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Wednesday, August 26, 2020

OT - Soccer Thread - Brave New World

OK, 2019-2020 is over, 2020-2021 has begun, except for Celtic who have already ended the interesting portion of 2020-2021.

EPL - September 12
La Liga - September 12
Bundesliga - September 18
Ligue Une - Already underway
Serie A - Unknown, possibly September 12
UEFA Champions League - Playoffs September 22, Group Stage October 20

Euros next summer,  CONCACAF Qualifying starts October 7 (Alphonso Davies and Canada start October 8).  Olympics start July 21 (Women) and July 22 (Men).  Women’s Euros scheduled for next summer are moving to 2022 which might be a good thing for them (and us) with the World Cup in the winter.

Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: August 26, 2020 at 08:13 PM | 266 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   1. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: August 26, 2020 at 08:16 PM (#5972433)
Bumping the last comment from the previous thread;

The EPL is indeed very good right now, but not that much better, if any better, as compared to its competition than was La Liga in the last decade. Of course, the EPL does seem to be attracting more stars now top to bottom than La Liga did.

But, you don't have to go back too far until you hit Serie A in the early/mid 1990s.
   2. spivey Posted: August 27, 2020 at 09:26 AM (#5972559)
--Copying over from old thread--

I agree that La Liga of 5-10 years ago was probably better than EPL now. Barcelona was so, so good - I mean, they were probably the best team ever. . And Real Madrid was very good too, and Atletico for a few year stretch there was probably a borderline top 5 team. All of those teams were better than any EPL team was at the time, and really probably better than every team in the world bar Bayern.

As I recall they were also cleaning up in Europa. Not just Sevilla, but the other Spanish teams were consistently winning their draws vs. similarly ranked teams in other leagues. It was a golden age of Spanish soccer as well, and really kind of the nadir of the EPL. And Italy was pretty weak beyond Juve a lot of those years too.
   3. spivey Posted: August 27, 2020 at 09:27 AM (#5972560)
Baldrick (or others that closely follow women's soccer),

How good is the North Carolina Courage? Like, would they be able to hang with your Wolfburgs, OL, or City's of Europe?
   4. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: August 27, 2020 at 09:57 AM (#5972565)
So should the women's CL final on Sunday be a good match or is Lyon just going to run it over? I see that Lyon won both their Quarter and Semi matches by a single goal while Wolfsburg destroyed Glasgow City in the quarters though I know nothing of relative quality and if that is something that I should read into. A very quick check seems to suggest that Wolfsburg are a bit of a fashionable team (their striker seems to be something of an icon though she looks like she's about 12 which probably says more about how old I am). But Lyon have won five in a row or something so I'm curious if those one goal wins were more in line with City beating Palace 1-0 but having 80% of the ball and not giving up any shots.
   5. manchestermets Posted: August 27, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5972577)
Then, remember this is a fantasy, he calls Ronaldo* to persuade him to join Mourinho. Then Ronaldo persuades Chiellini or Bonucci to shore up the defense.


Yeah, it's not Ronaldo, Chiellini or Bonucci that is the obstacle to that fantasy.
   6. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: August 27, 2020 at 11:50 AM (#5972630)
How good is the North Carolina Courage? Like, would they be able to hang with your Wolfburgs, OL, or City's of Europe?
They beat PSG and Lyon in the 2018 International Champions Cup, and beat Man City and lost 1-0 to Lyon in the 2019 edition. That's a friendly tournament, but the women's teams take it seriously and seem to treat it like a de facto world club championship. I think the Courage could definitely make a go of it in Europe. Or could have before Sam Mewis left for Man City. I expect baldrick can correct me if this is rose-tinted hometown glasses ruining my vision.
   7. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 27, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5972649)
Nobody planning to watch the draw for the Europa second qualifying round? If Spurs end up against Fudbalski klub Borac Banja Luka, they could be in for a real battle.
   8. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 27, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5972661)
the World Cup in the winter.

I'm still not completely convinced that they're actually going to hold this tournament in the friggin' desert, in the middle of the European domestic (and NFL!) season. (Then again, if COVID is still a thing in two years, Qatar [less than 200 deaths] seems a better bet than pretty much anyplace else...)

Fudbalski klub Borac Banja Luka

I am considering this for my tombstone.
   9. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 27, 2020 at 08:45 PM (#5972884)
Weston McKennie to Juve seems like a bizarre transfer.

