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Monday, December 23, 2019

OT - NBA Thread 2020

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully none of the other ones posted a duplicate thread to this.

Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 23, 2019 at 04:40 PM | 1360 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off-topic

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   501. spivey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5916973)
FLIP!
   502. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5916988)

sketchy ####### call on the last play of that NO/UTA game.


The first replay I saw last night made it look like an obvious foul on Hayes, but just watched it again and wow, Rudy was grabbing just as much as Hayes there. Just awful. Andy Larsen gets into how awful the refs were last night, not just on that call. I already wasn't too upset on the ridiculous Rudy 6th foul because he probably got away with a foul to clinch the last game against the Pelicans, but especially so now since this game should never have gotten to OT.


It's difficult to disentangle how much is skill, and how much is opportunity. I'd want to see what happens if someone like Gobert went to a team with a different coach and different ball handlers.
like, for a non-Jazz example, Draymond used to be on those lists towards the top, but is no longer. Is that because Draymond got worse at setting screens, or is it because Steph and Klay aren't the guys running off the screens?

I don't know, and that gives me pause as to the value of the stat.


Yeah, and I know every stat can be scheme and/or quality of teammates dependent to an extent, but screen assists seems like it would be affected far more than most others. And Mike Prada tackles this pretty well here.
   503. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5917001)
Carmelo has been surprisingly playable for the Blazers, especially compared to the rest of their roster. By BPM, only Dame, Whiteside, and Labissiere are positive (McCollum is 0.0). 'Melo is -2.6, in the same neighborhood as Bazemore and Tolliver; Anfernee Simons, Hezonja, and Nassir Little have all been worse.
   504. Booey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5917003)
#502 - Yeah, that's pretty much my view on the ending to last nights game. The 6th foul on Gobert was bad (and probably a deliberate make up call) and it makes coaches challenges pointless if they can't overturn calls like that...but at the same time I didn't feel too mad because I have no problem admitting that New Orleans deserved to win that game. It never should have gone to overtime in the first place. Again, I doubt the L2M report will say the hold on Hayes was incorrect - they do make that call at other points in the game with some regularity - but at THAT point in the game, with virtually no time left on the clock, I absolutely think it was wrong to make that call. Holding is a call they probably could make on almost every play if they wanted to, so to make it at the buzzer when there wasn't even enough time for a final shot anyway was just ridiculous. If there were a few more seconds on the clock and Rudy was going for a lob or an offensive rebound and Hayes held him down to prevent it, then yeah, that would be different. But in this case it just looked like a bailout. They can't let ticky-tack #### like this with no relevance to the play determine the outcome of games.
   505. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:41 PM (#5917008)
I mean, ####, look at Markelle Fultz this year (about whom I was suuuuuper wrong). If that can happen, almost any young player with a $3M contract must have positive value.
   506. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5917012)
at THAT point in the game, with virtually no time left on the clock, I absolutely think it was wrong to make that call. Holding is a call they probably could make on almost every play if they wanted to, so to make it at the buzzer when there wasn't even enough time for a final shot anyway was just ridiculous.

I really don't have an opinion on this play; with no dog in the fight I haven't felt any compunction to Zapruder the replay to develop an opinion. But I truly hate this attitude about fouls. I want refs to call fouls as best they're able the same every time, no matter the game scenario or players involved. It drives me nuts how reticent NBA refs are to make a call on the last play of a game, even when a player gets hammered going to the rim. Borderline foul calls that impact games are always annoying, but I wish the time on the clock weren't considered an issue in the call. (YMMV, of course.)
   507. Booey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5917018)
#506 - Normally I agree with that mindset too - it drives me nuts when refs swallow their whistle on clear fouls at the end of games - but ticky-tack holding fouls at the buzzer shouldn't determine the outcome of games. It's debatable whether those should ever be called. I guess they have to sometimes to send a message that excessive pushing and holding under the basket isn't acceptable; you just shrug and live with those borderline judgment calls when they happen at any other point in the game, but to call it at the buzzer is just maddening (even as a Jazz fan I felt a bit dirty forcing OT on a call like that).
   508. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 05:47 PM (#5917045)
This is silly, Stiggles.

The Warriors are at the hard cap and have to carefully evaluate every 100k they spend. Someone who is overpaid is not someone they can take a flier on.

