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Tuesday, November 03, 2020

OT - Soccer Thread - Winter Is Here

Not sure why the other thread no longer allows comments but…new thread!

Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 03, 2020 at 11:16 AM | 698 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   201. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5991894)
Both managers booked in the aftermath. Gladbach coach for dissent on the goal being disallowed but Conte for Inter, I don't know what happened there.
   202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5991895)
oops you are right about Real Madrid.

I think that's the right call to overrule the goal. What's the keeper supposed to do... the offensive player could tap it in from there and the keeper can't assume he is offside, so the keeper has to hold his position. Or at least, all of that has to go through his mind.
   203. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5991896)
The City xG is about 0-2.5 right now. Luckily it doesn't matter.
   204. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5991897)
Bayern with the late equalizer, probably setting up a tasty Salzburg/Atletico match to advance.
   205. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:48 PM (#5991899)
Yeah, there is no doubt that's the right call (assuming the player is offside which I think he was).
   206. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5991901)
Marseille keeps their Europa League hopes alive with a win, but they still need help. Midtjylland got the draw too, so no teams left with 0 points.

With those results, we have lots of huge games left next week on Wednesday. Ajax/Atalanta is in the early slot.
   207. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5991914)
Those City and Liverpool games are absolutely meaningless for them, and except for Marseille still being able to reach Europa, are absolutely meaningless completely. Should be fully rotated teams, giving Klopp the break that he has been asking for. Liverpool has Wolves this weekend, but then a weak league schedule featuring 4 of the worst teams in the league + Spurs and Southampton, through the holidays. That has to be the easiest schedule over the next month of any contender in the EPL.

City's schedule is much harder, with Manchester United, Chelse, Everton, and Southampton, along with the extra game against Arsenal in the league cup. Tottenham's schedule is just as hard, so they might want to wrap up Europa this week as well. Chelsea has no league pushovers at all through the holidays, but doesn't have a league cup game, at least.

Hardest of all is probably Manchester United, with only Sheffield United as a break in their difficult league schedule. Even their league cup game is against Everton. They would do themselves a huge favor by not losing to PSG tomorrow, though a win would make them group leaders and make the Leipzig game almost completely irrelevant. (For United at least--Leipzig would still be playing to advance out of the group.)

edit: after Liverpool, Leicester has the next easiest go of it, with an easy-ish league schedule, having essentially wrapped up their Europa spot, and having no league cup game.
   208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2020 at 06:11 PM (#5991922)
Atalanta had 1 point after 4 games last year, and advanced. Salzburg would repeat the feat with a win against Atleti.
   209. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:21 AM (#5991984)
Chelsea and PSG are both slightly favored on the road today. that seems to be consistent with only a small home field advantage, even for the European games where travel becomes much more relevant.
   210. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5991993)
So we already have some pretty good matchups for the final matchday next week.

Group A - Bayern are through, Atletico need to draw Salzburg to advance in 2nd. Salzburg win they advance.

Group B - If Real and Inter beat Gladbach and Shakhtar respectively they are thru.
If both matches are draws Gladbach and Shakhtar are thru.
Gladbach draw and Inter win and Gladbach and Real are thru.
Gladbach win and Inter win; Gladbach and Inter are thru.
Real win and Shakhtar win; Real and Shakhtar are thru.
Real win and Shakhtar draw; Gladbach and Real are thru.
I think that's all right.

Group C - City win the group, Porto second. Move along.

Group D - Liverpool win the group. Atalanta need a draw or win against Ajax to advance. Ajax win they advance.
   211. spivey 2 Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:18 AM (#5991997)
Most of the groups playing today are decided except for finishing first or 2nd, but the Man U/PSG/Leipzig group is going to come down to the final day.

With PSG, Atletico, and Real all needing results the final day - it feels like more top teams in danger of bouncing out than is typical. There does seem to be a lot more parity this year than normal.
   212. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:30 AM (#5991999)
Brugge/Lazio could still come down to the final day.

also, if PSG wins today they would almost certainly advance, I think at worst needing only a draw at home against Başakşehir.
   213. spivey 2 Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:43 AM (#5992004)
I agree they are very likely, but would still need a result, and PSG haven't been as convincing this year as normal (3 losses in the league already on top of the CL struggles), and have a history of having some epic meltdowns in the CL when the chips are on the table. Of course, that all assumes a win today.
   214. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:57 AM (#5992009)
PSG wouldn't necessarily need a result on the last weekend if they win today, especially if they get the head-to-head over United (which would take a win by 2, or scoring 3 goals). Also, if PSG can lose to Başakşehir then Leipzig can certainly drop points today, so PSG could even clinch a spot today.
   215. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 02, 2020 at 10:10 AM (#5992013)
With PSG, Atletico, and Real all needing results the final day - it feels like more top teams in danger of bouncing out than is typical. There does seem to be a lot more parity this year than normal.


