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Monday, June 01, 2015

OT: Monthly NBA Thread - June 2015

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: trusting the Red Sox process.

The District Attorney Posted: June 01, 2015 at 11:11 AM | 3045 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   2901. theboyqueen Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:58 AM (#4989534)
MLB may have twice the revenue, but that's more than offset by the difference in roster size. Plus superstars in the NBA matter so much more, both for marketing and for winning, than they do in MLB.

I'm pretty sure prime Lebron on an open market would be in the 75-100 million range.
   2902. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: July 01, 2015 at 01:09 AM (#4989537)
What's up with his salaries on the Bulls? In 1997, when Jordan made 33 million, Pippen made less than 3 million. I sure hope Jordan took care of him.

In like '91, Pippen signed a five-year extension that took him through '98, right before a period of massive salary inflation. Jordan got the big one-year contracts his last two years after his long-term contract -- that paid like four million -- finally ended.
   2903. Maxwn Posted: July 01, 2015 at 01:27 AM (#4989539)
but that's more than offset by the difference in roster size.

I doubt that very much myself. Most of the additional players MLB teams have they don't really pay that much. It isn't gonna eat the majority of the revenue difference.

Plus superstars in the NBA matter so much more, both for marketing and for winning, than they do in MLB.

I know that. I said so before. I just don't agree with you that it offsets the difference in size between the 2 leagues so as to make a top NBA player worth double an MLB player. They might be worth more, but if so, I would guess it's on the order of 10-20%. I wouldn't be surprised if it was roughly equivalent.

I'm pretty sure prime Lebron on an open market would be in the 75-100 million range.

A year? I think this is probably too high. NBA players are valuable, but the Lakers, who make the most of anyone, only made $293m in revenue in 2015 according to Forbes. $100m is 1/3 of that. I have a really hard time believing it could be profitable to pay 1 guy 1/3 of your revenue. I don't think he brings in that kind of money alone. Even as great as he was in his prime, there were still other players who were reasonably close substitutes in on-court value and marketability. And most teams make quite a bit less than that. And again, according to Forbes, the Lakers made the most money in the league, despite the fact that they sucked. That makes me extremely skeptical that an individual great player moves the needle enough to be worth paying $100m a year.

I could be wrong, but I would expect something more like $50m. Which is more than MLB players ever make, but you have to remember that MLB doesn't have a completely unrestricted labor market either. For one thing, MLB players tend to hit free agency at later ages. If that was not the case and a young ace hit free agency at 24 or something, I wouldn't be shocked if they were worth $50m per also.

Anyway, mandatory disclaimer, while I am an economist, I have never studied this and I did not sleep in a Holiday Inn last night, so I'm just guessing based on what seems reasonable to me. I could be way wrong.
   2904. Squash Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:15 AM (#4989545)
I think this is probably too high. NBA players are valuable, but the Lakers, who make the most of anyone, only made $293m in revenue in 2015 according to Forbes.

It'll be interesting to see what that number turns into once the new TV deal kicks in. This is idiot math, but the salary cap is 50% of revenues, no? If the salary cap is going up $30 million over the next two years, does that mean your average team is adding $60 million to revenues? If that's true the Lakers are up to ~$355 million, which would put them 5th in MLB and within shouting distance of 3 and 4.
   2905. Maxwn Posted: July 01, 2015 at 03:12 AM (#4989548)
Oh I have no doubt that a handful of the biggest NBA teams have as deep or deeper pockets than most MLB teams. But the labor market is defined by the league as a whole and even a big team is going to calculate what they have to pay based on what it takes to win the bidding and whether that bid will be worth it in terms of added money to them. That's where the revenues of the league are suggestive and that's why I doubt that the answer is $100m per even for Prime Lebron in the current environment. But I could be wrong, like you said, this is idiot math based on stuff from Wikipedia and Forbes which may not even be right.

That said, I thought about it some more and I do think it's possible that Lebron in his prime in the current environment might very well be worth $100m+ per year to the league as a whole and its constituent teams. But even if you were to eliminate the cap and the max contract, I don't think he would capture a significant chunk of that because it does not accrue to the team that would be paying him. When Lebron jumped to Miami and generate all kinds of controversy, that interest was good for the league. And when the Heat were the super villains of the NBA for 4 years, that was good for the league. And when he went home to Cleveland...etc. But while some of that interest was directed to the team that paid him, some of it wasn't. And when Lebron's team is playing in Memphis on a Friday night, that's good for the Grizzlies. It may be good for Cleveland too, but not all the revenue he generates on nights like that is going to the team that pays him. Absent a major shift in the structure of the league, an individual team has no reason to pay a player for the revenue they generate for the league as a whole or the other teams.