Zhaire Smith has been objectively terrible in the NBA and pretty mediocre even in the G-League. It certainly is in question whether he is worth his contract, and as a lottery pick, it's not insignificant.

a few things:

what you say here is more interesting, and more productive, than asking whether zhaire smith (or any other player, for that matter) has positive value. the "positive value" thing buries the interesting conversation behind a layer of unnecessary abstraction.


as to the actual points:
-- w/r/t GSW, they don't have anything lose right now. taking a flier on zhaire isn't going to hurt them. otoh, the upside for them is pretty huge. if they can make it work, he's an uber-athletic defensive menace, who is excellent at cutting to the rim, and crashing the offensive glass, which could be a deadly skillset for a team that spaces the floor as well as GSW.

-- getting under the luxury is very important for them, but they can easily work around that in any deal where they're also losing dangelo.

-- zhaire smith hasn't played enough minutes in the NBA for that to be a meaningful sample. and again, he's young, so even if they were representative of his current ability, it's determinative of his future potential.

-- in terms of the Gleague, i'm not sure how representative that is, because zhaire's skillset is better suited to playing a complementary role, and players like that rarely pile up flashy statistics in any context. i'd be more confident in him if he was blowing the doors off, but it's not conclusive proof that he's less than worthless.
   509. Booey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 06:09 PM (#5917055)
L2M report is out, and wow, I'm surprised they had the cajones to admit the holding call was bogus. They describe it as a lot of contact between all players and no single action stands out as dislodging or impeding an opponent. Sounds about right (and describes a lot of under the basket holding calls).

They also said there wasn't clear and conclusive evidence to overturn the 6th foul on Gobert. I disagree with that, but again, whatever. Game shouldn't have gone to OT to begin with.

Apparently they also missed 2 travels in the final minute of overtime, one on E'Twaun Moore with a minute left and one on Tony Bradley with 40 seconds left. Just a bad end for the officials altogether (though to their credit I didn't notice either of the travels, either).
   510. tshipman Posted: January 17, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5917082)
Apparently they also missed 2 travels in the final minute of overtime, one on E'Twaun Moore with a minute left and one on Tony Bradley with 40 seconds left. Just a bad end for the officials altogether (though to their credit I didn't notice either of the travels, either).


No one knows what a travel is in the NBA anymore.
   511. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 17, 2020 at 08:26 PM (#5917084)
It's nice to see Towns back in action.
   512. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: January 18, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5917238)
in the first five minutes of Bucks Nets we've seen Kyrie twice step in front of Giannis and fall down at the softest contact, which is also the Celtics main strategy for defending Giannis. I know a team that employs Ersan can't complain but I hate it so much.
   513. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: January 18, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5917245)
lol Giannis got upset because they did it again, so he flopped on the next possession and got the call going the other way. Drawing an offensive foul on Taurean Prince is somewhat less meaningful than drawing one on Giannis though.
   514. tshipman Posted: January 18, 2020 at 07:23 PM (#5917251)
Trade!

Adrian Wojnarowski

Verified account

@wojespn

Portland has traded Kent Bazemore and Anthony Tolliver and two second- round picks to Sacramento for Trevor Ariza, Wendell Gabriel and Caleb Swanigan, source tells ESPN.


Somehow a bad trade for both teams. I guess getting the seconds is good for Sacramento, but they're just going to blow the picks anyways.
   515. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 18, 2020 at 07:56 PM (#5917255)
I guess at this the story of Ariza changing teams once or twice a year is that teams want him because he's got a rep as a Veteran Leader and used to be a good 3-and-D player, and teams keep getting rid of him because once they have him they realize he's done?

Apparently Portland is saving about $12 million in luxury tax with this move, so that's basically the price they've sold two mid-seconds for.
   516. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: January 18, 2020 at 09:39 PM (#5917270)
Boston loses to Phoenix at home despite Marcus Smart hitting 11 threes. Two fairly unlikely events that are very improbable in conjunction.
   517. tshipman Posted: January 18, 2020 at 10:44 PM (#5917278)
You know, you can make a pretty reasonable case that Enes Kanter has been the Celtics' best player, or at least one of their best 2-3.
   518. Booey Posted: January 19, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5917368)
Woo hoo! Jazz extend Royce O'Neale for 4 years, 36 mil. Big fan of Royce. He's developed into a valuable 3 and D guy, and I was worried they might have to let him go when he hit restricted free agency this summer.
   519. PJ Martinez Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:11 PM (#5917470)
You know, you can make a pretty reasonable case that Enes Kanter has been the Celtics' best player, or at least one of their best 2-3.
The numbers are kind of wild; I'd love to read a deep dive on his performance so far from someone who both watches film and is better with stats than I am. (I say this as someone who was really not happy about the signing; he'd always seemed like an empty calories guy.)

