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Thursday, August 06, 2020

OT - NBA Bubble Thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully none of them get caught leaving the bubble for strip club wings.

Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: August 06, 2020 at 06:04 PM | 3285 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bubbles, nba, off-topic

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   1. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: August 06, 2020 at 11:49 PM (#5968238)
But as the Sun-Times learned this week, even if Karnisovas didn’t like what he would have seen from Boylen he would likely be handcuffed from making a change. According to several sources, there is strong growing momentum that financial concerns the Reinsdorfs have about the 2020-21 NBA season will keep Boylen in his current seat, as well as most of the coaching staff. So that “players first’’ motto that Karnisovas and general manager Marc Eversley were touting several months ago? Well, money just pushed it aside and cut in the front of the line. A small slap in the face to several Bulls players, and definitely a large slap to a very vocal Bulls fan base.

Playing the strapped-for-cash card when the franchise is valued at $3.2 billion is a hard pill to swallow. Somewhat of a jagged one at that, considering Karnisovas seemed poised to move on from Boylen and several members of the staff his first month on the job in the wake of getting some negative feedback from key Bulls players. Karnisovas and Eversley were even in the process of using back channels to reach out to Philadelphia assistant coach Ime Udoka and Toronto assistant Adrian Griffin as possible replacements, according to multiple NBA scouts.

What changed? The fact that chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said in a July USA Today story his financial losses with the Bulls, White Sox and United Center were somewhere in the “nine figures’’ range obviously painted an ugly picture.


Joe Cowley, so grain of salt and all that - though he did claim it before it was only a matter of time until Karnisovas canned Boylen. Either way, it seems pretty clear what's going to happen here and #### you, Jerry.
   2. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 07, 2020 at 08:18 AM (#5968247)
The Bulls were not going to really compete. It does matter if he is more negative in developing players than the replacement would have been though.

But as a Timberwolves fan I know the pain of a bad coach. And bad players. And bad GM. And bad owner.
   3. puck Posted: August 07, 2020 at 10:10 AM (#5968254)
The Nuggets' top 3 wings in minutes are all hurt (Harris, Barton and Murray), so for the first time this season, Michael Porter has gotten 30+ minutes in all 3 bubble games. He has 94 points, 39 rebounds and 5 turnovers. Granted, he's not going to average 59% on 3pts over any length of time...but even if his D sucks, don't they have to play him?

OTOH, it's hard to hide the D of 3 guys on the floor.
   4. Booey Posted: August 07, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5968273)
Well, the league had to see this coming: with homecourt advantage no longer being a thing, the tank race for preferable playoff positioning is officially on. Jazz are resting 4 of their starters for today's game vs the Spurs. Mitchell, Conley, and O'Neale are sitting with mild/fake injuries, and they didn't even bother listing a phony excuse for Gobert: they're just saying "rest", cuz playing 4 games after 4 and a half months off is quite the workload. Ingles is also listed as injured but available, and I suspect he's getting cameo minutes only to keep his NBA best consecutive games streak alive.

I get it, though. The Jazz COULD bust their asses these last 4 games and possibly catch Denver at #3...but why bother when there's no difference anymore between #3 and #6, or #4 and #5? Might as well give their starters some rest and let the Rockets and Thunder pass them. I'd much rather take the Nuggets and Clippers route to the WCF rather than Rockets/Thunder and Lakers. Unless the Rockets work their way up to 3rd, finishing 6th is a better spot for Utah than 4th or 5th.
   5. tshipman Posted: August 07, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5968282)
I get it, though. The Jazz COULD bust their asses these last 4 games and possibly catch Denver at #3...but why bother when there's no difference anymore between #3 and #6, or #4 and #5? Might as well give their starters some rest and let the Rockets and Thunder pass them. I'd much rather take the Nuggets and Clippers route to the WCF rather than Rockets/Thunder and Lakers. Unless the Rockets work their way up to 3rd, finishing 6th is a better spot for Utah than 4th or 5th.


I feel like this kind of gamesmanship is more harmful than not.

It sends a message to your team that they aren't real contenders, and depend on getting lucky breaks to get through the seeding. To win a championship, the Jazz have to beat two teams better than the Rockets.

If your only goal is to make it out of the first round, what are you doing as a franchise?
   6. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 07, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5968290)
If your only goal is to make it out of the first round, what are you doing as a franchise?


Playing home games in Minnesota.
   7. Booey Posted: August 07, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5968293)
#5 - Agreed, but that's the position the player empowerment/superteam era has put the league in. Most teams -even most playoff teams - really don't have any shot at a championship. Winning a round or two is the best they can realistically hope for.

"Championship or bust" just isn't a realistic goal for the majority of franchises (and I'm not just talking about this season)
   8. tshipman Posted: August 07, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5968294)
The championship favorite are the Milwaukee Bucks. The team that won it all last year was the Toronto Raptors.

Neither of these were superteams created by player empowerment. These teams are in a position to succeed by setting a goal of winning a championship.
   9. Booey Posted: August 07, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5968305)
The Bucks happened to draft the best player in the NBA. The Raptors traded for a disgruntled superstar against his will and happened to catch lightning in a bottle during their one season with him before he bolted (and got lucky when their Finals opponent lost 2 all stars to injury). Neither of those are very duplicative paths to a championship.
   10. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 07, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5968314)
The Spurs are looking very Spurs-like again. I don't like it.
   11. tshipman Posted: August 07, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5968325)
The Bucks happened to draft the best player in the NBA. The Raptors traded for a disgruntled superstar against his will and happened to catch lightning in a bottle during their one season with him before he bolted (and got lucky when their Finals opponent lost 2 all stars to injury). Neither of those are very duplicative paths to a championship.


