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Tuesday, December 31, 2019

OT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020

As we flip the calendar to 2020, there are many things we do not yet know about the year to come. One thing, though, is certain: there will be lots of complaining about VAR. And I for one am looking forward to it.*


*I am not actually looking forward to it.

The Marksist Posted: December 31, 2019 at 04:38 PM | 715 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: ot, soccer

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   501. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5923676)
Brentford/Leeds ended in a draw, which considering that Leeds is slightly ahead in the table and was on the road, is a slight edge to Leeds. I couldn't see much of the game, but Leeds had all the possession in the last 15 minutes. xG was fairly close.

Forest lost at home to Charlton, so despite their wins over Brentford and Leeds (in both cases they lost the xG battle) they are still a longshot for the EPL.
   502. Baldrick Posted: February 11, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5923680)
Here's an interesting point about the USWNT in CONCACAF: the midfielders scored 12 goals in 900 minutes. The forwards scored 12 goals in 1367 minutes. IMO the US has the best midfield in the world now; in fact, it's so good that they probably have 4 midfielders who are better than anyone else in the world right now.

I wouldn't go that far. e.g. I'd still take Amandine Henry for sure, and maybe players like Danielle Van de Donk, Kosovare Asllani, Sara Däbritz (though she's out with an ACL), Kim Little, etc. But yet, they're exceptional. Andi Sullivan and Morgan Brian are arguably top 10-15 midfielders in the world, and neither will likely get anything more than a few scattered minutes here and there. And then there's Crystal Dunn who is arguably the best midfielder in the world at the club level, but plays fullback (!) for the national team.
   503. Mefisto Posted: February 11, 2020 at 06:17 PM (#5923699)
The US really needs a backup left back (other than their starting RB, that is). I hope Short or Davidson can fill that role so that Dunn doesn't have to play so many minutes.
   504. manchestermets Posted: February 11, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5923706)
The sideline camera angle at Griffin Park is very low, it's quite disconcerting. I thought Brentford was supposed to be in a new stadium this year?


Next season.
   505. Richard Posted: February 11, 2020 at 11:29 PM (#5923753)
For Richard.


Thanks for the link.

This has obviously been a big topic on Blades social media this season. My take:

1. McGoldrick has never been a great finisher, and his level of performance last season (after a dip before Christmas when he could not score to save his life, most notably missing a penalty against Sheffield Wednesday) was both excellent and probably more than we could have hoped for. He also stayed fit all year, which was another unexpected bonus given his injury history.

2. His finishing is worse this year (I have never seen a player so consistently hit the target and yet always put it too close to the keeper), and he has also been genuinely unlucky, most notably when he had a goal disallowed at Tottenham due to a pedantic VAR offside decision. However, he was, until mid December, worth his place given that no other United striker save Mousset was scoring or playing well, and his link play is excellent and we looked a worse side without him, as we found it hard to retain the ball.

3. There was a watershed moment at Brighton in December when McGoldrick missed an open goal after going round Matt Ryan. In the 4 games after that, he did not play as well as he had previously. It has been said that it looks like the barren run is really playing on his mind. I think he's got the yips.

4. McGoldrick then missed 3 games through injury and was an unused sub on Saturday. United have won 2, drawn 1 (at Arsenal) and lost 1 (at home to Man City) of those games. They have done well without him for the first time. Ollie McBurnie is now starting every game and looking much improved - he has 4 goals. Billy Sharp has now had a few starts in a row and looks a goal threat, scoring at the weekend.

5. People have speculated whether McGoldrick could play the whole season and not get a goal. My view since November has been that Chris Wilder, who is very good at tackling problems earlier rather than later, wont let him play the whole season and leave him as an automatic starter, and I suspect him not starting Sunday is a part of that.

6. I think the article is correct - he is not a good enough finisher at this level. However, he can help the team and I suspect we will see him back starting in 3 or 4 games time. The next 2 league games are Brighton and Norwich, both at home, and I think Wilder will leave things as they are for those.

