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Friday, November 01, 2019

OT - November* 2019 College Football thread

* As is tradition, the November thread runs through Championship Week before giving way to the Bowl Spectacular.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 01, 2019 at 08:00 AM | 589 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: college football, off-topic

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   501. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 30, 2019 at 11:26 PM (#5904659)
If Georgia beats LSU, they're three and four, guaranteed.

Just to drive home this point, the committee is traditionally obsessed with top-25 wins, and this is how the candidates would stack up, assuming wins by Ohio State and Clemson:

LSU          Florida, Auburn, Alabama
Georgia      Notre Dame, Florida, Auburn, LSU
Utah         Oregon
Oklahoma     Baylor, Baylor
Baylor       Oklahoma
   502. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 01, 2019 at 12:15 AM (#5904662)
Arizona looks all out of sorts. Tate with two picks, both on plays where he and the receiver weren't on the same page.

Speaking of Tate, what a waste of a career. I thought he was going to be a tremendous dual-threat QB.
   503. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 01, 2019 at 12:25 AM (#5904666)
And a third pick.
   504. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 01, 2019 at 12:57 AM (#5904668)
Schiano back to Rutgers.

Seems like they needed each other.
   505. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 01, 2019 at 01:21 AM (#5904671)
Territorial Cup stays in Tempe.

As it should.

Eno Benjamin was unstoppable in the second half.
   506. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 01, 2019 at 01:28 PM (#5904691)
538 thinks that LSU has only a 17% chance of making the playoffs with a loss, which is an interesting data point.
   507. DCA Posted: December 01, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5904694)
It's not just that. Assuming the favorites all advantage (OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Utah), 538 projects:

OSU, Clemson, Georgia all in >99% (duh).

For the fourth spot, Oklahoma 69%, Utah 25%, LSU 7%. If Baylor beats Oklahoma, the fourth spot goes to Utah 68%, Baylor 18%, LSU 13%. In either scenario, all three teams competing for the fourth spot would be 12-1. I think this is crazy, and agree with 497 that Georgia and LSU are 3/4. Compelling first round match-ups too.

OSU/LSU - the Joe Burrow revenge bowl
Clemson/Georgia - the South Carolina revenge bowl (Dabo's been throwing shade on Georgia all season)

I can't find a combination of results that 538 would give >50% odds that a 12-1 LSU gets in. Pretty sure it would take OSU, Clemson, and at least one of Oklahoma/Utah losing, but they don't have the sample size for that unlikely combo.
   508. CFBF's Overflowing Pathos Posted: December 01, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5904711)
BC fires Steve Addazio.

In other Black Sunday news, Feleipe Franks announced he's leaving Florida for his final year.
   509. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 02, 2019 at 09:36 PM (#5905072)
Hey, remember three years ago when it looked like Washington was riding a rocket to the moon?
   510. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 03, 2019 at 07:11 PM (#5905402)
 1 Ohio State                 Wisconsin
 2 LSU                        Georgia
 3 Clemson                    Virginia
 4 Georgia                    LSU
 5 Utah                       Oregon
 6 Oklahoma                   Baylor
 7 Baylor                     Oklahoma
 8 Wisconsin                  Ohio State
 9 Florida
10 Penn State
11 Auburn
12 Alabama
13 Oregon                     Utah
14 Michigan
15 Notre Dame
16 Iowa
17 Memphis                    Cincinnati
18 Minnesota
19 Boise State                Hawaii
20 Cincinnati                 @ Memphis
21 Appalachian State          UL-Lafayette
22 USC
23 Virginia                   Clemson
24 Navy                                        Army
25 Oklahoma State
   511. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 03, 2019 at 07:22 PM (#5905403)
People are acting way too impressed with Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State minus Sanders.
   512. Red Voodooin Posted: December 03, 2019 at 08:47 PM (#5905416)
Wow, the G5 teams are really bunched tightly. If Cincinnati enacts revenge on Memphis this weekend and Boise State takes care of Hawaii again, it's going to be really interesting to see who emerges from that group to take the Cotton Bowl spot, with Appalachian State right behind them (if Memphis and BSU lose, would they somehow take the spot?). And then there's Navy. What the hell do they do there? Won't the final rankings come out before the Army-Navy game?
   513. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 03, 2019 at 10:47 PM (#5905427)
Navy won't be a conference champion so can't get the G5 bid, but when that looked like it was on the table in 2015*, it was said the final vote would be pushed back a week if the Army-Navy game would have an impact on the New Year's Six lineup.


