Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

OT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020

As we flip the calendar to 2020, there are many things we do not yet know about the year to come. One thing, though, is certain: there will be lots of complaining about VAR. And I for one am looking forward to it.*


*I am not actually looking forward to it.

The Marksist Posted: December 31, 2019 at 04:38 PM | 286 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: ot, soccer

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 2 of 3 pages  < 1 2 3 > 
   101. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5914768)
Couple, maybe 3 goals called back for offside for Leicester, but none were that close.
   102. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 12:00 PM (#5914769)
Well deserved win by Southampton. They are a very solid team right now. Slight favorites over Wolves (in Southampton) next week, and I think that might be underselling them.
   103. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5914771)
Newcastle stole another point, this time away to Wolves. xG 1.7-0.2. We've seen that numerous times this season.
   104. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 12:26 PM (#5914775)
Expected points (per understat): Leicester 35.1; Southampton 34.4. Leicester leads Southampton in the actual table 45 to 28.
   105. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: January 11, 2020 at 12:26 PM (#5914776)
Spurs lineup:

Tottenham Hotspur: Gazzaniga, Sanchez, Alderweireld, Tanganga, Aurier, Winks, Eriksen, Rose, Lucas Moura, Alli, Son.
Subs: Vertonghen, Lamela, Vorm, Dier, Lo Celso, Sessegnon, Skipp.


That's a PL for Tanganga, I think ... I think he'll see some action today.
   106. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: January 11, 2020 at 12:46 PM (#5914779)
PL debut, that is.
   107. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 11, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5914783)
He’s made a couple of nice plays. Been Johnny on the spot a couple of times and did a nice job.
   108. Mefisto Posted: January 11, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5914787)
Maguire's indefinite injury seems to have healed quickly. He's playing today.


I don't know what's going on there. It was originally reported as a muscle tear.
   109. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5914788)
Yeah I saw a similar report not long after you mentioned it. If there was any game you would think they would rest Maguire for if there was any risk, it would likely have been Norwich at home, so it must really have been next to nothing.
   110. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5914789)
Lazio beats Napoli today, probably putting Lazio in the CL next year, with Napoli almost chance now. Those are both a pretty big surprise.
   111. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5914791)
Another win for Liverpool despite some shaky play. Overall they earned it with their first half play, but they barely held on.

After this game, it really might be the case that their odds of going unbeaten are better than their odds of not winning the league.
   112. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 11, 2020 at 02:41 PM (#5914792)
I thought Spurs didn't do too badly today given the injuries and the opposition. They could have been buried in the first half but rallied once Lamela and Lo Celso came on in the second.
   113. frannyzoo Posted: January 11, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5914793)
Down a man for about an hour now, Famalicao have scored at the "other Porto" Boavista. One of the best stories in Europe this year, is it possible Sporting could be out of the top three? Nah, probably not, but it's fun while it lasts.
   114. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 11, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5914804)
Yeah I saw a similar report not long after you mentioned it. If there was any game you would think they would rest Maguire for if there was any risk, it would likely have been Norwich at home, so it must really have been next to nothing.


I dismissed the "OGS is out if they don't win against Norwich" stuff was just random twitter BS, but... maybe not?
   115. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 11, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5914806)
After this game, it really might be the case that their odds of going unbeaten are better than their odds of not winning the league.


It's crazy. This is what they have left;

vsManchester United
@Wolves
@WestHam
vsSouthampton
@Norwich City
vsWestHam
@Watford
vsBournemouth
@Everton
vsCrystalPalace
@Manchester City
vsAstonVilla
@Brighton
vsBurnley
@Arsenal
vsChelsea

@Newcastle

I've highlighted the games I think you could reasonably see them losing. #### happens of course (see; City, Norwich v City, Manchester) but there aren't a lot of games in there that you'd expect them to drop points let alone lose.

I think it becomes an interesting situation. There is every chance they will be looking to clinch the title at Everton or ManCity and depending on what happens the only thing they would have to play for at that point is undefeated. If they get deep in the FA Cup and/or Champions League I think the odds get a lot longer for them (particularly the Champions League) to go undefeated because by the time they reach those final few games they'd be resting people. A lot hinges on how Klopp pursues it. An "invincible" season would be a cherry on the sundae and given that they won the CL last year would have to be viewed as enticing.

