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Tuesday, December 31, 2019

OT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020

As we flip the calendar to 2020, there are many things we do not yet know about the year to come. One thing, though, is certain: there will be lots of complaining about VAR. And I for one am looking forward to it.*


*I am not actually looking forward to it.

The Marksist Posted: December 31, 2019 at 04:38 PM | 715 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: ot, soccer

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   301. Mefisto Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:28 PM (#5920075)
"Bruno Fernandes may be a done deal to United? I dunno any more."

Looks that way, though by all reports United are significantly overpaying. Not my money, but it's one reason why their squad is pretty thin.

Fernandes pretty much plays Pogba's best position, so I'm not sure how he'll fit in (unless they plan to move Pogba, which would be a mistake). He also turns the ball over a lot, which means he'll fit in to the United midfield that way if no other.
   302. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 28, 2020 at 08:10 PM (#5920077)
Barca made noise about preparing a bid for Fernandes, and Woodward suddenly became eager to pay full sticker price.

Seems to me like safe bet Barca isn't particularly interested in Fernandes, but did Sporting a favor they'll call in next time they actually want a Sporting player.
   303. Mefisto Posted: January 28, 2020 at 09:33 PM (#5920088)
That seems likely.

Some quick thoughts on the US first half under their new coach (up 1-0 v. Haiti):

1. US looks ragged. They took December off and it shows. Lots of poor touches and passes.
2. They're missing some key players due to injury, including Morgan, Heath, and Rapinoe. Without Heath and Rapinoe, there's no real creativity except Lavelle, and they aren't getting Lavelle the ball.
3. Lynne Williams still has no real soccer skills, but she is fast.
4. Press is taking excellent corners. Must be getting private lessons. :)
5. Haiti had a goal called back on a seemingly bizarre call (offside on a corner kick, which is not a thing). The announcers and the replay failed to clarify.
   304. Baldrick Posted: January 28, 2020 at 09:43 PM (#5920089)
I wrote a piece about St. Kitts and Nevis, who made it to the final round of qualifying for the first time ever. They're probably going to get pummeled here, but they're still a really interesting story.

Meanwhile, the US looks very rusty--especially the midfielders. And yes, that goal was apparently called off because the referees don't know the rules of the game.
   305. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 28, 2020 at 09:45 PM (#5920090)
Will you explain to me how that was offside?!

No, seriously, explain offside to me. It makes NO SENSE!
   306. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:12 PM (#5920093)
WTF? That is crazy. I did enjoy FS2 drawing the line to show the offside line which of course is the goal line.

Genuine question; if a part of her body had been in the goal (which it wasn’t) could that be called offside? My understanding is that you can’t be offside on a corner but that’s about all I can think of.
   307. Mefisto Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:13 PM (#5920094)
It wasn't offside. The ref blew the call.
   308. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:17 PM (#5920095)
Like I can’t figure out WHY the call was made. I don’t see a foul anywhere, the ball doesn’t come anywhere near the first player. It makes no sense to me.
   309. Mefisto Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:30 PM (#5920098)
I really think she forgot that there's no offside on a corner kick. In that case, the player was "offside".
   310. Mefisto Posted: January 28, 2020 at 10:41 PM (#5920103)
US won it 4-0. Rapinoe got an assist on her first touch, got a second a few minutes later, and made the key pass for a third. We really need creativity on this team.
   311. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5920191)
In that case, the player was "offside".
Not even sure that was true on this play. The scorer was at least a foot from the goal line when the ball was kicked, and it looked like the ball was further toward the goal line when it was kicked. Obviously moot due to the rule about corner kicks, but it would have been the wrong call even if it was a free kick.
   312. Mefisto Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5920192)
Yeah, "offside" only meaning "behind the last defender" and ignoring all other aspects of the rule.
   313. Mefisto Posted: January 29, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5920207)
Sky reports that Everton turned down a 100M Euro offer for Richarlison. Strikes me as crazy all around, but who knows.
   314. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5920244)
Liverpool make up game at West Ham today andddd a Manchester derby game for the Carabao Cup semifinal. The best I could do odds wise for United was almost 8-1 but today it was down to like 7-1. Interesting. Couldn't pull the trigger.
   315. frannyzoo Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5920245)
Oxlade-Chamberlain as basically Defensive Mid doesn't seem to be working out. Even against West Ham.
   316. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5920247)
United goes up 1-0.
   317. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5920248)
Game on in Manchester! Ball ricochets around on a free kick and Matic blazes home a left-footed shot. 3-2 on aggregate.
   318. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5920249)
Game on in Manchester! Ball ricochets around on a free kick and Matic blazes home a left-footed shot. 3-2 on aggregate.


