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Thursday, August 06, 2020

OT - NBA Bubble Thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully none of them get caught leaving the bubble for strip club wings.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: August 06, 2020 at 06:04 PM | 4089 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bubbles, nba, off-topic

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   3101. puck Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5979244)
You maybe don't want Smart shooting the most 3's of anyone in the game. Has he made once since the 1st Q? I thought he had 4 in the 1st.
   3102. Booey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5979245)
Flip
   3103. SteveF Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:42 PM (#5979246)
Smart has taken 19 shots! NINETEEN!
   3104. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5979247)
BAM!
   3105. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5979248)
This game would be insane with fans.
   3106. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:46 PM (#5979249)
Bam already gets a superstar whistle. But he is really good.
   3107. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5979250)
Smart has taken 19 shots! NINETEEN!
He seems to have forgotten why he's useful.
   3108. Tin Angel Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:52 PM (#5979252)
Miami is going to be good for a while.
   3109. puck Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:54 PM (#5979253)
Herro is at -5.

Edit: my browser LIED. I didn't think that was possible given he's been on the floor during this run.
   3110. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:54 PM (#5979254)
I’m taking Bam over Jokic.
   3111. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:54 PM (#5979255)
somebody get marcus smart a wheelchair; i think he shat himself.
   3112. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:55 PM (#5979256)
Herro was absolute garbage until it was like 96-90. He picked a good time to pick it up.
   3113. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5979257)
He seems to have forgotten why he's useful.
he is what i expected what i expected dion waiters to be.
   3114. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5979258)
I seriously can’t believe that Miami is going to the finals.
   3115. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5979259)
Herro was absolute garbage until it was like 96-90. He picked a good time to pick it up.
it was a great adjustment by erik spoelstra.
   3116. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5979260)
The roof has caved in.
   3117. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:57 PM (#5979261)
Boston just falling apart right now.
   3118. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:57 PM (#5979262)
The announcers have mentioned a couple of times that Iggy will be in his sixth straight final if/when Miami wins. After the Russell Celtics, how many players have done this?
   3119. tshipman Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:58 PM (#5979263)
All the early shooting turns out to have been fool's gold.
   3120. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:58 PM (#5979264)
538 has Boston at 20% to win the finals.
   3121. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2020 at 09:59 PM (#5979265)
The announcers have mentioned a couple of times that Iggy will be in his sixth straight final if/when Miami wins. After the Russell Celtics, how many players have done this?
uh...
3064. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: September 26, 2020 at 11:53 PM (#5979090)
Last 10 NBA FINALS:

1.) LeBron James team
2.) LeBron James team
3.) LeBron James team
4.) LeBron James team
5.) LeBron James team
6.) LeBron James team
7.) LeBron James team
8.) LeBron James team
9.) LeBron James was hurt
10.) LeBron James team
   3122. tshipman Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:00 PM (#5979267)
it was a great adjustment by erik spoelstra.


The way he told his guys to start making three pointers after they missed a bunch the last game was very good coaching.

I wasn't on board with the miss three pointers strategy.
   3123. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:00 PM (#5979268)
Think this may be the most surprising finals team since Ewing Theory.
   3124. puck Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5979269)
The Heat are interesting. Lots of contributors, really good 3 point shooters.
   3125. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5979270)
The announcers have mentioned a couple of times that Iggy will be in his sixth straight final if/when Miami wins. After the Russell Celtics, how many players have done this?

As discussed on the last page, lebron had a streak of 9 in a row snapped last year.

Miami is a fun team. Should be a good Finals.
   3126. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:02 PM (#5979271)
I should have added, besides LeBron. Feel pretty silly not adding that in this question
   3127. JJ1986 Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:03 PM (#5979272)
I know Chauncey Billups had 6 straight conference finals.
   3128. spivey Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:03 PM (#5979273)
Bam and the wings seem like they can give Bron and AD trouble. It’ll be really interesting to watch.
   3129. tshipman Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:04 PM (#5979274)
Miami can't possibly try zone against LeBron and AD, can they? I feel like that would be suicidal.

538 has Boston at 20% to win the finals.


Nate's pretty sure the Boston/Houston matchup is going to come up here, just needs more time.
   3130. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:04 PM (#5979275)
Teams to reach The Finals a year after missing the playoffs since the NBA/ABA merger...

1977 Blazers
2002 Nets
2008 Celtics
2015 Cavs
2020 Lakers
2020 Heat
   3131. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:06 PM (#5979276)
Miami can't possibly try zone against LeBron and AD, can they? I feel like that would be suicidal.