Drafting the best player in the NBA is in fact the most duplicated path to a championship.
   12. Booey Posted: August 07, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5968328)
#11 - Well yes, but it's not something a team can just consciously choose to do to improve.
   13. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5968331)
#11 - Well yes, but it's not something a team can just consciously choose to do to improve.

sam hinkie did for this.
   14. Booey Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:19 PM (#5968340)
#10 - Utah's starting lineup of Joe Ingles (only 17 minutes), Ed Davis, Emmanuel Mudiay, Miye Oni, and Georges Niang - plus having to play the likes of Juwan Morgan, Jarrell Brantley, Tony Bradley, and Rayjon Tucker 20+ minutes a piece - helped a bit.
   15. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 09:47 PM (#5968386)
The Raptors traded for a disgruntled superstar against his will and happened to catch lightning in a bottle during their one season with him before he bolted (and got lucky when their Finals opponent lost 2 all stars to injury).


And after that superstar bolted the Raptors fell all the way from 2 games behind the Bucks to .... 5 games behind the Bucks.

   16. Booey Posted: August 07, 2020 at 09:59 PM (#5968391)
#15 - Yes, the Raptors had a surprisingly good regular season, and I'd give Nick Nurse COTY for their efforts...but the playoffs are a whole different animal. With only a handful of exceptions in NBA history, teams with lots of good players but no MVP candidate just don't win championships. Obviously the team should say that repeating is their goal, but ultimately I suspect most Raptor fans would probably be content with their season if they "only" got to the ECF after losing Kawhi.

(Note: The Raptors won 59 games the season BEFORE Kawhi too. But then they got swept in the 2nd round. Regular season success isn't always the best way to measure the impact of superstars)
   17. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 10:35 AM (#5968440)
Samuel H. Quinn @SamQuinnCBS
Bol Bol can't move laterally like, at all, and it doesn't even matter because he basically blindfolds shooters on the rare occasions in which he needs to defend the perimeter.
pic.twitter.com/kQCIHOWzT2
   18. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5968468)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Philadelphia’s All-Star F Ben Simmons will undergo surgery to remove a loose body in his left knee, sources tell ESPN.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
While the Sixers haven't ruled Simmons out for the season, sources say it would take a deep run into the playoffs to keep the door open on the possibility of a return --- and that's still an iffy proposition. For now, the Sixers need to prepare for a postseason without Simmons.
   19. puck Posted: August 08, 2020 at 04:03 PM (#5968503)
Is this Michael Porter's "crash back to earth" game?
   20. Booey Posted: August 08, 2020 at 07:20 PM (#5968537)
Jazz starters miraculously healthy again. *Phew* (Not that it ended up mattering)
   21. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:02 PM (#5968547)
Is this Michael Porter's "crash back to earth" game?
Katy Winge @katywinge
Michael Porter Jr highlights for your viewing pleasure. Loved his growth this game: 2 pts in the first half, finished with 23.
pic.twitter.com/jrAR4oLuv0
   22. tshipman Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5968551)
You can't stop TJ Warren, you can only hope to contain him.
   23. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:40 PM (#5968553)
You can't stop TJ Warren, you can only hope to contain him.
zaza isn't walking through that door.
dellavadova isn't walking through that door.
bruce bowen isn't walking through that door.
the NYPD isn't walking through that door.
   24. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:40 PM (#5968554)
The Lakers are... kind of bad.
   25. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:48 PM (#5968555)
The Lakers are... kind of bad.
jr smith isn't walking through that door. errr....
   26. Booey Posted: August 08, 2020 at 09:49 PM (#5968560)
I'm a bit skeptical these seeding games are indicative of anything. A lot of teams seem to be treating them like preseason games.
   27. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5968598)
Nick Friedell @NickFriedell
The Suns are the hottest team in basketball — 5-0 in the bubble — and just a half game behind the Trail Blazers for the ninth spot in the West. Devin Booker believes his team has finally turned the corner.
espn.com/nba/story/_/id…
   28. tshipman Posted: August 09, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5968605)
The Suns in the last 5 games have gone 37% from 3, and their opponents have combined to shoot just 32% from 3.

In particular, the Suns have enjoyed a .194 shooting night from Dallas in a 2 point win, and a .276 shooting night from the Clippers.

Similarly, the Lakers have enjoyed a robust 21% shooting from 3p in their most recent 3 losses, with opponents shooting 39%.

***

In general, any NBA team looks great when they're out-shooting their opponents from 3.
   29. Booey Posted: August 09, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5968609)
That, and Phoenix actually has something to play for in these seeding games, while most other teams don't. I don't think it's a coincidence that several of the teams who have looked most impressive in the bubble so far (Suns, Spurs, Blazers) are those with their seasons on the line.