*Navy was atop the G5 heap deep in November, and there was a scenario where it could've won the AAC, then lost to Army and fallen behind a MAC champion Toledo. Instead, Navy lost to Houston and Toledo lost to NIU to miss their championship games, making the point moot.
   514. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:51 PM (#5906452)
Oregon doing its part to restore balance to the universe, kicking the P12 out of the title chase.
   515. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:46 AM (#5906478)
It would have been kind of cool to see Utah in the playoffs, but man, when you punt on 4th and 5 from your opponents' 40 down 8 with 10 minutes to play, I have no sympathy for whatever happens next. That is just an awful, awful punt.
   516. Howie Menckel Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5906517)
what does it take to get Alabama into the playoff?*

* - for amusement purposes only
   517. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5906525)
what does it take to get Alabama into the playoff?*


It's probably not possible, but it would entail LSU and Clemson getting destroyed while losing several key players to injury. That would mean Georgia, OSU, and the winner of OU/Baylor are in, giving the committee the discretion to pick a non-conference champ. Even then, it still would probably be Oregon.
   518. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:45 AM (#5906528)
Actually, LSU doesn't have to suffer that fate. Just beat Georgia handily to drive a stake in them. But Clemson has to be eliminated.
   519. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:47 AM (#5906529)
As things stand, Alabama needs help to get in the New Year's Six.
   520. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:50 AM (#5906530)
Looking at the playoff rankings, Alabama is currently 12th, and Oregon at 13th will definitely pass them. Utah at 5th may not drop past them. Several teams who's season is over are also ahead of Alabama, UF, Penn St, and even 3 loss Auburn. So no, I don't think it's possible, outside of several teams being wiped out in bizarre gardening accidents.
   521. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5906533)
As things stand, Alabama needs help to get in the New Year's Six.


Yes. That's probably not possible either.
   522. Mike A Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:04 PM (#5906537)
So, it looks like Memphis's Mike Norvell with be the next FSU coach.

Whereas Taggart was considered more of a recruiter, Norvell is regarded as more of a coach. And he's pretty highly regarded on that end (particularly offensively), with his assistants often snatched up by bigger programs.

On the flip side, Norvell was probably FSU's 4th choice (Stoops, Campbell, Franklin) and he doesn't have top conference head coaching experience. I don't think it's a bad hire, but it's difficult to guess on how it will work out. I'd say the mood in Tallahassee is cautious optimism.
   523. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5906538)
Of the 12 slots, the Power 5 conference championship participants will soak up 10 of them. Memphis or Cincinnati gets the 11th. And UF and Penn State are both ahead of Alabama in the playoff rankings.
   524. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 12:20 PM (#5906541)
Baylor tackling picking up right where it left off.
   525. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:27 PM (#5906565)
Thankfully for the Bears the Jalen Hurts Turnover Machine is also back up and running.
   526. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5906567)
OK, here's how to get AL into a new year's six:

Virginia destroys Clemson while Clemson also loses several key players to season ending injuries. Georgia beats LSU in overtime. Utah falls behind Alabama in the final playoff rankings. So the games would be:

Playoff - OSU, LSU, GA, OU/Baylor

Rose - Wisconsin Oregon
Sugar - OU/Baylor Florida
Orange - Virginia Alabama
Cotton - Memphis/Cin Penn St.