Lakers have the 2 best players in the series, but the Heat have the next, what, 5? I dunno, not even totally sure who the third best guy on the lakers really is.

Thank God it's not Lakers Celtics.
   3132. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5979278)
How do people feel about the Celtics long-term? They struggled to beat a very game but limited Raptors team and now lose to a team that many think they are more talented than. They underachieved with Irving. Kemba Walker had a poor postseason. People are high on the Celtics but I only really like Tatum and Brown. That's a great start but I think they are going to need another star player. I don't think this team is good enough to be much better organically.


   3133. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5979279)
Great series between two likable teams.

I gotta ask: what is group economics?
   3134. puck Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5979280)
Last year Duncan Robinson made 10 3 pointers.
   3135. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:08 PM (#5979281)
Lakers-Heat 2020 NBA Finals:

G1: Sept. 30,  9 pm ET
G2: Oct. 2, 9 pm
G3: Oct. 4, 7:30 pm
G4: Oct.  6, 9 pm
G5*: Oct. 9, 9 pm
G6*:  Oct. 11, 7:30 pm
G7*: Oct. 13, 9 pm


Those start times are so late for the old guys on both teams.
   3136. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:14 PM (#5979282)
538.com gives the Heat a 74% shot to win the title.
   3137. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:17 PM (#5979283)
Those start times are so late for the old guys on both teams.


Don't forget us old guys watching!
   3138. tshipman Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:30 PM (#5979284)
Lakers have the 2 best players in the series, but the Heat have the next, what, 5? I dunno, not even totally sure who the third best guy on the lakers really is.


*probably* Danny Green, but not if he shoots like ####.
Next is Markieff or Caruso.
   3139. Rally Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:34 PM (#5979285)
With a name like Duncan Robinson, you should not be just a 3 point specialist. You should be a 7 foot, super athletic, super skilled big man playing for Popovich.
   3140. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 27, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5979287)
Don't forget us old guys watching!

I'm pretty sure Igudola is older than anyone who posts here; Harlem definitely is. Spo is also younger than everyone here.
   3141. tshipman Posted: September 27, 2020 at 11:00 PM (#5979293)
I think the disparity in depth is overstated, also.

"Best players" in the series
1. LeBron
2. AD
3. Jimmy
4. Bam
5. Dragic

After that it's just a bunch of guys who are difficult to differentiate. Are Tyler Herro, or Kelly Olynyk or Ancient Andre Iguodala really better than Danny Green, Dwight or KCP? For me, I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys play well or poorly in the series.

   3142. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 12:31 AM (#5979297)
Tim Reynolds @ByTimReynolds
We could have had a Finals in Miami and in Los Angeles. $*@&#)$)!$_)$

   3143. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 28, 2020 at 01:21 AM (#5979300)
I can't tell which team has match-up advantages, so I think that means the two teams match up well against each other.
   3144. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 01:45 AM (#5979302)
"M-----f-----s just got to care if we win or lose," Butler said.

   3145. NJ in NJ Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:28 AM (#5979310)
My initial instinct before digging into this is I think this is a toss up. The Heat have defenders that can slow down AD and Bron and beyond those two the Laker offense is built on a lot of prayers. Of course, I’m also fully bought in on the Laker defense (and Vogel) and think they can suffocate Miami. So, I’m expecting a rock right. Tie goes to the LeBron team *shrug*
   3146. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:42 AM (#5979312)
Well that was a really frustrating way to end it, but man I really enjoyed the Celtics season and like this current team a lot. They were a very helpful distraction to the horrorshow that is 2020.
   3147. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:53 AM (#5979313)
How do people feel about the Celtics long-term? They struggled to beat a very game but limited Raptors team and now lose to a team that many think they are more talented than. They underachieved with Irving. Kemba Walker had a poor postseason. People are high on the Celtics but I only really like Tatum and Brown. That's a great start but I think they are going to need another star player. I don't think this team is good enough to be much better organically.

I think this sort of undersells the Raptors series. If you think Toronto was just a regular season mirage, that's fine I guess, but they were the better regular season team and Boston was missing a starter in Hayward and still won the series. A lot of people had Toronto in the Finals entering the playoffs.