(I suppose you could use the Grizzlies and Pelicans as a counterpoint)
   30. PJ Martinez Posted: August 09, 2020 at 01:32 PM (#5968613)
I don't have a strong sense of how all the teams are treating the games, but, as 28 gets at, it's all small sample size theater, right? People are normally less inclined to make grand pronouncements based on five-game stretches, but these five games have this very large and very unusual spotlight on them. Whether or not they should be further discounted (and they probably should, a bit, since some of the seeding is already settled — plus "home court" means less than it ever has, weakening the incentive to jockey for position among some of the teams), it's just five games.
   31. tshipman Posted: August 09, 2020 at 02:52 PM (#5968630)
I don't have a strong sense of how all the teams are treating the games, but, as 28 gets at, it's all small sample size theater, right? People are normally less inclined to make grand pronouncements based on five-game stretches, but these five games have this very large and very unusual spotlight on them. Whether or not they should be further discounted (and they probably should, a bit, since some of the seeding is already settled — plus "home court" means less than it ever has, weakening the incentive to jockey for position among some of the teams), it's just five games.


Well, to be clear, there probably are real things we can take away from the first five games. I just don't think that good or bad 3p variance should drive those conclusions.

Turnovers appear up slightly, about one per game, which could be a result of teams playing sloppier after a layoff, or could be a result of more pressure.
Despite the turnovers, offense is slightly up, which gives at least some credence to the claims that teams would find it easier to play without fans.
Fouls are way up, which I don't know that anyone predicted, and would be interesting to see if it continues.

In particular, the foul thing is of interest because most people tend to believe that the home court advantage is a result of the road team being called for more fouls, but this might demonstrate that it's actually a product of the home team being called for *fewer* fouls.
   32. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5968655)
Eric Koreen @ekoreen
Nick Nurse steps on to his zoom singing “Free Fallin’” by Tom Petty and then asks @Rachel__Nichols how often she watches The Jump after it’s done.
   33. SteveF Posted: August 09, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5968667)
One suggestion I heard about the fouls was the lack of crowd noise drowning out/muting the sounds of physical contact. Refs are hearing contact in ways they aren't used to and it is influencing their foul calls.
   34. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5968670)
oh for ##### sake with this
Marc J. Spears @MarcJSpears
Sixers center Joel Embiid has left the bench. Appeared to have hurt bus left foot. Sixers GM Elton Brand went to check on him. pic.twitter.com/QHgsCqKEkJ
   35. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:04 PM (#5968671)
sixers lineup right now:

burks
robinson
korkmas
pelle
   36. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:31 PM (#5968674)
Just a question. Is it remotely plausible that Phil ownership shuts down Embiid, fires the coach once the playoffs end and starts fresh for next season?

   37. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:32 PM (#5968675)
Just a question. Is it remotely plausible that Phil ownership shuts down Embiid, fires the coach once the playoffs end and starts fresh for next season?

i have literally no idea what those people are capable of.
   38. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:33 PM (#5968676)
Left ankle injury for Embiid. No idea how serious,
   39. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5968677)
37--So you think that's a bad idea? FWIW I think that is what Philadelphia should do.
   40. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:40 PM (#5968678)
37--So you think that's a bad idea? FWIW I think that is what Philadelphia should do.

if embiid is healthy, he should play.
if he's injured, he shouldn't.

do i trust the sixers medical staff to make that determination? ...uh....ugh.


do i think brett brown should be fired? i have repeatedly said that i would not agitate for that outcome on account of the fact that brown has held this organization together with rubber bands and gum over the last 5 years, but...i also don't think he has the answers to any of the sixers issues at this point.
   41. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 08:56 PM (#5968691)
clutch loss.
   42. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 09:10 PM (#5968698)
so anyway, i just had a thought about brett brown.

among the reasons why sam hinkie originally hired brown:
-- bulletproof intangibles
-- relentless positivity
-- background in player development
-- the ability to implement analytics-approved game strategies


now, i'm sure the sixers still have an analytics staff (even after hinkie got snake in the grassed by the collangelli), but "analytics" hasn't been the organization's driving philosophy since hinkie was GM, and so that aspect of brown's coaching acumen has been wasted. now, brown isn't an "analytics" guy like spoelstra or malone, but he was (originally) effecting at implementing those philosophies when he was working with a front office that prioritized them.
   43. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 09:10 PM (#5968699)
   41. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 08:56 PM (#5968691)
clutch loss.
no, i do not come from the future; i just know what losers look like.
   44. jmurph Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5968777)
Lot of jokes online about SVG auditioning for the Sixers job during the broadcast the other night. Although I imagine the Pelicans job is going to look pretty appealing, too.
   45. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:37 AM (#5968778)
Lot of jokes online about SVG auditioning for the Sixers job during the broadcast the other night. Although I imagine the Pelicans job is going to look pretty appealing, too.
i like stan, but he's not a top tier coach (anymore?). let him go to sacramento or detroit or charlotte.

the path forward for the sixers is...going to be crushed by the salary cap. the little room to maneuver the sixers may have had this summer was wiped out by the rona, and the future is as depressing as 2020. horforf and harris have two of the worst contracts the NBA has seen this decade, and simmons will get a 20MM per year raise next year. it's not over, but too many opportunities were missed; too many assets were wasted; the iceberg has melted; it's over.


if i was able to recommend someone the sixers could hire to replace brett brown this summer...i would recommend john validation. #### it, cut em up.
   46. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5968783)
horforf and harris have two of the worst contracts the NBA has seen this decade

tharris: 5/180
horford: 4/110
marvin williams: 4/50
tristian thompson: 5/82
tyler johnson: 4/50
evan turner: 4/70
   47. spivey Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5968791)
It is weird to me that Philly chose Horford and Harris over Jimmy Butler.