It looks like Matt Doherty is headed to Tottenham, for pretty cheap. I like that a lot for Spurs.
   10. spivey Posted: August 27, 2020 at 09:25 PM (#5972893)
I do too. For as cheap as they've been, the Hojberg and Doherty transfers are really, really nice.
   11. spivey Posted: August 27, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5972894)
I don't know that McKennie is going to work, but Juve's midfield and team need some high-workrate B2B players badly. I think at least the idea is right, if not the execution. And he is very young and versatile and probably won't command big wages, which is nice for a squad player at a team like Juve.
   12. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: August 29, 2020 at 10:49 AM (#5973155)
   13. I am going to be Frank Posted: August 29, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5973160)
I can't believe the Community Shield is being played today (ESPN+ for those interested).
   14. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2020 at 08:47 AM (#5973222)
Lyon is about 60% to win. In the standard range for a decent favorite.
   15. Mefisto Posted: August 30, 2020 at 11:10 AM (#5973224)
Doherty's radar map from Statsbomb is here. Looks pretty meh to me, but there are often things the stats don't capture. And he was cheap.
   16. Mefisto Posted: September 02, 2020 at 11:22 AM (#5973859)
Two Statsbomb previews for folks here: Tottenham and Sheffield United.

I guess there are some Chelsea fans too, so here.
   17. Mefisto Posted: September 02, 2020 at 02:53 PM (#5973891)
   18. strong silence Posted: September 02, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5973899)
Is that link broken Mefisto?
   19. Mefisto Posted: September 02, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5973925)
Yep. Try this
   20. frannyzoo Posted: September 02, 2020 at 07:23 PM (#5973966)
UEFA Nations League starts tomorrow, so club football is pushed back. That's not me yawning, that's you yawning.

On the other hand, far less chance of sectarian violence given the lack of fans. Thankfully.
   21. Mefisto Posted: September 04, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5974557)
I'm going on the record now to say that United's third kit is the worst I've ever seen.
   22. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 04, 2020 at 06:09 PM (#5974560)
Lots of brits have pointed out that it is similar to dazzle (aka razzle dazzle).

Not sure if that was intentional, but thinking about it that way makes it a little more bearable.
   23. Mefisto Posted: September 04, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5974564)
Can't say it helped me appreciate it more.
   24. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 05, 2020 at 08:48 AM (#5974659)
EPL betting odds points totals
Manchester City    91
Liverpool          86.5

Manchester United  73
Chelsea            73

Arsenal            65
Tottenham          64.5

Wolves             58
Leicester          57.5

Everton            53
Southampton        49

Leeds              45
West Ham           44
Sheffield United   43.5
Brighton           41.5
Burnley            41.5

Palace             39
Aston Villa        38
Newcastle          37.5
Fulham             34.5
West Brom          34 
   25. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 05, 2020 at 10:35 AM (#5974663)
Franny - You don’t like the Nations League? I think it’s fantastic. Granted, the bar it had to clear was “better than international friendly” so not particularly high but I enjoy it. It’s competitive soccer and it’s competitive soccer played on an even playing field. This is a hell of a lot better than watching Germany put 9 past the Faroe Islands or something.

I say this as I watch Gibraltar and San Marino. Obviously live soccer hasn’t been a thing much in recent months so I’m enjoying that element of it but this has been fun. I do love that the Gibraltar stadium appears to be in an airport so we’ve had a plane landing right behind the goal. I love the idea of coming in for a landing and saying “oh look at those kids out there playing soccer” and not realizing it is a genuine competitive international match.

And I’m being serious about the airport. The shot that goes to the proverbial “row Z” is going to land on the runway which could conceivably result in one hell of an amusing accident report.
   26. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 05, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5974669)
Group D is amusing in terms of national populations:

Latvia           1,900,000
Malta              514
,565
other 5 combined   236
,246 
   27. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 05, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5974682)
15 players played every minutes of the EPL last season.

8 were GKs (Patricio, Dubravka, Pope, Ryan, Foster, Scheichel, Pickford, De Gea).
4 more were center backs (Van Dijjk, Maguire, Tarkowski, Coady)
2 more were defensive midfielders (Ward-Prowse, Rice)
last one was a right back (Baldock).

