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Tuesday, November 03, 2020

OT - Soccer Thread - Winter Is Here

Not sure why the other thread no longer allows comments but…new thread!

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: November 03, 2020 at 11:16 AM | 981 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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801. The Marksist Posted: February 10, 2021 at 12:30 PM (#6004576)

Florp.

[repeat from post 800]

City are clearly the best team in the PL, and probably the world right now. Don't see anyone in England challenging them absent some serious injuries or bad luck. And think this might be their year in the CL, too. But that's much more of a crap shoot, so who knows!

802. I am going to be Frank Posted: February 10, 2021 at 04:58 PM (#6004612)

Everton-Spurs FA Cup is now 4-4.

803. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: February 10, 2021 at 05:16 PM (#6004618)

This has been a great game. Spurs have been the better team but a couple of mistakes opened the door.

Observation, Son may not be Spurs best player but he’s their most important. Everything goes through him.

804. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2021 at 02:29 PM (#6004745)

Up 2-0 with a free kick as the last kick of the game and JWP over the ball, Southampton plays it to the corner flag. Such a waste. Even the announcers were aghast.

805. spivey 2 Posted: February 11, 2021 at 03:31 PM (#6004753)

Losing to Everton was annoying, but it looks like one of the best Tottenham games for a while. Limited xG scorings of it, but MCoA does the FA Cup, and had it as 3.9-1.5+pen, so basically 3.9-2.2.

I like it when Lamela plays. I mean, Bergwijn just doesn't really get you goals, assists, passing, or ball progression. So I'd rather have Lamela out there, and I think getting consistent ball retention or offense out of that position would go a long way to improving the team.

Or hell, maybe Lamela and Moura, and bench Bergwijn and Sissoko. A man can hope.

806. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2021 at 03:52 PM (#6004755)

Everton vs Manchester City
Bournemouth vs Southampton
Leicester vs Manchester United
Barnsley/Chelsea vs Sheffield United

Manchester United has had the hardest route so far, with Watford, Liverpool, West Ham, and now Leicester.
Sheffield United has had the easiest, with Plymouth Argyle and a couple of Bristols. If Chelsea wins though, Bournemouth will probably have the easiest group of 4 games through the quarters, with Oldham Athletic, Crawley Town, Burnley, and Southampton.

807. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2021 at 03:56 PM (#6004757)

This site does FA cup xG also. They were almost as favorable to Tottenham, at 1.78 to 3.03.

808. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2021 at 02:52 AM (#6004823)

Not that anyone's paying attention, but I forgot about Chelses for the easiest FA route, with Morecambe, Luton Town, Barnsley, and now Sheffield United.

809. Baldrick Posted: February 12, 2021 at 01:29 PM (#6004872)

The Manchester derby on the women's side kicks off in half an hour on NBCSN. Huge game. A win for either team keeps them very much in the title race. A loss for either team makes it far more plausible that Arsenal can chase them down for the final Champions League spot. A draw doesn't do either much good.

Christen Press starting for United while Abby Dahlkemper is starting for City, for those who like an American angle on things.

810. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2021 at 09:14 AM (#6004963)

Liverpool was dominating and in control, but the wheels came way, way off.

811. Baldrick Posted: February 13, 2021 at 09:18 AM (#6004965)

Sometimes feels like this Liverpool season is performance art.

812. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2021 at 09:56 AM (#6004968)

xG (by understat):

last week v City:
First 68 minutes: Liverpool 1.18 - 1.62 City (1 pen each side)
Rest of game: Liverpool 0.00 - 1.93 City.

today v Leicester
First 68 minutes: Liverpool 1.68 - 0.56 Leicester
Rest of game: Liverpool 0.00 - 1.51 Leicester.

In the last quarter of the last two games, aggregated, they've been out xGed 3.44 - 0.00. Outscored 6-0 as well, of course.

813. spivey 2 Posted: February 13, 2021 at 11:40 AM (#6004972)

Dortmund drops points again, this time they look to have been outplayed. ESPN+ had the xG at 2.8-1.5 for Hoffenheim. BTW, that's really nice they flash that with the score at the end of the game.

Dortmund would be so ###### without Haaland. They've been putting up some decent performances recently despite underperforming xG, but when you watch the game their midfield and defense just look pretty lackluster. They're rarely able to control the game, and always look vulnerable defensively.

814. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#6004973)

Dortmund's probably not much better than 50/50 to make the CL next year, by betting odds. Under 50/50 now by 538. They did catch a break with Leverkusen not dropping a 2-0 lead very late.

edit: that Wolfsburg/Gladbach game tomorrow is now quite a big one, with the CL spots suddenly more open than ever.

815. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6004975)

Burney's high quality win over Palace today means Palace and Newcastle are likely now projected to finish 4th and 5th worst in the league. If so, that's quite fitting. They are only hanging on because other teams, not necessarily lower quality, have performed worse just like Last year (Watford and Bournemouth).

816. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2021 at 12:28 PM (#6004977)

A draw or win by Everton tomorrow, and the Merseyside Derby next week will be for position in the table. That's crazy this late in the year.