As an aside, people who are considering our CL or Europa League chances should look at our schedule. We have only 2 fixtures left against the current top 4 - Chelsea home and Leicester away - and Tottenham and Wolves both have to come to Bramall Lane. I suspect our run in is a bit easier than a few of our competitors. I don't think we will finish 4th but 5th to 7th is very doable if we keep up this level of performance.

   506. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2020 at 11:46 PM (#5923755)
Sheffield United have been great this year, but top 4 is still very long odds, currently about 6% (which is better than Arsenal and Everton!) Top 6 betting odds is about 26%.

They have to play all the other teams that matter for the top 4 chase though, so they have their fate in their own hands: Leicester, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United, Wolves. For the top 7 chase you can throw in Everton that they still have to play.

As far as schedule goes, Sheffield United does seem to have a slightly easier schedule remaining than most of their competitors, save Wolves.

Sheffield United has played Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal twice already.
Leicester has played Liverpool and Chelsea twice.
Chelsea has played Leicester and Arsenal twice.
Tottenham has played Liverpool and Manchester City twice.
Manchester United has played Liverpool, Wolves and Arsenal twice.
Wolves has played Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United twice.
   507. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: February 12, 2020 at 09:59 PM (#5924041)
The US men’s national team have urged US Soccer to sharply increase pay for the world champion women’s team and accused the governing body of making low-ball offers in negotiations with the men.

The union for the women’s team have filed a gender discrimination lawsuit against US Soccer, which will be heard in court in May. The women agreed to a collective bargaining agreement in April 2017 that extends through 2021. The men’s labor contract expired at the end of 2018.

“The women’s 2017-2021 deal is worse than the men’s 2011-2018 deal,” the men’s union said in a statement on Wednesday. “The federation continues to discriminate against the women in their wages and working conditions. ... What we believe should happen is simple. Pay the women significantly more than our recently expired men’s deal. In our estimation, the women were due at least triple what our expired deal was worth in player compensation.”

The men claimed the federation wants their pay to stay at the same level as in their expired contract. “It’s a desperate attempt to cover up the fact that what they did to the women in 2017 is indefensible,” the statement said.
   508. Mefisto Posted: February 14, 2020 at 09:57 AM (#5924396)
Swiss Ramble out with wage data from 2018-9. United had the highest wages in the EPL at 332 million pounds. That's 17 million more than City, almost 50 million more than Chelsea, and almost 60 million more than LFC. To finish 6th.
   509. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5924401)
The funny thing about United is that there are a lot of complaints about the Glazers using the club as a personal "piggy bank" while also a lot of complaints about them having the highest wage bill.

I think the real problem is just that they have not been a well-run club for the last decade.
   510. Mefisto Posted: February 14, 2020 at 10:57 AM (#5924409)
"I think the real problem is just that they have not been a well-run club for the last decade."

True.
   511. Mefisto Posted: February 14, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5924433)
Woah. City banned from CL for the next 2 seasons and fined 30 million Euros.
   512. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 14, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5924438)
Am I overly cynical if I dont think the CL ban actually gets enforced? It seems like these big punishments to big clubs (transfer bans for example) never actually get upheld.

If it does...does fifth place in England take on new importance?
   513. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5924439)
If that holds up, which is a matter of speculation at this point, does it open another spot for the EPL?

edit: coke.
   514. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 14, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5924440)
Am I overly cynical if I dont think the CL ban actually gets enforced? It seems like these big punishments to big clubs (transfer bans for example) never actually get upheld.


Chelsea's transfer ban was at least partially upheld, right? But no, I personally fully expect City to be in the CL next year.

But I think the answer to Jose and AuntBea's question is yes. England gets 4 CL spots, so if one of the top 4 teams is ineligible the 5th placed team would get the spot, right?

If so, we all know there's only one way this ends: Tottenham finishes 5th and then the UEFA decision is overturned. :)
   515. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5924447)
History repeating itself in the Lask/Salzburg tie?

In September, up 2-0 at home early, LASK Was outplayed the rest of the way and had to settle for a 2-2 draw.

Up 0-2 on the road early, Salzburg pulled one back in the first half. Now 1-2 with Salzburg again having the lion's share of the shots.