They made the point in one of the games that I watched yesterday that the teams that played the knockout stages normally have a bit of a break in May/June/July before ramping up for the league and European competitions. This year the teams that played the knockout stages had no break between the high intensity quarter/semi/finals and the start of the new seasons so it's possible there is a fatigue issue.
   216. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5992021)
If it does end up being 3 top teams needing a result, that would be more than normal. Last year Liverpool and Atleti needed results. The year before it was Liverpool and PSG. In the two or three years before that I think it was even fewer teams.

On the other hand, we're still not really closer to real competition in the group stage. Some of the very top teams are struggling more than normal, but it's mostly to teams comfortably in the top 25 in the world, themselves hardly slouches.
   217. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5992068)
With Leipzig up 0-2 at the half, and assuming they go on to win, PSG can't clinch a spot today.

Worth remembering that if United had managed to beat Başakşehir in Istanbul, they would have effectively clinched a spot in the KOs prior to the games today.

edit: whoops. A great goal by Başakşehir right before the halftime whistle. 1-2 now.

Except for one other big chance by Demba Ba which resulted in a great save, Başakşehir has been totally outclassed. Leipzig should still win easily, but now you never know.
   218. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5992072)
Upimecano picked up a cheap yellow on a poor call. Will miss the United game.
   219. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5992079)
Kahveci with 3 perfect shots today, and it's 3-3 with 5 minutes plus injury time left.
   220. spivey 2 Posted: December 02, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5992080)
That free kick was absolutely filthy. Other goals were good too, but the free kick is as good as it gets.
   221. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5992088)
Crazy Leipzig game. The Leipzig win I think puts a lot more pressure on PSG. Nothing much changes for United, I don't think--they still need a draw in one of their final two games to advance. It does become slightly harder for United to win the group, as now they need a win against PSG or two draws, whereas if Başakşehir had held on today, United would have only (effectively) needed a draw today to win the group.

In the United game, Fred with a really stupid red? Turns out no. I think there is an argument that the other player made the initial contact with his head, and Fred petulantly responded. If so, I don't know if that is supposed to be a red or not.

edit: the other player leaned in with his head first, and may have caused initial contact (or perhaps not), but Fred very clearly responded much more aggressively. Could easily have been a red.
   222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5992096)
They should have taken Fred off at half time. What did he do for the second yellow?
   223. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 02, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5992101)
Yea, for sure. He was a little loose with the ball at his feet in the middle of the field. He and Herrera went for the ball and his followthrough went through Herrera. He probably got the ball first but it was a deserving sending off.

PSG look unimpressive again.
   224. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5992102)
And with that last goal, PSG almost certainly wins the group. After 5 games, it's back to what was expected coming in: PSG winning the group with United/Leipzig fighting for the second spot. United just needs the draw, so will be 65%+ chance to advance. PSG will be about 99% chance to advance, and over 90% to finish first.
   225. spivey 2 Posted: December 02, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5992104)
Yeah, it seems like PSG were on the ropes before their 2nd goal.

Fred definitely got the ball first, but I think that gets so over-emphasized by announcers and pundits. He got the ball first, but he was out of control when he touched the ball, it's not like it was staying under his possession, and then he wiped out the player. It was still reckless.
   226. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 05:00 PM (#5992106)
Maybe only 60% for United--I forgot they were on the road.

Dortmund held off Lazio, so they have clinched a spot, but not first place. Lazio hosts Brugge for the other spot in the group. Barcelona will win their group barring a miracle by Juve.

That means so far no surprise group winners, and as of yet no upsets for second place either. Finishing first in the group this year will be a huge advantage in the round of 16, with Bayern, City, Liverpool, Barca, Chelsea, and likely PSG and Dortmund all winning their groups. How many of those would Real Madrid be favored against in the round of 16?

Next week we have 4 head-to-heads for second place in the group, along with Real Madrid v Gladbach. Should be interesting.
   227. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:12 PM (#5992170)
Group E - Chelsea and Sevilla are thru, Chelsea win the group with a draw at least

Group F - Dortmund are thru. Lazio advance with a win over Bruges on MD6. Dortmund win the group if that happens no matter what. If Lazio draw and Dortmund lose Lazio win the group.