One thing that I think makes it more likely they will at least go for it is the first half of the remaining games are very winnable. Wolves and Everton are good enough that playing them away is tricky but realistically you'd pick Liverpool in every game between now and City. If they survive through the City game they will have six games to go to wrap it up and I have to expect there would be a lot of desire to put the pedal down. I think if the games were reversed they'd slip up somewhere with Chelsea, Arsenal, City and then coast home probably dropping another game or two just because they were playing the same lineup they used in the League Cup a few weeks ago.

Thinking it through, that Arsenal game should be a doozy. That's Bears@Dolphins 1985 with the team standing in their way the team trying to remain the only (yeah yeah, Preston North End in like 1472) team to have been undefeated. It would be interesting to see the atmosphere for that one.
   116. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5914825)
Based on how much weight Klopp has put on cups so far, I'd be pretty surprised if he prioritized winning the cup over going undefeated.

Estimated odds of going undefeated: 7-8%
Current odds of not winning the league: 4.5%
Current odds of winning the FA Cup: 15%
   117. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 07:25 PM (#5914828)
MCoA had the Spurs game as even at 1.7 xG apiece. understat and 538 were not nearly as favorable to Spurs... 1.4-1.9 and 1.1-1.8. 538 non-shot xG was a slaughter at 1.1-3.9.

I think I'd put the game as Liverpool having had half a goal advantage, maybe slightly more. That's basically what betting odds would have said coming in also.
   118. spivey Posted: January 11, 2020 at 07:34 PM (#5914831)
I'm not sure that Van Dijk's point blank header wasn't offside, but since it wasn't scored, it counts for xG and would be pretty high. I feel like 1.1 has to be low for Tottenham, Lo Celso's chance was just really good.

Tottenham were so, so much better when they took Rose and Eriksen off. Rose looks like he is probably just done being an impact player, and Eriksen's so bad now. If you give him time on the ball, he can be ok at times, and he still gets his km covered during the match, but it's all meaningless, because he runs around, but then when he gets to the guy on the ball, he's not actually pressuring them, and he won't put a tackle in when he runs to where a tackle needs to be made.

The last 30 minutes of the match really made me think Spurs maybe aren't that far off being really good again, if they can just nail a couple of signings (which probably won't be cheap, and therefore won't be done). The team needs a real DM who can also pass, and a fullback. I thought Tanganga was pretty solid, and although he bit on Firmino's feint... Firmino is quite good, and that whole movement started because Winks has no ####### idea where he's standing at any moment in time.

Sanchez and Toby is still a good CB pairing and should be for a couple of years, and they compliment each other really well. Beyond that, for the last 30 minutes, we had a team that didn't just look old, slow, and apathetic. Lamela is always going to play for the badge, and Lo Celso plays hard too. So does Tananga, and he's actually as fast as a fullback needs to be. And, I love Harry Kane, but he's been two steps off the pace for a while, which has an impact on the team.
   119. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 11, 2020 at 07:43 PM (#5914836)
Eriksen's sulking because he wants sold/paid, right?
   120. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5914838)
understat had Lo Celso's chance at 0.55 xG. The other systems may have had it higher.
   121. Mefisto Posted: January 11, 2020 at 07:53 PM (#5914840)
It looks to me as if Spurs could challenge for a top 4 spot if they can just identify the correct midfield (Ndombele and Lo Celso, plus either Winks or Sissoko) and get them all healthy. And they need to do a lot better at keeping the ball than they did in the first half, though I have to think the right midfield would help with that.
   122. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:07 PM (#5914843)
Top 4 betting odds:
Leicester: 85%
Chelsea: 69%
Man U: 23.5%
Spurs: 13%
Arsenal: 4%
Wolves: 3.5%
Everton: 1%
Sheffield U: 1%

Those last 4 probably can't make top 4, but any of them could get a Europa League spot next year.

Watford at Bournemouth is a relegation 6-pointer. After Norwich who is 90+% now to be relegated and Villa, who is 50/50, these are the two most likely to go down. Watford is considered a significantly better team right now, but that's almost exactly counteracted by HFA per the odds. A win for either side would be huge.
   123. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:09 PM (#5914846)
Maybe that's all true about Spurs, but right now is the low point of the season for them as far as top-4 odds. It's a strange time to be encouraged, unless you are looking to next year.
   124. spivey Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:16 PM (#5914847)
Top 4 will be very unlikely unless key moves are made in the January window. Between injuries and the number of teams between Tottenham and #4, it's just hard to see. Tottenham brought the game to Liverpool for the last half hour and it was pretty much all from guys who should be around next year, and even missing a couple of their best players. I mainly want to see a blueprint for a good, hungry team that can be competitive on multiple fronts. I feel better about that now than I have after the last several matches.
   125. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:20 PM (#5914848)
Rose looks like he is probably just done being an impact player, and Eriksen's so bad now


Impact player, sure, but he was also coming back from injury and looked rusty as hell. At least he still seems to care when he's on.