LASK trails Salzburg by just 2 points for top spot in the table.

edit: uh-oh. Lask scored again. Only 3 games left after today so LASK would have a very good shot at topping the league if they can hold on. (Way behind on GD though, which I think is the first tie breaker.)

edit2: Due to current UEFA rankings, an auto-berth to the CL group stages is not at stake. The Austria top team I think goes to the playoff round, and the second team has to enter the qualifying a couple rounds earlier.
   516. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 14, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5924449)
City's official response

The tl;dr version: the lead investigator at the UEFA has publicly had it out for us since day one, we did nothing wrong and the decision will be overturned.
   517. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5924452)
Turned on the game expecting to see a big push by Salzburg. Not in the last 5 minutes. LASK has been all over them and they seems to be getting support from the stands despite being in Red Bull Arena. Almost scored a couple more goals in the few minutes I was watching.

edit: Salzburg finally got one back off a corner. 2-3 now. They really want to at least get a draw, because LASK has 3 very winnable games remaining. Two against two of the very worst team in the league (one on the road), and another at home at a below average team.
   518. aberg Posted: February 14, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5924462)
I have had a theory since last summer that Pep will be back at Barca next year. Everything that has happened since then- hanging on to the bitter end with Valverde, replacing him with someone on a short-term contract, City looking a bit sluggish, Pep not getting guys he wants in the transfer market, possible City CL ban- has made me believe it more.
   519. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5924463)
LASK holds on to give Salzburg their first, and likely only, loss of the year. Salzburg has a harder remaining schedule, so top spot has to be close to 50/50 now.
   520. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 14, 2020 at 03:12 PM (#5924469)
I have had a theory since last summer that Pep will be back at Barca next year. Everything that has happened since then- hanging on to the bitter end with Valverde, replacing him with someone on a short-term contract, City looking a bit sluggish, Pep not getting guys he wants in the transfer market, possible City CL ban- has made me believe it more.


Pep hasn't seemed quite his usual frenetic self this year, and I too have wondered if it's because his return to Barca is a fait accompli.
   521. The_Ex Posted: February 14, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5924476)
Salzburg sold off three of their best players last month so its cash over titles.

Man City (actually the owner) have threatened to sue UEFA all the way to wherever if takes to get the ban removed and essentially to get FFP killed. The owner has more money than UEFA and can try to bankrupt them to win their case, or get UEFA to back down to save UEFA's money. That and bags of cash.
   522. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5924483)
Wolves goal ruled off on the tightest of offside calls. Ball was played back to the corner taker on a short corner, in a slightly backward direction (corner taker running toward his own goal to receive it), but whether the ball is played backward or not is not part of the rule.
   523. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5924501)
xGD: Leicester +28, Wolves +3
npxGD: Leicester +8.5, Wolves +8.3
   524. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 05:14 PM (#5924504)
Actually they are matching +8.4s on understat.
   525. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5924506)
So it’s just like the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal.

Yes. An Emirati royal using his international airline to deceive UEFA is the soccer equivalent of banging on trash cans in the dugout.

Were the Astros involved in any way?

UEFA didn’t mention them by name, but there’s no way of knowing for sure.
link
   526. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 14, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5924544)
Two big ifs - if Man City really stay banned for next year, and if Tottenham can manage to finish 5th, this would feel kind of like the reverse of when Tottenham got screwed by Chelsea winning the CL.
   527. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 11:04 PM (#5924550)
If City really is barred from Europe next year, home wins by Southampton and Arsenal would put them right back in the running for 8th in the league and a Europa slot. It's nice timing that all 4 teams with 31 points are faced off against each other with potentially something on the line.

I think a win by Burnley would still not be enough to really bring them into the race for 8th. They are not as good as Southampton, and have a slightly harder remaining schedule. And, while I wouldn't put it past Newcastle to beat Arsenal, I'll eat a Newcastle shirt if they finish 8th this year.
   528. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2020 at 11:31 PM (#5924553)
538 has updated their projections to DQ City from the CL. hehe.
   529. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2020 at 07:35 AM (#5924563)
Southampton let the ball go straight in off the corner. And by "let", I mean Ings literally intentionally got out of its way at the near post.
   530. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2020 at 07:51 AM (#5924564)
Some player, Ings. Made up for it on the other end with a really good shot moving laterally at the top of he box and curling it in hard around the defense.
   531. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2020 at 09:29 AM (#5924575)
Forest draws level with West Brom in extra time. 2-2, which is music to the ears of Leeds, Brentford, and Fulham.

