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Tuesday, November 03, 2020

OT - Soccer Thread - Winter Is Here

Not sure why the other thread no longer allows comments but…new thread!

Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 03, 2020 at 11:16 AM | 702 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   101. jmurph Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5990854)
There was no intent to play the ball with his hand, so it isn't a handball.

A player intentionally plays the ball with his arm/hand in the box like... twice a season, league wide? Five times? This approach basically eliminates handballs in the box.
   102. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5990860)
And?
   103. jmurph Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5990862)
I personally think that's a pretty radical change to the game, just taking note of that.
   104. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5990873)
Don't get used to the current handball rules! This just in from IFAB for the 2021-2022 season:

As well as focusing on concussion substitutes, the panels also concluded there was a need to offer "clarification" on changes to the handball law which were made in 2019.

"It was re-emphasised that the final judgement remains with the referee and not every touch of a player's hand/arm with the ball is an offence and, in terms of a definition of the term 'unnaturally bigger', referees should judge the position of the hand/arm in relation to the player's movement in that phase of play," the IFAB statement read.


So, subjectivity is the rage again. What's old is new.
   105. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5990910)
Goals in EPL Season so far. Recent yearly average is about 2.75 per game.

                        Total           per game
first 44 games          164             3.73
last 44 games           101             2.30

all 88 games            265             3.01
   106. Richard Posted: November 23, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5990920)
I feel bad for Richard. Quite the whiplash year over year.


I've seen us relegated 4 times, including a relegation from the PL with the last kick of the game with 3 other results going against us to send us down. Nothing can be as bad as that was.
   107. Mefisto Posted: November 25, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5991095)
The Hand of God has taken Maradona.
   108. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5991112)
A win by Gladbach here would really up the stakes in the Inter/RealMadrid game later today.
   109. manchestermets Posted: November 25, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5991122)
I don't know if he was the best player ever, because I don't think that's a call anyone can really make but 1986 was without any doubt the best individual performance in a World Cup.
   110. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2020 at 03:41 PM (#5991130)
Inter looked second best, and then Vidal was sent off for petulance. That's probably it for Inter. Assuming they lose today, they can still advance over the loser of the Gladbach/RealMadrid game, with help. If that game ends in a draw Inter would be out.
   111. spivey Posted: November 25, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5991152)
I was thinking that Inter could somehow manage to shithouse a victory over BMG, and advance over them despite having a negative GD and BMG having a GD of like +8. That would be absurd, and the exact kind of scenario in which I didn't like moving off of GD.
   112. spivey Posted: November 25, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5991154)
Good to see Atalanta didn't absolutely fold again against Liverpool.
   113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5991162)
If Atletico doesn't get a goal here, they could easily end up in a situation where they need a result at Salzburg in the last game to advance. That would hardly be ideal.
   114. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5991163)
Liverpool has 2 shots total. Against Atalanta. At home.

edit: turns out it is 4, with two from way out.
   115. spivey Posted: November 25, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5991202)
Salzburg basically played Bayern to an xG standstill over 2 legs, and still lost 9-3 on aggregate.

Bayern is starting to show some cracks this year. Their xGA is like 7th or 8th in the Bundesliga right now. They're getting insane finishing from their top guys, so it's papered over it. But I don't think they look nearly as dominant as they did before.

There's actually a decent chance Salzburg doesn't even make it into Europa, which would be such awful luck.
   116. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5991248)
                  current  after R3  after R2  after R1  original  delta (v original)
Group A                                        
Bayern               100       99       97       95       89        +11         
Atlético              81       82       86       75       72         +9
Salzburg              16       17       12       23       30        -14    
Lokomotiv Moskva       3        2        5        7        9         -6

Group B
Real Madrid           94       75       58       60       82        +12
Mönchengladbach       82       61       44       40       35        +47
Internazionale        16       43       56       58       64        -48
Shakhtar Donetsk       9       21       42       42       19        -10    