Will Leicester repeat their feat as a top 5 team this year? Seems unlikely. While they did have some injuries last year, so did all of the teams, save maybe Wolves, that they are competing with in the top 9 (10, if you want to round out the top 10 projected teams in the EPL, and throw in Southampton). Leicester will also have to juggle Europa this year, unlike last year, and that wont be so easy especially this year with a compressed schedule.

Speaking of, Wolves were amazingly healthy and played their starters a very high percentage of minutes, despite also making a fairly deep run in Europa. Hard to imagine they would have repeated that, except they won't have to, since they are not in Europe this year.

edit: another team that was able to play their starters a very high percentage of minutes was Sheffield United. Might expect some regression there for that reason alone.
   28. Richard Posted: September 05, 2020 at 08:41 PM (#5974717)
Sheffield United Players missed fewest Games due to injury in the PL last season.

Baldock is a right wing back, not a right back, which makes what he did more impressive.

The Blades Back 6 last season:

Basham,Stevens, Baldock ever present
Egan missed 2 games (both Man Utd games, one injury and one suspension)
Henderson missed 2 games (also both v Man Utd when he was ineligible)
O’Connell missed 5 games (one injury)

That’s not going to happen again, and Ramsdale is worse than Henderson. Regression is inevitable.

You can make a plausible argument for them finishing anywhere between 11th and 20th. A top half finish looks beyond them this year as the first XI will not be improved this transfer window.
   29. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 06, 2020 at 10:02 AM (#5974752)
Completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, but it seems ridiculous that of the 7 group D Nations League teams, pretty much the 3 least fancied are in a group all by themselves (maybe you also make an argument for Andorra). Unless UEFA changes the format again after the fact, one of those three will be in group C next year (Gibraltar, Liechtenstein, and San Marino).

Latvia (certainly) and the Faroes (probably) are a bit better than these teams. Malta probably also.

If the Faroes can hold on to win today, it will be the second time in their history they will have had back to back victories. The other time was when they beat Malta twice in Euro qualifying. The Nations league will do that.
   30. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 06, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5974753)
Not the highest quality football in this Andorra / Faroe Islands game. Not only are they essentially amateurs, they are playing in a torrential downpour.
   31. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 06, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5974760)
The Ukrainian defenders are probably not any good, but Ansu Fati goes by them like they aren't there.

Oh NBCSports seems to have picked up a bunch of matches from the English Women's League (apparently it's called the 'FA Women's Super League').
   32. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5974890)
wrong thread.
   33. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5974925)
Here's something you never see in tournament group play. Group C4 has played 4 games, with home teams going 0-4. How does that happen? Well, in 3 cases the better team, not too surprisingly, won. Lithuania lost to Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan lost to Belarus, and Belarus lost to Albania. No true surprises there, as in each case the winner was a step up in quality over the loser (of course, you still expect at least a draw or maybe two, since the better teams were on the road). But then Albania somehow managed to get beaten by Lithuania at home, which should be considered a major upset. Not at all obvious what happened looking at the stats either.
   34. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: September 08, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5975035)
Latvia and Lithuania should be the two worst non-tiny countries, given that they are relatively small, poor, and soccer isn't the #1 sport (ice hockey for Latvia, basketball for Lithuania, I THINK).

I was wondering which European countries would say some other sport is more popular than soccer, and I think it's just those two, Finland and Ireland. I can't think of any Estonian athletes in any sport, but according to this it's soccer. Although the national volleyball team (and "floorball" team, whatever that is) are actually good.

Lithuania beating Albania is way better than they should be doing!
   35. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2020 at 11:06 AM (#5975041)
More people in Malta than in Iceland, but Malta I guess could still be considered a tiny country, exempting itself here.

Moldova has 3.5 million people and currently has a terrible team. They haven't always been quite so bad though.
   36. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5975328)
EPL betting odds points totals, with 538 added

                    odds         538

Manchester City     91           88
Liverpool           87           80

Chelsea              73.5        69
Manchester United    73          71

Arsenal              65          56
Tottenham            64          57

Wolves               58          54
Leicester            57.5        57

Everton              53          51
Southampton          49          50

Leeds                45          39
West Ham             44          47
Sheffield United     43.5        43
Burnley              42          44
Brighton             41.5        43

Palace               38          42
Newcastle            38          39
Aston Villa          37.5        42
Fulham               34.5        39
West Brom            34          36


538 is within 5 points on all but 4 teams: Arsenal (-9) Liverpool (-7), Tottenham (-7), and Leeds (-6). All negative!

