294)
Any stat that puts Gobert at the top of the league is flawless and deeply meaningful. :-D

Seriously, I do think screening is important and players who are good at it help their team more than players who aren't, obviously, but keeping track of screen assists kinda seems like a "numbers for the sake of numbers" thing. Even though it spotlights my favorite player, it still doesn't seem particularly relevant to me. It was silly of Andy Bailey to refer to Gobert's 10 screen assists as part of a triple double in that article linked...but of course triple doubles are a dumb and mostly meaningless thing to keep track of to begin with, so...
   453. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:21 PM (#5916296)
And now NOP is pushing back Zion's return for another week, so I guess he won't play against the Jazz tomorrow after all. Damn.


It's a lost season for New Orleans, so there's really no reason for Zion to play at all this year unless he is judged to be absolutely 100.0% healthy. And even then, probably limit his minutes.
   454. tshipman Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5916301)
I am certain that there is a difference in quality of screeners and that that does affect a team's offense. I have no idea how much we should actually care about/value screen assists.


It's difficult to disentangle how much is skill, and how much is opportunity. I'd want to see what happens if someone like Gobert went to a team with a different coach and different ball handlers.

like, for a non-Jazz example, Draymond used to be on those lists towards the top, but is no longer. Is that because Draymond got worse at setting screens, or is it because Steph and Klay aren't the guys running off the screens?

I don't know, and that gives me pause as to the value of the stat.
   455. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:58 PM (#5916305)
Setting good screens is definitely a skill (and a dark art of fouling in ways that don't get called) but that is going to be an extremely scheme-dependent stat.
   456. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 15, 2020 at 09:32 PM (#5916309)
Sekou for Doncic - who says no?
   457. tshipman Posted: January 15, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5916315)
Let the record show that I was the first person to hype up Sekou in the NBA thread.
   458. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 15, 2020 at 09:45 PM (#5916316)
JEFF TEAGUE I just what
   459. jmurph Posted: January 16, 2020 at 09:16 AM (#5916384)
Sekou for Doncic - who says no?

Let the record show that I was the first person to hype up Sekou in the NBA thread.

The ####### Pistons shot 60% from the field last night. Just a deeply stupid performance. In addition to All NBA 1st Teamer Sekou Doumbouya lighting up the Celtics, a gentleman by the name of Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk had 21 on 6/9 shooting, 5/8 from three.

I'm reasonably sure based on last night's game that the Pistons are the best team in the league.
   460. spivey Posted: January 16, 2020 at 09:39 AM (#5916398)
Perhaps this goes without saying, but Philadelphia and the Clippers are looking like they may be making life very difficult for themselves in the playoffs if they don't put it together. I don't think there's a big difference between the 1 or 2 seed in each conference, but everything 3-6 looks like you'll have a tough to potentially very tough matchup every round.
   461. jmurph Posted: January 16, 2020 at 09:56 AM (#5916407)
Ahhhhh yes, the full Kyrie experience:
“I mean, it’s transparent. It’s out there. It’s glaring, in terms of the pieces that we need in order to be at that next level,” Irving said. “I’m going to continue to reiterate it. We’re going to do the best with the guys that we have in our locker room now, and we’ll worry about all the other stuff, in terms of moving pieces and everything else, as an organization down the line in the summer.”
   462. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 16, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5916445)
Clearly, the Nets need Andrew Wiggins.
   463. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 16, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5916446)
Ahhhhh yes, the full Kyrie experience


I like imagining what reaction these quotes would generate if Kyrie and Durant were on the Knicks.
   464. jmurph Posted: January 16, 2020 at 10:49 AM (#5916456)
It continues to baffle me why he thinks this sort of thing is helpful.
   465. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 16, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5916491)
I'm reasonably sure based on last night's game that the Pistons are the best team in the league.

The Bulls went 4-0 against the Pistons this year with a +14 avg margin of victory.
   466. jmurph Posted: January 16, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5916493)
Blocked.
   467. aberg Posted: January 16, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5916500)
Clearly, the Nets need Andrew Wiggins.