Group C
Manchester City      100       99       98       96       93         +7
Porto                 99       85       63       45       51        +48
Olympiacos             1       13       23       36       20        -19
Marseille              0        3       16       23       36        -36 

Group D
Liverpool             95       99       95       93       89         +6
Atalanta              61       55       71       76       59         +2
Ajax                  44       47       32       27       45         -1
Midtjylland            0        1        2        4        7         -7

Group E
Chelsea              100       98       88       78       75        +25 (could this group be any more boring?)
Sevilla              100       97       85       76       69        +31 (no, it could not)
Rennes                 0        3       17       29       38        -38
Krasnodar              0        2       10       19       18        -18 

Group F
Dortmund              99       93       83       69       79        +20 
Lazio                 90       81       78       79       62        +28
Club Brugge           11       18       28       30       15         -4
Zenit                  0        8       11       22       44        -44

Group G
Barcelona            100       99       98       94       89        +11 (also very boring)
Juventus             100       97       94       94       89        +11
Dynamo Kyiv            0        3        5       9        15        -12
Ferencváros            0        1        3       3         7         -6

Group H
Manchester United     85       80         88       78       66      +19
PSG                   69       65         78       68       81      -12
Leipzig               45       49         32       49       43       +2
Basaksehir             1        6          2        5       10       -9


We have one upset to advance almost wrapped up (Gladbach), and another couple still in the cards (Leipzig and Ajax). Salzburg and Brugge still long shots.

About time to consider putting effort into winning the group. With Bayern/City/Barca all virtually assured, and Dortmund and Liverpool very likely to finish top, the contenders in the other three groups all would very much like to win their group.

Chelsea/Sevilla next week is a big one here. A draw will probably be enough for Chelsea.
Then Real Madrid is still pretty big favorites to be group winner, but if Gladbach can beat Inter at home in the next game it would probably be 50/50.
That leaves United, who can wrap it up with a win against PSG or a couple draws. A loss against PSG means PSG likely would get top spot, unless it is a 0-1 or 1-2 loss, which gives United a second shot at it against Leipzig.

edit: if there is anyone that cares about Europa, all the groups without a real battle for qualification now have a battle for third spot, except Olympiacos has pretty much wrapped it up in their group. Inter could be playing for Europa in their final group game against Shakhtar.
   117. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5991263)
I wonder if the Name Game was ever popular in France.
   118. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5991274)
Ludogrets had no shots against Spurs, I think.

Alkmaar with the home 0-0 draw against Sociedad. It's an ok result for them, but they will now need a draw against Napoli and some help. Even that might not be enough if they get unlucky with the three-way tiebreaker.
   119. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 27, 2020 at 10:22 AM (#5991306)
Can you scholars and gentlemen recommend me a soccer book or two? I purposefully leave the question open ended; I'll read anything that's well written.
   120. Mefisto Posted: November 27, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5991307)
Inverting the Pyramid.
   121. ckash Posted: November 27, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5991311)
Inverting the Pyramid is essential.

Others I like:

Soccer In Sun and Shadow
The Miracle of Castel di Sangro
The Mixer
Zonal Marking
Soccer Men
Angels With Dirty Faces
The Barcelona Inheritance

You pretty much can't go wrong with anything written by Jonathan Wilson.
   122. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 27, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5991317)
Watching the USWNT and it seems like everything is happening underwater. It’s all a bit slow, they seem to be half a step behind on plays. They don’t look bad, they are dominating possession and everything is happening in the Dutch third of the field but not much for chances (as I say that Williams gets a really good look but puts it a hair over the bar).
   123. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5991338)
Puskas nominations are out.

Dundalk may have 0 points in their Europa group, but I'm in awe of the nominated goal by their player, Flores. Michael Cox (of Zonal Marking) apparently calls it "one of three that are identical", bit that undersells it dramatically. The ball was volleyed shoulder/head high with the other foot on the ground, something I have rarely if ever seen, and hit with an absolutely incredible velocity.