Edit: I feel like multiple teams were willing to give Horford this kind of deal though, right? I remember thinking it was risky for his age, but I don't remember anyone really panning it at the time. Harris I think was acknowledged as one of those huge overpays that happens when that kind of FA comes up and it's basically them or a MLE player for that slot for the next few years. I'm sure good teams are planning out cap space a couple of years down the line for stuff like this, but given the player power and movement (a good thing), I don't think you can ever completely avoid it.
   48. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5968802)
It is weird to me that Philly chose Horford and Harris over Jimmy Butler.
it's weird to everyone. my first inclination was to think that ben simmons gave the sixers an ultimatum ("i'm not signing an extension if you reup butler"), but it doesn't seem like that's the case. i think it may just have been that elton brand didn't like his personality.
I feel like multiple teams were willing to give Horford this kind of deal though, right?
he may have been "worth it", but i think every fanbase sighed with relief when their team wasn't the one that got larded with this contract.
Harris I think was acknowledged as one of those huge overpays that happens when that kind of FA comes up and it's basically them or a MLE player for that slot for the next few years
this is not a contract that good organizations offer. especially not after this role player disappeared completely in the playoffs. at least harrison barnes hit a few shots in the finals for his money.
given the player power and movement (a good thing), I don't think you can ever completely avoid it.
there is a very easy way to avoid terrible contracts: don't offer them.

how much worse would the sixers have been this season if they had willie cauley stein and thad young (both playing out of position, btw) instead of horford and tharris?
   49. jmurph Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5968809)
I've long been on the side of letting the sub max talent guys walk instead of paying them huge money, but "protect the asset" thinking continues to rule the day.

There are obviously a lot of arguments on the other side: the Raptors turned DeRozan into Kawhi, afterall.

EDIT: The Heat are another example. Terrible extension after terrible extension which they were ultimately able to kind of turn into Butler (their moves were still dumb, but it worked out).
   50. jmurph Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5968811)
To me the initial trade for Harris deserves at least as much criticism. They went in heavy on a guy that three other teams saw a lot of and were more than happy to move on from.
   51. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5968812)
To me the initial trade for Harris deserves at least as much criticism. They went in heavy on a guy that three other teams saw a lot of and were more than happy to move on from.
i don't disagree.

i believe my initial reaction to the tharris trade was something along the lines of 'not happy; we'll see.'

if the sixers had gotten lou williams or pat beverley out of that deal, i would have been significantly more receptive to it.
   52. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5968813)
looking with optimism at potential paths forward:

i think you keep simmons and embiid. you keep thybulle and richardson. you resign burks. there's no reason to move scott or milton.

maybe the sixers could swing something like a horford for gary harris trade. for DEN, horford replaces milsap and plumlee, and getting rid of harris opens up playing time for MPJ.

that just leaves tharris, a bunch of draft picks, a bunch of empty bench spots and no money whatsoever.


simmons - gharris - richardson - tharris - embiid

bench G: milton, burks
bench W: thybulle
bench F: scott, pelle



that's a ####### disgrace, but i find it hard to envision anything remotely better.
   53. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5968827)
the simmons/butler/embiid core had the talent, drive and ambition to win an NBA championship. the sixers ###### that up and it is unforgivable.
   54. spivey Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5968838)
I'm sympathetic to the idea of not just giving out max deals just to do it, but Embiid, Butler/Horford, and Simmons all had maxes starting and running about the same length. There wasn't really going to be another large contract space come up for several years. It kind of was now or never.
   55. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5968844)
5064. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: June 30, 2019 at 08:24 PM (#5857471)
three things:
1: at least reddick is gone. NOP is actually pretty good landing spot for him.
2: that harris contract is beyond a mozgov level disaster.**
3: anyone who gave me #### about A: wanting to sign thad young instead of harris, and B: thinking thad young was worth 10-15MM per year, needs to lick my ####### toes.


** the problem with harris is really just that he's not a good defender. he's okay, and he's versatile, but he can't shut down a spencer dinwiddie or a gordan shunmgharf, to say nothing of a kemba or a kawhi or a giannis. for 180MM, you need to be a harden/okafor level scorer, a CP3/jokic level playmaker, or a butler/george level two-way contributor. harris isn't A or B or C, so you can't ####### pay him 35 ####### million ####### dollars per ####### annum./
   56. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5968846)
otoh:

5092. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: June 30, 2019 at 09:13 PM (#5857504)
sixers starting lineup:

simmons - 6'11
richardson - 6'6
harris - 6'9
horford - 6'10
embiid - 7'2


i....don't hate it.
otooh:
5098. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: June 30, 2019 at 09:21 PM (#5857510)
i just can't back giving tobias harris that kind of money.

do the other stuff, but give me bogdonavic or ross or lamb or barnes or jeff ####### green instead of harris for 30+ ####### million ####### dollars.
   57. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: August 10, 2020 at 03:55 PM (#5968877)
5064. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: June 30, 2019 at 08:24 PM (#5857471)
three things:
1: at least reddick is gone. NOP is actually pretty good landing spot for him.
2: that harris contract is beyond a mozgov level disaster.**
3: anyone who gave me #### about A: wanting to sign thad young instead of harris, and B: thinking thad young was worth 10-15MM per year, needs to lick my ####### toes.