817. frannyzoo Posted: February 13, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6004985)

My Saturday mornings have usually been long bike rides, but with the weather I watched Napoli/Juve. Don't know what Saturday morning football has been like lately, but that was a pretty darn good match.

818. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2021 at 05:11 PM (#6005004)

Vila continues their recent struggles against teams in (or that should be in) the top half, after getting totally worked up and down the field by Brighton but holding on to a 0-0 draw. The one blip was the good showing against Arsenal last week.

Brighton continues to shine except in front of goal. Today's xG was 2.43 - 0.14 (infogol), 2.33-0.14 (understat), or 2.3 - 0.2 (538). Just an utter beatdown. FWIW, 538 has Brighton currently ranked 8th in the EPL, a sliver behind Spurs, and ahead of West Ham, Villa, and Everton.

Villa's also no longer a hard luck team in the slightest. Their 36 points is about what you would have expected them to earn to this point. Brighton is way, way off the pace--only Sheffield United and Fulham come anywhere close. (And no, Liverpool's luck has not been that bad.)

Today's Brighton performance was effectively tied for second with a few other games for highest xG in the EPL without a goal. Top was Sheffield United losing to West Brom 1-0, where Sheffield United had over 3 xG. Villa also benefited from this just a couple weeks ago, when Southampton had a huge xG day against them but couldn't score.

Battle for the CL spots is basically down to 5 teams, with a few others holding on to a prayer (Spurs, Toffees, Hammers, Villains, and if you squint, Gunners). Battle for Europa is wide open, with those five jockeying for the last two slots. We could easily see some new faces in europe next year.

819. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2021 at 05:50 PM (#6005009)

With europe coming back this week, it's time again to see if there are nay teams who actually have a better shot to reach the CL next year by winning Europa than through their own league. Of the teams with any shot at wining Europa (3% or more), there is only one: Arsenal is being given around 8% to win Europa and under 4% to finish top 4. Even Tottenham isn't in this category (12% to win Europa, 15% to finish top 4).

Every year there are a few teams like Hoffenheium and Granada that are out of the race in their leagues but have a small chance to win Europa (2% and 1%, respectively), but those probably shouldn't count.

820. I am going to be Frank Posted: February 14, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#6005051)

Thanks for the reminder about Champions and Europa League. Was investigating whether or not to pay for CBS All Access again, but I get all the relevant Spanish-Language channels.

United go down early and get a nice equalizer.

821. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2021 at 10:10 AM (#6005053)

Absolutely terrible half played by Manchester United against woeful West Brom. Out xG-ed even, which West Brom has maybe done once or twice all year, in any half, to any team. Second least xG against West Brom in any half save Brighton's completely anemic performance in the second half of a 1-1 draw.

West Brom got the early goal and was packed in, and United misses Pogba. But none of those are reasons. This is a bad, bad team, and there's no way United should look so poor against them.

822. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2021 at 10:31 AM (#6005055)

Took 70 minutes, but United finally pulled ahead in the xG battle. A little unlucky to score on by far their best chance of the game.

823. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6005057)

West Brom missed out on two great chances. Game still tied but xG not so much. What #### by United.

824. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2021 at 10:56 AM (#6005058)

With that draw, 538 has City as 98+% to win the league. Betting odds probably close to 98% too.

United is falling back into the thick of the top 4 race.

825. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2021 at 12:34 PM (#6005071)

CL betting odds have not changed notably since the draw was announced in december. All odds are even or slightly tighter, except City looks even better than before.

CL betting odds               now     december
                               
PSG           (Barca)         50.5     52
Chelsea       (Atleti)        52       53
Dortmund      (Sevilla)       58       58

Real Madrid   (Atalanta)      66       69
Liverpool     (Leipzig)       71       73
Juventus      (Porto)         79       79

Bayern        (Lazio)         88       89
City          (Gladbach)      90       88

826. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2021 at 01:01 PM (#6005076)

Europa odds. Mostly unchanged, but United is even more overvalued than before. Milan has dropped, probably correctly.

The most interesting change is Rangers, who are now given much better odds. Rangers have looked very good in Scotland, but their competition is crap. Antwerp haven't looked great in Belgium, but they've been ok. Most likely it's the Rangers overall performance this year, which has been as good as they've been since the early 200s, and it took a little while for the odds market to catch up.

Europa league                now       december

PSV           (Olympiacos)    50.5     53
Zagreb        (Krasnodar)     55       56
Villarreal    (Salzburg)      57       58

Brugge        (Kiev)          65       59
Arsenal       (Benfica)       65       66
Ajax          (Lille)         68       67
United        (Sociedad)      71       68

Rangers       (Antwerp)       74       62
Roma          (Braga)         76       77
Napoli        (Granada)       77       75
Leicester     (Prague)        77       77
Shakhtar      (Tel Aviv)      79       76
Leverkusen    (Young Boys)    79       78
Milan         (Red Star)      80       85

Hoffenheim    (Molde)         86       85
Tottenham     (Wolfsberger)   90       88

827. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: February 14, 2021 at 10:51 PM (#6005144)

After the great win against Spurs in the Cup an absolute ahitshow from Everton today. It was set up for one hell of a derby day next weekend with Everton and Liverpool tied but instead we are three points back. Not huge but a different feel.

828. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2021 at 01:39 AM (#6005155)

Over their last 20 games each (all but 5 games combined for the two teams), Fulham and Everton have preformed basically the same by xG. (-5 non-pen xGD each, with 23 xPoints for Everton and 25 for Fulham). 538 has them as almost equal in current rank.

Everton doesn't look very good most of the time anymore, and Fulham has shown signs of life here and there.

538 also has Fulham and Leeds close to equal at this point. Betting odds still likes Everton slightly better than Leeds, and both a fair bit more than Fulham.

829. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6005209)

As any sane person could have predicted, West Ham will be above Liverpool in the table if they hold on.

Insanity.

830. I am going to be Frank Posted: February 16, 2021 at 03:18 PM (#6005369)

Two Americans (Dest and Adams) starting on teams in the knockout stages of Champions League today. Hopefully all these guys can come together to make a good team.

831. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2021 at 04:19 PM (#6005391)

Both these Liverpool/Leipzig games are at neutral sites, at least potentially? There's probably not that much home field advantage anyway right now, but certainly if the games are played in neutral sites you'd expect even less than what we've been seeing, if any at all. That means the "away" team, which is Liverpool today, really should be pushing the action to get the away goals edge.

Liverpool has been pushing the pace in this one, and Leipzig's very poor defensive errors have now gifted them two goals. 0-0 would have been a quite bad result for Liverpool under the circumstances, so these mistakes are making all the difference.

832. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6005394)

As Barcelona goes down big today at home against one of the top few teams in the tournament, it's worth remembering that they totally capitulated to Juve in their last round group game to cede top spot in the group, losing 0-3 at home to Juve in a game where all they needed to do was not lose by 3.

Juve faces Porto, the team least fancied going into the round of 16 draw.

833. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6005401)

For their part, Liverpool looked very good in the first half except for defending the one big chance by Leipzig. Second half they've been gifted 2 goals (and finished them very well), but most of the rest of the chances have actually gone to Leipzig. It hasn't been a great half by Liverpool. They haven't exactly stifled Leipzig, and haven't at all been able to take advantage of Leipzig's urgency to catch them on the break.

edit: 0-2 definitely flatters Liverpool. If the game had ended in a draw Liverpool wouldn't have had much to complain about.

834. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2021 at 05:24 PM (#6005412)

With Liverpool and PSG now up big, there's a clear top 2 and top 4 in the CL now. Teams ranked by how good they are expected to be going forward (and dropping Barca and Leipzig). That also means that Chelsea/Atleti is now the last matchup of 2 teams considered to be in the top 8.

City
Bayern

PSG
Liverpool

Atleti -- Chelsea -- Juve -- Real Madrid (these 4 are very close)

Dortmund
Atalanta
Sevilla

Gladbach
Lazio
Porto

Barca would have been right there just ahead of PSG and Liverpool, and Leipzig probably just ahead of Dortmund.

835. KronicFatigue Posted: February 17, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6005482)

Can someone explain the Messi contract situation to me?

1) At the end of last season, why did he wait too long to activate his buy out? Even by the most liberal reading of his contract, it seemed clear that he waited past the deadline.

2) Barca rejected his demand/request. Why? Did they expect to win him back emotionally and keep him for years to come? Or were they not equipped to take the Messi money and buy all the replacements then and there?

3) This one is my real question: What's the plan now? His contract ends in June, yes? Are they going to lose him on a free? That...can't...be...

836. KronicFatigue Posted: February 17, 2021 at 11:56 AM (#6005484)

PSA that CBS All Access is once again offering a free month with promo code FORYOU. Looks like even current subscribers can tack on another month for free.

I only skimmed the comments (I get my All Access via Sportsline b/c of a crazy good sale, so I can't tack on the month) but looks to still be a good coupon, but you may have to switch payment method to paypal to get it to work. Not sure.

https://slickdeals.net/f/14838358-cbs-all-access-1-month-free-with-promo-code#commentsBox

837. spivey 2 Posted: February 17, 2021 at 03:58 PM (#6005515)

Interesting starts to matches. I thought Sevilla was perhaps good money against Dortmund who have been ####### about in the league recently. Dortmund respond with 3 quick goals and of course no team with Haaland can ever be counted out. I'm convinced that without injury he'll go down as the goal scorer of this generation. He has it all, and good workrate too.

Kronic: Regarding point #2. It seems given the financial issues, that letting Messi walk and rebuilding was absolutely the right financial and sporting decision. They needed to rebuild anyways. Of course, that goes back to getting Griezmann, when with that money they really should have gotten a younger star to take over the team when Messi takes a step back. Now why they didn't?