That said, he's doing it in relatively limited minutes — 18.4 a game — so it depends on what you mean by "best." (He's certainly not one of the 2-3 most valuable players on the team.) And it's not like Stevens could just play him more, at least not in my opinion: his defensive limitations remain very real, and his offensive game is not always the right approach to bring either.

This may sound like Stevens fanboyism, but I suspect at least part of what's going on (other than the smallish sample size; the numbers will presumably come down at least somewhat over time) is that Stevens is using him precisely when the matchups are well suited for his contributions.
   520. tshipman Posted: January 19, 2020 at 10:38 PM (#5917491)
That said, he's doing it in relatively limited minutes — 18.4 a game — so it depends on what you mean by "best." (He's certainly not one of the 2-3 most valuable players on the team.) And it's not like Stevens could just play him more, at least not in my opinion: his defensive limitations remain very real, and his offensive game is not always the right approach to bring either.


Yeah, my comment is a bit of a stretch.

I do wonder if he's genuinely gotten better as a drop coverage big. His on/off numbers are quite good on defense, and he's actually a big problem for opponents on the offensive glass.
   521. Meatwad Posted: January 19, 2020 at 10:53 PM (#5917494)
Wrong thread
   522. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 20, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5917575)
Apparently the car accident Chandler Parsons was in the other day was serious. Per his lawyers, he "suffered multiple severe and permanent injuries including a traumatic brain injury, disc herniation and a torn labrum."
   523. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: January 20, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5917605)
BRK's combination of jersey and court is a crime against humanity.
   524. aberg Posted: January 20, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5917641)
That Chandler Parsons story sounds awful. The driver who hit him was not only drunk, but drinking while driving at 2 PM.

A couple Parsons notes. He will have made $127m over 9 seasons. Depending on how you measure it, he might have provided as much of 60-70% of his on-court value in the first three of those seasons, when he made under $3m total.

He was in this trade- Traded by the Houston Rockets with Brad Miller, Nikola Mirotić and a 2013 1st round draft pick (Andre Roberson was later selected) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Jonny Flynn, Donatas Motiejūnas and a 2012 2nd round draft pick (Will Barton was later selected). Somehow only Motiejunas ever did anything for the team that acquired him even though six of the seven had long-ish and pretty productive NBA careers. Flynn (the Syracuse alum) is obviously the exception.
   525. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 20, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5917653)
There's an entire article on ESPN about this, but it totally blows my mind that Kemba is 0-28 in his career in games against LeBron.

The Hornets did have one win against James' Cleveland Cavaliers when Kaminsky and Walker were teammates -- a 106-97 victory in Charlotte on Feb. 3, 2016. But Walker was sidelined by a sore left knee and replaced by Jeremy Lin, who scored 24 in the win.


I mean, that's just crazy.

Walker's 28 straight losses to James are the second-most without a win for one player against another, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Walker, 29, stands two losses behind Sherman Douglas, another former Big East point guard (Walker went to UConn, Douglas Syracuse). In his 12-year NBA career, Douglas faced off against Jordan 30 times (27 in the regular season, and three in the playoffs) without winning.
   526. tshipman Posted: January 20, 2020 at 06:06 PM (#5917662)
I really hope if the Celtics win, Kemba busts out the Vitas Gerulaitis, "No one beats Kemba 29 times in a row."
   527. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: January 20, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5917668)
Walker, Brown and Davis are all expected to play tonight.
   528. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: January 20, 2020 at 07:13 PM (#5917676)
I really hope if the Celtics win, Kemba busts out the Vitas Gerulaitis, "No one beats Kemba 29 times in a row."

