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Tuesday, December 31, 2019

OT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020

As we flip the calendar to 2020, there are many things we do not yet know about the year to come. One thing, though, is certain: there will be lots of complaining about VAR. And I for one am looking forward to it.*


*I am not actually looking forward to it.

The Marksist Posted: December 31, 2019 at 04:38 PM | 551 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: ot, soccer

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   201. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5917913)
Two injury time goals for Newcastle this time to draw level with Everton?
edit: 94th and 96th minute. Newcastle is completely ludicrous this year.

edit: xG was 2.1-0.7 per 538. I'm guessing most of that 0.7 was in the last 3 minutes.
   202. jmurph Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5917915)
Oh my god Everton, what the hell happened?
   203. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5917916)
Bournemouth and Villa both with huge wins today, over potential rivals for the drop (Brighton is falling into that group now). Both had the short end of xG at home though, so I'm guessing didn't exactly dominate.
   204. spivey Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5917918)
Newcastle is really shithousing their way into the history books this season.
   205. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5917919)
Until the 93rd minute, the xG in the Everton/Newcastle game was 2.05-0.11 (understat).
   206. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5917923)
Oops Chelsea. That's not good.

(bad time to slip)
   207. Mefisto Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5917924)
Everton must have taken lessons from both Arsenal and Chelsea to blow that lead.
   208. Dale Sams Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5917927)
Bruce: #### (looks up 'best cheat tactic of FM20' Youtube clip)...load it....damnnnnn

Edit: Speaking of FM...I see Real Madrid signed my AMC, Reinier.
   209. Dale Sams Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5917928)
Newcastle is really shithousing their way into the history books this season.


Ashley: "This 'score at the last second tactic' is saving me a lot of money. I should just sell all my strikers."
   210. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5917930)
It's true that Newcastle has more points than you might expect considering their underlying xG performance. If they continue at this rate they'll have exceeded expectation by more than any team in the last 5 years (per understat, as far back as their numbers go). But there is a certain EPL team this year that is already ahead of any team's full year performance over the last 5 years...
   211. spivey Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:51 PM (#5917931)
Newcastle is sitting in 13th place, even on points with Arsenal. Their xPoints is 16.5, which is comfortably last place. They're outperforming their xPoints by 13.5, which is outrageous, and yet, still comfortably second in the league.
   212. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5917938)
Abraham had to get out of the way of the ball that was coming right at him. Pretty sure that affected the play. That offside rule is so stupid.
   213. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5917940)
This game is totally ridiculous as well. Chelsea really should be ashamed. Bellerin beat two guys on the wing easily to score all by himself.
   214. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:08 PM (#5917944)
2 shots, 2 goals for Arsenal.
   215. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:15 PM (#5917951)
After today's performance, Chelsea has a higher xPoints than Liverpool per understat. Liverpool has the two games in hand though.
   216. spivey Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:17 PM (#5917952)
I saw it on reddit, who who knows how accurate it is, but Kepa's save percentage is apparently just absolute rubbish. That Bellerin goal is a good example of a goal that a top goalkeeper really should be saving, imo. He didn't hit it that well, and it was with his weak foot.
   217. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5917954)
Per FBRef's statsbomb numbers, he ranks near the bottom of the league in goals saved based on shot location (just behind de Gea).
   218. Dale Sams Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5917956)
Per FBRef's statsbomb numbers, he ranks near the bottom of the league in goals saved based on shot location (just behind de Gea).


Havent seen enough to make an actual determination*....but I wonder if De Gea has got into his own head with the foot saves.

EG: "Quick feet quick feet!! Fuhhhh its not coming at my feet get the hands up ####."

*He's looked great whenever I've happened to see him bar a couple of howlers.


Don't know if anyone saw Forster in the Betfred cup final but he looked like a field player stuck in goal. Worked though.
   219. Dale Sams Posted: January 21, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5917960)
Speaking of keepers...just saw Newcastles second goal...Don't think I've ever seen that. Not sure how he ended up in the goal.
   220. Mefisto Posted: January 21, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5917968)
It's a good thing Kepa distributes the ball so well. /sarcasm
   221. Dale Sams Posted: January 21, 2020 at 07:18 PM (#5918003)
I was trying to think of "softish goals I'd seen recently"....and thought of Newcastles winner against Chelsea....then realized that's the same keep that should have done better today
   222. strong silence Posted: January 21, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5918063)
Kevin De Bruyne is the Magic Johnson of soccer*.