Speculation, but Barca is a very political club, and I think the people in charge, Bartomeu in particular, did not want to be in charge when Messi, the Greatest of All Time, left the club. Especially leaving the club in disarray and because he doesn't think they can win anymore.

I don't see what option they have - I think he's definitely leaving on a free. Of course there's some musical chairs among a lot of the strikers between the top teams. Like PSG is a big player if they lose Mbappe. But they may not, especially in a COVID year. So what will happen this offseason will be very interesting, I think.

838. manchestermets Posted: February 18, 2021 at 09:24 AM (#6005604)

1) At the end of last season, why did he wait too long to activate his buy out? Even by the most liberal reading of his contract, it seemed clear that he waited past the deadline.

I think there was an assumption on his[ agents]' part that the season being extended due to the pandemic would extend the buyout deadline. It seemed optimistic to assume that.

2) Barca rejected his demand/request. Why? Did they expect to win him back emotionally and keep him for years to come? Or were they not equipped to take the Messi money and buy all the replacements then and there?

Probably nobody was willing to pay what Barca would have demanded without the time-limited reduced buyout. I assume the reduced buyout wouldn't have provided them enough for replacements.

3) This one is my real question: What's the plan now? His contract ends in June, yes? Are they going to lose him on a free? That...can't...be...

It can be if he decides he isn't interested in negotiating an extension. I think he's waiting to see who wins the presidential election before deciding what to do next.

839. I am going to be Frank Posted: February 18, 2021 at 12:59 PM (#6005661)

Bailly looks really bad. Two horrible misplays. Rashford needs to bury that. Looks like the game will be really open.

840. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6005664)

It's been very one-sided so far. You want United to be more solid on defense of course, but they're running all over Sociedad and have had 4 huge chances in 25 minutes... more than most teams get in a full 90.

841. I am going to be Frank Posted: February 18, 2021 at 01:31 PM (#6005665)

Don't understand Sociedad's defensive strategy - highish line, no ball pressure and slow defenders. Spanish language commentators referring to the Three Stooges was apt on the goal.

842. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2021 at 01:53 PM (#6005670)

The last 20 minutes of the half were much more even, with Sociedad maybe slightly better. Probably at least one more goal in this one.

Leverkusen is down 3-0 against Young Boys. They were in the second tier of teams and could easily have made the quarters or even semis, so going out now would be a shock. Maybe saving their strength for the top 4 battle?

843. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2021 at 02:17 PM (#6005674)

This can't be the same Sociedad team that has played such good defense in La Liga.

edit: Leverkusen has come storming back, so currently no upsets on the table.

844. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6005684)

Leicester apparently was quite sluggish. A 0-0 result is not good for them, as now they have to win at home basically without meaningful home field advantage. Same for Leverkusen.

Milan contrived to give up a Fergie time equalizer to 10-man Crvena Zvezda (Serbia's Red Star), so they left themselves with a bit of work to do as well.

845. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6005703)

Uninspired performance by Arsenal was only good enough for a draw, and that's all they deserved. Like Leicester, most likely they will have to win at "home" in Athens (I think) next week to advance, which leaves them a lot of work to do.

Surprise of the day was Granada beating Napoli. Napoli hasn't Europa yet played like they wanted to be here, and today was no exception. Napoli was one of the favorites to win the whole thing.

Rangers with the wild win against Antwerp.

846. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 20, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6005986)

West Brom looked very good today, for the second game in a row, this time with just 10 men. Too little too late, since they only earned 2 points total, but maybe big Sam is really making a difference.

Chelsea had a lot of possession but was fairly anemic otherwise on offense. Might have lost on a defensive error and a cool finish by Minamino but for a stupid tackle by a forward defending in his own box.

Bayern looked mediocre yet again. There probably is only one really good team in the world right now: City.
Frankfurt's win puts even more pressure on Dortmund to get their #### together domestically.

Atletic lost again though they dominated the stats. 538 think Barca is now the favorite in La Liga. (Betting odds doesn't agree, but regardless this race is far from over, despite pundits calling it weeks ago.)

Brentford is choking it away yet again. Another loss today, and now they are in a dogfight for auto-promotion, with resurgent Watford and Swansea. Norwich is currently looking good for promotion.

847. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 20, 2021 at 01:07 PM (#6005991)

My pet team this year is Peterborough, because they got absolutely jobbed by covid robbing them of a playoff spot, which was nabbed by Wycombe, a much poorer teams with the same number of points and way worse GD, but one fewer game played. (538 had Peterborough as the best team in League 1 last year, and Wycombe midtable quality). Wycombe shocked the world (ok, maybe just a few folks in england) by winning the League 1 playoffs to make it to the Championship in their stead. Wycombe is all but relegated at this point. Peterborough also finished 1 point behind 3 other teams, each with the same number of games played.

538 had Peterborough as 59% to make the playoffs (40% to be promoted) when the league was called, with Wycombe at 27% (7% promoted).

848. jmurph Posted: February 20, 2021 at 02:14 PM (#6005999)

How the hell is that TAA penalty foul not carded?

849. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 20, 2021 at 02:32 PM (#6006005)

538 has Liverpool as essentially even for top 4 odds, with Leicester and Chelsea. Betting odds will be a little more favorable, but they've really put themselves in danger now.

850. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 20, 2021 at 04:19 PM (#6006020)

One explanation could be that TAA was originally making a play on the ball, whereas Luiz was not. Thus probably no red card. However, that doesn't do anything to explain why there was no yellow card, as if it was a foul at all it had to be DOGSO. Since there was a penalty and (what should have been) DOGSO I think a yellow is automatic. I don't think they reviewed the incident for DOGSO and/or a red card though, but if they had maybe they could have awarded a yellow on review. I'm not sure about that, as the VAR rules are particular.

851. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: February 20, 2021 at 04:21 PM (#6006021)

That was a wonderful win today. Man to see big Dunc practically in tears at the end was something else.

Jmurph - I think TAA didn’t get a card because he genuinely could do nothing about it. Letter of the law, yeah probably should’ve been a card but I have no problem with that one.

852. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 20, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6006025)

Over the last 19 games, including today (the equivalent of half a season) Fulham has been solidly midtable. They've also played a pretty average schedule in that the teams they've played twice were about as good as the teams they didn't play in that stretch.

Fortune hasn't been on their side in that stretch, as even if they win today they'll have only earned 21 points in the table. Still, that's right there with a large group of other teams over the last 19 games though, including Wolves, Leeds, Southampton, Brighton, Palace, and Newcastle. And many more points than West Brom and Sheffield United. By 538 Fulham's ranking has gone up the most by gar during that stretch.

In other words, if Fulham wins today definitely don't count them out yet.

853. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 20, 2021 at 05:16 PM (#6006029)

How big is the West Ham Tottenham game tomorrow? With Liverpool and Chelsea both dropping points, both teams have to think the door is open for a top 4 slot. A draw really won't get it done for either team though. Both are currently outsiders looking in, but aside from the teams in the thick of the race these two have the next best chance. Betting odds has Spurs at 18% and West Ham at 11%. 538 likes West Ham more at 17% and Spurs at 15%.

854. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 21, 2021 at 08:10 AM (#6006058)

Sanchez and Dier are so bad.

855. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 21, 2021 at 08:11 AM (#6006059)

That second goal by West Ham might have been onside for three separate reasons: the offensive player might not have been in an offensive position when the ball was played, the ball might have been played by the Tottenham defense and not Lingard, and the offensive player may never have made a play on the ball anyway, since Lingard himself took the shot.

856. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 21, 2021 at 08:57 AM (#6006061)

Bale was quite good today. Dele...not so much.

857. KronicFatigue Posted: February 21, 2021 at 09:12 AM (#6006063)

Dele didn't seem to be sprinting all-out on that golden 3v1 opportunity with Kane on the right.

858. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 21, 2021 at 12:00 PM (#6006082)

With the results today, especially assuming City holds on (which, let's face it, is very likely), West Ham is looking very good for Europa, and still with an outside shot at Top 4. 538 has them at 75% chance to finish in the Top 7. Betting odds is surely less, but certainly over 50%. West Ham has opened a small gap between themselves and the other chasing teams in the top half of the league (Spurs, Everton, Villa, Arsenal).

Of course, Spurs could win the EFL cup, and Everton or Southampton could conceivably win the FA cup, so there could end up being fewer slots available.

859. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 21, 2021 at 02:46 PM (#6006110)

United has been outplayed now for three straight halves in the league, against maybe the worst teams in the league. They really seem to struggle against packed-in defenses again, just like they did at the beginning of last year. Again, Pogba would help a lot but Fernandes and really needs to do more and the offensive line needs more movement.

860. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 22, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6006256)

I haven't watched the game but just saw the stats flash on screen - it was something like 76%-24% possession and 22-1 shots for Brighton. Obviously the score is the score, but shouldn't you be a little bit embarrassed if you're Crystal Palace? As well as they've played this season (other than goal output), this is Brighton, not a huge side.

861. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 22, 2021 at 04:52 PM (#6006258)

And now they've gone and won it from Christian Benteke of all people.

I'm not sure what the Brighton defender was doing there. He didn't close down the only shooting angle.

862. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 22, 2021 at 06:49 PM (#6006273)

That game really was peak Brighton. 538 has xG as 2.9 - 0.3.

863. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 24, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6006595)

With basically no home field advantage in these 2-legged ties, inferior or even evenly-matched teams have zero incentive to push the action at home in the first leg of the tie (due to the away goals rule) at least until they go behind. That's made worse today by Atalanta going down to 10 early.

864. The Marksist Posted: February 24, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#6006597)

That red for Atalanta felt like a total umpshow moment. Arguably a DOGSO I guess, but didn't seem obvious to me.

865. spivey 2 Posted: February 24, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6006602)

I think you can make arguments for the red, but if you're making those arguments, I feel like there's multiple reds every game (not just on cynical last man challenges, but on all sorts of other reckless stuff).