** the problem with harris is really just that he's not a good defender. he's okay, and he's versatile, but he can't shut down a spencer dinwiddie or a gordan shunmgharf, to say nothing of a kemba or a kawhi or a giannis. for 180MM, you need to be a harden/okafor level scorer, a CP3/jokic level playmaker, or a butler/george level two-way contributor. harris isn't A or B or C, so you can't ####### pay him 35 ####### million ####### dollars per ####### annum./

Don't ever change.
   58. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5968881)
Don't ever change.
i did not even realize that was there.
   59. spivey Posted: August 10, 2020 at 05:42 PM (#5968895)
To me the initial trade for Harris deserves at least as much criticism. They went in heavy on a guy that three other teams saw a lot of and were more than happy to move on from.


They're one in the same. You don't make that trade unless you're planning to max him and run with a big 4.
   60. tshipman Posted: August 10, 2020 at 06:19 PM (#5968908)
I'd have to check the thread to see if I was critical of that move at the time, but at least from this vantage point, to me the problem with those trades are that they reflect a misunderstanding of the Sixers' position.

The Sixers seem to have regarded Embiid + Simmons as a championship core. I think that is wrong. Those guys both could be part of a championship core, but probably not on the same team. I think that filling pieces around them before they really understood their offensive identity was a mistake.
   61. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:01 PM (#5968935)
They're one in the same. You don't make that trade unless you're planning to max him and run with a big 4.
this isn't my read on what happened.

i think they made the tharris trade because they'd already decided to move on from jimmy butler, and then, because they didn't want to be left with nothing after the last offseason where they were ever going to have cap room, they moved for tharris to save face.

The Sixers seem to have regarded Embiid + Simmons as a championship core. I think that is wrong. Those guys both could be part of a championship core, but probably not on the same team. I think that filling pieces around them before they really understood their offensive identity was a mistake.

i think they were 90+% of the way there with simmons/butler/embiid. they needed to upgrade at backup center (demarcus cousins? willie cauley stein? nerlens noel? dakari johnson?) for the 15 minutes per playoff game where embiid was off the floor. they needed to upgrade their backup PG, so they could put a microwave scorer on the floor when things stagnated (derrick rose? trey burke? shabazz napier? alec burks?). they needed to upgrade jj redick (mattisse thybulle was a damn good get). they needed a PF who had a pulse (bobby portis, julius randle, noah vonley, thad young, marvin williams).


with jimmy butler and without horford/tharris, the sixers could plausibly have had something that looks like this:

starters:
beverley / butler / simmons / cousins* / embiid

bench:
tyreke (pre-crack cocaine suspension) / thybulle / ennis / scott / thad


* of course, DMC was out all year, so thad young would have wound up starting at PF, and backup center would have been another adventure, but i believe this team would have been a legitimate championship contender


also, while i'm aware that my team would have been a black hole for team chemistry, at the very least, embiid ####### adores both cousins and butler, and the love is mutual.
   62. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5968947)
Look at Kawhi Leonard going all "Hollywood" in this ad for the Honey app.
   63. JJ1986 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:50 PM (#5968949)
Based on nothing, Harris seems like a guy who will take a 42 win team to 47 wins, but definitely won't take a 52 win team to 57 wins.
   64. JJ1986 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:52 PM (#5968950)
I think Simmons/Embiid could be like your #2 and #3 guys on a championship team, but you need two starters who are better on offense, both a halfcourt ballhandler and a real off-ball 3-point threat.
   65. tshipman Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:55 PM (#5968951)
i think they were 90+% of the way there with simmons/butler/embiid. they needed to upgrade at backup center (demarcus cousins? willie cauley stein? nerlens noel? dakari johnson?) for the 15 minutes per playoff game where embiid was off the floor. they needed to upgrade their backup PG, so they could put a microwave scorer on the floor when things stagnated (derrick rose? trey burke? shabazz napier? alec burks?). they needed to upgrade jj redick (mattisse thybulle was a damn good get). they needed a PF who had a pulse (bobby portis, julius randle, noah vonley, thad young, marvin williams).


Embiid + Simmons lineups this year: +0.8 points per 100 (Embiid +4.9 overall, so worse than Embiid's average)
Embiid + Simmons lineups last year: +7.8 points per 100. (Embiid lineups +10.4 overall)

I think that this problem is sort of persistent, even as Simmons has improved. The problem is that it's impossible to get fair value for Simmons.
   66. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:43 PM (#5968958)
Embiid + Simmons lineups this year: +0.8 points per 100 (Embiid +4.9 overall, so worse than Embiid's average)
Embiid + Simmons lineups last year: +7.8 points per 100. (Embiid lineups +10.4 overall)

I think that this problem is sort of persistent, even as Simmons has improved
i can't argue against that, but my gut feeling is that there are circumstances where those trends would not persist, and i don't think the sixers have done a good job of searching them out.

the 4 biggest swings the organization has taken since putting together simmons and embiid all failed:
fultz
butler
tharris
horford

the reasons why each of those swings failed are varied, but in general 3 of the 4 played like warmed over ####, and the 4th, a guy who played his ass off when he was here, couldn't make nice nice with whoever needed him to.
The problem is that it's impossible to get fair value for Simmons
fair value isn't a huge issue when you're making a trade for stylistic purposes. but even then, you still run into the issue of tharris and horford, and that appeared to be intractable even before covid blew a hole in next year's salary cap. and so now, i have no idea how you can make a simmons trade work stylistically.
   67. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:59 PM (#5968962)
“fair value isn't a huge issue when you're making a trade for stylistic purposes”
It isn’t?