We got trouble. Right here in River City.
   319. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5920251)
The number of times in the course of the game with Bravo in the net that the stats show Shots on Target: 1, Goals: 1 is... a lot. It happens a lot!

(I'm not watching, so I'm not actually suggesting he made an error or anything.)
   320. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5920254)
Bravo had no chance. Poor clearance off a free kick fell to Matic and he hit a great shot in first time, hard, off the post.
   321. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5920255)
Despite United's lead, United and City are being given about equal odds to win this game. If anything, slight edge to City.
   322. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5920257)
Bravo is one of those keepers where I don’t know what to make of him. Like he doesn’t seem to be making huge howlers or anything but at the same time, as jmurph says he doesn’t seem to be particularly impressive. I feel like he’s not really good but I’m not knowledgeable enough to identify that. It’s how I felt about Robles when he was at Everton. There was just something about the goals he allowed where in theory, yeah he never had a chance but I just can’t help but feel a better keeper would have done something.
   323. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5920261)
I have no idea what the gold standard goalkeeping stats are, but if I remember correctly the one year he actually was the 1st choice at City they conceded a very high percentage of shots on target. It's never really clear to me, though, if that directly reflects on the keeper or not (or to what extent it does).
   324. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5920266)
Oh Sterling should have put this to bed.
   325. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5920267)
Oh man what's the xG going to be on that Sterling miss? Yikes.
   326. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:03 PM (#5920268)
They showed a stat that had City with no shots since the 26th minute, and all of United's shots have come since then.

edit: before the Sterling miss, obviously. Won't be that high of an xG from where he ended up taking the shot. Should have gone early when it was 1 v 1.
   327. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:17 PM (#5920277)
What the hell was that? Shoot the ball!
   328. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5920280)
Oh that should do it. United down to 10 men.
   329. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5920283)
What a stupid play. He knows he's on a yellow (edit: AND a short leash to boot, per the ref's comments earlier), wtf.
   330. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5920284)
Jose was 327 aimed at United screwing around at the edge of the box? (I'm streaming and am presumably a bit behind.) If so I agree.
   331. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5920288)
No, that was City. You’ll get there, Silva (I think) got a ball from Maguire about 12 yards in front and they dicked around and didn’t get a shot off.
   332. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5920289)
329 - I think the announcer is right, that falls to Ole. He’s got to recognize the circumstance and get Matic off the pitch.
   333. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5920291)
Well that was a dumb and entirely unnecessary foul from Otamendi. How bad will they be punished for it?
   334. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5920297)
At least that was interesting! United may have gotten the "win" (on the day) because of the red card, ironically, because City slowed down their play a lot.
   335. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: January 29, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5920320)
Liverpool remains unbeaten. Ho hum.
   336. Egregious Hidden Genitals (CoB). Posted: January 29, 2020 at 05:52 PM (#5920339)
   337. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5920349)
At least that was interesting! United may have gotten the "win" (on the day) because of the red card, ironically, because City slowed down their play a lot.


City didn't look anything like a great team in that game. They looked panicked pretty much throughout. It amazes me that that is the team that has arguably been the best team in the world for a few years now (the absence of a CL title notwithstanding). I realize there have been some changes but they look SO unsettled when they aren't in possession.
   338. manchestermets Posted: January 29, 2020 at 07:12 PM (#5920353)
He’s got to recognize the circumstance and get Matic off the pitch.