I will offer no excuses for the Miami loss, they just straight up should have won the series. But while I'm (extremely!) not interested in revisiting all the key moments, 5 of the 6 games were winnable. I would have felt pretty confident coming out of game 1, to use the most obvious example, if they had held on. But, you know, they didn't, so that's that. So I guess if the argument is that there was something structurally wrong with the team that prevented them from winning the close games in this series, that's fair, but I'm not sure I see that case.

So long story short I still feel good about this team. They have #### depth and that really showed against Toronto and Miami, but those things are fixable. They're good enough to be in the mix, as they have been for most of the past several seasons.
   3148. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:24 AM (#5979317)
Tie goes to the LeBron team *shrug*

This is generally my policy, too, so I'd lean Lakers.
   3149. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: September 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM (#5979346)
How do people feel about the Celtics long-term? They struggled to beat a very game but limited Raptors team and now lose to a team that many think they are more talented than. They underachieved with Irving. Kemba Walker had a poor postseason. People are high on the Celtics but I only really like Tatum and Brown. That's a great start but I think they are going to need another star player. I don't think this team is good enough to be much better organically.

This kinda mirrors my Tatum comment from a couple days ago, but I feel pretty good about them. They're the youngest team in the playoffs and the 5th best team in the league. I see a few potential paths to getting significantly better: (1) Tatum making a leap, (2) incremental improvement from all/most of the young guys in the rotation (Tatum, Brown, Williamses), or (3) Kemba or Hayward having a really good run offensively. I think the odds of one of those things happening in the next couple years are fairly high.

As for whether that's good enough to win it all, that largely depends on the rest of the league. Can one of the other top teams add another star? If not, given good health the Celtics should be in the mix for a title.
   3150. deleuze68 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 10:47 AM (#5979347)
I should have added, besides LeBron. Feel pretty silly not adding that in this question


James Jones, the only other in the room, sitting in the corner, meekly says, "What about me?"
   3151. NJ in NJ Posted: September 28, 2020 at 10:58 AM (#5979350)
I gotta ask: what is group economics?


GQ piece on why the guys who wore it chose to wear it. The short of it is that it's about black people with economic means investing in black businesses/communities and creating a sort of virtuous cycle.
   3152. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5979356)
The Finals are a really difficult series for me to evaluate.

1. Will Miami play zone? Miami's inverted 2-3 zone has been incredibly effective all season, including the playoffs. Miami has tweaked the zone to match every opponent so far. Against Giannis, they were highly effective by throwing helpers from unexpected places. Against Boston, they played up Tatum's worst tendencies to stick with the ball and exploited the lack of passing and skill at the big position. However, a key part of the zone is that it allows Miami to play otherwise very limited defenders in Herro, Robinson and Dragic, and protect them by limiting them to backline responsibilities and positioning.
2. On paper, playing zone against the Lakers is suicide. LeBron and AD are two of the most versatile offensive players in the league. It's hard to imagine that LeBron would be confused by a double team the same way Giannis was. Or that Anthony Davis would struggle to hit a FT jumper if left open there.
3. However, playing man with Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro on the court is also suicide. LeBron is the league's foremost matchup hunter, maybe even over Harden in the playoffs. The Heat will be playing two players at all times who cannot switch onto LeBron with two of Dragic, Robinson, Herro or Olynyk almost always sharing the court. I think Miami will play zone more often than not and give up a bad, but live-able points per possession out of the zone.

4. Will the Lakers play big? Mike D'Antoni called out Miami in the second round. The Heat only play one guy bigger than the Rockets. Are they a micro-ball team? Bam seemingly gives Javale and Dwight a guy they can guard. However, not really. Bam's best plays all come at the high post, where the Heat suck the big out into space and let Bam make good decisions. The Lakers have a natural counter with AD at center, but will they waste time with Dwight and Javale minutes before they realize that the matchups are better all the way around?
5. Who will make their 3s? Miami needs the three to be a weapon for them, but the Heat and Lakers have shot almost the same percentage in the playoffs (the Heat take 6 more per game).
6. Will the Lakers get on the glass? The Lakers were the top offensive rebounding team in the playoffs (excluding the quickly departed 76ers). The Heat are playing a single big, but have yet to be seriously challenged on the glass in the playoffs.