In any case, I’m (sincerely) sorry that your org has squandered its advantages in the way it has. The process more or less worked (yes there were missteps, but it allowed for that), but Colangelo and Brand have been subpar.
—-
Paul George’s GF called Damian Lillard’s sister a cow.
   68. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:09 PM (#5968964)
“fair value isn't a huge issue when you're making a trade for stylistic purposes”
It isn’t?

ORL didn't get fair value for dwight howard, and they were the only team that wound up winning that deal.
IND didn't get fair value for paul george, and they also won that deal.

so, i guess that's two (2) times where fair value didn't matter.
In any case, I’m (sincerely) sorry that your org has squandered its advantages in the way it has. The process more or less worked (yes there were missteps, but it allowed for that), but Colangelo and Brand have been subpar.

even after everything that went wrong, they managed to get it right by getting butler. and then they ###### that up beyond repair.

it really only just dawned on me recently, that there's no gas left in the tank. the money is gone; our recent draft picks are up in flames; the stash of future draft picks has been raided. there's no pivot anymore. this just is what it is now. it ####### sucks.
   69. SteveF Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:19 PM (#5968968)
They've permanently crossed over from 'Hinkie died for this!' to 'Hinkie died for this?'
   70. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:22 PM (#5968969)
They've permanently crossed over from 'Hinkie died for this!' to 'Hinkie died for this?'
so many shitty MFers. too many, in fact.
   71. puck Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:26 PM (#5968970)
This Lakers-Nuggets game has been garbage time for most of the 4th Q. Mason Plumlee is guarding Lebron, Bol has been in awhile.
   72. PJ Martinez Posted: August 11, 2020 at 07:59 AM (#5968987)
If you're the Sixers and the Nuggets came to you this summer and offered Murray and MPJ for Simmons and Zhaire Smith, what do you say?
   73. jmurph Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:42 AM (#5968994)
Words I never thought I'd type: stiggles is being too pessimistic about the Sixers. They need to make moves, sure, but they have two guys that are miles better than the best two guys on most other teams. I have no idea what those moves are, admittedly (I don't think eschewing actual perimeter players in the modern NBA was ideal, so maybe start there?). They probably need a different GM. They almost certainly need a different coach (how are they not way better defensively? 7th in DRtg when you're all in on defense doesn't cut it). But they're still likely going to enter next season in the top 4 of the conference with two young stars. It's way too early for this kind of pessimism.
   74. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM (#5969016)
If you're the Sixers and the Nuggets came to you this summer and offered Murray and MPJ for Simmons and Zhaire Smith, what do you say?
i assume zhaire smith is just in there to twist the ####### knife, right.

also: no. i'd much rather target a lesser gary harris or will barton or malik beasley or torrey craig or monte morris, rather than go all in to do something that can't be undone.
Words I never thought I'd type: stiggles is being too pessimistic about the Sixers. They need to make moves, sure, but they have two guys that are miles better than the best two guys on most other teams. I have no idea what those moves are, admittedly (I don't think eschewing actual perimeter players in the modern NBA was ideal, so maybe start there?). They probably need a different GM. They almost certainly need a different coach (how are they not way better defensively? 7th in DRtg when you're all in on defense doesn't cut it). But they're still likely going to enter next season in the top 4 of the conference with two young stars. It's way too early for this kind of pessimism.

it's very hard to win an NBA title, and so while it's true that the sixers have two of the top 20-ish players in the NBA right now, just about everything else is a mess. they're not more talented than the top 5 teams in the NBA, and they're less cohesive, so where are they getting an edge? it's just not there.

with butler, they had the talent and the edge they needed to win a title. without butler, they lost both.
   75. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: August 11, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5969018)
so many shitty MFers. too many, in fact.
   76. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:03 AM (#5969021)
All the things stiggles has been saying are true for this iteration of the roster. But while complaining about management squandering assets is totally warranted, the idea that they have no hope is silly. Some combination of the following could brighten their outlook considerably, and while any path to "bonafide contender" is an extremely long shot, well, that's the NBA for you:
- Horford rediscovers his 3pt touch and builds a bit of chemistry with Embiid in a high-low two man game, partially recouping his value to/fit with the team
- The Sixers hit on one or two non-lottery picks or undrafted guys, along the lines of Gilbert Arenas (31), Draymond Green (35), Gary Trent (37), Monta Ellis (40), Michael Redd (43), Danny Green (46), Kyle Korver (51), Manu Ginobli (57), Isaiah Thomas (60), Kendrick Nunn (undrafted), Wesley Matthews (undrafted), or Jeremy Lin (undrafted)
- The Sixers find a trade partner for one of their bad contracts. Given the lack of ancillary assets, this would more or less have to be for a better-fitting terrible contract, though.
   77. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5969027)
- The Sixers hit on one or two non-lottery picks or undrafted guys, along the lines of Gilbert Arenas (31), Draymond Green (35), Gary Trent (37), Monta Ellis (40), Michael Redd (43), Danny Green (46), Kyle Korver (51), Manu Ginobli (57), Isaiah Thomas (60), Kendrick Nunn (undrafted), Wesley Matthews (undrafted), or Jeremy Lin (undrafted)
2nd round picks aren't worthless when they're used as a supplement to cap space, 1st round picks, trades; but when hitting on those picks becomes plan A, that's a horrible sign for the future.
- The Sixers find a trade partner for one of their bad contracts. Given the lack of ancillary assets, this would more or less have to be for a better-fitting terrible contract, though.
what does that even look like right now?

