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Wednesday, August 26, 2020

OT - Soccer Thread - Brave New World

OK, 2019-2020 is over, 2020-2021 has begun, except for Celtic who have already ended the interesting portion of 2020-2021.

EPL - September 12
La Liga - September 12
Bundesliga - September 18
Ligue Une - Already underway
Serie A - Unknown, possibly September 12
UEFA Champions League - Playoffs September 22, Group Stage October 20

Euros next summer,  CONCACAF Qualifying starts October 7 (Alphonso Davies and Canada start October 8).  Olympics start July 21 (Women) and July 22 (Men).  Women’s Euros scheduled for next summer are moving to 2022 which might be a good thing for them (and us) with the World Cup in the winter.

Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: August 26, 2020 at 08:13 PM | 436 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   101. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 18, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5977482)
flop
   102. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 18, 2020 at 01:19 PM (#5977483)
While on the subject of flip-flops ...

Jose yesterday - woe is me, the fixture congestion is nearly criminal!
Jose today - woe is me, I have too many players!

Speaking of which:
Reports coming out of Korea are confirming that Kim Min-Jae, the center back nicknamed Monster, has quashed a move to Lazio and made it clear he wants to go to Tottenham.

CFC
   103. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 18, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5977484)
Well 102 took a minute for me to comprehend.
   104. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 18, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5977489)
I realized it might cause confusion

=)
   105. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2020 at 05:47 PM (#5977541)
Bayern is already at 85% chance to win the Bundesliga. That is not ideal for any league, going into the season. They did win today 8-0.
   106. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2020 at 09:01 AM (#5977652)
West Brom has now given up 8 goals in two games, with still a lot of time left today. The three promoted teams have given up 15 goals so far in under 4 games.
   107. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5977660)
Leeds and Fulham playing each other today, but no let up of goals. 4-2 after 63 minutes. That's 21 goals given up so far by the 3 teams, 2 games each. 8 by West Brom, 7 by Fulham, 6 by Leeds. So far.
   108. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 19, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5977661)
7 by Leeds now. 14 goals in their two games and 20 minutes to go.
   109. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5977662)
Leeds had 4 goals on just 6 shots. One penalty though.
   110. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 19, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5977665)
According to Sean Forman AirPlay does not work with the Peacock app.
   111. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 19, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5977666)
In other news, Tim Howard on the NBC studio show. is he the highest profile person with Tourette’s to have a regular gig on television?
   112. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2020 at 12:08 PM (#5977668)
Leeds held on to win 4-3. Aside from their goal off a penalty, their other 3 goals were off of 0.65 xG (538), 0.55 (infogol), 0.69 (understat), 0.8 (MCoA). That's 6 goals from open play in 2 games, from about 1 xG.

Against Leeds, Liverpool got 2 goals from open play from 1.5 xG, so nothing special there. Fulham got 2 goals from open play from about 0.8 or so xG. Higher than you might expect, but nothing too special.

edit: in case you are wondering, no, Leeds did not outperform its xG in the last 2 (Championship) years. It was the opposite.

Infofol had them at:
2019-2020: 77 G, with 87 xG (scored 10 fewer goals expected); 35 GA, 38 xGA (gave up 3 fewer than expected).
2018-2019: 73 G, with 75 xG (scored 2 fewer than expected); 50 GA, 41 xGA (gave up 9 more than expected).

538 has not been impressed by Leeds yet. They had them as the 2nd worst team coming in to the year (surely underrated), ahead of only West Brom. They are now ahead of Fulham by a little, but their overall rating has dropped. I think they'll be fine, but I don't see a ton to be happy about yet.
   113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5977762)
Chelsea's Christensen with the intentional DOGSO on VAR. Easy reversal under the current system where even piddling handballs lead to penalties.
   114. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5977775)
16 games have been played this year in the EPL so far. Combined goals scored (10 minutes left): 62.

0 goals - 0 times
1 goal -- 2 times
2 goals - 3 times
3 goals - 4 times
4 goals - 2 times
5 goals - 0 times
6 goals - 1 times (current game)
7 goals - 4 times

Also, 11 penalties taken (I think) in 16 games, with only 1 miss.
   115. spivey Posted: September 20, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5977782)
Why am I having to look at Lingard's god damn player card on understat?