Expand it to within 3 points, and you also have: Chelsea (-4.5), Villa (+4.5), Fulham (+4.5), Wolves (-4), and Palace (+4).

Sensing a pattern here... there's a wider range in betting odds, so good teams are given more points and bad teams fewer. Only exception in the 9 teams above is Leeds. We had the same pattern last year, but it was a little less pronounced. That's mainly because last year 538 projected 11 more draws than betting odds, and this year they project 22 more draws.

So what actually happened last year? Both predicted too few draws. 538's current prediction matches last year's number of draws. As such, it seems betting odds is slightly inflationary on all or at least some teams, so you might mentally subtract a half point or a point across the board, or selectively subtract a point or three. There were 92 draws last year. This year the betting odds are only predicting 70 or so. I think that's fewer draws than there have ever been in the EPL (per game). 2018-2019 had only 73 draws, and I think that might have been the fewest ever.

Betting odds and 538 were pretty much evenly good (or really, not that good) last year. The teams they disagreed the most on were Arsenal (-9), Manchester United (-7.5), and Tottenham (-6.5). 538 was better on two out of three. They also disagreed on Palace (+4.5), Newcastle (+4), Bournemouth (+4), and Burnley (+3.5). Betting odds were slightly better on these four.

Without examining larger samples, my thought is, first, there is a slight bias in betting odds towards over-rating all teams, as people tend to bet on their own favorite teams, which might shade the line by half a point to a point across the board. Not enough to really make a difference on any individual team, but enough to create a bias in the league as a whole.

Then, 358 and betting odds fundamentally disagree on the range of point totals. Perhaps this is a recurring phenomenon in over/under betting (odds at "fault" for overrating the good and underrating the bad), perhaps it's that 538 cannot anticipate midseason adjustments (538 at "fault" for being blind to future changes), or perhaps it's a disagreement about how good the top 6 are versus the rest of the league (either 538 or betting odds at "fault", could go either way).

If I had to predict point totals for this year, I might start with betting odds and selectively drop points from the top 8 to 10 teams: 2 or 3 from Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham, and maybe a point from the rest.
   37. Mefisto Posted: September 09, 2020 at 01:55 PM (#5975357)
I'm surprised to see United doing so well vis a vis Chelsea. Chelsea have made some very significant signings over the summer. United have not. Maybe everyone lacks confidence that Lampard will be able to put the talent to good use, but his roster seems deeper and generally better than United's. Also, United have reached 70 points just one since 2012-13, so that strikes me as optimistic.
   38. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 09, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5975363)
Prediction time?

Nods.

Prediction time.

Liverpool
ManCity
ManUnited
Chelsea

Arsenal
Tottenham
Everton
Leicester
Southampton
West Ham
Leeds
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa (fixed - thanks Aunt Bea)
Wolves
West Brom
Burnley

Brighton
Newcastle
Fulham
   39. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5975367)
Is the second West Ham supposed to be Villa? Also, yikes on Wolves!
   40. The Marksist Posted: September 09, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5975391)
As always: I know nothing.

ManCity
Liverpool
Chelsea
ManUnited

Leicester
Arsenal
Wolves

Everton
Tottenham
Southampton
Leeds
Sheffield United
Burnley
West Ham
Crystal Palace
Brighton
West Brom
Villa
Newcastle
Fulham
   41. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 09, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5975395)
Is the second West Ham supposed to be Villa? Also, yikes on Wolves!


Yeah, I fixed that. Oops. Too much burgundy. Wolves just feels like a team that has had a lot of games without a lot of rotation the last couple of years and are due for a slide. I hope not, they are a fun group but I have a bad feeling.
   42. jmurph Posted: September 11, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5975752)
This is the most out of touch I've been on the Premier League in a while. So I'll make some silly predictions:

1. Liverpool
2. Man City
3. Chelsea
4. Everton

5. Arsenal
6. Tottenham
7. Manchester United
8. Leicester
9. Wolves
10. Southampton
11. West Ham
12. Burnley
13. Sheffield United
14. Aston Villa
15. Newcastle
16. Leeds
17. Fulham
18. Brighton
19. Crystal Palace
20. West Brom