Eriksen? Just cut bait at this point, for anything, to anyone. Just completely remove any temptation for Jose to ever put him on the field again.

Supposedly Spurs are close to signing Gedson Fernandes to an 18 month loan deal ... which is exactly what they need, since he's 18 and has played a total 400 minutes of competitive football for Benfica, so he's obviously ready to help.

But it seems Spurs did pip West Ham to the signing, so it's got that going for it ...
   126. Mefisto Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5914850)
MCOA has a short discussion of Fernandes here.
   127. spivey Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5914851)
Impact player, sure, but he was also coming back from injury and looked rusty as hell. At least he still seems to care when he's on.

He's looked rusty and slow all season. I love what he's done for the team in his career, but when we're playing one of him or Jan at LB, we are constantly at risk to be beaten for pace down the left wing. And given that Aurier basically gives zero ##### about defensive positioning, it's just bad news all over.
   128. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 11, 2020 at 09:10 PM (#5914855)
Maybe that's all true about Spurs, but right now is the low point of the season for them as far as top-4 odds. It's a strange time to be encouraged, unless you are looking to next year.


The limit of my optimism if I were a Spurs fan right now would be optimism that they'll still be in the Premier League when they fire Mourinho.
   129. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 11, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5914856)
Leeds and West Brom are still big favorites for promotion, despite slipping up a little today. Brentford with another big win is now close to 40% themselves.

538 loves Brentford and has them as 2nd favorites to advance despite being 6 points behind Leeds and 7 behind West Brom. Also has them as better than Norwich, Villa, and Newcastle, and as good as Bournemouth and West Ham. That's probably a bit optimistic.
   130. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5914902)
Bournemouth gives one up on a poor clearance by the (edit: young) GK trying to play out from the back. (edit: credit to Watford's press, but still.)

More on Southampton: they are one of 3 teams to start the second half of the schedule with 3 straight games against teams in the expected top 9, and they beat all 3, 2 on the road. (Spurs, Leicester, Chelsea). The other two to face 3 straight are Newcastle and Brighton, and they each had 2 losses and a draw.
   131. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 12, 2020 at 10:28 AM (#5914905)
Bournemouth is officially in a bad position now, down 0-2. They are going to need several points over their next 5 games (Norwich, Brighton, Villa, Sheffield, Burnley) before their schedule gets much harder. Their problem will be that most of the teams ahead of them are at least as good as them and probably better, with the notable exception of Newcastle (and maybe Villa, but Bournemouth needs to assume they finish ahead of Villa anyway or they are very likely ######).
   132. spivey Posted: January 12, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5914908)
I'm watching a bit of this Fiorentina/SPAL game and it's so bad.
   133. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 12, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5914922)
if they can just identify the correct midfield (Ndombele and Lo Celso, plus either Winks or Sissoko)
Sissoko had knee surgery and so out until at least April, and probably won't be completely fit before the year ends.
   134. Mefisto Posted: January 12, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5914926)
I missed that. I guess it's Winks then.
   135. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 12, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5914929)
That Watford win was huge, and the game was not close. Current relegation odds:

Norwich: 90%

Villa: 54.5%
Bournemouth: 51.5%

Watford: 24.5%
West Ham: 21.5%
Burnley: 20%
Newcastle: 19.5%

Brighton: 10%

Southampton 4%
Palace: 3.5%

Everton: 1%
Sheffield: 1%
Arsenal: 0.5%
   136. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 12, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5914939)
5 minutes left in extra time in the SuperCopa final. Real Madrid just misses on a goal mouth scramble and it ends up with Morata breaking away for the possible winner, but he's pulled down just outside the box with the most cynical of DOGSOs. Red of course, but with 5 minutes left it was the right play by the defender.