Essentially I'm arguing that superstars in the NBA are in some sense a public good. And individual actors are willing to pay for their individual benefits from a public good, though there could also be free-riding concerns, but generally not for the benefits that go to other people - because, well, they go to other people. So from my point of view, prime Lebron caliber players might possibly be worth $100m+ to the NBA and related businesses, but I doubt they are worth that much to a single team, even in an unrestricted labor market without a cap or max. But who the hell knows?
   2906. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 01, 2015 at 06:11 AM (#4989550)
   2907. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 07:24 AM (#4989555)
re: Pippen's salary

IIRC the Jerries have claimed in the past they told Pippen not to sign the deal but that Pippen had insisted on long term security. He was coming off an injury and wanted the protection. The Bulls never really paid Pippen. He got paid by other teams. Even late in his career after his athleticism was gone he was still helping teams like the Blazers win. If not for a Blazers meltdown he very well could have gone to a finals with them without Jordan playing as a deluxe role player. That Blazer team was very good.

The salary thing was the primary motivating factor for why Pippen and Jordan resented Kukoc so much. Oddly enough Reinsdorf given his behavior towards Pippen with the late career gift basket signing and post career actions does genuinely appear to have held some, if not quite guilt, desire to make Pippen whole. That's always just been my opinion but there are quotes that exist that he advised Pippen not to sign the deal he did in his prime.
   2908. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2015 at 08:13 AM (#4989562)
Rumor!

Kings courting Rondo
that'd be a good move for them. i'd like to see them get psycho t and matt barnes, too.

seriously. they should make that team insufferable to play against.
   2909. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 01, 2015 at 09:21 AM (#4989593)
This is old, but:

The hope with a guy like Calipari in a miserable market like Sacramento is that he brings enough gravitas that good players want to play here.


Not going to happen. Unless by "good players" you specifically meant "DeMarcus Cousins"; then maybe.

Dumping Cousins for pennies on the dollar would be a less bad long term move than paying Calipari tens of millions and giving him total personnel control. He is not qualified for that level of salary or power in the NBA.
   2910. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 09:42 AM (#4989617)
I suspect that the top NBA players are worth more than the top MLB players, despite the disparity in team values, simply because they occupy a much larger share of a team's contributions to winning. Trout's "usage rate" isn't appreciably higher than, say, Erick Aybar's.

Calipari isn't coming to the NBA anytime soon. The end.
   2911. spivey Posted: July 01, 2015 at 09:50 AM (#4989625)
Watching some of the Pippen highlights, it was striking how much skinnier players were. Players today seem to have a ton more muscle on their bodies.
   2912. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:02 AM (#4989638)
So there is a report that Dragic signed for $18M/year - I'm a very casual follower of the NBA, but that seems like a lot.

edit: and two teams have offered 4 years/$80M for Milsap. I can't imagine what the contracts are going to look like after the cap goes up.
   2913. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:03 AM (#4989639)
Lots of signings, or ones that are close:

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 20m20 minutes ago
ESPN sources say Goran Dragic has a five-year, $90 million deal from the Miami Heat


Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 6m6 minutes ago
Whoa. My man @Chris_Broussard just reported Orlando has offered Paul Millsap four-year, $80 mil max to give Hawks something to worry about


Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 1h1 hour ago
ESPN sources say Portland Trail Blazers and Damian Lillard are nearing agreement on a five-year max extension with in excess of $120 million


Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 51m51 minutes ago
ESPN sources say Chicago Bulls are closing in on a three-year, $15 million deal to bring back in-demand swingman Mike Dunleavy


Stein is kicking Wojo's ass all over the place right now.

Looks like the Bulls are bringing back the entire team, save Thibs, for another run. We'll see if that works. They still can spend the MLE on a backup PG, and probably should.
   2914. Norcan Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:05 AM (#4989641)
The Spurs finally hand out a max contract and of course it's only going to stand as max contract for one season. That's just too fitting. They may get to do that again if they sign Aldridge. My annoyance with the Spurs largely stems from envy.

It's so unfair that Lillard is about to sign a contract that's going to give him at least 30 million more than Kawhi over the same number of years, with the potential to boost the difference another 20 million or so if he makes another All-NBA team.