That would be wonderful, but I don't have particularly high hopes for tonight being the night: even if the Lakers weren't so good right now, the Celtics just played 10 games in 16 days, have several key guys dealing with nagging injuries, and their starters have looked exhausted and disjointed without enough bench punch to ride it out. I'd love to be wrong of course, and their recent slide hasn't changed my overall opinion of the team (55-ish win quality, squarely in the "dark horse contender that could ride hot shooting or injury luck to the finals but probably won't" tier). Not that this perspective has stopped me from getting way too hyped up for the game, of course.
   529. Booey Posted: January 20, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5917684)
Harden with a 1/17 performance from downtown, helping the Rockets to their 4th straight loss.
   530. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 20, 2020 at 08:36 PM (#5917691)
Delonte West is not doing well (heartbreaking video)
   531. tshipman Posted: January 20, 2020 at 08:39 PM (#5917693)
Harden shooting a blistering 25% from 3 in January on 13 attempts per game. I wonder if the Rockets make a move or stand pat?
   532. Eric L Posted: January 20, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5917694)
You just sent a bat signal to Stiggles.
   533. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 20, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5917695)
This is 99% just being a troll, but shouldn't Rockets just wave the white flag and trade Harden this offseason? Maybe for every Knicks pick for the next fifteen years?
   534. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: January 20, 2020 at 09:40 PM (#5917696)
I am very interested in checking out the OKC comeback later; anyone watch that happen? Sometimes even Chris Paul deserves to be happy, at least when it’s this funny for neutral fans.
   535. DCA Posted: January 20, 2020 at 09:57 PM (#5917697)
I don't think Houston makes a significant deal this year. The could use an upgrade on Danuel House, but they don't have any salary they can send out without making the team worse. Eric Gordon is the only guy making actual money who would be a candidate to move, but he signed an extension int the fall and can't be traded until 2/29 which is after the trade deadline.

Otherwise Gordon to the Kings for Ariza would already have been consumated.

I think they just ride out the Harden/Westbrook/Adams/Tucker core for this season, at least, and tinker in the off-season when there might an opportunity to unload Gordon (or Westbrook). They're going to make the playoffs, and there's no dominant team that they can't beat.
   536. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: January 20, 2020 at 10:04 PM (#5917698)
For someone who doesn’t believe in reverse jinxes, I might have a knack for them.
   537. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: January 20, 2020 at 10:26 PM (#5917699)
Vogel is now 34-9 as the Lakers coach, but is 0-4 against Boston, LAC, and Milwaukee, which is sort of like getting the Duke job and having a great record, but losing all your games to NC State and UNC, and also losing a big non-conference game at Kentucky.
   538. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 20, 2020 at 10:50 PM (#5917702)
[537] Yeah but he's 3-0 against last year's Western Conference finalists!
   539. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 21, 2020 at 12:32 AM (#5917715)
   540. spivey Posted: January 21, 2020 at 08:43 AM (#5917727)
Boston really poured it on the Lakers last night. They didn't turn off the intensity until the final whistle.

As for the Lakers, I still feel like they need a better tertiary playmaker. What value does Kuzma have in a trade, though? He scores, but it's pretty average efficiency. Doesn't rebound or defend. I bet there is a team or two that values him a bit, and I'd be trying to find them.
   541. jmurph Posted: January 21, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5917750)
If you guys want to listen to old men yell at clouds I recommend the latest Windhorst podcast with Arnovitz and Nick Friedell. Arnovitz (especially) and Friedell just rant on and on about how terrible regular season games are and how no one cares and obviously there needs to be way fewer games (the kickoff of the discussion was the league backing away from the schedule change proposals). It was... unpleasant. Windhorst was the voice of reason.
   542. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 21, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5917765)
I just looked at the standings and was surprised to see Miami in 2nd place, given my impression that they've been losing to a bunch of bad teams lately. So I checked their recent record and it's completely bizarre. Miami's last 6 losses have all been to sub-.500 teams. On the flip side, they've won 8 straight against teams over .500 (@DAL, @PHI, UTA, IND, PHI, TOR, @IND, @OKC). I doubt this has any significance, just thought it was interesting.
   543. jmurph Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5917776)
Zach Kram @zachkram
Stat of the Day #92!

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the first player in NBA history to eclipse 10k points, 4k rebounds, and 2k assists through his age-25 season.

(Coming closest were Garnett, who was just 6 points short; LeBron, 139 rebounds short; and McGrady, 401 rebounds short.)
   544. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5917794)
(Coming closest were Garnett, who was just 6 points short; LeBron, 139 rebounds short; and McGrady, 401 rebounds short.)

This gets to a thing that was discussed on Ben Taylor's "Thinking Basketball" comparing the careers of Duncan and Garnett -- which is, what would KG be in today's NBA? A better Giannis, was one theory, which is just bananas.
   545. spivey Posted: January 21, 2020 at 12:01 PM (#5917799)
Garnett I don't think had the speed or strength of Giannis. Giannis is a generational athlete. Garnett had more skills though and I think was tougher. I feel like Garnett's game would be pretty similar to today, but he'd probably be a pretty solid 3 point shooter too. I think he'd be a defensive monster in the smallball NBA, able to dominate the boards and protect the rim.