   43. jmurph Posted: September 11, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5975756)
(The above statement is not meant to imply that I would make non-silly predictions when being more up to speed on Premier League news.)
   44. Mefisto Posted: September 11, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5975774)
Big splash signing by Spurs today: Alex Morgan. She's probably more mobile than Harry Kane, but they seem to have signed her to the women's team. :)
   45. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 12, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5976035)
I do not for the life of me understand how the handball rule is called. There was what I thought was a clear handball by Newcastle not called. In theory they were saying “ball to hand” but he had time to get it out of the way in my opinion.
   46. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 12, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5976036)
Incidentally anyone else sign up for Peacock? The version with commercials is perfect. It’s cheaper and of course no commercials during a game.
   47. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: September 12, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5976037)
You mean the $5/month version? That looks like essentially the same offer as the NBC Sports Gold replay package from last year ($60/year to watch the non-broadcast matches, plus replays of all matches from 9pm eastern). I think. But I haven't found a clear breakdown of the different options.

Still no cable-free league pass type deal :(
   48. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 12, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5976043)
Oops. I posted in the wrong thread.

On the Liverpool game, Jack Harrison from Leeds had a really nice goal. Leeds had 3 goals on 0.4 xG (538) for Leeds. 0.27 by understat. 0.33 infogol, 0.6 MCoA. Maybe too early to anoint them as contenders.
   49. ckash Posted: September 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM (#5976055)
1. Man City
2. Liverpool
3. Chelsea
4. Tottenham

5. Man U
6. Arsenal
7. Everton
8. Leicester
9. Wolves
10. Southampton
11. Sheff United
12. Leeds
13. Brighton
14. Newcastle
15. Crystal Palace
16. Aston Villa
17. West Ham
18. Burnley
19. Fulham
20. West Brom

The thought of Murinho getting Spurs back into Champions League, being rewarded with a 3 year contract extension, and then having his usual third year melt-down ensue will be the best thing to look forward to in the 2021-22 season.

This season will reward clubs will good depth or the resources to add it in January. Right now Man U doesn't have that depth, except in net.
   50. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 12, 2020 at 07:34 PM (#5976058)
Mr. Commissioner - Yeah the $5 plan. I was a bit surprised that it wasn’t airing all the games (or at least the NBC games). I thought Peacock acted as an NBC replacement.
   51. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 13, 2020 at 10:01 AM (#5976154)
It seems that they'll be taking more games off of NBCSN/NBC. In prior years the Spurs/Everton match would be on NBCSN (11:30 on a Sunday). Am I going to have to pay for it this year?
   52. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 13, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5976155)
Probably. I assume they are looking to drive people to pay for Peacock.
   53. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 13, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5976163)
I forgot how good James is with the ball at his feet.
   54. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5976165)
Everton defended that free kick VERY deep with two lines of four defenders in the box. Typically you wouldn't do that because you are asking for a ball to be floated right into he box where anything could happen. Spurs only had three guys in the box though, and Son passed it short I guess to set up another play. The ref then immediately blew the whistle for half time.

So weird all around.
   55. jmurph Posted: September 13, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5976166)
Probably. I assume they are looking to drive people to pay for Peacock.

Which is fine if it was actually available to people who stream. I don't want to pay to watch games on my laptop or drag out the cables to connect it to the tv like it's 2005.
   56. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 13, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5976167)
The whole “how to watch this sport?” situation has become just unbelievably irritating. At this point in my life, I have enough free time either to watch sports or to understand>evaluate>purchase viewing packages.....
   57. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5976170)
The broadcast showed a graphic stating that this was the first Everton away win against the Top 6 in 7 years.
   58. jmurph Posted: September 13, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5976171)
I'm the idiot who gladly throws money at all these apps for #### but damn, make it available!
   59. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 13, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5976174)
If today's display is any indicator, I'm pretty sure I'm not going to want to actually pay money to watch Spurs this season.
   60. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 13, 2020 at 05:32 PM (#5976228)
I'm sure this will end well ...
José Mourinho was critical of his Tottenham team after they slumped to a 1-0 home defeat against Everton, describing their pressing as lazy and complaining about the overall lack of intensity – particularly after Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s decisive goal on 55 minutes. He also called into question the mentality of his players, saying some had “a wrong state of mind”.

“I didn’t like my team,” the Spurs manager said. “In the second half after their goal we were poor and in my opinion we were not physically strong, no intensity. The team lacks in this moment many players’ physical condition.

“The struggle started in the way we pressed – or I would say in the way we didn’t press because our pressure up front was very, very poor. I would say it was lazy pressure and when you have lazy pressure you don’t press and you let opponents build from the back. When you let almost any team in the Premier League play from the back, they are comfortable to have the ball.