Much pushing and shoving ensued, so many players get yellows too.

edit: sadly Real Madrid won in pens.
   137. spivey Posted: January 13, 2020 at 08:55 AM (#5915065)
The way that Barcelona is handling replacing Valverde right now is comical. I think they probably dodged a bullet not bringing in Xavi though. I don't follow the Qatar league but my understanding is the team he took over was a powerhouse and they've regressed a lot this year. And now there's a lot of speculation about Poch, though he managed for Espanyol and said he would never manage Barcelona.

In Italy, some sad news as two of the bright young talents in the league both tore their ACL yesterday (in the same match). Demiral, who had recently benched De Ligt and been part of some Leicester rumors, is one of the best young CBs in the world from when I've seen him. Plays with a real edge, which is great for a CB. A Vidic type defender. And Zaniolo, a promising winger for Roma, also tore his ACL.
   138. ckash Posted: January 13, 2020 at 07:47 PM (#5915392)
Valverde out! Setien in. Maybe Barca will be an attacking team again. Interesting to see how they replace Suarez - assume Griezmann moves to the middle. Dembele should be back in a month but I'm hoping Fati runs with the left side.
   139. Dale Sams Posted: January 13, 2020 at 10:14 PM (#5915449)
Re: Rooney at Derby

I saw some of the FA Cup game and I couldn't even tell what position he was playing. Seemed to be RB at times...or Silver Alert*. A spot i played a few times

*Old Man Wanders Around.
   140. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5915551)
Why is Barcelona not in on blue chip managers in recent years? I don't understand the politics there at all.
   141. spivey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:49 AM (#5915602)
I think Barcelona could have had a blue chip manager this year if they were willing to wait until the offseason, like Bayern is doing. In fact, I think that's how Setein's contract is structured is to let them do that. They do seem to have a bit of a predilection for ex-Barca players though.
   142. ckash Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5915613)
I think Barca has an unwritten rule that only ex-players can manage the team. The Tata Martino experience turned them off managers who don't have the Barca DNA or any familiarity with La Liga. Assuming that Setien is an exception because he's been around La Liga a while and he's okay being the placeholder for Xavi.
   143. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: January 14, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5915750)
C'mon Boro!
   144. frannyzoo Posted: January 15, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5916164)
Of course I'm writing only because the rule goes against Wolves here against the ever-despised United, but the "inadvertent handball" rule as written must, must, must be changed ASAP.
   145. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 15, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5916262)
I don't know. It's a little off-putting to have the assist made with the arm. If his arm hadn't been there, there would have been no pass and no goal.

Maybe these should be allowed as goals (really not sure how I feel), but do you feel the same about the arm actually scoring the goal inadvertently, or is that a bridge to far?
   146. Mefisto Posted: January 15, 2020 at 07:08 PM (#5916270)
JMHO, but this is one rule I fully support.
   147. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:30 PM (#5916298)
I would have no problem with a goal being scored like that. If there is no intent or the arm isn’t away from the body or in an “unnatural position” then I don’t think it should be a hand ball.
   148. Mefisto Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:51 PM (#5916304)
In my view, one of the downsides to VAR as implemented in the EPL is that it leaves too much discretion in the referee. That defeats the purpose of VAR and results in wasted time for no good reason. Having a bright line rule on the handball makes it possible for VAR to function as it should. If we give back discretion to the refs, then we should eliminate VAR for those calls.
   149. Mefisto Posted: January 16, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5916394)
I guess Eriksen's going to Inter.
   150. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 16, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5916703)
I guess Eriksen's going to Inter.


Ashley Young definitely is (pending a medical).
   151. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 16, 2020 at 05:57 PM (#5916723)
Another article making the classic mistake of projecting the second half of the season solely on the basis of one measure of first-half performance (two, if you count xGD and actual GD as two measures). The article has the caveat of "barring a change in form", but that's not enough to justify the approach it takes.

I like xG as much as the next person, but let's be clear here: it's one measure of past performance. In order to make realistic projections you have to assume that over and under performers of xGD (and actual GD) itself are likely going to regress a bit. How you determine who is or isn't an overperformer/underperformer is partly an art, but is based on, among many other things, looking at xG itself over a longer time period. We aren't totally blind about which teams are likely to perform better or worse in the second half (i.e., have a change in form).

Last year in the EPL, for example, the worst team in the first half was Burnley, and Manchester United had an xGD of about 0. Watford performed like a very good (much better than average) team. None of those were likely to continue throughout the year, and the betting odds reflected that.