DOGSO. The concept of opportunity needs clarification in the Laws. Abraham had an opportunity to shoot but decided to take another touch. He had the opportunity but Luiz denied him another opportunity. So does opportunity mean opportunities per the Interpretations of the Laws? That wouldn't be fair. Abraham could have taken his opportunity but decided to shoot. In fact, Tammy also "denied" himself an opportunity.

Every thread needs a stats nerd, so thank you Aunt Bea.#

*Iniesta formerly held the title but de Bruyne has received it gloriously.

#Don't forget Bea, that all events in football can't be assigned a numeric value. xG is useful but is unlimited tool.
   223. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:15 PM (#5918101)
DOGSO. The concept of opportunity needs clarification in the Laws. Abraham had an opportunity to shoot but decided to take another touch. He had the opportunity but Luiz denied him another opportunity. So does opportunity mean opportunities per the Interpretations of the Laws? That wouldn't be fair. Abraham could have taken his opportunity but decided to shoot. In fact, Tammy also "denied" himself an opportunity.

I don't understand this. As long as there is still a goal scoring opportunity, I don't see why it should matter if a player passed up an earlier opportunity hoping for a better one. The fact that he could have shot earlier is completely irrelevant.
   224. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5918110)
Within the span of three days, we get the rare DOGSO/red + pen combo twice! I didn't realize how much of a ###### by Luiz that was until I saw the replay just now. He really has to know better. Just make a real attempt for the ball or don't tackle in the box. At best Luiz was going to save less than 20% of a goal even with a non-red foul in the box. In reality probably less, since Abraham was probably not going to score more much more than 90% of the time without a foul (the other defender was coming to back up the play--yeah he almost certainly wouldn't have gotten there but there was some change Abraham would scuff it past the near post or too far to the far post where the other defender could reach it).

That one was a little harsh, since usually if there is any argument that the defender is trying to play the ball, they give him the benefit of the doubt. Luiz's foot wasn't that far from the ball in the end. However. the risk of a red + pen, the ultimate censure, has to be low for Luiz to try that "tackle", and low it was not.

I don't mind the call at all, despite rooting for Arsenal. I wish referees were much harsher on players that don't make any real attempt to play the ball, no matter where on the field it occurs.
   225. jmurph Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:37 AM (#5918156)
I thought Luiz was in a totally fine position to make a play on the ball. At minimum he should have been able to shoulder-to-shoulder it in a way that referees generally refuse to call. Just a terrible play from him.
   226. Mefisto Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:45 AM (#5918272)
   227. frannyzoo Posted: January 22, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5918332)
Ibiza scores in the first ten minutes v. Barca to make it 1-0. I volunteer to help park the bus for the next eighty, particularly as it would include a trip to Ibiza.
   228. spivey Posted: January 22, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5918355)
Ibiza just hit the post and had a point blank follow up after that. I've been watching the match a bit off and on, and Barcelona is being outplayed. I don't think I've seen a single Barcelona shot in the last half hour.
   229. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5918358)
If you want to find out more about UD Ibiza, I recommend a search other than "Ibiza club"
   230. frannyzoo Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5918371)
Jordi Alba's vacation in Ibiza is cut short to sub in with it still UD Ibiza 1-0 almost at the hour.
   231. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5918378)
Just drew level. What happens if its level after 90?
   232. frannyzoo Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5918383)
I gave Griezmann a pass when he left my beloved Atletico for Barca, but this equalizer against Ibiza is a bridge too far. To answer the #231 question, I think they do go to extra time.
   233. frannyzoo Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:52 PM (#5918388)
You're dead to me, pony-tailed French dude. 2-1 Barca. Oh well, on to watching Man U have trouble at Old Trafford v. Burnley.
   234. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5918389)
West Ham isn't able to get the ball in this game against Leicester.