I actually think I'd be ok selling Alli, provided he fetched like 50+ million euros. I dunno that he will get that, though. In a world where teams seem to be struggling to cough up that kind of money for Aouor, who is clearly a better player.
   116. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2020 at 06:57 PM (#5977794)
I'm reading the EPL goal record for a 10-game weekend is 43 (Feb 5/6 2011), so we are on pace to break that. EPL Record for any weekend is 53, when there were 11 games (22 teams). Pretty sure we won't break that on a per game basis or otherwise, but I guess you never know.

That 2011 43 goal weekend featured 41 goals on Saturday in 8 games, followed by two 1-0 games. It also had two 8-goal games and a 7-goal game.

The 53 goals came on what was effectively the last weekend of the inaugural EPL season (1993), so maybe it should come with an asterisk? Three 6-goal games, two 7-goal games, and one 8-goal game. Four 3-goal games. Only one game with 2 goals or less.

Oh. And no games with a draw yet. It's been 4 years since the opening weekend did not have a scoreless draw, and 11 years since a season went through the first 16 games without a draw. On August 22, 2009, 6 games were played simultaneously (games 17 through 22 of the season, played on August 22), one of which ended in a draw. We'll pass 16 if Villa / Sheffield United doesn't end in a draw. That was the third week of the season in 2009--the second week only featured 6 games. The 2009 opening streak seems to have been the second longest opening streak without a draw before this year, in top flight history (not just the EPL).

As best I can tell, you have to go back to the 1891-1892 season (yes, that's the right century) to find a year in the English top flight where they started the season with more than 16 games without a draw. That year the first draw came in week 4 of a 14-team league, game number 25, 26 or 27 (not clear if these 3 games were played at the same time), when Stoke City drew Notts County 1-1 on September 26, 1891. That's also the record of course, since the professional league only goes back a few more years.


   117. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2020 at 11:07 PM (#5977850)
Two wins is a good start for Leicester, but maybe it's a bit too early to declare them a very good (top 4/5) team this year. They beat up on a probably very bad West Brom team (as did Everton), and aside from their great finishing weren't better than Burnley in the game today.
   118. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2020 at 11:23 PM (#5977853)
After two games, which is way too few to say anything useful anyway, and leaving out teams that only played one or no games (United, e.g., who were bad) the best performances considering expectations have probably come from Palace and Brighton. Brighton played very well in their loss to Chelsea and then beat up on Newcastle. Palace has been even better, good in both their games against Southampton and United. At the other end probably the worst is West Brom, who have been even worse than advertised.
   119. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 21, 2020 at 09:43 AM (#5977874)
I'd put Leeds in there too. I don't have any statistical basis for this so I may be talking out of my ass but I feel like the teams that have done well upon promotion are the ones that can score and are willing to attack. I know the scoreline was a bit flattering against Liverpool and shipping 3 against Fulham is not inspiring but I feel like they look like a team that can score enough to pick up the wins they need for survival.

I'm sure there will be some really ugly games (Man City might put six past them) but I think they'll get wins against the teams they are fighting against rather than just getting 0-0 draws. It's simplistic but winning 4-3 and losing 5-0 is better than two 0-0 draws.

As an Everton fan I feel really good. West Brom looked bleak and were down to ten men so don't want to read too much but they are playing much more fluidly in the first couple of games. James seems to have opened the field up a bit for them and there seems more of a plan of attack rather than just hoping for something to happen.
   120. spivey Posted: September 21, 2020 at 09:59 AM (#5977879)
Leeds' xG has been pretty weak. Given that Fulham probably has the worst or second worst defense in the league, I'd expected more from them if they were actually going to compete for mid-table like Wolves did a couple of years ago.