Group G - Barca and Juve are through. Barca win the group with a win or draw or a loss by one goal or by 2-0. A three goal loss or more or a two goal loss where they allow at least three goals Juve win the group.

Group H - Deep breath.

PSG are through with a win.
Winner between United/Leipzig is through and if that game has a winner PSG are through even if they lose or draw.
Draws in both ManU and PSG are through.

Hmmm...that wasn’t as nuts as I thought it would be.
   228. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5992174)
Chelsea has already clinched first in the group. Lazio only needs a draw to advance. The only way PSG does not advance is if they lose and the other group game ends in a draw. Odds of that are less than 1 in 100.
   229. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 02, 2020 at 11:32 PM (#5992198)
Group F - Dortmund are thru. Lazio advance with a win over Bruges on MD6. Dortmund win the group if that happens no matter what. If Lazio draw and Dortmund lose Lazio win the group.

That doesn't make any sense. I think you mean Bruges advance with a win over Lazio.
   230. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 03, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5992215)
That doesn't make any sense. I think you mean Bruges advance with a win over Lazio.


Yeah, I left that out. Not sure why (well I am sure, because I'm dumb, but I'll be blaming jmurph).
   231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 08:22 AM (#5992217)



                  current  after R4 after R3  after R2  after R1  original  delta (v original)
Group A                                        
Bayern               100      100       99       97       95         89        +11         
Atlético              67       81       82       86       75         72         -5 (lowest odds since group started)
Salzburg              33       16       17       12       23         30         +3 (highest)   
Lokomotiv Moskva       0        3        2        5        7          9         -9

Group B
Real Madrid           77       94       75       58       60         82         -5
Mönchengladbach       57       82       61       44       40         35        +22
Internazionale        50       16       43       56       58         64        -14
Shakhtar Donetsk      16        9       21       42       42         19         -3    

Group C
Manchester City      100      100       99       98       96         93         +7
Porto                100       99       85       63       45         51        +49
Olympiacos             0        1       13       23       36         20        -20
Marseille              0        0        3       16       23         36        -36 

Group D
Liverpool            100       95       99       95       93         89        +11
Atalanta              58       61       55       71       76         59         -1 (same odds as group start!)
Ajax                  42       44       47       32       27         45         -3 (same)
Midtjylland            0        0        1        2        4          7         -7

Group E
Chelsea              100      100       98       88       78         75        +25 
Sevilla              100      100       97       85       76         69        +31 
Rennes                 0        0        3       17       29         38        -38
Krasnodar              0        0        2       10       19         18        -18 

Group F
Dortmund             100       99       93       83       69         79        +21 
Lazio                 78       90       81       78       79         62        +16
Club Brugge           22       11       18       28       30         15         +7
Zenit                  0        0        8       11       22         44        -44

Group G
Barcelona            100      100       99       98       94         89        +11 
Juventus             100      100       97       94       94         89        +11
Dynamo Kyiv            0        0        3        5       9          15        -15
Ferencváros            0        0        1        3       3           7         -7

Group H
PSG                   99       69       65         78       68       81        +18
Manchester United     64       85       80         88       78       66         -2 (same odds as start)
Leipzig               37       45       49         32       49       43         -6 (almost same)
Basaksehir             0        1        6          2        5       10        -10
   232. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 08:29 AM (#5992218)
group winner odds:

Group B
Real Madrid           55
Mönchengladbach       36
Shakhtar Donetsk       9

Group F
Dortmund              74
Lazio                 26

Group G
Barcelona             95
Juventus               5

Group H
PSG                   85
ManUnited              9
Leipzig                6
   233. jmurph Posted: December 03, 2020 at 08:59 AM (#5992222)
Yeah, I left that out. Not sure why (well I am sure, because I'm dumb, but I'll be blaming jmurph).

Yeah that's my fault, sorry everyone.
   234. KronicFatigue Posted: December 03, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5992242)
I've very much appreciated the posts on odds. Thank you. I've watched way more CL this year thanks to CBS All Access actually showing all the matches, but the odds match up with my long held opinion that the group stage is overrated a bit.

1) Most groups go as expected.
2) Most "big losses" by an elite club are eventually made irrelevant at the end of the group stage.
3) One team that should have made knockout won't.
4) There will be one or two groups that remain interesting by match day 6.