For who? City's midfield was already dominating United's for the most part, and there was nobody to replace Matic with who wouldn't have made that much worse.

They are absurdly short of holding midfielders.
   339. Mefisto Posted: January 29, 2020 at 08:49 PM (#5920365)
They're pretty short of midfielders period.
   340. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 29, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5920366)
It seems like every team is short of midfielders. But usually that means "we could sure use a better midfielder or two than the guys we have." For United it's more like "how many guys do we have in our squad who have ever played midfield in a high level match before?"
   341. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 29, 2020 at 09:16 PM (#5920368)
338 - It’s not ideal but you can’t go down to 10 men. I mean Mata isn’t a clean replacement for Matic but watching the match I felt like it was clear Matic was getting sent off, particularly after the talking too.
   342. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5920370)
I felt like it was clear Matic was getting sent off, particularly after the talking too.
I don't think it's ever clear a player will be sent off, but it did seem like he was at risk.

Why can't players control themselves a little better? Sure a fluke play or a late tackle when they truly thought there was little risk and anyone can get a second yellow, but Matic's play was so unnecessary.

I read recently that Lineker never received a card in his career. Probably a bit of fortune and almost certainly due in part to his position and style of play, but what it does show is that it has to be possible to play a game with little risk of getting a card, if that's what you want and/or need to do. There was no way Matic needed to foul in that situation, and every reason to expect that particular foul would earn him a card, even before he attempted it.

edit: some defenders, like Philip Lahm, went their whole career without a sending off (though they did obviously get yellows, unlike Lineker), so you can do it as a defender too.
   343. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 29, 2020 at 11:05 PM (#5920380)
I read recently that Lineker never received a card in his career.


The same with Sir Stanley Matthews, one of the greatest English players ever, who played from 1932 to 1965 without getting booked or sent off. He was 50 years old when he retired, and was the first footballer to be knighted while he was still active.
   344. jmurph Posted: January 30, 2020 at 09:27 AM (#5920414)
City didn't look anything like a great team in that game. They looked panicked pretty much throughout.

This (second sentence) doesn't remotely reflect the 2nd half, all of which I watched. I did not see the first half. United threatened to score... once, in the second half? On a free kick? As the team needing to score a goal.

I can't for the life of me find xG anywhere for this match.
   345. Sean Forman Posted: January 30, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5920615)
Antonee Robinson making a 10m pound move from Wigan to .... AC Milan?! Now the third most expensive transfer in USMNT history. I don't think he's actual cap-tied to the US, but he did play for US several times.
   346. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 30, 2020 at 06:34 PM (#5920633)
This (second sentence) doesn't remotely reflect the 2nd half, all of which I watched.


See I thought that's exactly what it looked like in the second half. Every time United attacked City looked a bit discombobulated and attacking they never looked comfortable. They seemed unwilling to shoot in a lot of obvious shooting situations. The skill was still on display but they looked like PSG against Barcelona to me, they were waiting for the other shoe to drop. The talent was sufficient to keep it from happening but I think they were ripe for the picking.
   347. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 01, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5920947)
This is some game between Chelsea and Leicester. First half was goalless but exciting, second half has been exciting and has four goals (two each). Still 20 minutes to go.
   348. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 09:49 AM (#5920954)
Chelsea completely dominated the first 20+ minutes, but didn't get a single shot off. After that Leicester probably had the edge for most of the rest of the game, and certainly had the best chances, though really either team could have won. A draw helps Leicester more than Chelsea right now.
   349. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 09:53 AM (#5920955)
Dortmund and Bayern are already both up 2-0. Leverkusen is up 1-0. If they all go on to win, there's going to be that much more pressure on the Leipzig/Gladbach game later today.

edit: and Hoffenheim draws level with Leverkusen already.
   350. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 01, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5920956)
Dortmund's youth movement getting it done early against Union. Jadon Sancho with his 25th of the season, the first teenager to score that many in the BL apparently. And shortly after, Haaland taps one in. His 6th goal in 70 mins of playing time. That sounds almost unbelievable. Not bad for a couple of 19 year olds.