Beyond that, Everton look like the team most likely to break into Top 6 for me. Getting Allan and Doucoure, along with James of course, was nice business for them.
   121. jmurph Posted: September 21, 2020 at 10:31 AM (#5977887)
Yeah I had Everton as my silly pick to finish 4th. I guess I don't really expect that but, sure, I think they'll take a run at it. Was able to see a bit this weekend and they looked good.
   122. jmurph Posted: September 21, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5977909)
So today instead of live Premier League games, NBC Sports is going with a (I think) simulcast talk radio show, and some kind of hockey gaming show. I think we can definitely set aside any notions that this is about scheduling conflicts.
   123. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5977918)
Next weekend's schedule. This is only week 3 so I'm willing to be patient here. What I want to see more than anything is some consistency. I've found figuring out where the games are to be a bit tricky so far. I want there to be some kind of system. Early Saturday on Peacock, 10AM on NBCSN, noon on NBC or whatever.

Saturday 26 September
7:30am ET: Brighton v Man Utd – NBCSN
10am ET: Crystal Palace v Everton – NBCSN
12:30pm ET: West Brom v Chelsea – NBC
3pm ET: Burnley v Southampton – Peacock

Sunday 27 September
7am ET: Sheffield United v Leeds United – NBCSN
9am ET: Spurs v Newcastle United – NBCSN
11:30am ET: Man City v Leicester City - NBC
2pm ET: West Ham v Wolves – Peacock

Monday 28 September
1pm ET: Fulham v Aston Villa – Peacock
3:15pm ET: Liverpool v Arsenal – Peacock
   124. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5977919)
The other thing for me is how this will change if we ever get back to having multiple games at once. In past seasons being able to watch 6 of 10 games would be fine because games would be played simultaneously. Obviously the changes due to COVID and grounds being closed makes things very different in that regard and I assume at some point it will revert to the more ordinary system.
   125. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5977920)
Yikes. Sheffield United DOGSO red in the 12th minute for grabbing the offensive player. Marginal call but looked defensible and not reversed on VAR.

267 fouls of Graelish last year in 36 games (almost 90 minutes every game). That's a foul every 12.5 minutes, almost 7.5 per game. First fouled this year after less than 10 minutes.
   126. spivey Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5977925)
I think that's a super harsh red. It looks like the attacker probably hooked the defender too to kind of get the turn on him. That's one where I'm ok there being a foul, and maybe even a yellow. But it's going both ways and is too much just normal physical jockeying between a CB and a striker for me to give a red.
   127. spivey Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:55 PM (#5977930)
Looks like Spurs will get the default League Cup win against Leyton Orient because Spurs paid for their COVID tests (since League Two doesn't do mandatory testing), and a number of their players had COVID.
   128. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5977939)
I think that's a super harsh red. It looks like the attacker probably hooked the defender too to kind of get the turn on him. That's one where I'm ok there being a foul, and maybe even a yellow. But it's going both ways and is too much just normal physical jockeying between a CB and a striker for me to give a red.
I understand this perspective, but it looked to me like the offensive player had position and would have had a play on the ball with no defender, responded to a grab by the defender, and never ended up grabbing the defender as much as he himself was grabbed. On balance it seems like e defensible red.

The biggest thing to me is position. the offensive player seemed to have it and was grabbed from the side but also from behind.

Ultimately if no red were given I think it would have been hard to reverse on VAR, but I also think reversing the red that was given on VAR would have been an overuse of VAR.
   129. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5977941)
13 penalties now in 18 games. 11 goals.
   130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5977944)
Unless Wolves comes back which seems quite doubtful, we'll have hit 18 games without a draw. We still need two more goals to beat the highest in a 10-game EPL weekend. We're currently at 42.
   131. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5977953)
So we broke the single weekend 10-game goal record of 43 with the 44th goal in the last second of the game. Drawless streak is still alive at 18 and counting. No games until Saturday.
   132. Mefisto Posted: September 21, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5977958)
Must be nice being able to watch soccer games on TV.
   133. spivey Posted: September 21, 2020 at 05:47 PM (#5977960)
I think Podence is going to be really good. He was very dangerous against Spurs in the CL last year, and I think he'll be able to fit in for Jota pretty admirably.
   134. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5977963)
Must be nice being able to watch soccer games on TV.
I don't have a TV.
   135. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 06:34 PM (#5977970)
If draws happen in 22.5% of games (very low, historically, but maybe appropriate in the current environment), the odds of going 18 games without a draw to start the season is about a once-in-a-century event.
   136. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 21, 2020 at 07:18 PM (#5977972)
Peacock is now available on Roku.
   137. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5977981)
In March/April 2019, the EPL went 35 games without a draw.
   138. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2020 at 12:13 AM (#5978003)
Back when soccer was a sport for real men, and there were fewer draws even than there are today...