Tottenham this year is projected by betting odds to finish much higher than with 0 xGD. West Ham is projected higher than the worst team in the EPL. Sheffield is projected lower than what they have done on the field so far.

   152. Mefisto Posted: January 17, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5916851)
Baldrick, are you planning an analysis of the NWSL draft and associated player moves? If so, be sure to link it here. Thanks.
   153. spivey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:16 AM (#5916858)
Sounds like the AFCON could move back to the winter, which would not be good for Liverpool.
   154. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5917006)
This Schalke/Gladbach game seems to have an inordinate number of turnovers caused by players dribbling excessively. Then players don't seem to be finding the space to play the ball into the way I'm used to seeing in the EPL. Is this common for the Bundesliaga? These teams? Maybe it's just the way this game has gone. It doesn't seem like high-quality soccer.
   155. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 17, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5917016)
Assuming Gladbach goes on to lose today, I think they'll no longer be odds on for CL next year.
   156. Dale Sams Posted: January 18, 2020 at 02:02 AM (#5917122)
If anyone cares about this kind of thing...on Peter Crouch's podcast they discussed 'What a Captain does'.

It came out that the team captain hands out the complimentary tickets and if a player needs more, he'll help haggle *among the other players*. NOW....I was mind-blown and I think i got the gist of it, cause the other two Brits on the pod were as incredulous as I was. I only know some of the inner workings of a baseball system, so that's what I turn to when I think of this sort of thing. Both myself and the other two guys reactions were..."A billion dollar enterprise relies on THE TEAM CAPTAIN to hand out complimentary tickets and deal with players that need more??? And they do this by trading among each other?

As we all probably know...baseball has a staff member do this sort of thing, and ####### Mookie Betts doesn't have to ask JBJ if he can have his tickets for the next game!

It also came out that the team captain notes all the player infractions like being late and informs the players of fines. Baseball couldn't do this cause there's not even a team captain for each team. FFS as if players don't have enough on their plate already? Hire a ####### guy to do this...don't make your team captain do it.

FInally....apparently David Beckham used his clout whenever he was England captain to bring in a lot of sponsors and he decided it would all get divvied up among all the England players.

AGAIN....comparing to a baseball team: I have a hard time seeing Dustin Pedroia securing a meeting with the Dunkin Donuts CEO to sponsor the Red Sox...and then it being up to him how that money is distributed.


Bottom line: And i was thinking this already, before i heard all this...it seems to me that the Professional Footballers Association doesn't have a lot of power. We saw late payments with Bolton and Bury...Bury get dissolved...there doesn't seem to be any desire to get team owners to HAVE to reinvest money in the team...stuff like that.


Edit: They didn't even get into stuff like 'be the one to talk to the ref if you're the pitch captain' or 'welcome new players' 'talk players out of wanting to leave' Sorry...the last two are FM stuff.
   157. manchestermets Posted: January 18, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5917143)
For the record, Bury haven't actually been dissolved at this point. It's still possible, but they're in a kind of suspended animation at the moment. The last court appearance was adjourned while negotiations can take place regarding the outstanding tax bill that they have and there's a prospective buyer. There's also a potential phoenix club who've applied for admission to a lower league for next season. Watch this space, really.
   158. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: January 18, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5917144)
fackin' Spurs ...
   159. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 18, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5917148)
IF it hadn't been for Southampton's terrible start to the season, which was mostly not supported by their ok xG numbers, they'd be a candidate for a top 4 spot right now.
   160. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 18, 2020 at 10:50 AM (#5917150)
Did the Bournemouth player get the rare red + penalty (in the DOGSO=yellow era) due to an intentional handball at the goalmouth? I didn't see it.

If so, that's such a terrible play in a must win game, especially early in the game.
   161. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 18, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5917152)
5 goals in the first 16 minutes of the second half of Augsburg-Dortmund.
   162. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 18, 2020 at 11:23 AM (#5917156)
Game's turned for Wolves. Pulled one back on a giveaway and now a penalty via VAR to draw level. Looked like the right call.
   163. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 18, 2020 at 11:29 AM (#5917157)
Sheffield United get very lucky not to have a penalty called on them via VAR. About the only thing you could say was that Pepe already lost the ball before the contact.
   164. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 18, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5917158)
Wolves get a third. Inadvertent handball/shoulder way back in the buildup was not determined to rule it out. Either because it was a shoulder or it was too far back. Only VAR knows.
   165. Richard Posted: January 18, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5917160)
Pepe would have had a pen if he hadn’t started his dive before O’Connell got there. The right decision.

