The first two decades of the 21st century were full of examples of men—think of Steve Jobs—who acquired a kind of paradoxically oracular authority as the leaders of hyper-rationalist fields. Something similar happened in sports. To many outside observers, “the data” became a type of secret knowledge, not really all that different from the “scout’s intuition” and “experience” that preceded it. It was understood to be more scientific; the narratives it generated were maybe somewhat less accessible, but this was a small price to pay, because it was newer and (presumably) better. And so the interpreters of the data were able to acquire a notoriety and an authority that were based less on rigorous understanding of their methods and more on the perceived ingenuity and prestige of their new code.

On the field, analytics and its various innovations were wildly successful without quite overturning our core understanding of sports. Teams that originated analytics-based innovations—Beane’s As, with their obsession with market inefficiencies and on-base percentage; Daryl Morey’s Rockets, with their obsession with 3-point shooting and free throws—tended to outperform expectations but not win championships. Later, teams deploying the same principles, but with more expensive and/or star-driven rosters (the Red Sox, the Golden State Warriors), would win titles. Advanced statistical analysis transformed the way we think about sports on many levels; on the other hand, there is no market inefficiency quite like having LeBron James.

Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
The #sixers have added Dave Joerger as an assistant coach. What has he shown in his previous stops in Memphis and Sacramento? Where did those tenures go wrong? Thoughts from @rich_hofmann and myself: theathletic.com/2141579/2020/1…

8. Davis

3. Durant
4. Curry

Fair about the injuries. I'm probably assuming more health than is warranted.

2) That being said, have there been any years that the draft looked weak, but certain players adapted to the NBA far better than anticipated and became major stars that went on to be key parts of championship teams? Are there any players in this year's draft that might surprise, or I guess a better question would be are there any potential draftees that you see as being especially good fits if they land with a specific team?

but 2013 also had giannis, gobbert, oladipo, noel, okafor, mccollum and steven adams, and they are all high-level contributors.

Have you looked at the guards yet, 57i66135? I was hoping to get your thoughts on Kira Lewis vs. Cole Anthony.

who is most likely to be a lock for this type of list on a year or two

Here's a follow-up question- of guys not really discussed so far, who is most likely to be a lock for this type of list on a year or two? I'd have SGA high on that list. Maybe ayton.

Now, I am willing to concede that I might be wrong. For those who think Curry is a top-5 guy, what are the expectations for the Warriors in 2021 assuming a healthy 2021 season from Curry and Klay? I don't think the Warriors are legit title contenders but I also don't think Draymond is nearly as good a player as he was in 2015 and 2016.

About 90% of the minutes that these three played in 2019, Durant also played and they were a +15.8. In the 140 minutes they played without Durant, they were much more neutral (close to 1-2 with just some rough math in my head). Not a huge sample.

The Bucks next year are fascinating to me.

Do they try to make their team more playoffs-proof? Is Bledsoe gone? Does Giannis start to mail it in a bit on defense after winning back to back MVPs?

I could believe anything between 45 and 65 wins.

3) Do early projections for next year's draft indicate a significantly better class than this year? Is the Ws pick from Minnesota next year likely to be more valuable than their pick this year?

I think that the Warriors, with Wiggins -- Andrew Wiggins -- as maybe their third best player have an out of the playoffs downside risk that's kind of high?

This is kinda my point in 3838 though; it's too early to worry about this until we know what that roster will look like.

Wiggins is an above average starter.

On actual performance to date? I have to file a request to show your work on this one! It's totally possible that my sense of the average starter is off, for instance. But if you ask me what he's been good at, to date, I would say nothing, and mean that literally.

Wiggins has had a positive +/- every year since his rookie year.

Okay, but on truly horrific teams with no bench. When he's on the court they're a minus, despite sharing all those minutes with their only good player in Towns.

He's a bad defender, and he's a mediocre efficiency scorer, but he's not a bad player.

Those guys can shoot and can be put in positions where they can succeed playing a specific role. Wiggins has shown no ability to be even an average shooter for a wing, to date, despite his willingness to take alllllll the shots. KCP and Green have also shown way more defensively than he has at this point in his career. I just don't see it, watching him or looking at his numbers.

I don't think Middleton is a top 10 player, and so he's worse than the normal #2 on a title winner

Middleton needs to be better in the playoffs, sure,

Wiggins for his career is at 41% from the corners.

KCP is at 40.2%
Danny Green is at 42%.

So much of player performance for guys who aren't LeBron is just context, coaching and effort. Next year will be a big one for Wiggins to see if he can thrive in a better ecosystem with better coaching and a smaller role.

Maybe Bradley Beal?

#2 overall pick, + Wiggins and his matching contract for some superstar player who is actually worth the money. Maybe Bradley Beal?

It is hard to find someplace for Wiggins. Man.

So much of player performance for guys who aren't LeBron is just context, coaching and effort. Next year will be a big one for Wiggins to see if he can thrive in a better ecosystem with better coaching and a smaller role.

his toolbox makes him overqualified for a #4

Straight up for Al Horford?

Where did Wiggins go wrong? Folks here in the Fall 2014 threads were gushing over him.

Short version- unfulfilled potential.

And after that series, it was Fertitta who, according to MacMahon, pushed for the 2019 blockbuster that sent out Chris Paul—the All-Star point guard who teamed with Harden on the 65-17 Rockets team that had the KD-era Warriors facing elimination before a strained right hamstring changed everything—in favor of Russell Westbrook.

“That trade was made because Tilman Fertitta wanted it made—he thought Chris Paul’s contract was the worst that he’d ever seen, in business or sports—and because James Harden wanted it made,” MacMahon told Lowe on Thursday. “Once Westbrook became available, they saw an opportunity that Harden and Fertitta wanted to pounce on, and they pounced on that.”

Is there anything in Daryl Morey's track record/public statements that indicates this is a move he would have ever made of his own volition?

Have you looked at the guards yet, 57i66135? I was hoping to get your thoughts on Kira Lewis vs. Cole Anthony.

Edit: Entries three through five here are pretty hilarous.

Is there anything in Daryl Morey's track record/public statements that indicates this is a move he would have ever made of his own volition?

That trade was made because Tilman Fertitta wanted it made—he thought Chris Paul’s contract was the worst that he’d ever seen, in business or sports

I listened to a lot of NBA podcasts over the weekend, where I heard both an argument as to who was better Hield or Duncan Robinson (hosts were split here) and a trade idea I pitched upthread (Nets dumping Prince to save money). I felt heard...

Maybe this is hot take, maybe it isn't, but to me Jabari and Wiggins failed for somewhat similar reasons. Which is work ethic/desire to get better.

There's so much growth usually needed to go from rookie to all-star and then again from all-star to to superstar, that there's always going to be some error. But Wiggins and Jabari really both seem to have no interest really committing to learn the art of being a good (or passable) defender.

I've come to feel like this is probably the single biggest predictor in development. Of course, we're so far removed as fans, that we often can't evaluate it, at least not until a pretty big pattern has emerged.