And now Leicester scores. Not much hope for this game to be interesting.
   235. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5918397)
Solskjaer looks a little like a Bagginses. Old Bilbo.
   236. Dale Sams Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5918410)
So if i understand these goalie stats right...Dubravka has been the best goalie in the league? Well....Newcastle would certainly be in 19th place without him.
   237. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5918412)
United hasn't actually struggled to get the ball into the 6. On at least three occasions now they've had a mis-kick from very close.
   238. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5918414)
So if i understand these goalie stats right...Dubravka has been the best goalie in the league?
They are only shot stopping stats, so don't cover everything a goalie does. Probably more importantly, they don't seem to gel that well with many people's more subjective opinions. (Not including myself in this, because I don't feel that qualified to speculate one way or the other.)

edit: also, Dubravka faces many more shots per game, so probably has more of a chance to amass goals-saved per game numbers than someone like Alisson.
   239. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:56 PM (#5918415)
United couldn't make decent contact on any of their chances in the box, and then on their one chance Burnley gets a great shot off of Wood's shin. Go figure.
   240. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 22, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5918464)
A big win for Burnley. Despite being second best all day (as expected, on the road to a superior team), they finished their chances with aplomb, while United did not. Would take a lot to sink Burnely into relegation risk again now.

The relegation tiers are:
Norwich (virtually gone)
Villa/Bournemouth (50/50)
Watford/West Ham (bubble teams, wouldn't take much to sink them into the muck again)
Brighton (just a touch safer than the prior two)
Newcastle (probably safe, but fully deserving of a some risk because by all rights they don't deserve another point all year).
Burnley/Palace (virtually safe)
Southampton (even safer)
Sheffield/Everton/Arsenal (only listed here for completeness. They won't drop.)
   241. Mefisto Posted: January 22, 2020 at 07:11 PM (#5918468)
That game was a perfect example of United's weaknesses.
   242. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 22, 2020 at 07:33 PM (#5918472)
Meanwhile, at home Spurs manage to barely scrape a win against the last place team in the league! Woo!
   243. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 22, 2020 at 07:46 PM (#5918475)
Dubravka is excellent. I think he is a big part of the reason Newcastle are are overperforming their xG stats quite the way they are. In addition to being a very good shot stopper, he also has excellent positioning and decision making. Like when to come for balls, when to come out of goal and close down players on through balls. Setting up the right angles to make the finish as difficult as possible. Just a really smart player, who reads play well, and gets to the right spot a fraction of a second before most keepers can.
   244. Richard Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5918505)
Dubravka is excellent. I think he is a big part of the reason Newcastle are are overperforming their xG stats quite the way they are.


Dubravka is certainly one of the best keepers in the division this year. I agree he's a big part of Newcastle being as high as they are.

Personally I think Ederson is the best in the division, though Allison, De Gea, Ben Foster, Dean Henderson and Dubravka are the best of the rest. I think Matt Ryan and Pickford are very overrated.
   245. Dale Sams Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:21 AM (#5918569)
I don't think I've ever seen the ass end of the EPL play so well. Even Norwich today had tons of chances. Played beautiful in stretches. There are so many teams down there I look at and think, 'you guys don't deserve to get relegated.'

The team that most deserves to, Newcastle, just keep snatching points.
   246. Dale Sams Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:49 AM (#5918571)
In the Manu game....the free kick given around the 67th minute...made me think of an absurd situation because the ball flicked the forwards hand right before he was fouled.

The situation being, a defender sees the ball come off a players hand in the box and he just abandons the guy to cover another player. Or lets him through on goal.
   247. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 23, 2020 at 09:32 AM (#5918609)
I’m with Dale. The bottom half of the table is much better. I have to assume this is an impact of the TV money that has been rolling in and teams can spend more.

I think teams have seen that coming into the EPL and playing a more attacking style has been an effective strategy. It’s only anecdotal but I feel like the promoted teams that have just gone hell for leather have been the ones that have exceeded expectations.
   248. spivey Posted: January 23, 2020 at 09:49 AM (#5918615)
I’m with Dale. The bottom half of the table is much better. I have to assume this is an impact of the TV money that has been rolling in and teams can spend more.