Not a fan of the Aminu deal. It's not so much about the money because I guess those concerns are invalidated with the new impending salary landscape but the years. How many impactful games has he really had? Most of them came in the playoff series against the Rockets. It wouldn't entirely be a shocker if he ends up being the floor spacing liability and poor decision maker he's mostly been for his entire career, gets his minutes slashed as a result and Portland spends three years trying to move him.
   2915. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:05 AM (#4989642)
So there is a report that Dragic signed for $18M/year - I'm a very casual follower of the NBA, but that seems like a lot.

Seems like it's actually less than the max, which is what everyone assumed he'd get.

I can't imagine what the contracts are going to look like after the cap goes up.

Lowe's FA Primer is an absolute must read. Also:

Mark Deeks ‏@MarkDeeksNBA 14m14 minutes ago
@ZachLowe_NBA I'm working on a theory that's basically work out what someone should be worth, times it by 1.5, then add a bit.


Seems probably right.
   2916. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:07 AM (#4989647)
Seems weird Dunleavy is only getting 5 mil a year.
   2917. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:08 AM (#4989649)
Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 52s52 seconds ago
Mike Dunleavy Jr., has agreed to a three-year, $14.4 million deal with the Chicago Bulls, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.


He's 35, and still good. So I'm not worried about next year, and then the $ is essentially nothing that last 2 years. So, guess I'm saying I'm fine with it.
   2918. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:17 AM (#4989663)
edit: and two teams have offered 4 years/$80M for Milsap. I can't imagine what the contracts are going to look like after the cap goes up.


there's no reason to roll your cap space into next year because everyone will have it next year and the year after. it's not exactly a 'use it or lose it' situation, but it's damn close to that.
   2919. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:21 AM (#4989671)
LBJ is not better at perimeter/wing defense than Pippen, because really nobody is (except maybe Jordan).

Moses, I'll defer to you, but IMHO, I think Pippen was a better defender than Lebron. Pippen was just so quick. He just killed the Knicks on and off the ball on D, and it seemed like he could legitimately match up against anyone in the 1-4 spots. I loved him, and hated him.

I probably missed a "likely everything" qualifier in my LBJ/Pip post. LeBron's D has slipped lately, and he's especially pacing himself more in the regular season. It's also hard to compare the 2 straight up with the different defensive rules; though honestly Pip would probably be even better in the zone NBA. I still have nightmares about how LBJ absolutely swallowed up Rose in the ECF a few years back. And there's a little of me projecting this into it (plus LBJ just being bigger and faster):

Of course Jordan took the offensive pressure off and if LeBron wasn't generally carrying the offense he may have surpassed him on defense. I don't think so though.

So, in summary, I agree with everyone else that I should have said Pip was better on D.

The salary thing was the primary motivating factor for why Pippen and Jordan resented Kukoc so much. Oddly enough Reinsdorf given his behavior towards Pippen with the late career gift basket signing and post career actions does genuinely appear to have held some, if not quite guilt, desire to make Pippen whole. That's always just been my opinion but there are quotes that exist that he advised Pippen not to sign the deal he did in his prime.

Yes, the money was always a sore spot with Pip, and a big reason he was in reality the first guy out the door after the 2nd 3peat. Pip got $10.3mil for 23 terrible games at the end of his career from the Bulls, and is still on the payroll now (he only got about $20mil for the first 10 years in Chicago). So it's all good with him now (well, besides the fact that he lost all his money and is probably living paycheck to paycheck on whatever the Bulls are giving him).

---

It's really quite remarkable that a coaching tyrant has one of the slickest images in college basketball.

Coach K is much more of a tyrant that Validation ever was, IMO.
   2920. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:21 AM (#4989673)
Seems weird Dunleavy is only getting 5 mil a year.

Last year is only partially guaranteed, too. He must have just really wanted to stay here.
   2921. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:29 AM (#4989685)
Match it, Atlanta.

Dang it - I wish we'd given Millsap more than 2 years to start with / had more than Early Bird rights. I understand why everyone thought that that was great for them to do but he was so self-evidently a steal at the time... sigh.
   2922. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:38 AM (#4989700)
Match it, Atlanta.

Can they?