In the 1890-1891 season there were 16 draws in 132 games (12%). In the 1891-1892 season there were 23 draws in 182 games (13%). As mentioned above, the 1991-1992 season began with 24 draws. The 1890-1891 season ended with 16 draws, so there were actually 40 in a row at one point. At 12% draws, that's unlikely but not super unlikely if you allow it to happen at any point in the season, over many seasons.

It's hard to know how accurate these reports are going back that far, as, for example, matches could easily have been played on a different game than now recorded. Regardless, whether the record 35, 40 or something even bigger, we aren't close to that number yet.
   139. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2020 at 02:32 AM (#5978006)
Well I had a very interesting post where I summed up the most and least percentage of draws in top flight history, but the dog ate my homework.

Summary: The least draws occurred in the 1890s, and the two years listed above were the two years with the least percentage of draws ever. The only year under 20% since the late 1950s is the year we just had, 2018-2019. It was also the second lowest since 1905. The least draws tend to come when scoring is highest. There have been about 15 seasons with under 20% draws, and less than 10 with over 30%, the earliest I think was in the late 60s. 3 EPL years had over 30%, most recently in 1996-1997, which was close to the record high.

Are we in a new era of low draws, considering the crazy 2018-2019 year? Probably not. The last decade has not had a particularly low number of draws. With VAR though, who knows... the season is off to a very unusual start.
   140. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 22, 2020 at 05:34 AM (#5978008)
As mentioned above, the 1991-1992 season began with 24 draws. The 1890-1891 season ended with 16 draws, so there were actually 40 in a row at one point.

I feel like there might have been a few seasons between 1891 and 1991.

Also, if it is a flat 12% (i.e. there is no clustering effect), then 40 in a row is basically mathematically impossible. 0.12^40 is an astronomically small number. You could play games non-stop until the heat death of the universe, and never hit 40 in a row.
   141. frannyzoo Posted: September 22, 2020 at 08:55 AM (#5978015)
You could play games non-stop until the heat death of the universe...


Best description of the English Championship I've ever seen.
   142. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2020 at 09:10 AM (#5978016)
Yes, to fix the mistakes:

As mentioned above, the 1891-1892 season began with 24 games without a draw. The 1890-1891 season ended with 16 games without a draw, so there were actually 40 games in a row without a draw at one point.

That's probably but not necessarily a record, because there was only one other season (besides 1890-1891 and 1891-1892) with below 15% draws, and only a few seasons of below 17% draws.

That's also what is so astounding about 2018-2019. There were only 71 draws in 380 games, or 18.7%. The last decade has seen just under 25% draws per games, so a percentage as low as 18.7% is quite unlikely. Maybe no surprise then that it was the 2nd lowest since 1904-1905. In 2018-2019, both City and Spurs finished with just two draws. Spurs had that very long streak without a draw (32, over 2 years), and the league itself had the long streak without a draw. City finished the season with 30 games without a draw, and started 2019-2020 without a draw, for 31 total. You have to go back to the 1888-1909 era to find streaks as long as that.
   143. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 22, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5978038)
Spurs v Leyton Orient officially called off. No announcement on reschedule vs forfeit yet.
Maybe LO deserve the forfeit (from the Graun)
The Guardian understands that Mansfield plan to lodge a formal complaint with the EFL, arguing that Orient players should have been tested before Saturday’s match given their manager, Ross Embleton, revealed there were a "number of people suffering with illnesses" in his pre-match press conference.

At the time Embleton stressed it was "not a Covid issue for any of us to worry about" and after the game he revealed that as many as "nine players" were struggling to play because of a "bug". Orient’s doctor and head physio conducted regular medical checks and are understood to have felt comfortable the symptoms reported by players were unrelated to Covid-19 until last Friday, when it became apparent a couple of players were suffering from symptoms linked to the virus. As a precaution those players were not involved against Mansfield; they are thought to be among the positive tests.
   144. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 22, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5978046)
Holy hell. How does a "bug" going through a team not trigger all sorts of automatic testing?
   145. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 22, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5978098)
As mentioned above, the 1891-1892 season began with 24 games without a draw. The 1890-1891 season ended with 16 games without a draw, so there were actually 40 games in a row without a draw at one point.