We nick a point, Wednesday get humped 5-0 at home, and Leeds’ collapse is happening again. Happy days.
   166. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 18, 2020 at 02:27 PM (#5917192)
Newcastle with the smashiest grabbiest win of them all this season.
   167. Mefisto Posted: January 18, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5917205)
Ok, but CP gets the smashiest grabbiest tie.
   168. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 18, 2020 at 05:15 PM (#5917213)
Newcastle with the smashiest grabbiest win of them all this season.

At this point, isn't that just called 'Saturday.'
   169. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 01:44 AM (#5917288)
538 has Liverpool's odds of going undefeated at around 10%. Hard to say what the actual odds are right now, because you can't bet against it anywhere, but maybe around 15%? Not even sure it if it is that high if you factor in the likelihood of injuries.

They have a better chance of being the first EPL team to win all 19 at home. 538 has that at about 18%, and maybe it's a little higher in reality.
   170. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 19, 2020 at 02:10 AM (#5917291)
Odds I am seeing for Liverpool going unbeaten are all around 5/1. Obviously not worth it at that number. But not really surprising, since you always get awful odds on those kind of futures bets.
   171. Mefisto Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:49 AM (#5917314)
Their odds of staying unbeaten today look pretty good.
   172. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:51 AM (#5917315)
Right. To estimate realistic betting market expectations, you usually need to be able to see what odds people are being given on both sides of the bet, for and against. Here I don't think there is an "against" line anywhere.

Looks like at least one site you can get it for at 15% (1 in 6.5), and 20% for Liverpool to win all home games (1 in 5).

Another interesting one is whether Liverpool will reach the 100 point mark. Currently that's just under 50/50.
   173. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 08:54 AM (#5917316)
Their odds of staying unbeaten today look pretty good.
They do indeed, but it's under 90% according to the betting market. It's a much more risky day for them losing their streak of home wins (32.5%). 67.5% win, 21% draw, 11.5% loss.

I fully expect Liverpool to win, but it's no guarantee.
   174. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:37 AM (#5917322)
Credit to Leicester and especially Barnes on that goal, but multiple levels of bad play by Burnley allowed it to happen.

Also looked like it maybe should have been a foul for coming through the man to win the ball.
   175. Baldrick Posted: January 19, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5917326)
First big game for Sam Kerr in England, in Arsenal-Chelsea. She's got a goal, but the other two Chelsea goals from Beth England and Sophie Ingle have been even more impressive. 0-3 to Chelsea at halftime, which would bring them within a point of Arsenal and Man City for the title--with a game in hand.
   176. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 19, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5917333)
So here is another problem with VAR. I’ve been watching the last five minutes of this Leicester game waiting to find out if there will be a review of the Ben Mee handball. It just sucks me out of the moment so badly.
   177. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5917335)
Nick Pope didn't look great on the Leicester goal, but he has come up big since, with a great save plus a penalty save.

Announcers say he may be challenging Pickford for England #1 soon, but FBRef's new keeper stats (from statsbomb) show him as worst starter in the league at shot-stopping this year, by a fairly big margin no less.
   178. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 19, 2020 at 10:57 AM (#5917338)
VAR was completely useless today. Mee should have had a penalty on the handball and I don’t understand why the foul that Aunt Bea noted on the Barnes goal wasn’t given. That was clear.

I just hate replay so ####### much.
   179. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5917347)
All four teams on the relegation bubble (Watford, Burnley, Newcastle, West Ham) outperformed expectation this weekend. That's bad news for the bottom 3, even though two of those also did ok this weekend (Norwich and Villa). Bournemouth has been on a straight downward trajectory: 16 points in their first 11 games, and 4 points in their last 12 games.
   180. Mefisto Posted: January 19, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5917348)
I don't think the foul on Cork was reviewable. At least, they didn't seem to review it. My first thought was that it was a foul, but on replay I wasn't so sure.
   181. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5917349)
I don't think the foul on Cork was reviewable.
Was this the one in the buildup to the Leicester goal? If so, I'm almost positive it's reviewable.