“Lazy pressure up front, that creates an unbalanced situation for the rest of the team. It disappoints me and that is where I now have to work.”
   61. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 13, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5976229)
jmurph* - What do you use to stream other services that doesn’t have Peacock? I had no problem getting it on my Apple TV.

* - jmurph autocorrects on my iPad to Juju RHP
   62. Hot Wheeling American Posted: September 13, 2020 at 05:52 PM (#5976230)
Peacock is not on Roku or the Firestick. Things suck!

I believe you also can’t re-start or rewind match on Peacock until it goes on demand in the evening of gameday.
   63. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 13, 2020 at 05:59 PM (#5976231)
62 - I couldn’t restart or rewind on the SportsGold package I had. I thought I was supposed to be able to but it never worked.
   64. strong silence Posted: September 13, 2020 at 08:14 PM (#5976249)
I have enough free time either to watch sports or to understand>evaluate>purchase viewing packages.....
Nick, I hope you can find more free time because playing sports, even soccer, is much, much better than watching sports.
   65. strong silence Posted: September 13, 2020 at 08:26 PM (#5976253)
Leeds had 3 goals on 0.4 xG (538) for Leeds. 0.27 by understat. 0.33 infogol, 0.6 MCoA. Maybe too early to anoint them as contenders.

xG and similar statistical analyses need to be revised because Leeds had three goals.

xG can't measure the effects of Bielsa, an innovative and influential coach.

Xg can't measure the probability of a great shot from a 30-year old Polish national who played in the Championship last season.

0.4 is absurd. Leeds had Liverpool's defense discombobulated and making errors all day.

I'm an Xg denier until it is shown to be reliable. AuntBea - why do you use xG to understand the game of football?
   66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5976254)
Liverpool completely dominated the second half of that game, xG or no xG.

Leeds will likely be relegated if they can only manage 6 shots per game (2 blocked), xG or no xG. (Of course, they will generally get more than they did against Liverpool. Just saying.)

Who was discombobulated? Non-shot xG was 3.0 to 0.7. Leeds didn't even manage to get any corners.

It was a thrilling game, and I'm looking forward to watching Leeds all year. Let's be real here though. Liverpool wins that particular game, the way it was played, 9 time out of 10.

edit: xG is "reliable", it's just not a great predictor of the number of goals a particular team will score in any one game. It's both somewhat useful as a predictive measure (generally more useful than actual goals scored, especially over the short run) and also somewhat useful as a tool to estimate a team's performance in a given game. It's definitely not perfect. However, if what you got out of that 4-3 scoreline is that Leeds and Liverpool are roughly equal teams, you will be gravely misled.

By the way, this is quite the uneducated statement: "xG and similar statistical analyses need to be revised because Leeds had three goals." If xG closely matched goals scored in every game, it would be a completely useless measure.
   67. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 13, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5976259)
Xg can't measure the probability of a great shot from a 30-year old Polish national who played in the Championship last season.


I mean that’s kind of exactly what it measures. Such a shot rarely goes in so just because it went in it isn’t worth 1.0 xG. If a guy hits a line drive in all four at bats but only gets 1 hit he still hit the ball great and probably should be seen as having an xAVG of .750 or something.

I won’t pretend to be close to an expert on xG or even fully trusting of it. But when I watch a game then see the xG afterwards it usually seems to match up with what I think I saw.
   68. jmurph Posted: September 14, 2020 at 07:34 AM (#5976273)
jmurph* - What do you use to stream other services that doesn’t have Peacock? I had no problem getting it on my Apple TV.

Yeah as HWA pointed out, it's not available on Roku or Amazon devices, which as I understand it is something like 2/3 or more of the all streaming market.