See you said with a draw before. Without a draw is a much different proposition. 0.88^40 is about 0.6%. Which is about 35 zeroes short of 0.12^40.
   146. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 22, 2020 at 05:50 PM (#5978099)
Holy hell. How does a "bug" going through a team not trigger all sorts of automatic testing?

There is a reason this country is headed for lockdown 2: electric boogaloo.
   147. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2020 at 06:07 PM (#5978101)
See you said with a draw before. Without a draw is a much different proposition. 0.88^40 is about 0.6%. Which is about 35 zeroes short of 0.12^40.
I know! But should have been clear from context it was a typo rather than a math mistake. Who ever heard of 40 draws in a row? Pretty sure that would have strangled the Football League dead in its infancy.
   148. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2020 at 01:51 AM (#5978202)
After 110 or so games, home field advantage appears to be slightly down in the EPL.

Over the last 10 years it was about 46.5% home wins, 25% draws, 28.5% road wins

Over the first 110 EPL games behind closed doors it has been about 50 home wins, 20 draws, and 40 road wins. It's really just this year that is mucking things up though. The end of 2019-2020 was very close to average, with 43 / 20 / 29. We've started this year off bizarrely though, with 7 / 0 / 11.
   149. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 23, 2020 at 07:28 AM (#5978210)
Just for Jose, so he will understand my new handle, I present Emo Jose

=)
   150. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 23, 2020 at 08:03 AM (#5978213)
That's excellent. Jose is the gift that keeps on giving (and so is David Squires, he's a hoot).
   151. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 23, 2020 at 08:28 AM (#5978215)
It was mentioned in the gaming thread, but I figure it may be of interest to some here too: FM2020 currently free on Epic Games.
   152. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 23, 2020 at 08:53 AM (#5978218)
TO DARE IS TO DOST
   153. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 23, 2020 at 08:54 AM (#5978219)
FM2020 currently free on Epic Games.


It's just ... free?
   154. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: September 23, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5978226)
Free!
   155. jmurph Posted: September 23, 2020 at 09:24 AM (#5978228)
I recommend FM20 if you don't care too much about work or your family (or if you don't have a family, or a job).

In all seriousness, I got seriously into this one again after not being able to get into previous versions since like 2012ish (they changed some of the game play around that time). I have no idea if that says more about the game or about the fact that, like everyone else, I've been trapped in my house for months and just forced myself to get into it.
   156. spivey Posted: September 23, 2020 at 09:51 AM (#5978232)
I'm jealous. I actually paid money for FM2020 a couple of months back.

It's fun, though having not played one, I didn't appreciate how bare bones some things like the UI is. I've been taking a bit of a break because I accidentally forgot to register one of my players for the second half of the season.
   157. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 23, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5978261)
It's fun, though having not played one, I didn't appreciate how bare bones some things like the UI is. I've been taking a bit of a break because I accidentally forgot to register one of my players for the second half of the season.


*cough* FMRTE *cough*
   158. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 23, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5978264)
Is there an FM type game that would allow me to manage the team but not have to deal with transfers and training and that sort of thing? I just want to manage games and formations and maybe transfers to some degree but FM has always seemed over the top. I gotta send a scout to Paraguay to find a left back? ZZZZZ
   159. jmurph Posted: September 23, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5978267)
FM is customizable, Jose, so you can assign staff to do pretty much everything you don't want to do yourself. It can be time consuming on the front end to set it up the way you like it. I definitely don't deal with training, or assigning scouts (other than specific players I want scouted).
   160. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 23, 2020 at 12:10 PM (#5978270)
When did Daniel Levy turn into Mr. Moneybags?
   161. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 23, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5978272)
FM 2020 question ... in FM 2014, it's useless to have multiple scouts scout the same player ... every scouting report is exactly the same, regardless of the quality of the scout.