There's been some good soccer, and I enjoy seeing clubs outside of my comfort zone of EPL, but overall there's been a lot of time spent just to see if it's going to be Atalanta or Ajax.

   235. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5992260)
Early jitters by Spurs against LASK, and they almost go behind, but are saved by first a good block and second by the base of the post. LASK is no pushover these days--Salzburg looks to have raised the level of play in the Austrian Bundesliga as a whole. ELO has them as about as good as a premier league relegation bubble team, and 538 about a standard relegation level EPL team. In other words, they're miles better than West Brom (and last year's Newcastle).

Still, Spurs will probably win fairly easily. If they somehow manage to lose though, they'd probably have to beat Antwerp in the final group game to advance; even a draw likely would not be enough.
   236. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5992263)
Shocker in Milan. Celtic are up 0-2 early. It's too late for Celtic, but a loss today would put Milan in serious doubt for advancing.

edit: Already 2-2. Oh well.
   237. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 02:52 PM (#5992287)
Poor game by Spurs, but saved by two penalty calls. Looked to be correct, but there's a good chance without the foul neither would have resulted in a goal.

though they qualified, now they need a win at Antwerp to win the group. Winning the group in Europa is not nearly as valuable as winning in the in the CL, so I wouldn't be surprised if they field a fairly weak team. Leicester lost against minnows Zorya, so they still have work to do to win the group too.

Villarreal and Hoffenheim won their groups. Lille will win its group over Milan unless Milan has the better result on matchday 6.

The good CL teams dropping into Europa all will be in pot 1, so that adds some incentive to finish Europa groups first.
   238. spivey 2 Posted: December 03, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5992294)
Tottenham won xG 2.5-1.0 today, though all of the gap is the two PKs.

Still, very poor. Only 0.4 non-shot xG, which kind of tells the story of what the offense looked like. The team was rotated, but not *that* rotated. Sanchez and Doherty have both been shocking this year, and Sanchez is probably done after his "defending" on the second goal. Joe Hart was absolute rubbish. I feel very confident that Lloris allows none of those shots to go in.

If Tottenham actually want to win a trophy, Hart cannot be the cup keeper after the last group stage match.
   239. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 03, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5992298)
Lacazette ends his goal drought with aplomb.

Arsenal's seating arrangement for fans seems terrible. Two seats in between individual fans and one row. However, no offsetting (they're all directly behind each other) and they've just used a handful of sections.
   240. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5992301)
Joe Hart was absolute rubbish. I feel very confident that Lloris allows none of those shots to go in.
He was terrible on all the goals. Not sure Lloris saves them all, but probably at least 2 of the 3. Hart did have a nice save early on, at least. Still, yeah. Might as well give experience to a young guy on low wages, who has a shot at being there for the future, if your veteran backup can't come in and look competent.
   241. spivey 2 Posted: December 03, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5992304)
Like that last goal LASK scored... That was hit so soft, from like 25 yards. I legitimately would expect a college keeper or Hope Solo to save that. So late to react. I would expect Lloris to catch it standing up.
   242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5992305)
If Arsenal hold on to win today, they will be the only team in Europa with a perfect record through 5 games. Only one in the CL is Barca.

Nobody in the CL has 0 points, though 4 have just a single point, unsurprisingly the worst of these being Ferencvaros at -11 GD. In Europa there are still 4 teams with 0 points, so Dundalk has some good competition this year. The most surprising is Belgium's Gent, with 0 points and -8 GD.

Don't look now, but 0 point Rijeka is beating Real Sociedad 0-1. (edit: and lest you think the game does not matter, a loss by Real Sociedad would leave their advancement in the group quite precarious.)

Worst GD in Europa? That's easy: Celtic, who have been ghastly with just the 1 point and -10 GD.
   243. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5992310)
Napoli was all over Alkmaar early, but things have really changed. It's been all Alkmaar for the last 30 or more game minutes, and they really should be ahead.
   244. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5992320)
Alkmaar couldn't get the win, but a draw combined with a surprise draw by Sociedad means they advance with a win against minnows Rijeka. If that happens, one of Sociedad or Napoli will go out.

No real surprises in the other groups, with all the favorites so far advancing.