This would also require the committee to pick Alabama ahead of auburn, which they likely would.
   527. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5906571)
There are paths without the Clemson disaster scenario. Long story short*, Baylor and Wisconsin getting trounced and Georgia winning would open the door. This miraculous finish to the first half for Baylor is inching the door closed, though.


*With Georgia shutting Oklahoma out of the playoff, the Big 12 wouldn't need a replacement in the Sugar, so you'd have OSU-Clemson-Georgia-LSU, Oregon-Penn State, Florida-Oklahoma, Virginia(?) in the Orange, and G5 in the Cotton. The second Orange slot goes to the highest available SEC/B1G/ND team. Wisconsin with two blowouts against OSU and a loss to Illinois probably falls behind Alabama. Auburn should be a backstop, but after the sketchy way Mississippi State leapfrogged Michigan State in the final rankings in 2014 despite both being idle, I'd never put it past the committee to change its mind based on nothing. Even if there are no shenanigans, that still leaves the at-large to the Cotton. Was Utah's loss bad enough to put it behind Alabama? Would a blown-out Baylor stay ahead? Clemson losing badly enough to fall out of the playoff actually crushes Alabama's hopes, because it surely stays ahead and claims this spot.
   528. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 02:13 PM (#5906587)
Yeah. I was trying to find a way to eliminate 2 ACC teams, but that's pretty much impossible. I'm not going to shed any tears for Alabama, but it's a shame that a likely 4 loss, unranked Virginia is locked into the Orange bowl.
   529. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5906598)
I honestly can't believe Baylor has a chance to steal this game.
   530. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5906599)
Holy ####!
   531. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5906601)
Well, no matter the outcome of this game, both are going to a new year's six, so that pretty much eliminates Alabama.

OSU
LSU
GA
OU
Baylor
Oregon
UF
PSU
UVA
Clemson
G5

Are all locks. Alabama would need Wisc to get annihilated, and also pass Utah and Auburn.
   532. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 07, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5906602)
Sooners putting altogether too much trust in their shitty defensive backs, I’d say....
   533. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 07, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5906603)
....and I always forget how high the average level of risk-aversion is among college coaches.
   534. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 03:43 PM (#5906607)
Every OU fan just became an LSU fan.
   535. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 04:36 PM (#5906619)
I'm not thrilled with either the prospect of the SEC getting two teams or lackluster Oklahoma getting in and most likely being a walking bye for a team I would be rooting against. Gun to my head, I guess I want Georgia to steal this, which would presumably pit Ohio State and LSU, giving Clemson a cleaner path.
   536. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5906622)
Forearm down.
   537. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 05:26 PM (#5906628)
Memphis with a Hail Mary from midfield on the last play of the half, and Cincinnati picked it off and returned it 70-odd yards. Looked like it could go for a minute.

Bearcats 14-10.
   538. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5906636)
Gun to my head, I guess I want Georgia to steal this, which would presumably pit Ohio State and LSU, giving Clemson a cleaner path.


Not looking likely.
   539. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 06:01 PM (#5906637)
Kiffin to Ole Miss. I can only hope this ends in spectacular disaster.
   540. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2019 at 06:24 PM (#5906641)
Kiffin to Ole Miss. I can only hope this ends in spectacular disaster.


I guess it can end in ordinary disaster, but the disaster part seems certain.

   541. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 06:37 PM (#5906643)
Cincinnati's returner just took a kickoff at the one, stepped back in the end zone and knelt, but it was called a touchback and upheld on review. 23-21 Memphis.
   542. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 06:49 PM (#5906644)
Georgia's defense is doing an admirable job, but the Georgia offense is what we thought it was.
   543. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:08 PM (#5906646)
Ah, well. The most important thing is to note that Dennis Winston (Arkansas 1973-76), Jeremy Maclin (Missouri 2007-08), Frank Zeigler (South Carolina 1967-69) and Ed Simonini (Texas A&M 1972-75) were named SEC Legends. Congratulations to them on the highest honor in the sport.
   544. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:15 PM (#5906650)
Memphis goes up 29-24 with 1:14 left. Cincinnati without any timeouts.
   545. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:15 PM (#5906651)
Ah, well. The most important thing is to note that Dennis Winston (Arkansas 1973-76), Jeremy Maclin (Missouri 2007-08), Frank Zeigler (South Carolina 1967-69) and Ed Simonini (Texas A&M 1972-75) were named SEC Legends. Congratulations to them on the highest honor in the sport.