Has that changed?
   162. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 24, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5978503)
Surprised no comments yet on Floriana v Flora. Two champions of top leagues facing off. Scoreless at the half.

True, the Maltese Premiere League and the Meistreliiga aren't quite the powerhouse that is the Luxembourg National Division, but did you know Dudelange finished 5th this COVID year? Fola Esch, top of the Division, was eliminated in the first qualifying round.

Ok so clubelo ranks Floriana and Flora as two of the four worst teams remaining in Europe, but the winner will be one game from the group stage.


   163. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 24, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5978508)
jmurph - Hmmm...might be worth checking it out. Is it iPadable or only on a computer?
   164. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 24, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5978543)
Lyon did beat Man City in last year's champions league. But they aren't even in Europe this year, since they finished 7th in France and only the top 6 got into Europe. The team that finished one slot above them, Reims in 6th, has already been eliminated from the Europa qualifying rounds, losing to Fehervar (nee Videoton) of Hungary today.

Nicely done City. Sheesh.
   165. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 24, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5978548)
Klaksvik, of the Faroes, is up 3-0 in the second half of their qualifying round game. With Toshavn (also of the Faroes) eliminated, they will be the least fancied team by elo in the Europa playoff round. Unlike the Flora/Floriana winner (in pens now) who will have to beat Zagreb, Klaksvik will have a much easier game against the Sheriff (Moldova)/Dundalk (Ireland) winner. One of those three teams will be in the group stage, though Sheriff if they make it is unlikely to be the least favored team.
   166. frannyzoo Posted: September 24, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5978549)
UEFA Super Cup delightfully poised after a Sevilla goal to start. I'm usually thinking "who cares?" about this fixture, but events 2020 make this one a bigger deal, imho.
   167. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 26, 2020 at 09:28 AM (#5978899)
I can't believe Manchester United won this game. Brighton were so much better. What in the world was Maupay doing there.
   168. jmurph Posted: September 26, 2020 at 09:30 AM (#5978900)
United look relegation-zone terrible so far. What a gift from Brighton.
   169. jmurph Posted: September 26, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5978901)
Jose/163: there’s a slimmed down version for iPads/phones I believe? Never played it though.
   170. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 09:40 AM (#5978903)
Ridiculous game. United did just about everything wrong, and Brighton looks quite decent, even better than last year where in the end they were probably the 11th best team on then year.

With all of United's defensive subs, they gave up the best two chances in the last 5 minutes, so it completely backfired.

xG won't show it this game, but until the last 10 minutes a draw would have been a pretty fair result. Dunk's OG gave United no xG, but it was very high goal scoring chance. With all Brighton's close calls early, almost all their attempts were pretty low chances--only two were above 0.1 xG--they just had a lot of pretty good shots from low xG positions that just missed.

I think you can throw that all out with the last two wide open chances by Brighton--their two biggest of the game.

edit: if you think my assessment is too favorable to United, MCoA's xG had it much closer than I would have, pretty close to even if Maguire's toe had even glanced the ball. The other systems had Brighton further ahead.
   171. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 26, 2020 at 09:44 AM (#5978904)
They need to sell Pogba. He's utterly wasted here. Either he's unmotivated or misused (or both). I know no team has the money for him, but he was supposed to be a generational midfielder and he's a squad-filler at best now.

United are bad. Mobility at the back is a problem. Midfield is disjointed.
   172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5978906)
United was just as bad in the first game. Actually the first game was probably worse, since Brighton is almost certainly better than Palace, and United was on the road here.

The came was so nuts I forgot that I was rooting for the non-draw streak to continue. Even more ridiculous since there were wild swings in the chance of the game ending in a draw in the last 5 minutes.
   173. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5978909)
This is probably overreacting to 2 games plus one goal, but Everton are looking real good this year.
   174. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:16 AM (#5978910)
Biff I came to say basically the same thing. I’m biased but after several years of plodding football this has been a joy to watch.