Not saying it surely should win, but I'd put in in the top three. The other two "identical" shots were just run of the mill very good / great goals (IMHO).
   124. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5991341)
It's a different technique, but I always loved this Falcao goal as well, for similar reasons.
   125. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5991345)
Adding understat xG to the chart above. It's currently pretty much right on the expected (2.75 per game) coming into the year.

                        goals (per game)   understat xG  (per game)
first 44 games          164    3.73             130.6     2.97
last 44 games           101    2.30             111.5     2.53 

all 88 games            265    3.01             242.1     2.75
   126. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 09:29 AM (#5991380)
I'm happy Brighton pulled one back with the penalty at the end, even though it was a little soft. Liverpool had no business winning that game, considering they were outplayed most of the game.
   127. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 09:52 AM (#5991381)
Klopp is annoyed (quite understandably) that his team didn't win and his players are all hurt. However, picking on the interviewer and blaming the broadcasters for the scheduling is bad form. Klopp is acting like his team and league is being held hostage by the greedy television broadcasters, who are forcing Liverpool to play early games on Saturday. Pretty sure this was a choice the EPL, and by extension the teams, wanted as much as anyone else.
   128. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 10:01 AM (#5991382)
Bayern and Dortmund both down early. Leipzig being outplayed early as well. Union Berlin up 2-1 against Frankfurt, and currently with the 4th best non-pen xGD in the Bundesliga, after the three powerhouse teams. What. Is. Happening.

(Union Berlin hasn't played most of the best teams yet, including the top 3 plus Leverkusen and Wolfsburg, but it's still quite the hot start.)
   129. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5991384)
Liverpool was a small favorite to win the league coming into the games today. City probably will pass them again after these games.
   130. spivey Posted: November 28, 2020 at 10:28 AM (#5991386)
I remember thinking he was pretty good when he first joined City, but Benjamin Mendy just seems well below the standard of City at LB.
   131. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 28, 2020 at 10:47 AM (#5991389)
Klopp is annoyed (quite understandably) that his team didn't win and his players are all hurt. However, picking on the interviewer and blaming the broadcasters for the scheduling is bad form. Klopp is acting like his team and league is being held hostage by the greedy television broadcasters, who are forcing Liverpool to play early games on Saturday. Pretty sure this was a choice the EPL, and by extension the teams, wanted as much as anyone else.


I don’t think Klopp is wrong. The league went along with it (and that includes FSG) but I’m sure the broadcasters are driving it. It certainly seems like we are seeing a big uptick in muscle strains and the like and the fixture congestion presumably has a lot to do with that. Liverpool aren’t worse off than any other top team and have the resources to compensate for it but I think the schedule is undeniably causing problems for teams. Of course if the schedule were adjusted and TV money reduced Klopp and other managers would ##### about not being able to make transfers to help their sides.

Unrelated, when did ESPN get the Bundesliga? I feel like I watched previous weeks on Fox. Maybe I’m struggling with the fixture congestion too.
   132. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 28, 2020 at 10:52 AM (#5991390)
Well, I didn’t have Cologne beating Dortmund today but 2-0 in the 61st it looks good.
   133. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 28, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5991391)
I remember thinking he was pretty good when he first joined City, but Benjamin Mendy just seems well below the standard of City at LB.


Reverse jinx!
   134. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5991393)

I don’t think Klopp is wrong. The league went along with it (and that includes FSG) but I’m sure the broadcasters are driving it. It certainly seems like we are seeing a big uptick in muscle strains and the like and the fixture congestion presumably has a lot to do with that. Liverpool aren’t worse off than any other top team and have the resources to compensate for it but I think the schedule is undeniably causing problems for teams. Of course if the schedule were adjusted and TV money reduced Klopp and other managers would ##### about not being able to make transfers to help their sides.


Isn't this a contractual arrangement the league agreed into specifically to maximize money? How is that the broadcasters fault? Are they being asked to renegotiate based on unforeseen events and refusing? It doesn't seem like anything unforeseen is happening, or the EPL is asking to negotiate a different contract for (presumably) less money. This was an arrangement agreed to by the broadcasters, EPL and Liverpool, all, to maximize cash. Maybe I don't understand UK economics, but does the EPL and teams like Liverpool really have so little power in this situation that it makes sense to blame someone else?