2 goals out of 1 shot on target for Forest. (The other an OG.)
   532. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2020 at 09:36 AM (#5924576)
Southampton had all the dangerous possession but turned it into essentially no dangerous shots. Not a good game for them at home. I think that pretty much eliminates them from the Europa chase. Burnley most likely too just isn't good enough. That only leaves the former "top 6", Leicester (virtually assured of CL anyway if we can dream that City really will be banned at least for next year), Wolves, Everton, and Sheffield United.
   533. Dale Sams Posted: February 15, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5924599)
Southampton let the ball go straight in off the corner. And by "let", I mean Ings literally intentionally got out of its way at the near post.


Not only that but WTFFFFFF was the GK doing?? "I'm gonna stand IN the goal and not use my hands!"
   534. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5924603)
Norwich made so many bad decisions the few times they had dangerous possession in the final third. I think it was offside on that great chance that didn't even lead to a shot on the excellent play by Alisson, so that's kind of a wash at least.
   535. Swedish Chef Posted: February 15, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5924606)
Man City (actually the owner) have threatened to sue UEFA all the way to wherever if takes to get the ban removed and essentially to get FFP killed. The owner has more money than UEFA and can try to bankrupt them to win their case, or get UEFA to back down to save UEFA's money. That and bags of cash.

What a dope, UEFA has more than enough resources to fight a lawsuit. He should have tried bribery. Don't those people know anything about how to get #### done in the football world?
   536. Dale Sams Posted: February 15, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5924607)
That last second Brom goal called offside was a bit wacky.

I'm aware that there have to be TWO players between the goal and the player receiving the ball. And that offside contiues past the goal line (see a certain EURO goal allowed because a defender was past the endline)....but its still making my head hurt to rule that goal offside.
   537. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 15, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5924611)
What a dope, UEFA has more than enough resources to fight a lawsuit. He should have tried bribery. Don't those people know anything about how to get #### done in the football world?


Maybe the rest of the English Big Six got together and outbid them?
   538. Dale Sams Posted: February 15, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5924638)
If you all watch footie like I do (after the game is over via YT highlights)....check out the PSG game
   539. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2020 at 04:13 PM (#5924643)
Atalanta has dominated all game but went down early on a defensive mistake and a nice solo effort by Dzeko. 2-1 now though, and if they hold on to win it will be tough for anyone to catch them for the last CL spot next year.

England Championship promotion odds show West Brom and Leeds back in the driver's seat. Brentford has some work to do, and Fulham is touch and go.

West Brom: 85%
Leeds: 74%
Brentford: 54%
Fulham: 34%
Forest: 16%
Preston: 11%
Bristol: 6%

Field: 20%
   540. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2020 at 09:51 AM (#5924710)
Villa's defensive shortcomings are on full display here. True they've had chances on the offensive end, but no surprise Tottenham is winning now. We're only 2/3 of the way through the season so Villa has a chance to get better, but they've been worse on a per game basis than any EPL team over the last 6 years. Not a year for solid defenses in the EPL either. Villa has pretty good competition for worst defensive team in the likes of West Ham, Norwich, and Newcastle.

Worst defensive EPL team of the last several years was Fulham last year, with 1.80 npxGA, and 1.93 xGA (understat). Through 25 games, Newcastle and West Ham are slightly worse in npxGA, and Villa significantly worse (1.98, and likely to get worse today). In xGA, West Ham is slightly worse than Fulham last year, and Villa again the worst (2.07).
   541. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2020 at 11:04 AM (#5924720)
xG was 2.0-4.5 (538). Seems about right. Villa would have stolen a draw without that final error, but sheesh what a ######.
   542. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 16, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5924724)
Classic Mourinho game.
   543. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2020 at 11:26 AM (#5924727)
Per understat, only one team in the Big 4 has been worse defensively in the last 6 years over a full year than Villa has been this year (2.01 npxGA and 2.13 xGA): last year's relegated Hannover. And they were only slightly worse.