just for some comparison:

tharris:
2021: 33MM
2022: 36MM
2023: 38MM
2024: 41MM

hbarnes:
2021: 24MM
2022: 22MM
2023: 20MM
2024: 18MM

wiggins:
2021: 29MM
2022: 31MM
2023: 33MM

dangelo:
2021: 27MM
2022: 29MM
2023: 30MM
2024: 31MM

klove:
2021: 31MM
2022: 31MM
2023: 29MM


this is not just a terrible contract; it is a magnitude beyond all other terrible contracts.
- Horford rediscovers his 3pt touch and builds a bit of chemistry with Embiid in a high-low two man game, partially recouping his value to/fit with the team

even if his 3P touch comes back, his body is still breaking down. once that lateral quickness goes, it's not pretty.
   78. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:33 AM (#5969030)
You keep pointing blame at the Sixers for not keeping Butler; did he really want to stay?
   79. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:45 AM (#5969032)
You keep pointing blame at the Sixers for not keeping Butler; did he really want to stay?
does this look like someone who wants to leave?

there was pure, unbridled joy on jimmy butler's face when he was around embiid. that's not a situation that people flee. especially not after all the drama he went through in MIN.


now i'm not gonna argue that he didn't need (or want) further convincing, but this is a situation where the guy left because he was unwanted.
   80. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5969034)
i'm not gonna say i was overly excited to give jimmy butler 180MM through age 34, but that embiid/simmons/butler core was championship caliber. a competent organization does what it takes to make that work. draymond green isn't easy to work with; rodman wasn't easy to work with; world peace wasn't easy to work with; great organizations make it work for them. this organization pissed all over itself and went looking for its blankie to cry in.
   81. DCA Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5969040)
#77:

I'm not sure the Harris contract is worse than those (except Barnes, which is much cheaper). He's more expensive than most of those guys, but he's enough better that the additional cost may be worth it on the margin.

So cross off Barnes, D'Angelo (Wolfs got him for KAT, he's staying unless Towns is out), and Wiggins (fits the Dubs better).

Cleveland would take Harris for Love. Pistons would take Harris for Blake. But those are old broken down guys who just save the Sixers some money a few years down the line when their championship window may well be closed. Harris can at least get on the court.

How many future firsts would it take to get Chris Paul? Thunder have amassed Hinkie-level draft capital while staying in the playoff picture.
   82. giannis Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5969042)
My brother claims that the Nuggets are trying to lose on purpose to fall to the 4-seed, and thereby set up a second round match-up against the struggling Lakers (rather than the Clippers), and this is why they've benched Jokic in the 4th quarter of their last two close losses.

1) do you think that's what's happening?
2) *should* they be doing it? not, like, ethically. but strategically. do they have a better shot of beating the Lakers than they do of beating the Clippers?
   83. jmurph Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5969043)
Cleveland would take Harris for Love.

I don't know, Cleveland acted this year like they sincerely believe Love is an asset on his current deal.

How many future firsts would it take to get Chris Paul?

Morey may have made the worst trade in recent league history. It's really unbelievable.
   84. DCA Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5969044)
This could probably rid you of Harris

PG Rozier
SG Richardson
SF Thybulle
PF Simmons
C Embiid

might be good actually, and you only have to carry Batum for one year
   85. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5969045)
Morey may have made the worst trade in recent league history. It's really unbelievable.

bynum
fultz
tharris
   86. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5969047)
This could probably rid you of Harris

PG Rozier
SG Richardson
SF Thybulle
PF Simmons
C Embiid

might be good actually, and you only have to carry Batum for one year
yeah, sure. in.
   87. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5969049)
when hitting on [second-round] picks becomes plan A, that's a horrible sign for the future.
My point was not that mining non-elite prospects was a good plan A, my point was that the Sixers maintain more upside risk than you're letting on. And if the last decade has taught us anything, it's that there is no such thing as an untradeable contract, although it may take a few rounds of asset flipping to make a given #### into shineola.
   88. tshipman Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5969052)
My brother claims that the Nuggets are trying to lose on purpose to fall to the 4-seed, and thereby set up a second round match-up against the struggling Lakers (rather than the Clippers), and this is why they've benched Jokic in the 4th quarter of their last two close losses.

1) do you think that's what's happening?
2) *should* they be doing it? not, like, ethically. but strategically. do they have a better shot of beating the Lakers than they do of beating the Clippers?