As far as I am concerned, if you wanted to have all these games you were willing to have players out often with injury, or heavily rotated teams. Everyone knew that going in.
   135. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 28, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5991397)
Just saw the interview with Klopp, he definitely was unfair to the guy trying to do the interview who rightly was saying “hey, it’s not me and you need to talk to the ownership.” Which I agree with. However, I think he is still not entirely wrong on his point.

Isn't this a contractual arrangement the league agreed into specifically to maximize money? How is that the broadcasters fault? Are they being asked to renegotiate based on unforeseen events and refusing?


I think the general situation is unforeseen. I don’t know the details of the negotiations between the league and the broadcasters but I think it’s likely that the broadcasters were saying “hey, if we can’t get the games we want we are going to pay less.” That’s not unreasonable on the part of the broadcasters but I think they deserve some criticism for that. Having said that let me be clear, the league and the teams deserve equal (if not more) criticism.for agreeing to it. It’s a crummy situation all around and everyone involved needs to figure out a way to balance the money, the player protection and the general issues.

I want to be clear here, I’m not saying the broadcasters are 100% at fault or even close to it. I have no problem with the manager defending his players even if he didn’t entirely do it the right way.

Anyone watching NBCSN right now I think the discussion between Robbie, Tim and Rebecca has been really good and even-handed.
   136. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5991414)
I have no problem with the manager defending his players even if he didn’t entirely do it the right way.
Right, but he's not doing it the right way. He's been blaming the broadcasters for months it seems, rather than admit the league, and by extension his own team, bear as much or more of then responsibility. He made excuses for not rotating and the fact there are only 3 subs rather than 5, neither of which have anything to do with the broadcasters.

If he wants to say he's upset and all sides should look for solutions, starting with his own league and team and including the broadcasters, I'd be fully in support of him. Instead he sounds like every coach when his players are unavailable and his team doesn't win, pointing fingers everywhere else. It's a bad look.
   137. spivey Posted: November 28, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5991427)
I agree with the general points made here as it relates to the congestion. I think that Klopp needs to acknowledge that nobody wants to see their piece of the pie made smaller, including the team. I think part of his attitude is that Liverpool got picked for the early game slot, that a later slot would have been better. I’m somewhat sensitive to that but again the big teams are big draws. Their match against Atalanta was at home so it’s not like they were traveling back across the continent either. It’s not different from what Spurs and Arsenal are having to do tomorrow, though maybe a slightly worse sleep the night before the game.

If something actually could have been done, I’d have wanted it to be the big leagues considering paying the national teams off so pointless friendlies and maybe even the Nations League weren’t played. I realize the CONMEBOL WC qualifiers were going on so maybe there isn’t really away to avoid that, but other players getting breaks as opposed to additional games plus COVID risk would have been good. Maybe some of that isn’t feasible.
But from my perspective, nobody with a financial stake really wants to do the compromising on their end.
   138. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5991429)
EPL goals and goals per game, with understat xG. League average for this year was expected to be around 2.75 goals per game.
                        goals (per game)     xG   (per game)
first 46 games          171    3.72        135.5    2.95
last 46 games           104    2.26        118.1    2.57 

all 92 games            275    2.99        253.6    2.76
   139. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5991440)
Sheffield United can't buy a point. Predictably, they outplayed this terrible West Brom team, but they lost anyway. Infogol and 538 had United with over 3 xG.

I fully expect West Brom to be relegated at the end of the year, but now Sheffield United is odds on as well.
   140. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2020 at 09:12 PM (#5991449)
Betting odds to win the EPL (%):
ManCity       33
Liverpool     31
Chelsea       14.5
Tottenham     14
Leicester      2.5
ManUtd         2.5
Arsenal        1
Field          1.5


   141. Pirate Joe Posted: November 28, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5991451)
Klopp is also the guy who complains that the fixture list is causing guys to have to play too much, and then doesn't make two of his subs until the 89th minute last Sunday.