Bobby Marks ‏@BobbyMarks42 31m31 minutes ago
If reports are true than ATL is going to have to get creative with the cap. Early Bird rights with Paul and Carroll might haunt them.
   2923. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:40 AM (#4989702)
Zach Lowe ‏@ZachLowe_NBA 32m32 minutes ago
Building on @KBergCBS report that 15-16 cap may jump from $67M to $69M: 1 Seems possible/likely, per sources; 2 League hasn't told teams yet

Mark Deeks ‏@MarkDeeksNBA 31m31 minutes ago
@ZachLowe_NBA @KBergCBS Maybe some of them will have Twitter accounts, might see it that way

Zach Lowe ‏@ZachLowe_NBA 29m29 minutes ago
@MarkDeeksNBA @KBergCBS They see it. They just want confirmation, getting frustrated league won't provide it.
   2924. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:40 AM (#4989703)
Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 28m28 minutes ago
Hearing Bulls swingman Jimmy Butler is leaning strongly toward taking the five-year, $90 mil max Chicago offered as opposed to shorter deal


This makes me very happy.
   2925. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:44 AM (#4989711)
Kelly Scaletta ‏@KellyScaletta 16m16 minutes ago Texas, USA
When all is said and done, Wade will make about $100 million less than Melo in his career. That's what he sacrificed.


That's something.
   2926. Squash Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:45 AM (#4989712)
Watching some of the Pippen highlights, it was striking how much skinnier players were. Players today seem to have a ton more muscle on their bodies.

Re: player size, somehow I missed this, but I was at a bbq this weekend and someone was telling me about the Twitter/Reddit theory that the reason LeBron and Carmelo both lost a ton of weight this offseason is that the league internally had a chat with some stars about getting off PEDs this past offseason. I.e. that it was the "I started taking yoga" effect.
   2927. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 10:50 AM (#4989727)
Can they?

With creativity, yes. With ease, no.
   2928. Norcan Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:08 AM (#4989756)
Did Carmelo really lose a lot of weight in the last offseason? I didn't think he looked that much different. I did think he lost another whatever fraction of a step last season, adding to the other fractions he's kept losing. I wonder about him. For his whole career he's been among the leaders in getting his shot blocked; he doesn't have too much more athleticism to spare before he crosses the tipping point. Last season he was having more difficulty getting by defenders than I could recall. With his physical style of offense and level of athleticism, he was never going to be someone who aged too gracefully. I don't think he's necessarily going to be over the hill by next season but I could see him shooting in the low-40s with cratered efficiency in two seasons.
   2929. Kurt Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:11 AM (#4989760)
Yes, the money was always a sore spot with Pip, and a big reason he was in reality the first guy out the door after the 2nd 3peat. Pip got $10.3mil for 23 terrible games at the end of his career from the Bulls, and is still on the payroll now (he only got about $20mil for the first 10 years in Chicago). So it's all good with him now (well, besides the fact that he lost all his money and is probably living paycheck to paycheck on whatever the Bulls are giving him).


Pippen was on some silly show on Fox after the soccer game last night; hopefully they threw him a few shekels for that.
   2930. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:20 AM (#4989777)
I think players other than Karl Malone suddenly got more muscular about 15 years ago.
   2931. Rally Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:26 AM (#4989788)
Watching some of the Pippen highlights, it was striking how much skinnier players were. Players today seem to have a ton more muscle on their bodies.


Pippen is a very good example of the trend. He was extremely skinny as a rookie, put on a good bit of muscle mid career.
   2932. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:29 AM (#4989793)
@Chris_Broussard: Sources: Danny Green has agreed to a 4 year, $45 million deal with the Spurs


That doesn't help the Spurs with LMA, but I'm sure they'll figure something out.
   2933. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:32 AM (#4989797)
David Aldridge ‏@daldridgetnt 24m24 minutes ago
Marc Gasol, Grizzlies owner Robert Pera working out details on new contract today in Barcelona, per source.


And I missed these earlier:

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 9h9 hours ago
ESPN sources say Milwaukee and Khris Middleton are closing in on five-year, $70 million deal


If it ends up being that, that will be the best contract of this FA period.

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 11h11 hours ago
Says at least one source close to talks on expected 3/60M deal for Brook Lopez and 4/50M deal for Thad Young: "Consider them done deals"


These are not as good. Wojo confirmed those amounts and says it's done.
   2934. i hear there are a lot of dead animals in 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:43 AM (#4989811)
That doesn't help the Spurs with LMA, but I'm sure they'll figure something out.
they could use splitter and mills in a sign and trade. the euro they drafted this year and the one they drafted two or three years ago could be the necessary sweeteners.
   2935. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:44 AM (#4989813)
Buzz seems to be that Diaw might go.
   2936. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:47 AM (#4989814)
Splitter to Atlanta.
   2937. JJ1986 Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:49 AM (#4989816)
I guess Millsap's going to Orlando.
   2938. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:54 AM (#4989822)
The idea that PED use == huge muscles is so dumb that it's not even wrong.
   2939. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:55 AM (#4989825)
2936 - Cite?
   2940. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:57 AM (#4989827)
Re: PEDS

A number of writers wink about LeBron and PEDS. Whether that is just wild speculation or something they have been told and can't verify who knows. Given the overwhelming physical demands of the sport and the recovery problems associated with things like back to backs I would be shocked if a large number of players were not on something in the past. Anecdotally it sure does seem like injuries are happening more since testing and there has been a push to change scheduling practices. Whether that is related to an undercurrent of PEDS being a problem previously, who knows.