(all stats provided by the announcers, I haven't independently verified them)
   351. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:01 AM (#5920961)
ETA on the above, it's Sancho's 25th total, not just this season. Was typing to fast, to get back to watching the game, heh.
   352. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5920964)
Haaland now up to 7 goals. This is ridiculous.
   353. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5920966)
Soft second yellow to Delph and he’s off for Everton.
   354. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5920968)
Some wild action at the bottom of the table. Watford and West Ham have each blown 2-goal leads at home, and Bournemouth is in danger of doing the same, down to 10 men in a relegation 6-pointer against Villa.
   355. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:45 AM (#5920969)
Mina just got whistled for a handball when he thought the play had been blown dead and picked the ball up.
   356. Mefisto Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5920972)
The USWNT almost completely rotated its lineup last night. It's a bit hard to make comparisons because Panama is significantly worse than Haiti, but playing all the creative midfielders made for a very open and entertaining display. If the front line could have stayed onside, and if the finishing could have been a bit better, the score would have been ridiculous instead of merely dominant (shots were 34-0).
   357. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5920973)
Haaland now up to 7 goals. This is ridiculous.

And created a penalty on a 1v1 against the keeper, which Reus converted.
   358. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 01, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5920974)
Wow, 10 man Everton with the goal in stoppage time. 3-2, about 3 minutes and change to go now.
   359. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5920976)
Huge win for Bournemouth, considering the stakes, and a crushing loss for Watford after being up 2-0 and getting another lifeline with that sending off. And Norwich can't get a much needed win against Newcastle, despite dominating statistically (seriously, again Newcastle?) That likely means Norwich is as sunk as ever, Villa is on the way to joining them, and Bournemouth is trying to climb out. Watford and West Ham aren't far ahead. Brighton still in danger. (Newcastle too, I guess, if they get some bad luck this year to mitigate all the good they've had so far.)

And Sheffield United wins again. They'll likely be 6th in the table after the weekend, and possibly even 5th if Manchester United and Wolves end up with a draw.
   360. Richard Posted: February 01, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5920978)
Our winner against Palace was a moment of high comedy.

Very poor before the break, but we stayed in it and did well in the second half.
   361. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5920981)
Leverkusen ended up losing today. Bayern, Leipzig and Dortmund are close to locks for CL next year, so it's really whether Gladbach will continue to play well and grab the 4th spot, or one of Leverkusen/Shchalke/Hoffenheim will get hot and snag it from them.

Gladbach has a tough road game today at Leipzig, but in truth it's a game they can afford to lose if they continue to play well the rest of the year. (And no, they still aren't playing for the Bundesliga title, at least not yet.)
   362. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 01:16 PM (#5920989)
Maguire with the MMA hold, and Traore may be injured.
   363. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5920990)
Very cagey first half at Old Trafford. Both teams held their defensive shape well.

0-2 Gladbach at the half. That is a surprise.
   364. spivey Posted: February 01, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5920994)
Gladbach gave up a very soft goal to let Leipzig back into the game, with the keeper dropping a high gather.

And then a ref double-yellowed a player for dissent in one of the weakest sending offs I've seen in a long time. The dissent was there, but, frankly not that out of line from what I see in matches all over Europe pretty regularly.
   365. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5920995)
Ouch. I saw the goal they gave up but missed the sending off. Hopefully they can find a way to hold on.

In the United game, Pereira keeps trying to dribble through the Wolves team near the edge of the box, and keeps turning the ball over.

edit: and they took him out for Greenwood. Deservedly so.
   366. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5920998)
If the fans walk out only if the team is losing, I don't think it counts as a protest.
   367. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 02:51 PM (#5921006)
Really tough result for Gladbach. They had no shots after the 46th minute, down to 10-men in the 64th. Prior to the GK error they were totally dominating.