I didn't watch it closely enough to have a strong opinion on whether it was a foul.

edit: ok I watched it now. I think it's a foul but if the VAR standard is clear/obvious I can see why it wasn't overturned. Cork turns the ball upfield so he's not really between the ball and Praet when Praet makes the challenge. He also reaches out in front of Praet to try to get back between Praet and the ball, and it's possible Praet got their first. That said, Cork always had control of the ball, and Praet's challenge was a guaranteed to create a ton of contact with Cork on the follow though, mostly from behind, so I think that's usually, and properly given as a foul. I don't know that it is always given though.
   182. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 19, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5917350)
VAR was completely useless today.

FWIW, it did its' job yesterday in the Augsburg - Dortmund game. Dortmund played a beautiful through ball (Augsburg got burned a few times playing a really high line yesterday, not sure what they were thinking). Refs let the attack play on, which resulted in a simple cutback and tap-in, before flagging it offside. VAR showed it was onside, and the goal was given. Pretty much the way it should work.
   183. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 19, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5917351)
Bournemouth look helpless right now. I just don’t see where the recovery comes from there but there is a long way to go.

And I’m still a believer in Norwich. I think they are good enough to escape. The problem is I feel like the bottom half of the EPL is better than it’s been for a long time. There don’t seem to be any really terrible teams. Bournemouth are playing terribly but they played well enough in the first third of the season that it seems clear they have the talent to pull out of it. I think the bigger problem for Norwich is going to be getting teams above them to drop the requisite points.
   184. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5917353)
Doesn't that have to be a foul? De Gea is not good at that play though--multiple times it's been an issue.
   185. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 19, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5917354)
It had to be a foul, and it was. VAR to the rescue! *ducks*
   186. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5917357)
Gorgeous play by United to set up a great chance for Pereira. That was it. They are never getting another chance like that. Game over.
   187. Mefisto Posted: January 19, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5917359)
184 is right about DeGea, but he sure is good at reaction saves.
   188. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5917364)
This game should be about 3 or 4 to 1. Despite all Liverpool's possession and dangerousness going forward, they've still given up a couple big chances.
   189. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 19, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5917369)
Liverpool had the first 11 corners, Manchester United the last 5. Shots were only 16 to 9, and possession 53-47. It seemed much worse than that though, and I think xG will show that it was.

edit: 538's xG had it as Liverpool being a solid winner, but not exactly dominant, especially if you don't take into account the Salah goal in the last minute where United had nobody back. 2.5-1.3, which means the scoreline flattered Liverpool after all.
   190. Mefisto Posted: January 19, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5917377)
Honestly, I thought United played that about as well as they could have under the circumstances.
   191. spivey Posted: January 19, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5917382)
Not a good weekend for most of the teams going for Top 4.
   192. manchestermets Posted: January 19, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5917396)
Honestly, I thought United played that about as well as they could have under the circumstances.


Yeah - teams are currently lining up to be beaten by Liverpool, so we were going to have to take our turn sooner or later. They did better than I expected to the extent that they clearly worried Liverpool, and might have grabbed an equaliser with the run of the green - Martial in particular should have scored that chance he blazed over. Not being any further behind Chelsea than we were yesterday morning is a good outcome from the weekend, and if Leicester's bubble has burst it might be easier to get past them than Chelsea.

Still, Rashford's apparently out for three months. I wonder what would happen if it was a time of the season in which it was possible for the club to take some kind of action to mitigate the loss, but unfortunately I guess we'll never know...
   193. Mefisto Posted: January 19, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5917402)
You should be glad not to know as long as Ed Woodward is in charge. And besides, they need midfielders even more than another forward (which we had until we let him go to Inter over the summer)
   194. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 20, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5917632)
Atalanta is leading Serie A in xGD, but if they go on to lose today, they are in serious danger of not making top 4. They are falling too far behind Juventus, Inter, and Lazio, and though they are nearly level with Roma, it becomes somewhat of a crapshoot if they finish above them on the year, since Roma is also a quite decent team.

Speaking of xGD, Lazio is near the top of Serie A in xGD, but that's in large part on the strength of their penalty differential (+11 in 19 games, 13 for and 2 against). That's a record that would put even Manchester United to shame (+8 in 23 games), close to doubling them up on a per game basis!

edit: pretty tough loss for Atalanta, considering they were at home against bottom dwellers SPAL.
   195. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 20, 2020 at 05:08 PM (#5917649)
The Championship seem to be heating up at the top. WBA (lost today) and Leeds have stumbled a bit. Brentford and Fulham are not far behind, and now Forest can pull within 3 of the top with a win in their game in hand tomorrow.