I will say that I've always found LeBron's total body cramp problems strange. Not associated with PEDS per se but surreal nonetheless.

TLDR LeBron/ Carmelo PEDs: Who knows but a lot of players were probably doing something. Incentives were huge.

Edit to add: Muscles as TFT mentions isn't the incentive, I agree. Lots of skinny pitchers were doing PEDS. Recovery is the ticket.
   2941. vagab0nd kills for candy Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:58 AM (#4989829)
Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 2m2 minutes ago

Pop is awake
   2942. King Mekong Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:58 AM (#4989830)
Really starting to look like LMA/LA to the spurs, if so just a great offseason and a killer starting lineup for SA.
   2943. vagab0nd kills for candy Posted: July 01, 2015 at 11:59 AM (#4989832)
2939:
Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 13m13 minutes ago

The San Antonio Spurs have traded center Tiago Splitter to the Atlanta Hawks, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.
   2944. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:00 PM (#4989834)
Thanks. Something's up with my twitter feed today.
   2945. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:01 PM (#4989835)
Splitter to ATL is a sort of confirm/pre-cursor to LMA in SA and Millsap not in ATL.
   2946. vagab0nd kills for candy Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:04 PM (#4989837)
Carroll just tweeted that he's going to TOR. Whoa
   2947. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:05 PM (#4989839)
Agents must have this stuff all worked out before today, right?
   2948. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:06 PM (#4989840)
K.C. Johnson ‏@KCJHoop 19m19 minutes ago
Here's more optimism for why Butler verbal agreement could come today: Bulls open to player option. Should be either 3/1 or 4/1 max.


---

☕netw3rk ‏@netw3rk 16m16 minutes ago
Splitter to the Hawks is like when you upgrade to a new phone and give your cousin your old one


Ha.

---

@DeMarreCarroll1: #WeThe North I will be playing for Raptors next year!!!! I'm Blessed for this Opportunity! https://instagram.com/p/4mXm3qmVAZ/


Woah. Scooped everyone!
   2949. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:06 PM (#4989841)
Sure seems that way. Would Spurs pull trigger otherwise on Splitter? I guess it could still end up in a Bosh/Rockets situation but I would think that means SA got LMA.
   2950. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:06 PM (#4989844)
4yr/$60mil for Carroll.
   2951. Norcan Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:08 PM (#4989846)
I guess it's possible Aldridge conveyed to the Spurs before their meeting that he'd sign with them if they came into their meeting with the necessary cap space in hand. That would at least mitigate the risk of losing Splitter for nothing. But I guess it's also possible the Spurs didn't want to come into their meeting with only promises of enough cap space. Maybe they're going all in.
   2952. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:08 PM (#4989848)
Danny Green must have given the Spurs a 2-3 million a year discount.
   2953. JJ1986 Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:08 PM (#4989849)
Tobias Harris to the Hawks would be a nice fit if they lose both their guys.
   2954. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:10 PM (#4989850)
I guess it's possible Aldridge conveyed to the Spurs before their meeting that he'd sign with them if they came into their meeting with the necessary cap space in hand. That would at least mitigate the risk of losing Splitter for nothing. But I guess it's also possible the Spurs didn't want to come into their meeting with only promises of enough cap space. Maybe they're going all in.

Bobby Marks ‏@BobbyMarks42 1m1 minute ago
Still some more work to do by SA but cap space is getting there. Need to figure out Tim and Manu. Big cap holds on the books right now.


Lowe spent a huge chuck of the article I linked in [2915] talking about LMA and the Spurs. I'm sure there was more than just conveyance of intentions here.
   2955. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:11 PM (#4989853)
Re: 2947

Yes. I found it humorous that SA according to some reports at the draft were not interested in trading Splitter. Lots of groundwork for all kinds of deals had already been done.
   2956. Norcan Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:12 PM (#4989854)
4yr/$60mil for Carroll.


That seems kind of a lot for a role player who may or may not be as good in Toronto's iso-heavy style offense.
   2957. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:12 PM (#4989855)
Danny Green must have given the Spurs a 2-3 million a year discount.