I think the Lakers should be favored fairly heavily because of the way Miami kind of has to play zone, but I am biased. Individual matchups matter a lot less with a zone team.
   3153. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2020 at 11:25 AM (#5979357)
I'm going Lakers in 6 but I have to say I'm mainly motivated by the fact that this Heat team ####### baffles me and I'm not ready to accept them as champions.
   3154. spivey Posted: September 28, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5979359)
I think Miami is likely to have a wrinkle. Spo and co are simply too good not to. I was wondering about box-and-1 on LeBron, or something. Though a lot of stuff really comes down to make-or-miss. If LeBron is shooting on the lower end of his range, you can play more zone, go under and otherwise handle LeBron screen/switch attempts in a way that can keep Herro, Robinson, etc. out on the floor. Miami tends to put it's longest and most physical wings at the top of the zone. I could see that helping limit LeBron's passing lanes and driving ability.
   3155. Willard Baseball Posted: September 28, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5979360)
3145. I don't think Miami really has anyone that can guard LBJ, unless it is Bam. Butler is a good defender, but LBJ is so much stronger than him. Lakers have multiple guys who can do things against the zone in the lane. If Miami plays a lot of zone, I think Lakers will go big...and maybe Miami wants that matchup, but not sure they score enough on the other end to make up for it.

The Lakers will have one really poor shooting night...otherwise, they win each game.

Lakers in 5.
   3156. spivey Posted: September 28, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5979361)
I just want a good series. I'll find positives out of either win. LeBron's legacy on the one hand, a team without a superstar winning a title is always fun on the other.
   3157. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5979371)
I think Miami is likely to have a wrinkle. Spo and co are simply too good not to. I was wondering about box-and-1 on LeBron, or something. Though a lot of stuff really comes down to make-or-miss. If LeBron is shooting on the lower end of his range, you can play more zone, go under and otherwise handle LeBron screen/switch attempts in a way that can keep Herro, Robinson, etc. out on the floor. Miami tends to put it's longest and most physical wings at the top of the zone. I could see that helping limit LeBron's passing lanes and driving ability.


Yeah, I think there's going to be a wrinkle for sure.

The problem with the junk defenses on LeBron is that AD is out there. It's not like Herro or Robinson can handle AD on the block ...
   3158. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: September 28, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5979379)
How do people feel about the Celtics long-term? They struggled to beat a very game but limited Raptors team and now lose to a team that many think they are more talented than. They underachieved with Irving. Kemba Walker had a poor postseason. People are high on the Celtics but I only really like Tatum and Brown. That's a great start but I think they are going to need another star player. I don't think this team is good enough to be much better organically.


I'd be very surprised if they're not in the annual mix to make the Finals for the next ~5 years. Brown and Tatum are good two-way players, and one of the top 2-3 duos in the East. Stevens is a good coach, maybe a tier below the very top guys, though.

Walker and Grabbem Handsy are still good, but their best days are probably in the past.
   3159. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 28, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5979380)
Walker and Grabbem Handsy are still good, but their best days are probably in the past.

I'm pretty biased, of course, but I'm with Votto. Brown and Tatum is a good start, especially if the passing Tatum showed off in the bubble stays. Kemba and Gravesend Habersham are going to get worse as they age, so their ceiling likely depends a lot on how well the rest of the team's young players develop. If one or two of Grant Williams/Timelord/Romeo Langford/Boston's first round picks this year develops it would go a long way to making them a more real title contender. I don't agree that they need a third star, but it would certainly go a long way towards making sure they are championship caliber going forwards. But the team is young and good, so it's hard to be too pessimistic. Their core duo is 22 and 23. Even with them aging off of the rookie salary scale that's an enviable foundation to build from.
   3160. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 28, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5979384)
when i ramble about some middling imminent free agent, i limit myself to guys who are 30 and under and mostly to less well known commodities. this is going to be an exception to that and on a guy who we tend to view negatively - low floor iq, subpar teammate, empty stats... hassan whiteside.

i have no idea what he's going to get paid next year - he led the league in blocks and offensive boards last year and averaged a point every other minute on efficient shooting... in part because he largely sticks to putbacks, rolling to the rim (which he's very good at) and post-ups (not always great for an offense, but he's solid here). if you're going to be a post up guy in 2020, you ought to also be a good passer - hassan is a terrible passer and can't dribble/drive. defensively, he's also real old school - he's turned into a pretty good post defender beyond the blocks but, despite good speed and decent quickness (and okay performance against bigs when they stray outside), isn't a guy you switch with. he's there to guard fives / be as close to the rim as possible and that's it.