I think 9 out of 10 times, that's yellow, and I think that would be appropriate. I think the angle that Mendy would be coming in on goal likely would be a good but not great xG chance. I dunno, I'm conflicted, because I don't like tactical fouling either.

866. The Marksist Posted: February 24, 2021 at 04:56 PM (#6006606)

Tactical fouling is super annoying. Inconsistent reffing is also super annoying.

867. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 24, 2021 at 04:56 PM (#6006607)

Even a 0-1 loss isn't a killer for Atalanta, and if I were them I would have taken it the minute after going down to 10. 0-0 would have been a good result even at full strength (considering lack of home field advantage and the away goals rule), and it would have been fantastic down a man for almost the whole game.

I missed the red. I will say DOGSO's have historically not been given very liberally--usually if there is doubt it's just a yellow. (obligatory: for me all tactical fouls would be an automatic yellow, with maybe 5 minutes in the penalty box. Make it an ejection for any aggravating factor. And fine to give them on VAR if we must have VAR. Let's rid the game of them.)

868. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6006777)

Arsenal survived. Barely! They were the better team over two legs, but hardly dominant. Got very lucky that an injury time potential winner went off the base of the post. Not sure if it would have been offside.

Only upsets so far have been Granada over Napoli, and Molde over Hoffenheim (despite Hoffenheim totally dominating both legs).

869. jmurph Posted: February 25, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6006787)

I wonder if that's it for Gattuso at Napoli, there have been reports the last few weeks he's on thin ice.

870. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2021 at 04:08 PM (#6006791)

If Leicester is going to advance, they will need to come from behind with two second half goals. They haven't looked like they have that in them so far over 140 minutes.

871. spivey 2 Posted: February 25, 2021 at 04:15 PM (#6006792)

The Europa league is pretty darn fun at this time. The big sides from the small leagues and the good-but-not great teams from the big leagues that may also be rotating.

872. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2021 at 04:59 PM (#6006795)

Leverkusen and Leicester are both going to go out, after very disappointing games. Those were two of the second-tier favorites in the tournament.

The favorites now are United, Arsenal, Spurs, with Villarreal, Roma, Milan, and Ajax probably in the second tier.

Other unseeded team won in the late gams as well: Olympiakos (basically given an even chance to beat PSV) got a late goal to advance ahead of PSV in the waning minutes, and Kyiv beat Brugge.

There's a pretty big gap between the top leagues and the others going into the next round, because Germany, France, Portugal, and Russia, and even Belgium and Asutria, all have no remaining teams left. After England, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands (Ajax only), you have a big drop down to probably Shakhtar from Ukraine and Rangers from Scotland.

873. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2021 at 06:14 PM (#6006810)

Betting odds, by percentage to win Europa (pre-draw, so a good indication of expected relative team strength).

ManUnited        23.5
Tottenham        13            
Arsenal          11.5
Milan             9
Ajax              8
Roma              6.5
Villarreal        6.5

Rangers           4.5
Shakhtar          4
Granada           3.5
Olympiakos        3
Zagreb            2
Kyiv              1.5
Prague            1.5
Young Boys        1.5
Molde             0.5

874. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2021 at 08:25 AM (#6006857)

United once again gets the hardest Europa draw, with Milan. None of the other 5 teams in the top group above play each other. Arsenal and Roma get the highest qualify opponents from the lower group, in Olympiakos and Shakhtar. Spurs should have another easy time of it (and at this point the Europa route to next year's CL is clearly easier than the league route).

United v Milan
Arsenal v Olympiakos
Spurs v Zagreb
Ajax v Young Boys
Roma v Shakhtar
Villarreal v Kyiv
Rangers v Prague
Granada v Molde

875. KronicFatigue Posted: February 26, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6006862)

The new market inefficiency is Jose parking the PL.

876. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2021 at 10:32 AM (#6006870)

Early odds on Europa matchups, to advance, listed by order of competitiveness. (538 in parens)

Rangers     over Slavia          56    (53)
United      over Milan           61    (73) 
Ajax        over Young Boys      62    (64)
Roma        over Shakhtar        66    (60)

Arsenal     over Olympiakos      76    (66)
Granada     over Molde           78    (56)
Villarreal  over Kyiv            78    (73)
Spurs       over Zagreb          84    (64)

Basically no agreement between betting odds and 538. It's all over the map, but the main reasons are 538 hates Mlian, Tottenham, and Granada. To a lesser extent they like most of the underdogs more than betting odds.

edit: 538 basically did the same thing in the last round, being much more favorable to the underdogs overall. Betting odds probably did slightly better in the actual results, but it was within the margin of error (probably not surprising for just 16 matchups).

877. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2021 at 07:54 PM (#6006937)

WTF did I just read?? This espn article titularly is about why teams build out from the back, but it only has this turd of a couple sentences to actually make any attempt to explain it:

But building a high line generally requires quite a bit of passing in the back, and yes, the goalkeeper sometimes gets involved. As Gab Marcotti wrote after Alisson's dueling howlers, "they don't do it because they like to needlessly have a giggle or show off their tekkers mid-game. They do it because their managers believe it gives them an edge in terms of breaking the press or enabling them to play a higher line or whatever, and that edge translates in goals and chances created.