Tom Triller ‏@teamziller 34s34 seconds ago
Danny Green might have just left $30-40 million on the table.
   2958. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:14 PM (#4989857)
That seems kind of a lot for a role player who may or may not be as good in Toronto's iso-heavy style offense.

He's the Raps highest paid player now, per Lowe. Also, every single contract is going to seem like too much with the cap stuff.
   2959. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:15 PM (#4989859)
I can't handle NBA and NHL FA happening at the same time here.
   2960. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:16 PM (#4989861)
I obviously hope he fails miserably as a Raptor, but it's nice to see the Dawg get paid a little.
   2961. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:18 PM (#4989862)
Yeah. Wow, not my money. Good for Carroll but wow.
   2962. Norcan Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:18 PM (#4989863)
Danny Green must have given the Spurs a 2-3 million a year discount.


Ziller thinks Green could've gotten a deal worth 75 to 80 million? What in the world. Maybe he left 15 million based on the Carroll deal but that's it. Which isn't chump change if there was another team out there willing to give him that much.
   2963. aberg Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:19 PM (#4989865)
He's the Raps highest paid player now, per Lowe. Also, every single contract is going to seem like too much with the cap stuff.


Except Danny Green, who was paid fairly in 2014 dollars. Assuming health, that is going to be a hell of a contract.
   2964. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:21 PM (#4989870)
Fwiw I had heard that Green could possibly have gotten 15 a year. Signing for that number plus Splitter heading out seems to be pointing in one direction.
   2965. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:22 PM (#4989871)
Royce Young ‏@royceyoung 8m8 minutes ago
The Rockets, Pelicans and Knicks have interest in unrestricted free agent Kendrick Perkins, according to a source.


Why?

Zach Lowe ‏@ZachLowe_NBA 6m6 minutes ago
Some rival execs beginning to operate under assumption LMA to Spurs is happening. Dallas considered frontrunner for Wes Matthews.
   2966. Norcan Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:23 PM (#4989872)
Except Danny Green, who was paid fairly in 2014 dollars. Assuming health, that is going to be a hell of a contract.


Kawhi's going to look like an even bigger bargain with max salaries going over 30 million plus. To hell with the Spurs.
   2967. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:25 PM (#4989876)
I must say I am really surprised. I didn't think they could keep Green and get LMA. Not done yet but wow.
   2968. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:28 PM (#4989877)
Perk must be the modern day late career Oakley. I would never have guessed work as a bouncer paid like that but there it is.
   2969. King Mekong Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:28 PM (#4989878)
As long as they offloaded Splitter the cap gymnastics were never too difficult.
   2970. Booey Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:29 PM (#4989879)
edit: and two teams have offered 4 years/$80M for Milsap. I can't imagine what the contracts are going to look like after the cap goes up.


Much as I love Millsap, this just makes me hope even harder that the rumors of the Jazz trading Favors to pursue him are nothing but BS. Favors is already better than Millsap, significantly younger so the gap between them is sure to grow more with each passing year, and he's making much less than Millsap is going to make too. In fact, with the rising cap Favors' deal over the next few years is going to look like an absolute steal. Still preferring Millsap after all that would be batsh!t crazy.

Re: player size, somehow I missed this, but I was at a bbq this weekend and someone was telling me about the Twitter/Reddit theory that the reason LeBron and Carmelo both lost a ton of weight this offseason is that the league internally had a chat with some stars about getting off PEDs this past offseason. I.e. that it was the "I started taking yoga" effect.


Not that I put any stock into rumors like this, but if it were true I think that'd be the correct way to handle it. MLB taking such aggressive steps to demonize their stars and discredit their own sport is counterproductive and, well, flat out moronic IMO. Whenever the NBA is finally faced with a PED crisis (it's bound to happen eventually, right?), I hope it's met with the shrug that it deserves.
   2971. Squash Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:30 PM (#4989880)
Edit to add: Muscles as TFT mentions isn't the incentive, I agree. Lots of skinny pitchers were doing PEDS. Recovery is the ticket.

Yeah big muscles aren't the only thing, but it's not like there weren't tons (and tons) of baseball players who suddenly lost a bunch of weight after testing started. Hence my reference to the time-honored "I started taking yoga" story we would hear in the early 2000s when Player A would show up to camp suddenly 20 lbs. lighter.