I think teams have seen that coming into the EPL and playing a more attacking style has been an effective strategy. It’s only anecdotal but I feel like the promoted teams that have just gone hell for leather have been the ones that have exceeded expectations.


I feel like the money had been there for a while, but teams weren't using it well. It seems like teams have way more coherent rosters and strategies besides just 9 guys behind the ball these days. I think the Championship having so much money, and tactics seeming to improve there as well, has also helped. Teams coming up seem more capable of having a well worked team goal.

Of course, last year there was Cardiff and Huddersfield, who were awful. I think there's always going to be some variance year to year.

I could be off here, but it does also seem like things have changed a bit around Europe. Players are more willing to play for lower table EPL team (or other top leagues), not just for wages, but also for playing time. Maybe that's always been there, but I feel like I'm noticing it more. Players willing to take a step or two down in terms of team quality to play, confident they'll be able to take the step back up. Players of all ages, too.
   249. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5918616)
Agree with the last few comments, and I also think manager quality for bottom table teams has improved quite a bit? They aren't all just settling for the 65 year old retreads who have managed 6 or 8 different teams in the promotion/relegation cycle.
   250. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 23, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5918710)
It's obviously not a ringing endorsement of United's current squad or OGS, but if you look at np-xG and even better xG or xPoints that includes penalties, United is performing as good or better this year as they have been at this stage of the season at any time since Fergie left.

Despite how high some of those teams performed in the table, none were particularly good. This team has had its share of bad luck while others have had their share of good, but they have all been well off the best teams in the league.
   251. spivey Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5918745)
It is amusing that all of the "Man U in shambles" takes kind of ignore that they really do seem to be on a good trajectory, the most promising trajectory I've seen for them. AWB and Maguire were expensive but can start for teams that contend for trophies. Greenwood has been impressive and so has James, I think both have very strong futures. Rashford looks like he is finally developing to one of the best players in the league.

I really think they're only a couple of players away, and I think they are generally playing exciting, solid football.

For me if they sell Martial and Pogba and some other dead weight, and re-invest that money to get a couple of top midfielders and a striker better than Martial they could be very good as soon as next year.
   252. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 23, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5918786)
"Glorious header by Henderson, who's not known for heading the ball"

Turns out it was mis-hot and off his shoulder, but nonetheless perfectly placed. When things are going well for you...

To be fair, it was a good run by Henderson, and an excellent corner take from TAA. Sometimes those get rewarded with goals even if the contact isn't immaculate.

And then Wolves miss a much chance off the corner on the other end.
   253. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 23, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5918794)
If Liverpool goes on to win, there will be 10 team with between 30 and 34 points.
   254. Mefisto Posted: January 23, 2020 at 04:29 PM (#5918806)
I disagree to some extent with 251, but the problem with United is that they lack management which is capable of carrying out a serious plan. So even if some elements are now in place, they don't show any sign of understanding what to do next.
   255. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 23, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5918809)
Another game where Liverpool hardly looked airtight at the back. They did enough going forward against a good defensive Wolves team on the road though, even without Mane for most of the game.
   256. spivey Posted: January 23, 2020 at 04:51 PM (#5918816)
I disagree to some extent with 251, but the problem with United is that they lack management which is capable of carrying out a serious plan. So even if some elements are now in place, they don't show any sign of understanding what to do next.


I don't disagree. And the fact that OGS said they're years away strikes me as a total CYA move, and I don't think that highly of him anyways. But I think he's had them playing pretty well this year, better than I'd have expected. And their best players are pretty much all on the right side of the age curve, too. And, granting the pieces they need are the rarest and most expensive, but a team like Man U should be able to go out there and fill the remaining gaps.
   257. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 23, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5918825)
Watford may not have been taking the FA tie seriously, considering their precarious league position, but 3rd-tier Tranmere knocked them out in extra time.
   258. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 23, 2020 at 06:00 PM (#5918839)
Posted on twitter:

Liverpool are at +20 pts to xPts according to understat. only one team in the top 5 leagues has had +20 over an entire season in their database (since 2014-5).
   259. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 23, 2020 at 06:19 PM (#5918842)
Top 4 odds heading into the week off:

Leicester: 86.5%
Chelsea: 66%
Tottenham: 19.5%
Man Utd: 15%
Wolves: 9%
Arsenal: 3%
Sheffield Utd: 1.5%
Everton: <1%

These are similar to 538, except that 538 is less impressed with Manchester United and especially Spurs, and think Leicester is more of a shoe-in. The betting odds are also still holding out some hope for Arsenal.