About a month into the season when Wiggins was hot, I texted my 3 biggest Wolves fan friends and said something like "we're still all ok with salary dumping Wiggins for expirings, right?" and ALL THREE of them said the Wolves should not dump him if given the chance. I was apalled. Stop getting fooled.
   468. jmurph Posted: January 16, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5916502)
Teague and Treveon Graham to Atlanta for Crabbe. (per Woj)
   469. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 16, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5916504)
Teague and Treveon Graham to Atlanta for Crabbe. (per Woj)

wat
   470. jmurph Posted: January 16, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5916509)
Best I can tell from twitter, the Wolves are opening up a roster spot? Precursor to some other move?
   471. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 16, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5916513)
It's seemingly a wash otherwise, although Crabbe can at least theoretically shoot from three. Probably better at making an adjectival post entry pass, too.
   472. KronicFatigue Posted: January 16, 2020 at 01:04 PM (#5916514)
Can someone please point me towards any good NCAA Basketball blogs, writers, websites, etc etc. Bonus points if there's a focus on the Big East.

Thanks!
   473. DCA Posted: January 16, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5916526)
What am I missing?

Teague is useful. Crabbe is garbage. They have approximately the same remaining contract. Graham is a generic minimum-contract scrub.
   474. aberg Posted: January 16, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5916569)
Can someone please point me towards any good NCAA Basketball blogs, writers, websites, etc etc. Bonus points if there's a focus on the Big East.


I have started listening to Jon Rothstein's podcast. He doesn't go into a ton of depth, but it's a good survey and some of the coach interviews are interesting. There was a good one with Leonard Hamilton recently.

Teague is useful. Crabbe is garbage. They have approximately the same remaining contract. Graham is a generic minimum-contract scrub.


I see two rationales.

1. Fit. Get a floor spacer for a team that shoots a lot of threes very badly. I don't think Teague was a net negative, but lost of Wolves fans did. Front office probably wants someone in that role who will play the way they want to play. They want fast. Teague is slow.

2. It looks like the first in a sequence of moves. They're not going to have only one PG on the roster. There have been rumors connecting them to a wide array of young PGs. I suspect there will be another deal before the deadline, but probably not a blockbuster.

Culver has been the lead ball-handler more often lately and has done it fairly well. His ideal role is still as a secondary playmaker, though. Kind of like Evan Turner before we gave up on the possibility of Turner learning to shoot. I always liked Teague's personality. He was a calming force in the Thibs storm. He is also a big wrestilng fan, which is fun. Bon voyage, Jeff.
   475. Rally Posted: January 16, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5916584)
On SRS, I don't know how it's calculated but I think it could be set up in a way to minimize the impact of garbage time blowouts. Just focus on pythag expected record based on the final score instead of margin of victory.

I believe the exponent to use in the NBA is around 14, so with that:

A team winning 101-100 has a .535 expected W%. Well, not really, it's 100%, but a team that outscores opponents by 1 point over 82 games should have a .535 winning %.

A team winning 110-100 is .792, or .292 above .500. So that has 8.4 times the impact of a 1 point win. Winning by 20 is 12.3 times as good as 1, but then you get into serious diminishing returns. Winning by 40 is only 14.1 times the impact of a 1 point win.

Do it that way and once you get beyond the margin of a safe lead, further blowing out your opponents would not mean much difference to your rating.
   476. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 16, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5916624)
Can someone please point me towards any good NCAA Basketball blogs, writers, websites, etc etc. Bonus points if there's a focus on the Big East.