The United game, I’m curious about the xG. I only saw the second half but if you hit the post/crossbar five times that seems like it would be shots that drove that number up. The chance for I think Trossard where he hit the ball right at DeGea was a great one I thought and United did nothing in the portion of the game that I saw other than the penalty.
   175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:19 AM (#5978911)
I forgot that Brighton tailed off a lot the second half of last year. Still, I would have put them in a group of teams in the group from 11-15, probably also behind Sheffield United and Burnley. That's where they were expected to be agan, coming into this year. So far they look even better than that.
   176. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5978913)
Naturally, 15 minutes after that comment Everton get undone by a set piece.
   177. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5978916)
I know not every team can 'afford' (in terms of how he plays) a player like James, but it's kind of unbelievable that he went for so cheap. That pass just now to release Richarlison was great.

If this gets called a pen it's even worse than the pen called at the end of the Spurs game last Sunday. OK, good, it didn't.
   178. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:35 AM (#5978917)
The United game, I’m curious about the xG. I only saw the second half but if you hit the post/crossbar five times that seems like it would be shots that drove that number up. The chance for I think Trossard where he hit the ball right at DeGea was a great one I thought and United did nothing in the portion of the game that I saw other than the penalty.


xG is based on the position of the players when the shot is taken. Hitting the bar has nothing to do with it, and generally it's easy to overrate shots that hit the woodwork, or certainly those that go in. Except for that one very good chance that hit the inside of the post, I don't think the shots that hit the woodwork were high xG shots.

That ball straight at de Gea was one of the highest of the game--it, along with the late goal by Brighton, were their two highest chances that I referred to above.

Rashford's goal was in the second half (it was high xG). Their other chances came in the 74th/75th, and they had a goal called out for offside, by inches (Rashford was inches ahead of the ball when it was played to him for a tap in). That won't count for xG of course, but it does show Untied were doing things.

By understat's xG, which was least favorable to United, the second half was even until the last two big chances. Those two chances were huge though, and in many games would be the difference between a win and a loss.
   179. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5978918)
The handball rule (and/or the way refs interpret it) is ####### ridiculous.
   180. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5978919)
Another ridiculous handball penalty. At least the one late in the United game was controversy free. Imagine if they had called this one in the 97th minute.

We've had almost one penalty per game now.
   181. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5978920)
xG is based on the position of the players when the shot is taken. Hitting the bar has nothing to do with it, and generally it's easy to overrate shots that hit the woodwork, or certainly those that go in. Except for that one very good chance that hit the inside of the post, I don't think the shots that hit the woodwork were high xG shots.


I know the defining point is where the player is, it just seemed like a lot of those chances were really good. As you say it’s possible that because they hit the woodwork they looked like better chances than they were.
   182. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:48 AM (#5978922)
For me (again biased on this one) that’s a penalty. I’m sympathetic to Ward but he’s making his body bigger by extending his arm away from his body. While I’m sure he wasn’t doing it intentionally I’d rather see that given than not given. If he sticks his foot out trying to get the ball and misses but accidentally trips the player we all agree that’s a penalty, this is much the same thing. I don’t see how what the Brighton player did was any different. He jumped and used his arm to get leverage and the ball hit his arm. Ward was sticking his arm out to balance himself and the ball hit his arm. I don’t think either player was trying to get the ball (I’ll concede you can argue intent on the BHA player).

The biggest frustration for me though, and Biff said it right, is the rule is just so poorly explained. it is pretty clear that no one, fans, refs, players, managers, has any clue exactly WHAT qualifies as a handball. This is made worse by the RIDICULOUS double standard where even slightly grazing a fingernail for an attacker is a handball. That’s obviously a failure of the rule not of the way it is called.

As a rule I come down on handballs not given enough. It’s football, there is one fundamental rule; “don’t use your hands.”
   183. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 10:55 AM (#5978924)
182--that's definitely the philosophy behind the rule. I don't personally agree with it for plays like the one today, but it is the intent of the rule, so it's defensible to call the one today if that's how people want the rule to work. As the announcers mentioned, the Liindelof one against United was similar, and I think there was at least one or two more this year that were also called under similar circumstwances.