Duncan I'm less sure about, though he hung around so long after he lost his athleticism it can be easy to forget he was a pretty solid athlete, and well above average in terms of dribbling and passing for his size. However, I think Robinson would have been awesome in this era. He had a better shot than Duncan, with more arc and I'm confident he could have stretched it to 3 point range, and he would have been a one man wrecking crew on defense. Hakeem too.

A lot of me would love to see Shaq and Moses in this era too. I think they were just such bullies that they'd force teams to react.
   546. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 21, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5917810)
The ultimate conclusion was that Garnett and Duncan were pretty damn close in value, but that Garnett's game could work in more environments. That seemed pretty reasonable to me.
   547. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: January 21, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5917818)
Duncan I'm less sure about, though he hung around so long after he lost his athleticism it can be easy to forget he was a pretty solid athlete

Think I've told this story before, but my first memory of having my basketball brain broken was courtesy of Tim Duncan locking down Charlie Ward in the Spring of '98. Now, I know what you're saying, it's Charlie Ward. However, to that point, the idea of a 7 footer being able to step out on the perimeter and harass a guard was a concept that 11-year-old me had never even come close to contemplating, so this was world altering stuff. All that to say, young Timmy was a very good athlete.
   548. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 21, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5917829)
The thing that I think sometimes gets overlooked about both KG and Duncan was just how damn smart they were, especially on defense. Combine that level of basketball IQ and their obvious physical gifts and it's really hard for me to imagine that they wouldn't be incredibly valuable in any era. Sure, they might end up shooting a few more 3s in this era and the defense might involve more covering perimeter players but I actually don't think this is a super interesting counterfactual (and come on, they haven't been buried for that long).
   549. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 21, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5917831)
I feel like Garnett's game would be pretty similar to today, but he'd probably be a pretty solid 3 point shooter too.

This may well be the reasonable take, but the obvious counterargument is the question of how well Garnett would have done if he'd gotten a couple years as lead ballhandler like Giannis has had. If KG had learned how to run a good PnR as ballhandler, good lord.
   550. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: January 21, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5917841)
I feel that KG (a career 80% FT shooter with a very good long midrange game) would have had no trouble shooting the three.
   551. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 21, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5917866)
One of KG's bread and butter shots, at least late prime Celtics KG, was literally about 2 feet inside the three point arc. It was frustrating that he didn't/wouldn't adjust it to move it out just a bit more and turn it into a three. A young KG these days would absolutely have a three pointer as part of his arsenal.
   552. Manny Coon Posted: January 21, 2020 at 03:11 PM (#5917883)
I would guess that most of the big time skilled HoF bigs would shoot threes if they came up today (Olajuwan, Robinson, Ewing, Garnett, Duncan).

How Shaq would play in the modern setting is harder for me to figure out. He probably wouldn't have as many post ups run for him, but would likely be insane as a PnR finisher, with his FG% going through the roof. How much volume he could get out of that I don't know. Montrezl Harrell is scoring 24 per 36 as mostly just a PnR finisher though and Shaq would be better than that.
   553. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 21, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5917895)
Yeah I think the most interesting what-if questions are about old school bigs who couldn't really shoot, but made their living on around the basket defense, crashing the boards, and overpowering people on offense, all of which are less important in today's NBA (stiggles calls for someone to go super big notwithstanding).

For lead guards and wings the answer is generally pretty simple, guys like Jordan, Drexler, even someone like Alex English who never shot threes would very obviously just have range out to the three point line today (English was 83 percent for his career from the stripe, for one data point). For more mobile/finesse guys like Garnett it's also pretty clear.

But the true bigs like a Shaq or a Russell or even a Kareem, it's less clear. And then another category is guys like Barkley or Kemp who I'd categorize as "athletic wrecking balls" -- would Kemp just look like Harrell or is there something else? Would a contemporary Barkley have become decent at 3s like LeBron or Giannis? Zion may give us some insight here.

Question: who is the best historical analogue to Ben Simmons?
   554. jmurph Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5917910)
I think my simplistic take is that if Shaq, and to a lesser extent Duncan and Garnett, are at their peaks in 2012-13 (the first STEPH season), the league just doesn't evolve in the same way that it did.
   555. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5917914)
Here's another era question: if Boban Marjanovic had played in the 80s, what would his career have looked like?
   556. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5917949)
Question: who is the best historical analogue to Ben Simmons?
pippen. magic. lamar odom. grant hill.
Here's another era question: if Boban Marjanovic had played in the 80s, what would his career have looked like?
barbaro.
I think my simplistic take is that if Shaq, and to a lesser extent Duncan and Garnett, are at their peaks in 2012-13 (the first STEPH season), the league just doesn't evolve in the same way that it did.
that might be true for shaq because he was such a force of nature in his prime, but i think garnett and duncan would just have been pulled into the arms race.