This year Dusseldorf has been slightly worse than Villa has been so far, but Lecce has been off the charts bad: 2.08 npxGA and 2.34 xGA! That latter number is really high. Lecce has a decent change to stay up too.
   544. KronicFatigue Posted: February 16, 2020 at 12:17 PM (#5924734)
If you all watch footie like I do (after the game is over via YT highlights)....check out the PSG game


Good stuff, and I should watch highlights like that more often, but I do find it annoying that the score is in the title. Those highlights would have had a much different feel if I didn't know the result

Link for the lazy.
   545. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 16, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5924739)
Someone maintains a site called dtmts.com (Don't Tell Me The Score) for NHL highlights that starts the video blurred out, with a button you can click to unblur it (since NHL.com's highlights, for whatever stupid reason, start by showing the final score in huge letters for a few seconds).

Shame there isn't something like that for soccer highlights.
   546. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5924741)
Not sure Spurs deserve much credit for beating a bad Villa team today, considering their ragged performance, but at least it was on the road. I am sure Arsenal deserves no credit for beating an even worse Newcastle team at home.
   547. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5924750)
EPL relegation battle:

Norwich: 91%
Villa: 51%
Bournemouth: 43%
West Ham: 41%
Watford 34%
Brighton: 19%
Newcastle: 10%
Palace 8%
Southampton: 2%
Burnley: 1%





   548. frannyzoo Posted: February 16, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5924760)
Eibar-RSO postponed because:

The landfill, just over a kilometre away from Eibar’s Ipurua Stadium, collapsed on February 6, trapping two workers who have not yet been found despite an ongoing search. Some of the fires in the waste have still not been extinguished.

Measurements taken this week showed that the levels of dioxins and furans – highly contaminating toxic chemicals that are released into the air when plastic and other materials burn – were 40 times the normal level for urban areas.


As we in the whiny non-motorized advocacy movement say, keep complaining about your lack of car parking, everybody.
   549. frannyzoo Posted: February 16, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5924764)
Starting catching up excited to know more of the Guimaraes/FCP tilt after Benfica lost at home to Braga, but the reality is that [url=https://en.onefootball.com/
   550. frannyzoo Posted: February 16, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5924765)
Starting catching up excited to know more of the Guimaraes/FCP tilt after Benfica lost at home to Braga, but the reality is that [url=https://en.onefootball.com/
   551. frannyzoo Posted: February 16, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5924783)
Apologies that I couldn't seem to edit/delete the double post above. I rather love the primitive (see what I did there?) tech level of the BBTF interface, but it has its disadvantages. Bottom line is that racist chants in Guimaraes ruined what would have been a nice contest and would be a nice country, Portugal.
   552. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5924921)
Neither team looks particularly good in the Chelsea/ManU game.

Maguire easily could have gotten red for a petulant kick out after he himself had been fouled (no call I think) on the sideline. It was a lot like the Son kick out that was given a red on VAR, but VAR here declined to give it. Maybe just a tad more of a push here (and less of a kick out) than Son's was, but that's splitting hairs a bit.
   553. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5924929)
How is that a foul on Azpilicueta but not on Fred? VAR making everything better once again!
   554. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5924931)
VAR steps in again, small push by the Manchester United defender leads to a much larger push from the attacker Azpilecueta on Williams. Announcers insisting it's a "domino effect" but I'm not at all sure about that. Maybe the correct call maybe not, but clear that United catch another break because it could have been ruled the other way.

edit: I think the argument that VAR will make is that the first push would not have been enough for a foul, but the second clearly was. I think that's probably the right call but it's very close and could certainly have been ruled the other way.
   555. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5924935)
Bea is right that this isn’t exactly a well played game but it’s been pretty entertaining.
   556. frannyzoo Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5924938)
Two managers well-beloved by fans as players, and it's Lampard the Younger who looks the worse hire today, so far. It's really all a bit transitional until either of the two get a "real" manager and team, actually. That's how it's all looked so far at the Bridge.