Guy are playing too much and it's causing injuries, so let's fix that by playing guys more and not substituting in games, just in case the fact that I'm playing guys more helps get one or two of them hurt.

   142. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 28, 2020 at 10:16 PM (#5991455)
We talk a lot about all the inconvenience the piles of injuries, caused in large part by the packed schedule, create for managers. Which is interesting because it's not the managers that have their careers interrupted by arduous and painful rehab.

True, the players at the EPL level are very well compensated for their pain and effort. Not nearly as well as the owners who pack the schedule, though!
   143. spivey Posted: November 28, 2020 at 10:58 PM (#5991456)
I still feel like Tottenham and Chelsea are too high. But maybe not. Liverpool looks like they could literally break down.

I still worry about City though. They looked pretty good today and in the CL, and whatever talk about the Mourinho Masterclass you want to do, City still outplayed Spurs in that match. Even if you want to be generous and say it was just by a little. They're starting to get healthy and their offense is still very dangerous. Ruben Dias looks like a player, which I think will help them not be so pragmatic in possession.
   144. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 10:24 AM (#5991470)
United is completely dominating this game but is still behind. Numerous missed chances on the offensive end, another fantastic free kick by Ward-Prowse at the other end. A very good corner from Ward-Prowse as well for the second goal, but that goal was mostly created from Southampton intentionally targeting DDG's weakness on crosses. Southampton packed the 6-yard box hoping that DDG wouldn't be able/willing to fight his way through bodies to get to a cross right into the 6-yard box, which is where Ward-Prowse put it.

DDG knocked his knee against the post on the Ward-Prowse goal, and Henderson replaced him at half time.
   145. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 29, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5991471)
It isn't a high bar to clear, but United Cavani is a lot better than United Falcao.
   146. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 29, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5991472)
Fergie time is back!



.... hopefully
   147. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5991473)
It's the Cavani show today.
   148. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5991474)
I only watched the second half, but United have looked really good, it pains me to say. Southampton aren't a pushover, either.
   149. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5991478)
They were good in both halves, but turned on the urgency a bit in the second half, so had twice the chances.

Draws can be moral victories, but except for teams trying to avoid relegation, or overmatched teams holding onto a draw late in a game (maybe even Southampton today), it's pretty much always worth pushing hard for the victory at the end of the game. Sometimes I think teams settle too much.
   150. manchestermets Posted: November 29, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5991479)
Sometimes I think teams settle too much.


Okay, it didn't work out for him today - thankfully - but I like Ralph Hasenhüttl's habit of making an attacking substitution towards the end of games they're ahead in. Don't just sit there waiting for the opposition to score, give them something to think about.
   151. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5991482)
No noticable EPL HFA this year still. Home teams are 35-18-41 (W-D-L), with one game left before we are a quarter of the way through the season. Teams have done slightly better at home in non-pen xGD than on the road, but it's slight, and xPoints is basically equal home and road.

Until they start letting fans in, my default assumption for the EPL is no, or very little HFA.
   152. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5991483)
This Chelsea/Tottenham match is probably boring for a neutral, but is pretty tense as a fan. Both teams have a bunch of dangerous attackers, and as such are playing fairly pragmatic.
   153. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 29, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5991487)
I would love to get into the heads of the players, I suspect the intensity on the pitch is much greater than it appears to those of us watching.
   154. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5991488)
Tottenham's passing and ball retention has been pretty awful this half.
   155. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5991490)
A point for both teams very probably lowers both teams' chances for making the CL this year, albeit only very slightly. Definitely lowers both teams chances of winning the league.