Garnett I don't think had the speed or strength of Giannis. Giannis is a generational athlete. Garnett had more skills though and I think was tougher. I feel like Garnett's game would be pretty similar to today, but he'd probably be a pretty solid 3 point shooter too. I think he'd be a defensive monster in the smallball NBA, able to dominate the boards and protect the rim.
only if you were a rookie.
   557. aberg Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:15 PM (#5917950)
Question: who is the best historical analogue to Ben Simmons?


Connie Hawkins is the best I can come up with. He's pretty distinctive.

Here's another era question: if Boban Marjanovic had played in the 80s, what would his career have looked like?


He was never going to play more than ~20 mpg with his body type, but he probably would've been more of a staple than a novelty act at the time. On the other hand, there would be more guys who could at least pretend to compete with his size.

But the true bigs like a Shaq or a Russell or even a Kareem, it's less clear. And then another category is guys like Barkley or Kemp who I'd categorize as "athletic wrecking balls" -- would Kemp just look like Harrell or is there something else? Would a contemporary Barkley have become decent at 3s like LeBron or Giannis? Zion may give us some insight here.


I think the overriding point is that teams have realized that they should increase the usage rate for their best offensive players. Maybe Barkley wouldn't have run PNRs, but I think he would've shot more.

I feel that KG (a career 80% FT shooter with a very good long midrange game) would have had no trouble shooting the three.


Probably. BUT, the defining characteristic of KG's early career was that he wanted to play his way (mid-range face-up game) rather than the way the conventional wisdom said he should play (back to basket in the post). Perhaps that same intransigence surfaces if a coach tried to get him to take four 3's per game the way it has for someone like Aldridge.
   558. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:27 AM (#5918153)
Think I've told this story before, but my first memory of having my basketball brain broken was courtesy of Tim Duncan locking down Charlie Ward in the Spring of '98.
This reminds me of the 1997 ACC Tournament final between NC State and UNC. State had made a run from the play in game to the final by playing smallball (three guards, no one over 6-6). In the final Dean Smith had his center Serge Zwikker (7-3, 273) guard State's Justin Gainey (6-0, 174). Zwikker was a prime example of a certain sort of college big: a few skills, really really tall, minimal athleticism. It was a mind ####, but it worked. This was the Vince Carter/Antawn Jamison model of UNC, so of course they were vastly more talented than NCSU, and State rode their starters hard -- Gainey played all 160 minutes of the tournament. But it also showed that playing smallball doesn't work so well against a team that's thought about it a little bit if your primary ballhandler shoots 27.5% from the college 3.
   559. Manny Coon Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:04 AM (#5918239)
Charlie Ward had a bunch of seasons where he attempted more 3's than 2's (5 of his last 6 seasons); that must have been pretty uncommon for a point guard 20 years ago. Derek Fisher had one season like that early in his career but didn't do it again until his last season in 13-14 and he was less of playmaker than Ward. Ward's 02-03, is particularly modern looking, 6.6 3pa, 3.6 2pa per 36, while still maintaining a good assist rate.
   560. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5918278)
Funny enough, on the latest Lowe Post, Danny Green mentions that the play the Spurs were killing the Heat with in the '13 Finals was named after Charlie Ward.
   561. aberg Posted: January 22, 2020 at 12:04 PM (#5918286)
Funny enough, on the latest Lowe Post, Danny Green mentions that the play the Spurs were killing the Heat with in the '13 Finals was named after Charlie Ward.


To go another step deeper, Charlie Ward's backup on the FSU football team during his Heisman year was... John Stark.
   562. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5918510)
76ers hit 7 of 14 threes on the way to 35 points in the first quarter in Toronto, and then scored 95 total on the night and lost by 12. (they finished 18 of 46 from 3, good for 39%).
   563. puck Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:47 PM (#5918558)
Zion comes alive in the 4th quarter!
   564. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:48 PM (#5918559)
Zion just went apeshit. Four threes and two twos in a three minute stretch of the fourth. Stroke from distance looked great.
   565. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:49 PM (#5918561)
That was STARTLING
   566. PJ Martinez Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:53 PM (#5918563)
Took Zion 86 seconds to double Ben Simmons in career threes.
   567. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:49 AM (#5918570)
That was STARTLING

I was taken aback by the play where he got blocked but then got to the blocked ball twice as fast as the defenders. Holy smokes. If that three point shot holds up he's going to be unstoppable.
   568. puck Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:15 AM (#5918574)
I was taken aback by the play where he got blocked but then got to the blocked ball twice as fast as the defenders. Holy smokes. If that three point shot holds up he's going to be unstoppable.