there are two reasons i wrote this.
1) i've seen people say that he might get 15m next year. which -- that would surprise me but it only takes one. (did i mention he's from nc? hey there hornets. so is harrell, by the way, whose asking price must have plummeted.) i also saw a guess that he might get like 2/10 which is way too low for what he offers, imo - even though the replacement level for centers is high.
2) i might be alone on this, well, me and hassan, but he can actually shoot a little bit. if you wanted to try an alex len experiment with him, it could work. here's his career shooting percentages from various distances, sans one.
0-3 ft = 73.5% (66.7), 3-10 ft 45.7% (39.6), 10-16 ft 38.3% (41.6), long 2s: 40.0%* (40.4), threes: 8 for 25, 32.0% (35.8)
now, he's long been considered pretty good on short jumpers, you just don't want him thinking he can do more than that (and he's presumably far more open than the average other player when they shoot from distance) ... and taking him away from the hoop both eliminates his offensive strengths and exacerbates his limitations as a playmaker but - if he was in my system on more than a one-year deal - i'd have him work on threes.
big, big counter to this: only 61% from the line for his career (69% this season), including 45%! in 2018-19.

* he's been a better shooter in general in recent years, but particularly on long 2s, where he's now consistently a bit above league average on limited attempts.
   3161. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5979386)
Whiteside is an interesting player. Like, he's probably better than half the centers in the league, right?

That said:
1. He's terrible in the playoffs against a high number of teams. Borderline unplayable.
2. He only drops on defense.
3. He can't space the floor. Yeah, the percentages aren't terrible, but he doesn't take shots from those spots. 75% of his shots are inside 10 feet. Hassan is notorious for being one of the least hard working players in the NBA, so signing him and expecting him to change his game is a fool's errand.
4. His reputation around the league is so bad that he's probably actually a good value pickup.
   3162. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 28, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5979388)
Like, he's probably better than half the centers in the league, right?

Whiteside seems like a rich man's Enes Kanter, right? He's really good at the things he does well, and brings almost nothing to the table otherwise. If you have the roster to play him in spots where his skills are what you want and to get him off the floor otherwise, that's not a bad thing, but if he's your only good center that will get ugly fast, at least against some matchups. I can't imagine any team is going to throw 15m at him (doesn't mean it won't happen), as he has too many warts to pretend he's a plug-and-play solution at the 5.
   3163. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5979389)
Is he going to be happy to come off the bench? Because I wouldn't want to start him.
   3164. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5979393)
Whiteside seems like a rich man's Enes Kanter, right? He's really good at the things he does well, and brings almost nothing to the table otherwise. If you have the roster to play him in spots where his skills are what you want and to get him off the floor otherwise, that's not a bad thing, but if he's your only good center that will get ugly fast, at least against some matchups. I can't imagine any team is going to throw 15m at him (doesn't mean it won't happen), as he has too many warts to pretend he's a plug-and-play solution at the 5.


So ... consider Hassan Whiteside and Jerami Grant.

Whiteside was better by basically every advanced stat last year. He has a better track record for his career.

Jerami Grant is probably going to get 15 to 20 million in the offseason. Hassan is probably getting 10 million or less. If you are trying to win in the playoffs, Grant probably does more, but Hassan is much, much better to help you make the playoffs and will cost less.
   3165. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 28, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5979397)
Whiteside was better by basically every advanced stat last year. He has a better track record for his career.
I think this forum gives underrates Whiteside. However, he's 31 now, that big man athleticism isn't going to last forever, and I get the sense that when that starts slipping, he's going off the edge of a cliff. You don't want to be the team holding on to his contract when that happens, probably in 2022.
   3166. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: September 28, 2020 at 02:29 PM (#5979404)
As a matter of team-building philosophy, I think big men who are relatively spatially unaware (particularly with regard to heads-up rotations) put a pretty hard cap on how good your team can be with them on court, and in a way that is pointedly expoitable in the playoffs. I'm not sure how to rate Whiteside properly—he can dominate the rim in many specific contexts, and that adds up (especially over the course of the regular season), but he's such a solvable problem for a good team. I'd like him as a cheap bench guy, but a big part of that context is that I root for a team that has decent odds of going a few rounds into the playoffs, which accentuates his downsides.
   3167. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 28, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5979405)
The Lakers will have one really poor shooting night...otherwise, they win each game.
The Heat will probably have one really incredible shooting night as well.