Obviously a big week for Spurs, considering none of the others won except for Leicester. They're not exactly back in it, but at least now they have hope again.

Of the above team, Sheffield United has the easiest remaining schedule, having already played City, Liverpool, and Arsenal twice each. Wolves is also done with City and Liverpool. Manchester United is done with Liverpool and Arsenal. The rest of the teams have harder remaining schedules.

Liverpool is sitting pretty. Really. All 5 of the teams they have already faced twice are in the top half of the table (if you include Sheffield United). They only have 4 games they shouldn't be very heavily favored to win:
away to Everton (March 14)
away to City (April 4)
away to Arsenal (May 2)
home v Chelsea (May 9)

538 has them projected to get 102 points.
   260. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 23, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5918877)
Yeah, looking at their lineup Watford absolutely did not care about the FA Cup. Tranmere had 59% possession!
   261. aberg Posted: January 24, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5919065)
I don't disagree. And the fact that OGS said they're years away strikes me as a total CYA move, and I don't think that highly of him anyways. But I think he's had them playing pretty well this year, better than I'd have expected. And their best players are pretty much all on the right side of the age curve, too. And, granting the pieces they need are the rarest and most expensive, but a team like Man U should be able to go out there and fill the remaining gaps.


It seems like they're not that far from having a coherent attack or defense. Maybe not to contend with Liverpool or City, but at least to be in the top 4. The midfield is just so bereft. It's not like a group that's too defensive and lacks creativity, or that's too attacking-minded and can't track back. It's not that they don't fit together. It just seems like they don't have a single midfielder who consistently shows the quality to be a PL starter (Pogba, whether you count him or not, would be the exception).
   262. Mefisto Posted: January 24, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5919078)
I completely agree with 261. The other issue is depth. It's not just that their current midfield is weak (aside from Pogba), it's that they have no real cover at any of the 3 positions (the current starters could plausibly be backups). They also have no backup right back and their backups for CB start with Phil Jones and go down from there.
   263. aberg Posted: January 24, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5919088)
I completely agree with 261. The other issue is depth. It's not just that their current midfield is weak (aside from Pogba), it's that they have no real cover at any of the 3 positions (the current starters could plausibly be backups). They also have no backup right back and their backups for CB start with Phil Jones and go down from there.


And the cover for the striker is the best wide attacker.
   264. Mefisto Posted: January 24, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5919093)
Yes, or an 18 year old.
   265. frannyzoo Posted: January 25, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5919249)
What's the opposite of "dead cat bounce"? Valencia 2, Barcelona 0

   266. spivey Posted: January 25, 2020 at 09:47 PM (#5919291)
Champion's League thoughts:

- Atalanta put a hurting on Torino today. They were slow out of the gate but are looking to be at their best again. I think they should be able to handle Valencia.
- Haaland has been incredible for Dortmund so far, scoring 5 goals in like 60 minutes. I think he makes them a much more dangerous team.
- Talks seem to suggest Leipzig will be getting Olmo, which I think is a good pickup for them. I already think they're the favorites over Tottenham, I think that would make it moreso.

In Tottenham news... I am very tired of seeing Spurs give up a goal because Aurier is ####### around on the ball for no reason in his own half.
   267. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 25, 2020 at 10:26 PM (#5919304)
Valencia didn't so so badly this weekend either. ;)

Betting odds have it as basically a toss-up: 52% to Valencia. That's down slightly from December, when Valencia was a slight favorite at 57%.

Leipzig/Tottenham is also still a toss-up, with Leipzig now at 51% (up from 49.5% in December).

edit: Leipzig.