The United/Wolves game was fairly even by xG, with both missing a big header near the end. I thought Maguire's scuff also near the end should have been much higher xG than what it was given (about 0.1). Wolves edge mostly came from half-chances in the box during the first 15 minutes. United didn't get any shots from inside the box until the 71st minute, when Pereira had the good look (also, surprisingly very low xG at 0.05. The angle was a little hard but he was in close and there was no one else there but the GK.)
   368. Mefisto Posted: February 01, 2020 at 03:19 PM (#5921008)
Bruno Fernandes came advertised as a guy who'd shoot from distance and he sure did that today. I doubt all of his shots combined amounted to xG of .5

It's a mystery to me why Pereira keeps getting starts.
   369. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 03:19 PM (#5921009)
Draw is basically not a helpful result for either United or Wolves, so the teams should probably have been trying harder to score.
   370. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5921010)
I doubt all of his shots combined amounted to xG of .5
No kidding. They were all from outside the box where xG is low, and understat had it as 0.16 combined (5 shots). The one uncontested one from 2-3 yards outside the box was in reality probably higher than the 0.05 xG given by understat though--it was a fairly decent look.
   371. Mefisto Posted: February 01, 2020 at 03:46 PM (#5921013)
United were trying hard to score, they just weren't trying well.
   372. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 10:20 AM (#5921080)
Neither United nor Wolves were trying hard enough to score, considering. The game was quite cagey, especially for the first 70 minutes or so.

Arsenal started this game out very strong, missing a couple of big chances early, but seem to be barely hanging on right now.
   373. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 11:01 AM (#5921087)
With this draw, the top 6 plus 3 are all in the top 10 half of the table for the first time this season. (Arsenal by GD only.) The other team is Sheffield United.

Arsenal has 13 draws this year in 25 games, and 6 in the last 8 games. The 38 game record is 17 draws, so Arsenal is well ahead of that pace.

Both teams had lots of chances this game. The 0-0 result is surprising.
   374. Mefisto Posted: February 02, 2020 at 11:34 AM (#5921090)
From MCOA:

Bruno yesterday

5 shots (all outside box)
66/86 passes complete
5/10 longballs complete
2/7 passes into penalty area complete
   375. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5921097)
Mahrez pulled down a long pass near the box, then stopped playing because he heard a whistle, thinking it had been flagged offside. Whistle must have come from the stands though.
   376. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5921100)
That was odd. I definitely heard a whistle too like Graham (or Lee, whoever) mentioned picking one up on the field level microphones.
   377. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5921104)
Looked like a penalty on the second play as well, but you could argue that Sterling had no chance to recover the ball and maybe was looking for the contact as well. Certainly Loris didn't get the ball and got Sterling.

   378. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5921105)
VAR crushing it today. Huge improvement to the game, love it.
   379. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5921107)
Yeah, I think they decided that Sterling wasn’t getting to the ball after the touch. I’m not sure if that should matter according to the laws (let alone logic) but I suspect that was the case.

I don’t get why it had to take so long for the original call. That’s my 30 second rule right there, the VAR ref should have looked at it, seen it, and immediately signaled Dean. It didn’t need to be three minutes of football first.
   380. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5921108)
The first one should have also been obvious in real time, so I guess I do have to credit VAR for that, despite the delay.
   381. nick swisher hygiene Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5921109)
It’s funny: you’d think that VAR would be best in a sport where occasional wrong decisions are hugely important.