According to an earlier Bill Simmons article the loophole players exploit in the NBA program is that you can only get randomly tested 3 times a season or something like that no matter how early in the season those three tests end up coming up (i.e. theoretically you could have your third test in December, and then have all of January-June when you know you aren't going to be tested no matter what), so guys wait until after their third test and then go crazy. He was mentioning that getting your blood replaced, whatever that consists of (presumably transfusions as in cycling), is also a big one.
   2972. Squash Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:33 PM (#4989882)
Not that I put any stock into rumors like this, but if it were true I think that'd be the correct way to handle it. MLB taking such aggressive steps to demonize their stars and discredit their own sport is counterproductive and, well, flat out moronic IMO. Whenever the NBA is finally faced with a PED crisis (it's bound to happen eventually, right?), I hope it's met with the shrug that it deserves.


That's sort of the tone of these stories - (apparently) Adam Silver decided that what happened in MLB (stars getting pulled off their thrones, media outrage, etc.) was not going to happen in the NBA, and decided to work with the players behind the scenes, start with the stars, who had the most to lose, and then trickle down to everyone else.
   2973. Booey Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:38 PM (#4989889)
every single contract is going to seem like too much with the cap stuff.

Really happy the Jazz were able to get multi year deals done with Hayward and Favors last year. I remember people (not just here) saying the Jazz overpaid for Hayward. With guys like Carroll now making almost as much, it's sure not looking that way anymore.
   2974. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:39 PM (#4989891)
EPO style stuff as well as other PEDS was the rumor. The way I saw it in MLB and also the NBA by not having an effective well defined policy in place they incentivized the behavior. And were therefore complicit whether they wanted to acknowledge that or not.

I agree that the NBA handled it right. Don't embarrass people or leak reports just "hey guys cut that #%^* out". Should have been more proactive but once they acted they handled it well.
   2975. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:42 PM (#4989896)
Hayward can get out early though. He is only in for two years which is going to hurt. The Millsap stuff was crazy though. No way that was happening.
   2976. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:48 PM (#4989901)
I obviously hope he fails miserably as a Raptor, but it's nice to see the Dawg get paid a little.


Yeah, good for him. I was hoping the Hawks could bring him back at a discount once he got injured, but I wish him well. I like the Splitter deal, the Hawks need a real big man. A Splitter/Horford/Millsap front line looks pretty good if they can bring PM back.
   2977. Booey Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:54 PM (#4989909)
Hayward can get out early though. He is only in for two years which is going to hurt.


Can he? I thought it was a full 4 years (3 years left) with no opt outs. Maybe I'm mis-remembering...
   2978. spivey Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:55 PM (#4989911)
Today is wild! Is this normal every year and I just don't remember?

So excited we were able to keep Danny Green.

Splitter is totally worth his contract (which was 4/36 a couple of years ago, IIRC), so I'm not surprised the Spurs were able to deal him.

But running out a Duncan, LMA, Leonard, Green, Parker/Mills/Joseph lineup should be quite nice and able to compete with Golden State. The big question mark is Parker and I think the Spurs have a lot of backup for him, and I think the Spurs are going to be less willing to let him single-handedly submarine their title hopes like he did last year.

I feel bad for Portland. Last year was their chance to really make a run at contention and maybe convince folks to stay in the process. Instead, they're getting gutted and will be a really bad team built around Lillard (who I like, but I don't think can carry a team).
   2979. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 01, 2015 at 12:57 PM (#4989916)
I don't get why Millsap is getting such a big contract. I like him lots, he's a good player, etc., but that's a LOT of money. Where's Orlando going with this? He's going to be 30. They must think Oladipo/Harris/Vucevic + Millsap/Hezonja will turn into something very, very quickly. I mean, it might, but that's a whole ton of money they're looking to throw at Millsap. Too much.

Looks like ATL's matching. That's a lot of money.
   2980. PJ Martinez Posted: July 01, 2015 at 01:00 PM (#4989918)
What's confusing to me is that Harris seems like a better fit for Orlando and Millsap seems like a better fit for Atlanta. Is there a cap angle I'm missing here? Something else?
   2981. aberg Posted: July 01, 2015 at 01:14 PM (#4989933)
I don't get why Millsap is getting such a big contract. I like him lots, he's a good player, etc., but that's a LOT of money. Where's Orlando going with this? He's going to be 30. They must think Oladipo/Harris/Vucevic + Millsap/Hezonja will turn into something very, very quickly. I mean, it might, but that's a whole ton of money they're looking to throw at Millsap. Too much.