Lakers in six.
   3168. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5979407)
Jerami Grant is probably going to get 15 to 20 million in the offseason. Hassan is probably getting 10 million or less. If you are trying to win in the playoffs, Grant probably does more, but Hassan is much, much better to help you make the playoffs and will cost less.
shiteside will be lucky to get more than the mini-MLE from someone.

there's no way that grant is worth 15-20 million.


noone has any money this summer. even without the world ending this year, meaning that teams will be more risk averse when handing out future contracts, nobody was rushing to clear cap room for big FAs this summer. the trickle down effect from that means players like garnt are going to get squeezed.
   3169. Rally Posted: September 28, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5979408)
Whiteside has the same strengths and weaknesses as Dwight Howard. If you can get a player like that cheap there are plenty of matchups where he can help you. If he's one of the big money players you build a team around though, you aren't going to have a very good team.

Looking up Howard I was surprised to see that he's in his first year back with the Lakers. For some reason it seemed like two seasons since he came back in a bench role. Probably because the season that is just concluding started for the Lakers last October. In the old world where people could actually interact in person.
   3170. puck Posted: September 28, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5979410)
5. Who will make their 3s? Miami needs the three to be a weapon for them, but the Heat and Lakers have shot almost the same percentage in the playoffs (the Heat take 6 more per game).


I had noticed Miami has been well below their regular season average (.379) in the playoffs (.357 overall, .323 in the Celtics series), which seems even more surprising given that 3 point shooting supposedly has been better in the bubble.


Is there a reason for this or would the Heat be more likely to regress to something more like their regular season percentage?

BTW, the Nuggets' were .359 regular season, .379 in the playoffs. Subtract Jamal Murray and the rest of the team was .358 in the playoffs. The Jazz shot .421 in the 1st round with Mitchell going 33 of 64. (Murray went 32 of 60, it's still hard to believe that series.)
   3171. puck Posted: September 28, 2020 at 02:52 PM (#5979411)
Looking at the Miami-Boston box, Crowder was 12-47. So he nearly tanked the Heat's numbers all by himself.
   3172. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5979414)
TJ McBride @TJMcBrideNBA
I had heard a lot from people in the Nuggets organization about Vlatko Cancar being ultra dedicated to the weight room but GOOD LORD VLAKTO.

pic.twitter.com/mQtWQmPNkp
   3173. Thok Posted: September 28, 2020 at 03:43 PM (#5979421)
The announcers have mentioned a couple of times that Iggy will be in his sixth straight final if/when Miami wins. After the Russell Celtics, how many players have done this?


Other than Russell-era Celtics and Lebron, the only player with a streak at least as long as Iggy is James Jones, who got that streak by playing Lebron's caddy.
   3174. Rally Posted: September 28, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5979423)
Is there a reason for this or would the Heat be more likely to regress to something more like their regular season percentage?


Take out the .323 against the Celtics, and the Heat were probably shooting to their normal average before this series. The Celtics are very good at perimeter defense, in the regular season only Toronto allowed a lower 3pt% than their .340.

Given how important 3 point shooting is, surprising that they won in 6 with that shooting. Bam is awesome.

Here's a question: Is Bam Abedayo really 6-9 and 255? He looks both longer and leaner than those numbers. Just watching him I would have guessed something like 6-11, 230.

6-9, 255 seems to me like a widebody, a Charles Oakley type. Though Oakley is listed on bbref at 6-8, 225. He was probably 225 as a college freshman.
   3175. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 28, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5979425)
Ha
   3176. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 03:54 PM (#5979426)
Take out the .323 against the Celtics, and the Heat were probably shooting to their normal average before this series. The Celtics are very good at perimeter defense, in the regular season only Toronto allowed a lower 3pt% than their .340.


In the conference finals, the Heat shot better on "tight" 3pers (35.2%) than they did on wide open 3pers (33.8%).

Variance is a much better explanation than the Boston defense. But you know, whatever.
   3177. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: September 28, 2020 at 03:57 PM (#5979427)
I think a couple of the most important questions for the Finals are:

(1) Can the Lakers get out in transition?
(2) Can the Heat have a big edge at the FT line?

LA has been able to run a lot in the playoffs. 18.5% of their possessions have been in transition, and that's where they're dialing up the offensive efficiency. Miami's transition D was a bit more stout during the regular season than anyone the Lakers have played thus far, at least in terms of limiting transition possessions.