   245. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5992347)
With La Liga struggling a bit in Europe, and the Bundesliga generally doing well, the Bundesliga now has an average ELO higher than La Liga. Only 18 teams though, so it's a tad lower from 1-20. That matches well with points in Europe for ranking purposes: the Bundesliga has earned just slightly fewer than La Liga over the last 1.5 years.
   246. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 05, 2020 at 10:35 AM (#5992561)
They need to establish a mercy rule for matches like City-Fulham.
   247. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5992562)
Sevilla rested 8 starters against Chelsea, preferring to concede the group and save their players for the Real Madrid game happening now.

Of course, Chelsea beat them badly, and today they have been second best but it's still 0-0. oops. 10-1 now Real Madrid.
   248. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 11:47 AM (#5992563)
I meant 0-1, not 10-1.
   249. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5992564)
For me, Pep's City has always been better than Klopp's Liverpool, except for maybe stretches of a few games here and there. I would call them clear favorites to win the league right now. It's not just me either--there hasn't been any moment yet, since City came to prominence a few years ago, where betting odds haven't favored City in situations where the two teams are on a level playing field. For example, right now City is favored over Liverpool to win the CL, and they have been since the start of the season.
   250. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5992568)
(Some) fans are back in the EPL. We'll see if this affects home field afvantage, but it seems likely.
   251. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5992573)
Bruno is not playing and United looks terrible. Deservedly down 1-0 now, and it could be more. Pogba looks bad--taking stupid risks on the dribble, and to blame on the goal as well.
   252. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5992575)
Pogba goes for the bicycle kick clearance in his own penalty box. A little lucky that the attacker couldn't get close enough to result in a high-boot penalty kick, and the result of the bicycle was a line drive into the ground that was immediately recycled by West Ham for another chance.

What the everloving ####.

edit: it's not all Pogba. The team looks terrible from top to bottom. Henderson in goal for DDG got beat twice easily, once one terrible positioning which resulted in an easy goal called back for offside. The other the offensive player inexplicably fell down.
   253. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:19 PM (#5992577)
Bayern/Leipzig is a good one. 2-2 at the half with some nice goals, including one by Musiala who came in when one of the Bayern players got injured early.
   254. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:19 PM (#5992578)
Huge game in Bundesliga today between Leipzig and Bayern. ESPN+ was down this morning, so I was worried I wouldn't be able to watch it, but this Bayern/Leipzig match is delivering as it's 2-2 here at the end of the first half. Bayern has the best offense in the world, so they look dangerous when on attack. But their defense is a sieve, so Leipzig also look very dangerous against Bayern's high line. The ref is also allowing a very physical game, which is great to see because these are two very physical teams that don't like each other.

Bayern is 5th in xPoints and 3rd in xGD. They were outplayed by Dortmund, and have relied on excellent finishing in both the league and the CL group to not be in a tougher fight there as well.

Dortmund dropped points again today though. A great near post strike by Reyna. And Adams has looked very good in this game. The future of American soccer is here!
   255. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5992579)
COVID may not make this possible, but United really should sell Pogba. I actually thought he was the worst midfielder on those top Juve sides. Vidal was maybe the best box-to-box midfielder in the world during that time, and Marchisio was up there too. Pogba had absolutely zero defensive responsibilities. Same for France with Kante and Matuidi. If Juve sell Ronaldo or otherwise clear up money to bring back Pogba, I think United should just take it.

His talent is evident, but he doesn't play nasty enough and is too reckless on the ball given he's not a great ball retention guy to be an 8. I'd probably give Van de Beek some extended run to see if he can play in that spot when Bruno is resting or when they play bad teams and don't want to have 2 DMs on the field.
   256. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:32 PM (#5992580)
Infogol halftime xG: WHU: 2.06 - 0.08 MU.
   257. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5992581)
For me, Pep's City has always been better than Klopp's Liverpool, except for maybe stretches of a few games here and there. I would call them clear favorites to win the league right now. It's not just me either--there hasn't been any moment yet, since City came to prominence a few years ago, where betting odds haven't favored City in situations where the two teams are on a level playing field. For example, right now City is favored over Liverpool to win the CL, and they have been since the start of the season.