Thanks!
thestepien focuses on the NBA draft, but the content (video, scouting reports, statistical analysis, player breakdowns) is exceptional and most of it includes deep dives on college players.
Teague and Treveon Graham to Atlanta for Crabbe. (per Woj)
i was expecting that sentence to end with "who says 'no'?"
On SRS, I don't know how it's calculated but I think it could be set up in a way to minimize the impact of garbage time blowouts. Just focus on pythag expected record based on the final score instead of margin of victory.

i don't see that as a bug, but rather, as a feature.

if a good team is capable of extending their lead in a blowout, that generally indicates they have strong depth players, which is important information to know. injuries (and suspensions) are part of the game, and deeper teams (hello raptors) are able to weather those losses more capably than shallower teams.

otoh, if a good team struggles to close out games against awful teams (hello sixers), that is a meaningful indication of a team with weaker depth. if that team loses one of their players to an injury (or suspension), it is likely that they are not as capable of overcoming that kind of loss.
   477. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 16, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5916644)
trade machine: who says no?

PHI: andre iguodala, evan turner, kyle anderson, jae crowder, alex len
ATL: al horford
MEM: tobias harris, vince carter, zhaire smith
   478. jmurph Posted: January 16, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5916647)
Copy/Paste Everyone but the Sixers click submit

EDIT: I mean seriously, how much money do you have the Sixers saving in that one, like $200 million?
   479. aberg Posted: January 16, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5916654)
trade machine: who says no?

PHI: andre iguodala, evan turner, kyle anderson, jae crowder, alex len
ATL: al horford
MEM: tobias harris, vince carter, zhaire smith


Somehow everybody.
   480. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 16, 2020 at 04:19 PM (#5916692)
EDIT: I mean seriously, how much money do you have the Sixers saving in that one, like $200 million?

let's see (according to bk-ref):


tharris/horford = 218MM guaranteed + 59MM prorated + 12MM non-guaranteed

turner/len = 22MM prorated

iguodala/crowder = 25MM prorated
kyle anderson = 20MM guaranteed + 9MM prorated

outgoing: 218MM guaranteed + 59MM prorated + 12MM non-guaranteed
incoming: 20MM guaranteed + 56MM prorated

net:
(198MM) guaranteed
+ (3MM) prorated
+ (12MM) non-guaranteed
   481. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 16, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5916697)
trade machine: who says no?

NOP: kyrie irving, jakarr sampson
BRK: j holiday, j holiday, a holiday
IND: (t)jj redick
   482. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 16, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5916705)
last one... (maybe)...

trade machine: who says no?


DAL: andre iguodala, jj redick, lonzo ball
NOP: tim hardaway
MEM: courtney lee, jahlil okafor
   483. aberg Posted: January 16, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5916712)
Who says no?

PHI: Covington
GS: Zhaire Smith, Josh Okogie, 2020 Philly 1st, 2021 top 10 protected Minnesota 1st, salary filler
MIN: Russell
   484. Tin Angel Posted: January 16, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5916734)
The Wolves are apparently going after D’Angelo Russell.
   485. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 16, 2020 at 06:42 PM (#5916739)
I really don’t want Russell on that deal on the Wolves.
   486. DCA Posted: January 16, 2020 at 06:50 PM (#5916740)
I get why the Wolves are after D'Angelo. I fail to see what they could offer to make it worthwhile.
   487. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 16, 2020 at 06:51 PM (#5916741)
Who says no?

PHI: Covington
GS: Zhaire Smith, Josh Okogie, 2020 Philly 1st, 2021 top 10 protected Minnesota 1st, salary filler
MIN: Russell
counteroffer:

PHI: Covington, wiggins
GS: Zhaire Smith, Josh Okogie, 2020 Philly 1st, 2021 top 10 protected Minnesota 1st, salary filler
MIN: Russell, tharris
   488. DCA Posted: January 16, 2020 at 06:54 PM (#5916744)
Besides, I think D-Lo to Philly makes more sense. Move Simmons to the Draymond role. Horford shipped out for salary matching.

PHI: Russell
ORL: Horford
GSW: Aaron Gordon, DJ Augustin, Philly picks
   489. DCA Posted: January 16, 2020 at 07:02 PM (#5916747)
I like the idea of Iggy to Dallas. How's this?