The contract basically covers the rookie deals of most of Orlando's young guys, and they have to overpay to get FAs to come there right now. My guess is that they realize they're at a point where they have to see what they have with Oladipo, Payton, Vucevic, Gordon and see if that can become a competitive core.
   2982. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 01, 2015 at 01:26 PM (#4989948)
That makes total sense. Thanks, Berg.
   2983. J. Sosa Posted: July 01, 2015 at 01:33 PM (#4989953)
He has an opt out Booey I think. I think it was 3+1. IIRC Locke mentioned it as a potential concern.
   2984. smileyy Posted: July 01, 2015 at 01:58 PM (#4989990)
All the talk of Scottie Pippen, and the comparisons of DeAndre Jordan's offensive game to Kendrick Perkins made me randomly wonder:

Who would have a better offensive game right now: Kendrick Perkins or Michael Jordan?
   2985. JC in DC Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4989995)
Who would have a better offensive game right now: Kendrick Perkins or Michael Jordan?


It's a trick question: the answer is Marlin Perkins.
   2986. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:07 PM (#4990008)
If Atlanta matches on Millsap, that's a lot of money being spent on the frontcourt. Wonder what the SF plan is?
   2987. JC in DC Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:24 PM (#4990030)
Could a team like NY take on bad, but expiring contracts to fill their free agent space? IOW, could they add guys this year in trades [e.g., Expiring Contract A + something for taking off the other team's hand] and gun for next FA class? Or does the money have to add up?
   2988. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:26 PM (#4990034)
Knicks can take on salary dumps without sending back equal contracts as long as they remain under the cap with the new acquisitions.
   2989. aberg Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:33 PM (#4990041)
I would take MJ over Perkins right now because at least MJ could make an open jumper. It's the only useful offensive skill either would have, unless you count setting dirty, retaliatory screens as an offensive skill.
   2990. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:35 PM (#4990043)
Brian Windhorst ‏@WindhorstESPN 1m1 minute ago
Kevin Love will accept a five-year, $110 million contract extension with the Cavs according to sources
   2991. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:39 PM (#4990047)
Ajinca 4/20.2 to stay in NWO
Butler's 5/95, includes a p-opt after yr 4
Thompson gettin' paid to stay in CLE
--
2987: Yes, so long as they've cap space.
   2992. King Mekong Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:40 PM (#4990048)
Dan Gilbert is going to be paying some serious tax.
   2993. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:46 PM (#4990058)
The new owners in ATL say they're willing to pay tax. Still looking for a SF to replace Carroll.
   2994. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:47 PM (#4990061)
That's a little easier said then done. The strength of this FA class, in terms of lower tier players, is bigs. (imo)
   2995. Rally Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:47 PM (#4990062)
But running out a Duncan, LMA, Leonard, Green, Parker/Mills/Joseph lineup should be quite nice and able to compete with Golden State.


San Antonio can probably make that happen and remain 15 million under the salary cap. They seem to have the ability to bend the laws of economics the way hyperspeed travel bends the time and space continuum. We should elect Pop and RC Buford as President and Vice President with power to overrule congress in case of disagreement. We'd wind up with:

1. A budget surplus
2. Full universal healthcare, no premiums, no co-pay
3. A military so strong ISIS gives up
4. Social security beefed up so everyone can retire at 55
5. A 50% tax break
   2996. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:47 PM (#4990064)
Butler's 5/95, includes a p-opt after yr 4

Extremely happy with this.
   2997. aberg Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:47 PM (#4990065)
Funny that Ajinca got a pretty decent guarantee only a few days after he was being used as essentially a cautionary tale for Porzingis. I don't mind the AAV, but I don't think I'd give him 4 years with the # of Centers available.

Mid-season, I started to think that Love was going to leave CLE based on all the smoke around his relationship with Lebron and his continued flirtations with LA. I don't know if the injury had much of an effect, but I think the front-row seat to the Finals might have impacted him. I hope he recovers and continues to refine his game to fit with that lineup. I want to see it work.
   2998. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:53 PM (#4990074)
Bobby Marks ‏@BobbyMarks42 15m15 minutes ago
Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson salary in 2015-16 combined is close to PHI entire roster this season. Not critical of 76ers but wow.
   2999. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:53 PM (#4990075)
Going into the day, I'd've cited Ajinca as one of the likely better deals on the market. Foul prone as hell, but offers decent low post scoring and rim protection, as well as very good rebounding. Has been above average by most measures the last two years.

The closest parallel I see to Carroll (circa when the Hawks got him) on the market is Jae Crowder.

   3000. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:56 PM (#4990078)
Hey Millsap can play the 3 a bit. Is it possible for the Hawks to re-sign Millsap and someone like Crowder (who I am guessing gets at least $10M a year)?
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