Edit: This VAR search for "perfection" is sh*t, isn't it?
   557. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5924939)
Giroud with a nice run and header, but conclusively offside by the length of his forefoot. 3 inches. This one clearly the right call, but another break for United.
   558. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:48 PM (#5924941)
Edit: This VAR search for "perfection" is sh*t, isn't it?


Yup.

I’m not sure what you do. Bea is right that the call on Giroud was obviously correct but at the same time what’s the point? it doesn’t improve my enjoyment of the game. Obviously eventually there is going to be a line of some type so you still get the same complaints.

The problem I have is the offside rule is meant to protect against cherry picking which is a good thing of course but it just is over the top. Watching the game I hate seeing a goal ruled out retrospectively based on such tiny margins but I don’t know how you avoid it.

tl;dr I hate replay.
   559. . Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5924943)
I'm sitting with a despondent 14 year old Chelsea fan, but I'm not even sure the Giroud call was right. Two guys in motion, you draw a line and look at body parts? Seems like a lot of stock is being put in the precision of when the foot hit the ball. A tenth of a second off and the body parts might align entirely differently. Nor do I even think it should be measured by body parts; for all serious purposes, Giroud was in the same 3-D rectangle as the defender and their "X-coordinates" were identical. When that's the case, it's not really even offside IMO.

The call on Maguire and the disallowed set piece were awful. For every call VAR gets "right," it gets a bunch wrong. It's just like in every sport; you're never ever going to bet able to hit the theoretical, fantasy perfection. It's never going to happen.
   560. Baldrick Posted: February 17, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5924944)
A goofy dumb game turned into a farce by a series of increasingly strange refereeing decisions. I can't say that any single choice was definitively wrong, but in aggregate it sure didn't paint a compelling picture for VAR.
   561. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5924948)
Only the second game that United has won that they were on the short end of xG. would have been even shorter if either of those goals hadn't been waved off. The other one was the game against City.
   562. Mefisto Posted: February 17, 2020 at 06:46 PM (#5924964)
Bea is right that this isn’t exactly a well played game but it’s been pretty entertaining.


It wasn't pretty but I'll take it.
   563. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 17, 2020 at 08:00 PM (#5924991)
Fun side note, as a result of United beating Chelsea, Liverpool become the first team to qualify for the 20/21 Champions League.
   564. Mefisto Posted: February 17, 2020 at 08:20 PM (#5924996)
That's unreal.
   565. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 17, 2020 at 10:23 PM (#5925019)
I thought they had qualified with the win over Norwich.
   566. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2020 at 11:18 PM (#5925027)
Betting odds (%) Top4 and Top6 actual, Top5 estimated.

Team                Top4  Top5  Top6 
Leicester           86    95    98   
Chelsea             49    66    84   
Tottenham           30    52    72   
Manchester United   17    37    55    
Wolverhampton       6.5   19    31.5  
Sheffield United    6.5   14    23.5  
Arsenal             3     10    18.5  
Everton             2     7     14.5  
Burnley             0     0     2     
Southampton         0     0     1      


Of all the teams with at least 2% chance to win the Europa League, only Arsenal are considered to have a harder path to the CL via their league. Arsenal are just over 10% to win Europa. This is the case even if City gets reinstated for next year (Manchester United is given 12% chance to win Europa, and Wolves 6%).
   567. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2020 at 11:44 PM (#5925028)
Champions League odds to advance (most to least likely

Juventus    (Lyon)         86
Bayern      (Chelsea)      79
Barcelona   (Napoli)       76
Liverpool   (Atletico)     75 
PSG         (Dortmund)     73
ManCity     (Real Madrid)  63
Atalanta    (Valencia)     56   (the odds here have moved towards Atalanta a bit)    
Leipzig     (Tottenham)    54   (moved towards Leipzig a little bit)


Despite the odds above, City is given slightly better odds than Liverpool to win the whole thing (18% versus 17%), meaning that they are still considered the better team.
   568. manchestermets Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:38 AM (#5925038)
I thought they had qualified with the win over Norwich.


Yeah, I'm not sure how a team already in the top 4 getting beaten could mean that they qualified last night - it's the fifth* placed team they need to worry about catching them.