   69. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 14, 2020 at 08:13 AM (#5976276)
That's strange that they aren't making it available on those devices. Seems like a really dumb idea. Sometimes being the Apple fanboy that I am works out well.
   70. jmurph Posted: September 14, 2020 at 09:37 AM (#5976283)
I just assume it's Amazon's fault as are most things, although Roku dealing with the same issue makes me second guess that. The same thing is happening with HBO Max and some other services.
   71. jmurph Posted: September 14, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5976284)
Speaking of soccer streaming, I came across this new one yesterday: Fanatiz USA. It provides access to BeIn and Gol, so you get La Liga and Ligue Un, plus some South American leagues, I think. Thinking about trying it in my quest to pay for more streaming services than I could ever possibly use.
   72. jmurph Posted: September 14, 2020 at 12:04 PM (#5976320)
I forgot to note the price on the thing above: only $7.99! Very mixed reviews on the quality, though.
   73. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 15, 2020 at 09:40 PM (#5976708)
Holy hell it looks like Bale back to Spurs on a season long loan. I basically don't care if this makes any sense or if Bale has any motivation left at all. When I started following soccer in early 2010 I chose Spurs as my team (partially because of their followers in this topic) and Bale was the player that made me love Spurs. I'm so excited.
   74. jmurph Posted: September 16, 2020 at 09:32 AM (#5976870)
Apparently I'm going to be whining about this all year. I can't believe how badly NBC is screwing this up after years of everyone praising them for being the one network that got it right.
   75. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 16, 2020 at 09:36 AM (#5976873)
Reading through that thread it sounds like the issue this weekend isn't NBC trying to milk people for money* but the US Open golf tournament which typically is in June is this weekend and they have the rights. I'm sure the contracts have some requirements about what takes precedence.

* not ONLY that anyway
   76. spivey Posted: September 16, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5976918)
Looks like Spurs may be getting Bale back. And just in general are active in the transfer market in a way that pisses me off they didn't back Poch the same way.
   77. Mefisto Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5976931)
@74: Your whining is justified. I can't get Peacock, so I'm limited to the few games they choose for the cable channels I get.
   78. jmurph Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5976932)
I know he had some good times there but the whole Madrid experience seems like such a waste? Not an uncommon experience there, I guess (and Barcelona, too).

He of course accumulated generational wealth and won a ton, so I doubt he has any regrets!
   79. spivey Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5976937)
Bale had a lot of huge moments in huge games for Madrid, CL finals, Copa del Rey finals. Probably very mixed feelings from Madrid fans about him.

Madrid has absolutely no leverage, though, so Tottenham better not be paying almost any of his wages.
   80. jmurph Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5976942)
Definitely, but he also did a lot of sitting the last several years, that's all I meant.
   81. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5976945)
I know he had some good times there but the whole Madrid experience seems like such a waste? Not an uncommon experience there, I guess (and Barcelona, too).


Yeah I'm curious how everyone involved feels about his Madrid journey (including him). There's a bit of Manny Ramirez/Red Sox to the whole thing. On the face of it everything about the experience was phenomenal, great performances, victories in every major competition, incredible clutch performances...but for some reason there never seemed to be a mutual love from player or fans. I wonder if there is a racial aspect to it. I don't know how such things are seen in Spain but if Bale were English or Italian or Spanish would it be different? Is there something about being Welsh, hardly a traditional power, that makes him less acceptable?
   82. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 16, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5976988)
I'm so excited.


I'm much more excited about the purchase deal for Reguilon (even with the two attached clauses).
   83. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 16, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5977000)
Oh, I'm a fan of the Reguilon move as well, I'm just very irrational about Bale.
   84. The Marksist Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5977175)
Thiago to Liverpool sounds done. I'm cautiously excited! Assume he doesn't play as much as I'd like but that he's very good when he does play. And then in two years the whole team will explode, but that's a problem for future me to worry about.
   85. spivey Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5977194)
I agree I think I'm more excited about Reguilon than Bale. I think there's a place for both, though. I'm also excited by some of the names being thrown about for the backup striker.

I'm extremely bummed that Tottenham got N'dombele and not Aouor though, and will be pretty sad if he ends up at Arsenal.

Also bummed that Poch didn't get these kind of reinforcements heading into the 18-19 season, which they were clearly needed.
   86. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 17, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5977228)
Has anyone watched the Tottenham docu-series on Amazon? I'm a couple of episodes in and it's OK so far. It basically dismisses the first third of the season and Mourinho's arrival is the jumping off point which I found a bit unfair. Basically it's "everything has gone tits up so here is Jose" which has me wondering if part of the issue between Levy and Poch was the plan to have this documentary because there is virtually no behind the scenes stuff leading up to Mou (which comes about 15 minutes into episode one).
   87. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 17, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5977229)
I'm also excited by some of the names being thrown about for the backup striker.

BAS DOST BABY!!!

Also bummed that Poch didn't get these kind of reinforcements heading into the 18-19 season, which they were clearly needed.

This. 1000x this.

0-0 in Bum #### Bulgaria at the 65th minute. Sounds like another barn burner of a match.