How does that work when none of them played in the SEC?
   546. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:25 PM (#5906653)
The power of the SEC's greatness transcends space and time.
   547. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:34 PM (#5906654)
Clemson may be great or may be average. Thanks for your input, Todd McShay.
   548. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:47 PM (#5906657)
So, seems like the playoff is set. But I'm still gonna watch to see if there is chaos tonight.

This UVA QB put on a show against Va Tech, maybe he can make this interesting for a minute.
   549. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:53 PM (#5906658)
How close was that to a minute?
   550. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:04 PM (#5906660)
Almost exactly. But he did drive the field before that. And now it looked like they were back on Clemson's side of the field before the commercial.

UNC made this kind of a game a couple years ago, that could still happen...in theory.
   551. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:07 PM (#5906662)
Ugh, I give up. Has the Big Ten game started?

Edit: oh, that wasn't pick #2. They are still in it!
   552. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:09 PM (#5906663)
21 minutes to kickoff according the Fox's countdown clock.
   553. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:12 PM (#5906664)
21 minutes to kickoff according the Fox's countdown clock.

Out-#######-rageous. Game is listed at 8 PM start time.
   554. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:22 PM (#5906668)
Punting here is just playing not to lose by 50.
   555. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:31 PM (#5906671)
If even. This drive illustrates how meaningless an extra 30 yards is to the Clemson O.

Especially after the announcers were talking about how they have nothing to lose. Super lame.
   556. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5906672)
Ok, maybe those 30 yards do make a difference. Whatever.
   557. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:34 PM (#5906673)
Taylor breaks a long run, then Ohio State turns the ball over on downs. Meaningless friskiness from the Badgers!
   558. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:35 PM (#5906674)
Sometimes it really feels like Dabo can see into the ####### future. Wtf with that timeout and how well that sequence worked out?
   559. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:43 PM (#5906676)
So, Wisconsin can't jump anyone with a win? Oklahoma? Clemson with a loss? Probably not Ohio State (unless its a blowout).
   560. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:50 PM (#5906677)
I would certainly take Wisconsin over Oklahoma in that case, but I doubt the committee would with 38-7 and the Illinois debacle having happened.
   561. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:51 PM (#5906678)
Certainly no one who matters. They would pass Utah, Baylor, and Georgia, but that would leave them at 5 at best. That Illinois loss looms large.

   562. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:54 PM (#5906679)
This Big Ten game is ####### delightful!
   563. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 07, 2019 at 08:57 PM (#5906680)
Seems pretty clear that LSU is going to be Number One heading into the playoff.
   564. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:06 PM (#5906683)
Normally it wouldn't matter much, but the difference between playing Clemson or OU is huge.
   565. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:08 PM (#5906685)
Of course if OSU loses, they will be #4, which LSU would not appreciate.
   566. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:08 PM (#5906686)
Clemson with another touchdown to go up 31-7 before the half, as I assume everyone has migrated away from that game.
   567. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:17 PM (#5906689)
How about that!?
   568. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:18 PM (#5906690)
I doubt OSU would fall past three -- though, I'd be tickled if it happened. The stuff like conference championships is only supposed to come into play when differentiating comparable teams, and the weekly Rob Mullens interviews have made quite clear that there's a giant gulf separating Oklahoma from the top three.
   569. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:23 PM (#5906692)
Wow. This is really happening.
   570. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5906693)
Drag your tooooeeessss.
   571. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:49 PM (#5906695)
Great response by Wisky.
   572. Meatwad Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:27 PM (#5906701)
This game is about to be tied. Wisconsin had a great first half but the second half matters as well
   573. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:30 PM (#5906702)
Great. Wisconsin had the chance to get off the field on 3rd-and-7, the corner got too aggressive when Olave took one step back toward Fields turning a play that was dead into a 50-yard gain, and now things are going to completely fall apart right down to the ability to hold on to a long snap.
   574. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:30 PM (#5906703)
That's a terrible missed opportunity for the Ohio State University.
   575. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:32 PM (#5906704)
Caesars has Clemson favored by 4.5 over LSU and 1.5 over Ohio State.
   576. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:43 PM (#5906709)
That's a terrible missed opportunity for the Ohio State University.