Have to very much disagree on the Brighton penalty earlier today. The player moved his hand toward the ball in an attempt to get his arm in the way, and had his arm raised shoulder level or higher, in an unnatural position. Basically checks the box on all the things you would generally would look for. The one thing that would go against calling the penalty was how close the defender was to Maguire. That would almost certainly have been called a penalty under the old rules, where the one against Palace almost certainly would not have.
   184. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 11:33 AM (#5978927)
16 penalties in 18 games so far, including the one today. 14 scored.
   185. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5978934)
Watched the extended highlights. In the Brighton game, the one against the crossbar in the 76th minute was also considered a pretty big chance at 0.27 xG by understat. That seems pretty high... Infogol had it at 0.21 and MCoA must have had it at even less. The one against the inside of the post in the 6th minutes was 0.21 by Infogol and 0.33 by understat. Aside from the two chances late (and the penalty, if you count that), those two off the woodwork in the 2nd half were Brighton's two best chances. All other chances were under 0.1 xG, so pretty small.

Brighton's advantage came a little bit on volume and a lot on the late chances.
   186. ckash Posted: September 26, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5978964)
When Chelsea came out in those hideous Crystal Palace knockoff kits I told my wife maybe they'll lose 8-0 and burn the kits. It could actually happen.
   187. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5978968)
Oops there have been 20 games already, not 18. So I think it might be 16 penalties in 20 games. Also, 20 games so far without a draw.
   188. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 26, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5978977)
OK, I don’t WANT that to be a handball because there is no way that’s a handball in any meaningful sense of the word...but doesn’t the rule say that if the ball touches an attackers hand/arm in the build up to a goal regardless of intent or location of the hand that the goal shouldn’t stand?

   189. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5978978)
Announcers said they changed the rule to "immediate run-up".

No-draw streak is over. West Brom: still very bad.
   190. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: September 26, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5978993)
Thanks, I missed that.
   191. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:04 AM (#5979096)
Leeds is a fun team to watch, due to all the running, passing, and generally open play. Hard to see how Sheffield United didn't score though--Leeds gave up some great chances.

By 538, Leeds has been second best in xG in every game, under all the public systems.
   192. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5979101)
This sport is dumb.

Also, beyond any stupid handball rule, it was never a foul that gave them the free kick. Joelinton literally just jumped into Hojbjerg, swan dived, and got the call.
   193. . Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5979102)
So, like termites, replay has now wormed their way into and ruined Premier League soccer.

It's been said here any number of times by now: Despite the temptation, replay in sports can't work and will inevitably make things worse.
   194. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:10 AM (#5979103)
I'd be interested in seeing an analysis of how many goals are scored off of handball penalties vs. the historical average. I realize we may not have great data for this.

But it's just one of those things where it feels like it really could ruin the game. What's annoying is I don't get the sense this problem is anywhere near the same type of issue anywhere but the EPL. It legit has me wondering, you know, why don't I just start watching more Bundesliga.

On a related note, Hoffenheim is really taking it to Bayern in a way I've not seen any team do basically since Flick has been manager. Pressing the #### out of them and really just getting a ton of high xG opportunities
   195. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5979106)
I'm very much against this new handball rule. Happy to get rid of VAR entirely as well. And replay in all sports, really. No amount of replay will make sports decisions perfect. And, it's clearly extremely difficult, for whatever reason, to implement a replay system that only addresses the most egregious on-field mistakes.

538 xG without the penalty was 3.6 to 0.25.
   196. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5979108)
Sad thing is this is probably legitimately Tottenham's best performance since the Ajax leg 2.
   197. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5979109)
Comes with a Newcastle asterisk. I'm kidding, mostly. Newcastle had a few decent games at the end of last year, and looked good against West Ham. But otherwise they've been terrible for a couple years now.
   198. Baldrick Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5979110)
Chelsea knocked out of the 2019-2020 women's FA Cup (they're finishing it up in the fall and then ALSO playing the 2020-2021 cup this year...Covid is weird) by Everton this morning. That follows up on a 1-1 draw with Manchester United in the first fixture of the league season. This is the team who signed Sam Kerr (arguably the best player in the world) last winter and then also signed Pernille Harder (also arguably the best player in the world) this summer.

They scored 9 against Bristol in between the two mediocre performances, but...
   199. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5979111)
I though Mahrez was one of the most one-footed players in the league. He has proven me wrong.
   200. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:36 AM (#5979112)
flip flop
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