That's one of his signature things. He drives and misses/gets blocked, but he's so quick going up for the follow.

He also had good hands, like the play where he's overeager and fumbles the pass but is able to control it in the air and put it in.
   569. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:23 AM (#5918575)
Williamson has 22 points in 18 minutes; he was 8/11 from the floor.
   570. spivey Posted: January 23, 2020 at 08:55 AM (#5918597)
I love Zion and I'm happy he's playing this year. That 8th seed is very much up for grabs, and when you look at their roster - Jrue, Ingram, Zion. They should be the best team. It's not out of the realm of possibility they could be a tough matchup in the first round for the Lakers either, if Zion is just an all-star level player today (which I think he is, or will be with half a season of NBA experience). That's my hot take!
   571. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: January 23, 2020 at 09:31 AM (#5918608)
[569] Magic?
   572. . . . . . . Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:02 AM (#5918619)
Obviously he looked fantastic, and actually looked remarkably in shape on his top half for someone who has been on ice for half a season, but ####### his ass just keeps getting bigger and bigger. By the time the man is 25 he's going to have small moons orbiting his hips.
   573. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:15 AM (#5918625)
I, too, am going to be the ###hole and point out that he looks like he needs to drop like 40+ pounds.

But man, that was fun to watch. I'm with spivey, if he can play consistent minutes they have a strong chance to make a run at a playoff spot.
   574. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:21 AM (#5918627)
As someone who has a body type similar to Zion's (but without the explosive leaping ability)...I take offense at the amount of focus on Zion's weight. I think the basketball viewing public just is not used to seeing a body built for football playing basketball. So, yes, he could/will shed some pounds as he gets back into shape, but the idea that he needs to or should lose a significant amount of weight has never made sense to me.
   575. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:28 AM (#5918632)
I'm just terrified of more injuries! You're probably right (and I am definitely, obviously, not some kind of sports medicine expert), I just worry with the way he plays that's a lot of stress on the legs.

But I would be more than happy to be wrong, because he's a lot of fun to watch and doesn't look like anyone else (Barkley and LJ are the frequent comparisons, but even those are off, I think).
   576. The Good Face Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5918633)
I, too, am going to be the ###hole and point out that he looks like he needs to drop like 40+ pounds.


I don't think he has 40lbs to lose unless he drops a significant amount of muscle. And all that muscle is what makes him Zion. He could probably drop 15 or so pretty easily if he leaned out, but he's just naturally a huge, thick guy.
   577. spivey Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5918634)
I thought Zion looked overweight. But, I didn't feel like that from my old man memory thinking back in college. I think he'll be able to shed some of the weight as he gets back into playing shape.

LeBron's managed to be very healthy at a high weight for much of his career. I think it can be done, and certainly hoping for it.
   578. . . . . . . Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:34 AM (#5918635)
Yeah I don't think he's out of shape, but its hard to imagine his full-adult age 27 body playing 80 games of pro basketball a year. He's going to have to artificially hold down his weight with an army of nutritionists. At age 19 you should look like this even if you're going to turn into a pork chop as grown man:

https://thesource.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1403796077000-shaquille-o-neal-panoramic.jpg
   579. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:40 AM (#5918637)
Clearly some of this just naturally comes from playing and getting older. Doncic took some shots about his weight last year and seems to have slimmed down quite a bit.
   580. nick swisher hygiene Posted: January 23, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5918682)
Zion is just preparing for future NBA changes where iso post play becomes important again....can you imagine getting backed down by that supersize Mark Aguirre ass??
   581. nick swisher hygiene Posted: January 23, 2020 at 11:56 AM (#5918683)
And yeah, watching that outburst live was pretty amazing. What stands out the most to me is just how quick he is off the ground, especially the second jump.
   582. aberg Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5918696)
I'm just terrified of more injuries! You're probably right (and I am definitely, obviously, not some kind of sports medicine expert), I just worry with the way he plays that's a lot of stress on the legs.


He plays unlike anyone I've seen before, so it's possible that he will have a body type that is also sui generis.
   583. . . . . . . Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5918699)
Weirdly, if you think about it, the current era seems less demanding of pure physical fitness and more demanding of athleticism and coordination. Plenty of softish bodies in the league right now but fewer bad athletes.
   584. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5918705)
They said he's listed at 285, which is the 3rd heaviest in the NBA right now. Yeah, I worry a little about weight induced injuries, but not nearly as much as I worry about Ja getting broken in half throwing his body around.
   585. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5918708)
Warning, twitter links.