I generally agree with this. There was a point early this year where City had a negative GD/xGD after like 4 games, where I definitely would have taken Liverpool. But they've gotten their attackers healthy, Dias looks good, Laporte is back, and equally as important - Pep has now set up their team to be very defensive/pragmatic. With their current setup, it's quite difficult to hit them on the counter. That may change when Kyle Walker loses his legs since they rely on him so much, but he's still fast as hell.
   258. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5992582)
OGS brought on Bruno and Rashford at the half, for Cavani and Van De Beek.
   259. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5992583)
Jesus Christ Bayern's defense is bad. There is no way they can win the CL if they don't get this #### cleared up.
   260. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5992586)
Holy crap! Pogbomb!
   261. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5992588)
Beautiful goal by Manchester United, off an absolutely superb clearance down the line to set up the attack by the keeper Henderson. Fantastic finish by Pogba. Manchester United do note deserve to be in the game but it's level.
   262. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 05, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5992591)
De Bruyne is better but is there any midfielder that is better for their team than Fernandes? If City sits De Bruyne, they'd be fine, but United look like relegation battlers without him.
   263. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5992595)
Mata came in for an ailing Martial, and it's been all Manchester United since. 1-3 now. Still super lucky to win this game, but after about the 55th minute it's been one way traffic the other way.

edit: yeah Fernandes and Rashford made almost all the difference from the first the half, and Mata in the midfield added some creativity as well.
   264. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5992599)
Tyler Adams has been quite a bit worse this second half - had a couple weak passes in dangerous areas, and the 3rd goal was probably his mark - he may still lose the arial battle against Muller, but he didn't even challenge him. And in the the last 20-30 minutes Bayern has been outplaying Leipzig comfortably. Sorloth looks slow and definitely off the quality of a champions league team. That is a weird piece of business for Leipzig - 20 million for a striker who had only scored in the Turkish league but failed elsewhere. They normally are very on point.

The CBs for Leipzig have been absolute monsters today. And Angelino looks like he could walk into Man City's starting 11.
   265. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5992600)
Kind of an indictment of OGS that Manchester United look so bad without Bruno. Surely they have enough good players to at least be competitive against West Ham without him.

understat xG through 51 minutes (including the big miss by West Ham at the back post at the start of the second half): 2.41-0.08. That doesn't include the offside goal by WHU that was misplayed by Henderson, and also not the wide-open chance where the WHU player slipped and never got a shot off.
understat xG through the rest of the game: 0.10-1.71.

West Ham aren't better than Manchester United and it's silly to pretend they are. But without Rashford and Bruno there's a pretty good case that this United team would be at their level or worse.
   266. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 03:58 PM (#5992606)
That Werner miss is something special. Excited to see the different system's xG projections on that.
   267. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5992618)
538 is very likely to have Chelsea rated above Liverpool after this game.

edit: the xG in this game is already very one-sided.
   268. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 04:27 PM (#5992620)
I think West Ham had roughly equal or even slightly better non-pen xGD going into today's match than Man U. The double pivot folks were talking a bit about it at the last podcast, and I think they put them around equal in terms of making a top 4 title challenge. I think they're definitely off base there - I think still only 10 matches in, we need to regress fairly heavily back to what last season showed.

I'm not exactly sure how to rank Leicester, West Ham, Villa, and Leeds. I think realistically each of them could put in a surprise top 4 run. I don't think Southampton or Brighton should be expected to. But Man U has a good defense and enough match winners to where I think they're a cut above. They have a pretty thin squad though, as mentioned above.
   269. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5992623)
I think West Ham had roughly equal or even slightly better non-pen xGD going into today's match than Man U. The double pivot folks were talking a bit about it at the last podcast, and I think they put them around equal in terms of making a top 4 title challenge. I think they're definitely off base there - I think still only 10 matches in, we need to regress fairly heavily back to what last season showed
They did the same thing last year, and the year before. 10 games does not give you anywhere near enough of a sample for true talent. It's a poor use of data.

Even systems that overrate recent games, especially for example 538, still has Manchester United as well above West Ham. Betting odds for top 4 are not close either. Conventional wisdom may overrate Manchester United and underrate West Ham (though I'm not sure about the latter--West Ham has been given fairly decent odds going into each year especially considering their recent performances over the last several years), but determining relative quality now, and especially ability to contend for top 4, without heavily regressing the results of 10 games, is simply a mistake.
   270. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5992635)
This was an utterly dominant performance by Chelsea against a decent enough opponent. Chelsea looks the real deal, and if the top two falter they could win the EPL. I don't really think anyone else can.