538 likes all those teams except Forest, who they think are not very good. Good or no, they face Brentford, Leeds, and West Brom all within the next 4 weeks, so a lot could be decided soon. The only other matchup between the top 5 teams in the next few weeks is Brentford/Leeds.
   196. manchestermets Posted: January 20, 2020 at 08:08 PM (#5917687)
None of them are very good. In terms of how much fun the games are to watch, the Championship is poor this year. It's as if all the teams are suddenly coached by Tony Pulis.
   197. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 12:25 AM (#5917713)
West Brom, Leeds, and Brentford all have excellent actual GD (+19, +19, +23), but the betting odds heavily favors the first two, in part because they were larger favorites coming into the year (Leeds especially, along with Fullham), and also in part because they are currently ahead of Brentford in the table.

538's xGD is high on Leeds (+28, and +26 per infogol) and Brentford (+20, and +24 per infogol) and very low on West Brom (+8, and +8 per infogol). Combine that with the fact that West Brom and Leeds have faded a bit over the last several weeks while Brentford has turned it on a bit (ELO-based systems favor recency, and 538 favors recency much more heavily than traditional ELO) and 538 is very high on Brentford and low on West Brom. Everything else is pretty similar to betting odds. Neither 538 not betting odds like Forest. Despite a decent actual GD, Forest only has a slight positive xGD (+3, and +1 per infogol), and is negative on non-shot xGD (-6).

Outside of Leeds and Brentford, there are no standouts in xGD. West Brom, Hull, Stoke, Fulham, Wednesday, Preston, and Millwall are all in the black, but nothing to write home about.

Odds of promotion (betting, with 538 in paren)

Leeds 83 (78)
West Brom 75 (55)
Brentford 44 (62)
Fulham 31 (33)
Forest 17 (14)
Wednesday 11 (8)
Swansea 9 (8)
Preston 7 (6)
Millwall 6 (9)
Bristol 4 (7)
Field 13 (20, but 5 for Hull due to their decent xGD)
   198. spivey Posted: January 21, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5917898)
It's been a tough season being a Tottenham fan. But the good news is this: our starting CBs aren't Mustafi and Sideshow Bob.
   199. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5917905)
In a "must win" game (per Arteta), Arsenal have given up a pen, received a red, and have 0 shots at half time.
   200. Mefisto Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5917909)
Flip.
Page 2 of 3 pages  < 1 2 3 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dock Ellis
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogAstros manager rumors: Brad Ausmus joins Dusty Baker, Buck Showalter, John Gibbons as candidates for
(25 - 12:33pm, Jan 28)
Last: Mayor Blomberg

NewsblogNicholas Castellanos deal with Reds | MLB.com
(40 - 12:31pm, Jan 28)
Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...)

NewsblogMLB Umpires to Explain Replay Review Decisions Via Microphone for 2020 Season
(15 - 12:31pm, Jan 28)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogESPN is reportedly removing Jessica Mendoza from Sunday Night Baseball
(12 - 12:28pm, Jan 28)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogStarling Marte, D-backs trade | MLB.com
(34 - 12:26pm, Jan 28)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread 2020
(773 - 12:22pm, Jan 28)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogRyan Thibs’ Hall of Fame Tracker
(1462 - 11:59am, Jan 28)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogPosnanski: Baseball 100 Rules
(459 - 11:57am, Jan 28)
Last: base ball chick

NewsblogDustin Pedroia and the Pricey Guarantees of MLB Contracts
(7 - 11:49am, Jan 28)
Last: base ball chick

NewsblogCubs expressing interest in free agent second baseman Scooter Gennett
(4 - 11:18am, Jan 28)
Last: eric

Gonfalon CubsBeing cheap is not a plan
(65 - 10:45am, Jan 28)
Last: Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020
(286 - 10:29am, Jan 28)
Last: the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB).

NewsblogFortified White Sox say they’re ready to contend again
(18 - 9:48am, Jan 28)
Last: My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto

NewsblogClass action lawsuit filed against MLB, Astros, Red Sox on behalf of DraftKings players
(12 - 9:36am, Jan 28)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

Hall of Merit2021 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(160 - 8:58am, Jan 28)
Last: progrockfan

Page rendered in 0.6103 seconds
46 querie(s) executed