Jim Boylen is an idiot, part 1.
Jim Boylen is an idiot, part 2.
Jim Boylen is an idiot, part 3:
K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop
Jim Boylen just called a timeout with the Bulls up 7 and 5.4 seconds left. Ryan Saunders looked over in seeming disbelief.

Looked like Boylen didn't like how nobody challenged Towns dunk.

   586. aberg Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5918709)
They said he's listed at 285, which is the 3rd heaviest in the NBA right now. Yeah, I worry a little about weight induced injuries, but not nearly as much as I worry about Ja getting broken in half throwing his body around.


Yeah, the way he plays reminds me of Byron Buxton in CF. It's beautiful to watch but it's hard to imagine that any human body can withstand it.
   587. Rally Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5918712)
At age 19 you should look like this even if you're going to turn into a pork chop as grown man:


Usually, but there are exceptions. Barkley topped 300 in college, but as a middle aged man certainly appears in better shape than Shaq. A few years ago they were doing some kind of contest with the guys on that show and Barkley out-benched Shaq.
   588. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5918714)
which is the 3rd heaviest in the NBA right now.

BBRef tells me Joel Embiid weighs 250 pounds. That can't possibly be true, can it?
   589. Rally Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5918715)
When it comes to the NBA legends, I wish youtube was around years earlier so there would be some record of old Wilt dominating the LA area rec leagues. Now all we have is stories about it. Wilt was certainly in phenomenal shape for his age, by appearances far better in his late 50s than mid 40's Shaq.

But he still left us at only 63.
   590. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5918716)
Yeah, the NBA's listed weights are more of a joke to me than the player heights ever were. I believe those only represent whatever the guy weighed during predraft camp.
   591. The Mighty Quintana Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5918722)
TIL that Chicago has had two head coaches named Jim Boyle(a)n in the past 12 years. I thought they were the same guy. Both were well under .500...
   592. aberg Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5918725)
in better shape than Shaq


The lowest of low bars to clear.

Reminds me of this:

"I've read that same formula, but as an athlete, I'm classified as phenomenal," O'Neal told The AP. "You can look it up."
   593. reech Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5918727)
The commentary by Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy last nite about Zion was amazing-
   594. Hot Wheeling American Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5918734)
@david_j_roth
I'm on the record with Mark Jackson being an ulcerous disaster, but ESPN needs to split him and Jeff Van Gundy up if either one is to be saved. They have a toxic Statler and Waldorf dynamic and it ##### the vibe of every game they do.
   595. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5918738)
I know he's the one commissioner everyone loves, but Silver probably has to be the guy to step in. I don't think G##dell would put up with this in the NFL.
   596. The Good Face Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5918740)
Weirdly, if you think about it, the current era seems less demanding of pure physical fitness and more demanding of athleticism and coordination. Plenty of softish bodies in the league right now but fewer bad athletes.


It's harder and harder to stick in the league if you can't shoot 3s. If you're a young, athletic NBA player (or prospect), you're going to see a much bigger ROI from working on your 3 ball as opposed to building a superhero physique in the weight room.
   597. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5918743)
The commentary by Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy last nite about Zion was amazing-


What were they saying? I watched the first quarter, and they had some comments about his body and looking rusty, but JVG in particular was mainly raving about his explosiveness.
   598. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5918749)
Jackson, for one, was saying that Morant should've gone first overall because look how he's playing and Zion hasn't done anything yet.

Roth is correct, imo, and I don't dislike JVG as an announcer.
   599. Rally Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5918756)
If you're a young, athletic NBA player (or prospect), you're going to see a much bigger ROI from working on your 3 ball as opposed to building a superhero physique in the weight room.


I'm sure they have optimized the best way to train in the NBA, but from my experience shooting and lifting were just not compatible. If I lifted first then went to the basketball court, I could not shoot at all. Complete disruption of the muscle memory.
   600. spivey Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:21 PM (#5918761)
I watch most of the NBA games I watch on mute. I don't particular like most local announcers, so do that for the Bucks game. And most primetime games seem like they tend to have Reggie Miller, Marv Albert, or SVG/Mark Jackson. I'd rather watch on mute.

I think that's a problem for the NBA. I don't know how big of a problem it is, but I think it is one. This isn't an uncommon opinion among people who are pretty into basketball.
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