538, with its heavy recency bias, likes Leipzig and Atalanta much more than the betting odds. 64% and 72%! (Even if you think Atalanta is going to win, 72% seems awfully high...)
   268. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 07:42 AM (#5919322)
Betting odds still have PSG over Dortmund at around 73%, down from 74% in December.
   269. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5919363)
Lazio's charmed life continues. Despite their relatively mediocre xG, probably the only way they miss out on the CL next year is if both Atalanta and Roma pass them. A draw at Roma was all they really needed today, and they got that despite being significantly outplayed all game long.

Liverpool forced into a replay against Shrewsbury, despite leading 2-0 at the half. My guess is we'll see a bunch of youngsters again next week.
   270. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5919373)
Juve has 16 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a GD of +20. That's virtually impossible to do. They are 12-0 in games decided by 1 goal. Their one loss was by 2 goals. They have won by two goals three times and 4 goals once.

They haven't really outperformed their xG by much, they've just gotten all the breaks in close games.

(Liverpool is 11-0 in one goal games, but they also have a much better GD than Juve, and have a bunch of other wins by multiple goals.)
   271. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5919390)
By understat's xPoints, out of the serie A teams, Juve has most overperformed, primarily by winning all the games decided by 1 goal. Napoli has been second worst at underperforming. 3-6 in one goals games, but more importantly, they have an actual GD of 0 even though they have played much better than an average team by xG.

The first half has been fairly dull, but slight edge to Napoli. They came in as pretty big home dogs, probably unjustly so, though they are missing a couple starters today.

edit: at the half, announcers say that "Juve has been the better side", but then immediately followed that up by saying that they hadn't created any chances. Then they show the highlights, which contained no shots for Juve. (Only 3 on the half, I think 2 from Ronaldo outside of the box with no real chance of going in, and I can't remember the third.) Possession was also 50/50. I don't know what game the announcers were watching, but I suspect they, like most, expected Juve to win and that is biasing their judgment.
   272. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 26, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5919392)
Juve has 16 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a GD of +20. That's virtually impossible to do. They are 12-0 in games decided by 1 goal. Their one loss was by 2 goals. They have won by two goals three times and 4 goals once.


Jose Mourinho just got aroused and isn't sure why.
   273. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 03:54 PM (#5919394)
The three Juve shots were actually a shot from distance by Ronaldo, a blocked shot from Cuadrado, and a header from Ronaldo that was never going to have a chance. None very memorable.
   274. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5919397)
Juve finally got another shot, surprisingly on a counter (hardly any counters in this game). That's only their second shot in the last 50 minutes.

Immediately followed by a Napoli goal. I'm not saying it was "deserved", because the game could have ended up 0-0 without anyone batting an eye, but Napoli has at least done a little bit today. Sczcesny with an error to give up a rebound for the goal.
   275. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5919401)
Pretty volley by Insigne for 2-0 after a nice move by Napoli. It looked like the Napoli goal had maybe wokenJuvem up a tad, and they had two quick shots afterwards, but hadn't manage one in the last 20 minutes and it looked like it would end 1-0.

Silver lining for Juve is maybe they get to keep their perfect record in 1-goal games intact.

edit: oops, spoke too soon. 2-1.
   276. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5919402)
So, 2-0 really did wake up Juve, and they got the goal and another shot on goal in injury time, but fall 2-1.

Big win for Napoli puts them (barely) back in the top half of the table finally. CL is probably out of reach, but they should probably be expected to get a Europa League spot, if they care about that.

538 had the xG as fairly close, but most of Juve's xG came after they were down 2-0 in the last few minutes.
   277. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 26, 2020 at 05:00 PM (#5919407)
To wrap this one up, understat wasn't nearly so favorable to Juve--they had the game at 1.27-0.65, which is close to what I would have guessed (538 had it at 1.4-1.2). Only 0.27 for Juve until it was 2-0 in the 89th minute (per understat).
   278. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 27, 2020 at 12:01 PM (#5919577)
Did any of you know that EPL Matchday 26 is being split into two weeks? Each team gets a bye week. It would be more meaningful if there weren't so many midweek games most weeks anyway due to all the other competitions. It also means teams probably play a tighter schedule at another time of year.
   279. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 27, 2020 at 02:27 PM (#5919649)
All the top teams avoid each other in the FA Cup, except Chelsea would host Liverpool if the Liverpool kids can get past Shrewsbury.