1. No. They might be tanking because they want the Thunder instead of the Jazz in the first round.
2. No, that would be stupid. The Nuggets don't have anyone who can guard LeBron or Anthony Davis. It's frankly questionable if the Nuggets would even be favored in a matchup against the 5 seeded OKC Thunder. I can't imagine purposefully tanking so you can get LeBron in the second.
   89. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:04 PM (#5969054)
My point was not that mining non-elite prospects was a good plan A, my point was that the Sixers maintain more upside risk than you're letting on. And if the last decade has taught us anything, it's that there is no such thing as an untradeable contract, although it may take a few rounds of asset flipping to make a given #### into shineola.
it's hard to go from "we have unlimited maneuverability and we get to build around two of the best young players in the world" to "we've ###### it all up 6 ways from sunday, and now we need this pea shoot to save us".


   90. tshipman Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5969055)
I mean, the big variable is what the Sixers could get for Embiid or Simmons. That's what still gives you a chance to be a real contender.
   91. jmurph Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5969056)
1. No. They might be tanking because they want the Thunder instead of the Jazz in the first round.
2. No, that would be stupid. The Nuggets don't have anyone who can guard LeBron or Anthony Davis. It's frankly questionable if the Nuggets would even be favored in a matchup against the 5 seeded OKC Thunder. I can't imagine purposefully tanking so you can get LeBron in the second.

I think you (tship) are lower on the Clippers than many others, if I'm remembering correctly, but I think I'd still agree with this. In addition to the points you highlight, the Lakers also have more bodies to neutralize Jokic than do the Clippers.
   92. jmurph Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5969058)
Also I think it's broadly a terrible idea to tank to position for a 2nd round matchup that might never happen.
   93. tshipman Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5969059)
Also I think it's broadly a terrible idea to tank to position for a 2nd round matchup that might never happen.


Yeah, this is where I'm coming from. It's not so much that it's crazy to prefer facing the Lakers vs. the Clippers, it's that the Nuggets aren't the quality of team that should be worrying about second round matchups.
   94. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5969060)
I mean, the big variable is what the Sixers could get for Embiid or Simmons. That's what still gives you a chance to be a real contender.

trading one of your all-stars (who are still in their mid-20s, btw) isn't a "chance", it's a desperation heave.
   95. puck Posted: August 11, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5969066)
Also I think it's broadly a terrible idea to tank to position for a 2nd round matchup that might never happen.


I know very little but agree fwiw. They should worry about getting out of the first round. Murray finally played; they have been missing their top 3 wings in minutes.

I am also not sure they are tanking, they did play everyone big minutes vs Portland. I think that clinched the division so maybe that's what led to the minutes in the Lakers game...they went back to resting players.
   96. Fourth True Outcome Posted: August 11, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5969075)
trading one of your all-stars (who are still in their mid-20s, btw) isn't a "chance", it's a desperation heave.

It's also the fastest route to a coherent, good roster, isn't it? I still think it may be that Simmons and Embiid are better apart than together. What would you need from trading Simmons to play Embiid surrounded by shooters? What would you need from trading Embiid to have the pieces to play Simmons like Giannis? Obviously there are lots of ways to #### up such a trade, but leaning into being a team that is one of the two stars surrounded by good defense and shooting isn't necessarily a bad idea. Slow it down with Embiid or run-and-gun with Simmons, whichever you prefer.
   97. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: August 11, 2020 at 03:16 PM (#5969083)
Should Bucks fans be concerned?
   98. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5969087)
It's also the fastest route to a coherent, good roster, isn't it?
if you get it right, maybe. if you get it wrong, you're basically the cousins era kings, or the towns era wolfs.
I still think it may be that Simmons and Embiid are better apart than together.
i can't argue against that, but i don't think it's a proven fact.
What would you need from trading Simmons to play Embiid surrounded by shooters? What would you need from trading Embiid to have the pieces to play Simmons like Giannis?
simmons isn't giannis. giannis is scoring 30PPG this year, and that's never going to be simmons' game.
surrounding embiid with shooters might be more viable, but then you get back into relying on embiid to be great and healthy and motivated, and i'm not very confident about that being a viable path, either.
Obviously there are lots of ways to #### up such a trade, but leaning into being a team that is one of the two stars surrounded by good defense and shooting isn't necessarily a bad idea. Slow it down with Embiid or run-and-gun with Simmons, whichever you prefer.
neither of those teams is a title contender, and both of them are closer to purgatory than contention.


again, the sixers had a contention caliber core with embiid/simmons/butler, and now, just one year, we're talking about rebuilding without 2 of those 3. that's a colossal ####### failure.
   99. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: August 11, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5969088)
Should Bucks fans be concerned?
Maybe, but only cautiously so: between the small sample size and the fact that the Bucks have locked down the top seed, I don't trust the signal of the last few games as much as the (regular) regular season.
   100. tshipman Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5969090)
Should Bucks fans be concerned?


I'm going to go against the grain a bit and say yes.

Pre ASB, the Bucks were at a historic +12.1 scoring margin.
Post-ASB, the Bucks have 17 games, and are at a just +4.8 scoring margin.

That difference has largely been driven by shooting. Before the ASB, the Bucks shot 36% on 3s. Post ASB (including the bubble), they've shot just 32%. The Bucks have a lot of poor 3p shooters taking volume shots, and a lot of guys who shot over their heads in the first half.

Bucks opponents have actually shot worse in their recent slide (34 to 35%), but have upped their takes by 3 per game. The Bucks now allow the most 3pa in the NBA by a significant margin. Their rim protection has also broken down a bit: they're allowing 48% on 2pers, down from 45%.
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