So, then, soccer. But in fact, the one sport where it works well is tennis—and soccer is a complete shitshow.
   382. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5921110)
This last weekend tightened the relegation situation. Four teams now on the bubble and Brighton not far off. Current odds:

Norwich 90
Villa 51
West Ham 42
Watford 38
Bournemouth 37
Brighton 19
Newcastle 11
Palace 8
Burnley 3.5
Southampton 1.5
   383. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5921112)
The Guardian points out that after three halves against each other this season, City has outshot Spurs 41-3, and the total score is 2-2.
   384. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5921113)
xG is also approximately 41 - 0.3
   385. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5921114)
I can’t remember seeing City finish so poorly. Setting up for a disastrous loss somehow.
   386. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5921115)
Sure seems about right.
   387. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5921116)
That's the right call. Stupid play. I wish they called "shoulder to shoulder" a foul all the time except when both players have a fair claim to the ball, which clearly wasn't the case here.
   388. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5921117)
I don’t enjoy the sport. Just generally.
   389. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5921118)
Yes totally agree Bea, it was correct.
   390. Baldrick Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5921119)
This is the dumbest soccer game I have seen in a very long time. Hilarious stuff.
   391. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 12:56 PM (#5921120)
That’s orange there from LoCelso.
   392. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5921121)
The sport should be made illegal.
   393. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5921132)
xG across the two games (including pen) was 6 or 7 to about 0.5. 538 viewed it as a slight positive game for City, and have them again ranked equally with Liverpool (personally I think City is the superior team this year, as also reflected by the current CL odds, where City is slightly favored over Liverpool despite having the tougher round of 16 opponent.)

By the way, 538 continues its love affair with Bayern, who is considered Liverpool and City's equal still. CL odds aren't nearly as favorable to Bayern, though they are still likely considered a top 5 team in the world, maybe even a distant 3rd behind City/Liverpool.

Current top 4 odds:

Leicester 87
Chelsea 63
Tottenham 23
Man Utd 11
Wolves 8
Sheffield Utd 4
Arsenal 2
Everton 2


   394. Mefisto Posted: February 02, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5921136)
City have been extraordinarily resourceful this year to drop points the way they have.
   395. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5921138)
VAR today was a complete "success" in that, if using the "clear/obvious" standard for overturning the calls on the field, I think it came to all the right conclusions. On the other hand, we had 2 minutes of play that didn't happen, as well as two incidents (the sterling non-red card and non-penalty) that would have stood had they been called the other way on the field. On net it sure seems like it was a negative in this game.

For me it's a bit weird to parse the difference between the two penalty shouts. I think its not unfair to say the first was clear/obvious and the other not, but I think both were penalties and neither an egregious miscarriage of justice to let them stand as non-penalties. I'd prefer either a higher standard (30 seconds to fix only the worst, egregious errors, that everyone can agree on) or a standard where there is little deference to what the ref on the field has called--the only deference would be not to interrupt the action. In my view, the ref should be viewed as a member of a team of officials, not the one focal point for fans of both teams to complain about.

Both of those standards are also easier for the VAR officials. This in-between is a very fine line for many calls.
   396. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5921141)
It's true City have dropped several more points than they should have this year, but I think mostly we have gotten spoiled with just how efficient they were the last couple years. Their xPoints the last two years were about 91 each, and they had an over/under in the low 90s this year coming into the season. Right now their xPoints are very close to that, slightly less at 87, which reflects a bit their weaker defense. According to understat they should have 57.5 points this year instead of just 51.

Prorated out, that's -10 on the year, which is pretty "unlucky" but not in any kind of historic way. Huddersfield was -15 last year. Crystal Palace, Southampton and West Brom all underperformed by more the year before, and Southampton about as bad the year before that. On the other hand, you don't usually see this type of underperformance at the top of the table. Hoffenheim last year in the Bundesliga was 3rd in xPoints but was even more unlucky than City this year. Dortmund 2 years ago was 2nd in xPoints and was almost as unlucky. Same for Atalanta 2 years ago.