Manchester United go to Rooney's Derby if Derby advances in the replay.

edit: every matchup has at least 1 EPL team, if Newcastle can get by Oxford in the replay (and if you count Newcastle...)
   280. aberg Posted: January 27, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5919683)
Saka has been playing really well for Arsenal lately. Given the rest of the team, they would probably be better off with a more defensive-leaning fullback, but he looks like a keeper.
   281. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5919717)
how much extra time are they allowing in this arsenal game???


EDIT: apparently the answer was 10 minutes and 20 seconds as arsenal finally holds on for 2-1 victory.
   282. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5919726)
Shoot the game didn't seem very interesting and I dozed off. Announcers said their might be 10 minutes of added time though. Quite a few injury stoppages.
   283. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:37 PM (#5919739)
The extra time seemed reasonable to me. There were bodies everywhere and the Arsenal players in particular certainly seemed to be staying down for extended periods in extra time.
   284. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 27, 2020 at 06:09 PM (#5919747)
Yeah to be fair to Bournemouth they were picking it up and making a bit of a contest of it late. Still were down 0-2 though when I dozed off.
   285. spivey Posted: January 28, 2020 at 09:21 AM (#5919843)
Eriksen is finally gone, and Bergwijn in to Tottenham are done. Granting it's the Eredivisie, his dribbling rates and goal contributions are very high. And he has shown an ability to play RW too. It's all very exciting. Hopefully gets Moura back to a super sub, more rotation among the front. Seems like the main other talks are about a striker. Which is fair, but man, I'd rather see DM or RB addressed. Tottenham's xG has actually been fine lately.
   286. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:29 AM (#5919854)
Which is fair, but man, I'd rather see DM or RB addressed.


Funny thing, I had the exact same thought.

RB might, might be ok with Tanganga, but DM, that's just a black hole. Dier is just, well, dire and Spaghetti Vic's knees are, well, spaghetti.

Winks?

Think of those three options and then decide ... yeah, an attacking right midfielder is where we're going to spend money this January?
   287. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 28, 2020 at 03:55 PM (#5919984)
Barca put in an offer on Fernandes and ultrashrewd businessman and world class negotiator Ed Woodward instantly caved to Sporting's demands.
   288. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5919990)
Second leg of Villa-Leicester has been great. VIlla leading 1-0 though Leicester have had chances. Villa have had a couple of dangerous looking corners.
   289. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:17 PM (#5919996)
Leicester equalize! 1-1 in the 75th.
   290. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5920006)
It's been a very compelling second half. i thought Leicester looked surprisingly weak in the first half, but that obviously hasn't been true in the second. Villa had a few chances as well.
   291. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5920010)
Wow! Great pass to the back post and Trezeguet touches it back across the goal for the 93rd minute winner!
   292. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5920011)
Beautiful goal. Villa has no chance against City, but let them enjoy this one at least.
   293. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5920012)
Leicester blew this in the first leg. Congrats to Villa and their fans.
   294. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5920019)
Fun to see Villa celebrate. Wouldn't mean as much to most other teams in the EPL at the moment.
   295. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5920025)
Very true. You never know. City has had some klunkers this season, and I'm still mildly worried about United tomorrow.
   296. jmurph Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5920027)
Hey, City lost to a relegated Wigan in the FA Cup Final a few years ago, it's possible!
   297. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 28, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5920033)
Leeds came from 0-2 down to win against Millwall, so have retaken the lead in the Championship with West Brom losing. Forest jump to third with a huge win on the road to Brentford. Still not considered particularly likely for promotion, but that was probably a win they needed to have any shot.
   298. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 28, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5920045)
Manchester United is only being given about a 2% chance to advance. Makes sense since their odds of even winning the game at all are only around 11%, and most of those would be by 1 goal.
   299. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5920049)
I was feeling really good until they conceded that goal at the end of the first leg. It just planted a shadow of a doubt in my mind. I can't believe that they put the odds of them winning at all at 11%. If I can find 9-1 on United, I'm taking it.
   300. I am going to be Frank Posted: January 28, 2020 at 06:08 PM (#5920057)
Bruno Fernandes may be a done deal to United? I dunno any more.
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