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Sunday, October 30, 2022
The longest month. This year even longer than usual.
* 30 days hath November, except in the college football thread, where it runs through Championship Week before giving way to the Bowl Spectacular.
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...obviously not a TD.
If it's not, just give up now.
That kind of thing is exactly the reason why Franklin has a hard time getting respect. In his heart, he's always still coaching at Vandy, just trying to stay competitive against the bigger teams.
you're not going to beat top 10 teams when your QB is throwing multiple interceptions to defensive linemen.
And yet, they were in the game until Franklin waved the white flag with that FG.
Gators defense opens the game by allowing UGA to convert 1st-and-25, and then gets a stop on the very next set of downs. Go figure.
people used to look a lot older.
i blame the lack of preservatives in their diet.
- get a defensive stop
- run the clock down
- score a TD
i don't think that's an unreasonable plan.
You are truly addled if you thought PSU was likely to get a defensive stop by that point of the game.
How was your European holiday?
at that point in the game (6 minutes left, down 9), there were 3 scenarios that could have led to a penn state win:
franklin's scenario:
- kick the FG (70%)
- get a defensive stop (40%)
- run the clock down (50/50)
- score a TD to win the game (because you're down 6) (33%)
your best case scenario:
- convert 4th down (50/50 at best)
- finish the drive with a TD (another 50/50 tossup)
- get a defensive stop (40%)
- run the clock down (50/50)
- kick a FG to win the game, because you're only down 2 points (70%)
your lowball scenario:
- convert 4th down (50/50 at best)
- finish the drive with a TD (another 50/50 tossup)
- tosu drives for a TD anyway (let's call that 40% likely)
- score a TD to get within 1 score, because now you're down 9 points again (33%)
- recover an onside kick because you're still trailing (20%)
- drive down the field in the last two minutes (50/50 at best)
- kick a game winning FG (70%)
i don't know how you could possibly think either of those scenarios (where we're already assuming penn state wins two coin flips) is more likely to yield a victory than the one franklin chose.
PSU's win probability went up after franklin chose to kick the FG
Where'd you stay? Hotel or rental?
show me your work.
From 91.0% OSU to 87.3%, according to ESPN.
Not good enough.
Well, they can't. But driving for a TD gives them at least a little margin for error.
then why the #### are you shitting on james franklin??????
Sounds great, I love transit myself so that would always be how I'd do it - I was close enough to booking a trip that I actually have the Paris Metro app on my phone.
Probably won't be an option in 2023, but it's definitely on the board for 2024.
I don't know what the Gators did to make the gods so angry, but holy hell, obviously this game was going to be hard enough without that kind of sh*t luck.
Well, for one thing, we don't know what the odds would have been with a conversion, especially if it was followed by a TD. My whole argument was that the decision was shortsighted and traded a meaningless short-term benefit at the expense of holding on to slim bigger-picture odds. As I've said, you're fundamentally misunderstanding this point by emphasizing the meaningless short-term benefit.
What point do you even think you're making here?
I'm done with this conversation, so say whatever you want as the last word.
The win probability went up *after the field goal was made*, not when the decision was made to kick. It also would have gone up with a first down, but before the play we don't get to just account only for the successful outcome and ignore the downside.
And that stuff is based on average game states and tells us nothing about Penn State's specific likelihood of getting a stop against Ohio State (evidently very low) and then scoring again.
Yes. The "three scenarios" did not include "Score a touchdown and still have the chance to win with a second touchdown if you manage to hold Ohio State to a field goal."
Like what the hell.
that's fair. let's break down that scenario, assuming PSU can hold tosu to a FG instead of a TD:
- convert 4th down (50/50 at best)
- finish the drive with a TD (another 50/50 tossup)
- tosu kicks a FG (give that a 60% chance, including the possibility of an outright defensive stop)
- score a TD to win the game (because you're down 5) (33%)
franklin's scenario:
- kick the FG (70%)
- tosu kicks a FG (give that a 60% chance, including the possibility of an outright defensive stop)
- score a TD to get within 1 score, because now you're down 9 points again (33%)
- recover an onside kick because you're still trailing (20%)
- drive down the field in the last two minutes (50/50 at best)
- kick a game winning FG (70%)
so, yeah, that would be a point in favor of going for it on 4th down.
except you would also still lose the game on the spot (more or less) if you get stuffed on that 4th down (which had already happened once in the 3rd quarter).
Yes, and that's a good point - he clearly has an aggressive mindset but he's undermining himself with the 3rd down play calls.
That said, no easy answers here. UGA is plainly too quick on defense for the Gators to get away with a lot of outside run plays. And Napier plainly doesn't have a lot of trust in Richardson throwing the ball.
That's three TOs and 3 punts forced now. I don't want to overstate the Gators' defensive performance here, but it's clearly progress over what we've been seeing this year, and it should be good enough to keep the Gators in the game more than it has.
In fairness, I'm pretty sure they called it earlier and AR overthrew it.
Still, an answer score here by the Gators keeps them in it. In a lot of ways, they've already done the heaviest lifting, in terms of a comeback.
Clemson-Michigan didn't get addressed.
1 Tennessee '@ Georgia' Missouri @ South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
2 Ohio State @ Northwestern Indiana @ Maryland 'Michigan'
3 Georgia 'Tennessee' @ Mississippi State @ Kentucky Georgia Tech
4 Clemson @ Notre Dame Louisville Miami (FL) South Carolina
5 Michigan @ Rutgers Nebraska 'Illinois' '@ Ohio State'
6 Alabama '@ LSU' '@ Mississippi' Austin Peay Auburn
I assume you are talking about Austin Peay. Alabama always schedules the cupiest cake they can find the week before the Auburn game. TBF, Auburn usually does the same. They are playing Western Kentucky.
The race to be eligible for a trip to Birmingham is on.
Sometimes you can't choose. It's like heads they win, tails you're gonna lose.
But I also sort of understand the griping we're hearing about Patrick Toney, because no one on this defense ever seems to be where they're supposed to be. It's not like they're just getting beat - even terrible offenses like A&M are easily finding blown assignments all over the field.
On the bright side, AR seems to be feeling good today.
Feels like a first-to-50 kind of game.
First team to get a stop wins.
Ohio State promptly scores to take its first lead.
That sure sounds like Northwestern, all right ... story checks out.
And it's good to see a few of the younger receivers make plays.
For those not watching: the 4 SEC teams that have never played in the SEC Championship game.
RGIII keeps talking about the city of College Station as if it's some kind of proud sports metropolis like Chicago or something. Like, dude, there's literally nothing but the university there. It's in the name of the place and everything.
But, converted on the next play, so no harm done.
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