DAL: Iguodala
MIN: Hardaway, Solomon Hill
MEM: Wiggins
   490. Booey Posted: January 16, 2020 at 11:05 PM (#5916808)
Dammit. The streak ends in OT in New Orleans, with an epic dual between Ingram (career high 49) and Mitchell (career high tying 46).

That's the 3rd time Mitchell has hit his career high. Halfway to Ingles total of 6!
   491. tshipman Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:30 AM (#5916815)
sketchy ####### call on the last play of that NO/UTA game.
   492. Booey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 08:14 AM (#5916828)
#491 - Yeah that was weird. I mean technically it was probably the right call, as I suspect the L2M report will show - they do make that call at other times in the game - but to call it with 0.2 seconds left when the Jazz had no chance to get a shot on the play just looked bad. I'd have been pissed if a call like that had gone against my team too.

They made up for it in OT though when Gobert fouled out on a ridiculous call, which somehow held up under Snyder's coaches review. There's no point having coaches reviews if they can't overturn poor, game changing calls like that.
   493. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5916872)
Who says no?

PHI: Covington
GS: Zhaire Smith, Josh Okogie, 2020 Philly 1st, 2021 top 10 protected Minnesota 1st, salary filler
MIN: Russell

I think everyone agrees to that in principle. It might be somewhat of an overpay for Minny, but if it makes KAT happy then I think they'd pull the trigger. The issue then becomes the salary filler and whether it can actually work. This version makes some sense.

PHI: Covington, Alec Burks
GS: Zhaire, Okogie, Gorgui Dieng, Jonah Bolden, 2020 Philly 1st, 2021 top 10 protected Minnesota 1st
MIN: Russell, Willie Cauley-Stein, Mike Scott

The Warriors would get under the tax and net a huge trade exception after just barely fitting Dieng into the existing Iggy exception. Everyone else stays under the tax. The Wolves would not only get Russell but also add KAT's former teammate at Kentucky and a quasi-replacement for Covington. Burks might be useful to the Sixers as a shooter/scorer off the bench.
   494. tshipman Posted: January 17, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5916890)
Does Zhaire Smith have positive value at this point?

I keep seeing him be thrown in to deals, but it's not at all clear to me that anyone wants him.
   495. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5916937)
Does Zhaire Smith have positive value at this point?

I keep seeing him be thrown in to deals, but it's not at all clear to me that anyone wants him.
yes.

not much, but he's a decent lottery ticket for any team that has time to let him develop.


the sixers expected him to be matisse thybulle; come off the bench, be energetic, play good D, hit a few 3s. obviously that plan got derailed, but nearly dying tends to derail things, so....


also, this bullshit about "positive value" needs to die in a fire. even when the concept might be applicable, it's too narrow minded to be useful. what is cleveland capable of doing with their cap space, that they couldn't do after taking a flier on zhaire smith? there is literally nothing that zhaire smith prevents them from doing, so how in hell could he possibly have negative value?

now, if we can agree that it's not possible for zhaire smith to have negative value, then the only remaining outcomes are that he has no value, or that he has some amount of possible value.

now, in order for him to have zero value, he would have to, by definition, have positive value to offset the value of his contract...in which case, he has positive value.


so, again, "positive value" needs to die in a fire. it's vague; it's inconsistent; it's counterproductive. in fact, i suspect it makes you worse at evaluating relative value, especially when it's used to shut down any consideration of future growth.
   496. tshipman Posted: January 17, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5916946)
so, again, "positive value" needs to die in a fire. it's vague; it's inconsistent; it's counterproductive. in fact, i suspect it makes you worse at evaluating relative value, especially when it's used to shut down any consideration of future growth.


This is silly, Stiggles.

The Warriors are at the hard cap and have to carefully evaluate every 100k they spend. Someone who is overpaid is not someone they can take a flier on.