On the other end, Miami's offense is at its best when they're living at the free throw line. They've run up big free throw advantages in each series. The Lakers play very physical and, at times, very foul-prone D, particularly when Dwight or JaVale is in the game. Whether that defense is generating excess steals (and thereby, transition opportunities) or excess fouls will have a major impact on how the series plays out.
   3178. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 28, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5979434)
Whiteside has the same strengths and weaknesses as Dwight Howard. If you can get a player like that cheap there are plenty of matchups where he can help you. If he's one of the big money players you build a team around though, you aren't going to have a very good team.

I think that this sums it up, though Whitehouse is younger, better, and able to play more minutes. And cheap, decent role playing centers aren't hard to find!

Oh man, if Enes Kanter could defend like Whitehouse does, his career looks very different.

tship: Agree on 2 and 4. Think 1 is maybe overstated*. Then again, I cling to the possibility that big lineups can still work more than most people do.

On 1/playoffs - I think you could separate this into played badly in actual playoffs (was good once, bad twice - more minutes in that one good year than the other two... but partly because he was struggling) versus how does he profile for playoff play, where teams play smaller, plan more, are more versatile/flexible. With the latter, he's definitely vulnerable, but I think part of his issues this year were that he's not better than Nurkic (and you ought not play them together unless you're really desperate) and that they were desperate enough to try that sometimes (and being best used as a drop guy, he fumbled and plodded through rotations and whatnot).

On 3 - he hasn't spaced the floor, I think he could space the floor. I know he has wanted to shoot from the outside but his coaches have shut that down - I remember he and Spoelstra going back and forth on this once upon a time. It is exceedingly reasonable to trust Spoelstra on this. :) But I think the shot looks okay and he could offer enough of a cursory threat that you'd have to respect it - which matters if you don't want him played off the floor. I don't think he'd ever become a good outside shooter. As to trying to improve his outside shot, there's a lot of types of different types of lazy - I wouldn't be surprised if he was willing to put time in on his outside shot.

Anyway, I mentioned him because I think his career is weird/he's interesting and he has the potential to be a pretty good buy for a team. I certainly wouldn't break the bank for him and I think he only work for certain teams/systems (and probably particularly less good teams - who should maybe be spending minutes and money on younger people), but he could easily be a free agent that delivers a lot more value than he costs.

----------------------------------

Given how important 3 point shooting is, surprising that they won in 6 with that shooting. Bam is awesome.

Totally. As to his height, the NBA shifting from in shoes to barefoot heights complicates things, right? Anyway, in my head he's 6-10.

----------------------------------

I loved that joke/tweet, Moses.
   3179. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5979438)
Anyway, I mentioned him because I think his career is weird/he's interesting and he has the potential to be a pretty good buy for a team. I certainly wouldn't break the bank for him and I think he only work for certain teams/systems (and probably particularly less good teams - who should maybe be spending minutes and money on younger people), but he could easily be a free agent that delivers a lot more value than he costs.


I think we agree more than we disagree here.

If I were Charlotte or Detroit, I'd prefer Whiteside to Grant at the same price tag, and I think Whiteside will get a lot less than Grant. Christian Wood is going to get a lot of money this offseason, and I suspect Whiteside may outperform that contract as well.

I don't think I'd look at him on a long term deal, or on a team that has contention aspirations. Despite their comparative hole at center, I wouldn't look at him as Boston or Houston, for example. That said, he has a place in the NBA, and he can be valuable in the right role.
   3180. JJ1986 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 05:22 PM (#5979448)
Doc Rivers is out
   3181. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5979450)
I guess Kawhi thought it was time to make a move. Ty Lue is the obvious guy?
   3182. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 28, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5979453)
3179 - oh, i thought we mostly agreed as well, tship.
-----
doc: wow
   3183. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 28, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5979455)
I think a bunch of us thought he was gonna lose his job as game 7 was slipping away from them. Considering how much time has passed (honestly, not that much but time goes by much slower these days), I had forgotten and just assumed he'd be back.
   3184. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 28, 2020 at 05:50 PM (#5979456)
Athletic (not Shams, and in a Celtics article proposing the C's trade Going Homeward for him - ha!) saying Oladipo wants out of Indy?
   3185. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 28, 2020 at 06:05 PM (#5979458)
I've seen chatter on tweeter dot com about Oladipo and Turner both wanting out of Indy. Also seen Dipo linked to a potential Garbanzo Hayseed trade, but I'm skeptical that trading their injury-prone do-it-all wing for a similarly injury-prone wing (but with soft-tissue injuries) who struggled to coexist with other ballhandlers is a move the Celtics would make.

