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Sunday, October 30, 2022
The longest month. This year even longer than usual.
* 30 days hath November, except in the college football thread, where it runs through Championship Week before giving way to the Bowl Spectacular.
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Ohio State can't cover Michigan apparently, this could become a blowout for the Wolverines.
Perhaps I spoke too soon.
And no on Michigan. Georgia has the Oregon and Tennessee drubbings on its record (maybe marginal advantage to Michigan combined with the Penn State game?), and probably more that's impressive to the committee outside of that.
For those who weren't up in the middle of the night for that, on USC's drive for the game-winning touchdown with a minute left, Williams got stood up a yard short of the sticks on a 4th-and-7 scramble and had started being driven back by three defenders, but the whistles got swallowed long enough for the offensive line to join the scrum from behind and reverse its direction.
No, 2014 isn't still stuck in my craw. Why do you ask?
USC, you're up...
Weigman torching LSU, on the other hand...
Apparently the Big 10 Commissioner was watching a different game than the rest of the country:
"Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren called No. 3 Michigan's 45-23 victory over No. 2 Ohio State an "instant classic" and made the case after the game that "without a doubt" the Big Ten should end up with two teams in the College Football Playoff. "Clearly, Michigan and Ohio State are two of the best four teams in the country, and I think today proved it. Great football game. Epic football game. Without a doubt, I think they are clearly two of the best football teams in the country."
Yeah, it's his job, but c'mon. Epic game? My tOSU fanatic friend texted me 'total disaster' which seems a bit more apropos.
Washington needs to win to create a three-way tie, wherein Oregon would be the first team eliminated, but Washington's own hopes went by the wayside because the thing that will decide Utah-Washington -- the cumulative conference record of conference opponents -- went in Utah's favor when UCLA beat Cal.
And they lost the turnover battle 3-0!
It's potentially very consequential. LSU at 11-2, with a conference championship and wins over Georgia and Alabama, would probably be ahead of Ohio State in the pecking order and a USC loss away from the fourth seed.
If USC and TCU both lose, TCU gets in for sure? Who else is there... Alabama or Tennessee?
It was 28-0 when I said this. USF now leads 39-38.
I think Georgia and Michigan were in regardless of those results.
TCU-OSU is interesting, because the committee was obviously eager to rate TCU below anybody it plausibly could until all those teams lost (in some cases again) and forced its hand, and TCU wouldn't have the "conference championship" trump card.
I think OSU's ahead of anybody with two losses, given the impression I've gotten from the committee is that Georgia and Ohio State had a gap over everyone. Some air came out of the balloon, but this wasn't like that disqualifying loss to Iowa.
And if TCU and USC both lose, TCU is in by default. Alabama would probably finish fifth. I don't know how they could get Tennessee in the discussion, with something resembling a disqualifying Iowa blowout and Joe Milton now at quarterback, which the rules say needs to be accounted for.
Tulane really better win next week, because UCF has torched any confidence I ever might've had that it would give a good account of itself against somebody ranked ~10 these past two weeks. Just ghastly.
Saban has begun lobbying. Two losses on the last play, he says. Three wins that came down to one play went unmentioned.
Interesting question - suppose TCU and USC both lose. Would the committee put OSU and Bama over both? That would be 2 SEC + 2 B1G teams in the final four.
Even more interesting question - suppose all of the current top 4 lose their conference championships. I can't see anyone other than OSU/Bama from outside the top 4 jumping Georgia or Michigan. Would the committee still go with Georgia, Michigan, OSU, Bama? That would be 2 SEC + 2 B1G teams in the final four, with the SEC and B1G champs also on the outside.
"they would do anything for ratings, anything for ratings, anything for ratings - but they won't do that... oh, no, they won't do that..."
Usually there's at least one of these games. Last year, for example:
-the AAC Championship was 8-0 Cincinnati against 8-0 Houston, which is basically the platonic ideal for a conference championship game
-the ACC Championship was 7-1 Wake Forest against 7-1 Pittsburgh (no other 1-loss teams)
-honorable mention to the SEC Championship, which was 8-0 Georgia against 7-1 Alabama, with no other 1-loss team; so even though Alabama won, they were still tied for the best record in the league with the H2H win over Georgia
In other words, all the games this year are essentially extraneous - we don't even have an Honorable Mention game like the SEC game last year. The rightful champions in each league have already been settled, IMO, and they are:
AAC: Tulane
ACC: Clemson
XII: TCU
B1G: Michigan
CUSA: UTSA
MAC: Ohio
MW: Boise State
PAC12: USC
SEC: Georgia
SBC: Troy (H2H win over South Alabama)
We could skip this weekend altogether, send Georgia-Michigan-TCU-USC to the playoff, and everyone except maybe Nick Saban would think it to be a just outcome. But instead we have to go through the song-and-dance of these dumb extra games and quite possibly end up with stupider playoff matchups as a result.
I know this ship sailed 30 years ago and I'm yelling at clouds here, and that it'll only get worse in the future seeing as how we're on the eve of expanding the playoff field once again. But still I think a sport with such a short season should be trying to make each regular season game more important instead of less.
They're already behind an 11-1 USC, but I think this is absolutely wrong. Ohio St has the stronger SOS, SOR, Game Control, Avg. Margin of Victory, and is better by the efficiency metrics. The computer rankings almost all have Ohio St clearly ahead of USC.
If you line up the performances next to each other, it's pretty clear that Ohio St has been the better team all year. If people want to say that a conference championship trumps basically everything else, then ok, put USC ahead of Ohio St next week. But at the moment, it is a completely incorrect decision.
With all due respect, that seems like a stupid way to compare the 2 teams. According to that graph, USC's victory against Rice is their most impressive victory. That system seems to give her a lot of credit for beating a bad team by a lot of points. I do not buy that. Ohio State lost by 3 touchdowns at home against a team without their best offensive player. USC has lost one game by one-point. They will have a chance to avenge that loss today. If they do it they will deservedly be picked the head of Ohio State. If they do not, Ohio State will take their spot.
edit: so OSU is in, and it's just whether there is any argument to put anyone in over TCU if they lose, and the answer is probably no?
But that's its only path, because the defense is terrible.
Not that we're going to get to find out.
Yeah, I think it's just down to seeding, unless Darren Sproles steps out of a time machine and TCU gets murdered.
Don't care about either team.
But that would be such a travesty, for me, that there is no possible interesting outcome.
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