Zhaire Smith has been objectively terrible in the NBA and pretty mediocre even in the G-League. It certainly is in question whether he is worth his contract, and as a lottery pick, it's not insignificant.
   497. spivey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 01:32 PM (#5916952)
Young players are very difficult to answer the question "Does this player have value" just by looking at their stats. I was thinking about this with DiVincenzo. Coming into the year off a disappointing year as an older rookie, you could argue he had little to no value. Now, he does. Ingram I would have argued had pretty little value coming into this year coming off a serious medical issue and due to be paid. Now he does (though you can argue how much, since he's likely to get maxed which is probably fair market value).

Anyways, young players can put it together in a hurry. For this reason alone, I think Zhaire probably does, though I don't know that it is much.
   498. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 17, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5916959)
Does Zhaire Smith have positive value at this point?

That's a reasonable question. Like stiggles and spivey, I'm pretty sure the answer is yes, though it's probably along the lines of "we'd like him as a throw in" or how you'd value an early 2nd round pick in a typical upcoming draft. He was the #16 pick so he's not a major salary burden if he fails to pan out -- $3M this year and $3.2M next year. Any team acquiring him would likely be cutting salary this year in the process, with the Sixers trading for a more highly-paid veteran.

Here's a snippet of what Sam Vecenie wrote about Zhaire in his rookie scale rankings (Athletic subscription required):
Unfortunately for the Sixers, he hasn’t really proven that he’s nearly ready for rotational duty. He’s still good at finding easy baskets off of cuts, and he finishes really well in transition and at the rim [but] the shooting hasn’t come along yet. . . He’s gotten better as a ballhandler and driver, and can even be something of an occasional threat in ball-screen scenarios. But it’s still not quite at a NBA level yet. It’s all pretty much straight line actions, and he is heavily turnover prone when asked to create something on the fly.

Still, Smith is extremely young at just 20 years old, and is ostensibly in his first season of professional play. His athleticism is real, as is his defensive versatility. He’s great as a pressure on-ball defender, and really does a great job of using his strength to push guys around despite only being about 6-foot-4. His off-ball defense is still growing in terms of just knowing his rotations, but he has an innate sense of how to wreak havoc and make plays. . .

It’s not impossible he ends up being used as a trade chip this winter if the Sixers end up being presented with a potential deal for a player in the $8 to $10 million salary range. Really, the team’s only option for aggregating salaries up to that point is moving Smith and The Regional Manager Mike Scott. I don’t know that I would be all that worried about giving up Smith if I was the Sixers . . . And yet, I wouldn’t give up hope here, either. He has some real upside as a wing if the jump shot comes around, given his defensive acumen, athleticism, and work ethic.
   499. tshipman Posted: January 17, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5916969)
I'm pretty sure the answer is yes, though it's probably along the lines of "we'd like him as a throw in" or how you'd value an early 2nd round pick in a typical upcoming draft. He was the #16 pick so he's not a major salary burden if he fails to pan out -- $3M this year and $3.2M next year. Any team acquiring him would likely be cutting salary this year in the process, with the Sixers trading for a more highly-paid veteran.


This is pretty reasonable.

Young players are very difficult to answer the question "Does this player have value" just by looking at their stats. I was thinking about this with DiVincenzo. Coming into the year off a disappointing year as an older rookie, you could argue he had little to no value. Now, he does. Ingram I would have argued had pretty little value coming into this year coming off a serious medical issue and due to be paid. Now he does (though you can argue how much, since he's likely to get maxed which is probably fair market value).


I agree with this as well. I would say that young player value is very opaque, where there's a lot of information that we just don't have access to.

Is this guy a party guy or a hard worker?
What does he look like in practice?
Has his performance been impacted by medical stuff?
   500. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: January 17, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5916970)
It would be awesome if NBA twitter did not pay attention to ESPN. Smith saying how great it would be for Giannis to go to Golden State is classic clickbait people. Be better
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