As for the Clips, I can see the logic for moving on from Doc, but boy they better nail the hire.
   3186. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 06:18 PM (#5979462)
I think a bunch of us thought he was gonna lose his job as game 7 was slipping away from them. Considering how much time has passed (honestly, not that much but time goes by much slower these days), I had forgotten and just assumed he'd be back.


Crazy stat that I saw:
Frank Vogel has had as many playoff series wins in this year with Los Angeles than Doc Rivers has had in his entire tenure with the Clippers.

As for the Clips, I can see the logic for moving on from Doc, but boy they better nail the hire.


I joked about it above, but I assume this is coming after Ballmer met with Kawhi/PG.
   3187. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 28, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5979464)
I assume this is coming after Ballmer met with Kawhi/PG.

Oh, there's no way it isn't, but even if done with their blessing a clunky coaching fit and underwhelming next season would make a PG13 and/or Kawhi opt-out pretty likely, and hoooo boy that would get ugly fast given the way all of the Clips' eggs are in their current basket.
   3188. Tin Angel Posted: September 28, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5979466)
Marc J. Spears@MarcJSpears

New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers have already reached out to former Clippers head coach Doc Rivers in regards to their head coach openings, sources told @TheUndefeated
   3189. spivey Posted: September 28, 2020 at 06:54 PM (#5979467)
Kawhi wanting to play near home helps with the likelihood on him leaving. I sense from reports back in his Spurs days that he thinks he can contend anywhere with almost any supporting cast, and that’s not entirely wrong.

Indiana needs to figure out their coach situation. There’s a few good ones out there. I think they can find a coach they can sell to Oladipo and Turner. Also, Turner isn’t good enough to demand out. I say that as a UT alum who still thinks he has untapped potential.
   3190. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:02 PM (#5979468)
   3191. tshipman Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:13 PM (#5979469)
That's not your best work, Stiggles.
   3192. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:38 PM (#5979472)
That's not your best work, Stiggles.
i just want it to be over.
   3193. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:48 PM (#5979473)
Why not flip Horford for Oladipo instead and sign a stud like Nerlens Noel as a FA?
   3194. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:57 PM (#5979475)
Why not flip Horford for Oladipo instead and sign a stud like Nerlens Noel as a FA?
i feel like the window to reacquire nerlens noel has passed.

but yeah, sure, i'll take oladipo for horford.
   3195. Thok Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:11 PM (#5979476)
I presume the bare minimum for a Stiggles trade is something like this.
   3196. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:12 PM (#5979477)
I presume the bare minimum for a Stiggles trade is something like this.
i'm not sure why zhaire smith is involved.
   3197. Thok Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:20 PM (#5979479)
I was going to say for salary cap purposes, but it apparently works without Zhaire Smith. So instead I'm going to say it's so the league front offices don't riot in response.
   3198. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:52 PM (#5979480)
I was going to say for salary cap purposes, but it apparently works without Zhaire Smith. So instead I'm going to say it's so the league front offices don't riot in response.
nice save, heh.
   3199. aberg Posted: September 28, 2020 at 11:59 PM (#5979490)
I think Doc would be the best choice for any of Philly, Houston, or New Orleans. I'm admittedly higher on him than most because I value his ability to keep teams motivated and engaged (whatever happened with PG notwithstanding).

I also figured the move meant they're promoting Lue, which is fine.

I like Turner or Dipo as Wolves targets. Turner, especially, would be a nice partner for KAT with his weaknesses.

There were some very deep rumors about KAT wanting out this week. The timing doesn't really make sense. But if it has to happen, he really hasn't lived up to his potential and could presumably return a lot. I trust Rosas to rebuild more than I face any other MN front office, so maybe it wouldn't be the worst thing.

My pick is Lakers in 5 or 6, but I agree with whoever said earlier that Miami just might be a lot better than I think. Butler could live at the line and their offense gets them better shots than it seems like they should get. Can LA's defense negate that?
   3200. spivey Posted: September 29, 2020 at 08:33 AM (#5979504)
Pelton had a good piece about the firing of Doc. It highlighted that in the Denver series, the Clippers actually got better shots in games 5-7 than they did in games 1-4, they just missed more of them. And Denver's shot quality was about the same, they just started making way more. His point, which I think is a fair one, is that the coach isn't necessarily to blame for that.

Doc's lack of playoff success in the LA I think had to matter at some point, and this seems like a reasonable point. He had successful playoff runs in Boston, though that was a really long time ago, and in a lot of ways a very different era of basketball.
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