So, two reasons. 1: breaking the press, which reverses cause and effect, as there is no press unless you play out from the back, and 2) "building a high line", the purpose of which is to maintain quality possession in the opponent's territory, so is also basically reversing cause and effect.

A much better article is this one, which gives multiple reasons:

1. Control of the game - Especially important for the better teams to enforce their superiority
2. Staying connected - This has to do with quality of possession, but also defensive shape if the ball is turned over.
3. Progress - a little bit like the above, but solely for attacking. It's easier to push the ball up the field if possession is more controlled.
4. Superiority - this is a bit like "breaking the press". The idea is that you can possess the ball up the field with numerical superiority. Note though that it only makes sense if the other side actually presses, and the other side will only press because they don't want to cede the three points listed above, basically quality, controlled possession deep in their own territory.
5. Unpredictability - many more options to do different types of things when the ball is under control al the way up the field. Another offensive point.
6. Enjoyment - better buy-in from players and the team if they get to play the ball more often, because it's more satisfying. Another offensive point.

None of the reasons are "building a high line", which is a secondary effect of having possession in the other team's half, and the main purpose of which is to maintain quality possession in the opponent's half using a risk/reward strategy which is a bit similar in purpose to building our from the back.

All the reasons are really about getting quality possessions in the opposing half in the first place. Almost all teams press against play out from the back, at least a bit, because allowing the other team unopposed to have controlled possession in your half puts you at a big disadvantage. Ultimately that's the goal. If City could start every possession in the opposing team's half under control they'd take it and never play a single pass in their own half.

878. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: February 27, 2021 at 10:40 AM (#6006961)

Free kick goal for Brighton! But not a goal because ref Lee Mason hadn’t blown the whistle! But then it’s a goal because Mason said he did blow his whistle! But then it’s not a goal because Mason changes his mind and says he didn’t blow his whistle!

So yeah, Brighton-West Brom had a talking point at least.

879. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2021 at 11:38 AM (#6006965)

West Brom looked like they were going to continue their great form in their run of games, and were all over Brighton early. They're still winning, but they've been completely dominated for the last hour. Two well-earned penalties missed by Brighton, along with numerous other chances. Looks like it might be another Brighton special.

880. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2021 at 12:42 PM (#6006971)

Huge, quality win by Barca over Sevilla, and 538 has them as favorites in a very tight La Liga race. Betting odds still thinks Atleti is the solid favorite.

538 might underrate Atleti a bit, as if there is any team that has consistently outperformed xG and non-shot xG, it's Atleti under El Cholo. Atleti has outperformed xGD by every year, mostly by a big margin, since 2014 except for last year. Way up again this year. Over the last 7 years, the overperformance has been about equal on offense and defense.

881. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 27, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6006983)

Clearly I was premature on Monday saying that game was peak Brighton, because this game was peak Brighton.

882. Swedish Chef Posted: February 27, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6006985)

I think I'll stop worrying about Villa getting relegated now.

883. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 28, 2021 at 09:23 AM (#6007003)

With that poor game and loss, 538 has Leicester ranked as 9th best in the EPL, behind Tottenham, West Ham, and Brighton. Arsenal is now a very solid 5th. Leicester's loss also gives a glimmer of hope for the chasing pack for top 4. As probably quite a bit weaker than Liverpool, Chelsea, and United, any hope of one of the chasing teams nabbing a top 4 spot late is likely going to require Leicester to slip up.

884. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 28, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6007022)

Decent but not great game between Chelsea and United. Chelsea was the better team but not enough to ensure a win, and they certainly won't be happy with a draw. On the other hand, a draw was all United really needed today, since the title has been out of reach for a few weeks already. They'll be happy with the result but maybe not that happy with their play in the second half.

Betting odds now have City's odds to win the league at over 99%. 538 probably has them at over 99.5%

885. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 28, 2021 at 04:24 PM (#6007041)

Relegation odds (betting odds, then 538)

SheffieldUnited     98        98
West Brom           92        97

Fulham              47        46
Newcastle           36        33

Burnley             13        13
Brighton            10         7

Palace               2         3
Southampton          2         3

886. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 28, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6007045)

Top 4 odds (betting odds, then 538)

ManchesterUnited   82       85

Liverpool          60       61
Leicester          54       48
Chelsea            53       47

WestHam            15.5     26
Tottenham          14       14
Everton             9.5      7
Villa               7.5      8
Arsenal             4.5      5

887. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 28, 2021 at 04:54 PM (#6007048)

The season is now exactly 2/3 over. Every team has played 26 games, except Villa/Everton, Villa/Tottenham, and Everton/Southampton.
Expected team strength for last third of the season, measured by expected points to be earned. First betting odds, then 538. Schedule strength and remaining games taken into account in the order/grouping of teams.