*Or sixth, TBC.
   569. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 18, 2020 at 05:38 AM (#5925039)
Yeah, I'm not sure how a team already in the top 4 getting beaten could mean that they qualified last night - it's the fifth* placed team they need to worry about catching them.

It puts Chelsea in 4th 35 points behind, and Spurs in 5th 36 points behind, with 12 to play. Since Chelsea and Spurs play each other, both of them cannot win out the rest of the way. If Chelsea had won, it would have put them 32 points behind, and they could have lost to Spurs, and both of them could have theoretically still passed/tied Liverpool for points.

Edit: Tired, and simple math is hard.
   570. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 18, 2020 at 07:32 AM (#5925042)
And now Son is likely out for a couple months. Spurs are going to score approximately 0 goals with Kane and Son out.
   571. Mefisto Posted: February 18, 2020 at 09:44 AM (#5925056)
They're going to need to re-calculate all those odds in 566-7.
   572. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 09:54 AM (#5925061)
Leipzig now 58% to advance over Tottenham. Top 4 odds down 2 to 3%.

edit: there are actually a few top5 lines out now. The numbers above are pretty close to the lines though, all within a couple percentage points of what is out there now. Burnley actually is given 1%.
   573. The Marksist Posted: February 18, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5925168)
Liverpool have gone the whole season so far without a single "sh*t happens" moment. Feels like we were due.
   574. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:03 PM (#5925173)
Only 2 shots from PSG in that first half, and only 3 for Liverpool.
   575. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5925174)
Origi in for Mane. That's a shocker unless Mane is injured.
   576. Mefisto Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5925177)
Origi not doing much to justify the change so far.
   577. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5925178)
I was about to say the same thing! He hasn't been good.
   578. Mefisto Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:27 PM (#5925179)
That's the Morata we all know and love.
   579. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5925181)
Lucky bounce goes Haaland's way and he reacts very quickly and scores another tap-in! 1-0 Dortmund.
   580. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5925182)
Missed the equalizer for PSG, but that Haaland shot to go back ahead surely was sweetly struck.
   581. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5925186)
So in a game where Liverpool really wants a goal down 1-0, Klopp takes off Mane after 45 minutes and Salah after 71 minutes. Then gets a yellow card.
   582. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5925187)
Missed the equalizer for PSG, but that Haaland shot to go back ahead surely was sweetly struck.

The equalizer was really far too easy. Mbappe ran past 2 defenders down the right. Clownshoes defending. Then put it across goal for an easy tap in for Neymar. Really disappointing, considering how well they defended the rest of the game.
   583. Mefisto Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5925188)
First time all year that I thought Liverpool looked tired. Could be that AM are just really good at defending, though.
   584. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5925190)
xG in the Dortmund/PSG game was close: 1.6-1.3 (538). PSG probably a slight favorite to advance going into the second leg.
xG in the Atletico/Liverpool game was also close: 0.9-0.6. Liverpool maybe 50/50 to advance now, due to the away goals problem.

Should be no surprise, but non-shot xG in both games favored the losers. PSG had a slight edge, and Liverpool a large edge.

Manchester City is now your very clear favorite to win the CL.

   585. spivey Posted: February 18, 2020 at 05:08 PM (#5925194)
I guess Haaland really is all that. Both ties are now very delicately poised for the return legs.
   586. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 18, 2020 at 05:22 PM (#5925196)
xG in the Dortmund/PSG game was close: 1.6-1.3 (538). PSG probably a slight favorite to advance going into the second leg.
xG in the Atletico/Liverpool game was also close: 0.9-0.6. Liverpool maybe 50/50 to advance now, due to the away goals problem.

Should be no surprise, but non-shot xG in both games favored the losers. PSG had a slight edge, and Liverpool a large edge.

Well I may be biased, but I watched the whole game, and those numbers do not line up at all with what I watched. PSG did nothing all game.
   587. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5925211)
Didn't see much of the Dortmnud game, but...

PSG had more of the possession and many more passes, which usually but not always means a higher non-shot xG (have to get possession in the box too, but that usually follows possession/passes at least somewhat). They also only won the non-shot xG by a tiny bit. They had 10 shots to Dortmund's 12, including a couple in the last few minutes. They had the tap in (highest xG shot of the game) as well.