   156. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5991491)
Tottenham really needs a guy like Sabitzer to replace Sissoko in the double pivot. Sissoko's inability to pass or dribble in the tight spaces, being in the middle of the pitch, really kind of breaks down the ability to retain possession well against top teams.
   157. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5991492)
Tottenham's basically had no xG since the first 10-15 minutes.
   158. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5991493)
That shot that Chelsea gifted to Lo Celso in injury time was the only Spurs shot in the second half.
   159. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5991494)
A couple of very weird chances for each team in stoppage time after 90 minutes of very pragmatic football is kind of amusing.
   160. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5991495)
Chelsea got the slight better of it, though a draw is fair, I think. Chelsea had a couple of half chances from Tammy Abraham that are hard to put on xG because they were in decent spots but his body was contorted to all hell as he was completely focused on getting around his defender.
   161. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5991496)
According to 538, which still has a pretty big HFA, Chelsea's odds of reaching the CL dropped but Spurs stayed level. Both teams' chances of winning the league fell. Adjusting for less/no HFA, odds fell all around.

What a waste and what a bore. #### Mourinho.
   162. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5991498)
Tottenham didn't play exciting football, but playing without their best CB, and Chelsea's team is just better, imo, I can live with it. Ndombele seems pretty fit and it would have been nice if for the last 25 minutes Lo Celso came on for Sissoko rather than Ndombele. Of course, that would have been an attacking change.
   163. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5991499)
A draw was at best fair-ish. Spurs did nothing and deserved no more than a draw, under any circumstances, ever. Chelsea arguably deserved half a win.

None of the chances were given as big chances by 538 and infogol, and still Chelses had the better of xG by 1.0-0.2 (538), 0.86-0.19 (infogol), 0.9-0.2 (MCoA), and 0.97 to 0.23 (understat).

The first half was cagey but relatively even. The second half was all Chelsea and I doubt they are happy with the draw.
   164. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5991501)
Imo that underrates Bergwijn's first chance, but yeah, that looks about right. 538 had non-shot xG about, Chelsea up 1.1-0.9

I think Spurs slightly won the first half. Chelsea somewhat comfortably won the second half, and as a result, the game.

Bergwijn needs to start scoring more goals. His xG+A/90 is around 0.25, which is too low for a winger.
   165. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5991505)
Under normal circumstances, a road draw to a rival of roughly equal quality is a very good result, and that applies both for a spot in Europe and winning the league. It's an even better result if the other team is slightly better, which Chelsea could easily be.

However, these are not normal circumstances. There seems to be no HFA across the big 4 leagues, due to lack of crowds. Home teams are 129-96-134 (W-D-L) across the big 4 (basically equivalent to a full season's worth of games). At least when playing domestically, I think it's probably wrong to think of 1 point as a good result on the road, unless your team is just significantly inferior to the opposition. You certainly can't win the league settling for the point on the road right now.
   166. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5991509)
Very bad cash of heads between Luiz and Jimenez. Jimenez looked to be out cold for 5 minutes or more. They finally stretchered him off after close to 10 minutes. Luiz was down for a few minutes, but got up and looked to mostly recover, with a gash to the head.

All the players immediately called for the physios, I think because they saw Jimenez, and maybe Luiz, out cold.

edit: Luiz came back on pretty much right away after the restart. Jimenez was subbed immediately.
   167. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 29, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5991518)
Revolution leading 2-1 on the hour mark and Orlando player goes in studs up above the ball and gets sent off. It’s a clear red but what strikes me is how badly Nani lost it on the official and only got a yellow. Twellman was up in arms about it, Nani grabbed the official multiple times. I’d really like to see soccer take more foreceful action on this kind of thing. This is hardly unique to MLS, when players lose it on the officials they get a lot more wiggle room than other sports allow.
   168. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5991519)
Almost no evident home field advantage so far in the CL and EL group stages:

CL: 27-12-25 (W-D-L)
EL: 42-15-39 (W-D-L)