                             odds    538
Manchester City               28.5    28       

Liverpool                     25.5    24 
        
Chelsea                       22      22                    
Manchester United             21      22   

Tottenham                     22      21  (one game in hand)
Arsenal                       20.5    20                    
Leicester                     19      17                   

West Ham                      17.5    18                     
Aston Villa                   18.5    19  (two games in hand) 
Everton                       19.5    18  (two games in hand)

Southampton                   16.5    15  (one game in hand) 
Brighton                      15      16                                 
Leeds United                  15      14              
Wolverhampton                 14.5    14                                                     
   
Fulham                        12      13   
Burnley                       10.5    13 
Crystal Palace                 9.5    10   
    
Sheffield United              11      13                        
Newcastle                     10      12 
West Brom                      9       9   

Total                        337     338

888. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 28, 2021 at 08:06 PM (#6007053)

Bale back in form, Sissoko-Winks didn't play, Dier didn't play. Can't complain about anything today! Well, maybe Hojbjerg picked up an injury at the end, but that's about it.

889. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2021 at 03:03 PM (#6007468)

Game saving DOGSO by Sheffield United? Not exactly... chance of a goal there was certainly well below 50%. Maybe below 25%. No harm, despite the called foul. The game probably kills off Villa's chances for Top 4, but it's still too late for Sheffield United to survive.

Leicester looks bad, yet again. I know they have injuries, but if they can't get more depth than I'm not exactly excited to see them in the CL next year. I'd certainly prefer Liverpool or (gag) Chelsea, and also would be happier to see Spurs, Arsenal or even West Ham there. Everton I'm not so sure about.

890. I am going to be Frank Posted: March 03, 2021 at 05:02 PM (#6007511)

United lacking creativity. Way too reliant on Fernandes to create something. Granted, Palace is pretty good at bus parking, and has had some decent chances as well.

891. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2021 at 05:19 PM (#6007515)

United has not been very good in the league for weeks. Their record is massively propped up by that Southampton wipeout against 10 men.

Other than that one, their best games were probably the ones against Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool, considering the quality of the opposition. All were draws.

I wouldn't expect much from them against City, except you never know as they don't much creativity to stifle City and try to win on the break.

892. KronicFatigue Posted: March 04, 2021 at 02:26 PM (#6007651)

That has the be the worst handball call I've ever seen. If that's the correct call by the letter of the law, the rule needs to be torn up right this second.

Tottenham, attempting to clear the ball, smashes it into a Fullham player 2 feet away. The guy's arm was down completely attached to his side of the body. The ball bounced into his arm and a teammate shot and scored.

Absurd on its face (and I'm rooting for Spurs)

893. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2021 at 03:20 PM (#6007669)

Yeah that call and/or rule is outrageous. Type to dump it.

This Liverpool/Chellsea game is an extremely high leverage tilt between two of the top teams in the world (4th and 5th best, if you believe 538. Both top 10 in the world even if you don't). If you can't get up for this one...

894. The Marksist Posted: March 04, 2021 at 04:07 PM (#6007673)

If you can't get up for this one...

I mean, I'm a Liverpool fan and it's hard to get excited about them right now. Like, I feel like we have the answer to "what if a great team but no defenders" based on the first two thirds of the season.

895. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2021 at 05:03 PM (#6007679)

Announcers still expressing amazement at home/away streaks this year. Liverpool might lose their 5th straight at home.

Home teams have 99 wins 103 losses, and 62 draws in the EPL this year, and there's basically no home field advantage.

896. Mefisto Posted: March 04, 2021 at 05:20 PM (#6007682)

Sure is evidence in favor of the theory that crowd noise affects the ref.

897. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2021 at 05:27 PM (#6007685)

Liverpool is under 50/50 now for the CL. They have the easiest schedule of any of the teams battling for a top 4 spot now though, and as long as they beat almost all the the teams they face in the bottom half of the table they will likely make it.

898. OPS+ Posted: March 05, 2021 at 07:38 AM (#6007717)

Sure is evidence in favor of the theory that crowd noise affects the ref.

And the players.

899. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 06, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#6007830)

Dortmund with the early 2-0 lead in der klassiker, with 2 goals by Haaland already.

A win by Dortmund would go a very long way towards cementing a CL spot. Probably too late for Dortmund to win the league, but definitely opens the door for Leipzig.

Gladbach lost to Leverkusen, so there are only 6 teams in the CL race. Gladbach's struggles have thrown the last EL spot wide open, such that we might even see new blood there next year in the form of Freiburg or most notably Union Berlin.

900. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 06, 2021 at 01:07 PM (#6007832)

Norwich has been on a tear, winning their last 7 over the last month. They'll be back in the EPL next year. The auto-promotion spot is wide open, with Watford, Brentford, and Swansea all hoping to claim it.

Coming into the season Watford and Brentford were considered the best two teams in the Championship, and maybe most likely to succeed in the EPL, so I'm hoping they both still get promoted. Won't be easy making it through the playoff though.

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