THE
   577. JAHV Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:01 PM (#5906716)
Ugh. Wisconsin is done, aren't they?
   578. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:02 PM (#5906717)
If anything could knock Virginia out of the Orange, you'd think it'd be 62-17.
   579. JAHV Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:03 PM (#5906718)
As I say that, they force a third and long. I think the game is over if they give up a first here.
   580. JAHV Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:04 PM (#5906719)
And they give it up. Come on Badgers.
   581. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:09 PM (#5906721)
If anything could knock Virginia out of the Orange, you'd think it'd be 62-17.


Who do ou replace them with though? VA Tech, who UVA beat? Wake Forest? There has to be an ACC team in the Orange.
   582. JAHV Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:09 PM (#5906722)
And, barring a miraculous change of momentum, that's game.

My guess:
1. LSU
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

But OSU could continue piling on and earn that 1 spot.
   583. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:37 PM (#5906727)
I think it's gonna be
1. LSU
2. Clem(p)son
3. OSU
4. Oklahoma

but it doesn't really matter becuz the same teams would play each other in the 1st round
   584. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:41 PM (#5906728)
I think Ohio State will squeak out a #1. The top 3 teams all had convincing wins. OSU had a poor first half, but they have been 27-0 in the second. That should be enough to maintain.
   585. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:49 PM (#5906730)
Clem(p)son


Wasn't it Climpson?

   586. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 07, 2019 at 11:57 PM (#5906734)
Who do ou replace them with though? VA Tech, who UVA beat? Wake Forest? There has to be an ACC team in the Orange.

Virginia Tech. It was the second-best team overall, and particularly once things clicked in October. Yes, Virginia won last week, bit it felt like it was barely hanging on and that its offensive output consisted of Perkins pulling like five rabbits out of his hat while walking a tightrope. If I had to pick which team is more likely to play a competitive game against somebody in the top ten, there's no question which it'd be.
   587. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 08, 2019 at 12:17 AM (#5906737)
I think Ohio State will squeak out a #1. The top 3 teams all had convincing wins.


LSU had a more convincing win over a better team. If I had a vote, they'd be my Number One.
   588. Howie Menckel Posted: December 08, 2019 at 01:13 AM (#5906739)
they factor in location of bowl games vs. location of schools, and quality of narrative, for matchups (not sure if they fully admit that, or if they just do it). this year is easy; 3 teams with a good case for No. 1, so just a matter of who they want facing Oklahoma in the semis.

...................

Steve Berkowitz
@ByBerkowitz
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will pick up $300,000 in bonuses for the Tigers' win over U-Va in the ACC championship game:
--$150,000 for ACC title
--Additional bowl bonus of $150,000 for making CFP semis.

Swinney is now up to $400,000 in bonuses so far this season
11:01 PM · Dec 7, 2019

...............

[wait - if the coach gets that much, I can only imagine how much cash that QB raked in tonight! being a player, and all)
   589. JAHV Posted: December 08, 2019 at 04:19 AM (#5906742)
That number one spot is a big deal, too. I'd MUCH rather face Oklahoma than Clemson (who I think is fated to be in the 3 spot despite their dismantling of Virginia - there's simply no real resume there).
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