Leeds is probably at least a year away from contending for Europe, though they could hang around until the last few weeks.
   271. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5992636)
Also, Barca lost again, this time to Cadiz.

edit: 538 xG was 2.0-2.0. non-shot xG was 0.2-4.3. Holy crap.
   272. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2020 at 05:08 PM (#5992644)
Current top 4 betting odds: Manchester United: 40+%; West Ham United: 4%.
   273. Mefisto Posted: December 05, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5992678)
I think all of Chelsea's xG came from Werner. :)

Having fans in the stands looks to me to be a disaster. Notwithstanding the reassurances of the announcers about the requirements for those attending, it was obvious when the cameras panned the crowd that compliance with mask and distancing rules was inadequate at best.
   274. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 08:46 PM (#5992685)
I agree with the fans.

We didn't talk about it here, but the Chilwell tackle/kick on Poveda towards the end of the Chelsea/Leeds game is the kind of situation that VAR isn't handling well right now. Chilwell clearly kicked Poveda in the bottom of the foot. If that's Bruno Fernandes, he's going down 10 times out of 10 there. And truthfully, many attackers go down there. Because Poveda played through it, it must have been deemed not significant enough contact. But I think it's absolutely overturned if he dives to the ground, even if they didn't call it that way on the field.

I mean, this is a situation that was difficult before VAR - as players feel, rightfully, that they need to embellish contact or the refs won't call what are actual fouls. But it seems like VAR should be able, or at least trying, to fix that.
   275. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2020 at 08:48 PM (#5992686)
I think Chelsea is better than Liverpool. I think it's Chelsea and City, and something weird would need to happen for Liverpool or Tottenham (or other) to win.

Chelsea I'm not sure can really fade a longer-term injury to Mendy, Silva, or Kante, though. Their box-to-box mids and attackers are insanely deep, though.
   276. Mefisto Posted: December 05, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5992691)
Chelsea also need Lampard to fall out of love with Mount.
   277. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 08:01 AM (#5992713)
West Brom were playing Crystal Palace fairly well, but then went a man down. Fortunately for West Brom, Palace is also pretty bad, and not exactly known for offensive output. I give West Brom a good chance to hang on for the draw. Betting odds say 45%
   278. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 08:22 AM (#5992714)
So much for that. Maybe, after all, West Brom is just very, very bad.
   279. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 08:34 AM (#5992715)
Newcastle started out 2019-2020 on the short end of xG for 10 straight games, and had the worst xGD in the league. This will be West Brom's 11th, and their xGD was already worse than Newcastle's was after 10 games last year. Newcastle also had a stretch midseason where they were on the short end 15 straight times. West Brom's next game is against Newcastle, naturally. If they can't outplay Newcastle in that one, they have a hard schedule for several weeks. Could be rough.
   280. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 06, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5992727)
Wow, that was rough for Sheffield United. I understand not doing it in the moment but Egan should have just taken the red card and hauled him down there.
   281. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5992733)
Yeah it was a terrible way to lose. Then again, 1) they were outplayed all game, really, so a loss is not a harsh result, and 2) they mot likely need more than 1 point now in games anyway--draws aren't going to be very useful soon.
   282. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 06, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5992738)
That was something special from Son. Not sure how he got so much space with central defenders. Unfortunately that will probably lead Jose to sit back and play conservatively.
   283. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 06, 2020 at 12:04 PM (#5992739)
They said it after the game, getting the point there would have been a nice emotional lift. I agree with you, Leicester deserved the win but it’s hard not to feel for Sheffield United. I think they were the team that really were most hurt by the stoppage last season.
   284. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2020 at 12:26 PM (#5992743)
Spurs up 2-0 at half while not having much of the ball, with goals from Son and Kane. Classic.
   285. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5992750)
Arsenal is not nearly the team that Chelsea is this year, let alone City, but this was a very good game by Spurs. Sure they didn't create much going forward, but, unlike against Chelsea, they didn't need to because they were in the lead the whole game, and also, again unlike against Chelsea or City, Arsenal never really had any good looks on goal, and had few shots overall, so it was a comfortable win.

Spurs had low xG overall, but the counter at the end of the half in truth was a huge chance, and finished from close range--that one seems underrated by xG. That was a good counter by Spurs, but at the same time there is really no way it should have been so easy to have a 4 on 2 there--it was also terrible, terrible defense.

Did Arsenal play well today? No, possession is not the same as playing well, especially when you spend 85 minutes of the game trailing. They needed to get quality shots from in the box, and ended up with few. Giving up the great goal to Son isn't such a black mark, but the second goal was the result of terrible play.
   286. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5992753)
Please, please don't encourage players to head for the corner flag with a 2 goal lead. Not even in the world cup final. Not ever.
   287. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5992754)
I thought Spurs looked really good. This was a Jose game. As Bea says just because Arsenal had possession it never felt like they were in control.