   169. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5991521)
According to clubelo.com's methodology, all the top 5 leagues plus the CL and EL reached their lowest HFA in 2020, except La Liga.
   170. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 07:27 PM (#5991532)
Updated betting odds to win the EPL:
ManCity        33
Liverpool      32
Chelsea        13.5
Tottenham      13.5
ManUnited       3.5
Leicester       2.8
Field           1.7
   171. spivey Posted: November 29, 2020 at 07:50 PM (#5991533)
Realize they have loads of injuries, but after Liverpool getting pretty thoroughly bossed by both Atalanta and Brighton, I think City is the favorite for me. I think I'm inclined to have Chelsea second. Since they got Silva and Mendy, they are playing quite well. Their front line has a ton of depth so there should always be 3 goal scorers on the pitch.
   172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2020 at 09:22 PM (#5991541)
top 4 betting odds:
ManCity        88
Liverpool      87
Chelsea        66
Tottenham      64
ManUnited      35
Leicester      22
Arsenal        10.5
Everton         7.5
Wolves          5.5
Southampton     4
Villa           3.5
West Ham        3
Leeds           3
Brighton        0.5
Field           0.5
   173. jmurph Posted: November 30, 2020 at 08:08 AM (#5991561)
Arsenal being in what seems like a well-earned 14th place after 10 matches is really something.
   174. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: November 30, 2020 at 09:23 AM (#5991575)
Very bad cash of heads between Luiz and Jimenez. Jimenez looked to be out cold for 5 minutes or more. They finally stretchered him off after close to 10 minutes.


Jimenez had a fractured skull. Underwent surgery and is recovering.
Yikes.
Luiz returned with his head bandaged and played the remainder of the half, even though he was visibly bleeding through the bandage, and was removed at half time after expressing hesitation at heading the ball:
“David wanted to continue but at half-time we decided to take him out because he wasn’t comfortable heading the ball.”
   175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5991616)
Fulham looks very sketchy on defense, but have given Leicester fits on the break a number of times already. Fulham up 0-2 now.
   176. spivey Posted: November 30, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5991617)
I don't pay attention to the Scottish Premier League much, but it looks like Rangers are in very, very good position to finally end the Celtic run of league titles. Rangers are up 11 points (albeit with 2 games in hand), and have a GD of 41-3. Rangers also have looked pretty game in the Europa League as well, drawing Benfica twice in pretty entertaining games that Rangers won the xG on both times. Benfica is off their best right now but are consistently one of the best non-Big 5 teams in Europe. Gerrard seems to have done a pretty good job, and will be interesting to see what's next for him. I think he's probably ready to take another step before Klopp leaves Liverpool.
   177. spivey Posted: November 30, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5991618)
I've started listening to the Double Pivot podcast more regularly. Michael Caley (formerly of bbtf fame!) is pretty down on Leicester this year, and I think rightfully so. Of course some of that is the injuries, but I think their non-pen xGD is even this year, and they were mediocre if not outright bad for most of the second half of last season. They've got some good attacking players, but without Soyunchu or Ndidi, their team is pretty unbalanced imo.
   178. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5991622)
Leicester non-pen xGD has been below even, actually.

538: -2.8 (-4.2 non-shot xG)
understat: -3.37
infogol: -4.1
fbref: -2.7

Basically they've been save by penalties (8 for, 0 against, prior to today). Even if you regress penalty xG 50%, Leicester would still be flat.
   179. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5991626)
As for Rangers, I watched parts of both those games against Benfica, and Rangers were quite good in both games, certainly appeared to be at least Benfica's equal on the days.

Celtic, on the other hand, looked very poor in the parts of the Europa games of theirs I watched.
   180. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 02:29 PM (#5991635)
Well that was a fun game. Have to wonder how a striker like Mitrovic chooses to pass rather than shoot at an empty goal, but it didn't matter.
   181. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5991645)
So who's the 6th-best team in the EPL? Right now there seems to be a gap between Manchester United (or, if you prefer, Spurs or even Chelsea), and the next team. 538, for example, now has a huge 6-point gap between Spurs in 5th (with ManUtd slightly ahead) and Arsenal in 6th (with Leicester and Wolves slightly behind). I think its still likely one of those 3 teams, but a number of other teams could make a claim by the end of the year, including Everton, West Ham, and even Leeds, Southampton or Villa.