I admitted on another site, "Thing is ... there's a Trumpkin-level nihilist that lurks deep in my soul, that I can keep contained 95% of time, but that manages to sneak out on Europa League Thursdays and loudly declaim ... \"####, I'd laugh my ass off if Spurs lost to Bum #### FC ... I wanna watch the world burn!""
   88. spivey Posted: September 17, 2020 at 01:48 PM (#5977238)
Spurs were on the ####### ropes until they got the rare penalty + 2 red card award.
   89. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5977240)
what happened?
   90. spivey Posted: September 17, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5977290)
Well, what happened the first 60-70 minutes is Spurs dominated possession but weren't getting any shots. Then Plovdiv scored a goal off their only corner.

For the goal, there was a scramble in front of the goal, Davies headed the ball which was going to be a goal, and a Plovdiv player just batted it out a la Suarez-vs-Ghana. He got an immediate red plus the penalty. There was then a lot of dissent, which I think was initially thought how the second red occurred, but Mourinho said in the post-game that it was a player ####### with the penalty spot so he got a second yellow.
   91. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 17, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5977291)
The first was a pure red for a blatant handball on the line. I'd really like to see video of the second (the satellite feed from Bulgaria was down for half of the match). A Plovdiv player got a second yellow for apparently digging up the turf around the penalty spot before Kane took the kick. Maybe you can get away with that sort of thing in the Bulgarian league?

EDIT: In real time, London Live said that the second red was for spitting on Ndombele. So I have no idea.
   92. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 17, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5977294)
Also, I thought Bergwijn drew a penalty in the first half when a Plovdiv player make a clumsy lunge for the ball and got Bergwijn's thigh instead.
   93. Pirate Joe Posted: September 17, 2020 at 07:18 PM (#5977338)
Reading through that thread it sounds like the issue this weekend isn't NBC trying to milk people for money* but the US Open golf tournament which typically is in June is this weekend and they have the rights. I'm sure the contracts have some requirements about what takes precedence.

* not ONLY that anyway



NBCSN isn't showing any of the US Open. On Saturday and Sunday they are showing 5-1/2 hours of the Tour de France instead of the Premier League.

On Monday they are showing the Rich Eisen show, Mecum Auto Auction Highlights and Poker from last year instead of the soccer.

   94. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: September 17, 2020 at 07:57 PM (#5977345)
The Peacock/NBCSN thing is pretty annoying. As others have mentioned, it's not available on my Firecube (which I also assumed was Amazon's fault, but maybe not). I can get it on my Vizio since it's a smart TV, but we watch everything else through the Firecube, so that is less than ideal. It also just doesn't make sense to have to check in two different places for the game. And then the replays are all on Peacock, whether the game was originally aired on NBCSN or not. My son had a heck of a time finding the Wolves' game this week. Hopefully it won't be that bad going forward, but it was much easier last season with NBCSN Gold.

The Wolves looked pretty good in their first game, so I'm hopeful they can stay near the top of the standings.
   95. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 17, 2020 at 08:09 PM (#5977347)
There was a lot of doom and gloom about this game in some Spurs circles, but I thought it was fine (from what I could see when the stream was actually up). The finishing was bad for whatever reason, but they created plenty of chances, which isn't always easy to do against a team putting 11 men behind the ball. Plus, as mentioned above, an obvious penalty against Bergwijn not gettting called.
   96. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:27 AM (#5977429)
They have defeated me and I went ahead and sprung for the pay version of Peacock despite the fact I can't actually get the app on my tv. I'll rely on the less than ideal AirPlay to get it to the tv, I guess.
   97. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:29 AM (#5977431)
American Kyle Krause, owner of Kum & Go convenience stores, among other things, has purchased Parma.

Really a shame he didn't buy into an English team, I feel like the puns would be better.
   98. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:54 AM (#5977433)
jmurph - Get yourself one of these. You can probably find a non-apple version on Amazon or a used version on eBay. I have one, it works pretty well.
   99. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5977446)
Oh man Jose you're reminding me I already have the Mac to HDMI adapter but it's for the old ones, pre lightning, and I just got a new laptop. Guess I'll just give Apple more of my money!

EDIT: I literally just bought a USB adapter yesterday so my kid could use a wireless mouse for his virtual school. Their innovations are so much less exciting when the rest of the tech world doesn't follow!
   100. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 18, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5977481)
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