Top of the Table Spurs.
   288. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5992760)
538 counted it as a negative game for Spurs, probably because Spurs were at home and non-shot xG was 0.2-2.2. I think both are off the mark for this game. IMHO, Spurs deserve some censure for not playing more positively last week on the "road" (in an all-London game without fans), but none today at home when they had the lead (especially with HFA surely still being lower now than in a normal year). The 2.2 non-shot xG for this particular game seems very high as well. City only had 2.5 non-shot xG against Spurs, but had tons more dangerous close possession. Chelsea only had 1.1 non-shot xG and had nine attempts from within the box, with Arsenal having only 6. Maybe non-shot xG liked all of Arsenal's crosses?
   289. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5992764)
Yeah, I can just about see the shot xG on that one, but not buying 538's non-shot xG.
   290. spivey 2 Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5992766)
At some point Son will stop scoring on his first shot of the game and I’m not seeing a lot to suggest Spurs have a good backup plan. I’m fine parking the bus vs City and Chelsea. This is a match they should be trying to put Arsenal to the sword, IMO.
   291. spivey 2 Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5992768)
Let it be known I didn’t watch the match, so maybe this is a match where an early goal or two can affect the xG game state.
   292. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5992770)
I'm not sure if it's the correct strategy (given the hectic schedule, it may be), but Mourinho seems all-in on the conserving energy plan when he thinks the game is won.
   293. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2020 at 03:05 PM (#5992788)
Mane pulled out of an overhead kick clearance in the box, seeing how dangerous it was about to be. Called a penalty in the box but correctly reversed on VAR.

Pogba yesterday had his eye for the ball only, leapt and committed himself to the bicycle kick. Just luck that no West Ham player got near enough to him to force the penalty. The clearance was ineffective anyway, since it ended up on a downward trajectory and was gathered by West Ham immediately and recycled for another shot.
   294. spivey 2 Posted: December 07, 2020 at 09:33 AM (#5992863)
I'm not sure if it's the correct strategy (given the hectic schedule, it may be), but Mourinho seems all-in on the conserving energy plan when he thinks the game is won.


Perhaps. Mourinho is obviously a good manager, and this whole situation is going way better than I expected. I think he has a bit of a history of doing this even in non-COVID times. When he won the Chelsea title on his second stint there, they were blowing the doors off teams in the first 10-15 matches, and then went into a super defensive structure the rest of the year, and I don't know that he's ever really come out of it.
   295. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5992879)
odds:
WINNER
Liverpool            32.5
ManchesterCity       31.5
Chelsea              15
Tottenham            14.5
ManchesterUnited      4.5
Leicester             2

TOP 4
ManchesterCity       90
Liverpool            89
Chelsea              70.5
Tottenham            68
ManchesterUnited     40
Leicester            14
Arsenal               7
Everton               5
Wolves                4
Southampton           3
West Ham              3
Aston Villa           3
Leeds                 2
Brighton              0.5

RELEGATION
West Bromwich        71
SheffieldUnited      70
Fulham               64
Burnley              48
Newcastle            14
Palace               10
Brighton              9
Leeds                 5
West Ham              2.5
Aston Villa           2.5
Southampton           1
Wolves                1
Everton               1
Arsenal               1

   296. spivey 2 Posted: December 07, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5992882)
I think Chelsea is a bit underrated and Arsenal overrated, but otherwise that looks about right.
   297. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5992890)
Arsenal are still projected to have the 6th most points over the remaining fixtures. Leicester is next, followed by Everton, Wolves, then West Ham and Southampton.
   298. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5992904)
I just want to note that Manchester City haven't actually beaten anyone good yet this season. Wolves, maybe? Arsenal? Neither are top 6 teams in my mind. Leicester and Spurs beat them in the most predictable way imaginable. I agree with others that they have solidified things a bit, and they've played really well since the Spurs loss, but still.
   299. spivey 2 Posted: December 07, 2020 at 02:11 PM (#5992910)
jmurph - you outplayed Liverpool and Tottenham, imo.

Olympiakos and Porto are solid to good too, and you dominated those matches. Obviously, Porto wasn't a win, but it was still pretty thorough domination.
   300. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5992912)
jmurph - you outplayed Liverpool and Tottenham, imo.

Yeah the performance against Liverpool was really good, I agree. I guess I agree with you on the Spurs game, but still, the points are in the books.
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