We also haven't gone through a whole year yet, so there's no reason to think City will continue to underperform xPoints (so proration isn't really justified anyway). There are actually quite a few teams this year in as bad a shape or worse than City on this measure--it's not the least bit uncommon to be -6.5 through 2/3 of the season. In the EPL, there are three teams worse off, and another 5(!) almost as bad. That's effectively half the league. The most "unlucky" is actually the other Manchester, at -10 so far, and also notably toward the top of the table in xPoints. Also up there are Chelsea and to a slightly lesser extent Wolves, Leicester and Southampton. At the bottom of the table Brighton and Watford have severely underperformed xPoints worse than City so far. Lots of teams in the other big 4 too in the same boat. Limiting it to teams that would be near the top of the table only, there is Atletico and Villarreal in La Liga, and Napoli and Atalanta in Serie A. Atalanta is the only other team in this situation that is currently leading their league in xPoints but is way out of it in part due to underperformance.

edit: implicit in all this is that the reason why the City case seems so much worse than it is, of course, that we have a truly historic overperformance by their current rival, Liverpool.

edit2: almost half of City's total came in this game today (-2.92 today alone, versus -6.44 on the season, per understat). Also, an additional -1.93 for the other Tottenham game.
   397. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5921143)
On the flip side, Newcastle is on a very historic "lucky" pace for a team at or near the bottom of the table in xPoints ("at" in the case of Newcastle of course). There hasn't been a team like that near the bottom of the table going back 6 years in the top 4. Swansea comes sort of close way back in 2014/2015, when they finished with 56 points despite not being much better than a relegation-bound team. This year Freiburg and Schalke are way overperforming and by rights should be close(ish) to the bottom of the table. None by as much as Newcastle though, and none at the very bottom.
   398. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5921149)
I love it when the coaches and the management get blamed for poor finishing or goalkeeping errors by normally decent players. I mean yeah, blame them for poor game plan where the team can't create chances or ship easy goals, or bad personnel if you must, but how is it Guardiola's fault on the day that his team didn't score when his excellent offensive players didn't put the ball in the net on high quality chances? That's looney tunes.

When United missed those 4 penalties in a row earlier in the season (or whatever it was) there were moans of the management being at fault because they couldn't construct a squad with players of sufficient "quality", not because they didn't create enough chances from open play (which was and is really an issue for them, and a very legitimate gripe), but because they didn't have any players on the roster who could convert a penalty, despite having Rashford and Pogba, among others, on the field. It's results-oriented analysis at its very worst, and you see it all the time in soccer articles.
   399. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5921151)
How bad have Newcastle been? They have 0.68 xPpints per game, which would give them 17 points on the season right now. No team in the big 4 this year has been worse (relative to their league). 2nd worst is significantly better--Lecce, with .81 per game.

That's historically bad for Newcastle. The only one worse than 0.75 over a full season on the last several years (big 4) I could find was Granada (16/17), at 0.70 per game and Hannover (18/19) at 0.74. It's pretty rare to find teams with less than 0.80 or so over a full season. For the curious, Huddersfield last year was 0.78 per game.

Newcastle is currently at -25.5 nonpen xGD in 25 games. No team in the EPL has been worse than -1.0 over a full season since 14/15, and it's only been done a few times in the other big 4:
Granada (16/17) (worst of the lot, at -1.11 per game)
Las Palmas (17/18)
Hannover (18/19)
Verona (17/18)

This year there are actually two teams worse so far on a per game basis. Unlike Newcastle, they are both currently favorites for the drop:
Dusseldorf (19/20) (-1.125)
Lecce (19/20) (-1.09)
   400. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5921153)
Arteta took Ozil off in the 64th minute. Despite having a good start to the game it was very easy to see why Arteta thought he had become a liability. He wasn't helping create on offense anymore, and Arsenal had been getting overrun in the midfield. In retrospect the change looks like it may have been an excellent one. Ozil's recent coaches have all become disillusioned with him before too long, and it's not hard to understand why despite all the talent, based on games like today.

1st 36 minutes of the game:
Arsenal - shots 6; xG 1.02
Burnley - shots 3; xG 0.06

Next 28 minutes until Ozil was removed:
Arsenal - shots 1; xG 0.10
Burnley shots 10; xG 1.53

Last 30 minutes after Ozil was removed:
Arsenal - shots 6; xG 0.66
Burnely - shots 2; xG 0.67

edit: am I reading correctly that Burnley didn't make any subs? How often does that happen?
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