As far as end-of-season projections, Arsenal is probably still projected 6th, with Leicester, Wolves, and Everton still 7-9.
   182. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 30, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5991655)
The guy who did shoot it should have ran to the corner with the ball instead.
   183. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5991662)
Only if you don't believe in fun! How boring would that have been?

(It turned out that the ball was deflected on the shot and went out for a corner, which effectively ended the game anyway.)
   184. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5991674)
Villa has now missed two huge chances, and really should be ahead. That last counterattack was so pretty except for the Trezeguet miss.
   185. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: November 30, 2020 at 07:53 PM (#5991726)
Never mind all that, Spurs are away to 8th Tier Marine (Northern Premier League Division One) in the FA Cup 3rd Round!

THE MAGIC OF THE CUP!
   186. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2020 at 10:08 PM (#5991761)
By understat, EPL xPoints currently are 136.0-135.5 home v away. I think the other top 3 leagues in aggregate still show a slight home advantage in xPoints, even though they have a 50/50 win/loss combined record.
   187. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 30, 2020 at 11:38 PM (#5991776)
So who's the 6th-best team in the EPL?

Newcastle is only 3 points out of 5th.
   188. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 12:37 PM (#5991837)
Newcastle United is having a covid outbreak. Friday's game against Villa is postponed.

At least these two teams aren't in europe, so finding a makeup slot shouldn't be too hard. Villa already has to make up their City game though.
   189. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 01, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5991862)
Whoa. The cat is officially among the pigeons now in Group B. Shakhtar take a 1-0 lead on Real in the 57th and if that stands up they would just need to match Real's result in MD6 to advance.
   190. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5991864)
Shakhtar did a whole lot of nothing in the first half, and were lucky not to be behind. In the second half it's all Shakhtar so far, and they nabbed one for the 1-0 lead. Real Madrid needs a goal or they are in serious trouble. A draw very likely will be enough for then today though, at least in terms of advancing. A draw makes it much harder for Madrid to win the group.
   191. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5991867)
After allowing Shakhtar nothing in the first half, Real Madrid suddenly looks like a sieve in the back. Could very easily have given up a second by now.

I'd be surprised if this game ends up 1-0.
   192. spivey Posted: December 01, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5991871)
That group is ridiculous. Inter still can reasonably get out of the group by winning out. This result isn't great for BMG as they now have to win today or draw next week. It looked like it was probably the most balanced group, and it's lived up to that. Real and Inter deserve some credit for underperforming as well, to make it extra spicy.
   193. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 01, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5991873)
There it is! Wow.
   194. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5991875)
Holy shitters. Nice counter and great finish. After that first half, I was not expecting anything like this.
   195. spivey Posted: December 01, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5991878)
Varane is overrated. I said it. I'm not sure what he was doing on the first goal, but it seemed like he almost tried to get out of the way of it.
   196. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5991882)
This result isn't great for BMG as they now have to win today or draw next week.
It makes it slightly harder for them to get out of the group, but much more likely to win the group, so probably (and according to 538) more likely to make the quarter finals.
   197. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:29 PM (#5991889)
If the games end like this, Liverpool would win the group and Ajax would just need a draw over Atalanta to advance.

edit: and with Gladbach now looking likely to lose, Gladbach will probably need a result against Real Madrid to advance. A draw in that game puts both Real Madrid and Gladbach through, so maybe we shouldn't expect fireworks. Real Madrid might want to win the group though.
edit2: 2-3 now, so let's not get ahead of ourselves!
   198. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5991891)
Atalanta have equalized. So now Ajax will need a win.
   199. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5991892)
A draw in that game puts both Real Madrid and Gladbach through


Real would need Inter to beat Shakhtar for that to be true. First tiebreaker is head to head which Shakhtar have.

Gladbach equalize!!!!
   200. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5991893)
Not so fast. We now have the ref going over to the monitor. I think this is getting overturned, it looked to me like the player was offside. Yup, there it is. Right call.
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