Also, by "no surprise" I meant based on the style and expected relative quality of the teams, not the actual game. Was generally supported by the stats though.

Early betting odds have Dortmund/PSG as pretty much exactly 50/50, and Liverpool very slight favorites over Atleti.

Perceived quality of teams coming in to the KOs, based on betting odds (taking into account first round opposition)

1) City
2) Liverpool (not that far behind)
--gap--
3/4/5 Bayern/Barcelona/PSG
--smaller gap--
6) Real Madrid
7) Juventus
   588. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5925222)
Other systems (MCoA, Infogol) were even more favorable to PSG, and less favorable to Liverpool. MCoA had the edge in xGD as 0.2 (1.4-1.2), and Infogol actually had PSG winning the xG battle! (ok by only 0.02, so they effectively had it as a draw).

Liverpool heavily dominated non-shot xG, but the other systems had them losing out on xG by about 0.5.
   589. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 18, 2020 at 07:27 PM (#5925224)
Liverpool were good but despite the possession and crosses I don’t recall them really having a particularly good chance or Oblak having to make a great save. I didn’t see the whole game but I saw most of it.
   590. Mefisto Posted: February 18, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5925231)
Oblak not only didn't have to make any great saves, he didn't have to make any at all. Liverpool only took 8 shots, none on goal.
   591. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: February 18, 2020 at 08:32 PM (#5925238)
This season can just #### off now ...

José Mourinho expects Son Heung-min to miss the rest of the season with a fractured arm
   592. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: February 18, 2020 at 08:55 PM (#5925246)
Coke to Biff
   593. Richard Posted: February 18, 2020 at 09:22 PM (#5925249)
Is it really necessary to drag out the CL round of 16 over 4 weeks?
   594. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 18, 2020 at 10:24 PM (#5925261)
It’s great! Of course I think that largely because I’m always in Florida on vacation for the two weeks of the second legs. Watching those games at the cigar bar is a lot of fun.
   595. The Marksist Posted: February 19, 2020 at 09:17 AM (#5925296)
I think it's weird how quickly a standard narrative about a game develops in the media based solely on the final score. Liverpool got got by a lucky bounce on a corner and then Athleti did what Athleti do. Liverpool pushed, but couldn't cut through maybe the world's most organized and committed defensive machine. This is about exactly what I expected going in (baring the weird bounce = goal in the 4th minute) and I honestly don't understand how anyone could have expected different? But I've seen like 3-5 headlines talking about how Simeone "outfoxed" Liverpool or Liverpool were terrible, etc. They weren't amazing, but Athleti are literally designed to make good teams look like they're "out of ideas" in attack. This shouldn't be surprising, right?
   596. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 19, 2020 at 09:36 AM (#5925300)
It is mostly just the final score, and it's always disappointing. That said, I think here it's also worth mentioning that Liverpool is on an unbelievable hot streak in the league and are heavily overrated by the media, while Atletico is the opposite--their underlying numbers are no worse than in past years but they are underperforming in the league for the first time in years under Simeone, largely because they have been terrible at finishing their xG chances at the offensive end (worst in La Liga by far this year, and worst in the big 4 as well). That's as likely to be bad fortune as it is a fundamentally different team than they've had in the past.
   597. frannyzoo Posted: February 19, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5925407)
Naturally, all three available channels here will have Spurs/RB and zero will telecast Atalanta/Valencia. As it fits my irrational vengeance narrative, I blame Mourinho.
   598. jmurph Posted: February 19, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5925409)
Naturally, all three available channels here will have Spurs/RB and zero will telecast Atalanta/Valencia. As it fits my irrational vengeance narrative, I blame Mourinho.

I'm planning to take off work next week to watch City/Madrid, and I fully expect that to somehow be relegated to BRLive because Turner has managed all of this so badly.
   599. frannyzoo Posted: February 19, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5925434)
I don't mind not watching Atalanta if every unseen match goes as the first 60 has gone today.

Edit: Damn hubris! Valencia scores immediately upon my posting!
   600. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 19, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5925435)
4 goals on 4 shots on goal for Atalanta.
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